Things wont be getting any easier; Magic today, Knicks tomorrow, tough match-ups all around. The Raptors are maintaining a consistent level of effort defensively, but their offense is killing them. I’m sure Casey’s on the job…

Unlike the Nuggets, who had the hooplah of the Carmelo Anthony fiasco bleed onto their play on-court, the Magic have started the season 3-1, with their only loss coming against the Thunder; no shame there.

I had a chance to speak to Eddy Rivera from Magic Basketball about the Magic:

True or False: the Magic, as currently constructed, are championship contenders.

False. The Orlando Magic desperately need a dynamic shot creator on the perimeter and the bench is rather thin. Likewise, the Magic just don’t have the star power that teams like the Miami Heat have. That being said, with Ryan Anderson emerging at power forward, Hedo Turkoglu looking like his 2009 self, Orlando may have new life but it’s still early.

I’m wondering what the strategy is for Dwight Howard. Surely, if Smith wants to keep him, resigning Jason Richardson and trading for his BFF Glen Davis wont cut it, right? Also, was the Glen Davis move as stupid as I think it was?

The strategy behind re-signing Richardson and trading for Davis is to allow the Magic to compete in the event Howard leaves. It’s not smart but with an 85-year old owner that’s gunning for a championship one more time, it’s understandable. And yes, the Bass-for-Davis swap was a bad one. Each player has their flaws but Bass is better.

Will Dwight Howard be a Magic come the end of the season?

Maybe. I still think Howard will ultimately be traded to the Lakers because they offer the best “win now” assets. However, I don’t think it’s set in stone that Howard is gone. Deep down inside, Howard genuinely would like to stay with Orlando but the franchise needs to give him a reason to do so.

Match-ups

Point Guard
With Bayless a game-time decision, Calderon will have to pick it up a notch. It will be tough to play him larger minutes than normal, what with the Knicks tomorrow, but Anthony Carter isn’t much of an insurance policy. The Magic are deep at the PG, not great, but deep. Jameer Nelson is also listed as day-to-day with a neck injury. Unfortunately, even if the Raptors utterly exploit this position, it still will be an uphill battle.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
If Barbosa has to play some backup PG to Calderon, there will be a lot of pressure on DeMar to hold it down against a very deep SG lineup for the Magic. An area where the Raptors still need some work is perimeter defensive rotations (closing out on open shooters behind the arc). Between Jason Richardson and JJ Redick, any extra open space they have will result in a trey.
Edge: Magic

Small Forward
It’s depressing how weak we are at the 3-spot; lets just say Turkoglu is producing more than all our 3s combined, yea.
Edge: Magic

Power Forward
That Vince Carter trade they made a couple seasons ago was a phenomenal haul for the Magic. Ryan Anderson, seemingly, was thrown in as a salary matching after-thought (I’m sure Otis Smith knew what he was doing ). Historically, the Raptors had success against the Magic because Bargnani’s production would counter Howards. Now with Ryan Anderson putting up 19.5pts 6.5rebs 43%3P in addition to whatever Howard puts up in the middle.
Edge: Even

Center
Howard > Johnson + Magloire + Alabi. A success today, in my books, will be if Magloire comes down with a rebound, elbows up, and catches Glen Davis in the mouth.
Edge: Magic

The Line

The gamblers have the Magic as 11.5 points favourites with an over/under of 190. I’m not hopeful for today; actually, I’m never hopeful against the Magic yet the Raptors always find a way to surprise. The Magic have always had trouble defending Bargnani in the past. It’s not going to be a pretty one, I’d bet the line.

With Bargnani shifting to power forward, Amir will need all the help he can get in the middle. It’s not as desperate as you might imagine with him being undersized and all. It’s a different league/game, and with only a handful of true big centers (Howard, Bogut, Bynum, Gasol), Amir should be able to build on his career year from last year.

Magloire used to be a good center in the NBA, an all-star in 2003-2004, but has seen his game deteriorate every year since. Culminating in playing only 157 total minutes for the Heat; a team that lacked a center of any sort.

Best case scenario: Hometown boy is the newest spokesmen for Rexdale Hyundai, and provides a big body to bang against in practice.

Worst case scenario: No real downside, the team will still need to sign a couple more players to field a full squad and his contract comes off the books for the 2012 free agency period.

I much rather prefer this move than handing Nene a max/near-max contract; please don’t give Nene a massive contract, please!

The games begin tomorrow, should be an exciting week or so before camp gets underway.

1-2

The team that beat the Magic in Orlando earlier in the season is a far better one than the one rolling into town now; never mind that the Magic are also a much better team now. Don’t expect the same result, I can’t stress this enough.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Out
Sonny Weems  - Out
Linas Kleiza – Day to day

Orlando
Malik Allen – Day to day
Jameer Nelson – Day tod ay

Match-ups

Point Guard
For anyone who didn’t get concerned about the Magic after the two big trades: you haven’t been paying attention. While the Arenas trade may have been unnecessary, and potentially has hurt the front court depth, you can’t deny that having multiple playmakers come playoff time is crucial. It frees up Nelson from the burden of playmaking, to scoring and swinging the ball. After a few games to adjust, Jameer is shooting 48% from behind the arc in January while averaging 6.4ast. 60% of his shots come outside of 18feet. What’s interesting is how he’s getting those assists; on average, 2.5 ofthem result in a three, and 2.2 of them at the rim. So two-thirds of his passes result in some sort of open-look off that high screen.

