The team that beat the Magic in Orlando earlier in the season is a far better one than the one rolling into town now; never mind that the Magic are also a much better team now. Don’t expect the same result, I can’t stress this enough.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Out
Sonny Weems  - Out
Linas Kleiza – Day to day

Orlando
Malik Allen – Day to day
Jameer Nelson – Day tod ay

Match-ups

Point Guard
For anyone who didn’t get concerned about the Magic after the two big trades: you haven’t been paying attention. While the Arenas trade may have been unnecessary, and potentially has hurt the front court depth, you can’t deny that having multiple playmakers come playoff time is crucial. It frees up Nelson from the burden of playmaking, to scoring and swinging the ball. After a few games to adjust, Jameer is shooting 48% from behind the arc in January while averaging 6.4ast. 60% of his shots come outside of 18feet. What’s interesting is how he’s getting those assists; on average, 2.5 ofthem result in a three, and 2.2 of them at the rim. So two-thirds of his passes result in some sort of open-look off that high screen.

The lame use of stats is meant to illustrate what kind of battle Jose should expect tonight: Jameer likes the perimeter. Leaving him to double will result in an open look that he’s all too happy to take, or even worse, when Jose runs to close him out, he blows by him and puts pressure on our defense in the paint where the options of what to do are limitless since everyone is worried about Howard.

You can officially put me in the “don’t trade Jose unless you get something really valuable back” camp. One of the best parts of this season has been-being able to sit through a game and not be upset about the effort; Jose is a big reason for that. In January, the kid is averaging 12pts 11ast; coming 1 rebound shy of a triple-double against the Wizards. With so much history since the last year we were in the playoffs, there’s going to be some nice back-and-forth with these two. I haven’t even mentioned Arenas, who frankly, I’ve expected a bit more from since the trade. The good news for the Raptors is that he pretty much spends all his time on the arc hoping to jack it up. Not sure if he’s fully recovered from that injury a few years ago, but he doesn’t seem to like to put the ball on the floor and take his man off the dribble. I’ve got my eye on this Gaines kid, who’s quickly playing Bayless out of some minutes.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
This is where things start to go really wrong for the Raptors.  It took a few weeks to get used to a totally different system than what he enjoyed in Phoenix, but Jason Richardson hasn’t lost a step. He must be relishing playing for a contender after getting to the conference finals last year. Half his shots (in a Magic uniform) come from behind the arc, and 94% of those are assisted. The guy is a catch and shoot player, and hits them rather efficiently, 44% since being traded from the Suns. Where DeMar can hurt him is off the dribble and in transition where Richardson lateral movements limit his defensive effectiveness.

I like the Raptors offense much better with DeMar as the focal point. He’s attacking the basket off the dribble, and picking his spots to take an 18 foot jumper. The shot still doesn’t inspire 100% confidence in me, but all that work in the gym seems to be paying off. If I’m DeMar, I’d be on the phone with Dave Hopla for some private shooting instruction, doesn’t even matter what it costs; he’ll more than make up for it on his next contract if he develops a consistent mid-range game.

As much as I appreciate DeRozan’s recent emergence, he needs to work harder at other aspects the game. He has the physical/athletic prowess to be a tremendous defensive player for the Raptors on the wing. One area of immediate improvement could be his ball distribution when he drives through the paint and gets doubled; passing to an open shooter could rack up easy assists for him.
Edge: Magic

Small Forward
The Turkoglu we played in the win against the Suns won’t be the same one we play tonight in Orlando. This one thrives in half-court offenses that afford him room and space to create for others off that high pick-n-roll. He’s not the same Hedo that went to the NBA finals either, but a triple-double and a 17 assist game since coming back can’t be overlooked.

I worry about the pick-n-roll defense, since Bargnani will struggle to both hedge on Hedo, as well as defend a rolling Howard. There will be lots of defensive slack for Julian Wright to pick up, and he needs to be up for the task. I like that Wright is long and can fight through screens a bit more aggressively then we’ve become accustomed too.

Wright (and Kleiza if he’s healthy) will also have to battle Hedo on the boards where he does a great job of complimenting Howard. Full Disclosure: even though I felt like a dirty traitor, I picked up Hedo on waivers, and he’s done very well for me. The guy contributes all over the map, with the only knock being he doesn’t play defense at a high-level.

Oh yea, watch the three; he’s been shooting it at over 44% since getting traded.
Edge: Magic

Power Forward
I really thought Johnson and Davis would bring the goods against the Spurs, and to a degree they did, but they clearly got their butts handed to them on a platter by Dajuan Blair, who’s an absolute beast. Notwithstanding Blair, the Raps front court did a pretty good job (minus Bargnani’s contribution).

Tell me you don’t like the pairing of Amir and Ed Up front. Defense and rebounding aren’t an issue, with the offense looking a bit more fluid with DeRozan taking the lions share of the responsibility. I appreciate them putting it all on the floor, and growing into their roles as guys who contribute across the board as important role players (Davis might prove to be more given the chance, Amir is what he is).

I’m willing to bet that Amir/Ed will be checking Howard during key stretches of the game, and probably doing a better job of it than Bargs. I also like Howard checking either of them on defense, since they live in the paint, and can substitute in and out quickly to give Dwight fresh legs to constantly deal with. Not saying they will score on him at will, but they are active and could force Dwight into some early foul trouble.
Edge: Toronto

Center
It gave me the warm-fuzzies when Triano decided to flex some coaching muscle, and benching Bargnani when it was clear he was hurting the team. Lets hope Bargnani got the message loud and clear. That said, Bargnani isn’t the kind of the player who can fall back on other aspects of his game when the shots aren’t falling. 90% of his effectiveness comes from his scoring, and if he’s not shooting well, then he’s as useless as Arsenalist cruising at Hemingways on a Friday night.

