Many of the top offenses in the league have been winning this year playing ‘small ball.’ Miami, New York, Golden State, Houston and (though to a lesser extent) Oklahoma City have all taken a cue from the D’Antoni Suns and had success spacing the floor with small ball, four shooter lineups. You have to look long and hard through the lists of Raptors 5 man lineups to find anything more than a brief trial of small ball spacing from Dwayne Casey. Given the lack of offensive creativity from the Raptors this past season and the core group of players they have under contract (particularly Rudy Gay, Landry Fields and yes, Andrea Bargnani), going small seems like an option the Raptors ought to have explored. I would argue that it’s the best way to get the most out of a lineup that a litany of long, overpaid contracts is going to make difficult to adjust.

First off, let’s be clear. I think that the Raptors are going to spend the bulk of their time playing Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas on the floor together. But Miami and Golden State both started and stuck with traditional lineups for much of the time as well. In both cases, however, their best crunch time units proved to be when they took out their second big and spread the floor with shooters. Casey paired Johnson and Valanciunas together often down the stretch with positive results, particularly on the defensive end. If Valanciunas can develop anything close to the kind of chemistry that Johnson had with the now departed Ed Davis, those two will be a lot of fun to watch. Having said that, for second quarter lineups when one of the bigs is resting, if one of those two is in foul trouble, for a change of pace or to exploit certain matchups, the Raptors should be going small with every chance they get.

Let’s look at what going small does for the Raptors piece by piece:

SPACING & THE WING PLAYERS

Whether by decision or not, the Raptors have assembled a starting 3 in Lowry-DeRozan-Gay whose games are all problematically similar. Each one of those guys likes to slash to the hoop. That’s not a problem on it’s own, but it becomes one when teams are able to crowd the paint with two bigs near the basket and two wing defenders slacking off of both Gay and DeRozan. Opposing teams are more than happy to give up 3-point looks to those two from around the arc and take away the paint instead. This is what often happened against good defenses in the months after the Gay trade. DeRozan and Gay are both shoot first, second and third mentality players when slashing to the basket. When you play that way and run in to four defenders down low, you’re going to end up short of the hoop with more turnovers than anything else. According to NBA.com stats, there wasn’t a single spot in the area surrounding the paint where Gay or DeRozan were anything remotely close to efficient shooting the ball, despite a high volume of attempts. Neither of those two are particularly good passers either, a problem that was compounded by the Raptors refusal to station a man in the corner.

The secret is long since out on the corner 3 being the best shot in basketball outside of a dunk/layup. Despite this, the Raptors starters were amongst the worst in the league in attempting corner 3s, perhaps because they didn’t start a wing player who is adept at shooting them. DeRozan and Gay don’t shoot a lot of corner 3s for a reason; they were a combined 29% from the corners in 2012-13 (pardon me for a moment). The reality is though, that those two are going to play a lot of time together, and for as long as they do, that pass to the corner is going to be wide open. Inserting someone like Terrence Ross to the lineup for either Valanciunas or Amir Johnson opens things up in two ways.

1)   It pulls a big away from the basket. More than likely, it pulls two away. This is because the opposing small forward is more likely to be guarding DeRozan or Ross, with the opposing power forward on Gay, thereby pulling him out of the paint and uncomfortably towards the 3-point line as well. Suddenly a Gay, DeRozan or Lowry drive to the hoop is a desirable thing with room to work in, as all 3 players finish over 50% of their shots when they get to the rim and draw a healthy amount of fouls while doing so.

2)   It presents an easy bail out pass to Ross in the corner if the defense does manage to collapse to the basket. Having shot 42% from the left side corner in his rookie season, that should be a shot that the Raps should be putting Ross in a position to take much, much more often.

Terrence Ross was brought in to the league to be a shooter. The Raps used him almost exclusively off the bench, running around screens for above the arc catch and shoots, which is not an easy shot. Having Ross plant in the left corner to create space for the slashers and spot up for easy 3s.

Casey stubbornly forced a traditional offence this past season with two bigs, Rudy Gay at the 3 and Kyle Lowry pretending to be a traditional bring the ball up the court and then pass first point guard. That set simply does not create a situation where DeRozan, Gay and especially Lowry are able to do what they do best. Those guys drive to the basket, and they actually do it very well when there is a room to do so. But they need space and shooters waiting in the corners in order to do so well.

