Certain events make you perk up and take notice at the goings-on of a winning team. New York, a team flush with talent, who found a gem keeping the pine warm, with quality talent from 1 through 10, who only needed to change the voice on the bench to get back to playing basketball worthy of a playoff team are relevant for the second time in the same season.

After running D’Antoni out of town, Carmelo has decided (or rather was forced) to play with pride and conviction; not taking any possessions off. Not a great deal has changed with Woodson taking the helm, except the prima-donna winning the power struggle and realizing there are no more excuses; ladies and gentlemen, I present you the Knicks.

After getting their assess handed to them on Wednesday, the Raptors have a chance at restitution on their home-court to bring the season series even at two a piece.

Areas of focus:

• Need to be aggressive defending that high pick-and-roll against Lin and Stoudemire. Calderon, who played a staggering 40 minutes on his first game back from injury, is going to have a hell of a time keeping Lin under wraps. With Bayless potentially out (or playing injured), he’s going to be called on for heavy minutes again, and needs to really make Lin work for everything. He’s going to need to fight through screens aggressively, and hope he gets some help on the hedge from Bargnani or Gray (or Amir or Davis). He can get some back on offense, by forcing boy wonder to contend and play on his heals.
• Defensive rotations need to be tight, and smooth. Far too often, when Stoudemire went at Bargnani, the other big would rotate, and no one would pick up Chandler who licked his lips at being open under the rim.
• The Knicks are 10 deep, meaning they have 5-guys who can come in, and change the complexion of the game; especially on the wing where the Raptors haven’t been so weak in recent memory. Again, if Bayless is playing, it changes things for the Raptors, but a bench rotation of Forbes, Kleiza and Butler makes me hate basketball something fierce.
• Q: You know what I loved about DeRozan on Wednesday against the Bulls? A: He curled off that high screen, caught the pass, and kept going to the rack; on multiple plays. This is the kind of Rip Hamilton basketball I love seeing from shooting guards. His 17 against the Knicks was so utterly ineffectual, it has Arse dropping giving his life-sized DeRozan blowup doll the camel clutch in rage. Lets see him attack the Knick defense in the paint more than five-times tonight.
• Protect the glass; I mean seriously. We have four forwards, who are tall, mobile and athletic (Gray not so much), and the Knicks dominated the offensive glass 16-4. For those who were counting, that translated in exactly 12 more possession…Raptors lost by 19, you do the math.
• Where the hell is Bargnani? I realize he missed a ton of games via injury, but in the eight games since his return, he’s averaging 12.5pts 4.8rebs 2.1ast on 33.7% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. This is unacceptable, and leads me to believe that he’s either not fully recovered from his injury, or has reverted to his limp noodle ways.

The Knicks are 5.5 point favourites tonight, and if Bayless isn’t ready to go, it’s going to take a full-team, full-48 effort to defend home court. Since those types of efforts have been few and far between, my monies on New York to put this away by the 4th; Knicks by 13.

Photo Credit: Chris Chambers/Getty Images

Point Guard
The offense actually isn’t as bad as you might think; the Raptors are first in the league in Assist Ratio 18%, 5th in true shooting 55.9% and 11th in offensive efficiency 103. This all starts with Calderon at the point, who is orchestrating like a maestro (lame I know, sorry).  He’s keeping the pace down, but that looks to be the only way this team can compete on a game-to-game basis. Toney Douglas will check Jose tight on defense, not giving him much room to operate; he will have to play a tight 1-2 with Bargnani in the high post to manufacture scoring opportunities for the rest of the team. Douglas is less of a threat off the bounce, but can hit those open jumpers that opposing teams seem to be getting from the Raptors so far this season. Jose looked gassed yesterday against the Magic, and with that game that coming aggressively coming down to the wire, and Bayless not in the lineup tonight, he’s gonna be ridden like Joey (great movie btw) which never bodes well for him.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
I like DeMar, I want him to succeed, but he really needs to step up his offensive efficiency: 8-24 from the field over the last two games; unacceptable. He’s had his hands full with quality shooting guards, but that’s really no excuse; hand down man down, right? A lot of his problem comes from not taking the ball to the rack. He’s been to the line 6 times in four games, a super low number for a guy with his ball handling and athletic ability. Landry Fields is a perimeter wing, but has a nice touch from outside (he was a solid pick up for me last year in fantasy). Without Stoudemire in the lineup, DeMar wont have to collapse defensively as much, and can stay at home on Landry. Don’t give up open shots, and battle on the boards like he did against the Magic, and he’ll be fine.
Edge: Even

Small Forward
Butler/Johnson have been having problems with the likes of Turkoglu and Marion, Melo is going to drop 30 tonight. Transition defense is going to kill the Raptors tonight if they don’t pick up guys early and stick with him. Anthony is one of the most lethal scorers in the league in the first 7 seconds of the shot clock. With Amare out, there’s going to be much more offensive burden put on his shoulders, which he’s more than happy to take on. Restricting ball movement, and forcing Melo into tough shots he’ll probably still hit is the best strategy here.
Edge: Knicks

Power Forward
Amare is out for tonight which is a godsend for Bargnani defensively.  Don’t know anything about his rookie replacement Josh Harrellson other than he was able to drop 14pts 12rebs on an equally talent thin Kings squad. Can’t read that much into that performance since Cousins had demanded a trade and JJ Hickson has been an absolute flop (killed me for a couple days in fantasy this year) so far. Andrea puts up 32pts/10rebs/2blk, book it. As far as Ed Davis goes, I have no idea where the guy went. It’s like he’s hit the wall, but it’s only been 4 games; don’t’ get it. This game will give Ed opportunities to bang on the boards, and make things happen; he just needs to want to do it.
Edge: Raptors

Center
I still feel jipped by Jordan’s take-back on that trade, especially after he turned around and sent him to Dallas for crap….bah, whatever. He’s come as advertised for the Knicks, shoring up the front court with some sorely needed defense and the occasional alley-oop. This should be an easier match-up for Amir since Tyson isn’t as physical as Howard, but his agility will hurt definitely bother our boy.
Edge: Knicks

The Line

The Knicks are 8 point favourites with an over/under of 200; sounds about right. The Magic loss was not only a tough one to swallow, but the Raptors had to play Bargnani and Calderon more than they should have, taking away some juice from their tank for tonight. This one really has the chance to get ugly if Melo is feeling it.

The draft lottery can’t come fast enough, after a massive win against the Magic on the weekend, the Raptors are 1 game out of 3rd worst; Wizards are holding tight. Including tonights game in New York, three of the remaining six games are against playoff teams, with the Bucks trying to sneak in past the Pacers, but are currently sitting three games out. Even though the Knicks have secured a playoff spot, they can clinch the 7th seed with a win tonight; it’s on yea?

In yesterday’s Power Rankings, Marc Stein (thanks weinermobile) had this to say about the Raptors:

Make that two wins over Orlando to go with an improbable season sweep of the Thunder as well as wins over Dallas (road) and Chicago (home). So give the Raptors this much: When they do win, it’s almost always an event.

