From a performance analysis perspective, the most problematic part of being a fan probably stems from expectations. Expectations greatly skew our perception of reality, separating us from objectivity. This can quickly muddy the water when looking at sports, where almost everything but the final score lies in subjectivity. Rarely do we watch a game and see what actually happens. Rudy Gay might go 8 for 27 from the field, but if he hits that clutch winning shot we expect him to, all we remember is his 22 points and the 3 that won the game. People watch Amir Johnson and long for a power forward who can shoot, not seeing how the Raptors defense is 8 points per 100 possessions better when he plays. Most people don’t know what good defence looks like because we’ve stopped expecting it from our stars. We filter each player’s performance through the lens of expectation that we’ve set for them in our mind. Speaking liberally for a group of basketball fan(atic)s whose day to day relationship with rationality is a little too Senor Changesque, this can be a problem.

To better explain the point, let’s look at a player who is more in the international media spotlight and use Rajon Rondo as an example. The expectations on Rondo coming in to this year had never been higher. Some were heralding him as a potential MVP candidate, while still more were saying that Rondo had to make this year’s Celtics his team. When he went down with a torn ACL, Rondo’s season was largely viewed as a disappointment. But why? Rondo’s numbers were actually up—almost unilaterally—with notable improvements in rebounds and points scored, and an increase in his shooting percentages from 3, the free throw line and the field. This improved efficiency comes while taking career highs in attempts as well. Rondo improved statistically in almost every single category, especially shooting, which had been his biggest weakness. How then, can the perception of Rondo this year be that he regressed, which ESPN’s recent NBA player rankings say he did, falling ten spots from #12 all the way down to #22, when his numbers improved across the board?

As I see it, there are two reasons for this.

1)   Because the Celtics underperformed when Rondo was playing, and the whole team has notably stepped up their game in his absence. I find it hard to blame Rondo for this. He is not responsible for Jason Terry’s bad defense, Courtney Lee’s cold shooting to start the season or the general lack of urgency and interest that the team was playing with. A veteran leader can try to motivate his team, sure, but on a veteran team to begin with this shouldn’t be a problem. As I see it, the problem was that the Celtics team as a whole was expecting Rondo to do everything for them and be an MVP too. When he went down, the team buckled down, with players like Avery Bradley and Jeff Green stepping up to fill the void and everyone now accepting that without Rondo, they really have to try.

2)   Because we expected Rondo to make a leap, and be a top 5 NBA player and MVP candidate. That’s asking for an awful lot, and Rondo didn’t quite make it there.

Rondo did not have an MVP level season, but he was a better player this year than he was last year by the statistical standards we look to for objectivity. So if he was the 12^th best player in the league last year, how could he have fallen to 22^nd best a year later? It’s possible that ten other players in the league made a giant leap. It’s also possible that Rondo wasn’t really the 12^th best player in the league last year, but we bumped him up a few spots because of who we expected he could/would really be. But what I think is most likely is that despite his improvement, he did not prove himself to meet our expectations of challenging to be the best or near best player in the entire league. As a result of these disappointed expectations, we’re unable to objectively judge the season that he had, and we unfairly punish him as a result.

I’ve found myself guilty of the same impact of expectation in judging players this year when looking at the Raptors. Particularly when giving letter grades to each player to quite literally judge their performances for the post-game quick reactions. It’s unfair, but I acknowledge that I’ve been grading them on a curve based on what my expectations are for them. For example, I’m more than willing to cut an immense amount of slack to Terrence Ross. In part this is because he’s a rookie, but if I’m being perfectly honest with myself, it’s just as much because of the expectations of who I want Terrence Ross to become as a player. So I’m more than willing to go along with anything that will better enable me to believe that Ross is going to be something special. That isn’t to say that I objectively think he will or won’t be a very good NBA player, just that I subconsciously boost what I see from him so I can continue to carry a lofty expectation. On the flip side of that, someone like Kyle Lowry gets the short end of the stick. Instead of getting slack, Lowry gets criticized— and sometimes to a fault. No matter how well he plays, if he isn’t the best player on the floor, which is who we expect him to be, then he is simply a disappointment. That’s not fair. I’m not saying we shouldn’t hold our players with all-star potential to all-star expectations, but let’s at least acknowledge that it isn’t really fair, and that the truth gets lost somewhere in the noise.

Let’s take a look at the core Raptors who have been most affected by our expectations and see if that’s caused a gulf to form between our perception and reality.

