I’m sick as a dog, so this will be a short one…

Tonights game will mark the second time this season the Raptors and Rockets throw down. The first time around, Bargnani came up huge, and the bench had his back as the team played as close to a perfect game as the Raptors possibly could against a Rockets team that has been playing rather well considering they were missing Yao and Aaron Brooks.

I spoke with Jacob from Red94 about the Rockets:

So the Yao Ming era is over for the Rockets huh? Given his history of injuries (and the potential of never playing again), and all the expiring contracts out there, what is a realistic trade scenario you see happening?
While it warms my heart to know the Rockets’ marriage to Yao has been one of basketball-related devotion (and not commercial), the opportunities out there for Yao’s contract to be dealt sit somewhere between slim and none. The most attractive part of his deal will be the $8 million of the $17 million he’s owed that will be covered by insurance (though the entire contract will still count against the salary cap any team in possession of it) thanks to his most recent season-ending injury, an almost-panacea for this league’s poorer millionaire owners. The problem with dealing such relief remains that it’s hard to find a team so broke that it will simply give up $17 million worth of assets, expiring contracts or not, for some money and a broken icon who will likely never play a game for said team. Rockets fans will bring up Andre Iguodala (because doesn’t everybody at this point?), but unless Morey suddenly takes an interest in Rashard Lewis or Brandon Roy or Elton Brand, that large man and his large expiring deal will likely run out in Houston.

Kyle Lowry has been pretty solid this season (I own him in my fantasy league); with Aaron Brooks coming back from injury, can the two of them play together in the back-court, or will we see Kyle’s minutes slashed?
There had been a pretty healthy debate over who would be the ideal starter among the two before the season began, so after Lowry’s success as the primary point man, the discussion has only gotten more heated. Brooks seems so perfectly suited to the role of the 6th man, an offensive sparkplug who could ideally share the court with Lowry to close out games (although that would likely invite a three-guard-lineup featuring Martin that would mirror Dallas’, except for the whole not-having-Tyson-Chandler thing), but Aaron Brooks has earned his role as the starter. He’s the team’s best offensive option in crunch time and bid his time while watching Rafer Alston fling up errant threes his first couple of years, making any transition back to the bench after the work he’s put in seem like punishment for success. I expect the two point men who have shared the backcourt quite ably over the last two years to do quite well together given the added confidence on Lowry’s part from his successful run starting, but if you’re a fantasy owner of Lowry, I hope your league is Sarlaac-Pit-deep because Brooks will likely be starting by the end of January, especially if the Rockets hit any kind of rough patch.

So how’s that Ariza/Lee trade working out for you?
Well… the moves for both prove Daryl Morey may not be infallible, but the deal sure seems quite prescient on a financial level at least. Lee’s shown promise as a defensive stopper/energy player (and his three-point shot off of the catch is gravy, a lot more than I can say for Ariza), but that deal looks more and more like the salary dump every pundit claimed it was when the deal was made as the days go by.

Scola is having a career year, after signing a massive contract, at 30 no less. He has been improving year over year, but this is a dramatic jump; what’s changed? Will he still be contributing at a high level?
My opinion diverges from the majority of the Rockets fanbase here, but I think Luis Scola has always been this good (his numbers after Carl Landry was dealt last year are equally impressive). And by this good, I mean perfectly fine and the exact kind of player that a team like the Rockets cannot afford to have on contract for three years after this (the last year of his deal is partially guaranteed, ensuring his trade bait status in 2014-15). His production comes from abusing mismatches and finding his spots on the court, excellent skills to have if the player in question is one of a team’s lesser options; unfortunately, he has been the Rockets’ second-best player in 2010, a big reason for the team’s mediocrity. Scola himself has done nothing but produce at full-tilt all year, but his age already raises concerns (and his defense can only get more excruciating) while four years remain on his chunky contract. He exemplifies the all-world role player, and the Rockets should be glad if they find the all-world team that needs to add one of those and seems willing to send back some youth, draft picks and/or cap flexibility in return.

Other than Yao potentially getting traded, what else is in the cards for the Rockets?
Aaron Brooks looks to be the most likely Rocket to be traded, well before Yao or Scola. His contract expires after this year as he thinks extension, meaning Houston will be looking to get some kind of value for his contract before the deadline. There has also been a lot of talk including Anthony Randolph as the Knicks vehemently try and stock up draft picks (even their old ones that Morey took from them as recently as last year) in order to bring Carmelo to the Mecca; let’s just say that I would be more than enthused to try and let Randolph develop his superhuman skillset in the H. Otherwise, um, we’re getting Chris Paul and Melo, and watch out in 2012, suckas (I figure Bill Simmons and Peter Vescey try to will such trades via nonsensical rumors; I am no better).

Injury Report

Toronto
Andrea Bargnani – Out
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out
Jose Calderon – Day-to-day
Sonny Weems – Day-to-day

Houston
Yao Ming – Done
Chuck Hayes – Out
Kevin Martin – Day-to-day

Match-ups

Point Guard
The Rockets are currently 2nd in the league in assists per game, this starts with the PG’s and Kyle Lowry has been solid in Aaron Brooks’ absence. Between the two of them, they average about 12 dimes a match, with the everyone else on the team chipping a couple a game. Brooks will be coming off the bench for a few more games, so his energy and scoring from a 6th man role. With Calderon potentially out for tonight, Bayless needs to do better than the 2-10 performance he turned in against the Mavs. I’d feel a lot better if Jose was around to bring some stability to the point, but Barbosa’s speed and aggressiveness will go a long way in countering Brooks off the bench.
Edge: Rockets

