I’ve always hated winning and losing in bunches; change needs to be balanced with consistency. Just like that, the team is 4-9 with 8 of the next 10 coming on the road. This team needs Bargnani and Bayless back at full capacity as soon as possible before it gets offensively ugly.

Bret Lagree from Hoopinion gave me his thoughts on a couple questions I had:

After that solid playoff run, and the hot start to the year, does losing Horford write-off the rest of the year; even if he gets back for the playoffs? Also, what’s the plan now, Zaza/trade?
Even without Horford, the Hawks should make the playoffs. His absence definitely diminishes the team’s chances of advancing in the post-season, but the team’s upside with Horford was the probably the second-round, yet again, anyway. His injury would have a had greater impact for a more ambitious, less risk-averse team.

I expect Zaza Pachulia will start (except when the Hawks play the Magic) and primarily split time at center with the undersized Ivan Johnson. Josh Smith might get some time as a nominal five in small lineups. It might work since Marvin Williams and Tracy McGrady (when healthy) are good rebounders for small forwards. If there’s a trade to be made, say Kirk Hinrich for a big man, the Hawks will surely consider it, but they might just as well off keeping Hinrich and doubling-down on perimeter defense.

McGrady’s renaissance has been a pleasant surprise after being brought in to replace some of the lost production from Crawford’s departure. He’s injured now, but can you see him being an important contributor to a team that can make deep playoff appearances?
McGrady was great for most of the first seven games but he’s already missed or been unable to contribute in six straight games since then. The Hawks can’t count on him every night, but he’s a difference-maker when healthy. They should do everything possible to have him available for the playoffs, regular season results be damned.

Are you guys regretting giving Joe Johnson that contract? Seems to me $20m should be able to buy you more than 18pts 4reb 4ast 16PER; is he an amnesty candidate if the Hawks aren’t contenders by next season?
Unfortunately, the only people who didn’t feel anticipatory regret for the Joe Johnson contract were those with the power to hand it to him. The organization has always overrated him on both ends of the floor and compounded that by assuming he’s not going to age. On the other hand, the amount the team has invested in Johnson ($75 million contract, $124 million contract, two first-round picks, Boris Diaw) has, at times, obscured that he’s been a pretty good player with the Hawks, even if he’ll do well to be an above-average player over the length of his current contract.

Injuries

Toronto
Aaron Gray
Jerryd Bayless
James Johnson
Andrea Bargnani

Atlanta
Al Horford
Tracy McGrady
Marvin Williams

Match-ups

Point Guard
You might be able to excuse Calderon’s performance against Rose all things considered. At least he somehow managed 8 assists. The Hawks don’t have the firepower at the point the Bulls do, but they are fairly deep; Kirk Hinrich is their 4th string quarterback. There is nothing about Jeff Teague, Jannero Pargo, some guy named Donald Sloan and Hinrich can do to scare me, but the Raptors are thin at the one. That said, the Hawks are great at sharing the ball, even with Josh Smith in the lineup, and that starts with the point.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Joe Johnson is one of my man-crushes in the league, and even though he’s not producing anywhere close to what a $20m/year guy should be producing, he’s heads and shoulders better than DeRozan. He’s one of those guys who’s good at everything really. He defends, scores from all over the floor, rebounds, shares the ball and plays heavy minutes. To make matters worse for DeMar, who didn’t get to the foul line against the Bulls on Saturday, is that JJ wont be bailing him out with cheap fouls, since he has a low foul rate.
Edge: Atl

Small Forward
With Kleiza in the lineup, and if guys play within themselves, there’s no reason why the Raptors can’t be ok-to-good at the small forward. It all comes down to Butler and Johnson listening to me and not shooting the ball just because they have the room to let loose. The Hawks are great at the 3 either, but they are fairly deep with veteran savvy. Stackhouse is still alive and reasonably useful, while Radmanovic has found a home…doesn’t matter really…
Edge: Even

Power Forward
Looks like Bargnani is still out, which basically writes the game off. I find myself hoping the Raptors go small ball, and give Kleiza and Johnson (can’t believe I’m saying this) the bulk of the minutes at the four if Andrea can’t go. Davis needs Anthony Robbins or something…not sure, but what I do know is that Josh Smith will make him humble if he doesn’t come correct.
Edge: Atl

Center
The only exciting aspect of this match-up is being able to say Zaza with some flare. Amir/Magloire can probably keep their heads up in this one, but it doesn’t matter. The Raptors caught a break with Horford going down for 3-4 months with an injury, otherwise this would have gotten ugly, fast.
Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

• Get to the foul line; as a team on Saturday against the Bulls, the Raptors went to the foul line seven times (made 1 of them); no wonder they were only able to muster 64 points. The Hawks have a few good defenders, so you have to get as many easy/cheap points as possible
• Perimeter defense; the Hawks like to throw the ball around and stick jumpers. It kills them in the playoffs, but wins them games in the regular season. The Raptors have done a great job of giving teams nice looks from the perimeter; seems like a match made in heaven. need to tighten things up
• Let Josh Smith shoot as much as he wants

The Line

The Hawks are at home and haven’t lost to the Raptors in over two years; there’s a reason they are 11 point favourites.