LANDRY FIELDS

The closest the Raptors played to small ball was by using Alan Anderson, almost definitely not to be back next season, or Landry Fields. Landry Fields is problematic as a small ball 4 for several reasons. He’s not big enough to guard large power forwards, and he left his jump shot in New York, which takes away the offensive benefits of spacing the floor. Landry’s 3-point shooting career arc has been troublingly Affleckian thus far. He burst on the scene with a Good Will Hunting like 39% from deep, getting all sorts of critical acclamation and buzz. His second season 26% shooting percentage had Pearl Harbour and Reindeer Games written all over it, but he was able to continue riding out his A-list status and potential to a big paycheck this season, only to turn in a Paycheck, Jersey Girl and Gigli performance with 14% shooting from 3. Whether or not this metaphor means that Landry Fields will bounce back this season with The Town and Argo like shooting that allows him to be a valuable small ball power forward, especially off the bench, remains to be seen. If he can, he has a chance to earn his contract. He has adapted well to his inability to shoot by cutting backdoor to the basket from the corners when his man turns his back on him to help against someone else driving to the basket. That was Field’s best offensive look all season long, and it helps make up for some of the misses. But he can’t help out his teammates in spacing the floor unless he knocks down that corner 3 with consistency.

THE BIGS

Johnson and Valanciunas are both very well suited to play in this system. They’re both committed screen men in running the high-low pick and roll. Valanciunas has a lot of work to do as a lone rim protector, but it is simply a matter of time, rather than a lack of ability or understanding, until he is able to do so. Amir thrives in this role already. While Amir is a better defensive option in this lineup, the floor spacing would allow Valanciunas to get isolation opportunities working his post game down low. If the last month of the season was any indicator, Valanciunas getting the ball on the block with only one man to beat would be a welcome part to a healthier offense.

ANDREA BARGNANI?

It’s unclear whether or not Bargnani will be on the team come the fall. But, what comes at contrast with the eye test for anyone who watched him play and read his stat lines this past season, Bargnani was actually highly effective as a ‘stretch 4’ this past season. Well, at least his presence was highly effective for his teammates, I should say. The only small ball type lineups that Casey actually employed with anything close to regularity this past season was when he would play Bargnani at the 4. It seems like a contradiction of terms to say that playing a 7-footer at the power forward is going small, but the reality of how he plays on both ends of the court is that it is. He doesn’t protect the rim, rebound well or contain opposing bigs with his height and reach. On offence, he has no post game and lives along the 3 point line. Hate dislike this style of play from him as we all may, the surprising reality is that the two lineups where Bargnani played the most amount of minutes, both of which featuring Valanciunas playing centre, both outscored their opponents and resulted in an above average 3-point % for the team. His numbers were not fantastic in that time, but the space that he created proved effective for his teammates in a reasonably large 128-minute sample size. Whether or not this means that we have reason for calmed antagonism towards Bargnani this coming season, or that Ujiri will actually have a sales-pitch with which to trade him, who knows. But his presence does show what floor spacing can accomplish with these players.

RUDY GAY

Rudy Gay is the centerpiece of any small ball lineup. His defensive versatility and length enable him to guard anyone outside of a 7-footer. When he can get to the rim he is an efficient scorer, it’s just all of the shooting decisions that he makes if he can’t quite get there that leave you scratching your head or throwing your remote. Most importantly, he recently underwent corrective laser surgery for his vision after playing the last few seasons with continually worsening vision that he refused to wear contacts or goggles for.

The outrage/curiousity/humour/complete incomprehension that I, and really anyone should have about that last fact could easily fill an entire column, so I’ll keep a lid on that for now. How it isn’t a bigger story, I don’t know. Consider this though, before the trade, the Grizzlies had a shooter who refused to wear goggles or contacts so that he could actually see, an al-star centre who refused to be anything close to in shape, and Tony Allen, a guard whose cement hands consistently miss layups, and who warms up by throwing around a medicine ball pre-game. Not exactly the best way to learn soft touch. And that team was still amazing! Imagine how good they could have been with a layup line, a YMCA membership and a pair of glasses.

The important thing to take away from this whole vision nonsense is that Rudy Gay can now actually see. I’m not saying that he’s going to shoot 40% from 3 on high volume shooting this season, but I have to believe that the ability to functionally see the rim can only improve his shot. If Gay can actually be a knockdown 3-point shooter, and the Raptors can space the floor around him for drives and drive and kick 3 pointers, Rudy Gay actually has the potential to go from albatross to simply overpaid. Rudy Gay’s NBA destiny makes the most sense as a small ball 4, and barring major roster changes, that seems like a route the Raptors would be fools not to experiment with.

So, Andrea Bargnani is done for the year. You already know this and you’re likely not bothered much by it. These games don’t matter, there’s no sense risking further damage and it’s a good chance for other guys to show what they can do.

The only downside: this was supposed to be the time for Bargnani to show what he can do. Or, rather, show that what we’ve seen him do is sustainable. On both ends, we saw him play far and away the best basketball of his career before the strained calf from hell. I can’t link to the Hardwood Paroxysm post I wrote 10 days ago because some miserable people decided to hack the site, but at the time I argued that this closing stretch was important for Bargnani. Now that’s gone, so the debate will remain:

Were those first 13 games representative of Bargnani?