Shooting Guard
DeMar’s been playing really well over the last 5 games, averaging 16.2pts a match; but he needs to get to the line much more than 5 a game he’s averaging. He can take some notes from Kevin Martin tonight (if he plays, he should), who gets to the line almost 9 times a game – easy/cheap points. So since both these guys don’t play much defense, it’s going to come down to who scores more, and my money is on Martin. Although his shot is ugly, it’s deadly, and he does a great job of getting to the line and getting folks into foul trouble.
Edge: Rockets

Small Forward
I’m not sure which has been my saving grace: Weems being injured or Kleiza playing up to potential? Regardless, the venom I’ve been spewing at the both of them has dropped considerably. With Weems out of the picture, I’m liking Kleiza’s Yin to Wrights Yang; lame I know, but it’s a nice 1-2 combo that covers a lot of angles. Battier and Budinger are basically the same player, but one is younger. They can knock down open threes, play solid defense and smart basketball. Gotta go with Kleiza/Wright on this one, since neither have the size/strength to defend Linas in the paint.
Edge: Toronto

Power Forward
Ed Davis is coming off a ridiculous career game that has let him crack the Top 10 rookie ladder for the first time. While he wont be averaging 17pts 12rebs 3stl 3blks for the rest of the season, we can expect a significant contribution from out boy; at least while he gets increased minutes while Bargnani’s out. As for Amir, AltRaps said it best:

Playing hurt, he turned in 42 minutes of simply inspired play. Hard nosed off the ball, attacking on both ends of the floor, playing with smarts. You simply couldn’t have asked for a better game from a wounded soldier.

We will need both these guys playing a high level against Scola, who’s playing huge. The last time around, the Raptors had the luxury of great performances from Bargnani, Evans, Johnson and Andersen (the latter two off the bench). Even with wave-after-wave of Raptor big man coming at him, Scola still put up a solid 19pts 6rebs 3ast. Tonight, the depth isn’t there, so Amir/Davis will have to dig in tight.
Edge: Even

Center
Neither Dorsey or Hayes are real centers in the league, but they’ve been thrust into this position. Both these guys are brutes in the paint. Expect one of them to die by halftime.
Edge: Even

The Line

Houston is 8.5 point favourites with an over/under of 212.5. Expect a fast paced, up and down match.

Happy New Years Eve.

Not sure if you realized, but 8 of the last 10 games the Raptors played were on the road. They only won 2 of them, but if you’re an optimist, they’re 2-2 in their last four; that’s something right? It’s definitely been a trial by fire to start the year, and from some of the rumours I’ve been hearing, Triano is a dead man walking. I personally don’t think it’s the right move to fire him, not that I think he’s a good coach, but it really wasn’t fair to hand him this team and expect much out of the situation. We’re good at the mob mentality in Toronto, so if people scream bloody murder loud enough, it might force BryCo’s hand in the matter.

Had a really good discussion with Jacob Mustafa from Red94, about the rough start to the year the Rockets are having, as well as a bold claim:

I’m actually stunned how poorly the Rockets have started the season; yes they played 7 of their first 10 on the road, but this was supposed to be a team that went into the playoffs and could have made some noise. Defense, which used to be a staple, has fallen off the map. What happened?
If you’re stunned by this year’s start, you can’t imagine the jaws agape among Rockets fans. I know the notion might seem crazy, but plenty of Rockets followers had gotten attached to the idea that this team might be the only answer to the Lakers in this conference thanks to years of tough matchups with them (that almost always ended in defeat except for one glorious seven game series… in which four of them ended in defeat). To see the team flailing along and struggling to get its head above water just feels incongruous, and I think most Rockets fans are still dealing with the shock of cheering for a below-average team. As for defense, the answer is simple; this team built its defensive mindset with a certain roster and with a certain coach, and now only three of those players remain on the roster, while the coach bickers with Mark Jackson to make ends meet. The defensive powerhouse that was the Houston Rockets simply dissipated, too far removed from its source to be its own entity.

You essentially traded Ariza for Lee, and he’s been a huge disappointment. This is a two part questions: 1) why did you make that trade 2) why isn’t Lee performing?
Money was saved, and an asset was gained. Observers have flippantly written that move off as a straight salary dump, and while I do think the Rockets were prudent to cut their losses (Ariza fit on the Rockets like the glove fit OJ), Lee simply fit in better with what Rockets management thought its team would be. As for Lee’s performance, he’s simply seemed out of it, though he is being saddled with the responsibility of a ballhandler at times, a role for which he’s almost cartoonishly ill-suited.

I heard some grumblings that the Rockets are still in the market to land Chris Bosh after an unsuccessful summer courtship. Can you shed any light on this subject?
After Wednesday’s rise from the grave, I doubt Bosh will be mentioned in trade talks for a while (like 4 years), but I’m pretty sure that was all based on a Jason Whitlock article where he got his Peter Vescey on and just started spouting ridiculous trade scenarios for Bosh. The Rockets’ chances at Bosh range somewhere between snowball in hell and long-term viability of Disney pop stars.

Yao Ming…I feel bad for the guy. At what point do you say “enoughs-enough” and try to salvage something for him?
Through consistent under-performance, the Houston Rockets have been one of the NBA’s more profitable franchises; that is mostly thanks to the giant one, Yao Ming. This team obviously needs a new building block, but the Rockets’ attachment to Yao runs much deeper than who the offense should be run through. This will likely be the major conflict of the Rockets’ season if playoffs keep looking less and less possible.

How do the Rockets match-up against the Raptors?
The Rockets have been decimated by super-athletic perimeter players in recent weeks, especially stud point guards; though Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon are fine game managers, they don’t exactly strike the same fear in me as names like Paul, Rose and Westbrook. If Demar Derozan can be contained and Reggie Evans doesn’t decide to eat our faces and collect 752 rebounds, I think the Rockets’ “depth” will be a little too much for the Raptors. I also think Houston’s big man who plays no defense but can pour in buckets, Luis Scola, is better at this point in his career than the Raps’, Andrea Bargnani.