The Raptors are looking to extend their home winning streak to 2 tonight against the Hawks. Just looking ahead, after tonight’s game, the Raptors have the Pistons at home before heading out on the road for a 5 game skid that will see them play Washington, New Orleans, San Antonio, Orland and the Heat. Based on past performances, this could be the start of a 7 game skid, but 2-5 seems more reasonable.

Add in the potential Melo trade involving the Nets and Pistons, and the stage is set for the Raptors descent into the bottom five of the league, which Franchise from Raptors HQ claims wouldn’t be a bad thing. I’m not one for tanking, but they might not need too if this trade goes through (the Nets/Pistons will win more games with upgraded rosters, and clarity of roles in the Pistons case).

The last time these guys played, the Hawks rather easily handed the Raptors a loss by moving the ball around masterfully and attacking in the paint with their bigs. With the Hawks playing much better since and having refined their offensive sets, which rely much less on iso-plays, things could be much worse for the short-handed-injury-plagued Raptors. Hopefully memories of an embarrassing 11-point 3rd quarter will fuel the fire for retribution.

I briefly spoke to Bret Lagree from Hoopinion about the Hawks and tonights game:

From what I’ve seen/heard, seems like this team likes to play together and are very supportive of one-another. What’s been the driving force of the camaraderie, and who’s the glue guy?
Al Horford is an extremely efficient offensive player and essential to the team defensive concept. The Hawks are at their best when Joe Johnson and/or Jamal Crawford are making jump shots but Horford is the constant, two-way presence.

How do you feel about the trade rumour of Jose Calderon + a big to the Hawks + a big? Who would be included from Atlanta’s side, and who would you want in return?
I can’t see the Hawks exacerbating their cap hell, burying Jeff Teague deeper, and failing to improve their perimeter defense in one fell swoop by acquiring Calderon. That might just be wishful thinking on my part.

Josh Smith seems fully capable of putting up 20/10 consistently, what’s been keeping him from doing that?
A desire to shoot jump shots, the team’s willingness to indulge that, and a constant need for Smith to challenge opponents’ field goal attempts as a help defender.

19pts 4rebs 5ast wasn’t exactly what the powers that be had in mind when they handed Joe Johnson that massive contract. It makes it hard to offer Crawford a reasonable contract to keep him as the spark-plug off the bench. What’s going to happen to him?
Given that Johnson missed two weeks, played hurt (and had it affect his production) much of the season, and the Hawks are just one game off last season’s pace, its hard to say that not signing him would have hurt the Hawks seriously in the short term and it obviously would have increased their cap flexibility in the future.

With Jamal Crawford (younger, can score, but doesn’t have the all around game) available, how badly would it have hurt the Hawks if they didn’t resign him, or pulled off a trade (possibly to the Knicks) with him as a principle?
I think there’s a decent chance he comes back to the Hawks on a multi-year deal for much less money per season. There isn’t a huge market for him and the Hawks love to re-sign their free agents. I think it’s better than 50-50 that they bring back Damien Wilkins and Jason Collins next season, too.

The Hawks have done very well against the Raptors, handing them some of the toughest losses they’ve endured over the last couple of season. What will be strategy heading into the game tonight?
If the Hawks simply run their offense, they can outscore the Raptors at least 9 times out of 10. I expect the Hawks to attack whatever match-up advantage they have on a given possession, either scoring quickly or swinging the ball around the perimeter for an open jump shot. It’ll be the good kind of isolation basketball.

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out
Sonny Weems – Day to day
Jose Calderon – Day to day
Jerry Bayless – Day to day

Atlanta
The whole team is healthy

Match-ups

Point Guard
Not sure that Bibby is an upgrade over Jose on perimeter defense, but I’ll digress. What we can agree is that Bibby has always seemed to get up to play against the Raptors; he hasn’t been lighting it up like he used too, but he did go 3-4 from beyond the arc the last time these cats played against each other. On the season, he’s shooting 49.1% from behind the arc, that’s good for second in the league and a career high. Bibby is still moving the ball around rather well, leading the Hawks to 5th in the league in assists. Their ball movement scares me, as the Raptors haven’t been the best at defensive rotations and closing out on shooters.

With the Raptors giving up so many good looks from the perimeter lately, Bibby can follow up his solid play against the Pacers (4-6 from beyond the arc) after 3 fairly brutal games in a row. Defending Bibby shouldn’t be so difficult: don’t leave him to help, and force him to put it on the floor. He’s basically there to shoot the ball and swing it to the open man; take that away and he’s got nothing. Calderon on the other hand…what more can we expect from him? He doesn’t practice between games because his feet are mangled, but has been able to increase his points and assists every month since the start of the season. You have to figure the foot injury is going to get worse, so the Raptors might be better served to sit him against teams like the Hawks where a win is a far-far-gone conclusion.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Call it what you want, but you can’t deny that DeRozan’s improvement couldn’t have come at a better time. Not sure what the turning point was, but we know that since putting up a lame 10pt performance in a loss to the Pistons on December 22nd, DeRozan has averaged 22.1pts since. We’re going to need every single one of those points tonight against the 8th ranked defense in the league.