Quick hits:

• Sonny Weems seems to have woken up from the three straight games of inducing projectile vomit in fans to a solid showing off the bench against the Magic. Expect that to revert tonight, and I’m glad his future contract worth is in the 2yr/$4mil range with the arrival of Johnson; if that.
• Bayless has the opportunity to continue the impressive run he’s been on in the last two games, wont be easy against Chauncey, but the Knicks as a whole could counter his effectiveness as an individual. Maybe; probably not…
• James Johnson can do us a solid by letting Carmelo put up 25+ shots; volume shots out of sync = good for the Raptors.
• Ed Davis vs Amar’e Stoudemire, very interested in this match-up.
• If Bargnani gets any more burn for the rest of the year, I’d like to see him sweat it out like a migrant worker in a strawberry field.
• Put me down as a ‘yes’ for Barkley taking over as the Raptors GM if BryCo is shown the door. Why? Why not! Seriously, how much worse could things possibly get? Charles may not be the smartest basketball mind in the world, but he’s smart enough to know he can’t do the job well and will need to surround himself with smart people to help in the decision making. Also, I miss the Sam Mitchell soundbytes somin fierce; Barkley will provide plenty of that. This is all about entertainment right?

The Knicks are 9.5 point favourites with an over/under of 219.5; this has the makings of the Nuggets game written all over it.

The Raptors are on a three-game losing streak, George Karl is gunning for 1000th win as an NBA head coach; the stage is set for some fireworks tonight.

Had a chat with Jeremy Wagner from Roundball Mining Company about the Nuggets, Raptors and everythign in between:

How is Shelden Williams the starter for this team? I mean, seriously?
Shelden Williams is a solid player, definitely deserving of minutes on a good team. As far as being a starter, that is another conversation altogether (and in memory of Canadian comedy great Leslie Nielsen let’s all say, “That is another conversation.”). If Kenyon Martin were healthy, Williams would be just playing spot minutes here and there. Martin should return sometime in the next month and once he does, Williams will return to the bench. The saying goes it does not matter who starts, but who finishes and you will not see Williams finishing a game unless there is another injury, ejection or foul trouble.

This does hit on a larger issue. George Karl likes to have plenty of scoring off the bench and he has started players like Anthony Carter, Arron Afflalo (last season when he was less of an offensive threat than he is now) and this season Williams because he likes to attempt to set a good defensive tone to start the game while preserving some of the offensive punch to go against the reserves of the opponent. It certainly worked in the last game in Boston when the starters fell behind by 19 in the first quarter only to see Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith bring the team back against the Celtics bench in the second quarter.

Realistically, what can Denver expect back in a trade for Carmelo since he seemingly wants to go to New York, and the Knicks playing a very patient game of wait-and-see?
If the Nuggets get painted into a corner where the only option is the Knicks, they will be stuck with Eddy Curry’s decomposing contract, Danilo Gallinari, a future first round pick, way in the future, and probably the Prospect Formerly Known as Anthony Randolph. The ideal trade partner is New Jersey, with players like Derrick Favors and Devin Harris available along with one or two first round picks, one from Golden State, thrown in for good measure. With the Knicks playing well the potential of playing with buddy Amare Stoudemire and possibly Chris Paul in a couple of years could be too much of a draw and will convince Melo to hold out for the Knicks.

As much as it would benefit Denver to make a trade sooner rather than later, the players, coaches and fans all know it is just a matter of time, I expect this will become a staring contest between Denver and Melo. If Melo blinks first, he will end up in New Jersey. If Denver blinks first, he will end up in New York.

The hammer the Nuggets wield is money. If they do not trade him before the trade deadline, he will have to walk away from $85 million over the next four years in order to become a free agent. He will have to opt out of the final year of his current contract worth over $18 million and thus lose the three year, $65 million extension. Of course he will get a big chunk of that back through whatever contract he signs. The danger for Melo in that situation is if salaries are rolled back by 25%, as the league wants in the new CBA, Melo could be looking at a max deal that will earn him possibly only around $50 million over those four seasons. That is a big pay cut just to play in Manhattan with Amare instead of Brooklyn with Brooke Lopez.

Of course Melo wields a hammer as well, and it is a weapon that Toronto fans know all too well having seen their former star player tag along with his buddies to Miami.

The Nuggets seem to play better with Lawson manning the helm, what’s the plan with Billups? Will he get traded while he as some value? What’s the market for his services?
What happens to Chauncey when Carmelo is traded is the big variable in this entire situation. As you may know Billups is a hometown hero. He is widely, and I believe rightly, credited as the player who pushed the Nuggets from a playoff also ran into a contending team. He has made apparently conflicting comments suggesting both that he has no desire to be part of a rebuilding project, even in the city of his birth, and also that he wants to retire a Nugget. The truth is Chauncey does want to be a Nugget for life, but not at the expense of hanging around on a lottery team after Melo is dealt.

Chauncey has also been very vocal about his deep desire to see Melo remain in Denver long term. He has two significant motivations for that. First of all, he wants to play on a winner in Denver. The other secondary reason is his contract. If Melo is in Denver, the Nuggets likely pick up the final year of his current deal worth over $14 million. However, only $3.7 million of that final season is guaranteed. Denver is likely the only team in the NBA who would pick up that final year of his deal. If Melo is dealt, it only makes sense Chauncey will be on his way out of town soon after. If that happens, no matter Billups ends up, the trade will probably cost him about $8.5 million.

As far as who would be interested in Chauncey that is not an easy question to answer. Denver would be looking for a pick and expiring deals along with Billups. Obviously, Billups would have to be sent to a good team; if not a contender, at least a strong playoff team. Before the season I thought the best match would be the Bobcats. Charlotte was a solid playoff team last year and it would reunite Chauncey and Larry Brown who both have a deep respect for each other. Add in the unknown quantity of D.J. Augustin and it seemed like a good match. However, the Bobcats have not built on their solid season last year and Augustin has played well. Miami makes sense, but does not have the contracts. Portland has been mentioned, but I do not think they are a good fit as Denver would have to take back Andre Miller and that is not an upgrade for Portland anyway. Sacramento would have been a dark horse if they were a fringe playoff team, but that is not the case.

In surveying the landscape one team keeps coming back to me, the Lakers. L.A. can cobble together enough expiring contracts to make it work, thanks to Sasha Vujacic’s 5.4 million in the last year of his current deal, and they could certainly use a player like Billups to go along with Derrick Fisher. Plus the Nuggets are high on rookie Derrick Caracter, and tried to trade into the second round to draft him last June. Seeing Chauncey in the Forum Blue and Gold would be a terrible pill for Nuggets fans to swallow, but it would be a great situation for Chauncey.

The Nuggets have said publically that the only players who are untouchable are Chauncey and Lawson. I suspect the former is only to try to retain some semblance of sanity in the locker room and the latter is because they are really high on Lawson.

At this point in their respective careers I believe Lawson is the better player. Billups was an All-Star last season, but that was due to a career best stretch from mid-January to mid-March where he was simply amazing. The first part of the season was disappointing and he definitely did not play well over the final month. Billups followed that up with a poor showing in the World Championships and now he has really struggled to start the season. It looked like his shot was coming back before he had an atrocious 2-10 night in Boston. He will still make plenty of threes although the rest of his game is nowhere near the level fans are used to seeing.