Injuries

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Should Play
Linas Kleiza – Achillies, Should Play

Houston
Aaron Brooks – Ankle, Out
Yao Ming – Leg, Out
Chase Budinger – Ankle, Day-to-day

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Lowry
One of my favourite parts the season so far has been how we’ve flip-flopped between Jack and Calderon depending on who had the better. Overall, we each have a favourite, but going between them is funny; even if you’re doing it in your head. That said, we can all agree when one (or both) of them is playing like doodoo, and Jack has been playing like doodoo of late: 7pts 3reb 3reb over the last 3 games. The good news tonight is that Brooks is out, and his lightning quick speed and scoring ability will not have us face-palming for large stretches of the game. Lowry is an energetic player, who runs the break well, but doesn’t make the best decisions. His jumper is poor, so there is no reason we should see Jack play him tight right? Let the guy shoot, and keep him away from the glass since he rebounds so well for a 6″ guard. The kids got a knack for getting to the line, so like I said again…let him shoot all he wants.
Edge: Jack

SG – DeRozan vs Martin
So we can all agree that DeMar isn’t a 26pt/game scorer, but he’s also not a 6pt/game guy either. He needs to consistently be dropping 14-17 points every single night if this team wants to be in games for the rest of the year. Martin is an excellent scorer who can get his from anywhere, and most alarmingly, from the line. The kid is great at getting to the line, and great at hitting his free throws. His shot is ugly, but it’s deadly. He gets to the rim, has nice head fakes, and will score an obscene amount of points tonight. The only chance DeRozan has is to go back at him, since he’s such a terrible defender and either get him into foul trouble, or go tit-for-tat on offense. I’m feeling positive on this one for DeMar after a brutal performance against the Sixers, he should be back, but beating Martin in this match-up will be challenging, especially if the pace of the game picks up.
Edge: Martin

SF – Weems vs Battier
Shane Battier is like Anthony Parker to me: a classy, hard working guy who makes good decisions, plays defense and makes their shots; all with a good attitude. He’s a solid cat, and would play for my team anytime. Weems is going to have to play a smart game tonight, since that’s how Shane rolls. He isn’t very athletic, but his length and high basketball IQ make him a solid defender. Weems wont have to worry about him attacking off the dribble, but if he floats a little too much on help, Battier will stick shots from the corner. Weems can use his athleticism to attack Battier off the dribble, but he should avoid over dribble and make his move quick; which he’s been doing a good job of recently. Sonny can get out on the break, and has the advantage if this gets into an up-and-down/running game. I’m looking forward to seeing this match-up play out.
Edge: Even

PF – Evans vs Scola
You have to give Evans his due: he’s playing within himself during games, and being a vocal leader of this team in the locker room. Before the Sixers game, he got the guys together to get everyone on the same page, and they won. I hope he did the same thing tonight, since this Rockets team isn’t as bad as their record says they are. He absolutely will have his hands full with Scola, as the Argentine is having a ridiculous start to the season. Luis is a crafty scorer in the post who can hit the mid-range jumper; he’s deadly from 15ft in where he’s shooting 54% this season. The one knock is that he isn’t the best defender, which wont hurt him much tonight against Evans who isn’t looking to score when he touches the ball as a first option. Scola’s rebounding has come down some since the first four games, but he is more than capable of battling on the glass if the Raptors front court lets up. This is going to be a 1-2 attack with Reggie and Amir giving Scola different looks at different points of the game. Given Johnson’s propensity to foul, Scola might get the nod in that match-up too unless Amir uses his head before trying to out muscle Luis.
Edge: Scola

C – Bargnani vs Miller
It’s amazing Miller is able to move. At this point in his career, he’s really just filler until Yao can play major minutes. Bargnani has an advantage in every facet of the game tonight, and needs to establish himself from the tip (hopefully winning it tonight). I know I’m glossing over this rather quickly, but if Andrea doesn’t dominate this match-up, there is really something wrong with him.
Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Rebounding
The Rockets are the 4th best rebounding team in The Association. Everyone crashes the boards, and makes an effort on the glass. The Raptors aren’t slouches either, even though they are 16th in the league, they only grab 2.5 less rebounds a game than the Rockets. Controlling the glass will be critical since Houston is also 4th in the league in offense (next point), and if you control the glass, you control the tempo of the game, and force them to play a different style; all on the road.

Defense
The Rockets are 4th in scoring, with a Pace Factor of 100 (# of possessions used in a game). This also ties back to rebounding since the Raptors are the 4th best team in Offensive Rebounding Rate, if they can grab a few more rebounds, the Rockets will get a few less possessions. Regardless of that, with Aaron Brooks out, Kevin Martin and Scola are the focus on offense, and need to be respected as such. DeRozan can’t be taking tonight off, and playing passively. Scola gets the room to operate in the mid-range because K-Mart attracts so much attention on the perimeter. One of these two need to be shut down, and since Evans is a weaker defender than I’d like, it will be tasked to DeRozan (and Weems in certain match-ups) to play Martin tough. I’m not so confidant in this, so rebounding will be crucial to control the flow…ok I’m rambling, but you see where I’m going.

Pick-up where they left in Philly
It’s not like we haven’t played well before. The energy, assertiveness and will to win on our homecourt need to be there from the tip. Like I said earlier, the Rockets are a lot better than they have shown, and need to be respected as such. Can’t get down early, can’t take bad shots, the ball needs to be moved around, and every needs to be vocal on defense.

The Line

This game is even, and that’s exactly how I see it. The Raptors can win it, but they have to take it; the Rockets wont be laying down. This is an important game since we got the Celtics on Sunday.