Kyle Lowry

Lowry came to the team this summer as the big offseason acquisition that was supposed to solve the franchise-long search for an answer at point guard. That’s not an unreasonable expectation given Lowry’s skill-set and on-ball defensive prowess. It would have been worth noting at the time that Lowry was moved from Memphis to Houston because Mike Conley beat him out for the starting job, and that he wanted out of Houston after Goran Dragic beat him out for his starting job for the Rockets. Both of those things would warrant tempered expectations for a player who, despite his potential, has only been a good starting point guard for a couple of brief stretches in his career. The problem is that Bryan Colangelo traded a lottery pick in this year’s draft for Lowry, and since lottery picks have the potential to be star players, that’s who we expected Lowry to be.

Absent the first two weeks of the year, Lowry has not been a consistent star-level player. But then again, Lowry hasn’t really ever been a consistent star-level player. The perception of Lowry this season, which ballooned hyperbolically after the first two games of the season to MVP candidacy for Torontonians, has been disappointment. There are ways in which this perception has been justified.

Lowry’s numbers are either the same or slightly down from his career best numbers a year ago. Lowry has regressed defensively this season, as his gambling for steals and often unnecessary double-teaming has resulted in wide-open spot-up opportunities and cuts to the basket for his man. The kind of freelancing defense he has played pays dividends for some players in the form of steals and fast breaks. But Lowry’s steals per game are the lowest that they’ve ever been for him as a starter.

Offensively, Lowry’s points per game numbers are slightly down from last year, from 14.3 to 11.8. Now, that decline is attributable in part due to his reduced minutes after losing his starting job when Jose Calderon proved a worthy replacement after Lowry went down with injury. But Lowry has scored 20 or points 10 times this season and has single-handedly taken over individual quarters of a game at least as many times. The question is whether these games are outliers when Lowry exceeds his ability, or if they are the instances in which his focus and effort fall in line and reflect who he could be all of the time.

The conclusion with Lowry is that he has proved with his occasional performance that he is capable of playing up to the expectations we have for him. The lack of patience that we as Raptors fans have for him to meet those expectations is the result of the trade that brought him here and our long standing desire for a quality starting point guard and potential all star. While that might not be fair, the reality is that Lowry is going to have accept that those expectations will not go away as long as he is here in Toronto.

DeMar DeRozan

I’ve been harsh on DeMar over the years. My reasoning has been simple: I expect a starting NBA shooting guard to be better than 22% from 3. My expectations aside, the real problem for DeMar is that absent of a real star, the team has billed him as their franchise player and organized their offence around him pretty much ever since the departure of Chris Bosh. I can’t imagine that DeMar ever requested that. During that time span, DeMar’s numbers have not been efficient and have not even approached franchise player level. With DeMar getting top line billing, his limitations were under a magnifying glass. DeMar is a pure slasher with a career assist rate that’s identical to Michael Beasley’s—a player who goes in to anaphylactic shock upon passing the ball. As long as DeMar was expected to wear the mantle of franchise player, which fairly or unfairly is inherited by whomever the best player on a team is, he was going to disappoint. Even more importantly, that pressure really looked like it was wearing on him.

Expectations changed in a hurry for DeMar this season. What began with the addition of Kyle Lowry to start the season was completed with the Rudy Gay trade. With Lowry, Gay and two promising rookie players, the weight of the franchise’s future and their nightly scoring has been removed from DeRozan’s shoulders. The benefit of these reduced expectations has been two-fold for DeMar. On the court, he’s played a lot looser. Without the expectation of having to be the one to create a shot or carry the load, he’s settled for his shaky jump shot a lot less, either moving the ball along or forcing his way to the rim, where he has shot an efficient 64% and gotten to the line at a top 5 rate over the last two months.

In terms of expectations, DeRozan’s numbers were a let down when we expected him to lead the team. But, when he is the third or even fourth (given Valanciunas’ development) most important player on the team, his 4 rebounds and 17 points a game are all of a sudden exceeding expectations and casting a complacent shadow over the blights in his game. Perhaps the route to happiness really is through lowered expectations.

Expectations play a huge role in how we interpret the performances and value of who we watch on the court. It doesn’t matter whether you’re Aaron Gray or Lebron James. The narrative of Lebron’s entire career has been dominated by the impact of expectations. We’ve always acknowledged his ability. We’ve been in awe of his physical size, power and speed and we’ve watched his highlights over and over again in amazement. But this is the first year when both we as the sports media and we as basketball fans as a whole have stepped back and celebrated Lebron James. For the first time in his entire basketball career, Lebron is no longer saddled by expectations. We don’t argue about whether he chokes in crunch time, whether he’s an alpha dog or whether or not he’s in the same class as Jordan, Magic and Kareem. We just ask each other if you’ve seen his numbers or demand to rewind and re-watch what he just did. Instead of expecting, we simply appreciate. Lebron has gone from this, to this.