Lawson is very good in both the half court offense and obviously is great in transition. He is actually a better defender than Billups who cannot stay in front of anyone anymore. Ty is learning to be more assertive at the request of the coaching staff and he is still a little inconsistent. It will be interesting to see how he follows up his big night in Boston against the Raptors.

Arron Afflalo has been a pleasant surprise, posting a career year across the board. Does he have what it takes to be a rebuilding piece once Carmelo and Chauncey get sent elsewhere?
I think Denver will try to hang onto Afflalo. He has shown a great work ethic and has improved dramatically every summer. He is a solid defender and is developing into a more than adequate offensive player. His name did briefly surface in the rumors swirling around the four team trade which fell apart prior to the start of the season. Who knows if there was any truth to those whispers? Add in Denver’s rumored preference of finding a taker for J.R. Smith and Afflalo, while certainly not untouchable, would seem to be part of the Nuggets long term plans.

Denver has owned the Raptors over the years, last year around this time, they dumped the Raptors 130-112. What will be the game plan this time around against the Raptors, especially with Carmelo being listed as game-time decision?
Not knowing whether or not Melo will play makes it difficult to project much about this game. Deep down I would expect Carmelo to sit. He will certainly want to play in Denver’s next game at Madison Square Garden and after playing horribly over his last five games, it would make sense for him to miss the Toronto game in order to be as strong as possible against the Knicks.

Denver plays a iso heavy offense and it works fine when Melo is on the floor and can get his own shot. He also draws so much attention from the defense that it opens up lanes for his teammates. Without Melo, that same iso offense looks much worse. Ty Lawson is the only player who can penetrate at will and the rest of the team ends up taking plenty of bad shots. You know Denver is in trouble when Al Harrington starts trying to wheel and deal with the ball. On the other hand, if Denver shows the patience to move the ball around, they can get good shots and have offensive players who can make jumpers. Afflalo, Billups, Smith, Lawson and Harrington can all hit the three although Harrington has been shooting blanks for quite some time now. Plus if Denver can play up tempo, they have good athletes and finishers and need not bother with trying to get good shots against a set defense.

Look for Denver to try to get Nene involved early, especially if Bargnani is guarding him. However, if the Raptors double him or front him, Denver will try something else and likely will not go back. Billups will probably also look to be aggressive shooting plenty of threes and posting up Calderon.

Defensively, Bargnani could feast on the pick and pop as Denver has shown a complete inability to deal with that play. They are not much better on the straight pick and roll either. Calderon can get any open midrange shot he wants as Denver’s bigs hate to hedge on the pick and if he wants to go all the way to the rim, they usually give enough ground that the drive is a good option as well.

There is definitely a cloud over this team as they simply wait for Melo to be traded. Still, they showed a lot of heart in their comeback in Boston. Denver may regularly defeat the Raptors, but Toronto will definitely have a shot in this one, whether Melo plays or not.

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out

Denver
Kenyon Martin – Out
Chris Andersen – Out
Carmelo Anthony – Game-time decision

Match-ups

Point Guard
Even though he’s not what he used to be, Chauncey Billups is still a top-flight PG in the league. His numbers are down across the board this season, however, it’s more than his age that has reduced his effectiveness. Carmelo’s been injured, the front court is decimated with injuries and the distractions of George Karl’s health and Carmelo’s status on the team, coupled with Josh Kroenke taking the helm have all been a factor (phew, I wanted to get that out in one sentence, my apologies). Don’t get it twisted though, he can still go off and has had a couple great games already this season; there’s a reason this team is 13-8 and holding steady at 7th in the West. Depth-wise though, the Nuggets fall off considerably after Billups, giving Calderon and Bayless a chance to really attack him.

Interestingly enough, this team looks a whole lot better with Ty Lawson running the show. The kid is bloody fast off the dribble, and hits his shots from the perimeter. In a half-court game, he has trouble creating space since he’s so small (5″11 195lbs), but both teams play at a faster pace, so he could be a big factor. Would like to see both Bayless and Calderon take advantage of their size and force him to pick up some fouls.

The one area of concern is perimeter defense, namely coverage beyond the arc. The Raps have allowed something like 629 looks from beyond the 3-point line the last couple games. With Billups averaging about five 3-pointers a game, things could get sticky. That said, I like the different looks/styles we can throw at him, and for once, I’m calling a match-up against Billups in the Raptors favour.
Edge: Toronto

Shooting Guard
so I called him out against the Knicks, and to his credit, DeRozan responded with a strong game. It will take more than one good game to get out of the Republics doghouse, but I know the kids trying. Tonight, he matches up with Afflalo who doesn’t do any one thing great, but is playing mighty fine this season. Afflalo does well off the dribble, and is a crafty scorer. Being on the wing alongside Carmelo has helped him get better looks, but with Anthony potentially out for the game, a lot of the scoring burden will fall to him, which could be a good thing since he’s not an elite scorer. Attack. Attack. Attack. Hit or miss, that’s all DeMar has to do tonight since the Nuggets don’t have much in the paint in the paint to slow him down when he gets by Afflalo.
Edge: Toronto

Small Forward
If Carmelo’s healthy, and in the lineup, he’s going off for 34; if he isn’t, Denver has some guy I never heard of (rookie Gary Forbes) getting burn in his place. This team is totally different with Carmelo out of the lineup, they squeaked out a win against the Suns, and got thumped by Boston on Wednesday. With him though, they are the 6th ranked offense in the league. Off the bench, J.R. Smith will be gunning hard. The guy is instant offense and isn’t shy; Wednesday against the Celtics he took 18 shots in 26 minutes, 10 of them were cringe worthy. I’m actually looking at Barbosa for a big game tonight. He has the speed and determination to get to the rim every chance he gets, and since the Nuggets don’t have anyone to really contest him there, he should be dangerous.

As long as Weems (don’t you dare call him money) does exactly the opposite of what he’s been doing the last few weeks or so, he should be fine. A note on Kleiza…I’m done with him. To regress the way he has over the course of this young season is stunning after the great performance he turned in during the FIBA championships. I only wish the leash Triano has him on would extend to other folks who aren’t carrying their weight.
Edge if Melo’s Playing: Denver
Edge if Melo isn’t Playing: Toronto

Power Forward
No joke, Sheldon Williams is starting for this team, that’s how brutalized the front court is. Since he’s so useless, Amir shouldn’t be getting into any early foul trouble early, which bodes well for him to log 30+ minutes. Off the bench, Harrington is someone to be concerned with, even though he’s only scoring about 12 a game this season; historically he’s feasted on the Raptors, averaging 21 a game over his career.

That said, between Amir and Davis, the Raptors have the size, speed and athleticism to own this match-up. Ed Davis has an opportunity to really step up defensively and on the boards.
Edge: Toronto

Center
What was just as impressive as the 41 points Andrea dropped on Wednesday, was the 7res and 6ast he stacked alongside it. A complete game, I don’t think I’ve ever said that about Andrea during his time with the Raptors. He’s really stepped up this season in Bosh’s absence, and I really couldn’t be happier about it. Triano has done a good job of hiding his rebounding woes (averaging 5.7 which is brutal for a 7 footer getting 35+ minutes) with creative line juggling with Evans and Johnson, allowing him to concentrate his energies on the offensive end.