In Toronto? Come on down to Sports Center Cafe for Raptor Fan Fridays.

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One love.

We have about a month until the NBA Draft and free agency kicks in, so I decided to talk to some of the teams around the NBA that have been linked to Chris Bosh and the Raptors in one way or another to get a feel for their franchise, and what we could expect back in a sign and trade.

While the early offers for CB4 have not been very exciting (you’ll see when we get to them), they do paint a picture of why trades are so difficult, especially when you have your back to the wall. While I don’t think the picture is so bleak in regards to Bosh (I still think he resigns; there is no sane reason why he would either), I concede that we wont even get 40 cents on the dollar for our franchise player.

First stop, I check in with Rahat Huq from The Houston Rockets TrueHoop blog Red94. Overall, he’s a good guy, a bit delusional, but he knows his stuff (I can’t wait till we resign Bosh so I get my face on his website banner for a week or so):

Sam Holako: Are you guys regretting replacing Artest with Ariza? Maybe I’m just being biased, but Artest took pretty much the same team to game 7 against the Lakers last year, and Ariza couldn’t even get them into the playoffs.

Rahat Huq: Not at all. I fully appreciate the contributions Ron made to this team last season, and it was definitely a surreal ride. But let’s be clear – he didn’t take this team anywhere against the Lakers and in fact, was a complete liability offensively.

For the series, Ron shot just 38% from the floor (28% from 3) in averaging his 15.6 points per game and was even more dreadful when we needed him most upon the injury to Yao, averaging just 9.5ppg in the last 4 games, on 28% shooting (and a terrifying 15% on his 26 3-point attempts.)

Ariza wasn’t brought here to get the team anywhere; Trevor was signed to be a complementary piece. He struggled early due to being forced into a high usage role out of necessity, but settled in very nicely after the arrival of Kevin Martin.

SH: Let’s not beat around the bush; make me an offer for Chris Bosh.

RH: These are my two offers:

1) Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Jared Jeffries, Dave Andersen, Jermaine Taylor, one Knick draft pick
2) Jordan Hill, Shane Battier, Dave Andersen, Jermaine Taylor, one Knick draft pick.

Andersen and Taylor included to make the numbers match – I could be slightly off on the figures.

SH: That offer makes me sad…very very sad. While Hill and the Knicks pick could have big value, I think I can speak for the rest of The Republic when I say that we expected more of an offer. I honestly haven’t even heard of Dave Andersen and Jermaine Taylor. The problem with your offer is that you think the Raptors have no leverage in this, but they do. Everyone knows that Chris Bosh wont leave the franchise high-and-dry for no other reason than if he does, he’s out 1 year and $30mill. Just for being insolent, Colangelo can use this S&T as a means to get rid of some dead weight in the form of either Calderon or Turkoglu. Let’s figure Jose since Brooks isn’t really a point guard, and you guys will need someone who knows how a pick-n-roll works.

RH: The inclusion of Andersen and Taylor would simply be for salary matching purposes. As far as our offer, I think you are coming in with unrealistic expectations. Look at the history of sign&trades for max players. From Chucky Atkins and Ben Wallace (when he was a nobody), to draft picks for Rashard Lewis and Kenyon Martin, you won’t find a package even approaching the attractiveness of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and a lightly protected probable lottery pick.

SH: I have a feeling we might get into a fist-fight…so lets talk about Yao. The guy misses a whole season, is largely forgotten around the league, but should make a full recovery and be Über effective next season. The prospect of playing against a Bosh/Yao front court is scary; what are the plans for him going forward?

RH: He’s resumed workouts and is on schedule with his recovery.

I think the organization plans to limit his minutes and usage next season, and that shouldn’t be too great a concern considering some of the other parts that are in place. Still, Yao’s greatest value to the team is on the defensive end where, while he is not the best of shotblockers, he is as good as just about anyone at protecting the paint.

Yao/Bosh would indeed be scary simply because their skillsets mesh so perfectly. I’ve long felt that Yao was a finisher rather than an initiator. With Bosh’s high post abilities, he would provide the team a focal point from which to start its offense.

SH: Suppose in a bizzarro NBA world the Raptors sign-and-trade Bosh for Jordan Hill and spare parts, how do the Rockets matchup against the rest of the Western Conference? What can we expect from them?

RH: They won 42 games without Yao and Bosh and with a major personnel change midway through the season. If they can add what would have to be the best power forward – center duo in basketball in Yao – Bosh to the quintet of Scola-Lowry-Brooks-Martin-Ariza, along with a lottery pick, you would have to expect a significant increase in wins. Will they contend immediately? The talent is certainly there, but I think it could take a while and at least some growing pains to reach that level.

Based on your indignation over my proposal, I think you’re really suffering from delusions of grandeur. If a package of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and a future lottery pick would not suffice, in light of what has been bartered in past sign & trades of this type (Atkins/Wallace, only picks), I must ask, what exactly are you hoping for? It’s true that the Raptors hold leverage, but to a certain degree. They’ll pick the destination, but they won’t exactly be able to extract a king’s ransom, nor will they be able to offload their garbage (Calderon, Turkoglu.)

Some of the comments your readers had after our first set of questions were great and I feel they deserve a proper response. I wish I could respond to everyone but you have such a great following on Raptors Republic that I think I’d be writing until well after the draft

Keep in mind I was trying to issue a relatively short answer to a specific question regarding the Raptors drafting a SG or SF at the #9 spot in the draft. Perhaps I should have started the conversation by saying the first thing that needs to be done is a compilation of the pre-draft assets the Raps have to work with this year. For example, the Portland Trail Blazers have these tools to work with: 5 draft picks (24, 32, 38, 55, and 56), approximately $6.5 Million under the salary cap (which is a number that won’t be exact until the NBA calculates the exact cap figure based on this year’s revenue), a $3 Million Trade Exception (from a trade at the deadline), plus they own the rights to a couple young guys playing in Europe right now.