Over the next little while, I’ll continue to run down the Raptors roster and talk about how expectations have affected our feelings about their game, and where that may have led us astray. Expectations are bound to be a thorn in Kyle Lowry’s side for some time to come. Hopefully that drives him towards greatness. For DeMar DeRozan, the burden of expectations has taken a quick turn from archenemy to staunch ally. And for us fans, expectations will turn in to argument and obsession all summer long as we diagnose the season that was and prognosticate the upcoming season that should be.

-Andrew Thompson

@Marmaladejacko

Once upon a time, the Association was flooded with quality shooting guards. Indeed, the sheer rich amount of off-guards led many teams to build their franchises around them. Think of the Orlando Magic with Tracy McGrady, the Philadelphia 76ers with Allen Iverson or even the Toronto Raptors with Vince Carter.

But that is officially a thing of the past.

The NBA is now the home of three great 2-guards, maybe four if we stretch it: Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, James Harden and Manu Ginobili (borderline selection).

The remaining guys that play the position are either one-dimensional or inconsistent players with potential. In truth, there’s nothing wrong with being a decent shooting guard, but a great one can take you places when flanked alongside a solid frontcourt.

This is where DeRozan’s potential comes in.

He is a talented and athletic player with a streaky jump shot. When lanes open up and he puts his head down in direction of the rim, good things tend to happen.

Mind you, the personnel coupled with the offensive schemes the Raptors use fail to consistently highlight his skills.

The Raptors are a bottom five 3-point shooting team. Because Toronto lacks shooters, it creates situations where the paint is often condensed by opposing defenses.

Consequently, DeRozan typically catches the ball on the wing and sees nothing but layers of defense. That partly explains why he spends a lot of time floating out on the perimeter.

Dwane Casey’s solution — a smart one — is to have his starting shooting guard catch the ball on the move. By receiving the ball already going towards the basket, it relieves him off the pressure of creating off the dribble and making decisions when swarmed.

The one problem with the strategy: opponents know it. Hence, they pack the paint, which in turn forces DeRozan to catch and shoot. Per Synergy Sports, the Raps’ 2-guard is converting 41.6 percent of his shots coming off screens.

For the sake of context, have a quick look at the conversion rate of other notable players at his position:

DeRozan’s shooting percentage in this scenario is more than adequate in comparison to the league’s greats. The one caveat though: these four players rarely use off-ball screens for scores. In fact, for the most part, it’s the least used technique they use to generate shots per Synergy Sports.

In the case of DeRozan though, 16.2 percent of his field goal attempts stem from him coming off screens. That’s the second highest percentage of plays he uses to create shots.

Thus, several of his field goal attempts are being put up with defenders in his grill.

In other words, Toronto is misusing him.

Andrea Bargnani was supposed to help mitigate this issue. Camping him on the opposite side of the court would help stretch out the defense and remove one big man from the paint.

In addition, DeRozan could even curl off a Bargnani screen and when his defender would step up to thwart the guard, DeMar would be afforded with the possibility of dishing to Bargs for an open jumper.

Mind you, Il Mago’s lost shooting touch, coupled with his injury have certainly complicated matters for the offense.

Put it all together and DeMar DeRozan has taken the second most amount of midrange jumpers in the league this season per NBA.com’s advanced stats tool. For a player with his athleticism, that’s a startling revelation.

The best 2-guards in the league are exceptional pick-and-roll players. They break down defenders off the bounce for scores and also find open teammates on the move.

The Toronto highflyer is not yet a great ball-handler or passer, so putting him in those situations would not benefit him or the Raptors.

In the offseason, Toronto would be best served by having the 23-year old work on these facets. It would certainly give the offense a new dimension and make the off-guard a bigger threat next season.

In terms of Casey’s concepts, tweaking them might be in order. DeRozan spends a lot of time on the weak side of the court looking like a Blue Jays outfielder whenever the Raptors run a play for another player.

It might behoove Toronto to have him set picks or come off screens even on the opposite side of the action for the sake of keeping defenders occupied. Also, he might even get free by doing so.

With Rudy Gay now a member of the team, one can only wonder if Casey will overhaul his philosophy and play an up-tempo offense. Between the starting wing players, Kyle Lowry and Terrence Ross, it might just be the best route for the unit.

DeRozan is part of the team’s future, perhaps the offense should occasionally reflect that.

Statistical support provided by NBA.com.

The Toronto Raptors gave the Washington Wizards the business last night.

Armed with a strong rebounding game and a relentless interior attack, Toronto completely exploited Washington inside the paint.

The box score reads the Raps scored a mere 32 points in the paint but don’t let that fool you.

Jonas Valanciunas had a statement game. His production alone on this night warranted him getting more touches not only in the contest but possibly for the remainder of the season.