A testament to this Hawks team is how quietly they were able to weather the storm of Joe Johnson’s injury, going 5-4 through the stretch while not conceding much ground against the Magic for 4th in the East (and actually beating the Magic 80-74 during his absence). Makes it much easier when you have a motivated Jamal Crawford, the owner of something in the vicinity of 31 4-point plays, who can carry the scoring load quite nicely and is in a contract year.

While Johnson has played well, but never really abused the Raptors over the years, Crawford has drank our milkshake every time he’s played us dating back to the Chicago years. Tempting Crawford to drive, and forcing him into a help defender, is the only chance of slowing him down. Much like DeRozan, the guy is a one-trick pony who’s major contribution is scoring. Unlike DeRozan (up until recently at least), his contribution is much more devastating. Johnson on the other hand contributes across the board and poses a much bigger problem if allowed to operate freely.

Like Bret said, the Hawks will be able to run their offense and sofa on the Raptors 9 times out of 10, and unless either/both these guys has an off game, i got nothing to offer in terms of a ours of action; hopefully DeRozan drops 31 and gets the line in 8-10 attempt range if he has any designs on countering these two.
Edge: Atlanta

Small Forward
Josh Smith’s scoring and rebounding has been impacted by his need to play help defense and block shots; if only we were so lucky as Raptor fans. Sure he shoots too much for a man of his ability, but he does so much else, you can almost forgive him.

This is where things get quite interesting in terms of match-ups and such. The Hawks have Josh Smith at the 3, and can quite easily shift him over to the 4 at will. He’s bigger, stronger, faster, taller than Kleiza, and with Amir among the walking wounded, can really affect both match-ups in Atlanta’s favour.

The size advantage Kleiza’s been enjoying on the offensive glass won’t be there tonight with the Hawks front court, who rebound very well on the defensive glass. Best bet will be to get hot from the perimeter and keep Josh out of the paint/lane to hopefully free up space for DeRozan and Bargnani to operate. I can live with Josh scoring on jumpers rather than getting into the lane and off the glass; this screams for someone of Julian Wright’s ability and mind-set…
Edge: Atlanta

Power Forward
The toll that Amir Johnson’s body has been put through since Reggie’s gone down has been staggering. He’s basically battling in the paint, on both ends of the floor, alone. Better yet, he’s been doing it recently with noticeable pain. Ed Davis, while improving, isn’t ready for major minutes yet, but is doing what he can. Frankly, he’s been doing a good job considering. I imagine we can expect more of the same tonight against Horford; a guy I would trade Bargnani for in a second. Not hating, just that I prefer well rounded players.

If Jason Collins (yes, he’s still in the league) can’t cover Bargnani, expect a switch with Horford and Collins. Actually, the best hope the Raptors have match-up wise is shifting Horford to 5, Smith to 4 and playing Maurice Evans or Marvin Williams at the 3 where Kleiza can flex his stuff a bit more.
Edge: Atlanta

Center
For some reason, Collins has seen a resurgence of sorts with the  Hawks and is getting some play. Can’t imagine why considering he’s mostly 6 fouls to throw at somebody. Regardless, I think we can all agree that Bargnani will abuse him if he’s covering the Italian. If Horford shifts over, we can also agree that Bargnani has the size/strength/speed to battle Al, but the match-up will ultimately be decided by Bargnani’s ability to battle on the boards and do the dirty work. Horford will be out of his comfort zone on defense coming out so far to defend Andrea, that I kind of like both match-ups considering how sweet he’s shooting the ball lately. It’s going to take a big night by Andrea if the Raptors hope to stay competitive and be in a position to steal one at home.
Edge: Toronto

The Line

The gamblers have the Hawks as 4.5 point favourites with an over/under of 205.5. This game has all the makings of a game that can get out of hand quickly, especially with the Raptors so banged up. My concerns are really on the Raptors ability to create quality scoring opportunities for themselves. While the Hawks are an athletic bunch, I like the Raptors chances in a faster tempo game. Since the Hawks are 26th in the league in pace, going all helter-skelter could keep the Hawks from getting into sets and sharing the ball more efficiently.

So with a 1:21 left in the Bulls/Cavs game, Noah hits the go ahead basket, and neither side is able to score for the rest of the game; Bulls win and draw even (in win/loss) to the Raptors. They’re still 9th in the east, but when if the Raptors lose to the Hawks tonight, they will be in 8th place by half a game. So it goes in Raptorland…

The Raptors are the walking wounded, what terrible luck that Bosh and possibly Turkoglu are out when things are coming down to the wire. From the beginning of the season, even though a few of us talked about the Raptors being a .500 team, and the 5th to 8th spots in the East not being decided until the last couple games of the season, it doesn’t mean we’re not nervous about the last week of the season.

Including tonight, both the Raptors and Bulls have four games to go, and their schedules look like:

Toronto
@ Atlanta
vs Chicago
@ Detroit
vs New York

Chicago
@ New Jersey
@ Toronto
vs Boston
vs Charlotte

The Chicago game is a must win, there is no question, but the Raptors have owned Detroit and New York all year, if they can win 2 of those three games, I think the Raptors sneak into the playoffs. You have to remember that Boston can’t rest their guys much coming down the stretch since they are dead-locked with Atlanta for the 3rd seed (no one wants Cleveland in the 2nd round). I don’t know, I think the playoffs are on the horizon, and with Bosh rumoured to possibly return for the playoffs….could be a boon.