Secondly, the Raptors need to decide what they’ll do in Free-Agency, how much money they have to work with and who they’ll try to resign off their current roster. Finally, a decision should be made (and probably has been) as to the direction of the team. One of your readers commented that he wanted to take DeMar DeRozan because in the long run he’d be the best player and one argument I had made was to trade down and take a more mature player who could contribute now (Sam Young, Terrance Williams, Gerald Henderson). There are a few things to consider here, first, rookie contracts usually only last 3-4 years so to wait for a guy to come along means the direction you are taking is ‘player development and cost saving’ in that you most likely won’t spend a lot in free agency trying to make a run for the playoffs. If you are like the Blazers coming off 50 plus wins, you are seeing your window of opportunity now and thus feel spending money gives you a chance to win. Aiming for the achievement of your goals now rather than player development for future success. Veteran FA’s worth any considerable value are not going to sign with a club that is developing a young roster. Look at Memphis and Oklahoma City, young talent that is not winning regularly versus the Boston Celtics who went out and got veteran FA’s by working the cap and draft picks to come up with assets to win now.

Finally, another reader mentioned the idea of trading up. I also mentioned this with respect to James Harden if he is your guy. I don’t have any problems with this either IF you feel strongly that Harden is your guy and you have the ability (assets) to make it happen such as multiple 2nd Rd. picks to unload. There have been considerable rumors that 2, 3, 4 could move because after Blake Griffin it is somewhat wide open. Perhaps the Raps see that window and make a move. However, until we know what assets the Raptors have to work with and the direction they want to take the franchise then it’s going to be difficult to get a good gauge on what they will do.

A few random notes from the combine and recent team workouts:

• One Raptor fan liked Tyreke Evans for his length and thus his ‘potential defensive ability’, which is outstanding. But potential is a scary word sometimes and it should be noted that he had the slowest feet in the agility test which is a good measurable for defensive potential as well. Can you see now why I’m not a huge fan of these ‘combine stats’?
• A lot has been made of DeRozan’s superior athleticism but if you look at those infamous ‘combine stats’ you’ll see that he has one great mark when compared to the Small Forwards, his max vertical leap (with steps = 38.5″ the same as Chase Budinger). However, because he has short arms he falls to 9th of 11 SF’s in jump reach nearly 5 inches below James Johnson or Damion James. Worse yet, the only player he beat in the footwork and speed tests was 6’11 Austin Daye. And if he had been compared to the SG group, DeRozan would have been dead last in both categories out of 16 guys. His 11.88 agility score would have been .3 tenths of a second slower than 15 other SG’s and 1.4 seconds slower than the fastest SG. Short arms and slow feet, who will he be guarding? Just some food for thought.
• Sam Young participated in a recent NBA group workout and dominated according to sources.
• Another guy I mentioned in the last post was Ohio State big man BJ Mullens. Apparently both he and Austin Daye (Gonzaga) looked great in ‘camp drills’ in Chicago because they didn’t have to play 5-on-5, but both have struggled in workouts against physical defense. Mullens just played in Minnesota and was abused by Luke Neville (an Aussie from the University of Utah) who many say won’t be drafted. And yet Mullens is coming out of school early and a projected lottery pick? On a positive note, the 7’1 260 big man did post a ‘quicker’ time than DeRozan in the agility drill.

Q. Are there any differences from scouting via Video/TV as opposed to live?
A. Pro’s and con’s to both I’m sure. In live situations you definitely get a good feel for the guy physically, what his body is like, his true height and so forth. You can also see his attitude and leadership abilities up close. How he reacts to calls, opposing fans, his coaches, and his teammates. On film, such as Synergy Video, you can see so much footage that you can really get a feel for what the guy does best, what his favorite moves are, and also what some of his weaknesses are because you could potentially watch every shot he took this season. One thing you always have to be careful of, especially in a combine style workout or a closed workout session is falling in love with a prospect based on that one day. See him live as much as possible and then study as much video as you can.

Q. Who will be available at 9? Who will be the best available player at 9?
A. It’s still too early to tell at this point but I think there will be some good players available at this spot. Keep in mind, last year some guys made very late surges into the lottery such as Russell Westbrook climbing to the 4th spot (OKC), Joe Alexander went 8th (Bucks), and Jason Thompson from Rider 12th (Kings). Anthony Randolph went 14th to the Warriors after being rumored in the top 5 then slipping on some boards to late-first. The point being, decisions are still being made and there are a lot of young guys on the draft board as well as the possibility of guys returning to school. We’ll also learn more about the international guys after the upcoming Euro Camp in Treviso, Italy. Remember that Danilo Gallinari shot up to 6th last year to the NY Knicks. This is something we’ll cover more in the coming weeks.

Q. Is Blake Griffin more a Beasley or Duncan?
A. I don’t think he’s like either one to be honest. He’s 2 inches and 12 pounds bigger than Beasley but not as long or skilled (at least now) as Tim Duncan. He is a true Power Forward in the ‘power’ sense. He is strong, explosive, aggressive, and very quick for his size. He is much more athletic than Duncan but will he develop the head for the game that Duncan has? Beasley is more of a face-up guy and I think Griffin will be a solid post-up option as well as a good pick & roll guy and he can run the floor well also. I’m not putting him in the Hall of Fame just yet but he does have some Karl Malone like features.

Hijo de puta!