[Also read Reaction: Wizards 78, Raptors 88]

He isn’t always the most aesthetic looking player, but he gets the job done. According to Synergy Sports, the big man came into last night’s game converting 49.4 percent of his shots in post up situations.

Obviously, context is important in this setting. He doesn’t necessarily score that well against every opposing big man, but last night was one of those nights. Valanciunas owned Emeka Okafor and Nene.

He had a few post ups as well as a couple of drives — always to his right! — that allowed him to score.

But JV’s biggest contribution last night on offense was his toughness. Every time he was given an open shot in the paint, he pump faked himself (took him a few seconds to realize how open he was) and then used the landscape at his disposal to attack the basket.

Routinely he was met with resistance, but he kept drawing whistles. His aggressive and physical play resulted in a 16-of-18 free throw shooting night.

Valanciunas’ scoring in the half-court helped the Raptors overcome a sloppy game. The majority of their 15 turnovers on this night were unforced. On a few occasions, players tried threading the needle with passes and instead coughed up the ball.

DeMar DeRozan was on his game in this contest. Dwane Casey’s regular sets were favorable for Toronto’s starting 2-guard on this evening.

One of the Raptors’ pet plays has DeRozan curling off a screen on the left side of the floor for an open jumper. If the big man defending the action on DeRozan steps out to contest his jumper, the shooting guard can essentially drive past him and get into the paint.

DeMar mixed up his game by attacking the paint and nailing his midrange jumpers. According to Hoopdata, DeRozan converted 6-of-12 shots from 16-to-23 feet against the Wizards. He also got himself to the basket and into the paint where he put pressure on Washington.

DeMar DeRozan shot cart against Washington Wizards.

His final tall by night’s end was 25 points.

Valanciunas and DeRozan did a great job of taking whatever Washington offered them in this contest. But it can also be said that Toronto removed whatever available options the Wiz had, especially in the second half.

Indeed, Casey’s group held the Wizards to 28 points on 7-for-35 shooting from the floor in the final two quarters of the game. They kept John Wall out on the perimeter and the few times he wandered into the paint, he was met with resistance.

He managed 12 points in the second half, but was 3-for-11 from the field.

With the team hitting the road for their three next games, winning at home prior to leaving the friendly confines of Toronto is always a good thing.

Certain events make you perk up and take notice at the goings-on of a winning team. New York, a team flush with talent, who found a gem keeping the pine warm, with quality talent from 1 through 10, who only needed to change the voice on the bench to get back to playing basketball worthy of a playoff team are relevant for the second time in the same season.

After running D’Antoni out of town, Carmelo has decided (or rather was forced) to play with pride and conviction; not taking any possessions off. Not a great deal has changed with Woodson taking the helm, except the prima-donna winning the power struggle and realizing there are no more excuses; ladies and gentlemen, I present you the Knicks.

After getting their assess handed to them on Wednesday, the Raptors have a chance at restitution on their home-court to bring the season series even at two a piece.

Areas of focus:

• Need to be aggressive defending that high pick-and-roll against Lin and Stoudemire. Calderon, who played a staggering 40 minutes on his first game back from injury, is going to have a hell of a time keeping Lin under wraps. With Bayless potentially out (or playing injured), he’s going to be called on for heavy minutes again, and needs to really make Lin work for everything. He’s going to need to fight through screens aggressively, and hope he gets some help on the hedge from Bargnani or Gray (or Amir or Davis). He can get some back on offense, by forcing boy wonder to contend and play on his heals.
• Defensive rotations need to be tight, and smooth. Far too often, when Stoudemire went at Bargnani, the other big would rotate, and no one would pick up Chandler who licked his lips at being open under the rim.
• The Knicks are 10 deep, meaning they have 5-guys who can come in, and change the complexion of the game; especially on the wing where the Raptors haven’t been so weak in recent memory. Again, if Bayless is playing, it changes things for the Raptors, but a bench rotation of Forbes, Kleiza and Butler makes me hate basketball something fierce.
• Q: You know what I loved about DeRozan on Wednesday against the Bulls? A: He curled off that high screen, caught the pass, and kept going to the rack; on multiple plays. This is the kind of Rip Hamilton basketball I love seeing from shooting guards. His 17 against the Knicks was so utterly ineffectual, it has Arse dropping giving his life-sized DeRozan blowup doll the camel clutch in rage. Lets see him attack the Knick defense in the paint more than five-times tonight.
• Protect the glass; I mean seriously. We have four forwards, who are tall, mobile and athletic (Gray not so much), and the Knicks dominated the offensive glass 16-4. For those who were counting, that translated in exactly 12 more possession…Raptors lost by 19, you do the math.
• Where the hell is Bargnani? I realize he missed a ton of games via injury, but in the eight games since his return, he’s averaging 12.5pts 4.8rebs 2.1ast on 33.7% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. This is unacceptable, and leads me to believe that he’s either not fully recovered from his injury, or has reverted to his limp noodle ways.