First things first though, the Hawks. I checked in with Bret LaGree of Hoopinion about the Hawks:

Q. With Boston holding the tie breaker, I took a look at both your schedules, and it looks like both you guys could go 3-1 over the next four games. Milwaukee might be a better first round match-up given they lost Bogut with the broken finger, but do you really want Cleveland in the 2nd round?
A. The Hawks are going to be a decent-sized favorite in the first-round and a big underdog in the second-round regardless of the particular match-ups. I do think Milwaukee (without Bogut) is a slightly better match-up for the Hawks than Miami. For selfish reasons, I’d like to avoid another first-round series with the Heat. I’m not sure I have anything interesting left to say about those two teams playing each other. Even though the Hawks finally beat Orlando, they still match-up terribly against the Magic. The Hawks are probably no more likely to trouble Cleveland but all their games tend to be competitive until the Hawks stop scoring in the fourth quarter.

Q. Can you rate the Hawks this season? From an outsider looking in, I would say they are having a great season, comments?
A. It’s a been good season. They’ve taken another small step forward. It’s hard to see how they get from 50 wins to contending for a championship (I suspect it involves putting good defensive guards in front of Smith and Horford but I don’t have a practical and plausible scenario for making that happen.) but the Hawks were so bad (and boring-bad) for so long that competence hasn’t grown stale.

Q. I know people are talking about Jamal Crawford as a replacement for Joe Johnson, but give me a break! Shouldn’t the Hawks be doing everything possible to keep Johnson in a Hawks uniform going forward? (I have a man crush on Joe Johnson btw)
A. I was open to the idea of trading Joe Johnson and building around Smith and Horford (and Josh Childress but that ship has sort of sailed) two summers ago. Johnson’s the team’s best player but not good enough to take up such a large share of the cap on a team whose owner’s aren’t going to pay the luxury tax. Plus, they gave up too much (Diaw and 2 first-round picks) to acquire him and wasted so many resources (several draft picks, the rights to Childress) that they’ve never been in a position to acquire a true franchise player to play alongside Johnson via trade. The best they can do with their disposable assets is acquire an over-paid Bibby or Crawford. Then they keep those shot-happy defensive liabilities and further limit their options with regard to the cap. I’m not sure Johnson will re-sign but I suspect the Hawks will aggressively try and keep him. They’ll have to make more than one major trade to replace Johnson if he leaves and the organization is terribly resistant to change.

Q. Josh Smith; gush about him a bit.
A. It’s nice to have him healthy again. He really struggled to move last season after he sprained his ankle against the Raptors in the fourth game of the season. He’s back to his normal rates on the offensive glass, blocking shots, and getting steals and now that he’s (mostly but not enough) playing inside of 15-feet where defenses have to pay attention to him the passing lanes have opened up and he can take advantage of that skill, too. If he ever stops taking jump shots (three a game this year, and he makes the long twos no more frequently than he made the three-pointers he’s abstained from this season) and gets back to being a 70% free throw shooter, he’ll be a legit All-NBA candidate.

Q. I’ve hated Al Horford since he raped TJ Ford a couple years ago, but the guy has been huge for me in my fantasy league, would you consider trading him for Andrea Bargnani, straight up?
A. If there’s a precise amount of alcohol I could consume that would significantly impair my judgment but not kill me, I might consider Bargnani for Horford. Marvin Williams for Bargnani better represents my interest in Andrea in a non-altered state.

There are only a few games left this season, I had to throw a jab at Bargnani…

The last time these guys played was that epic Bosh game winner with 2 seconds left in the game. The Raptors played hard and gave themselves a chance to win the game at the end (which is all we want from this team). The Hawks are in a bit of funk heading into the playoffs; they have dropped 3 of their last 4, including their most recent loss to the Pistons. In their defense, they were missing Joe Johnson, who is expected to return tonight (great!).

Regardless of Johnson’s status tonight, the Hawks have enough weapons to really give the Raptors problems. Starting Reggie Evans may not be the way to go tonight. Josh Smith is just too athletic for Evans, who wont be giving him much trouble on either end of the floor. If the Raptors want any shot at winning, Amir Johnson needs to start, and play heavy minutes alongside Bargnani against the Smith/Horford front line. I can’t see it any other way, just saying.

Bargnani bounced-back in the game against the Celtics with 17pts 5rebs after playing TERRIBLY against the Cavs (horrible). Although he hasn’t been shooting very well from the field lately, he has to figure out a way to get some shots when that double comes. With Bosh out, room to operate is sparse. His play will be crucial tonight. If all he does tonight is elbow Horford in the face, that would make me really happy.

I’m mostly just afraid of Jamal Crawford; the guy has been killing us for years, and is averaging 21pts a game against us this season – there are really no words…hate maybe…

If Turkoglu is out tonight, this game could be over as quickly as it starts. Move the ball around, rebound and tempt Josh Smith to shoot three’s, that’s the only way I see this ending well for the Raptors.

It’s the last Raptor Fan Friday tonight at the SCC, and we’ve had a great year with your support, and really appreciate y’all showing up in the snow/cold when the team wasn’t doing very well. So come on down and join us tonight. One love baby.

