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CNNSI's view on Colangelo's plan in wake of Gay Deal

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  • CNNSI's view on Colangelo's plan in wake of Gay Deal

    http://nba.si.com/2013/01/31/rudy-ga...2_a9&eref=sihp

    When Rudy Gay arrives in Toronto, he’ll bring with him a proven track record as a scorer, a fairly recognizable name and a contract so burdensome it has become an inextricable part of Gay’s standing as a basketball player. There’s a cogent reason, after all, that the Grizzlies were willing to part with Gay for a collection of modest supporting parts; the next two seasons will see his contract bloat from $16.5 million to $17.9 million to $19.3 million, the kind of salary that becomes untenable when strapped to a player unworthy of even All-Star consideration. Gay is a talent, and Raptors general manager Bryan Colangelo has made a play for potential at only the cost of Ed Davis and Jose Calderon’s expiring contract. Yet in this case he also seems to be getting a bit ahead of himself from a team construction standpoint, thus crippling the Raptors’ options by way of his own decision-making momentum.

    Colangelo, it seems, cannot be stopped — or at least can’t seem to stop himself once he gets on a roll. One move leads to another which justifies a third and which necessitates one more, all executed without the bother of spending discretion or patience. His managerial style simply strips a team of its brakes, which for a rebuilding franchise is more than a mere inconvenience. By racing through the roster-building process, Colangelo quickly smashes a mediocre roster into the salary cap and luxury tax lines, two thresholds that dramatically limit the means through which teams can better themselves. The very process of improvement requires a delicacy of timing that Colangelo just doesn’t seem to grasp, as he racks up the kinds of contracts that only seem to work against the Raptors’ best interests.


    In that sense, the acquisition of Gay is only the latest in a long line of moves that began with a five-year, $50 million extension for Andrea Bargnani. That initial blunder was then exacerbated by a stubborn refusal to trade his perennial disappointment of a franchise centerpiece, and his rejection of a more thorough rebuild following Chris Bosh’s departure in free agency. From there, mid-level(ish) deals for Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, and Landry Fields — which may have made sense independently, but together make up about 28 percent of Toronto’s room under the cap — only stacked atop Toronto’s other considerable salary commitments. Yet perhaps no single move was more declarative than the Raptors’ preemptive offer to DeMar DeRozan, a decent enough player and positive personality that will be (over)paid $9.5 million annually through 2017. Once Colangelo had committed so much to so limited a core, this kind of gambit was to be expected. The Raptors had amassed enough salary that Calderon’s expiring contract wouldn’t create enough cap space for Toronto to reinvent itself, thus all but ensuring that Colangelo would trade away his starting point guard in any move that brought a decent basketball return.

    And by all means, this trade accomplishes that much. Gay may not make much sense lining up opposite DeRozan on the wing, nor does he have the kind of skill set that would make for straightforward chemistry with point guard Kyle Lowry. But behind the many criticisms of Gay’s game is a consistent productivity highlighted by an ability to hit difficult shots. That trait extends well beyond showmanship, and could provide real value to a team that’s been atrocious in closing games and creating offense in difficult spots this season.

    That Gay almost goes out of his way to attempt those difficult looks — mostly on long, contested, doomed, two-point jumpers — is another matter entirely. There’s still something to be said about the player and potential underneath all the decision-making baggage. Even at 26, Gay still has a chance to self-actualize, as his skills and attributes suggest a player far better than the one slumping to a below-league-average PER this season. Gay doesn’t have the same broad, do-it-all arsenal that characterizes the NBA’s best wing players, but I see no reason why a focused scorer with this kind of athleticism, ball control, and touch couldn’t make more out of the opportunities presented him. Gay’s offensive inefficiencies nag at both his individual potential and that of his team, but it’s at least understandable how Colangelo might be tantalized by visions of what a fully realized Gay would be able to provide.

    But with Calderon gone, Toronto now badly needs the kinds of shooters and ball-movers that could best facilitate Lowry’s work as a drive-and-kick engine. Instead, the Raptors will settle for two wings that can’t stretch out to the three-point line and tend to produce most consistently when in deliberate offensive roles. Neither is ultimately effective enough to validate such prominent positioning, and therein lies one of the many problems involved with banking on this particular duo. The Raptors have pinned more than $27 million of their cap room over the next two seasons on Gay and DeRozan alone, and though neither is necessarily selfish, both have redundant, scoring-specific games. Because of that, they don’t simply need to develop for this acquisition to make any kind of sense for the Raptors — they need to evolve along different trajectories that could in turn make them more complementary teammates.