The Knicks are 5.5 point favourites tonight, and if Bayless isn’t ready to go, it’s going to take a full-team, full-48 effort to defend home court. Since those types of efforts have been few and far between, my monies on New York to put this away by the 4th; Knicks by 13.

Photo Credit: Chris Chambers/Getty Images

Let’s go back to late in the first quarter in Charlotte. This is before the disastrous 38-14 third quarter in which Toronto committed 13 fouls, 10 turnovers and let Charlotte shoot 80 percent. It’s before Jerryd Bayless scored 14 in the final frame to make a game of it. 44 seconds left in the first, the Raptors are up by seven. On a set play, Ed Davis receives a pass from Gary Forbes at the left elbow. DeMar DeRozan gets a step on Reggie Williams, cutting baseline from the corner, and it’s over. Bounce pass, hammer dunk.

On the Toronto broadcast, Leo Rautins raved about DeRozan’s timing. While it looked like an easy play (and, given that Bismack Biyombo was occupied with Amir Johnson at the right elbow, the finish certainly was easy), making reads and cuts is just as important as having the necessary skills to score in the NBA.

Take Gerald Green, who is producing for an Avery Johnson team that runs a play almost every time down the court — he always had that talent, but struggled with the mental part of the game.

Take Chris Paul, who has made the Clippers into a top-five offensive team in part because he has incredible court vision and is an extremely efficient scorer himself. He also does the little things, like teaching DeAndre Jordan to count to two before rolling to the basket.

I jumped when DeRozan smashed it because it was a sweet play and I love those kind of assists from big men. It was also unexpected. Davis isn’t selfish, nor a black hole, but he only has 38 assists on the year and is almost never asked to be a playmaker. His four assists last night were a career high. No one questions Davis’ talent; his finishing ability and his shotblocking made you think he was a great NBA prospect from day one at UNC. Same goes for DeRozan — he was a project when drafted in 2009, yet seemed like the obvious choice at No. 9 for a team in need of a shooting guard. The question is if they can harness this talent, work effectively with the rest of Toronto’s core, and make the Raptors a serious threat two or three years from now.

For some, Davis and DeRozan haven’t lived up to expectations this season. Their numbers are down, even factoring in the uptick in DeRozan’s scoring over the past six weeks. But they’re not supposed to be finished products yet, so we shouldn’t be talking about them with doom and gloom. Development takes time. Adjusting to a new system takes time. Doing so with your star on the bench most of the time doesn’t help. Part of getting better is playing smarter and building chemistry. If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic, they’re there below the surface. It’s alright if it takes a fancy dunk to get your attention.

Ryan Degama, from Celtics Hub, James Herbert and AltRaps answered three of my burning questions:

Read an interesting trade scenario on ESPN (Insider required) with Garnett going to Denver for Afflalo, Miller and Mozgov; good trade personally. Why hasn’t Ainge began breaking up the big three, and getting picks/prospects for them while he can?

Ryan: There are a few reasons nothing has happened yet. Part of it is that teams are still evaluating what they need and part of it is that you nail the expected return: picks and prospects. That’s a serious bounty and Boston’s early performance has done little to strengthen Ainge’s negotiating position. Now that Paul Pierce has returned to all-star form, Ainge has more to work with, but there’s no guarantee he’ll get an offer he considers palatable. It’s possible Boston will ride out the season as is.

Alt: I’ve hated Ainge my whole life. Hated him as a Blue Jay and as soon as he became a Celtic, well, it was all over. So, in short, he hasn’t moved on anything because he can’t cross a street without calling someone for help. Much like when we traded Carter, Danny knows that what he gets in return for any of these guys will show what kind of a gunslinger he is. The fact he was willing to part with Rondo before any of these guys tells you something. He will make a move closer to the deadline, especially as the Sixers get further and further ahead of them. You’ll see a desperate perennial playoff team give up some good picks and current talent for one of the two. Pierce is untouchable.

James: Ainge has directly said that he would break this team up if he received a good enough offer. Who’s going after these guys, though? You’re only taking one of them if you’re a contender, and what contender has spare young players that would actually help the Celtics? Maybe some team would like to shed salary for Garnett’s $21 million expiring contract, but would Boston want a bunch of overpaid guys? Would Ainge want Joe Johnson? I doubt it.

Can the Celtics, as presently constructed, still win a championship?

Ryan: Their offense is on the wrong side of mediocre and their rebounding is bottom third in the league. Those two factors guarantee an early round exit come playoff time. Add the team’s collective age and inclination to injury and it’s all over unless you really want to delve deep into “everything goes right” scenarios. Those haven’t been hallmarks of the last few years in Boston.