Q. Who is the next best player in the Draft?
A. The million dollar question, literally. Again, based on results or potential? I like Ricky Rubio and James Harden a lot. I get why people like Hasheem Thabeet with his obvious size and length, but I’m not a huge fan. So if you are the Memphis Grizzlies and you have Mike Conley and OJ Mayo, do you pick Rubio or Harden or trade down? Perhaps they like Thabeet and go that route. I’m a proponent of picking a guy if you feel strongly about him at that spot, if not, trade down and stockpile players and picks. This may the year to do just that.

Q. Who’s your favorite (sentimental) player in the Draft?
A. As you know, I like international players and REALLY like what the Colangelo’s did in Phoenix bringing in Mike D’Antoni, Steve Nash, and that style of play. So needless to say I’m a Rubio fan and look forward to seeing how that situation plays out. You’ve probably read some of the latest rumblings that he’s willing to stay another year in Spain if he’s not a top 3 pick and I think a lot of that is the negotiations taking place with his Agent and Club (Joventut).

From a basketball standpoint I like his leadership skills for such a young guy, he’s very competitive, has good hand skills and vision and is better athletically than he gets credit for. He is a very good defender and has long arms. He does need to work on his shooting and range, but that should develop with time. A lot of guys from that Spanish team have come to the NBA and done well so I see no reason why he wouldn’t do the same.

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Up until the draft, we are going to talk to Chris about college hoops, top prospects, international players, who the Raptors should be targeting, and why NetScouts should be retained by Colangelo to shore up our scouting. Part 1 after the jump:

Q. What do you look for in a player that other scouts may not?
A. I can’t speak for other scouts but one thing I look for is results. What did they get done? A guy may look good in a uniform and run and jump well but never gets a rebound and is a low percentage shooter. I would prefer the guy who has shown he’ll produce for you. The best explanation of this is the NFL Combine and NBA Pre-Draft Camp where guys are tested on their physical abilities. Look at mock drafts before these events and then after and notice how some guy who jumped out of the gym is now a lottery pick but before he wasn’t a lock 1st round pick simply because he is an exciting athlete.

Last year Kevin Love and Michael Beasley were VERY similar in their ‘measurable’ scores such as 3/4 court sprint, cone drill, etc. Prior to that event everyone thought Love was too slow and not athletic enough to play. Another example is a guy like Josh Howard who slid to the 29th pick of the draft after being the 2003 ACC Player of the Year! I guess 28 teams decided to ignore what he did night in and night out in the ACC, “he’s ‘only’ 6’6 (but has very long arms) and not overly strong or quick” so he slid down the draft board. He’s since become an All-Star and played on a good Dallas team who regularly makes the playoffs.

In this years draft there are several guys who fit this label such as Ty Hansbrough, Dajuan Blair, and Sam Young. I’ll be curious to see where they go.

Sam Young - Slept on/ready to step up?

Q. What is the toughest position to scout for?
A. I think the Center position is the toughest because automatically we all love that size. Get the 7’0 franchise center for your organization! Well, not many big men have panned out lately. Although he’s coming off injury and just completed his official Rookie season, Greg Oden is a great example for this question. He has not performed to the ability it appeared he had coming out of Ohio State and a lot of people are starting to question just how good he’ll end up being. So he is replaced by Kosta Koufas at Ohio State, a skilled big man who also comes out early and is selected by the Jazz. He spends his entire year either on the bench or in the NBA Developmental League. Now the third young big man from Ohio State, BJ Mullins, is coming out early and being projected as a late lottery to mid-first round pick. This guy didn’t even start at Ohio State and his numbers pale in comparison to the other two.

Perhaps someone will take him, develop him and he becomes the best of the 3 but I think that is what makes evaluating the Big Men the toughest for scouts.

Q. The Raptors need a 2/3 that can defend and score from the perimeter, who should they be targeting?
A. If the Raptors are looking for a 2/3 that can defend and score from the perimeter, they can go a couple ways. Do they want an Combo-Guard/Shooter type who can also play some point or do they want more size in a Small Forward/Wing type guy who might be able to slide over to the two spot as well? Or will they simply take the ‘Best Available Player’ on the board? Once they make those decisions I think it’s important to look at the option of trading up to get their guy or going 2 for 1 and trading down. If the position is deep or the guy you want may be available later and you can get another value pick or player for the 9th, trade it! The Spurs & Blazers have made a killing doing this type of thing over the past few years.

Specifically they’ll be looking at:

• James Harden, 6’5 218 SG, Arizona State (Lefty, scorer, would probably need to trade up)
• DeMar DeRozen, 6’7 200 SF/SG, USC (only 19 years old, up and down year at USC)
• Chase Budinger, 6’7 218 SF/SG, Arizona (Shooter, good athlete)
• Sam Young, 6’6 215 SF, Pitt (Tough, proven All-Big East performer)
• Gerald Henderson, 6’5 215 SG, Duke (Great Leaper, father was NBA Player)
• Terrance Williams, 6’6 220 SG, Louisville (Multi-Skilled, Best Passer of group)
• Tyreke Evans, 6’5 195 SG, Memphis (only 19 years old, streak shooter)

If they did want to consider a Combo Guard type of player they’d also look at:

• Stephen Curry, 6’3 185 Guard, Davidson (Best Shooter in the draft?)
• Jrue Holiday, 6’4 195 SG/PG, UCLA (18 years old, athletic defender, shaky season at UCLA)

If it were me, with the depth available, they may consider trading down and still coming away with Young, Henderson, or Williams and another player or pick.

Demar DeRozan - A few more years?