The lame use of stats is meant to illustrate what kind of battle Jose should expect tonight: Jameer likes the perimeter. Leaving him to double will result in an open look that he’s all too happy to take, or even worse, when Jose runs to close him out, he blows by him and puts pressure on our defense in the paint where the options of what to do are limitless since everyone is worried about Howard.

You can officially put me in the “don’t trade Jose unless you get something really valuable back” camp. One of the best parts of this season has been-being able to sit through a game and not be upset about the effort; Jose is a big reason for that. In January, the kid is averaging 12pts 11ast; coming 1 rebound shy of a triple-double against the Wizards. With so much history since the last year we were in the playoffs, there’s going to be some nice back-and-forth with these two. I haven’t even mentioned Arenas, who frankly, I’ve expected a bit more from since the trade. The good news for the Raptors is that he pretty much spends all his time on the arc hoping to jack it up. Not sure if he’s fully recovered from that injury a few years ago, but he doesn’t seem to like to put the ball on the floor and take his man off the dribble. I’ve got my eye on this Gaines kid, who’s quickly playing Bayless out of some minutes.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
This is where things start to go really wrong for the Raptors.  It took a few weeks to get used to a totally different system than what he enjoyed in Phoenix, but Jason Richardson hasn’t lost a step. He must be relishing playing for a contender after getting to the conference finals last year. Half his shots (in a Magic uniform) come from behind the arc, and 94% of those are assisted. The guy is a catch and shoot player, and hits them rather efficiently, 44% since being traded from the Suns. Where DeMar can hurt him is off the dribble and in transition where Richardson lateral movements limit his defensive effectiveness.

I like the Raptors offense much better with DeMar as the focal point. He’s attacking the basket off the dribble, and picking his spots to take an 18 foot jumper. The shot still doesn’t inspire 100% confidence in me, but all that work in the gym seems to be paying off. If I’m DeMar, I’d be on the phone with Dave Hopla for some private shooting instruction, doesn’t even matter what it costs; he’ll more than make up for it on his next contract if he develops a consistent mid-range game.

As much as I appreciate DeRozan’s recent emergence, he needs to work harder at other aspects the game. He has the physical/athletic prowess to be a tremendous defensive player for the Raptors on the wing. One area of immediate improvement could be his ball distribution when he drives through the paint and gets doubled; passing to an open shooter could rack up easy assists for him.
Edge: Magic

Small Forward
The Turkoglu we played in the win against the Suns won’t be the same one we play tonight in Orlando. This one thrives in half-court offenses that afford him room and space to create for others off that high pick-n-roll. He’s not the same Hedo that went to the NBA finals either, but a triple-double and a 17 assist game since coming back can’t be overlooked.

I worry about the pick-n-roll defense, since Bargnani will struggle to both hedge on Hedo, as well as defend a rolling Howard. There will be lots of defensive slack for Julian Wright to pick up, and he needs to be up for the task. I like that Wright is long and can fight through screens a bit more aggressively then we’ve become accustomed too.

Wright (and Kleiza if he’s healthy) will also have to battle Hedo on the boards where he does a great job of complimenting Howard. Full Disclosure: even though I felt like a dirty traitor, I picked up Hedo on waivers, and he’s done very well for me. The guy contributes all over the map, with the only knock being he doesn’t play defense at a high-level.

Oh yea, watch the three; he’s been shooting it at over 44% since getting traded.
Edge: Magic

Power Forward
I really thought Johnson and Davis would bring the goods against the Spurs, and to a degree they did, but they clearly got their butts handed to them on a platter by Dajuan Blair, who’s an absolute beast. Notwithstanding Blair, the Raps front court did a pretty good job (minus Bargnani’s contribution).

Tell me you don’t like the pairing of Amir and Ed Up front. Defense and rebounding aren’t an issue, with the offense looking a bit more fluid with DeRozan taking the lions share of the responsibility. I appreciate them putting it all on the floor, and growing into their roles as guys who contribute across the board as important role players (Davis might prove to be more given the chance, Amir is what he is).

I’m willing to bet that Amir/Ed will be checking Howard during key stretches of the game, and probably doing a better job of it than Bargs. I also like Howard checking either of them on defense, since they live in the paint, and can substitute in and out quickly to give Dwight fresh legs to constantly deal with. Not saying they will score on him at will, but they are active and could force Dwight into some early foul trouble.
Edge: Toronto

Center
It gave me the warm-fuzzies when Triano decided to flex some coaching muscle, and benching Bargnani when it was clear he was hurting the team. Lets hope Bargnani got the message loud and clear. That said, Bargnani isn’t the kind of the player who can fall back on other aspects of his game when the shots aren’t falling. 90% of his effectiveness comes from his scoring, and if he’s not shooting well, then he’s as useless as Arsenalist cruising at Hemingways on a Friday night.