    Or, DeRozan or Gay could at least become tradeable enough that upstart rookie Terrence Ross could eventually take one of their places. But that’s neither here nor there, since Landry Fields and Alan Anderson were already stealing minutes away from Ross before this deal went down, and Gay’s arrival could well bury the most promising young Raptor in the depth chart. There’s a rotational justification that goes into validating all of these lucrative moves, and in the short term it would seem that Ross may be denied the opportunities that would otherwise facilitate his growth. In that way, Ross, not unlike the Raptors, appears stuck.

    Behind the massive paychecks drawn by their recently extended and acquired wings of the future, the Raptors have $72.2 million committed next season — though that number will undoubtedly be slashed to $67.6 million when Toronto amnesties the contextually useless Linas Kleiza. That still leaves this team a rookie-scale deal and change away from luxury tax territory despite being poised for a .500 record, and with neither the flexibility necessary to make creative moves nor the expendable assets needed to make simple ones.

    In fairness to the big picture, we haven’t yet seen the deal that is sure to come in the aftermath of this one. Andrea Bargnani’s trade value may be at an all-time low, but Gay’s arrival only reinforces the need to trade him away. It would be hard to find a big with a style less agreeable to Gay’s, and Toronto’s success in Bargnani’s absence has likely made critics of even his most defiant supporters. That Ed Davis — the young big slotted to take Bargnani’s place — is gone hardly matters at this point; the Raptors will move forward with Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas as core members of their growing lineup while Bargnani’s exodus inches closer and closer.

    Of course, Colangelo may be forced to take back some mess of equivalent, long-term salary to unload the all-offense big man that Toronto has done so well without. With a roster that is (as of now) salary capped through 2015, one can already guess how that endeavor progresses. Toronto’s mismanagement rolls from one move to the next, making Gay’s cap-crippling addition only a transition. Next comes Bargnani’s potentially costly departure. Then the ensuing move to resolve whatever issues arrive on the wing. Then a decision with regard to Lowry’s long-term future in Toronto. Then another desperation move, and another lateral trade, and another ill-fated attempt at improvement — all inevitabilities set in motion long ago, and sustained by a runaway plan deprived of even the slightest restraint.

    There are no easy outs, save one: With the Raptors’ momentum barreling out of control, might it be time for a new conductor?
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

  • #2
    Scary thought.
    "deals for Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, and Landry Fields — which may have made sense independently, but together make up about 28 percent of Toronto’s room under the cap"
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

    Comment


    • #3
      This trade IMO can go either way. A lot depends on the play of Lowry to tell you the truth. If he can be a consistent improvement over Calderon, then (even tho everyone loves Jose) we will have a pg and wing who can defend their positions. I think JV will be able to soon as well. In theory, this could be the best team we've had in years. (Assuming bc can unload one of the wing players an bargs as well)

      At the same time, if gay and Lowry play poorly, then we will be screwed for all the reasons above.

      Comment


      • #4
        If one reads or disagrees with any of this. Understand this one paragraph among all others

        Of course, Colangelo may be forced to take back some mess of equivalent, long-term salary to unload the all-offense big man that Toronto has done so well without. With a roster that is (as of now) salary capped through 2015, one can already guess how that endeavor progresses. Toronto’s mismanagement rolls from one move to the next, making Gay’s cap-crippling addition only a transition. Next comes Bargnani’s potentially costly departure. Then the ensuing move to resolve whatever issues arrive on the wing. Then a decision with regard to Lowry’s long-term future in Toronto. Then another desperation move, and another lateral trade, and another ill-fated attempt at improvement — all inevitabilities set in motion long ago, and sustained by a runaway plan deprived of even the slightest restraint.

        There are no easy outs, save one: With the Raptors’ momentum barreling out of control, might it be time for a new conductor?
        But the final sentence is dead wrong. Not because Toronto shouldn't replace Colangelo (they should have years ago), its because with what he's done here, even replacing him is not an easy out. Its just a good first step.

        Comment


        • #5
          The article seems a bit over the top to me.

          I'm not sure I would have done this trade, but without knowing how the Bargnani era will end, I really think it's impossible to grade this deal.

          I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Moving a wing and Bargnani should be able to help solidify the PG position and perhaps garner a pick. And hopefully, when Jonas comes back, the departure of Ed Davis will be less felt.