Q. Are you suggesting that the drop off from a DeMar DeRozan to a Sam Young (or one of the other guys) isn’t that steep? Is it a matter of that player needing to be in a certain situation to shine, or their ability/skill level that makes you say that?
A. Yes, it depends on how they have guys ranked and who they feel can help them, and if two guys are very close. But the consensus is that one is going very high, drop and take the other and get a second rd. pick or a vet player in the exchange. As an example, I for one, really like Sam Young and think DeRozan (although highly athletic) is a few years away. If I’m a team like the Raptors who went from playoffs to out, I must feel like I’m only a player or two away from challenging again, and can I wait on a young guy to develop? Take for example Courtney Lee of the Magic, he is a guy who played college ball, learned and developed, then found a role with a good team like Orlando shooting open 3′s when teams double Howard and playing tough defense. Sam Young, Terrance Williams, and Gerald Henderson could fill a similar role whereas I think DeRozan needs physical strength and maturity but could eventually be better than all of them. The question is, do the Raptors want to wait for that to happen?

Q. Lakers or Magic?
A. I’m not in the prediction business but I think you have to consider the Lakers the favorite with Kobe and they have home court.

Gasol & Bynum will be key to the LA attack as Howard has had occasional foul issues. If LA can get good defensive play from their role guys like Walton, Ariza, & Vujacic, and Lamar Odom they could wear down the Magic.

I like the Magic, I like how they play and think Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu have been terrific so from a fan perspective that is who I’ll be rooting for.

Smart pick? Lakers in 6.

If you have any questions you want Chris to answer, post them in the comments or drop me an email (rapsfan [at] raptorsrepublic [.] com). We are working on a few posts from now until the draft, so we will do our best to get them all answered.

Chris is active on Twitter, and one of the folks I enjoy following, you can catch him at @chrisdenker and @netscouts.

We’re active too, check us out: @raptorsrepublic @altraps @arsenalist @rapsfan

Bullets Forever

Tier 1: Chris Bosh (16 million through 2010)

Notes: Toronto is Chris Bosh and a bunch of guys I don’t want.  Bosh has the highest value of anyone on this list.  He’s the only guy I’d trade McGee for and the only guy I’d consider giving up one of the Big 3 for. 

Potential offer: Bosh and Kris Humphries for Etan Thomas, JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche, DeShawn Stevenson and #5. 

Big Green Machine

9. Toronto Raptors – Earl Clark, F, Louisville

This was one of the tougher picks to make as I was juggling between Clark, Wayne Ellington and Chase Budinger. For now, Clark gets the nod but in later versions of this mock, don’t be surprised if that changes. Clark is an all-everything forward, just like Shawn Marion, but doesn’t do any one thing very well. Those type of players don’t always flourish in the league, but Clark could prove otherwise.

Star Tribune

3. Hire Sam Mitchell

Mitchell is the perfect hire for this franchise. He evokes memories of the Wolves when they were at their best. He not only has head coaching experience, he was the NBA’s coach of the year, and after he was fired, the team he was coaching, the Toronto Raptors, went south.

He has enough charm to lure fans and free agents, and enough backbone to hold players accountable.

Strotty’s Blog

9. Toronto Raptors:Tyreke Evans, PG, Memphis

Tough pick here for the Raptors as I have them going with value.  Anthony Parker is more than likely leaving the Raptors next year via free agency and Evans is a good replacement.  He can play both guard positions and has outstanding size.  He is also great value right here.

NBA Comparison: Dwyane Wade

Other Options: Earl Clark, Demark DeRozan

Previous Pick: Gerald Henderson at #9

Bleacher Report

9. Toronto Raptors- DeMar DeRozan – SG, USC

The Raptors have been searching for an elite shooting guard ever since Vince Carter left, and in DeRozan, they may finally find him.

DeRozan is extremely athletic, but is still very raw.

His lack of inexperience and low skill-set could keep him out of the top ten, but his natural ability and fluidity could see him here, at the nine spot.

In The Game

The European contribution has certainly been stronger in several drafts before 2009, however this one features the without doubt biggest story of the whole draft, Spain’s teenage sensation Ricky Rubio. Then there’s Brandon Jennings, the first elite high school project to take a sabbatical year in Europe. And there are the Llull’s, Casspi’s and Dasic’s, all of them subjects of intrigue for teams picking early in the 2nd round. Here’s in the game’s look at the prospect from an European viewpoint.

Let’s kick off our NBA Draft coverage by recapping what’s been going on between the 6th and 10th pick this decade. The Raptors are currently slated to draft 8th and even though the team’s playing terrible I don’t see them falling below OKC and upping their odds to draft 5th. Obviously the lottery can change things but for a moment let’s assume everything works out according to the percentages and the Raptors draft where they’re supposed to draft. You’ll find that there’s plenty to be had if a GM has done his scouting. Some of the better players drafted in those spots this decade are D.J Augustin, Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, Andrew Bynum, Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, Chris Kaman, Amare Stoudemire, Andrew Bynum, Caron Butler, Shane Battier and Joe Johnson. Only twice in this time span has the consensus best player been drafted between 6-10 and those two are Roy and Stoudemire.

DraftExpress.com has us currently drafting 6’2″ Wake Forest PG Jeff Teague as the eighth pick. NBADraft.net has us selecting Arizona swingman Chase Budinger. In the weeks to come we’ll be looking at possible selections such as James Harden, Al-Farouq Aminu, Gerald Henderson and my dark horse Evan Turner of Ohio St along with many more. Go ahead and make an early call as to who you think might help the Raptors. My early pick is USC swingman Demar DeRozan. For now, let’s just look back and recap.

2008 Draft
Best Player: Derrick Rose at #1
Notables: #2 Beasley, #3 O.J Mayo, #4 Russell Westbrook, #9 D.J Augustin, #22 Courtney Lee

6 	Danilo Gallinari (SF) 	 New York Knicks 	Olimpia Milano (Italy) 1988
7 	Eric Gordon (SG) 	 Los Angeles Clippers 	Indiana Fr.
8 	Joe Alexander (SF) 	 Milwaukee Bucks 	West Virginia Jr.
9 	D. J. Augustin (PG) 	 Charlotte Bobcats 	Texas So.
10 	Brook Lopez (C) 	 New Jersey Nets 	Stanford So.