Like so many times this year, the Toronto Raptors pulled out a game at home that they probably shouldn’t have. Yes, they got lucky on St. Patrick’s day in the end, but for a while it looked like they’d had a few brews at halftime, laying down another clunker in the third quarter.

Let’s not kid ourselves. This was the Raps biggest game of the year to date. The teams confidence was shook as it went from high to low in the matter of a dozen games. Fingers pointed at the team, and at specific players. Two of the main targets, Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu did step up to the challenge tonight. You knew they had to. I mean if they aren’t going to respond to this situation, then you could have basically written them off for this year. This had the same feeling the Chicago game had back in December after the Raps were handed a royal beatdown by this same Atlanta team.

So it was kind of expected the Raps would come out guns blazing to start this game. The guns didn’t start firing right away as the Raps spotted the Hawks a quick 7 – 0 lead. This is when the Raps called out a time out and went on a 23 – 7 run. We’ll call this Andrea’s Run because he dominated fot his stretch. It was the kind of effort that’s bittersweet in the sense that it was great to see him get inside and bang for an offensive rebound, post up and attack the rim aggressively, but the bitter part being that perhaps I’m getting excited about something we should be taking for granted from our starting center. Even more bitter is why he can’t do it on a consistent basis. Ok, Al Horford is good, but I don’t think the way he aggressively took the ball to the rim and his overall activity level on defense was a revelation for Hawks fans. It’s something they expect from him, and he delivers it on a consistent basis. But let’s give credit where credit is due, Andrea had a very good 1st and 4th quarter, and an overall solid game.

I think this game was more the exception than the norm, but I’m willing to see this through. Amir played another great game tonight. His play to get his hand on the Turk free throw miss saved the game. What bothers me more than anything is that because this guy hustles and brings energy, he gets labelled as such, and it seems synonymous with “unskilled”. Make no mistake, this is one very skilled basketball player. He is getting very good with that jump hook, and his hustle includes challenging any play down the lane, getting this team extra possessions for second chance points. That’s a skill too, just like shooting is. Try telling Charles Barkley it isn’t. If Bargs starts coasting again, I want to see Amir in there for more than 25 minutes, at least.

The Raptors continued to play well, keeping a double-digit lead until something happened that I wish I could see from the Raps. I wish I had seen it when Paul Pierce stood over our best player after a dunk, seemingly taunting him. The Hawks rallied after a frustrated Josh Smith got “disrespected” by Jose Calderon. Hey, Caldy actually didn’t mean to, but unintentional swag’s better than no swag at all right?

Cue the Hawks rally. After a spontaneous players-only huddle where they must have pumped themselves up, Atlanta whittled a 10 point lead down to a one-possession game in less than 3 minutes. End of half. Gone was the adrenalin of a big home game, and the lead that came with it. Now came the dreaded 3rd quarter.

It was dreadful alright. The Raps got lucky with the absence of Joe Johnson, but Jamal Crawford made up for it. He was a tough guard all night, and the 3rd quarter was no exception. Demar DeRozan may have gotten burned by the wily veteran, but he got some back with his own stellar offensive play. He is going through another strong stretch of play. There is no denying his quickness, especially in the open court. 19 points, without any threes, impressive.

Chris Bosh really struggled in the third. It might have been one of his worst quarters of the year. Some of it has to do with Horford. Earlier in the game, Horford denied him on the drive, with some help of course. It succeeded in putting Bosh into jumpshot mode. Which is fine if your jumper is working. He got into foul trouble midway thoruh the 3rd, something he rarely does. He’s not fully back yet, Bosh is. Not sure what it is, but he’s not at the level he was pre-injury, and this team just cannot afford him to be any less than 100%. That is the sad reality that is the 2009/10 Toronto Raptors.

It was 86 – 75 at the end of 3, and you have to give credit to the Raps for bending but not breaking. They were always within arm’s length of the Hawks and with some of the stellar fourth quarters this team had had at home, you knew that keeping it close was important. Enter Hedo Turkoglu, who made a pivotal 3-pt play with 6 mins to go, just after a big Jarret Jack floater. I like Jarret at the end of games. You need assertive guard play in crunch time, and Jarret does that better than Jose, me thinks. Jose was great in the 1st, not so much the rest of the game. Let’s hope he doesn’t fall into that passive player we all grew to loathe as a starter.

I wouldn’t worry as much about this if Jay Triano wasn’t our coach. I don’t know why MLSE allows us to hear in on his timeouts, because they expose him as someone who carries no authority behind his words. It’s not that he’s not loud or overly demonstrative, Phil Jackson isn’t for example, but when the Zen Master talks, you listen. With Jay, he just doesn’t sound convincing. I could be wrong but he doesn’t make eye contact with players, nor does he address specific players, which you need to do sometimes. Does that part get editted out? Perhaps. I hope. There was no way to edit that timeout on a fast break… at the end of the game… where the Raps had numbers. Not going to hang everything on the coach though, because I think it’s just too easy to do it when fans can’t admit their team is just not as talented as they would hope.

Back to Turk. He looked a tad quicker out there. The effort was there, and maybe the conditioning he referred to recently is starting to reap its benefits. If he’s getting back to the player he was last year, this game being the first of many steps, then a lot of our questions are answered. That’s how important he is, especially in Bryan Colangelo’s eyes. He should be the second option on this team. Yes, he’s not terribly efficient, but he generates offense through his passing as well, which is not as quantifiable.