          And who knows? Maybe Rogers and Bell have told management that it's time to spend. Just look at the Blue Jays as proof.
          Walking like I'm already there.

          Comment


          • #6
            Great article.

            Colangelo seems to make decisions almost exclusively in a vacuum. The Gay deal is a great example of this. While the concept of getting him at the cost of Calderon/Davis seems quite reasonable at first, when put in the context of the big picture "rebuild" it's hard to see it as anything else than a panic move to save BC's job.

            I find it difficult to see the plan here. This trade pushes the team to the salary cap brink, so the options for improving the team are severely limited. There is no first rounder this year, and the team just used it's two biggest trade chips in this deal. Despite Derozan's improved play this season, there's still a large portion of people that feel he will be overpaid when his extension kicks in this summer so it's hard to see many teams parting with a major asset to get their hands on him. The dreams of getting anything remotely tangible for Bargnani seem to diminish daily. Ross & JV are the two players on the current roster that could improve drastically from internally - but one of them just saw their minutes majorly squeezed with the arrival of Gay.

            Within the last 9 months alone, BC has: drafted a wing (Ross), signed another for $20 million over 3 years (Fields), extended another for $40 million over 4 years (Derozan) and now has traded for one making over $54 million over the next two a half seasons (Gay). All moves are justifiable when looking at them independently but as a whole they seem redundant and foolish. The team has increased their ceiling marginally but has sacrificed nearly all of their future flexibility to do so.
            Last edited by Fully; Thu Jan 31, 2013, 10:12 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Fully wrote: View Post
              Great article.

              Colangelo seems to make decisions almost exclusively in a vacuum. The Gay deal is a great example of this. While the concept of getting him at the cost of Calderon/Davis seems quite reasonable at first, when put in the context of the big picture "rebuild" it's hard to see it as anything else than a panic move to save BC's job.
              I find it difficult to see the plan here. This trade pushes the team to the salary cap brink, so the options for improving the team are severely limited. There is no first rounder this year, and the team just used it's two biggest trade chips in this deal. Despite Derozan's improved player this season, there's still a large portion of people that feel he will be overpaid when his extension kicks in this summer so it's hard to see many teams parting with a major asset to get their hands on him. The dreams of getting anything remotely tangible for Bargnani seem to diminish daily. Ross & JV are the two players on the current roster that could improve drastically from internally - but one of them just saw their minutes drastically squeezed with the arrival of Gay.

              Within the last 9 months alone, BC has: drafted a wing (Ross), signed another for $20 million over 3 years (Fields), extended another for $40 million over 4 years (Derozan) and now has traded for one making over $54 million over the next two a half seasons (Gay). All moves are justifiable when looking at them in independently but as a whole they seem redundant and foolish. The team has increased their ceiling marginally but has sacrificed nearly all of their future flexibility to do so.
              Agreed. For a team that clearly has lots to do before it reaches top 4 (in the East mind you), we now have very little flexibility to do anything and few assets. Short term may be beneficial, but even that isn't a sure thing with the overlap between Gay and Demar. Long term we seem like a rudderless ship....with a blind captain (BC)....who thinks he is William Shatner....and on a plane....
              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

              Comment


              • #8
                Fully wrote: View Post
                Great article.

                Colangelo seems to make decisions almost exclusively in a vacuum. The Gay deal is a great example of this. While the concept of getting him at the cost of Calderon/Davis seems quite reasonable at first, when put in the context of the big picture "rebuild" it's hard to see it as anything else than a panic move to save BC's job.

                I find it difficult to see the plan here. This trade pushes the team to the salary cap brink, so the options for improving the team are severely limited. There is no first rounder this year, and the team just used it's two biggest trade chips in this deal. Despite Derozan's improved player this season, there's still a large portion of people that feel he will be overpaid when his extension kicks in this summer so it's hard to see many teams parting with a major asset to get their hands on him. The dreams of getting anything remotely tangible for Bargnani seem to diminish daily. Ross & JV are the two players on the current roster that could improve drastically from internally - but one of them just saw their minutes drastically squeezed with the arrival of Gay.