The shot needs to be there tonight from the tip, since Bass/Anderson have no chance checking him on the perimeter. He can shoot over both, and back both down into the paint for short turn-around-half-hooks. Even off the dribble, no one on the Magic can check the guy. He’s got so much offensive ability, it’s really comical he doesn’t average 25 a game consistently. A lot of that comes from his sick tendencies of stepping inside the arc and launching low percentage jumpers; his efficiency crashes when this happens.
Edge: Magic

Keys to the Game

Defend the Pick-n-Roll Aggressively
It’s going to come hard, and with a lot of furry.  The guy being screened will have to fight through them, and the guy defending the picker will have to hedge and buy some time for the defense to recover and set itself.

Perimeter Defense
Dwight Howard commands so much attention, that Magic shooters get a lot of looks, good ones, from the perimeter. Pick-n-roll defense is one aspect of this, another is how many doubles we through at Howard in the paint. The Magic are surprisingly 25th in the league in assists, so their offense is a lot of catch-and-shoots, which doesn’t give a lot of time for defensive rotations to play catch-up.

Don’t Give Hedo any Satisfaction
Easier said than done with the team he’s playing on, but I don’t want to see him smiling and laughing it up because of he’s on route to a triple-double.

The Line

The gamblers have the Magic as 11.5 point favourites, with an over/under of 207. The Magic play a slow pace, but are deliberate and damn efficient at it. The Raptors can’t spot them 10 points to start the game, since they will grind the game to slower pace, and pick us apart. Not much hope here tonight; just need to play our game and keep developing good habits. Since we got the Heat tomorrow night, you might see Triano shut things down if the Magic run away with this early to keep guys as fresh as possible for Bosh & co.

It’s weird but the loss in Miami had a satisfying flavor to it. It’s difficult for a team to go 2-0 on the Florida swing and on the rare occasion you actually pull it off, they’ll talk about you on NBA TV for days. The Jazz did it last week and it has supposedly turned their season around. The swing might have done the same for the Raptors, who represented themselves well on their travels. An impressive win in Orlando was followed by going toe-to-toe with the Heat who got enough star-calls to see them through. Not to say that the Heat weren’t deserving of the win, just stating that the refs don’t need to call ticky-tack fouls to make sure they do. And not sure where I heard this, but somebody referred to Miami’s “Big Three” as “One and a bit” which brought a smile to this blogger’s face.

The little roadtrip also confirmed things we suspected, Arse’s man Julian Wright made a case for more minutes and Joey Dorsey showed that he can pull the boards down with the best of them. Kleiza’s poor season has been magnified by Wright’s performances, and it’s easy to see the balance that Wright’s defense brings to the lineup. Wright’s defense was to be expected, his creativity on the drive wasn’t. Wright’s demonstrated some good basketball IQ with his decision-making, and even though he shot poorly against Miami, they were shots that were presented to him and if the Raptors had any chance at that game, somebody like him had to make them. When Kleiza does return, he should have to work for his minutes and nothing should be handed to him.

Tonight it’s the Wizards who fall into the category of teams we are “supposed to beat”. I’ll subscribe to that belief because John Wall is injured and he would have been the most talented player on the floor (again!), who also happens to be a point guard which happens to be the position we get torched at. Wall is averaging close to an impressive 19 points and 10 assists a game, but his shooting has been very mediocre at 43.9% (second on the team in attempts behind Blatche). His 2-6 Wizards haven’t taken advantage of playing the third easiest schedule in the league, and the problem has surprisingly been offense – they’re scoring a league-worst 99.1 points per 100 possessions. The shot distribution seems to be quite wonky as well with four guys (Blatche, Arenas, Wall and Thornton) dominating the ball. The Wizards look to be a classic case of four guys trying to get theirs.

The games in Washington have had a couple great finishes of late. There’s the Mo Pete shot with the guy yelling Canada Sucks in the background, and there’s also the Not Possible! call made possible by Anthony Parker. It’s hard to believe this, but Chris Bosh has actually delivered in the clutch on occasion, the last time it happened was in Washington.

Injuries

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Day-to-day
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Day-to-day

Washington
Andray Blatche – Knee, Will play
Yi Jianlin – Bruised Knee, Will Play
Update: John Wall – walking around on crutches, doubtful

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Wall
This is one of the games I had circled on my calendar; John Wall’s in town. You get a certain amount of hype with every new rookie coming into the league, but this one hit the ground running. I know I had my doubts; first of all he did play in Kentucky right? Wall hit the ground running, and probably the best young point guard to come out of college in a very hard time based on his early performance. He does everything: scores, passes (5th in the NBA), rebounds, plays defense (1st in steals in the NBA). Yea, it’s going to be one of those games tonight. Notice anything about his shot chart?

The kid is either scoring from the paint, or from the perimeter; no mid-range game. If I’m picking my poison tonight, it’s going to give him every shot he wants, and protect the paint. He is quick enough, and sees the floor well enough that he can be devastating off the bounce. Not sure how to keep him out of the paint thought, that’s for Triano & Co to figure out. I wont even mention Arenas comes off the bench at the point, the guy had 30pts against the Bulls on the weekend with 7 treys. There’s really no situation where the Raptors have an advantage at the point tonight, we gotta take our lumps here, keep the damage to a minimum and win match-ups at the other positions.
Edge: Wall

SG – DeRozan vs Hinrich
The good news is that DeRozan will be able to flex his athleticism tonight; the bad news, Hinrich plays fundamental. DeRozan is coming off a ridiculous weekend where he averaged 23.5pts 6.5rebs 2.5ast against some pretty solid competition. Hinrich is playing out of position in Washington (Wall had the keys to kingdom handed to him), but is still contributing at a pretty solid clip. He’s knocking down shots, moving the ball around, and playing some disruptive defense alongside Wall with those long-monkey arms of his. There’s no reason DeRozan shouldn’t attack off the dribble like he has been of late. Hinrich is a solid shooter, and if DeRozan runs over to double, he will stick jumper after jumper; he’s done it to the Raptors for years now. Hopefully the defense rotates properly, and no one gets hit with a perfect John Wall pass for an open J tonight.

