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What If We Don't Retain Lowry This Summer?

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  • #61
    Best available option to us is to sign Kyle. This brings continuity and production from day 1. How much and how long are the subjects of long arguements over beers.

    If he is not here then you assess if Vasquez can play 35 mins and win. If your not sold on that then you sign an upgrade out of FA - Kirk Hinrich may be the best choice AND you draft a PG this year with our first. There are a lot coming out and the teams above us (say we project to 17-19 range) may not need a 1. So between Exum/Smart/Ennis/Carson/Christon/LaVine/Harrison someone will be on the board at our slot or if we see a guy slidiing we want we can trade up.
    There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
    - TGO

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    • #62
      DanH wrote: View Post
      Can't trade him after the deadline though. So it's playoff run or trade Lowry - no way to do both.
      You (and many other people on this board) are operating under the assumption that Lowry has high value on the trade market right now.

      That's simply not true because of Lowry's contract situation. No teams want to give up prospects or picks for an expiring contract. And if all you can get is a expiring contract or a mediocre player in return (Lowry is currently underpaid) than what's really the point in trading him? You could rationalize it by ****ing but as already noted, ****ing this season is abnormally difficult due to how horrible the bottom half of the league is playing this year.

      You're better off keeping him in order to improve the team and inflate the value of all the other players. He makes the other players look and play better. Let him, and sell the other players high during an off-season when a lot of bad teams will be willing to overpay for a quick fix.

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      • #63
        bryan colangelo wrote: View Post
        You (and many other people on this board) are operating under the assumption that Lowry has high value on the trade market right now.

        That's simply not true because of Lowry's contract situation. No teams want to give up prospects or picks for an expiring contract. And if all you can get is a expiring contract or a mediocre player in return (Lowry is currently underpaid) than what's really the point in trading him? You could rationalize it by ****ing but as already noted, ****ing this season is abnormally difficult due to how horrible the bottom half of the league is playing this year.

        You're better off keeping him in order to improve the team and inflate the value of all the other players. He makes the other players look and play better. Let him, and sell the other players high during an off-season when a lot of bad teams will be willing to overpay for a quick fix.
        I think the assumption is that Lowry has more value than what you're insinuating. An example would be the rumored Knicks trade, which was well before Lowry's performance really took off. IF MU has reason to believe that Lowry won't be coming back (either because of Lowry's choice or salary demands), then any net-positive trade would be better for the long-term interests of this team. Obviously you don't trade him (and sacrifice playoffs this season) for garbage, or just to ****, as you mentioned.

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        • #64
          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
          I think the assumption is that Lowry has more value than what you're insinuating. An example would be the rumored Knicks trade, which was well before Lowry's performance really took off. IF MU has reason to believe that Lowry won't be coming back (either because of Lowry's choice or salary demands), then any net-positive trade would be better for the long-term interests of this team. Obviously you don't trade him (and sacrifice playoffs this season) for garbage, or just to ****, as you mentioned.
          Agreed. Cap relief is better than nothing. A 2nd round pick is better than nothing.

          If you have a decent idea that Lowry won't re-sign at the contract value you've already internally settled on for him, you trade him before the deadline. It's simple and obvious. There's really no other option that makes sense. Regardless of impact on this year's playoffs, you trade him (if he's not going to be around long-term, any positive effect he has for the rest of this season is immaterial).

          Now, how certain you are that he won't sign at the value you've set, is the big question, and I think only Raptors management and Lowry's agent have any idea what the answer is. You have to know that Ujiri is already speaking with his agent about what Kyle will be looking for in his new contract, and you also have to know that MLSE has a number for Kyle in mind already. How those conversations are going -- how close or how far apart in numbers -- will determine whether Lowry makes it past the trade deadline in Toronto.