Nene will be a handful, the Brazilian is super active in the paint, takes very good shots (and hits them to the tune of 62%FG), and gets on the boards. He’s an undersized center, so Barg’s shouldn’t have too hard a time backing him into the post. Nene will win the hustle match-up, but he doesn’t have the tools to really affect Bargnani on either end of the floor. If he starts to float and crash the boards though, he could prove to be trouble.
Edge: Toronto

Keys to the Game

Own the Paint; both ends
I assume that the Nuggets will be shooting the lights out, but they don’t have the forwards to battle in the paint and crash the glass with the Raptors. There is significant drop off after Nene, with Harrington mostly concerned with his own scoring and one-upping himself with shooting threes (I can’t stand him). In Evans’ absence, the Raptors have continued to rebound the hell out of the ball, and with Alibi getting called up from D-League purgatory, the bench has another long kid to get after it.

X’s & O’s
In the dieing minutes against the Knicks, the Raptors ran two brutal out of bounds plays that yielded them exactly nothing. Triano needs to do a much better job at diagramming plays out of the timeouts, on the fly, actually calling good plays in general; especially going head-to-head with Karl, who is one of the better coaches in the league.

Consistency
Three losses in a row, against two teams who are under .500, all in the last week. This after a 6-2 stretch that saw wins against Houston, Boston and Oklahoma. I don’t understand it either, but it speaks to the Raptors not bringing the same effort on a game-to-game basis, which comes down to preparation and motivation, which comes down to Triano and Carlessimo doing their jobs.

With or without Carmelo, the Raptors need this win, have to stop the bleeding and build some momentum heading into the next week where 5 of the next 7 are at home, and against weaker teams (obviously the Bulls and Lakers aren’t weak teams).

Excuse the spelling/grammar mistakes, didn’t have time to go through this with a fine tooth comb; at least I never said ‘literally’.

***UPDATE***
The gamblers have spoken, and the Nuggets are 2 point favourites with an over/under of 217.5.

They run incessantly, they hustle, they play hard, there is a bigger commitment to defense, the bench is deeper; that’s the good news…the bad news is that this team is full of 2nd tier role players and lack an all-star caliber player who can put all the pieces together and lead them to .500 and beyond. I’ll take it though because they have been playing a real infectious brand of ball that I can’t ever recall seeing played by a Raptor team. Let the rebuilding begin…

The Knicks got first; my second favourite team in the league (I was a sucker for the bruising Knicks teams of the 90s). The two teams just played in Montreal, where the Raptors handled the Knicks, weathering a furious comeback in the 4th that fell short. The Raptors defense shined, forcing the Knicks into 26 turnovers, and keeping them to 69 field goal attempts.

I checked in with Mike Kurlyo, of Knickerblogger fame to get his take on the Knicks, some of the players and Carmelo Anthony:

The Knicks had a really busy offseason; what are the teams expectations? What are your expectations?
The team expects to make the playoffs this year. New York has gone 6 seasons without a playoff game, and they’ve sacrificed the last two seasons for this year. For the Knicks, not making the playoffs would indicate failure. I guess my expectations are about the same.

Raymond Felton has given the Raptors problems over the last couple seasons, averaging 17pts, 5rebs 5ast over that span. I thought he was a good signing for this team, and he seems to have the tools to be a nice fit. How is he meshing with Stoudemire in D’antoni’s offense?
The relationship between Felton and Stoudemire has been slow to develop. However I think the notion that Stoudemire relies on his PG is overblown. Amar’e isnt a pick & roll leech that requires someone else in order to score. He’s a 5 time All Star who can work the post and shoot from outside. As for Felton, the big question is: Which player will the Knicks receive this year? Last year he had career highs in shooting percentage (including three point percentage), but the rest of his career he’s been sub-par. And this preseason, Raymond hasn’t looked comfortable in the offense. If October is any indication of what’s to come, Amar’e is going to excel offensively while Felton is going to struggle.

D’Antoni is very high on Mozgov, what can you tell us about him, and how does he matchup against Bargnani?
Mozgov has been surprisingly impressive in some areas, and head scratching raw in others. For his size, he’s quite agile and can run the floor. He has a nice touch from outside, and I don’t have a good sense of how strong he is around the hoop. He’s looked competent at times, but has blown a few gimmies in the paint. Additionally he’s a foul machine that’s still learning how to defend in the NBA, his rebounding is suspect, he turns the ball over too frequently, and he could take a course in setting picks. Specifically against Bargnani, he’d obviously be susceptible to the long ball, as he defends better in the paint. However Bargnani doesn’t defend well either, so Mozgov will probably have some easy opportunities of his own.

Anthony Randolph was a (the?) key piece in the David Lee trade; what is his upside? What would classify as a successful season from the kid?
Randolph is already a fantastic rebounder, defender, and shot blocker. On the other hand he’s clueless on offense, especially in regards to shot selection. As often with many young and improperly trained athletes, he doesn’t have good instincts with regards to what constitutes a good or bad attempt. If he improves his shooting efficiency to league average, he’d be an All Star, without a doubt. This year, a successful season from Randolph would be for him to play 24 to 30 minutes a game. That would mean he’s entrenched in the rotation and getting much needed experience. Oh and don’t sleep on Azubuike, who will likely be the SG starter once he’s healthy.

Andy Rautins has a lot of fans here in Toronto, what are your thoughts on him?
Not sure what to make of him. He’s a guy that obviously lives from downtown, which meshes with D’Antoni’s style of play. He’s made some nice passes, but he’s also looked overwhelmed at times. I’m not expecting much from him this year, as I think he still has a lot to adjust to the NBA game. On a side note, he was a nice guy to interview, and we had a laugh over my ancient iPod/recording device.

I can’t let you go without getting your take on Carmelo Anthony…go!
I’ve answered this question so many times, I can do it in limerick form.
There was an All Star in Denver,
To move to New York, he wished for.
‘Melo didn’t rebound,
Defend or astound,
And wasn’t worth Gallo, Randolph, and Chandler.

Injury Report

Toronto
Joey Dorsey: Serving a suspension
Leandro Barbosa: Wrist Injury – Will be in the lineup

New York
Anthony Randolph: Sprained Ankle – Status not known
Timofey Mozgov: Hip – Status not known
Wilson Chandler: Calf – Not playing

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Felton
Felton pretty much had his way with Calderon and Jack last season, and in 26min on Friday, put up 12pts 4rebs 5ast. Jack did a solid job of keeping Felton out of the lane (1-2 in the paint), and will need to maintain that streak tonight.