The shot needs to be there tonight from the tip, since Bass/Anderson have no chance checking him on the perimeter. He can shoot over both, and back both down into the paint for short turn-around-half-hooks. Even off the dribble, no one on the Magic can check the guy. He’s got so much offensive ability, it’s really comical he doesn’t average 25 a game consistently. A lot of that comes from his sick tendencies of stepping inside the arc and launching low percentage jumpers; his efficiency crashes when this happens.
Edge: Magic

Keys to the Game

Defend the Pick-n-Roll Aggressively
It’s going to come hard, and with a lot of furry.  The guy being screened will have to fight through them, and the guy defending the picker will have to hedge and buy some time for the defense to recover and set itself.

Perimeter Defense
Dwight Howard commands so much attention, that Magic shooters get a lot of looks, good ones, from the perimeter. Pick-n-roll defense is one aspect of this, another is how many doubles we through at Howard in the paint. The Magic are surprisingly 25th in the league in assists, so their offense is a lot of catch-and-shoots, which doesn’t give a lot of time for defensive rotations to play catch-up.

Don’t Give Hedo any Satisfaction
Easier said than done with the team he’s playing on, but I don’t want to see him smiling and laughing it up because of he’s on route to a triple-double.

The Line

The gamblers have the Magic as 11.5 point favourites, with an over/under of 207. The Magic play a slow pace, but are deliberate and damn efficient at it. The Raptors can’t spot them 10 points to start the game, since they will grind the game to slower pace, and pick us apart. Not much hope here tonight; just need to play our game and keep developing good habits. Since we got the Heat tomorrow night, you might see Triano shut things down if the Magic run away with this early to keep guys as fresh as possible for Bosh & co.

The Raptors have it tough for the next 10 days; four of the next six games are against playoff teams, and three of those teams are elite. It kicks off tonight in Orlando and it’s not going to be a pretty one. We’ve talked ad nauseam about what this team is (isn’t) capable of, how good (or bad) certain players are, and the job security of one coach. What we need to consider is that this season is a wash. The Raptors aren’t good enough to do anything, and the lineup shouldn’t be tinkered with to fight for a playoff spot because it will jeopardize the teams future in doing so.

Khandor hit the nail on the head with his piece after the Bobcats game:

COMPONENTS OF A GOOD LOSS FOR THE RAPTORS THIS SEASON

1. Their opponent is a team with more NBA level talent on their roster than Toronto.
2. The game’s final outcome is only decided in the last 30 seconds of play.
3. At no point during the game does Toronto fall behind by more than 10 points.
4. At no point during the game does Toronto go ahead by more than 15 points.
5. DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis – only once he is 100% healthy, again – receive at least 20+ minutes of PT, including at the start of quarters #1 and #3, plus during the last 6 minutes of quarter #4 [and, in any overtime session which might be played].

The long term objective for the Toronto Raptors this season should be focused, exclusively, on obtaining the future rights to a Top 3 Pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Anything which, in fact, moves the team closer to achieving THIS specific goal next summer is a good thing for this franchise heading towards the future.

Something to think about.

Life got in the way, and I got stood up by the Orlando blogger, but here are the questions I asked (I’ll update this with his answers if he gets them to me today):

1. What’s going on with Rashard Lewis? Vince Carter got a lot of flack for his poorish performance in the playoffs, but Lewis was just as bad, averaging 12.9pts 5.6rebs 2.3ast. His play has seemed to seep into this season. I’m clearly missing something.
2. Jameer Nelson has been a big part of this team’s recent success, but his injuries make it difficult for the team to be consistent (shuffling guys here and there). Williams and Duhon are capable backups, but seriously. At what point does Otis Smith say “enough’s enough” and go out and make a splash to upgrade the point?
3. A lot has been said about Gortat and Bass not being happy with their playing time. Gortat especially didn’t seem happy the Magic matched the contract Dallas extended him. I’m not sure where I’m going with this, but they could be valuable pieces to upgrade this roster; please comment.
4. Even though they lost the first meeting with Miami, I like how this teams matches up against them. The Celtics on the other hand could pose some big problems. What are Orlando’s prospects of getting back into the finals this year?
5. Almost a joke to ask, but what is the strategy coming in against the Raptors?

Injury Report

Toronto
Jarrett Jack – Sore Knee, Will Play
Reggie Evans – Bruised Left Hip, Gametime Decision
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Doubtful
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Out
Ed Davis – Out

Orlando
Jameer Nelson – Hurting, Will Play
Vince Carter – LOL, Will Play

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Nelson
The guys been killing our PG’s for years: he’s quick enough to beat them off the dribble, strong enough to knock them off tilt and hits every single bloody shot he takes against us. It’s very frustrating. He is coming back from an injury, but it didn’t stop him from playing well against the Jazz (even though the team lost) chipping in 19pts 7ast. Based on everything we’ve seen so far this season, I don’t see how Jack/Calderon have any chance tonight. Might be nice to see Banks get some run and step up defensively, but we know that’s not going to happen; why would it?
Edge: Nelson

SG – DeRozan vs Carter
After starting the season strong, he has utterly fallen apart the last three games, averaging 4.3pts 2.7rebs while shooting 33% from the field. Yes, the match-ups weren’t in his favour, but since when is that an excuse to put up Marcus Banks numbers? Carter owns us. Period. He might be in the twilight of his career, but he still can light it up, and is actually playing efficiently all things considered (52%FG 44%3FG 20.68PER). Only Amir Johnson is as productive as Carter with a PER of 21.39. It’s a nice game for DeMar to come out of his funk from, since VC wont be able to keep up with him if he gets going. Like most nights, he has the tools to make life difficult for folks, it’s just a matter of being focused and having your head in the game.
Edge: Carter