It’s important to note that the Raptors believe they are. Click the link at the top of this post to see quotes from Dwane Casey on the matter — he’s going to demand that Bargnani plays like an All-Star in 2012-2013. He’s going to expect that he comes into training camp ready to put the effort in on defense. Now that we’ve seen him do it, there’s no excuse.

This might be my confidence in Casey talking, but I’m inclined to expect the same. Yes, I know I’m going off a 13-game sample size in a six year career. I know that the broader evidence suggests consistency and focus on the defensive end are not his strengths. But I’m willing to give Bargnani a pass on the way he played when he came back from his injury — it’s a short season, he didn’t have time to get good practices in and he’s never before been expected to produce on every possession at both ends. As we approach the summer, he knows this isn’t the same old Toronto team. He knows that the organization won’t settle for being below average on defense. He knows he’s expected to make it his team.

Back in August, I was unsure if Bargnani deserved another chance. Now I’m thrilled he got one. As convenient as it may be for ping pong ball purposes, it’s unfortunate that his injury took away his opportunity to definitively show that he’s an elite player. But to my eyes, those early season performances give us more than enough reason for optimism.

Guess I’ll have to wait until November to see if he’ll make me look smart.

The RR End of Season Party is this Wednesday at St. Louis at Yonge/College (7:30pm).

Certain events make you perk up and take notice at the goings-on of a winning team. New York, a team flush with talent, who found a gem keeping the pine warm, with quality talent from 1 through 10, who only needed to change the voice on the bench to get back to playing basketball worthy of a playoff team are relevant for the second time in the same season.

After running D’Antoni out of town, Carmelo has decided (or rather was forced) to play with pride and conviction; not taking any possessions off. Not a great deal has changed with Woodson taking the helm, except the prima-donna winning the power struggle and realizing there are no more excuses; ladies and gentlemen, I present you the Knicks.

After getting their assess handed to them on Wednesday, the Raptors have a chance at restitution on their home-court to bring the season series even at two a piece.

Areas of focus:

• Need to be aggressive defending that high pick-and-roll against Lin and Stoudemire. Calderon, who played a staggering 40 minutes on his first game back from injury, is going to have a hell of a time keeping Lin under wraps. With Bayless potentially out (or playing injured), he’s going to be called on for heavy minutes again, and needs to really make Lin work for everything. He’s going to need to fight through screens aggressively, and hope he gets some help on the hedge from Bargnani or Gray (or Amir or Davis). He can get some back on offense, by forcing boy wonder to contend and play on his heals.
• Defensive rotations need to be tight, and smooth. Far too often, when Stoudemire went at Bargnani, the other big would rotate, and no one would pick up Chandler who licked his lips at being open under the rim.
• The Knicks are 10 deep, meaning they have 5-guys who can come in, and change the complexion of the game; especially on the wing where the Raptors haven’t been so weak in recent memory. Again, if Bayless is playing, it changes things for the Raptors, but a bench rotation of Forbes, Kleiza and Butler makes me hate basketball something fierce.
• Q: You know what I loved about DeRozan on Wednesday against the Bulls? A: He curled off that high screen, caught the pass, and kept going to the rack; on multiple plays. This is the kind of Rip Hamilton basketball I love seeing from shooting guards. His 17 against the Knicks was so utterly ineffectual, it has Arse dropping giving his life-sized DeRozan blowup doll the camel clutch in rage. Lets see him attack the Knick defense in the paint more than five-times tonight.
• Protect the glass; I mean seriously. We have four forwards, who are tall, mobile and athletic (Gray not so much), and the Knicks dominated the offensive glass 16-4. For those who were counting, that translated in exactly 12 more possession…Raptors lost by 19, you do the math.
• Where the hell is Bargnani? I realize he missed a ton of games via injury, but in the eight games since his return, he’s averaging 12.5pts 4.8rebs 2.1ast on 33.7% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. This is unacceptable, and leads me to believe that he’s either not fully recovered from his injury, or has reverted to his limp noodle ways.

The Knicks are 5.5 point favourites tonight, and if Bayless isn’t ready to go, it’s going to take a full-team, full-48 effort to defend home court. Since those types of efforts have been few and far between, my monies on New York to put this away by the 4th; Knicks by 13.

Photo Credit: Chris Chambers/Getty Images

Ryan Degama, from Celtics Hub, James Herbert and AltRaps answered three of my burning questions:

Read an interesting trade scenario on ESPN (Insider required) with Garnett going to Denver for Afflalo, Miller and Mozgov; good trade personally. Why hasn’t Ainge began breaking up the big three, and getting picks/prospects for them while he can?