Alt: If they were able to pull out series wins in 4-5 games, yes. They would get a breather between sets (presumably) and it gives their coaching staff time to get them working on the possible next opponent. Give that time to an Allen, a Garnett, a Rondo, then you have a shot. The real hitch is beating the West in the final. Good luck with that.

James: Can they? Yeah. In the same way that Portland or Denver can if a lot of things go their way. The Celtics are not contenders, barring a major injury elsewhere. They’ll be better come playoff time and we shouldn’t forget how bad they looked during some parts of 2009-2010 before making it to the Finals, but as constructed they are not in the same class as Miami, Chicago, and Oklahoma City.

Will it be a bar fight tonight?

Ryan: Feels like it could be a rough one after Kleiza smacked down Rondo last time. But I don’t think it will be a close one if the Celtics are interested in playing defense (sometimes they’re not) and moving the ball on offense, like they did against the Cavs last night.

Alt: Casey has these guys playing scrappy. You throw Scarborough out there to lay some shoulders and I envision some chippiness. If it’s a close game you know they will zero in on Jose’s touchiness and, especially without Andrea playing cold hand Luke, he could fall for it. That’s okay, though…we have Kleiza who has taken the role of the NBA’s version of a viper.

James: I just watched the Raptors get blown out by the Hawks at home and it wasn’t for a lack of effort. They’ll fight, but without Bargnani they’re going to struggle to put points up against this Boston defense. It all depends on if Toronto can contain Pierce, the Celtics’ primary creator in the absence of Rajon Rondo — if it’s a blowout, it’s not a bar fight.

Injuries

Toronto
Bargnani – Calf, out indefinitely

Boston
Rondo – Wrist, day-to-day
Dooling – Hip, day-to-day
O’Neal – Knee, day-to-day

Match-ups

Point Guard
I’m really liking the effort Bayless has been putting up since his return from injury; what helps most is he’s protecting the ball much better. Calderon’s been consistent. I realize he’s been starting at the 2 the last two games, but I just don’t see DeRozan covering Paul Pierce and James Johnson taking on Kevin Garnett. So with Rondo out (probably out), Bayless will be backing up Calderon and playing some shooting guard in relief of DeRozan while Colangelo sorts out a trade for Barbosa.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
I took a lot of heat when I said DeRozan’s game against the Nets wasn’t that great (especially getting to the foul line 16 times against a D-league level team). When you such dramatic swings from game-to-game, you don’t get love from this corner of the interwebs when you make a pretty against a weak-ass team. Head-to-head against Ray Allen, DeRozan’s been mediocre for a few seasons, I’m not saying Ray-Ray is going to drop 30, but he will do 15-20; mix that with DeRozan’s love affair with the jumper and Boston’s defensive resurgence (4th in defensive efficiency)…it’s going to be a long night for the prodigal son.
Edge: Celtics

Small Forward
Paul Pierce may be old, but his game was never dependant on his athleticism; it’s that slow-motion first step that’s killer. JJ and Kleiza have been playing nice, but if their combined production matches Pierce’s, I’ll be surprised.
Edge: Celtics

Power Forward
I’d like to see Amir or Magloire nail Garnett in the face with an elbow tonight, then have Calderon bark in his ear about it. This would be a win for me.
Edge: Celtics

Center
All my match-up assumptions were based on the Raptors not going small ball because of the bad mis-matches at the 2 and 3 if they do. Maybe they go that route, in which case half of what I’ll be watching the Chicago/Philly game (I’ll be watching that game anyways, Love D-Rose), but maybe they try and match-up a bit smarter, and not let Allen and Pierce take it easy on the bench in the 2nd half because they built up a 20 point 1st half lead.
Edge: Even, but who really cares

Keys to the Game

• Ball movement: the Celtics are a damn good defensive team, but they are old. The Raptors need to make them work on the defensive end of the court and really attack the paint; Garnett and O’Neal aren’t what they used to be. Don’t settle for jumpers!
• Tight defensive rotations: with Rondo out, the Celtics don’t have a guy who can consistently break down the defense and create for the rest of the team. Can’t give Allen and Pierce open looks from the perimeter (the Raptors have done a great job of allowing this this season) or they will kill us; I can’t stress this enough.
• Get into Garnett’s head: this wont win us the game, but I want to see someone mess the SOB a bit…hate him…

The Line

There’s no line at time of publishing, but I’ll go ahead and put a line in the sand: Celtics  by 13.

The Raptors finally broke out of their 0-for-showing with Bargnani injured this season, and got a win with the franchise on the sidelines. Individual plays and levels of effort aside, you have to appreciate this one; the Raptors never lost a quarter, and dictated the flow and tempo throughout. In fact, had it not been for early solid free-throw shooting in the first half, and some above average offensive rebounding by the Nets, this would have been one of those games where a Nets blogger’s post-game would have been a picture of tightly curled turd on the Nets logo.

