I thought that Indiana game was a bit closer than it seemed; the Pacers hit every single crucial shot they had, and still only won by 5. You have to figure if Amir caught one of the two passes in the key that he missed (either would have finished in a dunk), the Raptors made a stop down the stretch, or the Pacers missed on of the many shots they shouldn’t have hit, the Raps could be 2-0 right now. That’s my glass is half-full moment, down to business.

The defending champs host the Raptors for what will be their 4th game in 6 nights; on the second night of a back-to-back having played the Thunder in Oklahoma. That’s a lot of wear and tear for an aging team who is 0-3 to start the season. That said, these are the defending champs with a war-tested lineup; can’t take them lightly.

I had a chance to talk with Ian Levy and Rob Mahoney of The Two Man Game about the Mavs:

True or False: Cuban and Nelson don’t get enough credit for the teams they’ve been fielding for the last decade.

Ian I think they get the right amount of credit. Cuban is known for be willing to spend and for letting the basketball people make the decisions. Nelson has shown a great understanding of timing, not just buying low and selling high, but knowing when the structure of the team needs to go in a different direction.

Rob True. I don’t want to instill the Mavericks with more of a victim complex than they already have (sorry, Shawn Marion — I meant to say “World Champion Mavericks,”), but building and maintaining a contender for more than a decade is no small feat. Dallas may only have one title to show for all of Cuban and Nelson’s hard work, but they played some incredible basketball for 11 straight seasons. That’s damn impressive.

The Mavs retooled in the off-season, replacing Chandler w/ Odom, signing VC and Delonte; without jeopardizing their 2012 cap situation I must add. I look up and down this roster and feel this team is better than the one that won the championship last year; thoughts?

Ian The team that won the championship last season was not the same team they had on paper, it was a beautiful origami construction, using that paper as a raw material. These first two losses for the Mavericks are a reminder that they need to take what they have and make it into something much greater.

Rob I’d give Lamar Odom a slight edge over Tyson Chandler in whatever universal comparison of basketball players I can muster, Vince Carter is fairly comparable to Caron Butler (if you count him in your estimations of the championship team), and Delonte West is better than J.J. Barea. But as a team? I’d say this roster is a bit inferior; Chandler, Barea, and even DeShawn Stevenson were perfect fits for this particular team, while the new pieces contribute to a less complete overall product.

This season could finally be the one that Jason Kidd’s body says “enough’s enough”? With Dirk potentially having a couple more elite seasons in him in the front court, wouldn’t the priority heading into the summer be signing Deron Williams as a free agent target?

Ian Absolutely, but it sounds a lot like one of those “hometown loyalty” pipe-dreams. The Mavericks need to be proactive in building a roster for the future. Adding a player of Williams’ caliber would be tremendous, but the possibility seems too tenuous to be the centerpiece of a plan.

Rob Both are possibilities; Kidd’s drop-off could come without warning, and Dallas has very real interest in acquiring Williams. But it’s one strategy, not the strategy. The Mavs aren’t banking on age-old ties to a high school to bring in Williams, just as they won’t be banking on an age-old point guard to guide them into the next era. Nelson and Cuban are staying flexible, being mindful of their spending, and playing it by ear. They obviously have some tentative plans in place, but overall their outlook is more of a flow chart than an agenda.

Call the game

Ian My apologies to the Raptors fans but I think the Mavericks get on track with a win tonight.

Rob I’ll say Dallas wins a tight one. The Mavs looked much improved against the Thunder on Thursday night, and while they’re sure to be weary after their down-to-the-wire loss, I see them building on their performance in Friday’s game. They’ll have their hands full with a more active Raptors team, but I think the Mavs get it done for their first win of the season.

Match-Ups

Point Guard
I know we’re just two games into the season, but the Raptors are 8th in defense. Don’t rip me a new one, I realize it’s ony two games, but when the hell have we ever been top 10 in defense? Some of that starts with Calderon on the perimeter not doing his clapping hands routine. The one thing that has me concerned about Kidd after watching Paul George have all the time in the world the other night from beyond the arc, is Kidd being put in the same spot; otherwise, keeping him under control shouldn’t be  a mission for Calderon (and Bayless who is my 2nd least favourite Raptor after Magloire).
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
DeRozan played ball all summer, is young, in great shape, a gym rat…yet still has been having a tough time with catching a rhythm early in games. Had it not been for an epic 2nd half against the Pacers, everyone would be pretty ‘meh’ on the kid right now. That said, his shot has looked really good this year. Barbosa has given us exactly what we’ve expected from the get-go (stayed fresh in Brazil while the rest of the league played XBOX and such). The Mavs have two guys over 34 (Terry/Carter) and a head case (West). So while Carter’s best days are behind him, Terry still has some gas in the tank, and has been playing well so far. West is the only one of the lot who plays any defense, but I have a suspicion the Mavs will give the Raptors just enough wiggle room that they will find their offensive stride.
Edge: Mavericks