SF – Kleiza vs Lewis
It’s lose-lose at the 3. If Kleiza’s achilles is still bothering him, there’s no way he can hang with Lewis. If he can’t even play, the Raptors have no one who can begin to match-up here. Weems, while athletic, doesn’t have the size to bother Lewis (6″10). While Kleiza isn’t 6″10 either, he does have some strength which can compensate. At the end of the day, Lewis is only averaging 11pts 6rebs (all for the low-low price of $20mil), but if folks start doubling Howard (like I wish they wouldn’t but know they will), there’s going to be a lot of open shots for the guys on the perimeter.
Edge: Lewis

PF – Evans vs Anderson / C – Bargnani vs Howard
I have a feeling the front court is going to get messy, and will see the following match-ups (humour me here):

Raptors Playing Defense
Bargnani/Howard & Evans/Anderson
We all know Bargnani wont stop Howard, but the killer part here is that since Anderson likes to live on the perimeter, Evans will be out of position to rebound on the defensive glass. Bargnani has no chance on Howard, and this could get messy fast. I expect Amir to get some heavy minutes if he can play with his head and stay out of foul trouble; even Dorsey should see some time. This situation neutralizes the only reason to start Evans alongside Bargnani, and exposes how bad this front court really is.

Raptors Playing Offense
Bargnani/Anderson & Evans/Howard
I don’t see Howard playing out on the perimeter with Bargnani. The Magic are the 2nd best defensive team, and 4th best rebounding team for a reason: Dwight Howard is a beast in the paint. Evans is a bad enough offensive player that Howard can essentially roam free and help everywhere, and recover fast enough to challenge Reggie in the paint. Anderson moves well enough that he can keep up with Bargnani, but probably wont prevent him from dropping 17+. I don’t think the Magic will care since they will basically be dictating the flow of the game, and Howard will be there to clean up anyone attacking the rim.
Edge: Anderson & Howard

Keys to the Game

Play with Heart
The expectation tonight is not to win, but rather to play with some pride. There is a moral victory to be had here if at the end of the game the Raptors can say they did their best, but still lost. The gain here is continuing the aggressive play they’ve shown us, not getting down big early, fighting for every possession, and making smart plays.

Pray to Jah
Seriously. It will take every Raptor, hitting on all cylinders, not making mistakes and sticking a lot of shots for this to be a contest. The Magics bench is pretty scary too, which compounds the problem: Mickael Pietrus, Brandon Bass, Martin Gortat, JJ Reddick…they are better at every possible match-up and combination of lineups.

The Line

The Magic are 14 point favourites, at home with a full days rest.

Looking to have some food, drinks and good times with other Raptor fans? Come check out Raptor Fan Fridays at The Sports Center Cafe.

As always, we got Twitter, Facebook and Live Chat; pick your poison.

Q. How did the Knicks do this off-season? Talk about drafts, trades and free agent signings as well as ownership/management changes.

Kevin McElroy: The answer to this question is necessarily relative to expectations. By any normal measure, this was the Knicks best summer since the mid-90’s. Their failed pursuit for LeWyane Bosh aside, the Knicks brought in Amare Stoudemire, a five-time all-star with three top-ten scoring seasons who also happens to be the active career leader in true shooting percentage. While concerns about the riskiness of the acquisition (especially those relating to Stoudemire’s injury history) are understandable, the rarity with which players of Stoudemire’s caliber can be had without forfeiting any tradeable assets makes the signing a worthwhile gamble. The David Lee trade — in which the Knicks gave up a player that they had already made redundant and received two valuable role players and a freakish athlete with world-class upside in return — was the best player for player(s) swap the Knicks have made since they brought in Latrell Sprewell and Marcus Camby; if Anthony Randolph develops, it will go down as even better than those trades.

I worry about Raymond Felton eating up valuable cap space, but I get the feeling that his signing was about keeping Amare happy enough to keep telling his buddies how great things were in New York — Felton’s contract should be moveable if he becomes the final obstacle to bringing in another star. I hated the Knicks’ play-it-safe strategy on draft night, but based upon the summers that Landry Fields and Lance Stephenson have had, my opinion on the matter has softened. Fields will hang around for 10 years and be a useful role player for the Knicks in the near term.

Q. Who came out the bigger winner AND loser in the Atlantic Division?

KM: I’ll exclude the Knicks from the conversation here since I’ve already discussed their offseason. I think the Celtics are the winners by default, mostly because they were the only Atlantic Division team good enough to focus their off-season on filling their remaining needs rather than blindly overhauling the team and hoping it would work out. I’m not crazy about their Shaquisition for the same reason I wasn’t crazy about it when he was Shaquired by Phoenix or Cleveland, but at the veteran minimum it’s a low risk move and they can always tell him to go away if he becomes a problem.

As for the biggest losers, the Nets’ mind-bendingly bizarre assortment of free agent signings gets the nod even in a division where Toronto lost their franchise leader in scoring and rebounding just as he was entering his prime. Better build that arena, Brooklyn, or Johan Petro will be plying his trade elsewhere!

Q. Last season we saw a dog fight from 5-9 in the East for a playoff appearance (the Raptors dropped from 5th to 9th rapidly at the tail-end of the season). What are your predictions for this upcoming season? Who are your dark horses to watch out for?