Edge: DeRozan

SF – Weems vs Thornton
Raise your hand if you think Weems has earned the starting gig at small forward? The guy has really grown on me the last couple weeks, mostly because he is playing a different kind of game, by not forcing shots when he gets the ball and letting the game come to him. Thornton is a a solid scorer who has a pretty good jumper, and finishes nicely at the rim.

He doesn’t move the ball around well and makes pretty rough decisions with the ball. Sonny can have a solid night if he takes it to him off, since Al plays pretty rough defense. This is a pretty good match-up for Sonny since he’s always in attack mode, and there’s nothing Thornton can do about it. Something to note, Thornton missed the last game with a stomach ailment, and may not play tonight, if this is the case, the Wizards could start a 3-guard combo of Wall, Arenas and Hinrich, which I don’t really want to see. There’s a great deal of play making and shooting in that lot.
Edge: Weems

PF – Evans vs Blatche
Evans missed the last game against the Heat with the flu, and needs to be fully back to contend with Blatche (and McGee when Bargnani loses focus). If Evans isn’t 100%, I actually like Amir a lot better for this match-up since he can match Blatche pound-for-pound in length and athleticism, and make Andray play on both ends of the floor. Regardless, Blatch needs to be taken seriously since he’s in the early goings of a career year. The guy has improved every year since he got into the league, and is a real force right now. The Raptors are much deeper at forward than Washington, and after their starters, they can only trot out Yi Jianlin, and a couple other no-names that I’m sure we can handle. The key will be to take it to Blatche early, and force him to swing his arms around some and pick up some fouls.

He’s a pretty sweet shooting big man, who can step outside and pull Evans with him, taking him off the defensive glass. This is a big area of concern for me, since Evans (and Amir) protect take protecting our own glass very seriously. I like Evans to bang around with him, I like Amir to keep the intensity going. I like this match-up a lot for sheer entertainment, and the different looks we can throw opposing power forwards through the game.
Edge: Even

C – Bargnani vs McGee
The Wizards starting court is a big heap of long athletic dudes. Blatche lives in the paint, which is where is where Bargnani is most effective in defending. I worry that Wall rip by the defenders and force Bargnani to half-commit on rotating over, and allow some easy scores, but I digress…

Offensively, Bargnani should get lots of open looks since Blatche will have trouble keeping up with him on the perimeter, however, playing in the post may not be the best strategy since Blatche is so long and challenges so many shots in the blocks.
Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Play Big
The Raptors have a deeper front court, and can get the Wizard in trouble if Blatche and McGee get into some foul trouble. Triano can throw wave-after-wave of big man combinations until he finds a combination that keeps this lot locked down. The Wizards are the worst rebounding team in the league, do I have to spell this out? Attack the paint, crash the boards, and we should win this aspect of the game handedly.

Keep Wall Out of The Bloody Paint
Give the guy room and force him to put the team on his back and shoot his way to a win. Once he gets going off the dribble, he has the ability to hit the open guy in the right spots. Wall is prone to turnovers, so forcing him into a double on the wings (keep him out of the paint) could force him to make some bad decisions.

Don’t Give Arenas a Reason to Smile
The guy isn’t a happy camper. Sure he’s playing well since coming back from his suspension, but he’s not smiling. If the game isn’t fun for him, his motivations might not be there. I know this sounds stupid, but folks play better when they are having a good time.

No Need to Double Anyone
Force Wall into a double, but don’t send someone running at him. Let Evans/Johnson play Blatche straight up, force him to turn into a double team, but don’t send anyone running at him. I don’t want to see the Wizards rotate the ball until one of them is in a good spot to take a shot; they share the ball well (15th in the league), but the damage can be minimized if they get into a pass-and-pop situation.

The Line

No odds have been registered for this game, so it’s a toss up at this point if you’re a betting person. Considering the Raptors are on the road, this looks favourably on them to eke out a win tonight. I’m feeling pretty good about this considering how we’ve been playing of late. I do have a feeling that Wall will wreak havoc tonight though, as long as he’s not make others better around him, we should be fine.

I checked in with Surya Fernandez from Hot Hot Hoops to talk about the Heat and the newly formed commission (Bosh, Wade, LeBron and Joe Johnson). We’re still getting weak trade offers for Bosh; I guess a 24pt 11reb a night kind of guy has no value around the league. It’s actually making me question what I think I know about basketball (which granted isn’t very much since I thought the Suns were going to be thumped buy the Spurs in the 2nd round).

Without even making a reach, Riley has a lot of options to pair Wade with an elite level forward this summer (Bosh, Boozer and Stoudemire), so you can expect him to jump at the first option regardless of who he really covets. I’m going out on a limb and predicting Bosh doesn’t end up in Miami this summer, but that the Heat will be a 50 win team next season with the additions Riley makes.

Sam Holako: What do you make of this free agent commission Wade, LeBron, Bosh and Johnson have put together to discuss their fates? Seems sinister, and frankly, I’m a little disappointed about it – whatever happened to being a man?

Surya Fernandez: It’s all a matter of perception. Toronto needs to find another willing team to do a sign and trade should Bosh want to go elsewhere to get something decent in return and start a new era. The Heat have been treading water for the last couple of years and are finally free of that huge chunk of salary cap that dated back from Shaq’s last contract extension. Wade doesn’t sound like he’s leaving so there’s little doubt that he’ll try to do some recruiting at this summit. There’s nothing else for him to talk about. I don’t mind players that are friends getting together and talking about something this important in their lives and careers. Maybe they all go their separate ways and nothing much comes of it. Just imagine what owners and GMs talk about when they all get together. It must be worse than a sewing circle.

SH: With Wade staying, I look at the team, and don’t see much of anything there: Chalmers is a nice player, Beasley has talent, I’m a fan of Joel Anthony, but outside of that, what does Miami do to round out the roster? What does Miami do to become relevant again?

SF: o question it’s a huge question mark with that many contracts clearing the books. But there is a lot of flexibility that comes with that. Udonis Haslem and Dorell Wright are solid players that can be retained or used for sign and trades to secure a point guard, the Heat’s biggest need. Chalmers and Beasley can be traded but if they stay will provide depth.