Small Forward
James Johnson can play defense, rebound, and dunk in transition, and…that’s about it. He should never be allowed to shoot another jumper or put the ball on the floor, again. That said, he’s loads better than Weems. Marion on the other hand hasn’t been to the free throw line yet this season. This troubles me, especially considering he still insists on shooting 3s. Regardless, he’s still got enough to completely nullify anything (Rasual Butler, seriously?) the Raptors can throw at him at the 3, and give Bargnani some fits if Dallas ever goes small ball. The 3-spot quickly falls off after Marion, but they are deep enough to trot out some interesting lineup combinations.
Edge: Mavericks

Power Forward
Nowitzki > Bargnani. Bargs is making strides, nice ones, but there’s nothing else to talk about here.
Edge: Mavericks

Center
One day I’m actually going to put together my list of players I loathe; Brendan Haywood will be on that list, close to the top. I hate how the Raptors single handedly made him look like a star when he played for the Wizards. I did enjoy how after the Mavs handed him that retarded contract of his, they realized they wouldn’t be able to win anything with him as their starting center, then went and got themselves Chandler; that must have been fairly emasculating. So he will have a couple dunks, miss everything from the line and be pretty invisible for the night. Odom may or may not finally wake up and actually choose to contribute, and knowing the Raptors luck it could be tonight, but I like the center-by-committee the Raptors can field against this lot.
Edge: Raptors

The Line

The gamblers have the Mavs as 9.5 point favourites with an over/under of 196. I’m really torn on this one, on the one-hand it’s hard to imagine the Mavs losing their 4th game in a row to start the season at home to the Raptors, but on the other hand they are giving up 110 points a game.  Mavs by 3, bet against the line.

Arsenalist has a Breaking It Down post dropping after lunch; check it out.

1. Rid us of Turkoglu
2. Bring in a complimentary piece to Bosh

The fact of the matter is that Bosh wont be making a decision until he is allowed to talk to some teams, and see what they have to offer; at which point he will either sign on the dotted line, or give Colangelo his short list of teams he wants to play for.

Either way, unless we trade yet another lottery pick (and throw DeRozan in), I expect this trade to make the Raptors better in both the short/long run. Take that however you want, but we all have another week to go nuts on the ESPN trade machine.

I had a chance to talk to Rob Mahoney from The Two Man Game about the Mavericks, and what the f*ck happened.

Sam Holako: WTF happened???

Rob Mahoney: Well, that depends on who you ask. Talk to the Maverick faithful, and the team peaked too early; after riding a big winning streak following the Mavs’ acquisitions at the deadline, the team had faded going into the playoffs. Talk to the realists, and they’ll tell you of a Dallas team that never could quite get it together defensively, and lacked the offensive versatility to protect Dirk from aggressive coverage. Ask an extremist, and you’ll likely hear stories of how centuries-old prophecies as told by soothsayers around the globe foretold of Rodrigue Beaubois’ ascension, and Rick Carlisle’s stubborn denial of the rookie’s destiny led to an extended fourth quarter benching in the decisive Game 6 and a destruction of the natural order of the universe.

Needless to say, it’s all a bit complicated. Still, the easy part is that the team just wasn’t ready. They weren’t good enough on either side of the ball to get past San Antonio in the first round — much less a potential match-up with Phoenix or L.A. later in the playoffs — even if they fell just short in almost every loss.

SH: One thing I have admired about the Mavs/Cuban is that they have continually retooled via big moves in an effort to win a championship (Butler, Haywood, and Marion). However, I’m not so sure Carlisle was/is the right guy for the job (although I’m a big fan of his). You touched on his benching of Beausboise a little; while I’m not convinced he would have saved the season if played, I can’t help but think that specific event was symptomatic of a larger issue. Is it time to reduce Kids role on the Mavs and increase Patrices? Does Carlisle have what it takes to make this happen without things detiorating?

RM: I really do think he can make it happen. Carlisle has shown a lot of flexibility during his time in Dallas (his reluctance to play Beaubois was the exception, not the rule), and that’s crucial. I mean, he benched Caron Butler in a playoff game. It was the right move, but the real question is how many coaches would even be willing to do that? That was a lot of salary left sitting on the bench and a former All-Star, but Caron was hurting the offense and Carlisle knew it.

Coaches need to be willing to play whichever players give the team the best chance to win, regardless of standing or reputation. Carlisle has shown that he’s willing to do that (except with Beaubois, apparently, but again that’s more a fluke), and he’ll continue to alter the rotation until he’s satisfied.

For what it’s worth, the Mavs — from Rick Carlisle to Mark Cuban to Donnie Nelson — have made it clear that Beaubois will have a bigger role next season, both playing off the ball as he did this past season and with more time as the back-up point. That probably won’t indicate much of a drop-off for Kidd, but the team may be more conservative with Jason’s minutes in the regular season.