In the end, Chris Bosh hit a nice stepback fadeaway over Al Horford to ice the game. Good for him, good for the Raptors to struggle but make ‘em when they counted. Big men have never been counted on to close games. Some of the greatest, Patrick Ewing comes to mind, failed more than they succeeded in endgame scenarios. But on a team that hasn’t seen a quality backcourt gunner since the days of Vince Carter, he has started to figure it out. He’s stepped up to the challenge, worked hard this offseason to become a better player, and is now arguably the best power forward in the game. He’s not the problem on this team, and this victory was one important step to retaining respectability and his services for the next few years.

Unlike the Raptors, we continue to work hard at RR and bring the goods. The good news is that AltRaps’ and Arsenalists prediction for a 3-1 week is still alive. The bad news is that all three have to come on the road starting tonight in Atlanta. After losing Sunday to a Pistons team without Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, we can expect this team to want to rebound. You will all be in my thoughts tonight as this one is going to get messy, I can guarantee you that.

The last time these guys played, it didn’t go so well, with the Hawks taking down a 118-110 decision. There was some playoff seeding on the line in that game, as the Hawks had a couple game lead over the Bulls for the 4th seed, but the Raptors had already thrown in the towel, even if Marion hadn’t.

The Match-ups

The Point: Calderon and Jack are both coming off of good games last night, Calderon more so than Jack. Triano needs to manage these two better today…if Calderon is hot, ride the wave man, don’t be afraid. What happened last night was terrible. We have to make sure that if Calderon is hot, that we use that, and not take the ball out of his hand. On the flip side, Jack needs to know his role, and not try to take the game over. He hit some big shots last night, but we have a lot of guys who are better scorers (better shooters) than he is, and they need to be utilized for these types of roles. Bibby has always hurt the Raptors, and I don’t see that changing much. If Calderon/Jack leave him open, he will take and hit that three. Triano needs to NOT play them together as the thought of these two playing defense on a combination of Bibby/Crawford/Johnson makes the Pad Thai I had for lunch make some noise in my stomach.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Talent: Johnson is going to murder DeRozan/Belinelli/Wright/Jack/whoever covers him. I don’t see any ways around this one. Hopefully Jack will not be assigned even a minute of duty covering this guy. Crawford is the other Raptor killer on this team. How many times have we seen him drop 50 on us? Again, he wont have much trouble slicing and dicing.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Wing: Turkoglu is continually being under/incorrectly utilized. His usage rate is at 18.9%; to put it in perspective, he was at 23% and 24.8% the last two seasons in Orlando. Figure he is getting between 4-6 less touches a game, as well he is being used to do the wrong types of things (should be a playmaker for others, not told to get his own shot off), and we have ourselves a problem. To put this in perspective, Jack is being utilized at 17.3%….yeah. I like this match-up with Marvin Williams for Turk, he wont get abused on defense, and should be able to do what he wants on offense.

The Edge: Raptors

The Big: Bosh vs Smith, I love this match-up. The PF battle will be crucial off the bench with Amir “put me in coach” Johnson battling Joe “I’m still kickin around” Smith on both ends. It’s amazing Joe Smith is playing, and at such a high level. A true pro, and a great pick up for the Hawks IMHO.
The Edge: Even

The Strong: I don’t have any problems with Bargnani right now. He’s doing about what I expected. Sure, I could use some more rebounding and better rotational defense, but f*ck it, the system sucks. Horford does represent some big problems for Bargs though. This guy is relentless on the boards, and lives in the paint. Leave him alone 15ft out, and he can knock those down. Bargs needs to box this guy out, job # 1. I don’t even care if he doesn’t score a lick, keep this guy off the board and in foul trouble, and this game is ours, simple.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Line

The Hawks are a 9 point favourite with an over/under of 211.5

Simulation

Visser’s sims are 13-6 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 107-95 Raptors loss.

Prediction

AltRaps predicts a win. Arsenalist predicts a win. Who am I to disagree? I’m a realist, that’s who I am. Raptors lose, sorry guys.

Come swing by the RR Forums and check out our game thread. You want Twitter? Live Chat? ESPN Daily Dime? We got you son!

It’s been a minute, but I’m back. Sadly, not a whole lot changed while I was gone.. The fortunes of this team have remained the same. Regardless of how we got here, the fact of the matter is that this team is worse off right now then when BryCo took over. That’s all I’m going to say (you forgot how I ramble didn’t you?). Whatever, it’s done. Team sucks, we understand, moving on…

To call this season a disappointment would be an understatement of epic proportions. Not because BC claimed it was the most talented team he has assembled in Toronto, but because of the inroads we were making over the last few years:

2005-2006 – The BryCo saga begins – 27-55
2006-2007 – First year of an era – 47-35
2007-2008 – The Horford raped us year – 41-41
2008-2009 – The most talented team on paper year – 32-50 or 33-49

THE SPECTER OF A 50 LOSS SEASON  IS STILL AT HAND

You bet your azz. Is this team better or worse off then when BryCo took over the reigns? I’m just putting it out there, but I have to ask.