I’m not a fan of simply giving out max contracts to just anybody and I would pass on Amar’e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer and Joe Johnson because other teams that may miss out on the bigger names will be offered a max contract by a team like the Knicks, Clippers or Nets. If you can sign James or Bosh then that’s great but the Heat could also use the rest of the $10-12 million to round out a roster with some quality big men and long range shooters. I just wrote (Affordable free agents that the Miami Heat should pursue) about nine free agents that the Heat should go after if they went this path.

Another method that isn’t discussed much is to hold on to some of the cap space to facilitate trades with other teams after the season starts leading up to the trading deadline. Riley said last month that the makeover process could take up to 18 months. Teams will want to shed contracts (like the Marcus Camby or Eric Maynor trades) and the Heat could absorb them easily (and perhaps acquire a few draft picks in the process) to get some more depth leading up to a playoff run.

SH: That’s quite the list, what stands out for me is Oberto and Foye. With the Wizard probably shopping Arenas; what would you think about engineering a trade to land Arenas and Oberto for cap space and Haslem, still having enough cap space to sign a Bosh? That would be a lethal backcourt.

SF: On paper it would be a lethal backcourt. The problem is that the Wizards on paper before the start of this season were thought of as a playoff team. First you have that huge contract that in and of itself would be drawback even if it was the Arenas of a few years ago. Then you have the health issues that he never seemed to have recovered from then the gun incident that derailed the entire franchise. I’d stay away from him.

If Miami wants to try it out with an oft-injured player past his prime I’d rather take on Elton Brand and net the second overall pick too from the Sixers. His contract is just as bad as Arenas but at least then you could rationalize it by having two players who combined make “X” amount of money because of this trade. Both could be useful immediately for the Heat if Brand is at least healthy enough to contribute like Jermaine O’Neal did this past season (putting aside the Celtics playoffs). And the Heat will have an awesome rookie talent at that pick.

SH: Philly was my next option; I really think Brand will surprise folks once he gets out of Philly. Make me an offer for Bosh in a S+T.

SF: You can have your first round pick back from the Marion-O’Neal trade plus another first rounder, Cook and Chalmers (who both need a change of scenery as well). It’s better than losing him for nothing. Offering Beasley as well would be the last resort since Bosh might be persuaded to just simply sign in Miami, not have to pay income tax and the Heat could keep those players and picks I just offered to your Raptors and send them to another team for a solid player who makes less like Rudy Gay. I like Bosh but if the Raptors want to trade him to the Lakers for oft-injured Andrew Bynum then be my guest. The Heat would then go after Stoudemire and maybe Boozer.

SH: I think it’s safe to say he wont leave $30mil guaranteed on the table, so thanks for giving us back our 1st rounder, lol. Can you talk about Riley a bit. Heard he may want to take over as coach again, dropping Erik Spoelstra like he did SVG, if the Heat land another elite player to pair with Wade. Is this just all chatter, or are there some legs to these rumours?

SF: Riley threw that out there as bait for free agents to consider should they want to directly play for him. But even though he only would consider it if he was asked to now it’s hard to not to see Spoelstra as a lame duck after saying that. Quite frankly, I think the Heat has done enough for Erik since hiring him to cut video back in 1995 so I really wouldn’t mind it if the Heat had a veteran seasoned coach going forward. If it has to be Riley so be it. People complain enough that the Heat are somewhat wasting the last couple of years of Wade’s prime and I don’t see Spoelstra as a coach to take your team deep in the playoffs. He might be good at analyzing videos and preparing his players but his in-game decisions, robotic substitution patterns and poor play-calling in late game situations have been the subject of tough criticism from diehard Heat fans.

Van Gundy was squeezed out because Shaq did not want to be coached by him anymore after the Pistons series in ’05. That’s what can happen when teams employ superstars and GMs and owners have to choose whether to listen to them or not. I’m not defending Riley (and I’m positive he smelled a golden opportunity to collect another coaching ring) but sometimes it’s not as simple an issue as it may seem from outsiders looking in. The end result back then was a ring, let’s see what happens this time around.

SH: From the outside looking in, it seemed as though Riley created the atmosphere for SVG to ultimately get canned. Regardless, he was the right man for the job. Could we interest you in Turkoglu?

SF: Agreed but SVG really did muck things up a bit at the end of the Pistons series though. It sure looked like a slimy move on Riley’s part but it sure worked out. Not surprising Riley might consider jumping back in if the roster starts looking like championship material this year.

The Heat only should take Hedo if they can get Marcus Banks back!

SH: So the Heat tried to trade Beasley for Dooling, and were denied (they say he plays a very similar game to Yi); why is Beasley’s value so low?

SF: There is no accuracy to that report. It came out of a podcast with nobody to corroborate it. Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel has already confirmed that the Heat never made such an offer.

There’s no comparison between Beasley and Yi. It’s almost laughable. If you’re referring to Sebastian Pruiti’s comparison to them on Nets Are Scorching all I can tell you is that stats don’t tell the whole story. Stats don’t speak about how his unexperienced coach has never put Beasley in a situation to succeed on the court, how Beasley has never had a consistent role in this team or how he’s never had a chance to play with a decent playmaking point guard since he arrived in the NBA only two years ago.

Quite frankly I’m glad his value is perceived to be low so maybe he’ll stick around. Maybe it’s his personality or maybe it’s the off-court issues. I don’t know how many players in the 4-5 million dollar range could put up 15 points and 6 and a half rebounds in less than 30 minutes while playing in an offense that is solely geared towards Dwyane Wade. Power forward should not be a position of concern for the Heat with so many holes to plug so I can’t really justify carving out such a huge slice of the cap space for Bosh or Boozer.

Yes, of course he needs to work on his game and his defense (as should all young NBA players strive to do this summer). But give him a better coach, more minutes without fear of immediately being pulled off the court because of an error, and a true point guard who can run plays for him that can give him some easier looks closer to the basket. Then we can talk about whether he’s a bust or not. I don’t know how much more value the Heat could get out of that position.

