Tell me you aren’t still grinning from that Raptor win on Sunday. As bad as the Raptors have played, they are 2 games behind Miami for 5th seed, and are tied for 8th. Gotta love the East man. Tonight Raptors roll into South Beach and face a Miami team that has lost two games in a row – one of which was a 28 point mugging by the Grizzlies who got a career night out of Rudy Gay (41 pts).

The last time they played, the Raptors were able to turn penetration into open looks for each other. The guards were creating, the wings were scoring, and the bigs were beating up the Heat. In fact, Bargnani had a phenomenal outside-inside game where he would fake a three, take a couple steps in, and stick the jumper. He also grabbed 10 boards, one of his best nights.

In the second-half of that game, offensive rebounding and guard play was what killed the Raptors, as their 20 point half-time lead evaporated into 6 by the end of the 3rd. Timely plays by Bosh, Bargnani, Jack and Turkoglu answered every Heat charge at the end of the game, and the Raptors pulled one out.

Frankly, there is no reason that shouldn’t happen again, a Raptor win that is, but a couple things worry me about this one:

• Dwayne Wade
• Payback game for the Heat
• Raptors are 4-10 on the road

Factor in that the Heat have lost two in a row, and after tonight, they face Orlando, Portland and Utah, and you can imagine they will be motivated to come at us hard and fast to try and make the Raptors fold early. Fortunately, Miami doesn’t have the team to blow the Raptors out of the water, this one will go down to the wire.

Jack has slid into the starter role seamlessly; you can almost imagine Jose frantically pedalling on a bike trying to get back on the court as soon as possible (might already be too late). Jack needs to be more physical with Chalmers from the get go. Mario dropped 30 on us last time, and we can’t let him go off like that alongside whatever Wade decides he is going to do tonight. Jack needs to attack and bump him every chance he gets to knock him out of his sweet spot.

DeRozan comes off three bad games in a row where he has scored a combined 12 points. While we don’t need his scoring tonight, we need him to keep Wade as far under control as possible, whatever that means. DeRozan might get an early hook if he isn’t doing it in favour of Weems who has been very active This actually becomes a strategy thing as some might say to let Wade do what he wants (since he probably will), and lock down on everyone else. I personally like going about trying to stop everyone. The best part about playing the Heat is that we don’t have to send a double team to any of the post players, since they aren’t that good.

Is it too much to ask Hedo to repeat his Houston performance? He’s already played a great game the last time out with 19pts 8rebs 5ast. He only needs to not give Jones open looks from beyond the arc, and that should be it. Jones doesn’t have the type of game to really give Hedo any problems.

Beasley lulled Bosh into a coma then just unloaded on him last time out. It was actually pretty upsetting now that I think about. As good as Beasley is, Bosh is better and should dominate this matchup. Beasley has a good shot, but you have to keep him out of the paint where he grabbed 6 offensive boards last game. That is unacceptable plain and simple.

Word has been sparse on Bargnani’s injury, but he did seem a half-step off against the Rockets (got him into foul trouble early). If the guy is hurting, we need to sit him. I understand the importance of following up the Rockets win with one over the Heat, but not at the expense of his health over the course of a season. Tonight he will need to work hard on keeping O’Neal off the offensive glass, but should get great looks at the rim from the perimeter.

Keys to the game:

• Go for the jugular early
• Protect the glass
• Don’t double team anyone in the paint
• Don’t let Chalmers/Jones get hot

Jimmy‘s sim says Miami will win 114-97. I have a feeling this will be a closer affair, and contrary to what I said in the podcast, I think the Raptors win this one 103-98.

Thank God for the Heat. Over the last two seasons, as bad as things were for the Raptors, every time the Heat popped up on the schedule (home or away), the Raptors licked their lips and got themselves a win. Even though Wade and HO had their team 7-4 heading into the ACC, last night was no different. Before getting into it, how good is Wade? Miami is essentially a D-League team captained by the best player (I guess, you can interchange Kobe, LeBron and Wade as far as I’m concerned) in the league.

Bargnani got things rolling where he faked a three on the very first possession, took a step inside the three-point line and stuck a jumper. He committed a charge two possessions later, but he gave up a clean look at a three and a 15 footer to get into the paint. I will take him being aggressive like that any day of the week. Bargnani’s early active play opened space for Bosh to operate in the paint, giving him room to drive or step back and nail that jumper. Ball movement was fabulous with 7 of the 9 field goals in the quarter being assisted on (Calderon with 4 dimes).