KM: Obviously the Heat jump out of that dog fight and into the top 3, arguably the top 1. I think this will be another season in which the Eastern Conference can be separated into pretty well-defined tiers. The Tier 1 teams — Miami, Orlando, Boston — seem fairly insurmountable at the top of the pyramid, although if the Celtics all get old at the same time, they could feasibly drop into Tier 2. For now, Tier 2 is Atlanta, Chicago, and probably Milwaukee, all of whom should qualify for the postseason comfortably and will be primarily concerned with finishing 5th or better and thus avoiding the Tier 1 teams in the first round. Tier 3 is where it gets a bit hairy: Charlotte has to be viewed as the 7th best team going into the year, but New York has much greater upside and is the only team outside of Tiers 1 and 2 with a chance to vault into the top 6 if everything goes right.

If things implode for the Knicks — and, let’s face it, why shouldn’t they — The Pacers, Sixers, and Cavs are all in the picture for one of the last two playoff spots. One more quick point that nobody is talking about: I will not be surprised if strength of schedule becomes a decisive factor in the Eastern Conference this year. The Bobcats have to play a whopping 15 games against the Heat, Magic, and Hawks, while the Knicks and Sixers will play each other five times and have 10 games each against the Nets and Raps. Could be enough to bump the Bobcats down to ninth in a tight East.

Q. Is what happened in Miami bad for the league? On the one hand, players are taking control of their own futures (as best as possible); but on the other, the rich just seem to get richer.

KM: I swore a lifelong oath of hatred against the Miami Heat the day that Pat Riley hopped the fence back in 1995, but the answer to this question is still “no.” In the long-term, this has to be viewed as good for the league, and not just because it will allow us to see something we’ve never seen before (which it will) and give other fan bases a unifying enemy (which it also will). The reason I’m glad it happened, and happened when it did, is that it has placed everything from cap rules to player tampering to the merits of “Superteams” at the forefront of the conversation, just before a watershed CBA renegotiation. This is the best way for basketball fans and writers to have any kind of a voice about the future of the league. Maybe I’m dreaming on that but, at a time when the NBA seems desperate to drum up demand for its product, it will have an unprecedented opportunity to gauge public opinion on nearly every issue that is likely to come up this summer. We may all be thanking LeWyane Bosh before this is over.

(Was that convincing? No? Darn it. I really hate the Heat.)

Q. Do you share the view that playing in Toronto is similar to playing in Europe, and not very appealing to American born players? What’s your take on the Raptors and Toronto as a destination for the NBA elite?

KM: I think there are five or six “destination cities” in the League right now — LA, Miami, New York, Chicago, maybe one or two of the Texas cities — and I don’t think Toronto is one of them. But I think it’s still a long way up from playing in Europe and doubt the Canadian border has much of a practical effect on players’ decisions. Most NBA cities become appealing destinations if and only if their resident teams employ players and executives that are appealing to NBA free agents, which the post-Bosh Raptors probably don’t. The problem is that Toronto’s previous attempts at building around a franchise player were based upon guys whose personalities were not conducive to being the first major building block on a team in a non-destination city. It only takes one super-talented, super-loyal star — think Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard — to attract top players to a place that once seemed to be on the NBA periphery. The problem, of course, is finding that guy. Clearly, Vince Carter and Chris Bosh didn’t fit the description.

Q. What’s your take on Bryan Colangelo and the job he’s done for the Raptors? Could he have held on to Bosh had he made other choices? Did he make a huge mistake by not trading him earlier? What about the type of team he is trying to build in Toronto?

KM: I think Bosh was always leaving — he’s a very good second option alongside an elite scoring wing with good court vision; now he gets to play with two of them. It’s interesting to think about how things would have played out for Toronto if Bosh and T-Mac had come along at about the same time — they would have complemented each other brilliantly, maybe well enough that they both would have wanted to stay. As for Colangelo, I think he was probably doomed from the start. His mandate was to focus singularly on the retention of a player who was 1) probably always going to leave and 2) probably not good enough to be the best player on a great team anyway. To the extent that this strategy has failed (in the departure of Bosh) or set the franchise back (due to the shortsightedness of some of Toronto’s acquisitions), that failure is more associated with the flaws of the mandate (which fall at the feet of ownership) than with any flaws in execution (which would fall at the feet of Colangelo). That said, Toronto clearly needs to dive head-first into overhaul mode and that necessarily involves a conversation regarding whether Colangelo remains the right man for what is now a very different job.

It took 28 games, and an injury that sidelined Calderon for a couple weeks, but the Raptors have finally come together. 7-1 in their last 8 games and we have ourselves a team that has a chance to climb above .500 for the first time since Nov. 13, a span of 27 games that took years off of all our lives.

2010 has us 2-1 against teams, who if the playoffs started today, would have home-court advantage. If that doesn’t lend credibility to the 5 game winning streak they went on in December against weaker opponents, then I don’t know what does. Even the most cynical and pessimistic of us all (I’m mostly talking about myself here) have our chins up off the ground with pride.

This recent 7-1 stretch has been an about face for this organization defensively. After surrendering 108.6 points a game (a  defense which was referred to as the worst in NBA history), our boys have tightened their laces and dug deep, to only give up a stingy 92.6 points. That sort of defense takes the pressure off your offense and allows you to let the game to come to you. This is exactly what we have been seeing from this lot.