SH: What’s this kids upside? Not very often you hear people scream about benching a late first round pick in favour of Jason Kidd.

RM: It’s incredibly high. The physical tools are all there — the speed, the length, the athleticism, the body control — and once he finds ways to properly utilize all of his gifts, he’s going to be a force. In the meantime, he was only second on the team in points per minute, led all rookies in PER and true shooting percentage, and shot 50-40-80 from the field. He doesn’t have a ton of experience, but at the same time I wouldn’t call him “raw”; his instincts serve him well. He’s coming along at the defensive end as well, but he played defense like a rookie. I expect a little more nuance in his defensive performances in year two, with a better understanding of opposing players’ tendencies, how he fits into a team defensive concept, etc.

I see no reason why Beaubois can’t be a star in this league for a long time. All of the components are there, it just takes time and a little opportunity.

SH: An issue that has split Raptor fans into two groups is the notion of Chris Bosh as a max player. Some of us, myself included, feel that he is an elite level player in the league who is worthy of a max contract (in terms of his worth on a championship team, I feel he’s more a Pippen than a Jordan), while others violently disagree. I want to ask that question of you, can a championship team be built around Nowitzki at this stage of his career? Is he a max player? Would the Mavs be better off dealing him and rebuilding around Beaubois?

RM: For the record, I think Bosh is a max player and I’ll defend that notion to the grave. Similarly, Nowitzki is still a max player, even if he may take a lower-than-max deal to help out the team.

You can still build an offense around Dirk Nowitzki, it’s just not the easiest thing in the world. There is no template to follow, because Dirk isn’t a traditional low-post player or a super-quick point guard or an athletic swingman. The league has never seen anything quite like Dirk; there have been players with similar skills, but no one that combines Nowitzki’s unique versatility, talent, and efficiency. He just needs the right components around him on both ends of the court to secure a title, and he’s never really had that.

Even in 2006 when the Mavs went to the Finals, the thing that really put Dallas over the top was Devin Harris’ ability to penetrate. Harris is the only post-Nash point guard the Mavs have had that could really attract defensive attention. Jason Kidd, for all of his talents, doesn’t command coverage. He doesn’t penetrate particularly well, and he’s not forcing defenses to adapt to his movements. Similarly, Erick Dampier has been the most successful center of the Nowitzki era. I appreciate Damp more than anyone, but if the Mavs had a superior center in the last few seasons, Dirk could have a title to his name.

He still could, but it’s going to take some kind of adjustment. The guys currently on the roster — Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, et al — are talented, but probably not talented enough nor do they possess ideal skill sets. It doesn’t take a monumental change, but Dallas needs a few upgrades, and given that, Nowitzki could still be competitive for a title. There may be a day when the Mavs would be wise to build around Beaubois, but it’s not today. Or tomorrow. And probably not the day after that, either.

SH: Nowitzki isn’t getting any younger, but he still has a few years at an elite level in him. Cuban has shown the chops to make things happen, and has continually loaded up year after year with players that have put together great regular season teams, but failed in the playoffs. What players should he be targeting this offseason to compliment Dirk; or is trading Dirk the only answer?

RM: If I had my pick of any potential acquisition, I’d shoot for Dwyane Wade. Not exactly a great center that can anchor a defense, but he’s an elite scorer, a terrific playmaker, and an excellent defender that fills a positional need. That said, Wade won’t be giving the Mavs the time of day, which makes some of the other players that could be on the market this summer — guys like Joe Johnson and Andre Iguodala — far more reasonable targets.

Bosh is a bit of an odd fit in Dallas. Offensively, he’d be a dream, but I’m skeptical of Bosh and Dirk’s ability to coexist on defense. That said, he’s a hell of a player, and if the Mavs had a shot of nabbing him, they’d do their best to take that shot.

That shot would be something like Erick Dampier (or really, his instantly expiring contract that wouldn’t cost Toronto a penny), Rodrigue Beaubois, and DeShawn Stevenson’s expiring contract. If the Mavs were particularly desperate, they could agree to take on Hedo Turkoglu in exchange for Caron Butler, but that would sour the deal rather substantially in my opinion. It’s not a knockout for the Raps, but I honestly don’t see Toronto getting any return value better than Beaubois; he’s young, talented, and inexpensive, and would really only come with the additional cost of Stevenson’s one-year $4.15 million deal. Beaubois may not be Chris Bosh, but he’d be an excellent young piece that when paired with DeMar DeRozan, could give Toronto the most athletic (and one of the most exciting) backcourts in the league.

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Damn interesting proposal if you ask me. Have to say, if Bosh said he didn’t want to play for the Raptors anymore, and the Mavs agreed to take Turkoglu in a S&T, gotta say this deal gives us lots of options in the short and long term.

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