          It's exactly the same situation as Bosh; we can only hope that Lowry and his agent are more forthright/honest about their intentions, or that Ujiri is significantly more astute than Colangelo in reading the reality of the situation.
          Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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          • #65
            jimmie wrote: View Post
            Agreed. Cap relief is better than nothing. A 2nd round pick is better than nothing.

            If you have a decent idea that Lowry won't re-sign at the contract value you've already internally settled on for him, you trade him before the deadline. It's simple and obvious. There's really no other option that makes sense. Regardless of impact on this year's playoffs, you trade him (if he's not going to be around long-term, any positive effect he has for the rest of this season is immaterial).

            Now, how certain you are that he won't sign at the value you've set, is the big question, and I think only Raptors management and Lowry's agent have any idea what the answer is. You have to know that Ujiri is already speaking with his agent about what Kyle will be looking for in his new contract, and you also have to know that MLSE has a number for Kyle in mind already. How those conversations are going -- how close or how far apart in numbers -- will determine whether Lowry makes it past the trade deadline in Toronto.

            It's exactly the same situation as Bosh; we can only hope that Lowry and his agent are more forthright/honest about their intentions, or that Ujiri is significantly more astute than Colangelo in reading the reality of the situation.
            While I agree in principle with most of this, I think you are overstating it. If all we can get back is a 2nd round pick, I might opt to keep him. Winning a playoff round is a rare event in this city and is far from immaterial IMO.

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            • #66
              CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
              I think the assumption is that Lowry has more value than what you're insinuating. An example would be the rumored Knicks trade, which was well before Lowry's performance really took off. IF MU has reason to believe that Lowry won't be coming back (either because of Lowry's choice or salary demands), then any net-positive trade would be better for the long-term interests of this team. Obviously you don't trade him (and sacrifice playoffs this season) for garbage, or just to ****, as you mentioned.
              The Knicks trade fell apart because there was no net positive. They wanted to hand us Felton's crappy contract, and wouldn't package Shumpert OR Hardaway OR a even a pick in the deal. They basically wanted to give us crap for the privilege of helping the New York Knicks.

              It's because of how crappy that deal was that I assume the offers for Lowry around the league so far have been laughably bad. The rumor mill is that any offer that Masai is insisting on any trade involving the Raptors taking on salary must include a future pick — so far, no takers.

              I absolutely believe if the right came along Masai would pull the trigger, and I would totally endorse it. If someone were insane enough to take on Lowry and Fields for a expiring contract and/or marginal player with a better contract, I'd even consider that a kind of win.

              I think the problem is that is most teams aren't in a position to offer us anything that makes any sense. And trading away playoff games for a second rounder can't be an easy sell to MLSE.

              Besides, can you imagine how bad this team (and individual players) would look without Lowry on the floor with them? JV, Ross and Amir have all boosted their value since the Gay trade, and some of the credit has to go to Lowry for his ability to space the floor with the three and run the pick and roll effectively. I consider the effect of raising the value of our other assets a net-positive, so to speak.

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              • #67
                bryan colangelo wrote: View Post
                The Knicks trade fell apart because there was no net positive. They wanted to hand us Felton's crappy contract, and wouldn't package Shumpert OR Hardaway OR a even a pick in the deal. They basically wanted to give us crap for the privilege of helping the New York Knicks.

                It's because of how crappy that deal was that I assume the offers for Lowry around the league so far have been laughably bad. The rumor mill is that any offer that Masai is insisting on any trade involving the Raptors taking on salary must include a future pick — so far, no takers.

                I absolutely believe if the right came along Masai would pull the trigger, and I would totally endorse it. If someone were insane enough to take on Lowry and Fields for a expiring contract and/or marginal player with a better contract, I'd even consider that a kind of win.

                I think the problem is that is most teams aren't in a position to offer us anything that makes any sense. And trading away playoff games for a second rounder can't be an easy sell to MLSE.