Against Orlando, we saw crisp rotations and excellent man defense in the paint, especially by Bargnani on Howard. You wouldn’t know it by looking at the box score, but Howard was kept in check – the guy only had 10 shot attempts from the floor. Had it not been for that 4th quarter collapse of sorts (35 points surrendered), the Raptors would have kept the Magic around 95 points for the game.

Against Philly, we will need more of the same, especially from Bargnani. Dalembert is coming off a ridiculous 20/20 game against the Wizards. He’s always given us big problems under the rim with his size and rebounding. In fact, Philly’s entire front line consists of young, athletic bigs who keep coming in waves. Bosh/Bargnani/Johnson will need to make a concerted effort on the boards. I know I keep saying this, but if we take away their second chance attempts, it will make it that much harder for them to score.

What will be crucial for the Raptors will be the play of Calderon off the bench. He had a phenomenal game against the Magic, penetrating and kicking out to open shooters on the perimeter, circa 2007 where he was at his most effective. I actually haven’t seen that from him all season, as he looked a bit off/timid before he was out for a couple weeks. Whatever was going on with him, I don’t care, our boy is back – hopefully.

This will be our first look at Iverson in two years, and I must say, I’m pretty excited. His play of late has been pretty solid. Interestingly enough, over the last 5 games, the Sixers have lost when Iverson hasn’t reached double digits in points. The guy has clearly lost a step, but he’s crafty, so DeRozan/Weems/Belinelli will have to keep him on him off screens and through traffic. This should actually be a matchup where our SG by committee should win. Athletically, we should give Philly SG’s fits all night.

The line has Philly at -1.5, with the over/under at 196, but after that collapse to the Wizards, I can’t see the Sixers having a whole lot in them, even at home. Raptors take this bad boy 98-92, and climb 1 game over .500 for the first time in two months.

Joint us tonight at the Sports Center Cafe for Raptor Fan Fridays. Some good times, good food, good beverages and hopefully a good win. TGIF.

The Raptors have another chance to improve their record to .500 (18-18) tonight in Orlando. With 6 wins in their last 7 games, the last one being a big win over the Spurs, it’s hard not to get a bit excited regardless of who we beat to get here. At the end of the day, you have to sit back and consider that to be a middle of the pack, low playoff seed good team in this league:

• You have to beat the teams who are worse then you
• You have to compete and beat at least half the teams who are the same level as you
• And you have to steal a game or two from the teams who are better then you.

After a horrific start to the season, this is the path the Raptors are on, and realistically, it is the only one we should have expected at this point in time. Tonight, the Raptors are facing the third scenario above: they have a realistic opportunity to steal against a team who is better than them. The Magic are arguably the deepest team in the league. Twice so far this season, we have lost games to them where an unsung role player has stepped up and been the deciding factor in the game (Reddick, Anderson, Barnes).

So I’m calling this a realistic steal because the Magic are on the second night of a back-to-back, and a two game losing streak (losses to Chicago and Indiana). The Raptors are well rested, and have been in Orlando a couple days, so it is hard to imagine that they could lose two season season series against Eastern Conference teams in the same week (Boston is 2-0 against us).

With Calderon slated  to return tonight, the point guard controversy will be in full swing, I know this because I’m feeding the fire right now. With Jack playing so well in Jose’s absence, and Jose probably not being 100% healthy (if recent history holds true), our boy will be coming off the bench for at least this game. I’d like to make one thing clear: the Raptors are NOT better with Jose out of the lineup. When he is healthy, he is a top 15 point guard in the league. However, I do contend that if the Jack/Banks duo can hold it down, we have glaring needs at the wing that can be addressed by trading Calderon for the right piece (notice how I said the right piece).

The match-up sucks for the Raptors every way you slice it. With Howard commanding so much attention in the paint, it doesn’t matter which of Bosh or Bargnani (usually Bosh) covers him – the other (usually Bargnani) will be sent over for the double, then all that is left is for Howard to kick it out to one of the shooters (usually Lewis, since Bargnani is doubling) and make us pay for playing into their hands (usually because our rotations suck).

That was what usually has happened, but the Raptors have gelled a bit over the last 7 games and are communicating more. We have seen some pretty impressive games where man defense was tight, rotations were crisp, and folks were talking. They will need a lot of that tonight.

IMHO, you have to stay at home with this Magic team. If Howard can create room for his shooters (list everyone else in the top 9 of the rotation), then there will be hell to pay. Over the first two games this season, the Magic have shot 31-62 from behind the arc (with Lewis absent from that first contest) against the Raptors, easily the stat that stands out the most, and is the reason we’ve lost by a combined 28pts.

I like Jack manning up Nelson to start the game, he will get bumped more then when Calderon is on him. This wont shut Jameer down, but it will make it that much harder for him to run the offense. Telling of this two game losing streak is VC’s performance over the stretch: 7pts 3rebs 2ast on 5-30 shooting (zero 3′s) from the floor. DeRozan/Weems/Belinelli will have to keep Carter out of the paint, and off the line. He has been shooting terribly from the floor, so they can’t let him find his rhythm – all jumpers, no layups, let’s do it 80′s style.