                Within the last 9 months alone, BC has: drafted a wing (Ross), signed another for $20 million over 3 years (Fields), extended another for $40 million over 4 years (Derozan) and now has traded for one making over $54 million over the next two a half seasons (Gay). All moves are justifiable when looking at them in independently but as a whole they seem redundant and foolish. The team has increased their ceiling marginally but has sacrificed nearly all of their future flexibility to do so.
                +1...way to sum it all up perfectly. This is now the team we're pretty much stuck with for 3 years....of course after whatever Bargs trade happens. We have "secured" the SF position....but now the PF one is a glaring hole (Amir is still ideally a 3rd big), and PG is hardly secure as I don't think anyone is 100% sold on Lowry (definitely believe he deserves a shot though) and we have no backup, which is clearly bad given how injury-prone Lowry gets with his style of play. Basically, any real improvement will depend on the development of JV and Ross. So why make such a burdensome financial commitment so soon?

                Make no mistake, this is a high-risk, low-reward move....not a high-rish, high-reward one....Really, looking at our roster, does anyone believe we'll be competitive with Miami, Chicago, NYK, Indiana and even Brooklyn???? We'll have the payroll of a top 4 seed, and probably at best make it up to the 6th or maybe 5th seed....

                Comment


                • #9
                  Fully wrote: View Post
                  Great article.

                  Colangelo seems to make decisions almost exclusively in a vacuum. The Gay deal is a great example of this. While the concept of getting him at the cost of Calderon/Davis seems quite reasonable at first, when put in the context of the big picture "rebuild" it's hard to see it as anything else than a panic move to save BC's job.

                  I find it difficult to see the plan here. This trade pushes the team to the salary cap brink, so the options for improving the team are severely limited. There is no first rounder this year, and the team just used it's two biggest trade chips in this deal. Despite Derozan's improved play this season, there's still a large portion of people that feel he will be overpaid when his extension kicks in this summer so it's hard to see many teams parting with a major asset to get their hands on him. The dreams of getting anything remotely tangible for Bargnani seem to diminish daily. Ross & JV are the two players on the current roster that could improve drastically from internally - but one of them just saw their minutes majorly squeezed with the arrival of Gay.

                  Within the last 9 months alone, BC has: drafted a wing (Ross), signed another for $20 million over 3 years (Fields), extended another for $40 million over 4 years (Derozan) and now has traded for one making over $54 million over the next two a half seasons (Gay). All moves are justifiable when looking at them independently but as a whole they seem redundant and foolish. The team has increased their ceiling marginally but has sacrificed nearly all of their future flexibility to do so.
                  I am looking forward to see what happens next. Your bold point is spot on assuming things stay as they are. I hope and pray they don't.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Once again, I find maybe the most disappointing thing of this whole deal that it seems to suggest good faith from the board, and that BC is going to be kept around for another 3-4 years....

                    I'm usually not one to jump on him, or GMs in general, but at this point his record in TO speaks for itself. Too many bad contracts, too many reactionary decisions...no plan, no focus on the future, and an average eye, at best, for evaluating talent...

                    If Bargs needs to be traded just for a change, the same I think can be said of BC as a GM....really, it's all too bad.

                    *Note: I realize he could quickly change my mind if he swings another, better deal in terms of securing the future of this team....but now he basically only has Bargs to work with as the core of any deal...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                      Once again, I find maybe the most disappointing thing of this whole deal that it seems to suggest good faith from the board, and that BC is going to be kept around for another 3-4 years....

                      I'm usually not one to jump on him, or GMs in general, but at this point his record in TO speaks for itself. Too many bad contracts, too many reactionary decisions...no plan, no focus on the future, and an average eye, at best, for evaluating talent...

                      If Bargs needs to be traded just for a change, the same I think can be said of BC as a GM....really, it's all too bad.

                      *Note: I realize he could quickly change my mind if he swings another, better deal in terms of securing the future of this team....but now he basically only has Bargs to work with as the core of any deal...
                      I think it says his 3rd year option is a given and we'll wait and see what happens. Realistically speaking, Gay could be gone in 1 or 2 seasons...... and so could Colangelo.

                      I think there is more going to happen so I'm pretty indifferent right now.... but I am excited I will never have to watch DeRozan try and create a game winning shot off the dribble again.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                        Really, looking at our roster, does anyone believe we'll be competitive with Miami, Chicago, NYK, Indiana and even Brooklyn???? We'll have the payroll of a top 4 seed, and probably at best make it up to the 6th or maybe 5th seed....
                        I think the team's ceiling is the Joe Johnson era Hawks. Small improvements year after year as chemistry builds and the roster stays the same, but not enough talent to really break through and too little payroll flexibility to do anything about it.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          BC can't be done. Rudy has to be the center piece for this team moving forward. SO now the build starts around him? So we need a back up pg, and 3 point shooter, and a bulky center. Maybe we can get Maynor, bring back Kapono, and go after Jefferson? Hahahaha oh gad, the gong show continues....
                          Welp, that sucked.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Wow, talk about writing in a vacuum. I appreciate the glass half empty attitude but at least acknowledge there's some f*cking water in the glass. This is a little ridiculous. Gay is having a down year because Memphis's entire philosophy is to pound it inside to their bigs and then Gay ends up being relegated to a spot up shooter which is not his strength. He's a cutter and slasher extraordinaire...