An aside to the win, the Raptors managed 94 points without Bargnani and Barbosa. Granted some of that has to do with Jersey’s lack of…everything, but the Raptors did as good a good as job as possible with defensive rotations and assignments that you could expect. I mean, Deron Williams dropped 24 points, but it took him 20 shots (3-10 3FG), and some heroic off the ball movement to get good looks at the rim.

Case in point, in the 2nd quarter, Williams started at the top of the arc, ran around the low block, brushed past two low screens, came around to the top of the arc, caught and shot the ball with Bayless on his ass. He hit the three (without as much space as you’d think), but the point is he wasn’t blowing by pylons to get his baskets. He’s the type of player that can make those kind of plays happen, the rest of the team couldn’t and caved to the Raptor defense.

I like Calderon and Bayless starting in the back-court together. As much as Bayless offends me with his decision making, when he doesn’t have to be the floor general, he makes things happen. He also takes pressure off Jose to cover the likes of Deron Williams. I’d like to explore a lineup of Calderon, Bayless, JJ, Bargnani and Amir with DeRozan, Kleiza and Davis as the first three off the bench for a few games. Bayless attacks the paint off the bounce as much as possible, something DeRozan and his new-found love for the jumper should be doing. It gives a bit more balance, which takes me to DeMar…

…I wasn’t that impressed with DeRozan’s game last night. Sure, 27pts on 8-12FG 11-16FT looks great on the boxscore, but it didn’t sit right with me. Three times in the first half, DeRozan pulled up on the break and popped (missed) a jumper when he could have made a move to the basket and either converted or drew a foul. His 27 should have been at least 30. The second problem I had was 17 of 27 came in the second half with the Nets thinking about dinner and watching Californication.

The saving grace of his second half “dominance” was that he got to the line 12 times and hit 9 of them. Had they all been jumpers, I guarantee we would have been watching him shoot jumpers at an even more alarming rate for the rest of the season. Not sure if it’s just me or is his development looking a bit like VC’s? He doesn’t have the same finish Carter had at this stage of his career, but we watched VC go from a guy who wanted to break the backboard, to the POS jump shooter he became. I’m way to lazy to pull stats on this (maybe Liston can put something for statophile), but I’ve noticed myself sighing with more regularity that he’s shooting instead of driving. I can live with the shooting if it continues to improve, but only if he gets to the line more; 4 times a game is half of what of what he should be doing.

Photo Credit: James Herbert via Twitter

Obviously others chipped in and contributed…just that the headline was perfect and I didn’t want to change it: Calderon moved the ball around aside from a couple retarded passes, but the defense wasn’t there; Barbosa did DeRozan’s job and scored the ball; Kleiza did Amir’s and Davis’ job and grabbed rebounds off the bench; and James Johnson’s double-double was so natural it makes you want to choke him out on nights he puts up crap.

I have nothing positive to say about this game. It took 42 minutes from Bargnani, after missing six games, to win this one. 42 MINUTES! You have to assume he still isn’t 100% since that’s how the pro’s work. Amir and Ed played so terrible that Casey couldn’t spare more than 6 minutes at the power forward. Think about what that means for a minute; guys that were considered core members of the future could only give an injured man, who missed six straight games with injury, 6 minutes of relief against the one of the few teams in the league I wouldn’t trade the Raptors straight up for.

That last notion is a conversation I’ve been having with a lot of folks over the last few days: if you were to compare the Raptors to every other team in the league as currently constructed, you’d be hard-pressed not to like the other squad*. In this instance, the Suns have the best player of the two teams, Steve Nash, but he’s old and dreaming of finishing his career in New York. If he still had a year or two left on his contract, you could make the case that it would be better to rebuild around him…I really want to know what people think of this, put it in the comments.

As for Arse’s predictions:

Margin after first: -8 -> 10
Margin at halftime: -4 -> 4
Margin at end of third: -16 -> 8
Final score margin: -9 -> 3
Best Raptor: James Johnson -> Would have been if Bargnani wasn’t there
Worst Raptor: Ed Davis -> Yup, see Roll Call
Shots of Suns cheerleaders: 6 -> I counted 7 on LPBB
DeMar DeRozan three attempts: 4 -> 0, thank jah
Amir Johnson fouls: 5 -> 3, but didn’t play enough to get there
Barbosa final point tally: 18 -> 19
Rasual Butler moments of retardedness: 3 -> 2
Dwayne Casey yelling “go go go”: 2 -> No idea, I wont lie and say 6+
Jose Calderon assists: 8 -> 11

One thing I did like was the starting lineup, not that they played very long together, but Gray and Bargnani lining up together is more formidable than anything else we can muster. Next step is to insert Barbosa into the starting five, and make DeRozan the first wing off the bench; could be what he needs…in Utah tonight, pre-game up soon.

