The Rudy Gay trade was as tough to support as it was to criticize. Watching Ed Davis finally begin to blossom with consistent minutes had been one of the few bright spots of the season, and losing him was a sentimental loss. Before even mentioning my feelings on Gay, let it be known that I have no interest in being a part of the Rudy Gay defenders vs. haters comment section turf war. To that end, I’ll avoid getting into salary cap realities or the ‘nerdery’ of efficiency arguments. I think that Gay is a really good player; he’s a borderline all-star, makes his team better defensively and has been tremendous in the clutch. What I can’t get past is how Memphis was willing to trade him because he was the third best player on a team that still wasn’t championship calibre. How can that possibly be the description of a franchise player? I’ve been a Toronto Maple Leafs fan for far too long to celebrate rationalizing a very good player as a great one. That’s how mediocre teams are made. The goal should be higher than just good enough to make the playoffs.

So what do Raptor’s fans have to be happy about this season? Terrence Ross’ dunk contest victory was fun to watch. But, for a fan-base that hasn’t been to the playoffs in five years, another dunk contest victory feels too much like getting a participant ribbon while watching the winning teams get their trophies. Am I happy for Terrence Ross? Absolutely. But am I happy? Not so much.
I don’t believe that the 2012-2013 season has been lost though. There are feel-good stories nestled inside that 26-44 record. And chief among them for me has been Amir Johnson.

When Amir Johnson was resigned to a five year, $30 million dollar contract in July of 2010, the response of Raptor fans was a collectively long and drawn out, sarcastic ‘Greeeaaaaaaaaaaaat.’ It wasn’t that we had any ill will towards Amir, but in a week when Chris Bosh had just dumped us on national TV, the third star player to spurn the franchise, we weren’t really in the best of moods. Amir Johnson demonstrated upside, but it was impossible to tell if that upside would ever be realized by a player who acted like a walking personal foul. Amir’s per 36 minutes stats suggested that he could be a double-double player, but he had averaged over 6 fouls in those per 36-minute stats for every year of his career up to that point. If it seemed to you like Amir Johnson was always in foul trouble when you watched on TV, it’s because he was. This explained why he had never averaged more 24 minutes a game, chaining his potential.

The 2010-2011 season seemed to validate both the investment and the trepidation over Amir Johnson. He bumped his per game numbers in minutes, rebounds and points up, demonstrating both improvement and potential. But fouls continued to contain him. Johnson played 24 minutes a game most nights because he had to be sat down with fouls, not because he didn’t belong out there. He also played the same position as the Raptors highest paid player, Andrea Bargnani, and their new first round draft pick, Ed Davis. The only national attention Amir got this season was a mention in Bill Simmons worst contracts in the league column as the punch line of a Bryan Colangelo joke. The optimism remained more in potential than reality.

Between the lockout and the 23-43 record, last season seemed like a lost season for the Raptors. What was noteworthy to see though was how much better they did with Amir Johnson getting more minutes when Andrea Bargnani went down. The advanced stats backed up the eye test, as the Raptors were more than 7 points per 100 possessions better when Amir was on the floor compared to when he was on the bench. That very quietly made Johnson one of the most valuable players on the team, and reason to look forward to his 2012-2013 season.

During this past 2012-2013 season, Amir Johnson has not disappointed. Johnson has been a defensive rock for the Raptors. The Raptors have a defensive efficiency rating of 104.9 (that’s 104.9 points per 100 possessions) when Johnson is on the floor, which would be good for 12th place overall, between Philadelphia and Miami. However, when Johnson sits, the Raptors defense gives up a defensive rating of 111.3, which is only a fraction better than the league worst and historically bad Sacramento Kings and Charlotte Bobcats. Johnson’s defense is largely the product of effort, as he is willing to play the grunt work of fighting for defensive rebounds and moving opposing big men off the spots where they want the ball. This kind of effort was on display when the Raptors beat the visiting Clippers back on February 1st. Without Chris Paul, the Clippers had still been winning with Blake Griffin scoring and facilitating from the low post. Amir Johnson had the task of stopping Griffin, one of the strongest power forwards in the league. He did so by bullying Griffin off the low block before he could get the ball, and then not allowing him to back his way down once he got it. The Raptors would double with their second big man and Griffin would be forced to pass the ball back out. This kind of defense is a lot more work than it sounds like, and the patience it requires is uncommon, especially against someone as strong and talented as Griffin. By the end of the 3rd quarter, Griffin was visibly frustrated by Johnson, and spent most of the 4th quarter on the bench.

It’s not just defense out of the post for Johnson, who is leading the team in blocks despite being an undersized centre. His improved timing on defensive rotations from the weak side has his blocks up to 1.3 per game. The fact that he’s putting up more blocks and less fouls while playing more minutes is evidence of a new found patience. Johnson has always been an energetic player willing to play his heart out, but defense requires staying on your feet for pump fakes, moving your feet instead of reaching and challenging shots instead of trying to block them every time. Johnson’s energy is a great gift, but the enthusiasm that came with it got him in to foul trouble, removing him from the game. As he has learned when to rotate, improved his footwork and, perhaps most importantly, his patience, he has seen his fouls finally start to go down. This has improved his defense, and let him spend more time on the court to reveal a developing offensive game.