Ryan: There are a few reasons nothing has happened yet. Part of it is that teams are still evaluating what they need and part of it is that you nail the expected return: picks and prospects. That’s a serious bounty and Boston’s early performance has done little to strengthen Ainge’s negotiating position. Now that Paul Pierce has returned to all-star form, Ainge has more to work with, but there’s no guarantee he’ll get an offer he considers palatable. It’s possible Boston will ride out the season as is.

Alt: I’ve hated Ainge my whole life. Hated him as a Blue Jay and as soon as he became a Celtic, well, it was all over. So, in short, he hasn’t moved on anything because he can’t cross a street without calling someone for help. Much like when we traded Carter, Danny knows that what he gets in return for any of these guys will show what kind of a gunslinger he is. The fact he was willing to part with Rondo before any of these guys tells you something. He will make a move closer to the deadline, especially as the Sixers get further and further ahead of them. You’ll see a desperate perennial playoff team give up some good picks and current talent for one of the two. Pierce is untouchable.

James: Ainge has directly said that he would break this team up if he received a good enough offer. Who’s going after these guys, though? You’re only taking one of them if you’re a contender, and what contender has spare young players that would actually help the Celtics? Maybe some team would like to shed salary for Garnett’s $21 million expiring contract, but would Boston want a bunch of overpaid guys? Would Ainge want Joe Johnson? I doubt it.

Can the Celtics, as presently constructed, still win a championship?

Ryan: Their offense is on the wrong side of mediocre and their rebounding is bottom third in the league. Those two factors guarantee an early round exit come playoff time. Add the team’s collective age and inclination to injury and it’s all over unless you really want to delve deep into “everything goes right” scenarios. Those haven’t been hallmarks of the last few years in Boston.

Alt: If they were able to pull out series wins in 4-5 games, yes. They would get a breather between sets (presumably) and it gives their coaching staff time to get them working on the possible next opponent. Give that time to an Allen, a Garnett, a Rondo, then you have a shot. The real hitch is beating the West in the final. Good luck with that.

James: Can they? Yeah. In the same way that Portland or Denver can if a lot of things go their way. The Celtics are not contenders, barring a major injury elsewhere. They’ll be better come playoff time and we shouldn’t forget how bad they looked during some parts of 2009-2010 before making it to the Finals, but as constructed they are not in the same class as Miami, Chicago, and Oklahoma City.

Will it be a bar fight tonight?

Ryan: Feels like it could be a rough one after Kleiza smacked down Rondo last time. But I don’t think it will be a close one if the Celtics are interested in playing defense (sometimes they’re not) and moving the ball on offense, like they did against the Cavs last night.

Alt: Casey has these guys playing scrappy. You throw Scarborough out there to lay some shoulders and I envision some chippiness. If it’s a close game you know they will zero in on Jose’s touchiness and, especially without Andrea playing cold hand Luke, he could fall for it. That’s okay, though…we have Kleiza who has taken the role of the NBA’s version of a viper.

James: I just watched the Raptors get blown out by the Hawks at home and it wasn’t for a lack of effort. They’ll fight, but without Bargnani they’re going to struggle to put points up against this Boston defense. It all depends on if Toronto can contain Pierce, the Celtics’ primary creator in the absence of Rajon Rondo — if it’s a blowout, it’s not a bar fight.

Injuries

Toronto
Bargnani – Calf, out indefinitely

Boston
Rondo – Wrist, day-to-day
Dooling – Hip, day-to-day
O’Neal – Knee, day-to-day

Match-ups

Point Guard
I’m really liking the effort Bayless has been putting up since his return from injury; what helps most is he’s protecting the ball much better. Calderon’s been consistent. I realize he’s been starting at the 2 the last two games, but I just don’t see DeRozan covering Paul Pierce and James Johnson taking on Kevin Garnett. So with Rondo out (probably out), Bayless will be backing up Calderon and playing some shooting guard in relief of DeRozan while Colangelo sorts out a trade for Barbosa.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
I took a lot of heat when I said DeRozan’s game against the Nets wasn’t that great (especially getting to the foul line 16 times against a D-league level team). When you such dramatic swings from game-to-game, you don’t get love from this corner of the interwebs when you make a pretty against a weak-ass team. Head-to-head against Ray Allen, DeRozan’s been mediocre for a few seasons, I’m not saying Ray-Ray is going to drop 30, but he will do 15-20; mix that with DeRozan’s love affair with the jumper and Boston’s defensive resurgence (4th in defensive efficiency)…it’s going to be a long night for the prodigal son.
Edge: Celtics

Small Forward
Paul Pierce may be old, but his game was never dependant on his athleticism; it’s that slow-motion first step that’s killer. JJ and Kleiza have been playing nice, but if their combined production matches Pierce’s, I’ll be surprised.
Edge: Celtics