On the offensive end, Jack needs to give us a bit more; 2-5 from the field in 24min isn’t enough scoring, even though he chipped in 3rebs 5ast 4stl. Jack brings that bull-dog mentality that Calderon doesn’t; he puts his head down and gets into the paint. If he can get into the paint, he can create some space for Bargnani and Kleiza on the perimeter.
Edge: Draw

SG – DeRozan vs Fields
I love what I see in DeRozan’s shot-chart, a concentration of shot attempts in the paint:

Doesn’t matter that he was 4-9 from the field and 3-5 from the line, what matters is he got into the paint at will, and put pressure on the defense. If this keeps up, he will give teams a lot of headaches, and make up for the 8-10 free throws a game Bosh used to give us. Last season, DeMar averaged 17.7pts against the Knicks, he likes going at this team.
Edge: DeRozan

SF – Kleiza vs Gallinari
We didn’t get to see Gallinari on Friday, but the kid elevated his game last season; especially against the Raptors where he averaged 19.8pts. Gallinari is going to score, but I’d like to see him take contested shots on the perimeter, Kleiza wont need to come over for the double on Amar’e (DeMar or Jack have that), which should keep him at home defensively. What I like about Kleiza is how diverse his shot selection is:

Inside-outside-weakside-strongside, he takes what the offense gives him, and makes something out of it. Danilo hasn’t been 100% during the pre-season, so I’m looking to Kleiza to take it to him from the tip.
Edge: Kleiza

PF – Evans vs Stoudemire
This is more a case of limiting the damage. While Evans started slow out the gate Friday, he got himself back into the game, and lifted the team with his energy and rebounding. If that’s all he does, he can be an asset for this team; but the moment he shoots the ball…lets just say that a missed shot by Evans out-weighs a grabbed rebound. Last games shot chart is a joke, Stoudemire did what he wanted:

I seriously don’t think we can expect any more than what we got last game. Amar’e is a polished offensive player who can get his shot whenever he wants, and the Raptors have no one to man-him-up and get him out of his comfort zone.
Edge: Stoudemire

C – Bargnani vs Mozgov
Riddle me this, which Bargnani are we going to get? The biggest question left unanswered from the pre-season is how will Bargnani do without Bosh creating space for him? As far as Mozgov goes, Bargnani had the best of him on Friday: limited Timofey to 4 points and 2 field goals. Defensively, the only thing we could have asked of him was a few more rebounds.

Offensively, 6-13 from the field isn’t bad, but he almost missed as many shots from the perimeter, as he took in the paint.
Edge: Bargnani

Prediction

Vegas has the Raptors as 2 point favourites with an over/under of 211. Like I said earlier, during the pre-season, we saw the Raptors beat the teams they should have, this is one of those games that is very gettable. I gotta go Raptors: home opener, the crowd will be nuts and they’ve already beaten them.

You can follow our updates on Facebook and Twitter. If you’ve got something to say, air it out during the live chat (which were killer during the pre-season).

Photo Credit: AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Paul Chiasson

It had all the makings for a disappointing game, but the Raptor killer known as Nazr Mohammed was injured so there was hope. I’ll be honest with you, I’ve come to expect that when a team has been dogging it for 20 games (the Raptors were 6-14 heading into last nights game) that you can’t just flip the switch on a whim and compete. Last night against the Bobcats, it was more like a leaky faucet that slowly got turned on. Like the Atlanta game, the Raptors kept it close, took advantage of every opportunity that reared its head, and pulled out a gritty win in spite of some very poor officiating at that.

Before getting into it, with 9 games left before the playoffs, me thinks Triano has stumbled on a rotation of:

PG – Calderon
SG – Weems
SF – Wright
PF – Bosh
C – Bargnani

BN – Turkoglu
BN – DeRozan
BN – Jack
BN – Johnson

This lineup serves a few things: better balance on the starting 5 (Weems and Wright don’t need the ball in their hands to be effective); better defense at the wing to start the game; a much stronger second unit (Turkoglu should be beating up on opposing benches); and it just seems to flow better.

It’s go time now, so Bosh and Bargnani should be playing 38-41 minutes a night from here on out, giving Amir between 14-20 minutes of burn; a nice tight rotation. As you can see, there shouldn’t be any more than 2-3 minutes a night for Evans (all of which should come at the end of the 1st and 2nd quarters to give the front line some rest)

So back to the game, it started with Calderon attacking the rim early. He was able to blow by Felton and get to the rim for a layup (he missed it, but he got there) and assisting on the first three buckets by Bosh and Bargnani. Penetrate, draw the defender, find the open man. Calderon is really a triple threat (shoot, drive, pass), and needs to attack the defense every chance he gets. The court will open up and give him more options on offense, but when he just throws the ball around the perimeter, or plays the high pick-n-roll, he is doing himself a disservice. Raymond Felton still abused him on offense, but that’s expected, probably not even worth mentioning.

Like Scott said, Bosh played harder in the first 4 minutes than he has since the All-Star break. When the franchise is motivated, his production isn’t hollow and it actually leads to results. Up until last night, he would be around his season average, but he did it invisibly. I know you’re frustrated dude, and I realize you like to lead by example, but not many folks are as naturally gifted as you, so when you dog your way to big numbers, others will follow suit without the same result. Something to think about for the rest of the year fam.

The second quarter saw more of the same from both squads. The Bobcats would penetrate, kick the ball and swing it till they got an open three, and the Raptors were led by an energized DeRozan who attacked the basket every chance he got. I really don’t want to gloss over the 3rd quarter, but it was more of the same: the Bobcats got open three after open three, but the Raptors kept it close with Calderon and Bosh attacking from the outside-in.

Calderon especially had a good quarter, going 3-3 from the field while dropping 2 dimes. I’m singling this out because Triano came out in the fourth with Jack instead of Jose, who was having a terrible game up until that point.

At first I thought it was just to give Calderon a rest so he can finish the game strong, but Jack really picked it up, scoring all 12 of his points in the frame, including 7 of the last 8 Raptor points (all at the line). Then I started to get nervous that as the game was coming down to the wire, Triano would snap and play Jack and Jose together, but he didn’t, and Jay rode the hot hand down the stretch.

Have to hand it to Triano who made some great decisions (sitting Hedo to start the game and gambling on Jack in the 4th). You know I don’t think highly of his coaching abilities, but he threw down the gauntlet and always had the right group on the court.

How about that Hedo? Think Triano got through to him? I know I do. Even though he wasn’t happy to start the game on the bench, Turkoglu was stone cold last night, and made some big plays. I know he was brought on as the #2 option, but if he can be the 6th man and hit daggers like that, including the eventual game winner, this team could be a handful in the playoffs (I won’t be holding my breath though).

With a few seconds left in the game, Felton blew by Jack, but turned it over. Part of it had to do with some decent defensive rotations and folks talking, and part of it had to do with Felton just throwing a bad pass. Either way, the Raptors played hard the whole game, and gave themselves an opportunity to win the game, and they took advantage.

The Raptors stayed in the game by protecting the ball, and crashing the offensive glass. They had 10 more shot attempts than the Bobcats, who were able to keep the game close by going 12-24 from beyond the arc (most were open looks) and solid shooting from the free throw line. The difference was Jack though, who went 7-8 from the line, all at the end of the 4th, validating Triano’s decision to play him over Calderon.

Had Carmelo not hit that game winner, and the Raptors held on just a bit longer against the Heat, the Raptors would be 7th in the East (ahead of the Bobcats because they now own the tiebreaker). So as bad as they have been recently, what is keeping this team back is as simple as one possession, or a couple minutes of unfocused play from being a better team. Had Triano laid down the law a bit alot earlier in the season, things may have been different for this team, just something to think about.

Effort and laziness comes into play for everyone at this point of the year, even us (mostly me) at Raptors Republic. It’s so hard to get up and write a quality post when the team you’re covering isn’t giving it their all. I have to admit that even though they lost against the Nuggets I felt they put in as good as effort as could be expected given how they have been playing recently. Actually, that could be the only game that I can accept when Bosh says:

We just have to put this behind us and move on to the next game. It just goes to show we’re gonna have to give (a strong) effort every night, from here until the season is over; If we do that, I think we’ll be in a better position for success later.