Amir Johnson has also been a pleasant surprise on the offensive side of the court this season. The Raptors are a better offensive team than the Lakers when Johnson plays, with an offensive efficiency rating of 109.7, which is good enough to crack the top 10 in the league. However, with Johnson on the bench, the Raptors offence ranks even with that of the Orlando Magic and Minnesota Timberwolves, uncomfortably close to the bottom dregs of the league. Besides being the best offensive rebounder on the team, Amir Johnson brings his real value to the game away from the basket. The NBA is dominated by the pick and roll and plays that utilize screens to get wing players open looks from outside or lanes to drive to the basket. Finding a big man who can thrive in this environment is more difficult than you might think. This kind of offensive system means less touches down low for the big man, and ego is always a factor in the NBA (just ask Dwight Howard how he feels about it). But more than that, it requires an exceptional amount of effort from those big men, who have to work a lot harder than most to lug their 6’10, 270 lbs. bodies all over the court. When the ball changes possession, a team’s centre is almost always standing right underneath his team’s net, either rebounding or inbounding the ball. He has to sprint up the floor all the way to the same spot on the other end of the court while the offence sets. Then he has to run up to the top of the 3-point arc to plant his feet and set a screen for a teammate that results in his defender running into him. It’s a lot of work, and to do it well requires speed and enthusiasm, or proves ineffective (again, just ask Dwight Howard, who hasn’t met a screen he actually wanted to set this entire season). Johnson does this tirelessly, and it is often what frees up the middle of the court for DeRozan or Gay to drive, or frees up Lowry, and especially Calderon before him, to take a shot at the elbow or hit a cutting teammate going to the basket. Johnson is a crucial part of setting the whole team’s offence in this way, but he gets to be a part of it in the high-low pick and roll.

Amir Johnson pick and roll

Johnson has proven to be an absolute beast in setting a high pick for the point guard, sealing his own man and rolling hard to the basket. Squint your eyes a little, and you might think he’s Amare Stoudemire or Tyson Chandler as he takes an easy pass for Tomahawk dunk after Tomahawk dunk. This offence comes in part from an improving skill set and touch around the basket, but it is much more the result of a tireless effort and willingness to play a team role.

As impressive as the efficiency numbers are, it’s that last point that has endeared Amir Johnson the most to Toronto fans. Toronto is a hockey crazed market, where we celebrate a grinder who works hard in the corners, drops his gloves and gets stitched up on the bench as much or more than a flashy goal scorer. Raptors fans can see Amir Johnson playing this role for the Raptors, and he has found himself adored as a result. Playing with this haircut and showing up at a Leafs game like this has endeared him even more to a city that is longing for an emotional attachment to a basketball player who actually wants to play here too. Don’t get me wrong; Amir Johnson is not going to be Hakeem Olajuwon. But when you hear the roar of the Air Canada Centre crowd whenever Amir subs in for Andrea Bargnani, it certainly sounds as if they think he is by comparison. While his style of play has endeared Amir Johnson to Toronto fans, his improvement has had an even bigger impact on the play of the team. And when that comes from a 25 year old who is under contract and happy to be in Toronto, it’s reason enough to look forward to next winter.

Andrew Thompson
@MarmaladeJacko

Certain events make you perk up and take notice at the goings-on of a winning team. New York, a team flush with talent, who found a gem keeping the pine warm, with quality talent from 1 through 10, who only needed to change the voice on the bench to get back to playing basketball worthy of a playoff team are relevant for the second time in the same season.

After running D’Antoni out of town, Carmelo has decided (or rather was forced) to play with pride and conviction; not taking any possessions off. Not a great deal has changed with Woodson taking the helm, except the prima-donna winning the power struggle and realizing there are no more excuses; ladies and gentlemen, I present you the Knicks.

After getting their assess handed to them on Wednesday, the Raptors have a chance at restitution on their home-court to bring the season series even at two a piece.

Areas of focus:

• Need to be aggressive defending that high pick-and-roll against Lin and Stoudemire. Calderon, who played a staggering 40 minutes on his first game back from injury, is going to have a hell of a time keeping Lin under wraps. With Bayless potentially out (or playing injured), he’s going to be called on for heavy minutes again, and needs to really make Lin work for everything. He’s going to need to fight through screens aggressively, and hope he gets some help on the hedge from Bargnani or Gray (or Amir or Davis). He can get some back on offense, by forcing boy wonder to contend and play on his heals.
• Defensive rotations need to be tight, and smooth. Far too often, when Stoudemire went at Bargnani, the other big would rotate, and no one would pick up Chandler who licked his lips at being open under the rim.
• The Knicks are 10 deep, meaning they have 5-guys who can come in, and change the complexion of the game; especially on the wing where the Raptors haven’t been so weak in recent memory. Again, if Bayless is playing, it changes things for the Raptors, but a bench rotation of Forbes, Kleiza and Butler makes me hate basketball something fierce.
• Q: You know what I loved about DeRozan on Wednesday against the Bulls? A: He curled off that high screen, caught the pass, and kept going to the rack; on multiple plays. This is the kind of Rip Hamilton basketball I love seeing from shooting guards. His 17 against the Knicks was so utterly ineffectual, it has Arse dropping giving his life-sized DeRozan blowup doll the camel clutch in rage. Lets see him attack the Knick defense in the paint more than five-times tonight.
• Protect the glass; I mean seriously. We have four forwards, who are tall, mobile and athletic (Gray not so much), and the Knicks dominated the offensive glass 16-4. For those who were counting, that translated in exactly 12 more possession…Raptors lost by 19, you do the math.
• Where the hell is Bargnani? I realize he missed a ton of games via injury, but in the eight games since his return, he’s averaging 12.5pts 4.8rebs 2.1ast on 33.7% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. This is unacceptable, and leads me to believe that he’s either not fully recovered from his injury, or has reverted to his limp noodle ways.