Power Forward
I’d like to see Amir or Magloire nail Garnett in the face with an elbow tonight, then have Calderon bark in his ear about it. This would be a win for me.
Edge: Celtics

Center
All my match-up assumptions were based on the Raptors not going small ball because of the bad mis-matches at the 2 and 3 if they do. Maybe they go that route, in which case half of what I’ll be watching the Chicago/Philly game (I’ll be watching that game anyways, Love D-Rose), but maybe they try and match-up a bit smarter, and not let Allen and Pierce take it easy on the bench in the 2nd half because they built up a 20 point 1st half lead.
Edge: Even, but who really cares

Keys to the Game

• Ball movement: the Celtics are a damn good defensive team, but they are old. The Raptors need to make them work on the defensive end of the court and really attack the paint; Garnett and O’Neal aren’t what they used to be. Don’t settle for jumpers!
• Tight defensive rotations: with Rondo out, the Celtics don’t have a guy who can consistently break down the defense and create for the rest of the team. Can’t give Allen and Pierce open looks from the perimeter (the Raptors have done a great job of allowing this this season) or they will kill us; I can’t stress this enough.
• Get into Garnett’s head: this wont win us the game, but I want to see someone mess the SOB a bit…hate him…

The Line

There’s no line at time of publishing, but I’ll go ahead and put a line in the sand: Celtics  by 13.

The Raptors finally broke out of their 0-for-showing with Bargnani injured this season, and got a win with the franchise on the sidelines. Individual plays and levels of effort aside, you have to appreciate this one; the Raptors never lost a quarter, and dictated the flow and tempo throughout. In fact, had it not been for early solid free-throw shooting in the first half, and some above average offensive rebounding by the Nets, this would have been one of those games where a Nets blogger’s post-game would have been a picture of tightly curled turd on the Nets logo.

An aside to the win, the Raptors managed 94 points without Bargnani and Barbosa. Granted some of that has to do with Jersey’s lack of…everything, but the Raptors did as good a good as job as possible with defensive rotations and assignments that you could expect. I mean, Deron Williams dropped 24 points, but it took him 20 shots (3-10 3FG), and some heroic off the ball movement to get good looks at the rim.

Case in point, in the 2nd quarter, Williams started at the top of the arc, ran around the low block, brushed past two low screens, came around to the top of the arc, caught and shot the ball with Bayless on his ass. He hit the three (without as much space as you’d think), but the point is he wasn’t blowing by pylons to get his baskets. He’s the type of player that can make those kind of plays happen, the rest of the team couldn’t and caved to the Raptor defense.

I like Calderon and Bayless starting in the back-court together. As much as Bayless offends me with his decision making, when he doesn’t have to be the floor general, he makes things happen. He also takes pressure off Jose to cover the likes of Deron Williams. I’d like to explore a lineup of Calderon, Bayless, JJ, Bargnani and Amir with DeRozan, Kleiza and Davis as the first three off the bench for a few games. Bayless attacks the paint off the bounce as much as possible, something DeRozan and his new-found love for the jumper should be doing. It gives a bit more balance, which takes me to DeMar…

…I wasn’t that impressed with DeRozan’s game last night. Sure, 27pts on 8-12FG 11-16FT looks great on the boxscore, but it didn’t sit right with me. Three times in the first half, DeRozan pulled up on the break and popped (missed) a jumper when he could have made a move to the basket and either converted or drew a foul. His 27 should have been at least 30. The second problem I had was 17 of 27 came in the second half with the Nets thinking about dinner and watching Californication.

The saving grace of his second half “dominance” was that he got to the line 12 times and hit 9 of them. Had they all been jumpers, I guarantee we would have been watching him shoot jumpers at an even more alarming rate for the rest of the season. Not sure if it’s just me or is his development looking a bit like VC’s? He doesn’t have the same finish Carter had at this stage of his career, but we watched VC go from a guy who wanted to break the backboard, to the POS jump shooter he became. I’m way to lazy to pull stats on this (maybe Liston can put something for statophile), but I’ve noticed myself sighing with more regularity that he’s shooting instead of driving. I can live with the shooting if it continues to improve, but only if he gets to the line more; 4 times a game is half of what of what he should be doing.

Photo Credit: James Herbert via Twitter

Obviously others chipped in and contributed…just that the headline was perfect and I didn’t want to change it: Calderon moved the ball around aside from a couple retarded passes, but the defense wasn’t there; Barbosa did DeRozan’s job and scored the ball; Kleiza did Amir’s and Davis’ job and grabbed rebounds off the bench; and James Johnson’s double-double was so natural it makes you want to choke him out on nights he puts up crap.