I usually hate when they say you have to forget that one and move on (mostly because they’ve been saying it all year), but when it comes down to it, they lost a tough game to a better team. Nothing more to it. Count me as one of people who would rather go to the playoffs and lose the 1st round pick to Miami, than be perpetually on the treadmill. By the sound of Bosh’s tone, he really thinks that they are really close to turning things around and make a run at something. I can only imagine he’s talking about this season/playoffs since as things stand, I doubt he would be looking past the playoffs at this point.

A few things from the Denver have made me hopeful for the stretch run:

• Bargnani’s play in the paint: the guy was a beast on the boards and played solid defense. Sure he didn’t have a good shooting night, but that has never been his problem. It’s clearly an issue of effort for Andrea, since he has shown that he can bang in the paint.
• Weems as a starter: I’ve always thought that his energy off the bench was more important than the lift he would give the starting five, but DeRozan seemed to have responded well.
• Wright settling in: could have been part of the plan to give the young bucks some run during the season then integrate Wright as a major piece heading into the playoffs, or not…but it’s working. Me thinks Wright will be crucial heading into the playoffs.
• They can do it without Hedo: yea, I said it. Hedo wasn’t missed at all on Friday (by me anyways). Wright/Weems/DeRozan/Belinelli can all fill the 2/3 by committee as far as I’m concerned, and there will be no drop off. I find it really unlikely that there is an on-switch that Hedo will flip to all-of-a-sudden be a killer in the next few weeks. Now it’s up to Triano to have some cajones and do something about it.

The Heat are 7-3 in their last 10, on a 4-game winning streak and sit a game out of 5th (just behind the Bucks). We all know the Raptors have owned the Heat over the last couple seasons (8-2 against them in the last 10), and we have always looked forward to playing them sine they aren’t really much of a team. Yes they have Wade, but the rest of the guys could be swapped out by anyone random baller, and you wouldn’t have a drop-off of any significance since Wade is just that good.

Basically this game comes down to a couple things:

1. Stop Wade – easier said than done, but without Wade gunning along, there is nothing on this team that can hurt you (unlike the Warriors who have weapons up and down that bench). Weems will have to be uber aggressive out the gate, and make Wade work on defensive as much as possible. To be frank, as long as Weems just keeps Wade in front of him, and limits his options off the dribble, that’s all we can hope for.
2. Pound the ball into the paint – Jermaine O’Neal is out with an injury (apparently) so Bosh and Bargnani will have to take it to Beasley and Anthony. No excuses, no laziness, no nothing-just hustle. If Bargnani can give us what he did against the Nuggets (a much better front line btw), and Bosh can limit the turnovers, this wont be close.
3. Continue the effort – the Carmelo Anthony game winner hurt, but the Raptors played a solid game to that point. They need to continue the effort tonight against the Heat. No exceptions, no excuses.

This is a big game against a conference rival who sits a couple games ahead of us. Can’t let the Bulls get any closer, and have a chance to move up the standings (especially since the next two are against the two teams sitting ahead of us in the standings). Do or die time boys.

Utah was a disaster, a big fat one. It was one of the most disappointing games I have ever seen. The effort was so bad that they could have easily lost by 45 points, and no one would have been surprised.

At this point of the year, and I’m sounding like a broken-record here, these sorts of performances shouldn’t be the norm for a team trying to build some momentum heading into the playoffs. Colangelo talked about the difference in the players since the All-Star break. He used the word “agenda” very deliberately, and deflected any blame from Triano, saying that it was up to the players to do what they are told to. This means that Triano has the bosses full support and will be back next season; which makes me sad.

The Nuggets have absolutely owned the Raptors the last three seasons, having, quite easily, won the last five meetings:

Nov. 17/09 – L 112-130
Dec. 2/08 – L 93-132
Dec. 31/08 – L 107-114
Mar. 14/08 – L 105-137
Mar. 23/08 – L 100-109

Brutal…

I checked in with Jeremy from the Roundball Mining Company, to get some insight into the Nuggets:

What’s going on with the Nuggets? Is what we’re seeing just a blip, or is there something bigger at play?
Right now there is no team dealing with a bigger distraction than Denver. As everyone knows their head coach is battling cancer and has reached a point physically where he cannot be with the team. Adrian Dantley has struggled at times and is probably hamstrung a little by the situation he is in. Plus Denver’s best interior defender and rebounder, Kenyon Martin, is out for an unknown period of time as he deals with patella tendonitis.

It is completely understandable why Denver is not playing their best. However, the level to which they have fallen goes beyond simply dealing with the stress and worry about Coach Karl and the absence of Martin. The effort they put forth defensively on Wednesday in Boston was completely unacceptable and they had similar lapses in New York. Offensively their perimeter shooters have been firing blanks from behind the arc, especially Chauncey and J.R. Smith, yet, when they are not shooting well, they seem to actually attempt more long jumpers which is a thought process that is foreign to me.

Denver is clearly capable of playing better, and they will, the question is when? Considering the way they have played their previous two games and the fact the game in Toronto is their only remaining game on this current five game trip against a non contending squad, I fully expect Denver to put forth a very strong and focused effort. If they do not, I fear their season could be irreparably damaged.

How bad a decision was it to give Camby away when you could have used his size against the likes of the Lakers in the playoffs?
I was fully in favor of the decision to trade Marcus Camby. He was an overrated defender in Denver as all he did was sit back and play for the blocked shot. He played horrible pick and roll defense, is too sparsely proportioned to defend in the post against other centers and is so limited offensively that on one occasion the Warriors decided to have Mickael Pietrus cover him and Marcus never even thought of trying to post him up. Camby was actually not a good matchup against the Lakers as he is too light in the keister to cover Andrew Bynum. He also struggled against the multi-talented Pau Gasol.

Of course, Camby is a gifted rebounder and it is obvious Denver could use another big to help in that department. Chris “Birdman” Andersen has filled Camby’s role relatively well and for much less cash, although he apparently thinks a box out is something you have to do when you are moving. Denver was hoping that a big like Drew Gooden was going to be available after the trade deadline, but that market never developed this season. They made a play for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but clearly he was never going anywhere but Cleveland.

What a lot of people do not realize is it was the Camby trade that created the financial wiggle room to make the trade for Chauncey Billups. Chauncey’s annual salary was nearly equal to what Camby was making and without dumping Camby’s contract they could not have taken on Chauncey’s. Plus it opened up more minutes for Nene who has responded with two very good, and healthy seasons.

Who do you guys want to see in the 1st round? Can the Nuggets get to the conference finals or beyond?
An ideal first round opponent would be the Oklahoma City Thunder. Denver matches up very well with them and I suspect it would be a very short series. Apart from the Thunder there are few teams I would dismiss. I have said since last season that I am not afraid of San Antonio until I see all three of their stars are healthy at the start of the postseason. It does appear the Spurs will be at full strength with Tony Parker slated to return soon and while I do not think they can make a deep run, they certainly would be a handful in the first round. If I had to pick a second team for the Nuggets to face it would be the Mavericks, although they are better than the team Denver routed last season. Next on the list would be Portland. Denver matches up pretty well with them and while I think the series would be a long hard fought one, I believe the Nuggets would prevail. The one team I am really afraid of is Phoenix, especially if the Suns have home court advantage. They are the one team who can outgun Denver game after game and it is entirely possible the Nuggets fall to fifth and have to play the Suns in the first round.