                Besides, can you imagine how bad this team (and individual players) would look without Lowry on the floor with them? JV, Ross and Amir have all boosted their value since the Gay trade, and some of the credit has to go to Lowry for his ability to space the floor with the three and run the pick and roll effectively. I consider the effect of raising the value of our other assets a net-positive, so to speak.
                I thought it was obvious that I meant the rumoured return that MU was looking for, not NY's offer.

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                • #68
                  Eric Akshinthala wrote: View Post
                  Lowry should be re-signed during the season or traded. Letting him become a free agent is a very bad idea and could cost the Raptors dearly. In case he refuses to re-sign during the season, I think a package that brings Rondo to Toronto, can be put together.

                  Knowing Masai's style, re-signing him (Lowry) during the season is a very high possibility.
                  Maybe a stupid question (maybe not): Which team(s) could possibly:
                  1. Be interested in signing him to a decent contract (say 6-11 mil per)?
                  2. Have cap space to do so?
                  Most solid playoff teams are at or above cap (Miami, Indy, Atlanta, SA, OKC, Clips, Griz, Portland...), lots of mid level & lottery teams (Cavs, Washington, Philly, Pistons, Phoenix, Bulls...) are set. Few teams KL should not consider (Houston, Sac...).
                  What is left?
                  To, Lakers and maybe Jazz or Orlando (last two teams are positioned to draft high (one of PGs).
                  Sign & trade is also a possibility.
                  IMO, the chance of playing 1-2 rounds of playoffs (and experience that comes with it esp for young guys, Val, TRoss..) with above (unlikely-hood of any team having much interest in Kyle as a starter), I'd take a chance & keep him UNLESS somebody gives us a ridiculous offer (say GS: Kyle for Barnes...).

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                  • #69
                    Just an idea. Would u guys do this?

                    To Raptors - Rubio + Wolves 1st round pick.

                    To Wolves - Lowry.
                    Mamba Mentality

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                    • #70
                      Yes
                      @sweatpantsjer

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                      • #71
                        TRex wrote: View Post
                        Just an idea. Would u guys do this?

                        To Raptors - Rubio + Wolves 1st round pick.

                        To Wolves - Lowry.
                        y wud twolves?

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                        • #72
                          TRex wrote: View Post
                          Just an idea. Would u guys do this?

                          To Raptors - Rubio + Wolves 1st round pick.

                          To Wolves - Lowry.
                          The Wolves don't have their first-rounder (it's traded on a protected basis to Phoenix). The earliest pick they can trade is their 2017 pick.

                          That having been said, Rubio + the Wolves' 2017 first? I would have to consider it. Not so much for Rubio himself - I don't think he's ever going to get that shot he needs to become a true threat - but Rubio would have turnaround value, and a lot of it.

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                          • #73
                            If we don't re-sign Kyle Lowry, and we don't trade him, then you guys may as well un-censor the †ank word because it'll be back in force next season.
                            your pal,
                            ebrian

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                            • #74
                              This is a perfect season for Masai to stay with his rebuild plan. With Lowry playing at an all-star level, his value couldn't be higher. We still don't know if Masai's plan have changed. Don't forget, Masai already decided to trade Lowry. This actually happened. If we keep playing the way we are, I think Masai is smart enough to either sign Lowry on a team friendly deal or trade him and maybe 1 more guy (at max value if they're still winning)

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                              • #75
                                Actually, Lowry's trade value is diminishing as his contract comes to an end. We've seen that expirings have far less value than they used to.

                                After being underpaid the last few years, it's almost guaranteed that Lowry is going to want to cash in this offseason. So an extend-and-trade is probably out of the question. And under the new CBA, players have less incentive to do a sign-and-trade than they used to. (See 92 of Larry coon's CBA FAQ.)

                                It's very unlikely we get a lotto pick for a Lowry rental. So if we trade Lowry before the deadline, you have to wonder whether the return was worth the drop in draft position.

                                And if Lowry doesn't get dealt... We better pray he re-signs or has a reason to take a sign-and-trade.

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