The Raptors are in a the middle of a dire 5 game losing streak and things are approaching crisis level. Effort on the defensive end has been garbage (any defense that has been played is incidental/accidental). They aren’t doing anything that speaks of any desire to win. Sure, we can score, but when most of your guys need the ball to be effective, and the coach can’t find the right recipe, things go from bad to worse. Welcome to the 2nd team in a row that Colangelo has sold to this city, yay for us.

So that Hawks game was killer. I regret not being able to muster anything after that one, but I had nothing. Literally sat in front of my computer and stared at my screen saver then gave up. What could I say? That effort shouldn’t have to be asked for? That being a professional athlete means you are being payed to compete at a high level every single time you step on the floor? That you can’t make excuses when you have actually gone through a training camp? That when you look at yourself in the mirror, you need to be proud of the guy staring back at you? That when you get backed into a corner, you should scratch/kick/claw your way out and not crouch into the fetal position and hope it stops burning?

Triano needs to figure out a formula that works. If that means putting the ball in Hedo’s hands, so be it. If that means cursing out Bargnani till he cries, do it. If that means bringing Calderon off the bench, jam on. Maybe we sit DeRozan. Maybe we start Amir. At this point, everything is an option since the current plan doesn’t work.

Tonight the Raptors head into Washington to play the Wizards for the second time in three games. The last time these guys played, the Raptors suffered a 4th quarter collapse that ultimately was lost on three very bad decisions by Jack. Sure he had a great game, but he Ben Gordoned us (he shot the team into a hole, then tried to shoot us out).

The Match-up

The Point: Calderon/Jack need to attack Arenas constantly and aggressively. The guy is a poor defender who seemingly doesn’t have the foot speed he used to have.  Jose started the last game 5-6 from the field, but then the ball was taken out of his hands for most of the rest of the game – can’t have that again. If the guy is hot, keeping feeding him, makes sense, no? Jack needs to do more driving and less shooting. It’s not like he’s shooting that well, 42% from the field isn’t stellar. Last game, Arenas was able to work himself into the game, after a slow start. Can’t let that happen either. Intensity and focus on the guy. He was scoring 29 a game and calling 40 point outbursts just a couple seasons ago.

The Skill: DeRozan and Young were not a factor in the last game at all. In fact, none of the 2-guards on either side contributed much of anything, not that they needed too. It would be good to see DeRozan follow up a career game against Atlanta with a solid performance tonight, same with Belinelli who was playing terribly until dropping 19 on the Hawks. These guys should really have no problem taking it to Young/Foye.

The Wing: Had Turkoglu not shot so poorly the last game, things may have been different. He got good looks on Butler, just couldn’t knock them down. This was an even match-up for most of the game with neither player really going off. As long as Butler is under control (I considered 19pts 7rebs under control), then I’m happy. Just shoot better ok? Antoine Wright as we came to learn yesterday has the worst PER in the league (3.1). Morris Peterson is 2nd worse, but 60% better. This should tell us all something in regards to what kind of shots he should be taking – none.

The Big: Bosh showed up for the 2nd quarter, and took the rest of the game off against the Wizzers. Still, he had 22pts 14rebs, but when you go 7-22 from the field, you aren’t helping anyone. After scoring 2 on Wednesday against the Hawks (yes, I said 2), you know he will be fierce from the tip. That fire needs to be directed at Jamison who played like he always does against the Ratpors: really freaking good – 30pts 12rebs. Granted, some of that was against Bargnani, but the majority of it came against our franchise. Jamison needs to be kept under control, not sure how, but that’s not my job, it’s Triano’s…oh wait… Amir gets spot duty, and I really have nothing to say but that I hope he gets more minutes, and keeps doing what he has done so far this season.

The Strong: I really-really hate Brendan Haywood. The guy has owned us for years, and always puts up huge numbers: 15pts 9rebs 3blks last game. For a guy who has a limited offensive arsenal, I wonder why Bargnani doesn’t do a better job of staying between him and the rim? That’s all he needs to do. Seriously, if he can box out, and put his arms up when Haywood is going up strong, good things will happen since most of the damage Haywood inflicts was on the offensive boards (he had 7 offensive rebounds last game, and probably 7 dunks/layups right afterwards). I shudder to think what Haywood would have done had Bargs not grabbed 7 defensive boards of his own. All Bargnani should be doing is standing between Haywood with an elbow in his chest, at all times. Do it.

Injuries

Raptors
Reggie Evans

Wizards
Mike Miller
Javaris Crittenton

The Line

The Wizards are 4 point favourites with an over/under of 216.

Simulation

Visser’s sims are 14-6 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 105-102 Raptors loss.

Prediction

My goodness am I defeated. I’d like to say a Raptor win, but I can’t. I don’t see how one day, and some tape-watching is going to help anything. This team needs to be read the riot act. 103-94 Wizards.

Come swing by the RR Forums and check out our game thread. You want Twitter? Live Chat? ESPN Daily Dime (will post link as soon as it goes up)? We got you son!

Also, if you’re local a 416/905er, come hang in person with us tonight at the Sports Centre Cafe for Raptor Fans Friday.

Calderon was gunning from the opening tip: attacking Arenas off the dribble, finishing at the rim, lobbing alley-oops to DeRozan, hitting his jumper, my goodness. It was a very fluid attack. He didn’t force anything, JC just took what the defense gave him which was space, lots of it. Arenas had zero interest in playing defense, and our boy took advantage. Bargnani looked great too, his jumper was on, but more importantly, he was all over the boards on both ends of the floor. Somebody had to make up for the fact that Bosh was a miserable 0-6 with only 1 rebound. Calderon and Bargnani combined for 8-13 from the field, the rest of the Raptors were 2-14, disgusting. It all boiled down to poor playmaking by our playmakers, 2 assists in the quarter. 2 assists. Think about it.