I’m actually thinking a win tonight for the Raptors. The Magic are tired, and playing pretty bad over the last two games. The Raptors are fresh and can distance themselves a bit from Charlotte and Milwaukee in the standings with a win. The line wasn’t posted at time of publishing this, but you can bet it will be tight one. Raptors grind out a tight one tonight, 97-91 with Bargnani leading the way (I believe).

So much for unfounded optimism in calling games (my pre-game call), I will be sticking to my gut feeling from now on (my podcast call). Pitiful display by the Raptors last night. We’ve owned the Heat over the last few seasons, so you knew they were due for a win, but not like that. After what we did to the Rockets? After that team meeting that was supposed to be the key to the season? Looks like what ails the Raptors requires a shuffling of players/coach, and not Alvin Williams facilitating communication workshops while Gherardini translates.

I’m still pretty embarrassed from that loss to the Magic a month ago. The one where our genius marketing/PR team thought it a great idea to pay tribute to Vince Carter, while he was playing against us that same day. The one where he declined the offer, then proceeded to pace the Magic to the win, with a perma-grin plastered on his face the whole time. I ask one thing of the Raptors marketing team: please don’t spawn any new gimmicks for games where we play Vince Carter. We are 0-2 in these situations, and I fear the worst for all of our sanity if you fail miserably one more time.

I don’t like playing Orlando this year because I’m constantly reminded of what the Raptors SHOULD have done the last two off-seasons, namely go after Pietrus and Barnes since they represented exactly what this team was missing and continues to need at a reasonable price tag.

Tonight against the Magic is going to be bad.  The Magic by the numbers:

• 7-3 in their last ten
• 8-2 at home
• 14-3 against the East
• +5.8 scoring differential (5th best in the league)
• 43.1 rebounds a game (7th in the league)
• 21pts 23rebs by Howard Monday against the Pacers
• 28pts 7rebs 3ast by VC Monday against the Pacers

You see where I’m going with this right? The Raptors need to do exactly the opposite of what they did against the Heat last night.

Bosh/Bargnani need to attack Howard early and get him into foul trouble. They need to hit him and get between him and the glass. You aren’t going to out jump the guy, so get in there and fight. Rashard Lewis will stretch the defense, so one of Bosh or Bargnani will be out of position to rebound, means the rest of the girls need to pull up their knickers and compensate. Bosh needs to grab more then 2 rebounds, regardless of who he’s covering. We had mixed results against Houston/Miami, but with Orlando grabbing so many rebounds, the Raptors have to do better then the last time around when the Magic’s offensive rebounding was brutalizing our girls.

Turkoglu needs to be kept under control. I know this is going to be an emotional night for him returning to Orlando after playing there for 5 years, but he isn’t the kind of guy who can just damage a team on his own. I do like giving him the ball and letting him create for Bosh/Bargnani though, but that’s it. His one-on-one moves need to be minimized, and his shots should only come in the natural flow of the offense…whatever that means for the Raptors.

Vince had a monster night Monday against the Pacers that helped pace Howard to a monster night of his own. We know VC can score, we know he can create, but lets hit him a few times. I bet if DeRozan/Weems elbow him a couple times in the kidneys, he stays away. Let him shoot the lights out, I just don’t want him getting to the rack and laying it up gracefully as he does. While we’re at it, how about not letting JJ Reddick have another career night. The guy can shoot, so lets not double Howard down low, letting him kick out to one of his open shooters (in this case Reddick) who will knock it down. If you didn’t know, that is what Orlando wants everyone to do. The team is built on this one thing.

Jimmy‘s sim says Orlando will win 101-88. The gamblers have the Magic as -11 and the money at -750. I had the Raptors losing this one in the podcast, it’s the second night of a back-to-back, so I’ll be damned if I change my mind; Magic win 114-89.

The Raptors’ franchise (and max contract) player
By: Tom Liston

Free agency 2010 talk drives me crazy. I believe Chris Bosh hasn’t made up his mind. How can he? He doesn’t know how this team will finish. Nor does he know what teams will have cap room and what their plans are. However, more frustrating are the comments I’ve read recently about him not being worth a maximum contract. Frankly, I was shocked, but it was worth “refreshing” my own thoughts on the topic so I did a bit more research and concluded that:

Chris Bosh is absolutely a max-contract/franchise player.

There are approximately 30 players in and around that “max” contract type number (http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm). Some of these players have been quite overpaid in hindsight (e.g. Jermaine O’Neal) and others are due for large raises. And not every team will be able to afford to pay a maximum contact. So, let’s say that there are a solid 20 players that can be considered franchise/max players. In that context, let’s see where Mr. Bosh is currently for the 2009-10 season:

Sources: NBA.com and Basketball-reference.com / For win shares calculation / PER rankings

Mr. Bosh is top 10 in every major “overall” efficiency ranking. While PER, NBA Efficiency, Win Shares and Adjusted +/- all have drawbacks (there simply isn’t a “holy grail” of overall efficiency), the data is telling.

Besides the obvious positives from the scoring and overall rebounding numbers Bosh puts up, there are a two metrics that jump out to me: free throws attempted and offensive rebounds. These are two metrics which have an understated impact on winning games. Bosh being number 1 in free throw attempts is huge. It largely means he’s getting a key opposing big in foul trouble (and scoring points at the same time). This usually leads to easier attempts by his teammates as it often “opens” up the lane due to the lack of presence of the opponent’s key big. Offensive rebounds is another statistic that may not be fully appreciated. Not only did you “save” a possession, but you likely were able to put up a highly efficient shot. Ranking 5^th (per game) in the league is impressive.