* Of the ten worst teams in the league, a case could be made that only Charlotte and Detroit are worse off than the Raptors

Photo Credit: Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

I’ve watched more Clippers games this seasons than the rest of my life combined; they almost play my perfect brand of basketball…Blake needs to take it to the rack more and they’d be perfect.

Had a few words with Jovan Buha from the Clippers Blog:

Knowing what you know now, did the Clippers pay too high a price for Paul?

No. I look at it this way — are the Clippers set up better now or in the future after the trade? I say both. There’s no way L.A. would be consistently beating elite teams with last year’s squad and simply the additions of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups. In the future, with time to gel and additions through free agency and trades, they’re only going to get better. If the last four games have proven anything, Paul is the Clippers’ offensive maestro and the difference-maker from being a playoff team and being a contender.

Is it a big problem that Blake likes to shoot long jumpers more than he attacks the rim like a rabid animal off the high screen?

Yes, it’s a huge problem. Blake’s jumper, while improved, is far from a proven product. His outside shooting efficiency is actually down from 33 percent to 31 percent this year but that’s more of a reflection of his 4.8 attempts per game (too high and as a result, lowers his percentage out there). When he attacks the rim, he’s much, much better (71.0 percent shooting at the rim). A pick-and-roll with Paul is much more efficient if Griffin rolls towards rim destruction.

Is Neil Olshey executive of the year?

Yes, thus far it appears Neil Olshey should be the executive of the year. He turned a laughingstock franchise into a fringe contender with the Chris Paul trade and signings of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups (for $2,000,032!). Who else made better moves this offseason?

Injuries

Toronto
Andrea Bargnani – Calf, should play
Jerryd Bayless – game-time decision, should play

Los Angeles
Chris Paul – Hamstring, game-time decision
Caron Butler – Knee, questionable

Match-ups

Point Guard
Paul is sick. Mo Williams is a solid back-up. Bledsoe is better than any back-up we got. And Chauncey can make it happen if he gets the call. That’s about all she wrote.
Edge: Clippers

Shooting Guard
At least DeMar showed up for the Blazers game on Friday; it took him 21 shots to get 22 points, but at least he got to the line 10 times. He hasn’t stepped up in Bargnani’s absence, but neither has anyone else really. While Billups wont break him down off the bounce, he will make him pay for every inch of open space DeRozan gives him and play tight defense on our boy.
Edge: Clippers

Small Forward
It’s going to be frustrating to watch a juicy, out of shape Caron Butler make things happen against our defense, but that’s exactly what’s going  down this afternoon. If Caron doesn’t go, the Raptors small forwards are actually better than anything the Clippers have.
Edge: Clippers

Power Forward
Bargnani’s supposed to play,  but he’s been sitting for over a week now and wont be crisp. There isn’t a whole he can do to control Griffin if he gets it in his head, but if he isn’t too much out of game shape, he can make things difficult on the phenom. Expect too see a lot of dunks and offensive rebound-put-backs tonight from the Clips, though.
Edge: Clippers

Center
Amir Johnson is a poor mans DeAndre Jordan. You could make the case that Amir has better offensive weapons, but what he does better on defense, Jordan more than makes up for on defense. The Raptors have more depth here, but Jordan is a work horse; it might even out since DeAndre doesn’t do enough outside of blocking shots and dunking (work with me here, I couldn’t give them a clean sweep).
Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

1. Let Blake shoot the ball every time he gets it; it’s frustrating to watch, but he loves the jumper, and shouldn’t be a go-to thing for him. Off the high pick-n-roll, let the guy roll and force Paul create some genius on every possession.
2. Control the boards; outside of Griffin and Paul, the rest of the team is pretty average to mediocre.
3. Make the Clippers work defensively; Chris Paul is injured and limping, Jordan can be bated with a pump-fake and Blake isn’t making all defensive team (although he can make highlight blocks). The Clippers are going to score, nothing the Raptors can do to stop that, but if we make them work a little, hopefully the early start time will mess with them

The Line

The Clippers are 9.5 point favourites at home with an over/under of 184.5; I’m setting the over/under of Blake and Jordan dunking at 10. The Clippers dropped a heart breaker against the Timberwolves on Friday, and should be plenty pissed off today. If Bargnani is playing, and isn’t too rusty, the Raptors should cover. It’s starting to get more serious than just covering games and looking at the bright-side of things, though. The Raptors have dropped 7 in a row, and could easily drop the next 5 on the road. Have to make a stand sometime, yea?