The second quarter belonged to Bosh, who was an animal in the paint. Every one of his made field goals was inside 8 feet, except for one open jumper from the elbow. Say what you want about him, but he isn’t a finesse player anymore, not with him living in the paint for the most part of every single game. The problem in the second was utilization, sure Bosh was on, but Calderon and Bargnani who carried us in the 1st disappeared. For some reason, we had moved away from those two, and didn’t even think twice. They both had one shot that they hit (a layup and a dunk, guess who got what), and that was it. They were so efficient in the first quarter, but Triano decides not to use them in the second. Smart. At least Bosh got 18, yay.

Heading into the 3rd, we all fully expected the collapse, but other things were at play, namely basketball. Turkoglu creates an open three for Calderon, he nails it. Bargnani creates an open three for Hedo, he nails it. Calderon pushes the ball on the break, sticks a layup in transition, 8-4 run to start the quarter. I liked Bargnani all game, but I really liked him in the 3rd. Those trialling jumpers he sticks are daggers. They hurt, you could see it on Saunders’ face. Then it happened, not as dramatic and stretched out as in games passed, but the Raptors go scoreless for 3:40. No shot attempts closer then 17 feet. Antoine Wright with two of them. I don’t know how to stress this, but Wright should never shoot the ball. Never ever? Never ever! The Wizard score 7 points in that scoreless stretch, but the Raptors responded: 10-2 run in the last minute and a half to finish the 3rd, taking a 5 point lead into the 4th.

The 4th…the Raptors lost the 4th, but this wasn’t the story, Jack was. We have ourselves our very own Ben Gordon, the poor-mans Raptors version. A guy who digs us into holes, and tries to get us out, but more often then not, doesn’t. The rub is that he isn’t as good as Gordon. Yea, he hits some big shots, clutch even, in the 4th, but had he not, he would have been under the bus. No?

• Jack hits a three to push the lead to Raptors up 82-77 – Good
• Jack hits a layup to push the lead to Raptors up 85-81 – Good
• 13 seconds into the shot clock, Jack forces a jumper, no one there to get the rebound. Arenas hits a jumper on the other end Tied 85-85 – Bad
• Jack forces a three out of rhythm with the the rest of the team Tied 85-85 – Bad
• Jack draws foul and hits both from the line Raptors down 87-90 – Good (this ended a stretch of 3 scoreless minutes for the Raptors where the game was actually lost)
• 12 seconds into the shot clock, and the the Raptors all out of position, Jack misses a jumper Raptors down 89-93 – Bad
• 8 seconds into the shot clock, Jack hits a three Raptors down 94-97 – Good
• Jack draws a foul and hits both from the line Raptors down 97-99 – Good
• Jack hits a layup out of a timeout Raptors down 99-102 – doesn’t matter

So yea, he had some big plays, but his poor decision making directly contributed to us losing the game. When you shoot that early in the shot clock, it better be a damn good shot, actually, it better be a layup. Jacks shots weren’t, and they killed us. We had opportunities to take the lead, or extend the lead, but the offense wasn’t run. People were out of position and on a night where the Raptors were rebounding well on the offensive glass, that was a disaster. Out of those 9 plays, 3 of them were bad, but those three were bad judgment by a point guard who shouldn’t be making the same mistake three times.

What also killed us down the stretch was Hedo being asked to create for himself to score with the Raptors down 101-97. He loses the ball off the dribble, and fouls out of frustration, Jamison hits both, sealing the game. The guy is a playmaker, why Triano continually asks him to attempt to take his man off the dribble is beyond me. Whatever, you can’t lose 3 out of 4 quarters and expect Turkoglu to win the game for you, doesn’t work like that. There is so much more that needs to be said: the lineup to finish the game, not enough minutes for Johnson, what exactly is this Belinelli and how the f*** did we end up with him, but I’m a beaten down piece of meat that has nothing left.

Four Keys to Losing

Shooting the Ball Well
Bosh and Turkoglu were a combined 10-33 from the field, horrible. Nobody aside from Bargnani, Calderon and Jack, who were a combined 23-37 from the field, showed up to play. What the f*** happened to our great offensive players? At least we scored 102 huh Colangelo?
Raptors – 47.6%
Wizards – 51.1%

Taking Care of the Ball
Washington took care of the ball, but the Raptors didn’t. 1.2 assist to turnover ratio for the Raptors. Pathetic.
Raptors – 16.1%
Wizards – 10.1%

Offensive Rebounding
This was the one thing we did well, and the only good thing we did to keep the game as close as it was. Still, we conceded 11 offensive rebounds on the other end, that mostly ended up in dunks.
Raptors – 28.8%
Wizards – 22.9%

Getting to the Free Throw Line
The Wizard got there more, and had they converted a decent percentage of them, this game wouldn’t have been so close. The line has always been kind to the Raptors, but we would have needed to go to the line 50 times to have had won that game.
Raptors – 32.1%
Wizards – 38%

Player Impact

Bosh had the numbers, and seems to have lit up the chart a bit more, but Bargnani gets the nod for an efficient game on both ends of the floor. Turkoglu gets third. Doesn’t matter really. My stat of the night was Weems, who was a -2 in 0 minutes of play, lol. The Atlanta pre-game will be up after lunch.

We talked about Triano’s system in Monday’s podcast, and how it wasn’t really working, and what he is going to do about it. Well we got our answer yesterday during practice when he was asked about it:

The stuff that we’re doing is basic. Do we think about tweaking things a little bit? Yes, but at the same time we were committed to this at training camp and want to give it a chance. If we need to tweak it at some point that’s what we’ll do.

I worry that we wont make any changes until it is too late for the Raptors this season. Triano doesn’t seem to be a change-on-the-fly kind of guy, which is ok because not many coaches are fluid in what they do. The good ones are on the good teams already I suppose. Bosh doesn’t seem to be worried, which is great, and he echoed what AltRaps said in our podcast yesterday that it is about that few minutes of horrible play in the 3rd that needs to be fixed:

Those five or six minutes, that is kind of what dictates the game. Even if we lose a game by 20 points, the five points the other team might go on a 10-run and not look back, and next thing you know they have confidence and they’re hitting everything. I think we just have to pay attention to detail the whole, entire game.