                            Let's acknowledge that we have one of the most athletic teams in the NBA. That Calderon was the wrong half court offence running point guard for the new identity. That Lowry running this offence on the fast break is going to create havoc for other teams. You want an uptempo fun team to watch...we've got it. No question.

                            Does Rudy Gay have an onerous contract? Hell yeah...and how else were we going to get a name? I hear Lebron is just pining to come to Toronto. Do you remember the snort of derision that Dwayne Wade gave when he was asked if he would come to Toronto to join Chris Bosh?

                            Colangelo has challenges that other GM's don't. Period. Has he made some egregious mistakes? Hell yeah...is it time for him to go? If after a month of this, and the other moves supposedly coming, we're not markedly better than we were, then absolutely...and he knows it.

                            We just got a marquis SF for a point guard who's very good (I'm going to miss you Jose) but his numbers were inflated this year because he started as the schedule got soft. Same thing with Davis. We traded when their trade value was at it's absolute highest...and we filled a position that we've been hankering for for years.

                            I just find it hilarious that all these pundits who couldn't tell you what the capital of f*cking Canada is all of a sudden take notice when we get a player that's really good. And boy are they pissed. They are raving as if somebody went in to their house and stole their Michael Jordan autographed jersey.

                            Instead of taking a tentative wait and see approach to this they are grabbing their writing pitchforks and burning crosses on the lawn. C'mon, these types of screeds have to put into the ethnocentric context from which they're written...

                            Now I will go take my meds and contemplate the assassination of the NBA ref corps.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Gman wrote: View Post
                              Wow, talk about writing in a vacuum. I appreciate the glass half empty attitude but at least acknowledge there's some f*cking water in the glass. This is a little ridiculous. Gay is having a down year because Memphis's entire philosophy is to pound it inside to their bigs and then Gay ends up being relegated to a spot up shooter which is not his strength. He's a cutter and slasher extraordinaire...

                              Let's acknowledge that we have one of the most athletic teams in the NBA. That Calderon was the wrong half court offence running point guard for the new identity. That Lowry running this offence on the fast break is going to create havoc for other teams. You want an uptempo fun team to watch...we've got it. No question.

                              Does Rudy Gay have an onerous contract? Hell yeah...and how else were we going to get a name? I hear Lebron is just pining to come to Toronto. Do you remember the snort of derision that Dwayne Wade gave when he was asked if he would come to Toronto to join Chris Bosh?

                              Colangelo has challenges that other GM's don't. Period. Has he made some egregious mistakes? Hell yeah...is it time for him to go? If after a month of this, and the other moves supposedly coming, we're not markedly better than we were, then absolutely...and he knows it.

                              We just got a marquis SF for a point guard who's very good (I'm going to miss you Jose) but his numbers were inflated this year because he started as the schedule got soft. Same thing with Davis. We traded when their trade value was at it's absolute highest...and we filled a position that we've been hankering for for years.

                              I just find it hilarious that all these pundits who couldn't tell you what the capital of f*cking Canada is all of a sudden take notice when we get a player that's really good. And boy are they pissed. They are raving as if somebody went in to their house and stole their Michael Jordan autographed jersey.

                              Instead of taking a tentative wait and see approach to this they are grabbing their writing pitchforks and burning crosses on the lawn. C'mon, these types of screeds have to put into the ethnocentric context from which they're written...

                              Now I will go take my meds and contemplate the assassination of the NBA ref corps.
                              Obviously this article was wwaayyy too negative. The bottom Line is you're right in that the jury's out.

                              If things work out, then this is a great trade because we got the best player in the deal.

                              I also think everyone is upset at the change overall. We have gotten so used to mediocrity and everyone loved Jose so much that we are forgetting that we are actually getting better with this trade today.

                              Keep in mind. Even if we becomes a perennial 6-8 seed (and I think we can be better) it would be considered one of the most successful stretches in our franchises history.

                              Jose is gone and it sucks giving up Ed Davis. But i am going to go out on a limb and say that we will be better

                              Comment

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