The Knicks are 5.5 point favourites tonight, and if Bayless isn’t ready to go, it’s going to take a full-team, full-48 effort to defend home court. Since those types of efforts have been few and far between, my monies on New York to put this away by the 4th; Knicks by 13.

Photo Credit: Chris Chambers/Getty Images

Ryan Degama, from Celtics Hub, James Herbert and AltRaps answered three of my burning questions:

Read an interesting trade scenario on ESPN (Insider required) with Garnett going to Denver for Afflalo, Miller and Mozgov; good trade personally. Why hasn’t Ainge began breaking up the big three, and getting picks/prospects for them while he can?

Ryan: There are a few reasons nothing has happened yet. Part of it is that teams are still evaluating what they need and part of it is that you nail the expected return: picks and prospects. That’s a serious bounty and Boston’s early performance has done little to strengthen Ainge’s negotiating position. Now that Paul Pierce has returned to all-star form, Ainge has more to work with, but there’s no guarantee he’ll get an offer he considers palatable. It’s possible Boston will ride out the season as is.

Alt: I’ve hated Ainge my whole life. Hated him as a Blue Jay and as soon as he became a Celtic, well, it was all over. So, in short, he hasn’t moved on anything because he can’t cross a street without calling someone for help. Much like when we traded Carter, Danny knows that what he gets in return for any of these guys will show what kind of a gunslinger he is. The fact he was willing to part with Rondo before any of these guys tells you something. He will make a move closer to the deadline, especially as the Sixers get further and further ahead of them. You’ll see a desperate perennial playoff team give up some good picks and current talent for one of the two. Pierce is untouchable.

James: Ainge has directly said that he would break this team up if he received a good enough offer. Who’s going after these guys, though? You’re only taking one of them if you’re a contender, and what contender has spare young players that would actually help the Celtics? Maybe some team would like to shed salary for Garnett’s $21 million expiring contract, but would Boston want a bunch of overpaid guys? Would Ainge want Joe Johnson? I doubt it.

Can the Celtics, as presently constructed, still win a championship?

Ryan: Their offense is on the wrong side of mediocre and their rebounding is bottom third in the league. Those two factors guarantee an early round exit come playoff time. Add the team’s collective age and inclination to injury and it’s all over unless you really want to delve deep into “everything goes right” scenarios. Those haven’t been hallmarks of the last few years in Boston.

Alt: If they were able to pull out series wins in 4-5 games, yes. They would get a breather between sets (presumably) and it gives their coaching staff time to get them working on the possible next opponent. Give that time to an Allen, a Garnett, a Rondo, then you have a shot. The real hitch is beating the West in the final. Good luck with that.

James: Can they? Yeah. In the same way that Portland or Denver can if a lot of things go their way. The Celtics are not contenders, barring a major injury elsewhere. They’ll be better come playoff time and we shouldn’t forget how bad they looked during some parts of 2009-2010 before making it to the Finals, but as constructed they are not in the same class as Miami, Chicago, and Oklahoma City.

Will it be a bar fight tonight?

Ryan: Feels like it could be a rough one after Kleiza smacked down Rondo last time. But I don’t think it will be a close one if the Celtics are interested in playing defense (sometimes they’re not) and moving the ball on offense, like they did against the Cavs last night.

Alt: Casey has these guys playing scrappy. You throw Scarborough out there to lay some shoulders and I envision some chippiness. If it’s a close game you know they will zero in on Jose’s touchiness and, especially without Andrea playing cold hand Luke, he could fall for it. That’s okay, though…we have Kleiza who has taken the role of the NBA’s version of a viper.

James: I just watched the Raptors get blown out by the Hawks at home and it wasn’t for a lack of effort. They’ll fight, but without Bargnani they’re going to struggle to put points up against this Boston defense. It all depends on if Toronto can contain Pierce, the Celtics’ primary creator in the absence of Rajon Rondo — if it’s a blowout, it’s not a bar fight.

Injuries

Toronto
Bargnani – Calf, out indefinitely

Boston
Rondo – Wrist, day-to-day
Dooling – Hip, day-to-day
O’Neal – Knee, day-to-day

Match-ups

Point Guard
I’m really liking the effort Bayless has been putting up since his return from injury; what helps most is he’s protecting the ball much better. Calderon’s been consistent. I realize he’s been starting at the 2 the last two games, but I just don’t see DeRozan covering Paul Pierce and James Johnson taking on Kevin Garnett. So with Rondo out (probably out), Bayless will be backing up Calderon and playing some shooting guard in relief of DeRozan while Colangelo sorts out a trade for Barbosa.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
I took a lot of heat when I said DeRozan’s game against the Nets wasn’t that great (especially getting to the foul line 16 times against a D-league level team). When you such dramatic swings from game-to-game, you don’t get love from this corner of the interwebs when you make a pretty against a weak-ass team. Head-to-head against Ray Allen, DeRozan’s been mediocre for a few seasons, I’m not saying Ray-Ray is going to drop 30, but he will do 15-20; mix that with DeRozan’s love affair with the jumper and Boston’s defensive resurgence (4th in defensive efficiency)…it’s going to be a long night for the prodigal son.
Edge: Celtics