I have maintained all season that Denver is the second best team in the west, but have always added the caveat if healthy. As long as Kenyon Martin can return and be effective, and I must say I am dubious of speculation he will be ready to go for the playoffs, Denver can beat any team in the league. Along with adding Kenyon in order to reach their potential the Nuggets probably also need Karl to be back on the bench, but that too would seem to be a long shot.

What’s next for this team if this group can’t put it together and make a serious run?
I really do not want to entertain that notion, but their chances of repeating last season’s run are decreasing with every loss. Ideally Denver can rebound next season with Karl back to full health and each of their young players, Carmelo, Nene, J.R. Smith, Arron Afflao and Ty Lawson, a year closer to their prime. Denver could have some spots to fill with hangers on like Malik Allen, Anthony Carter, Joey Graham and Johan Petro in the last year of their contracts. Plus next season is finally the last year of Kenyon’s monster contract and in a tough economic climate a contract of that size could be very valuable. Then hopefully Denver is the team who can trade an important piece of their team to add a major piece of the puzzle, have him bought out, wait 30 days and bring him back for the playoffs.

All of that sounds nice, but it might not be reality. The really, really bad news for Nuggets fans is with owner Stan Kroenke proving to be exceedingly disinterested in paying the luxury tax they could see wholesale changes this summer. Depending on where the tax level falls for 2010-11 Denver’s top five players alone could make them a tax paying team. There has been no real discussion about it in the media, but I would not be surprised if the Nuggets are forced to dump another player in the next few months. That would be a blow that I doubt they could overcome.

If we really want to look long term, you may have heard the recent scuttlebutt about Carmelo having an early termination clause after next season. Picture him as a free agent at the same time the Nuggets are tightening the purse strings and dropping down the standings. I find the chances he will leave minute, but they are real enough I had to write a post about it earlier this week.

What are George Karl’s strength’s and weaknesses? How is he doing with the cancer battle, how is the team responding?
I would say that George Karl’s greatest strength with this team is the fact he has gone toe to toe with some of the most important players on the roster, but unlike in the past it seems to have made them closer. At times he seemed like Karl was the last remaining guard during a prison riot. He has battled with Carmelo, Kenyon and J.R. Smith and all of them seem to have come out of the other side better for it although he and J.R. do not seem to be on great terms. At least Smith realizes even though he may not like what Karl says or does, it is all designed to make him a better player.

As far as weaknesses there are a number of little things that get on the fans’ nerves. He tends to be too passive on the bench from time to time and his intensity seems to ebb and flow from game to game. If I had to criticize him about something, it would have to be that he has not done a very good job of maintaining the defensive emphasis that served Denver so well last season. Heading into training camp in 2008 it was made clear that the happy go lucky ways were gone and that he was going to get the team back under control. He pulled it off and Denver was a vastly improved defensive team in 2008-09 even without Camby. This season they have become a more offensive oriented team again and the attention to detail defensively is not there.

As far as his health the treatment Karl is enduring has been very painful. If you have not seen it I encourage everyone to read this article by Rick Riley documenting what Karl is going through. Over the weekend he had a problem with blood clots in his legs. That issue is reportedly resolved, but he is certainly in a great deal of pain every minute of every day. We can only pray that the treatment is successful.

As far as the impact on the team at first they seemed to rally around it, but recently Chauncey spoke about how they miss having their leader around and from the perspective of an outsider I would say the spirit of the team is low. Karl has told them the best medicine for him right now is wins and I am a little surprised that the biggest problem with the team recently has been effort.

If the Raptors want to do a good deed I suggest letting the Nuggets win tonight. It really is the humane thing to do.

Interesting that Karl chooses to go toe-to-toe with his players as opposed to Triano, who seemingly indulges the players after terrible performances saying that the effort was there but they just fell short a couple times blah blah blah.

I expect to see a few things this game:

• Chauncey to have 20pts 11ast 5rebs 2st – it’s time for him to come out of this little funk of his
• JR Smith to go 4-8 from behind the arc, all open shots, and all of them daggers
• Nene to have 20 points in the paint, 6 offensive rebounds, and be the best front line player on the floor (of either team)
• Bosh to have 24pts 11rebs
• Raptors to lose by 21
• For all the gamblers to take Denver at -5.5; that’s about as close to a sure thing as you can get

Join us tonight at the Sports Centre Cafe for Raptor Fans Friday. For the rest of you, we will be on Twitter, and in the RR live chat.

]]> http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/03/26/gameday-raptors-vs-nuggest-mar-2610/feed/ 15 http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/12/07/meet-christopher-wesson-bosh/ http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/12/07/meet-christopher-wesson-bosh/#comments Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:28:08 +0000 Prospect http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=13001

The Raptors’ franchise (and max contract) player
By: Tom Liston

Free agency 2010 talk drives me crazy. I believe Chris Bosh hasn’t made up his mind. How can he? He doesn’t know how this team will finish. Nor does he know what teams will have cap room and what their plans are. However, more frustrating are the comments I’ve read recently about him not being worth a maximum contract. Frankly, I was shocked, but it was worth “refreshing” my own thoughts on the topic so I did a bit more research and concluded that:

Chris Bosh is absolutely a max-contract/franchise player.

There are approximately 30 players in and around that “max” contract type number (http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm). Some of these players have been quite overpaid in hindsight (e.g. Jermaine O’Neal) and others are due for large raises. And not every team will be able to afford to pay a maximum contact. So, let’s say that there are a solid 20 players that can be considered franchise/max players. In that context, let’s see where Mr. Bosh is currently for the 2009-10 season:



Sources: NBA.com and Basketball-reference.com / For win shares calculation / PER rankings

Mr. Bosh is top 10 in every major “overall” efficiency ranking. While PER, NBA Efficiency, Win Shares and Adjusted +/- all have drawbacks (there simply isn’t a “holy grail” of overall efficiency), the data is telling.

Besides the obvious positives from the scoring and overall rebounding numbers Bosh puts up, there are a two metrics that jump out to me: free throws attempted and offensive rebounds. These are two metrics which have an understated impact on winning games. Bosh being number 1 in free throw attempts is huge. It largely means he’s getting a key opposing big in foul trouble (and scoring points at the same time). This usually leads to easier attempts by his teammates as it often “opens” up the lane due to the lack of presence of the opponent’s key big. Offensive rebounds is another statistic that may not be fully appreciated. Not only did you “save” a possession, but you likely were able to put up a highly efficient shot. Ranking 5^th (per game) in the league is impressive.

So you ask, who shows up on the top of Win Shares, PER, and Adjusted +/- rankings?

Well, maybe you didn’t, but it’s: LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash… oh and some guy named Christopher Wesson Bosh. And only four of them (yes, Mr. Bosh included) were on top of all three categories) It’s difficult to say if Mr. Bosh continues on this pace (see Blake Murphy’s great post for the data from last year), but there is little doubt in my mind he’s one of the premier players in the game today and certainly a maximum contract or “franchise” player.