So you ask, who shows up on the top of Win Shares, PER, and Adjusted +/- rankings?

Well, maybe you didn’t, but it’s: LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash… oh and some guy named Christopher Wesson Bosh. And only four of them (yes, Mr. Bosh included) were on top of all three categories) It’s difficult to say if Mr. Bosh continues on this pace (see Blake Murphy’s great post for the data from last year), but there is little doubt in my mind he’s one of the premier players in the game today and certainly a maximum contract or “franchise” player.

“But he hasn’t taken his team to the promised land” one may argue. I’ll counter that view by saying you need another star (or “near-star”) and key role players to do this. Shaq had Kobe, Kobe had Shaq, Bird had McHale/Parrish/DJ, Magic had Kareem, Jordan had Pippen, Duncan had Ginobilli/Parker, etc. Bosh has yet to receive this quality support.

“But his defense isn’t up to par”. Two things: i) his Adjusted +/- partly accounts for this and his number is great ii) you tend to have play help D much more often when your 4 teammates are generally very poor defenders. This can exaggerate (negatively) your own performance.

Statistics sometimes “lie”. But watching many of the games this year, you see Bosh dig deep to pull games out. He is not a “create-my-own-shot-with-5-seconds” left type of player. No centre or power forward is. But he helps his team win games – throughout the game – and does it extremely well.

Chris Bosh is a special player. A franchise player. A maximum contract player. And a player that I want in a Raptors uniform for a long time.

In what amounted to another middle-finger being pointed at the Raptors by our ex-franchise player, Vince Carter had the last laugh again. How ridiculously ill conceived is this plan to honour Raptors greats of the past? I mean, Oakley was cool because he is years removed from playing, and he’s interesting. But making a fuss about players like MoPete, Bonner and VC while they are still playing and trying to get wins for their teams (against the Raptors) is stupid. At least we didn’t have a “Sea of Blue” cross-promotion with the Leafs as the Magic rolled into town.

I enjoy playing in that atmosphere and I enjoy coming back here and playing, just being a part of this.” Carter said. “This is where it all started.

At the end of the day, this Magic team is on a different level than the Raptors. They were missing an injured Jameer Nelson, and Brandon Bass didn’t get off the bench, and still had more than enough to take this one to the bank.

I’m really only concerned with the 4th quarter, as the first three were evenly played. The same issues are starting to surface, and we are seeing some developments in the fourth quarter that are very,very concerning in my humble opinion.

Like the last few games, the Raptors had a stretch of 4 minutes where they didn’t score. Not only did they not score, they didn’t try to get a good shot:

• Turkoglu stumbles into the lane and misses an off-balance layup (should have went straight up)
• Bargnani clanks a three off the front of the rim from 25ft
• Jack forces a jumper and misses
• Calderon misses a three that should have fell from the foul line extended

See any trends? I’ll give you a hint: Bosh didn’t touch the ball. To be fair, he didn’t check into the game until the 8:25 mark. However, he didn’t actually take a shot until the 4:28 mark when Reddick nicked his elbow on a jump shot attempt (another bad shot). The Magic were on a 15-2 run before Bosh hit his free throws.

The last time we played them, we gave him free rein to the rim,” Howard said of Bosh. “He got a lot of easy rebounds. Tonight, we kept a body on him, forced him to stay out of the lane and not be able to get those easy rebounds.

They did a great job of keeping Bosh out of the game. He did score 22, but only had 5 rebounds on the night. He literally had two shot attempts in the 4th (one of them he drew a foul so it didn’t count). Let me repeat that: CHRIS BOSH HAD ONE SHOT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. One…We let a big opportunity pass through our fingers considering we had Howard on the ropes early in the first quarter with two fouls.

I have to say it, but we really missed Belinelli coming off the bench today. Amir picked up some slack, and Weems chipped in some, but Belinelli has been huge for us down the stretch of games hitting some big/clutch shots.

Uhm…what else was there…yes..the pick and roll defense was terrible. Arse broke it down with some guerilla videography, I have nothing to add except +1.

Four Factors to Losing

Shooting the Ball Well
Neither team shot the ball particularly well, but the Raptors were marginally more efficient from the field.
Raptors – 48%
Magic – 46.3%

Taking Care of the Ball
Both teams did a great job of limiting turnovers.
Raptors – 9.8%
Magic – 7.6%

Offensive Rebounding
When you go 9-32 from behind the arc, there will be plenty of long-juicy rebounds to grab. Howard led the way with 5 offensive boards, that translated into 5 points scored by the Magic.
Raptors – 20%
Magic – 28.5%

Getting to the Free Throw Line
The Magic got to the line at a higher rate, and hit more from when they got there. When you are hitting from the field, this is what good teams do, pound it inside and draw fouls.
Raptors – 36.3%
Magic – 42.1%

Safe to say that the Magic won this game by solid offensive rebounding and getting to the line.

Player Impact

Bosh marginally led the way, but Johnson was HUGE. Amir had his best game as a Raptor without Belinelli dropping ridiculous passes to him.