It looks like the Bulls have something to be playing for tonight. They are a game out of 5th and if they can win, and Miami loses to Detroit, they can sneak into 5th and face the Hawks in the 1st round, which is the best 1st round match-up for them, IMHO. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Hawks are a better team, but they are missing Childress and Marvin Williams is injured…could be a sleeper situation for Da Bulls.

Also, the Bulls have the added motivation of avenging that thrilling loss back in April in OT. You remember that one, Parker splits a pair of free throws that could clinch the game, Ben Gordon comes back down and pops a jumper in Bosh’s eye to tie it up at the buzzer? Fortunately, Bosh/Bargnani/Marion stepped up to steal back a game after a furious comeback by the Bulls. Twas an exciting game, Arsenalist even put aside his Twit-stalking of @taylorswift13 to curse out Parker then anoint Bargnani as the future.

Your milkshake would bring me to the yard.

The Raptors on the other hand have nothing to play for, but they have a knack of winning when the games don’t mean anything and has actually cost them draft position. Was I the only one who thought it super classy of Bosh to come out and do Colangelo’s job for him on Sunday? Taking it on the chin for the team? This is the guy you don’t want to resign to a max contract? This isn’t a leader? Sure he isn’t an offensive first choice, but the guy is elite. Short of trading him for Roy, Paul, Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, Dwight, or Joe Johnson, they wont even come close to good value and the Raptors become the laughing stock of the league and never ever get out of the first round for the foreseeable future. Don’t worry Chris, I still love ya. You piss me off from time-to-time, but you’re the man.

Why am I making such a big deal of this now, with a game to go before the playoffs? It is easy: the Raptors are a game away from 50 losses, and Bosh is the only player on this team who can make sure that doesn’t happen. Simple. We need Bosh to avoid 50 losses as much as we need him to retire a Raptor.

Our cheerleader of the day is Shannon, currently Miss. Illinois. I actually don’t have anything witty to say about her because not only is she beautiful, she is educated (Masters from Depaul), ambitious (ideal job is as an educational advocate traveling the world speaking on the improvement of education) AND seems like that kind of girl that all your buddies secretly pine for, and get all ‘school-girly & giggly” when she’s around. Still, the dirty things I would do to you. If you are reading this, hit me on twitter, @rapsfan, and we can make some arrangements to hook up, I’ll be in Chicago early May, could be magical…

Injuries

Raptors – who cares
Bulls – who cares

What the Raptors Will Have to do to Avoid 50 Losses

Bargnani – Keep Noah away from the rim, if nothing else.

Bosh – Keep doing what you do.

Calderon – Push the ball and look for Marion on the break.

Marion – 20/15.

Parker – Hit your flippin free throws.

Prediction

It was a truly disappointing season, but Bosh will send us into the summer with less of a sour taste in our mouths (until the shiznak hits the fan as soon as the playoffs are over and LeBron is holding that trophy). Raptors by 6.

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It was my pleasure talking with y’all this season.

If you’re going to be a big enough coward to hit a man on the head while he’s got his back towards you, the least you could do is not feign your innocence and openly acknowledge conflict. Instead Anthony Johnson pretended he had nothing to do with Jose Calderon being knocked down to the floor and was set to get away with it hadn’t the officials caught the violent act. Nobody was short in pointing out that this is the same team that knocked TJ out and now came close to taking out our other point guard. But unlike Horford’s take down of TJ, this one was malicious and intentional and warranted a response from the Raptors. I’m not calling for a brouhaha but somebody should at least go up to him, stare him down and give him a little bump, it’s warranted. But credit the Raptors for responding to the increased physicality in the second half and coming away with another hard-fought win in a close game. Suspension to follow. Co-incidentally, the Raptors toughness is alluded in Podcast #3 which was recorded before the Hawks game:

#3 – A Time to Kill Download it! (4.3 MB, 12′ 22”) Subscribe in iTunes

The second half’s better, topics include: Bryan Colangelo, Oakley, Davis, Celtics, 3rd Seed, RealGM, Jim Rome, rebounding, missing NBA on NBC, soft schedule etc.

Josh Smith’s defense and Joe Johnson’s offense kept the Hawks in this game as much as the Raptors’ tendency to walk through offensive possessions as soon as they got a 5 point lead. The Raptors pull a Jekyll and Hyde on offense every other possession, you literally see them move the ball extremely well off a double team leading up to an open shot and on the very next possession, you’ll see Delfino jacking up a shot or nobody moving for the first 18 seconds resulting in a forced low-percentage shot. What this tells me is that we tend to lose focus fairly quickly, something we can get away with against the likes of the Hawks but will end up paying for against better competition. Give Sam credit for recognizing the athleticism of the Hawks team and their lack of PG play; he put out a lineup of Parker/Calderon/Bosh/Moon for the majority of the game and we one-upped their length and size on every matchup.