I have nothing positive to say about this game. It took 42 minutes from Bargnani, after missing six games, to win this one. 42 MINUTES! You have to assume he still isn’t 100% since that’s how the pro’s work. Amir and Ed played so terrible that Casey couldn’t spare more than 6 minutes at the power forward. Think about what that means for a minute; guys that were considered core members of the future could only give an injured man, who missed six straight games with injury, 6 minutes of relief against the one of the few teams in the league I wouldn’t trade the Raptors straight up for.

That last notion is a conversation I’ve been having with a lot of folks over the last few days: if you were to compare the Raptors to every other team in the league as currently constructed, you’d be hard-pressed not to like the other squad*. In this instance, the Suns have the best player of the two teams, Steve Nash, but he’s old and dreaming of finishing his career in New York. If he still had a year or two left on his contract, you could make the case that it would be better to rebuild around him…I really want to know what people think of this, put it in the comments.

As for Arse’s predictions:

Margin after first: -8 -> 10
Margin at halftime: -4 -> 4
Margin at end of third: -16 -> 8
Final score margin: -9 -> 3
Best Raptor: James Johnson -> Would have been if Bargnani wasn’t there
Worst Raptor: Ed Davis -> Yup, see Roll Call
Shots of Suns cheerleaders: 6 -> I counted 7 on LPBB
DeMar DeRozan three attempts: 4 -> 0, thank jah
Amir Johnson fouls: 5 -> 3, but didn’t play enough to get there
Barbosa final point tally: 18 -> 19
Rasual Butler moments of retardedness: 3 -> 2
Dwayne Casey yelling “go go go”: 2 -> No idea, I wont lie and say 6+
Jose Calderon assists: 8 -> 11

One thing I did like was the starting lineup, not that they played very long together, but Gray and Bargnani lining up together is more formidable than anything else we can muster. Next step is to insert Barbosa into the starting five, and make DeRozan the first wing off the bench; could be what he needs…in Utah tonight, pre-game up soon.

* Of the ten worst teams in the league, a case could be made that only Charlotte and Detroit are worse off than the Raptors

Photo Credit: Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

I’ve watched more Clippers games this seasons than the rest of my life combined; they almost play my perfect brand of basketball…Blake needs to take it to the rack more and they’d be perfect.

Had a few words with Jovan Buha from the Clippers Blog:

Knowing what you know now, did the Clippers pay too high a price for Paul?

No. I look at it this way — are the Clippers set up better now or in the future after the trade? I say both. There’s no way L.A. would be consistently beating elite teams with last year’s squad and simply the additions of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups. In the future, with time to gel and additions through free agency and trades, they’re only going to get better. If the last four games have proven anything, Paul is the Clippers’ offensive maestro and the difference-maker from being a playoff team and being a contender.

Is it a big problem that Blake likes to shoot long jumpers more than he attacks the rim like a rabid animal off the high screen?

Yes, it’s a huge problem. Blake’s jumper, while improved, is far from a proven product. His outside shooting efficiency is actually down from 33 percent to 31 percent this year but that’s more of a reflection of his 4.8 attempts per game (too high and as a result, lowers his percentage out there). When he attacks the rim, he’s much, much better (71.0 percent shooting at the rim). A pick-and-roll with Paul is much more efficient if Griffin rolls towards rim destruction.

Is Neil Olshey executive of the year?

Yes, thus far it appears Neil Olshey should be the executive of the year. He turned a laughingstock franchise into a fringe contender with the Chris Paul trade and signings of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups (for $2,000,032!). Who else made better moves this offseason?

Injuries

Toronto
Andrea Bargnani – Calf, should play
Jerryd Bayless – game-time decision, should play

Los Angeles
Chris Paul – Hamstring, game-time decision
Caron Butler – Knee, questionable

Match-ups

Point Guard
Paul is sick. Mo Williams is a solid back-up. Bledsoe is better than any back-up we got. And Chauncey can make it happen if he gets the call. That’s about all she wrote.
Edge: Clippers

Shooting Guard
At least DeMar showed up for the Blazers game on Friday; it took him 21 shots to get 22 points, but at least he got to the line 10 times. He hasn’t stepped up in Bargnani’s absence, but neither has anyone else really. While Billups wont break him down off the bounce, he will make him pay for every inch of open space DeRozan gives him and play tight defense on our boy.
Edge: Clippers

Small Forward
It’s going to be frustrating to watch a juicy, out of shape Caron Butler make things happen against our defense, but that’s exactly what’s going  down this afternoon. If Caron doesn’t go, the Raptors small forwards are actually better than anything the Clippers have.
Edge: Clippers

Power Forward
Bargnani’s supposed to play,  but he’s been sitting for over a week now and wont be crisp. There isn’t a whole he can do to control Griffin if he gets it in his head, but if he isn’t too much out of game shape, he can make things difficult on the phenom. Expect too see a lot of dunks and offensive rebound-put-backs tonight from the Clips, though.
Edge: Clippers