Small Forward
Paul Pierce may be old, but his game was never dependant on his athleticism; it’s that slow-motion first step that’s killer. JJ and Kleiza have been playing nice, but if their combined production matches Pierce’s, I’ll be surprised.
Edge: Celtics

Power Forward
I’d like to see Amir or Magloire nail Garnett in the face with an elbow tonight, then have Calderon bark in his ear about it. This would be a win for me.
Edge: Celtics

Center
All my match-up assumptions were based on the Raptors not going small ball because of the bad mis-matches at the 2 and 3 if they do. Maybe they go that route, in which case half of what I’ll be watching the Chicago/Philly game (I’ll be watching that game anyways, Love D-Rose), but maybe they try and match-up a bit smarter, and not let Allen and Pierce take it easy on the bench in the 2nd half because they built up a 20 point 1st half lead.
Edge: Even, but who really cares

Keys to the Game

• Ball movement: the Celtics are a damn good defensive team, but they are old. The Raptors need to make them work on the defensive end of the court and really attack the paint; Garnett and O’Neal aren’t what they used to be. Don’t settle for jumpers!
• Tight defensive rotations: with Rondo out, the Celtics don’t have a guy who can consistently break down the defense and create for the rest of the team. Can’t give Allen and Pierce open looks from the perimeter (the Raptors have done a great job of allowing this this season) or they will kill us; I can’t stress this enough.
• Get into Garnett’s head: this wont win us the game, but I want to see someone mess the SOB a bit…hate him…

The Line

There’s no line at time of publishing, but I’ll go ahead and put a line in the sand: Celtics  by 13.

The Raptors finally broke out of their 0-for-showing with Bargnani injured this season, and got a win with the franchise on the sidelines. Individual plays and levels of effort aside, you have to appreciate this one; the Raptors never lost a quarter, and dictated the flow and tempo throughout. In fact, had it not been for early solid free-throw shooting in the first half, and some above average offensive rebounding by the Nets, this would have been one of those games where a Nets blogger’s post-game would have been a picture of tightly curled turd on the Nets logo.

An aside to the win, the Raptors managed 94 points without Bargnani and Barbosa. Granted some of that has to do with Jersey’s lack of…everything, but the Raptors did as good a good as job as possible with defensive rotations and assignments that you could expect. I mean, Deron Williams dropped 24 points, but it took him 20 shots (3-10 3FG), and some heroic off the ball movement to get good looks at the rim.

Case in point, in the 2nd quarter, Williams started at the top of the arc, ran around the low block, brushed past two low screens, came around to the top of the arc, caught and shot the ball with Bayless on his ass. He hit the three (without as much space as you’d think), but the point is he wasn’t blowing by pylons to get his baskets. He’s the type of player that can make those kind of plays happen, the rest of the team couldn’t and caved to the Raptor defense.

I like Calderon and Bayless starting in the back-court together. As much as Bayless offends me with his decision making, when he doesn’t have to be the floor general, he makes things happen. He also takes pressure off Jose to cover the likes of Deron Williams. I’d like to explore a lineup of Calderon, Bayless, JJ, Bargnani and Amir with DeRozan, Kleiza and Davis as the first three off the bench for a few games. Bayless attacks the paint off the bounce as much as possible, something DeRozan and his new-found love for the jumper should be doing. It gives a bit more balance, which takes me to DeMar…

…I wasn’t that impressed with DeRozan’s game last night. Sure, 27pts on 8-12FG 11-16FT looks great on the boxscore, but it didn’t sit right with me. Three times in the first half, DeRozan pulled up on the break and popped (missed) a jumper when he could have made a move to the basket and either converted or drew a foul. His 27 should have been at least 30. The second problem I had was 17 of 27 came in the second half with the Nets thinking about dinner and watching Californication.

The saving grace of his second half “dominance” was that he got to the line 12 times and hit 9 of them. Had they all been jumpers, I guarantee we would have been watching him shoot jumpers at an even more alarming rate for the rest of the season. Not sure if it’s just me or is his development looking a bit like VC’s? He doesn’t have the same finish Carter had at this stage of his career, but we watched VC go from a guy who wanted to break the backboard, to the POS jump shooter he became. I’m way to lazy to pull stats on this (maybe Liston can put something for statophile), but I’ve noticed myself sighing with more regularity that he’s shooting instead of driving. I can live with the shooting if it continues to improve, but only if he gets to the line more; 4 times a game is half of what of what he should be doing.

Photo Credit: James Herbert via Twitter

Obviously others chipped in and contributed…just that the headline was perfect and I didn’t want to change it: Calderon moved the ball around aside from a couple retarded passes, but the defense wasn’t there; Barbosa did DeRozan’s job and scored the ball; Kleiza did Amir’s and Davis’ job and grabbed rebounds off the bench; and James Johnson’s double-double was so natural it makes you want to choke him out on nights he puts up crap.

I have nothing positive to say about this game. It took 42 minutes from Bargnani, after missing six games, to win this one. 42 MINUTES! You have to assume he still isn’t 100% since that’s how the pro’s work. Amir and Ed played so terrible that Casey couldn’t spare more than 6 minutes at the power forward. Think about what that means for a minute; guys that were considered core members of the future could only give an injured man, who missed six straight games with injury, 6 minutes of relief against the one of the few teams in the league I wouldn’t trade the Raptors straight up for.