This is the first of two games against Washington this week, with the Raptors hosting them tonight at the ACC. The Wizards got pounded by Charlotte on Saturday and are having the same sorts of woes the Raptors do, namely energy and flatness in stretches.

The Match-up

The Point: Arenas is finally back after missing two seasons, and he is looking good early. He seems a step slow from the two games I’ve caught so far, but he seems to be playing a more mature game (in control). I, ughh, don’t know what to say about Calderon. 2pts 7ast against Nash on Sunday in some of the most uninspired ball I have seen – but in his defense, he had to switch onto Stoudemire off of every single screen which couldn’t have helped. Jack has been a little better, but only because he attacks the rim more. Otherwise his jumper sucks and he isn’t doing much to win the starting role. Even though I expect both of these guys to turn it around tonight, the Wizards back-court has quick reserves in Boykins and Foye who will be a handful when Arenas is resting during posting season highs in everything.
The Edge: Washington

The Talent: I would like to see plays run for DeRozan. Triano needs to utilize his athleticism (Jose has been tossing him perfect oops lately) more. I actually look forward to watching DeRozan and Young chase each other around the court tonight. Not expecting big things from either, but young athletic kids kids are always fun to watch. Belinelli is due a break-out game after three horrible ones in a row, and should be getting some good looks against the Wizards bench who are the type of folk that haven’t been doing much lately, but have the ability to light up the Raptors. I can see Foye going off today, he has done well against us in the past (who hasn’t though right?).
The Edge: Toronto

The  Wing: Turk, we hardly know you, but we want to see more. Tonight though, you have your hands full with Butler. Less shooting and more driving/dishing off the pick-n-roll, I think that’s your style for the rest of your time in Toronto. The jumper; take it when you’re open, but don’t look for it unless you’re inside 15ft. Just remember, Butler is good, really good, and you can’t be floating off him, or he will make you pay. Wright should never shoot the ball, ever. I hate him shooting more then I hate Jack shooting.
The Edge: Washington

The Big: Bosh’s match-up with Jamison is going to dictate who wins this game. I hate to say it, but Bosh needs to pay careful attention to this ‘old’ man, he still has lots of life in his legs. After missing the first few weeks of the season, Jamison is putting up all-star numbers again (21pts 9rebs), and will be looking to atone for his wretched game against the Bobcats on Saturday. Bad news for us, but the good news is that he has to deal with Bosh on the defensive end of the court. Jamison has made a living of rebounding the hell out of the ball against the Raptors, but I like Bosh to keep him under control off the glass. Our boy has been great at boxing out and rising above everyone to rip those bad boys down. Johnson will need to keep doing what he’s been doing so far this season. He holds it down, and will have his hands full with Blatche off the bench. Blatche will probably get Johnson into foul trouble, which will give Triano a tougher time managing minutes for his forwards.
The Edge: Toronto

The Strong: I hate Brendan Haywood…the guy is the poster child for Raptor killer. He has probably had his best games of his career against us. Unfortunately, he is also rebounding the hell out of the ball, which Bargnani will need to deal with. This needs to be a big area of concentration for Bargnani tonight since Haywood is a league leader in boards, and McGee is a long-athletic freak who also has a nose for the ball. Pops will probably see some minutes because of his athleticism, but who knows, and frankly who cares if Bargnani doesn’t make a commitment to rebound tonight. Yes yes, he will get his on offense, but if we don’t limit Washington’s offensive rebounding, we can kiss this one goodbye.
The Edge: Toronto

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans

Washington
Nobody

The Line

The Raptors are a 7 point favourite with an over/under of 212

Simulation

Visser’s sims are 13-5 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 114-92 Raptor win:

Andrea Bargnani had the best game of his NBA career, scoring 36 points (12-of-17 from the field, 5-of-5 from deep) and adding 11 rebounds to lead Toronto to a 114-92 win over the Wizards.

Bargnani picked up the slack for Chris Bosh, who struggled from the field but still managed 14 points and 15 boards in the win. Hedo Turkoglu had 19 points, six rebounds and four assists and Jose Calderon had 10 points and seven assists. Jarrett Jack added 15 off the bench for the Raptors.

Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler carried the scoring load for Washington, scoring 24 and 20, respectively. Gilbert Arenas struggled from the field, finishing with 11 on 5-of-17.

Prediction

Who am I to dispute a career night by Bargs? Raptors take it 108-89.

It wasn’t an exciting one, in fact, the best part about the game was that it was coming to an end, but then the last half (or so) of the 4th quarter happened, and we saw something we aren’t used to – the Raptors held it together and pulled one out. How many times over the years have the Raptors trailed heading into the 4th, and won the game? I’m sure it’s happened, but I can’t think of any many. Even though it is pre-season, and the bench is playing most of the game, we saw our boys play hard for the 4th game in 6 days, and bring the pre-season record to 2-2. like These games are good for one thing: to see what the guys on the 2nd and 3rd units can do with the minutes they are handed, and for this one, they did pretty damn good.

Bosh had his minutes managed again, getting eased back into play. While he was on the floor though, his play from the low post was the best I have seen from him. That conditioning from the hips onwards he talked about from the summer, lets him set AND keep position in the block. A luxury he hasn’t had, ever.

You hear about those games that build character for a team, and I really believe this is one of them. Sans Bosh/Calderon/Hedo/Bargnani contributing anything major, our boys weathered the loss of Weems (the best player in pre-season) and won against a team that will be gunning for us in the regular season. Can’t ask for much more, other then an exciting game.

The Good

After losing the most important quarter (3rd) of the game, the Raptors held it together and won the 4th 30-11 locking up the game. Sure it was the 2nd/3rd unit, but they done-did-right. Amir Johnson and Patrick O’Bryant used their length and athleticism to change the game on the boards. Thing of beauty. If the toe jam is no big deal, Weems looks more and more like a regular contributor then the 3rd forward off the bench.

Where would we be this pre-season without Sonny Weems? Dude is everything to everyone at every point of the game. Before leaving the game with an injured toe, he crashed the boards hard, went coast to coast and dunked in traffic, came off a screen and stuck a J from the elbow, all while playing defense. Hopefully the toe isn’t serious.