Center
Amir Johnson is a poor mans DeAndre Jordan. You could make the case that Amir has better offensive weapons, but what he does better on defense, Jordan more than makes up for on defense. The Raptors have more depth here, but Jordan is a work horse; it might even out since DeAndre doesn’t do enough outside of blocking shots and dunking (work with me here, I couldn’t give them a clean sweep).
Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

1. Let Blake shoot the ball every time he gets it; it’s frustrating to watch, but he loves the jumper, and shouldn’t be a go-to thing for him. Off the high pick-n-roll, let the guy roll and force Paul create some genius on every possession.
2. Control the boards; outside of Griffin and Paul, the rest of the team is pretty average to mediocre.
3. Make the Clippers work defensively; Chris Paul is injured and limping, Jordan can be bated with a pump-fake and Blake isn’t making all defensive team (although he can make highlight blocks). The Clippers are going to score, nothing the Raptors can do to stop that, but if we make them work a little, hopefully the early start time will mess with them

The Line

The Clippers are 9.5 point favourites at home with an over/under of 184.5; I’m setting the over/under of Blake and Jordan dunking at 10. The Clippers dropped a heart breaker against the Timberwolves on Friday, and should be plenty pissed off today. If Bargnani is playing, and isn’t too rusty, the Raptors should cover. It’s starting to get more serious than just covering games and looking at the bright-side of things, though. The Raptors have dropped 7 in a row, and could easily drop the next 5 on the road. Have to make a stand sometime, yea?

There’s losing a tough, competitive game that came down to the wire; there’s losing a nasty one to a better team where you weren’t really expected to make any noise; then there’s that once a year performance that would cost a coach his job. Clearly Casey is in no danger of losing his job, and shouldn’t be, but if Triano was still around, this would have been the nail in his coffin.

Last night was the result of a perfect storm that was bound to happen. Not only to the Raptors, but we will see a lot of fugly results like this across the league:

Injuries It says a lot about the state of your team when missing Jerryd Bayless in the lineup is cause for concern. Look, he’s not the worse thing that has ever happened to the Raptors, but at least he gives Calderon some rest (70 minutes in two nights, and he didn’t play the entire 4th quarter), and is aggressive off the bounce when he has the ball in his hands. It would also be nice to have Kleiza (again, I only weep for myself that I’m hoping Bayless AND Kleiza get back in action asap) force both Butler and Johnson into playing a combined 15-18 minutes a night.

Scheduling & Player Management The Raptors have played five games in the last seven nights, with little time for rest, and more importantly, practice. It’s tough to really work on things when you’re either on a plane, at the airport or sleeping. Top that off with heading into the 2nd night of a back-to-back, and things don’t look good considering the Raptors aren’t the most fit bunch. What made things even worse was Bargnani and Calderon played 45 and 41 (DeRozan played 38, but that shouldn’t be as big an issue) minutes respectively the night before against the  Wolves. I questioned Casey for riding those two for so long, but at least they got the win out of it.

Scoring The Raptors couldn’t put the ball through the hoop; it was tough to watch.

Now to the game…

The game started ugly for both teams; it took two and a half minutes and a combined five shots before Bargnani put the ball on the floor and got things rolling. The key during that two-minute stretch of ass was that the Wizards were missing off the bounce and in the paint, and the Raptors were clanking jumpers. This set the tone for the entire night where the Wizards were just monsters in the paint, scoring 38 of 46 points in the paint in the 1st half. That’s a big deal since it isn’t like the Wizards have a dominant front court that had it’s way with our boys. They attacked off the dribble with Wall, Young and Crawford taking their man, and making some difficult shots.

Aside from Calderon getting his second wind a minute into the game (it was downhill after the first quarter for the guy), three things stood out for me in the quarter: offensive rebounding and defense kept the Raptors in the game early; the Wizards had a grand total of 2 assists in the quarter; and DeRozan wasn’t actually playing any basketball. Given that the Raptors had just played the Wolves the night before, I expected some tired-lazy shots, but it was nice to see the defense do its job. The Wizards scored because their guys took the game into their hands and instead of running plays, made super aggressive moves off the bounce to get a shot off. This made me me happy heading into the second because when you control the boards, and are forcing a team to score off of broken plays and zero ball-movement, good things will happen.

I was wrong, the 2nd quarter was a warm, tightly curled pile of doo-doo (I actually used the word doo-doo six times in my game notes). If I could take back 40 minutes of my life, it was witnessing the 2nd and 3rd quarters of this game. Yes the Raptors were tired, but the worst team in the NBA managed to set the pace of the game, and capitalize. Eighteen of the Wizards first 20 points were transition buckets in the paint.