That last notion is a conversation I’ve been having with a lot of folks over the last few days: if you were to compare the Raptors to every other team in the league as currently constructed, you’d be hard-pressed not to like the other squad*. In this instance, the Suns have the best player of the two teams, Steve Nash, but he’s old and dreaming of finishing his career in New York. If he still had a year or two left on his contract, you could make the case that it would be better to rebuild around him…I really want to know what people think of this, put it in the comments.

As for Arse’s predictions:

Margin after first: -8 -> 10
Margin at halftime: -4 -> 4
Margin at end of third: -16 -> 8
Final score margin: -9 -> 3
Best Raptor: James Johnson -> Would have been if Bargnani wasn’t there
Worst Raptor: Ed Davis -> Yup, see Roll Call
Shots of Suns cheerleaders: 6 -> I counted 7 on LPBB
DeMar DeRozan three attempts: 4 -> 0, thank jah
Amir Johnson fouls: 5 -> 3, but didn’t play enough to get there
Barbosa final point tally: 18 -> 19
Rasual Butler moments of retardedness: 3 -> 2
Dwayne Casey yelling “go go go”: 2 -> No idea, I wont lie and say 6+
Jose Calderon assists: 8 -> 11

One thing I did like was the starting lineup, not that they played very long together, but Gray and Bargnani lining up together is more formidable than anything else we can muster. Next step is to insert Barbosa into the starting five, and make DeRozan the first wing off the bench; could be what he needs…in Utah tonight, pre-game up soon.

* Of the ten worst teams in the league, a case could be made that only Charlotte and Detroit are worse off than the Raptors

Photo Credit: Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

I’ve watched more Clippers games this seasons than the rest of my life combined; they almost play my perfect brand of basketball…Blake needs to take it to the rack more and they’d be perfect.

Had a few words with Jovan Buha from the Clippers Blog:

Knowing what you know now, did the Clippers pay too high a price for Paul?

No. I look at it this way — are the Clippers set up better now or in the future after the trade? I say both. There’s no way L.A. would be consistently beating elite teams with last year’s squad and simply the additions of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups. In the future, with time to gel and additions through free agency and trades, they’re only going to get better. If the last four games have proven anything, Paul is the Clippers’ offensive maestro and the difference-maker from being a playoff team and being a contender.

Is it a big problem that Blake likes to shoot long jumpers more than he attacks the rim like a rabid animal off the high screen?

Yes, it’s a huge problem. Blake’s jumper, while improved, is far from a proven product. His outside shooting efficiency is actually down from 33 percent to 31 percent this year but that’s more of a reflection of his 4.8 attempts per game (too high and as a result, lowers his percentage out there). When he attacks the rim, he’s much, much better (71.0 percent shooting at the rim). A pick-and-roll with Paul is much more efficient if Griffin rolls towards rim destruction.

Is Neil Olshey executive of the year?

Yes, thus far it appears Neil Olshey should be the executive of the year. He turned a laughingstock franchise into a fringe contender with the Chris Paul trade and signings of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups (for $2,000,032!). Who else made better moves this offseason?

Injuries

Toronto
Andrea Bargnani – Calf, should play
Jerryd Bayless – game-time decision, should play

Los Angeles
Chris Paul – Hamstring, game-time decision
Caron Butler – Knee, questionable

Match-ups

Point Guard
Paul is sick. Mo Williams is a solid back-up. Bledsoe is better than any back-up we got. And Chauncey can make it happen if he gets the call. That’s about all she wrote.
Edge: Clippers

Shooting Guard
At least DeMar showed up for the Blazers game on Friday; it took him 21 shots to get 22 points, but at least he got to the line 10 times. He hasn’t stepped up in Bargnani’s absence, but neither has anyone else really. While Billups wont break him down off the bounce, he will make him pay for every inch of open space DeRozan gives him and play tight defense on our boy.
Edge: Clippers

Small Forward
It’s going to be frustrating to watch a juicy, out of shape Caron Butler make things happen against our defense, but that’s exactly what’s going  down this afternoon. If Caron doesn’t go, the Raptors small forwards are actually better than anything the Clippers have.
Edge: Clippers

Power Forward
Bargnani’s supposed to play,  but he’s been sitting for over a week now and wont be crisp. There isn’t a whole he can do to control Griffin if he gets it in his head, but if he isn’t too much out of game shape, he can make things difficult on the phenom. Expect too see a lot of dunks and offensive rebound-put-backs tonight from the Clips, though.
Edge: Clippers

Center
Amir Johnson is a poor mans DeAndre Jordan. You could make the case that Amir has better offensive weapons, but what he does better on defense, Jordan more than makes up for on defense. The Raptors have more depth here, but Jordan is a work horse; it might even out since DeAndre doesn’t do enough outside of blocking shots and dunking (work with me here, I couldn’t give them a clean sweep).
Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

1. Let Blake shoot the ball every time he gets it; it’s frustrating to watch, but he loves the jumper, and shouldn’t be a go-to thing for him. Off the high pick-n-roll, let the guy roll and force Paul create some genius on every possession.
2. Control the boards; outside of Griffin and Paul, the rest of the team is pretty average to mediocre.
3. Make the Clippers work defensively; Chris Paul is injured and limping, Jordan can be bated with a pump-fake and Blake isn’t making all defensive team (although he can make highlight blocks). The Clippers are going to score, nothing the Raptors can do to stop that, but if we make them work a little, hopefully the early start time will mess with them

The Line

The Clippers are 9.5 point favourites at home with an over/under of 184.5; I’m setting the over/under of Blake and Jordan dunking at 10. The Clippers dropped a heart breaker against the Timberwolves on Friday, and should be plenty pissed off today. If Bargnani is playing, and isn’t too rusty, the Raptors should cover. It’s starting to get more serious than just covering games and looking at the bright-side of things, though. The Raptors have dropped 7 in a row, and could easily drop the next 5 on the road. Have to make a stand sometime, yea?