DeMar had his best game by far, playing 36mins and dropping 19pts 3rebs 1blck and a +17. I love this kid, he fills a very real need this franchise has had over the years: a slasher. The fact that he isn’t a great shooter will benefit him in the long run. You can always take 500 jumpers a day and improve that shot, but while that goes down, he can work on attacking that rim. We saw some maturing from the kid today. He wasn’t trying to outjump/outrun folks, but used his athleticism to get him better looks, and attack the basket. He had a putback dunk off a missed shot, a dunk in transition, and grabbed an offensive board for an easy layup.

So I ate a big heaping serving of crow when I called Johnson inconsistent. He got at the whole time he was in the game, and really changed the flow in the 4th. 12rebs 3blks 5pfs in 23mins. That’s what you call getting at it. Oh, he chipped in 7pts and two monstrous dunks, one a put-back off a missed free throw that took 3 years off Flip Saunders life. The kid just needs to work on his fouls, but in doing so, he might not be as affective on the boards and on defense. The left hand and the right.

In what could be considered a turning of the guard, and a validation of one of a few astute people have mentioned previously, Belinelli was the best playmaker of the day. He only dropped 3 dimes, but on 3 different occasions that I could remember, he penetrated from the wing position and kicked out to a wide open shooter *cough* Jose *cough* who just missed the shot.

Evans shot a bit more then I would like (every single one of his shots exact the layup he drew a foul on), but he hit the boards and was vocal. Tough dude. Like seeing that.

The Bad

You can’t win every quarter, but the Raptors almost seemed to lie down in the 3rd. The lack of aggressiveness and really bad decision making continued from the 2nd quarter, but got worse. Jose had his only good couple of plays at the end of the 3rd when he was moved to off-guard. He drove the ball to the hoop and hit a trey in two straight possessions.

Calderon…I know he is getting back into game shape after a full summer off, grabbed more rebounds then he had assists, but he had 12pts on pretty decent shooting 3-4 from the field if you don’t count his performance from beyond the arc (1-4). He did look good as an off-guard at the end of the 3rd. I worry about him long term if it turns out that Belinelli can actually run the point, and the Raptors get that play-making we all so desperately want out of Hedo.

Jack could have been a bit more assertive, but you can excuse his ughh…none aggressiveness since he had his hands full with Arenas when Agent Zero started to go off on Calderon. You had to like how he played when teamed up with JC at the point. Am really interested to see that dynamic during the regular season.

The Ugly

It was a boring game. We saw the Raptors cycle between sharing the ball around the perimeter without creating any meaningful scoring opportunities and holding on to the ball, bringing the entire offense to a screeching halt.

Bosh was badly shown up by Jamison who had his way from the tip. We can excuse him seeing as he has been injured the and missed training camp, but we would have liked to see him get a bit better from the last outing, which was a pretty good 1st showing. Fortunately, this wont continue, and Bosh will get bounce back…hopefully.

Finally, my X-Factor for the year, Bargnani, had a terrible showing. Sure he grabbed 5 rebounds, and he looked pretty decent early in the 1st quarter when attacking the rim, but he just plain disappeared. If I didn’t look at the boxscore, I would have guessed he played no more then 10 minutes (he played 25).

Keys to the Game

What stood out for me the most, and got me super excited was how the Raptors won this game:

• The Raptors out-rebounded Washington 49-41 (13-10 on the offensive boards). The bench contributed 27, with Johnson and Evans grabbing 12 and 7 respectively.
• 90% (36-40) shooting from the line. That’s how you put points on the board when your jumpers aren’t falling.
• Sonny Weems started it from the wing 4pts 6rebs 1ast in the 1st quarter, and DeRozan finished it in the 4th. How much have we missed that slashing wing play?

Check our game gallery. Happy Thanksgiving guys.

I’m not a pre-season kind of guy: on the one hand, I don’t get excited when the Raptors win a game – it’s pre-season, means nothing; but on the other hand, when they lose…WTF! Irrational, I know. Fortunately, Triano doesn’t care either way, it’s how the boys on the 2nd and 3rd units are gonna do. So far, what we’ve seen has been a mixed bag of results:

Jack – looks to make things happen, the guy is a proven commodity in the league, so we know what we were in for when we got him.

Wright – been injured, but should be ready to go when the games mean something.

Banks – he can play, but he wont be doing much of anything for the Raptors, doesn’t matter what it isn’t regular season. My candidate for worst player in the league.

Weems – when he gets the call to enter the game, folks wont be groaning and actually hoping he gets a clear look at the rim with some steam behind him.

Belinelli – Lots of game, no consistency.

Johnson – Gets at it, but no consistency.

O’Bryant – if he picks it up, we will start a shrine at RR for the guy, swear to God.

Nesterovic – giving us exactly what we thought he would.

Keys to the Game

Rebounding
The Wizard have always given the Raptors problems. How many times have you felt violently towards the career games Brendan Haywood would have against us? Jamison, Oberto, Young and Blatche will all be tough to contain. Bargnani needs to crash the boards harder, 3rebs in 23mins is unacceptable. I don’t care how efficiently he is scoring. Luckily, Bosh should be getting more then 11mins.

Arenas
For a guy who has been PAID, and hasn’t really done anything, it is amazing he kept yapping up until this year. He has been playing a little gun shy, but with happy-clapper covering him to start things off, the stage is set for him to come out of his early funk.

3-Point Shooting
The Raptors were 47.4% (9-19) from beyond the arc against the Timberwolves. If they can keep that up against a Wizards team that doesn’t play great defense, they will be tough to stop.

Quick Hits

• Whatever happened to that playbook? Looks like the high pick n roll is still standing tall with one or two newbies
• DeMar needs to step up his rebounding a bit. He could be devastating at the SG spot with his size and athleticism.
• It’s only pre-season, but so far, I have been wrong about Weems – the guy isn’t a write off
• If Johnson could stay out of foul trouble, he may not be that bad

We will be running a live-chat during the game, so come back and drop some knowledge.