2007 Draft
Best Player: Kevin Durant at #2
Notables: #1 Greg Oden, #3 Al Horford, #15 Rodney Stuckey, #24 Rudy Fernandez

6 	Yi Jianlian (PF/SF) 	Milwaukee Bucks 	Guangdong Southern Tigers (China) 1987
7 	Corey Brewer (SF) 	Minnesota Timberwolves 	Florida Jr.
8 	Brandan Wright (PF) 	Charlotte Bobcats 	North Carolina Fr.
9 	Joakim Noah (PF/C) 	Chicago Bulls 		Florida Jr.
10 	Spencer Hawes (C) 	Sacramento Kings 	Washington Fr.

2006 Draft
Best Player: Brandon Roy at #6
Notables: #1 Andrea Bargnani, #2 LaMarcus Aldrdige, #8 Rudy Gay, #21 Rajan Rondo, #47 Paul Millsap

6 	Brandon Roy (SG) 	 Minnesota Timberwolves Washington Sr.
7 	Randy Foye (SG) 	 Boston Celtics 	Villanova Sr.
8 	Rudy Gay (G/F) 	 	 Rockets 		Connecticut So.
9 	Patrick O'Bryant (C) 	 Golden State Warriors 	Bradley So.
10 	Mouhamed Sene (C) 	 Seattle SuperSonics 	RBC Verviers-Pepinster (Belgium) 1986

2005 Draft
Best Player: Chris Paul at #4
Notables: #2 Marvin Williams, #3 Deron Williams, #10 Andrew Bynum, #17 Danny Granger, #37 Ronny Turiaf

6 	Martell Webster (G/F) 	 Portland Trail Blazers Seattle Preparatory School
7 	Charlie Villanueva (PF)  Toronto Raptors 	UConn-So.
8 	Channing Frye (F/C) 	 New York Knicks 	Arizona-Sr.
9 	Ike Diogu (PF) 	 	 Golden State Warriors 	Arizona State-Jr.
10 	Andrew Bynum (C) 	 Los Angeles Lakers 	St. Joseph High School (Metuchen, NJ)HSSr.

2004 Draft
Best Player: Dwight Howard at #1
Notables: #2 Emeka Okafor, #5 Devin Harris, #7 Luol Deng, #20 Jameer Nelson, #26 Kevin Martin, #30 Anderson Varejao

6 	Josh Childress (G/F) 	 Atlanta Hawks 		Stanford
7 	Luol Deng (SF) 	 	 Phoenix Suns 		Duke
8 	Rafael Araújo (C) 	 Toronto Raptors 	BYU
9 	Andre Iguodala (G/F) 	 Philadelphia 76ers 	Arizona
10 	Luke Jackson (SF) 	 Cleveland Cavaliers 	Oregon

2003 Draft
Best Player: Lebron James at #1
Notables: #3 Carmelo Anthony, #4 Chris Bosh, #5 Dwayne Wade, #18 David West, #29 Josh Howard, #47 Mo Williams

6 	Chris Kaman 	(C) 	 Los Angeles Clippers 	Central Michigan
7 	Kirk Hinrich 	(PG) 	 Chicago Bulls 		Kansas
8 	T. J. Ford 	(PG) 	 Milwaukee Bucks 	Texas
9 	Michael Sweetney (PF) 	 New York Knicks 	Georgetown
10 	Jarvis Hayes 	(F/G) 	 Washington Wizards 	Georgia

2002 Draft
Best Player: Amare Stoudemire at #9
Notables: #1 Yao Ming, #10 Caron Butler, #23 Tayshaun Prince, #34 Carlos Boozer, #55 Luis Scola

6 	Dajuan Wagner (G) 	 Cleveland Cavaliers 	Memphis Fr.
7 	Nenê Hilario (PF) 	 New York Knicks 	Vasco da Gama (Brazil) 1982
8 	Chris Wilcox (F/C) 	 Los Angeles Clippers 	Maryland So.
9 	Amare Stoudemire (F/C)	 Phoenix Suns 		Cypress Creek HS (Orlando, Florida) HSSr.
10 	Caron Butler (SF) 	 Miami Heat 		Connecticut So.

2001 Draft
Best Player: Tony Parker at #28
Notables: #3 Pau Gasol, #10 Joe Johnson, #13 Richard Jefferson, #31 Gilbert Arenas, #38 Mehmet Okur

6 	Shane Battier (F/G) 	 Vancouver Grizzlies 	Duke Sr.
7 	Eddie Griffin (F) 	 New Jersey Nets 	Seton Hall Fr.
8 	DeSagana Diop (C) 	 Cleveland Cavaliers 	Oak Hill Academy (Mouth of Wilson, VA) HSSr.
9 	Rodney White (SF) 	 Detroit Pistons 	Charlotte Fr.
10 	Joe Johnson (SG) 	 Boston Celtics 	Arkansas So.

2000 Draft
Best Player: Michael Redd at #43
Notables: #1 Kenyon Martin

6 	DerMarr Johnson (SG/SF)	 Atlanta Hawks 		Cincinnati Fr.
7 	Chris Mihm (C/PF) 	 Chicago Bulls 		Texas Jr.
8 	Jamal Crawford (SG) 	 Cleveland Cavaliers 	Michigan Fr.
9 	Joel Przybilla (C) 	 Houston Rockets 	Minnesota So.
10 	Keyon Dooling (SG) 	 Orlando Magic 		Missouri So.