Call me a fan of the Pacers; they are the type of team I try to build in fantasy basketball, but always end up with something closer to the Wizards (I suck at fantasy). The last game saw the Raptors put up a lot of really bad jumpers, while the Pacers annoyingly hit a lot of open ones. The Raptors offense has gotten better since that game, but the Raptors need to get some cheaper baskets to open things up some.

Tim Donahue and Jared Wade from Eight Points, Nine Seconds (a Reggie Miller reference) were gracious enough to answer a few of my questions:

True or False: David West was the best free agent signing of the summer.

Tim True – Granted, I haven’t done an exhaustive comparison, but I’m hard-pressed to imagine any other free agents bringing as much of what their new team needed – toughness, maturity, leadership – as David has brought the Pacers. Despite individual numbers that are low for him (18.3 PER, .430 eFG%), he has been a big part of Indy’s 7-3 start.

Jared True. Look at West’s individual numbers and he doesn’t jump out as someone who has been a major difference-maker so far, but just his presence has been huge. He has been a key cog in the spacing and ball movement that has helped Indy’s starting lineup be the second best 5-man unit in the league so far among those that have played at least 100 minutes. And this doesn’t capture his effect off the court. He is a no-nonsense, grown-up presence in the locker room who all the players have praised for being a team leader since day one.

There’s been some rumblings about Grangers role on the team moving forward with the emergence of Paul George; does he finally get traded, and what will the Pacers want in return? (who are you pining for?)

Tim I have never really put much stock into any Granger trade rumors. He’s what I call a “zero sum” trade asset – meaning it’s hard to do a trade where you significantly improve the team after taking Danny off of it. Paul George isn’t ready yet, and wing depth isn’t great for the Pacers. Indy can get more value out of Danny on the floor than they can in any trade – at least for now.

Jared I don’t see any way Larry Bird trades Granger this season. Perhaps if he can’t pull out of this shooting tailspin, but then you’re not going to get much back. In the summer, I could see it. But George would have to show more. Danny remains the most dynamic offensive player on the team and while West and Hibbert have shown something up front, the Pacers would need to get an equivalent perimeter threat back in return.

Is it time to start mentioning Larry Bird in the same breath with the other top executives in the league?

Tim I think it’s time to recognize that Bird is a good, solid head of the Pacer organization, but so many test remain before you can consider him a top exec. Keep in mind, the Pacers haven’t won more than 37 games since he took over from Donnie Walsh. I love his patience, and that alone may put him in the top half of the execs of the league – but it all has to translate to success on the floor and in the playoffs first.

Jared It’s too early for that, but he has done a much better job navigating the salary cap hell Indiana was in than most people were giving him credit for even six months ago. He just waited and waited and waited. His endgame was seizing an opportunity to trade for a guy every team would love on their bench in George Hill and signed West to a top-notch contract, all the while stacking up young, cheap, promising assets. The roster is probably still one big piece away from being any more than the Hawks have been the past few seasons, but even that is a big leap forward from the doldrums this franchise has muddling through the past four years.

Match-ups

Point Guard
It pains me to say this, but we’re missing Bayless; Jose needs some relief. Collison made a lot of things happen for his teammates last game, and has show range on his jumper. I’d rather Calderon keeps him on the perimeter and gets a hand up on him when he shoots then let him start attacking the defense off the bounce then kicking to an open wing for a three.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
DeMar can’t give Paul George 7 open looks from beyond the arc like he did last game; or the guy is going to hit 4 of him like he did. Not sure wtf is going on with DeRozan, but he’s had since Wednesday off, and needs to do better. An easy way is to get to the line, which requires him to attack paint, which requires him to get his head in the game. Put some pressure on George on defense, and hopefully his legs wont be in every shot he takes.
Edge: Indiana

Small Forward
It’s great to have Kleiza back; Wednesday against the Kings he took away 14 minutes from Butler/Johnson. It’s not like he’s going to play 30 minutes tonight, but a gradual increase in court time will only help things out. I can deal with 10 minutes each for Butler and Johnson a game; max. Good luck with Granger tonight.
Edge: Indiana

Power Forward
I like the different looks Indiana can throw at the 4. Between Hansbrough and West, they can trot out beast after beast. If Bargnani can’t go tonight (listed as questionable), Davis wont be cutting it. If he can, he’s going to be playing injured, which could make things worse.
Edge: Indiana

Center
Get used to seeing this tonight: Hibbert  backs Johnson/Magloire down from the elbow for a layup. The play from any forward other than Bargnani has been inconsistent at best. While Amir has had some big games recently, he’s had a tough time with large centers, only mustering 2 points the last time out (although he did grab 10 boards). I’m not high on this match-up at all.
Edge: Indiana

Injuries

Toronto
Jerryd Bayless – Ankle, day-to-day
Andrea Bargnani – Calf, questionable
Aaron Gray – Heart, out

Indiana
George Hill  - Back, should play
Tyler Hansbrough – Eye, should play
Danny Granger – Ankle/Food Poisoning, should play

Keys to the Game

• Rotate on the perimeter; the Pacers had 10 very clean looks from beyond the arc the last time out. Have to make them work for their baskets, and not give them 3 Mississippi’s to shoot
• Defend the paint; Magloire did a good job on Hansbrough, frustrating the kid. The front court needs to throw elbows, knock people down, and not concede an inch
• No second chances; I’d like to see the Raptors give up less than 10 offensive rebounds tonight. The Pacers will take plenty jumpers, with plenty rebounds
• Control the pace; can’t get into an up-and-down game with the Pacers. They have a lot of guys who can get out on transition and open things up. Need to slow it down and grind them into the ground

The Line

Nothing has been posted yet, but with Bargnani injured and possibly out, I don’t like the Raptors chances.

Photo Credit: Ron Turenne/NBAE via Getty Images

Barbosa: for one night at least, he was back to the Barbosa we need. Crisp passes, getting to the line (where he was a perfect 9/9), active hands on defense…it was good to see.

Bargnani: this is verging on redunkulous. His game is almost written by a Hollywood script night in and night out: get pushed around, ignore it, give up taking a 3 to get a high percentage shot, have one reverse, pull one never-seen-by-him-before defensive move out of nowhere, make your critics eat crow. He got off 25 shots and 9 free throws in 45 minutes of action and he looked like he would go full throttle in OT if needed. Incredible.

Butler: I’ll give $20 to the first person to take a picture of his vehicle’s gas cap opening because I’m sure it is surrounded by gashes from the nozzle. This guy just can’t find a hole and fill it. How he has escaped the boo birds by the local fans is mindblowing. 0 for 5 from deep and every time he hoisted you almost knew it wasn’t going in. Embarrassing.

Calderon: I can’t be the only one who was terrified to see what Jose would do tonight. Going up against Rubio with at least a few thousand more Spaniards watching online than there were Canadians at the ACC tonight, the proud Calderon was bound to be wound up more than Liston at a new release of Microsoft Excel. Happy to say, though, that this is an older/wiser/freshly shorn Calderon and he passed with a solid B.  He held Rubio in check and refused to be on the bad part of a highlight reel.

Carter: sweet momma….7 minutes, –17, no points, no assists, 2 fouls. If you had given him a jar of pickles to open tonight, I’d put my money on the jar.

Davis: I’m not going to say that, one again, I’m disappointed in Davis’ game and he underperformed against a team that he should do better against.  i will say that I am less disappointed in my dog who ate my roast beef dinner and drank 2 bottles of my Carlsberg then went to the bathroom on my newly purchased area rug. The excuses are running out for Davis and soon one has to wonder if Solomon was actually the most deserving of being sent to the DLeague.

DeRozan: he once again made an attempt to redeem himself late in the game but as was deftly pointed out by Mr. Armstrong, we need more out of a guy who represented the team at Allstar weekend and is constantly referred to as our future. There are times he seems disinterested.

A. Johnson: I know the season is just underway, but if there was ever a game to show the change in Amir, this was it. 30 minutes, with the majority coming against Kevin Love, almost a double double at the half, 7/9 from the floor, 5/6 from the line. Last year he would have been saddled with 3 fouls in 4 minutes and then pick up a quick 2 in the second. This year all he did was make Love look like he’d met his match. Phenomenal game.

J.Johnson: James didn’t fare as well against Love. Heck, he lasted one possession at one point where he came in for Amir, he fouled love in a few seconds and Casey swapped Amir back in immediately. Just like DeMar, he saved his soul in the 4th with 2 wonderful blocks that set the tone for the Raptors to finish the game. I have no doubt that he’ll be punished by watching a lot of video tomorrow, but that’s well deserved. We still need him playing like he did in game 1.

Driving the bus: Amir Johnson

Under the bus: Rasual Butler

Theme of the Game:

Barbosa: he hit one shot all night and it was one that went so high that God caught the ball, wiped it off with a towel, spun it on his finger, all while whistling Sweet Georgia Brown. Then Chuck Daly told him he had to give it back, which he did by letting it fall through the hoop without touching rim.  God celebrated and so did about 7000 at the ACC tonight.

Bargnani: okay, this is getting out of control. He smiled tonight. No, really. A smile and a laugh. On the court. At ACC. Ready for more?? It seemed genuine. This really could be the end of the world. Life insurance offices will be overrun tomorrow.  31 and 7 and it seemed effortless.

Butler: someone BBM’d me tonight asking if I felt the tremor. I merely responded that I was at the Raptors game and it was no earthquake, it was just Rasual crashing back down to earth. Didn’t hit a shot all night and kept trying from downtown even though it was apparent to everybody that Monday’s game was a flash in the pan. Nice to have Kapono back.

Calderon: Kyrie Kryptonite. Irving made it to the line and sunk his shots, but from the field he was held down like a 10 year old on his birthday getting the paddywhacks.  Another double double for Spanish Fly with 13pts and 11 assists. Not to be lost in all this: the evident disappearance of the handclap defense.

Carter: the one downside of Jose playing so well is less floor time for AC. I know he doesn’t have a ton of fans here, but I still think it’s important to get him out there to have him get familiar with the squad. This month’s schedule with Bayless out for a bit will require some time from the deep bench and someone with his pedigree is important to keep fresh.

Davis: good work, young fella. Sure it came against a team that we should beat on the second night of a back to back that looked disinterested from the start, but hopefully it’s a seed planted. Early on it looked like a repeat of every other game, but he stepped it up in the second half and made a team on their heels pay for their disinterest.

DeRozan: lawdy lawdy lawdy, TMZ has been reborn and he is proving that he can be a great piece to this team. He was feeling it from deep and he kept reloading and ended up taking 8 shots from downtown, hitting 5.  It was ideal DeMar: have fun, play hard, hit shots, defend well, smile.  Question for you, though: if it was an opposing player that pseudo-celebrated in front of the Raptors bench the way he did in front of the Cavs, would you be calling for his head?

G. Forbes: you are put in with 2 minutes left, you come in, hit a nice shot then come back down on the next possession, don’t pass the ball and put one up that probably cost you more bench time. Not a wise move. At all.

A. Johnson: not a lot on the stat sheet for him to be proud of, but he was laying lumber almost every minute he was on the floor. I don’t think there was one Cavs player that saw action that didn’t get some Amir sweat on him. He’s the kind of guy that can be used to deflate a tired opponent and he did exactly that tonight.

J.Johnson: ever since he ditched the hair and the headband he has played like he actually cares. He was jumping around like he heard there were pieces of gold on the rim all night, just too bad he felt he would double up if he took silly shots. Still, for a team like this, we need to learn to accept 50% effort as a B+ effort. Tonight he earned a solid B+.

Magloire: wasn’t a spectacular night for anybody from Toronto. Jamaal put in an effort that Hedo would be proud of. Inconsequential against a team that he should have had a great night going up against.

Driving the bus: DeMar DeRozan

Under the bus: Jamaal Magloire

Theme of the Game:

The Cavs are 3-2, and the Raptors should be 3-2; this is going to be an interesting season to say the least. The other night I had a thought that really made me uncomfortable; what if the Raptors win more games than they should? There are already lots of interesting themes developing (insider required). Couple that with the number of absolutely brutal teams there are in the east, and the solid effort being turned in so far game after game, and you could make the case that the Raptors could surprise and over achieve this season; jeopardizing their lottery status in the summer.

I know there are positives to both sides of this coin, but I’d rather grab at least one more solid draft pick, then try to make a run at things; need as many horses as you can get.

The Cavs frontcourt kept them in the game against the Raptors on opening night, grabbing 15 offensive rebounds, but an even attack from the Raptors spurred by ball movement (35 assists) and solid defensive rotations were more than they could handle.

Match-ups

Point Guard
Irving showed signs of promise, but he’s just not ready to be handed the reigns just yet. Sessions hurt the Raptors with his dribble penetration and three point shooting; nothing from mid-range. Calderon needs to close-out on him faster, and force him into a waiting defender. Same thing with Gibson, except I’d he’s less of a threat to get to the rack. Bayless will be a game-time decision, but the Raptors could use some of his off the bounce attack to mix things up and keep the Cavs defense guessing. Anthony Carter will be counted on to provide spurts of solid relief. I’m the first to admit I was wrong about his effectiveness; a couple minutes here and there is doable for the guy.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
Every Time DeRozan took the ball to the rim, he either scored or got put on the line. The Cavs don’t have the shot blocking ability to challenge DeMar when he gets to the rim. He has to keep on attacking Anthony Parker, who just doesn’t have  the foot speed to keep up. Barbosa will do the same to Gibson, who I can’t recall doing anything of value in the first game.
Edge: Raptors

Small Forward
Butler and Johnson did a good job of keeping Casspi off the board, and he hasn’t done much this season since, but  some guy named Alonzo Gee stepped up for the Cavs. With the performances that Butler has turned in the last games, the small forward spot is stabilizing some. As long as whoever is manning the 3-spot puts defense first, and tries to avoid taking retarded shots, the Raptors should do well.
Edge: Even

Power Forward
A repeat performance from Jamison would go a long way tonight; Bargnani and Davis kept Antawn to 6-20 shooting from the field. Bargnani couldn’t find his shot last week against the Cavs, but has since remedied that. With him going to the rack as often as he’s popping jumpers, he will be putting a lot of pressure on the Cavs frontcourt to step-up. The Raptors would have the frontcourt locked if Ed Davis would just come back. Since his solid performance against the Cavs last week, the sophomore has all but vanished. He could find his game tonight against the only team he’s played well against this season; I hope anyways. It was great to see Tristan Thompson play well, and he’s done a pretty good job so far considering, but the Cavs overstepped in taking him 4th with Valanciunas and Vesely on the board.
Edge: Raptors

Center
I foolishly didn’t give the Cavs the edge at center last game, and was proved wrong. Varejao still has a great deal to offer, putting up 14pts 10rebs (7 offensive) almost single handedly keeping the Cavs hanging around and in the game. Things have looked downhill for Amir since the first two games of the season, and there wasn’t much there for Magloire to begin with. Varejao will do his best to keep them in the game, but the Cavs have less talent than the Raptors.
Edge: Cavaliers

The Line

The gamblers have the Raptors as 4 point favourites, with an over/under of 190. The Cavs and Raptors have found themselves to be in an interesting situation so far this season. Both are doing better than expected, and playing hard. The Cavs took advantage of an easier schedule, beating the Pistons, Nets and Bobcats. The Raptors on the other hand should be 3-2 heading into tonight’s game. Bet the line; Raptors win 92-86.