Chris Bosh’s performance was impressive again (35 points on 12-18 FG says it all), his game is starting to become inside-out rather than the other way round and I’m sure we’ll all agree that’s what the order of attack should be. CB4 challenged Josh Smith on every opportunity and came out the winner most of the time proving yet again that if his mindset is aggressive, even the better one-on-one defenders in the league will have trouble with him. Bosh will always have trouble against Kevin Garnett but that’s because Garnett is a freak and can afford to lay off Bosh and take away his drive while at the same time contesting his jumper. He can also stay with Bosh in the post making CB4′s life difficult, but that’s not what stopping me from calling the Boston game next week in our favor (see podcast). Chris Bosh summed up his offensive groove nicely:

“Everything is just opening up for me. I’m finally at 100 percent. It’s been a tough stretch for me but I just kept playing and kept pushing through it. I don’t feel I’m taking many bad shots. I’m getting off the double team really fast and I’m finding a lot of my teammates and putting them in good positions.”

The bolded part tells me he knows the difference. I can sleep better.

Today’s Andrea Bargnani paragraph has a mix of Rasho Nesterovic in it. It’s mainly because Rasho’s reduced playing time has completely taken him out of his rhythm and he’s struggling to do the few things he used to be good at: finding space for the open jumper, hitting the glass, putbacks etc. Now given Rasho’s struggles and the need for Bargnani to pick up his game, this observer says we may as well let Bargnani play through fouls until he fouls out and not use Rasho unless necessary as per matchup. Bargnani played 14 minutes and scored two points, a fry cry from what me and David Moro were predicting after the Kings game. He didn’t screw up too badly, yeah he allowed an offensive rebound, passed up shots he should’ve taken and picked up cheap fouls but in my opinion he didn’t even stick around long enough to actually have a slim chance at having a decent game. I don’t blame Sam Mitchell, his concern is with winning the game and he tried to match the Hawks’ athleticism with Delfino, Parker and Moon which got the job done. It comes back to Andrea earning his minutes, except that he’s just not interested. I’ll even go ahead and buy Bryan Colangelo’s 5-year plan theory but he’s talking about player development taking that long, right? Or does he mean we have to wait 5 years before Bargnani plays a game with the same level of intensity and effort as Kris Humphries?

The third quarter has undone so many times that I feared for us after Atlanta opened it on a 13-2 run while our offense was playing Mr. Hyde. Jamario Moon’s propensity to jump in the passing lanes is meeting success over the last two games and he’s picking off passes in transition, guarding the post and getting deflections aplenty (something that should’ve long been a stat in NBA box scores). Moon was the key in triggering our third quarter run punctuated by two Anthony Parker threes which created a 7 point cushion and hopefully silenced those who think that Parker has been a major problem with the Raptors this year. Another solid game by Parker who’s been coming on strong as the season’s getting older, it’s called hitting mid-season form which is where veteran’s start getting in their stride and rookies start tailing off. AP’s been solid for most of the year, unfortunately for him he’s had a few zero point games which result in fans calling for his head. If you check his per-48 minute statis, they’re the same as last year. Yes, we need to upgrade the 2 spot, but not now.

Joey Graham is making it really hard for us to trade him and Juan Dixon isn’t helping either. The two players most likely to be traded if one is going to materialize scored a combined 4 points while having 2 turnovers. Graham is so far behind Moon and Delfino in the depth chart that the only way he gets into the game is when BC winks to Smitch from the tunnel. And when he does manage to get in, things aren’t pretty (how’s Danny Granger doing?). He looks about as comfortable as Bargnani on the low-post and you only have to watch a couple minutes before an ungodly turnover follows. He was supposed to be our tough hard-nosed slasher who could D up the opposition’s best player, instead he’s researching D-League accommodation with Maceo Baston. Imagine my shock when I heard that Maceo Baston was dressed up for this game, it almost looked like this was the game he might get some run. Sam is so mean, getting Baston’s hopes all high for nothing.

So far the 4 in 5 stretch has been going exactly as predicted with Philly being the decisive game in determining whether we stay .500 or improve our record by two games in this easier January stretch. Philly was blown out in Boston tonight with Iguodala playing 40 minutes, they’re 2-8 in their last 10 and the Raptors will be going for the kill in this one. We’ll do a mini celebration only if the Raptors win tomorrow because if we lose that, it’s like we didn’t gain any ground at all.

One-Liners:

* Kapono. Shot. Slowly. Coming. Back.

* Jose Calderon made up for his early bad pass intercepted by Josh Smith for a dunk by dishing 9 dimes.

* I don’t have a single complaint of Bosh today.

* Johnson should be suspended by the league for more than one game. There’s no doubt about his malicious intent.

* The Raptors and Hawks is turning into a rivalry, something which is good because right now aside from the Knicks and Nets, we really got nothing.

* Tonight’s win will mean little if we don’t win tomorrow.

* What is the point of having Maceo Baston on this team if he doesn’t play a single minute for months on end? Maybe we should fee free up the roster spot for a D-League rebounder or scorer? Just a thought.

* Sam deserves a lot of credit for sticking with his big guns instead of playing Kapono, Dixon and Bargnani for extended minutes. Kapono played well hitting both his shots but this isn’t the matchup for him.

* Jack Armstrong makes these telecasts so much better.

* What do people see in Tyron Lue? Every time I see him, I just remember Iverson stepping over him in the finals.

* The Hawks became more physical in the second half and the intensity of the game picked and the Raptors and more specifically Bosh, Moon, and Parker were equal to the task.

* Here’s the game in six minutes, thanks to monuow.

* Please make a constructive criticism about this blog, it really helps sometime.

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