“But he hasn’t taken his team to the promised land” one may argue. I’ll counter that view by saying you need another star (or “near-star”) and key role players to do this. Shaq had Kobe, Kobe had Shaq, Bird had McHale/Parrish/DJ, Magic had Kareem, Jordan had Pippen, Duncan had Ginobilli/Parker, etc. Bosh has yet to receive this quality support.

“But his defense isn’t up to par”. Two things: i) his Adjusted +/- partly accounts for this and his number is great ii) you tend to have play help D much more often when your 4 teammates are generally very poor defenders. This can exaggerate (negatively) your own performance.

Statistics sometimes “lie”. But watching many of the games this year, you see Bosh dig deep to pull games out. He is not a “create-my-own-shot-with-5-seconds” left type of player. No centre or power forward is. But he helps his team win games – throughout the game – and does it extremely well.

Chris Bosh is a special player. A franchise player. A maximum contract player. And a player that I want in a Raptors uniform for a long time.

]]> http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/12/07/meet-christopher-wesson-bosh/feed/ 222 http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/17/gameday-raptors-vs-nuggets-nov-1709/ http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/17/gameday-raptors-vs-nuggets-nov-1709/#comments Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:13:00 +0000 Sam Holako http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=12430 ...Continue Reading]]> That was a killer game against the Suns. Like tennis, this is a game of inches. Had Hedo nailed that shot at the buzzer, the Raptors would have been 2-0 on this four game Western swing, 6-4 on the season, and heading into Denver on a three game winning streak. You can hardly blame this on Hedo though, he had already stuck two clutch shots to give the Raptors a lead with a few seconds left in the game. Coming out of a timeout, you would hope there was more planned then our boy taking his man one-on-one off the dribble, but there wasn’t, and he didn’t. We ended up with something that “we could build on.”

Whatever that means, I’m hoping we can build on it quick, because we just rolled into Denver. I’ve been dreading this one since the schedule was published. Last season, we dropped both games to them, 132-93 & 114-107, the former being the day Colangelo gave up on the season 17 games in (8-9). In fact, that first game was the type that no one talked about the next day. Everyone went to school/work, hung their head low, and when the subject of the Raptors came up, we all were like “they’re in Utah on Friday.”

There is one sub-plot tonight, the return of Joey Graham. Every last one of us was happy to see Jamario Moon jack and miss his jumpers against the Raptors when Cleveland came to town on opening night (I was laughing like a maniac the whole time, it was good to exorcise those demons). I’m hoping for the same tonight. Joey Graham was the last bad reminder of the Babcock era, every single time I  saw him, all I could think about was what we gave up to draft him at 16 (Granger). I had heard good things about him early in the season, where he was supposed to start or something, but that didn’t work out. I fear the only way we see him tonight is if either team is losing badly, or at the end of quarters while Carmelo is getting pampered on the bench.

The Match-ups

The Point: After a horrible start, Jose seems to be back. Over his last 5, he is averaging 14pts and 7.6ast a game, about what we expect. His defense has improved some, but really, it’s not that good. After having to deal with Nash and Davis the last two, he gets to finish this trip on Chauncey and Williams. One elite PG after another. I don’t like this match-up at all for Calderon. Unlike the other two, Chauncey will make life for Jose hell on defense as well. This is going to be a full court ordeal for Jose, who is going to be pushed every which-way possible.
The Edge: Denver

The Skill: At some point this season, we will have to move DeRozan to the bench if he doesn’t bump it up a notch. He’s only playing 17 a game, but half of that comes at the start of the game when you’re feeling out your opponent and setting a tone for the rest of the game. Hardly the time to let your raw rookie get some burn. Tonight he gets Arron Afflalo, who has been a great addition to the Nuggets replacing Dahntay Jones in the starting five. We can expect Arron to attack the offensive glass, and slash to the basket. He’s also the only safe bet to leave on a double-team situation. He isn’t a lock down defender, so if DeRozan can keep active and run around the court, he can shake free. Hopefully DeRozan isn’t too cold to play.
The Edge: Denver

The Wing: Hedo had his first chance on Sunday to live up to the pedigree he came to the Raptors with, but fell short after hitting his first two clutch shots. I can deal with it, since he had a pretty damn good game before that. Sadly, his production comes in waves. He has a goodish/greatish game, then disappears for a game or two. He’ll have his hands full with Carmelo tonight to start with but look for Wright (if healthy) or Belinelli to switch at some point. Like Jose, Hedo will be tested on both ends of the floor, and even if he was healthy (dude keeps wincing…I hate wincing), this is not a favourable match-up. The fact that he isn’t 100% almost guarantees this to be a bad one.
The Edge: Denver

The Big: I’m just going to go on a limb and say that Chris should be able to handle Kenyon tonight. With the added muscle and the MVP caliber run so far, I have zero reservations. Doesn’t mean that this will be a walk in the park, though. Martin has a nose for the ball and as Jeremy from Round Ball Mining Company says “Martin can score, it just rarely looks pretty.” The match-up fully favours Bosh here, but we can’t sleep on Martin. He has hurt the Raptors in the past, making defensive stops in the dying moments of the game. He will rotate defensively on penetration, just have to find an open/waiting Bosh for the dish. Could be textbook.
The Edge: Toronto

The Strong: This just isn’t going to work out well for Bargnani tonight. Nene is a pitbull. An energy guy who is an efficient scorer. He always gets after it. Bargnani only has a size advantage here and that may be marginal since Nene is a big boy who is also equally quick. I just don’t see it. Frye dropped 20 on us on Sunday and all he did was stand on the perimeter waiting for a pass. Nene is going to earn every single point/rebound he gets, and each one has the potential to make Andrea look silly.
The Edge: Denver

The Backup: Anyone else think that Belinelli/Johnson are the bizarro Smith/Anderson? Seriously…Belinelli and Smith are the kamikaze scorers who come off the bench and hit ridiculous shots. Johnson and Anderson are the energy guys who grab rebounds, put down dunks and are crowd favourites. Wright needs to stop shooting jumpers, even if he’s open, and Jack should only be allowed to take it to the rack and either lay it up, or kick it out to a shooter. Have to say, it looks pretty even on the pine.
The Edge: Even

The Brain: Triano had a brain fart on Sunday giving Jack too much burn in the 4th. All it took was a few minutes for the momentum to shift in Phoenix’s favour, and that’s all it’s going to take against the Nuggets who are elite in their own right. I shudder to think what Billups/Smith will do to Calderon/Jack if Triano insists on playing them together. Shudder. As much as I hate Karl, he has this one.
The Edge: Denver

Injury Report

Raptors
Reggie Evans – out
Antoine Wright – questionable

Nuggets
Anthony Carter – questionable

The Line

Vegas has the line at Nuggets -8.5 with an over/under of 219

How to Win This Game

I got nothing here. The Nuggets are a much better team that we don’t match-up well against. IF we keep them off the boards, and IF we hit all our shots, and IF Carmelo has an off-night, there is a chance.

Prediction

Jeremy’s SIM says the Nuggets win 126-117, and that sounds about right to me.

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