There was also a two-fold problem of turning the ball over (9 turnovers in the quarter), and when they managed to protect it, scoring the bloody thing.  DeRozan, Butler and Johnson were a combined 1-15 from the floor in the 1st half. To compound things, each and every shot they took, and missed, was early in the clock and obviously forced. In all fairness, DeRozan isn’t getting the ball in his sweet spot: catching the ball after curling off the high screen. He’s getting the ball on the wing, with no weak-side action. Unfortunately, his shot isn’t there quite yet. Butler and Johnson are just brutal; makes me miss watching Mike James go 1-on-4 for a bucket five-times a night.

The third was more of the same, and Casey threw in the towel in the 4th, trying to conserve some energy for tonight’s affair against the Kings.

After turning in an ugly effort against a lesser squad, I’m still happy with how the season is going. The reality is that the Raptors should have won this game and lost to the Knicks – net change is zero. Regardless of the outcome, some really good things happened last night:

• The Raptors defense was pretty decent; a 93 point performance where the starters didn’t play the entire 4th quarter isn’t something to hang your head low on. The Raptors were rotating on defense fairly well, but you have to give the Wizards some credit for hitting shots with next to no ball movement until the second half of the second quarter
• Bargnani weathered through his fatigue and managed 22 points on 16 shots in 29 minutes
• The Raptors out-rebounded the Wizards 44-38, with their offensive rebounding keeping them in the game, 14
• The zone defense worked until it didn’t, and by didn’t, I mean they didn’t use it enough. Still, it’s nice that they can throw out different looks that are effective

I really hate to say it, but the Wizards were due for a win, and the gods conspired to set the stage for them to capitalize. It’s an easy one to put behind you and prepare for the Kings at home.

If you don’t know, watching the game while keeping track of things on Twitter makes things a bit more interesting. The highlight for me last night was this exchange with some random dude (start at the bottom and read up the thread):

Photo Credit: Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images

Barbosa: for one night at least, he was back to the Barbosa we need. Crisp passes, getting to the line (where he was a perfect 9/9), active hands on defense…it was good to see.

Bargnani: this is verging on redunkulous. His game is almost written by a Hollywood script night in and night out: get pushed around, ignore it, give up taking a 3 to get a high percentage shot, have one reverse, pull one never-seen-by-him-before defensive move out of nowhere, make your critics eat crow. He got off 25 shots and 9 free throws in 45 minutes of action and he looked like he would go full throttle in OT if needed. Incredible.

Butler: I’ll give $20 to the first person to take a picture of his vehicle’s gas cap opening because I’m sure it is surrounded by gashes from the nozzle. This guy just can’t find a hole and fill it. How he has escaped the boo birds by the local fans is mindblowing. 0 for 5 from deep and every time he hoisted you almost knew it wasn’t going in. Embarrassing.

Calderon: I can’t be the only one who was terrified to see what Jose would do tonight. Going up against Rubio with at least a few thousand more Spaniards watching online than there were Canadians at the ACC tonight, the proud Calderon was bound to be wound up more than Liston at a new release of Microsoft Excel. Happy to say, though, that this is an older/wiser/freshly shorn Calderon and he passed with a solid B.  He held Rubio in check and refused to be on the bad part of a highlight reel.

Carter: sweet momma….7 minutes, –17, no points, no assists, 2 fouls. If you had given him a jar of pickles to open tonight, I’d put my money on the jar.

Davis: I’m not going to say that, one again, I’m disappointed in Davis’ game and he underperformed against a team that he should do better against.  i will say that I am less disappointed in my dog who ate my roast beef dinner and drank 2 bottles of my Carlsberg then went to the bathroom on my newly purchased area rug. The excuses are running out for Davis and soon one has to wonder if Solomon was actually the most deserving of being sent to the DLeague.

DeRozan: he once again made an attempt to redeem himself late in the game but as was deftly pointed out by Mr. Armstrong, we need more out of a guy who represented the team at Allstar weekend and is constantly referred to as our future. There are times he seems disinterested.

A. Johnson: I know the season is just underway, but if there was ever a game to show the change in Amir, this was it. 30 minutes, with the majority coming against Kevin Love, almost a double double at the half, 7/9 from the floor, 5/6 from the line. Last year he would have been saddled with 3 fouls in 4 minutes and then pick up a quick 2 in the second. This year all he did was make Love look like he’d met his match. Phenomenal game.

J.Johnson: James didn’t fare as well against Love. Heck, he lasted one possession at one point where he came in for Amir, he fouled love in a few seconds and Casey swapped Amir back in immediately. Just like DeMar, he saved his soul in the 4th with 2 wonderful blocks that set the tone for the Raptors to finish the game. I have no doubt that he’ll be punished by watching a lot of video tomorrow, but that’s well deserved. We still need him playing like he did in game 1.

Driving the bus: Amir Johnson

Under the bus: Rasual Butler

Theme of the Game: