Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

MU says "wait and see" approach, how does the schedule play out?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Well if you think MU is expecting anything higher than .500, then you must think he's got some pretty rosey coloured glasses on.
    MU is a realist; he knows he doesn't have world beaters on his hands. But he also knows he doesn't have the Washington Generals. Somewhere in between is where we sit. I expect if that proves accurate, than MU will push ahead, not fall behind.



    Which, at this stage in the development, is exactly what this team needs in my opinion.
    If they had $15M in cap space coming up, I'd be in 100% agreement.

    Problem is this team appears to be capped out if they keep the current core (Lowry, DD, Gay, Amir, JV, Fields). How do they improve without cap space and financial flexibility? How do they take it to the next level? If a fringe/7th-8th seed is what their ceiling is, how long do you wait to start a rebuild? Do you trade your assets while you can or do you risk them leaving you with nothing (applies to Lowry and Gay)? Has DD shown enough growth that one could actually consider him a difference maker and he could thrive without Gay's presence?

    Comment


    • #32
      Yeah, I'm actually surprised how even it works out. I've done this sort of analysis for NHL schedules before and found wild discrepancies in how teams benefit from back-to-backs. Here, the only times we get the benefit of being rested against a fatigued team (other then the Dec 18 Charlotte game) are against strong teams. I wonder if the NBA intentionally matches strong, fatigued teams against weak, rested teams in order to make games more competitive?

      Comment


      • #33
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        If they had $15M in cap space coming up, I'd be in 100% agreement.

        Problem is this team appears to be capped out if they keep the current core (Lowry, DD, Gay, Amir, JV, Fields). How do they improve without cap space and financial flexibility? How do they take it to the next level? If a fringe/7th-8th seed is what their ceiling is, how long do you wait to start a rebuild? Do you trade your assets while you can or do you risk them leaving you with nothing (applies to Lowry and Gay)? Has DD shown enough growth that one could actually consider him a difference maker and he could thrive without Gay's presence?
        not to add fuel to the depressing fire.... but that would also need to be done while being cognisant of Val's first real pay day to.

        Comment


        • #34
          Craiger wrote: View Post
          not to add fuel to the depressing fire.... but that would also need to be done while being cognisant of Val's first real pay day to.
          Exactly. When Amir and Fields come off the books, JV is due an extension soon after. I can see Fields moving on but what about Amir?

          Comment


          • #35
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            Exactly. When Amir and Fields come off the books, JV is due an extension soon after. I can see Fields moving on but what about Amir?
            Another glorious day in the Raps future.
            Heir, Prince of Cambridge

            If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

            Comment


            • #36
              Matt52 wrote: View Post
              If they had $15M in cap space coming up, I'd be in 100% agreement.

              Problem is this team appears to be capped out if they keep the current core (Lowry, DD, Gay, Amir, JV, Fields). How do they improve without cap space and financial flexibility? How do they take it to the next level? If a fringe/7th-8th seed is what their ceiling is, how long do you wait to start a rebuild? Do you trade your assets while you can or do you risk them leaving you with nothing (applies to Lowry and Gay)? Has DD shown enough growth that one could actually consider him a difference maker and he could thrive without Gay's presence?
              Touche. This is a great point Matt.
              I'll concede that the financials didn't really play into my line of thinking.

              However, I think if this team proves to be a 7th/8th seed as-is, Rudy and Lowry won't be going anywhere; which now gives us another kick and the proverbial can, to test Rudy's new-found fantastic Trade Value, after leading a team into the playoffs, and being on a massive expiring deal.

              Once again, and I believe you agree with me on this, winning will/should solve everything with this team.
              Just a matter of finding out if we can win. If we prove capable of winning as many games as we lose, that's a step in the right direction. One that getting into the 2013 draft won't necessarily guarantee for several more years.

              Comment


              • #37
                Axel wrote: View Post
                I agree that MU is a realist (which is why I think making moves sooner rather than later is the most likely scenario), but I disagree that MU is willing to get into treadmill status, which is basically what .500 ball gives you.

                I'd rather a lottery pick than a sweep. Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets. If you know the team isn't going to contending status, and championships are the goal, why would you waste the opportunity? Once KL and Gay and re-signed, they become less appealing trade assets, and we miss out on a stacked draft. I'm not talking about all out Wiggins level bad, but somewhere in the 8-12 range in this draft still gets you a very good player (PG Andrew Harrison or SF Glenn Robinson to replace KL or Gay).
                When did not making the playoffs become better than being the 7th or 8th seed?
                I don't understand it!.. I mean I DO understand it, I just don't agree with it.
                If you have an opportunity to make the playoffs, you do it. Period.

                "Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets".. what a truely odd thing to say.
                Last edited by Joey; Tue Oct 22, 2013, 12:58 PM.

                Comment


                • #38
                  joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                  Well we've both specified different time lines for reaching .500.
                  I said, based on admitedly optimistic projections, I'd expect this team to be at 14-14 by Christmas; you're saying 12-18 by Christmas, but 20-21 by Jan 22nd.

                  If either, or both, plays out, I expect MU to stand firm and ride this team out.
                  Or at the most make minor adjustments for a short lived Playoff run.
                  A 12-18 start likely will lead to dumping assests. That is why getting out of the gate fast is critical otherwise key assests likely will be moved. We CANNOT start 4-19 again.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                    When did not making the playoffs become better than being the 7th or 8th seed?
                    I don't understand it!.. I mean I DO understand it, I just don't agree with it.
                    If you have an opportunity to make the playoffs, you do it. Period.

                    "Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets".. what a truely odd thing to say.
                    Playoff appearances are not the same thing as playoff wins, big distinction. Making it do the dance and getting swept isn't really a great accomplishment, unless you are an up and coming team on the rise. I don't see that much potential growth from this roster outside of JV and Ross. DD, KL, Gay, they are like the Bears, in that they are what we thought they were. We need growth potential more than we need a playoff appearance so that we can say we haven't been in the lottery 7 consecutive seasons and counting.
                    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                      Touche. This is a great point Matt.
                      I'll concede that the financials didn't really play into my line of thinking.

                      However, I think if this team proves to be a 7th/8th seed as-is, Rudy and Lowry won't be going anywhere; which now gives us another kick and the proverbial can, to test Rudy's new-found fantastic Trade Value, after leading a team into the playoffs, and being on a massive expiring deal.

                      Once again, and I believe you agree with me on this, winning will/should solve everything with this team.
                      Just a matter of finding out if we can win. If we prove capable of winning as many games as we lose, that's a step in the right direction. One that getting into the 2013 draft won't necessarily guarantee for several more years.
                      And what happens if he takes that new found desirability straight to LA or Dallas, as examples?

                      But signing him to an extension and then trading him is something I had not thought of and would be straight out of the MU playbook with Nene.

                      Winning AND $$$$ solves everything. If the Raptors can build a solid young core with financial flexibility/cap space and desirable young assets then they can attract the big free agent or trade to put them over the top.

                      If Raps make 7/8th seed, outside of resigning and trading Gay, I still don't see how they can improve.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        psrs1 wrote: View Post
                        A 12-18 start likely will lead to dumping assests. That is why getting out of the gate fast is critical otherwise key assests likely will be moved. We CANNOT start 4-19 again.
                        Completely agree.
                        Which is why I felt 14-14 at Christmas, was a better .500 target to be aiming for as our "wait and see" limiter, than 20-20 by mid-January.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Matt52 wrote: View Post
                          And what happens if he takes that new found desirability straight to LA or Dallas, as examples?

                          But signing him to an extension and then trading him is something I had not thought of and would be straight out of the MU playbook with Nene.

                          Winning AND $$$$ solves everything. If the Raptors can build a solid young core with financial flexibility/cap space and desirable young assets then they can attract the big free agent or trade to put them over the top.

                          If Raps make 7/8th seed, outside of resigning and trading Gay, I still don't see how they can improve.
                          Then it's apparent that you can't do math.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Matt52 wrote: View Post
                            And what happens if he takes that new found desirability straight to LA or Dallas, as examples?
                            Fair point. Stupid Player Options.. who gives those anyway?! Lol

                            Matt52 wrote: View Post
                            But signing him to an extension and then trading him is something I had not thought of and would be straight out of the MU playbook with Nene.
                            Exactly what I was looking at.

                            Matt52 wrote: View Post
                            Winning AND $$$$ solves everything. If the Raptors can build a solid young core with financial flexibility/cap space and desirable young assets then they can attract the big free agent or trade to put them over the top.

                            If Raps make 7/8th seed, outside of resigning and trading Gay, I still don't see how they can improve.
                            All good points again, but I guess my thinking would be that internal growth can't be discounted either; which is another reason this season is such a huge "wait and see" candidate. Maybe Demar gets it... maybe he doesn't. Maybe Ross bursts onto the scene ... maybe he doesn't. Maybe JV is a beast... maybe he's not. I mean, what if (and I'm going to get burned for this) JV turns out to be a bust. Kwame Brown did average 10 & 7 as a 21 year old (this was more of a joke than anything, so please don't come to my house and hurt me...)
                            Maybe Rudy is a Superstar. Maybe KL is our PG of the future.

                            I don't think we can comfortably and completely answer any of those yet.
                            Last edited by Joey; Tue Oct 22, 2013, 03:37 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Xixak wrote: View Post
                              Then it's apparent that you can't do math.
                              Comments like this really don't contribute Xixak...

                              While I can appreciate what you're saying, you need to elaborate, otherwise making a snark comment like that will do nothing but start fights.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                                Fair point. Stupid Player Options.. who gives those anyway?! Lol



                                Exactly what I was looking at.



                                All good points again, but I guess my thinking would be that internal growth can't be discounted either; which is another reason this season is such a huge "wait and see" candidate. Maybe Demar gets it... maybe he doesn't. Maybe Ross bursts onto the scene ... maybe he doesn't. Maybe JV is a beast... maybe he's not. I mean, what if (and I'm going to get burned for this) JV turns out to be a bust. Kwame Brown did average 10 & 7 as a 21 year old.
                                Maybe Rudy is a Superstar. Maybe KL is our PG of the future.

                                I don't think we can comfortably and completely answer any of those yet.
                                Yes it all comes down to internal growth. If someone (or 3) develops in to alright all star talent this year, now there are possibilities. But expecting everyone to break out and teach potential is a familiar theme.

                                The whole JV rookie contract, build throw draft, hit FA hard in '15 and '16 before extension has been said before. That would bet counter.

                                The waiting is the hardest part

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X