The Heat were matching the Raptors basket for basket. Where the Raptors were creating good looks from the perimeter for each and knocking them down, the Heat were getting in the lane for layups/dunks. Wade got into the lane 6 times by my count, scoring 8 and setting HO up for a dunk. For the quarter, the Heat had 12 points in the paint to the Raptors’ 4.

The second quarter was a stretch where the Raptors could do no wrong. Ball movement was phenomenal:

• Hedo drove, drew the double and kicked to Bosh for the open jumper
• Jack drove, drew the double and kicked to Hedo for the open three
• Bargnani hits Belinelli with a skip pass for an open jumper
• Belinelli hits Johnson with three great passes in a row in the paint for layups (all three of these plays were ridiculous)

14 assists all together in the frame. It was actually the greatest 12 minutes I’ve ever seen the Raptors play. Everyone was involved, people were moving around, setting screens, hitting each other with passes, rolling towards the rim off the screen…smiling. At one point, Reggie Evans even rubbed Triano’s head and kissed him – good times.

• 69 points at the half
• 28-41 from the field
• 9-10 from the line
• 23 rebounds (4 offensive)
• 21 assists
• 22 points off the bench

The third quarter started with the Heat determined to do something and Wade setting the tone by attacking the paint. The whole offense went through him. He got into the lane, finished despite contact, or dropped it off to someone for a dunk, or kicked out to what eventually turned out to be an uncontested jumper from the perimeter. On the Raptor side of things, it couldn’t have been worse, Calderon must have been passing out bad Gatorade at half because this wasn’t the same team from the 2nd quarter.

It wasn’t so much that the Raptors were playing horribly, they were just playing uninspired. The Raptors and Heat went back and forth, matching each other basket for basket for the first half of the quarter. Ball movement wasn’t the same though for the Raptors, no one was attacking the rim, our bigs were active on the glass, but little else. Where the Raptors were getting into the paint in the first half, they were standing around the perimeter popping jumpers (they missed 10 jumpers in the quarter).

Then the Heat flipped a switch. They scored a quick 8 points, then went on a mini 7-3 run, then a 6-2 run to close out the quarter. All-in-all, the Heat went on a 21-5 run in the last 4:58 of the 3rd. it came quickly and without warning. The Raptors didn’t score a field goal in that stretch with all 5 points coming at the line. It was a sad site, like watching AltRaps sob after a night of paid companionship.

The 4th was tense with both sides only scoring 4 points in the first 3 and a half minutes. Then it slowly happened. The Raptors would hit a shot, the Heat responded with a three. HO blocked Hedo on the drive, Wade pushes the ball on the break, found Jones who stopped and popped (he had his foot on the line or it would have been a tie game) and boom, 100-99 – Raptors up by 1 with 3:44 left in the game. All of us at home sank into our seats, those of us at RFF sank in their beverages.

Bosh attacks the rim like a man possessed out of the timeout, drew the foul and hit both from the line, 102-99 Raptors – slight breathing space. HO returns the favour on the next possession, 102-101 Raptors. Hedo gets into the paint, draws the double and kicks to Bargnani who hits a clutch three, 105-101 Raptors. Beasley responds with a jumper off of a swing pass from Jones, 105-103 Raptors. Hedo gets into the lane, and draws the foul, hits both, 107-103 Raptors….

With the game on the line, a defensive stand was needed and it came. After the Raptors made three great defensive rotations, Bosh reached high to block a Beasley hook as the shot-clock was expiring and got possession back with the Raptors up 4. Hedo penetrated and hit an open Bargnani, who swung the ball to a wide open Jack for a three – dagger, 110-103 Raptors, Heat timeout. Another defensive stand was soon to follow, Raptors rotated on defense like clockwork and contested an already questionable three by Wade which rimmed out. Calderon ran the pick ‘n roll to find a rolling Bosh who stepped back and stuck the jumper, another dagger, 112-103 Raptors, another Heat timeout. After Jones misses a relatively contested long three Jack hit another dagger from behind the arc and the rest was academic.

For the record, I still think Jack is a terrible shooter, and should be restricted to driving and dishing, but he had a solid 4th quarter and hit two clutch shots to seal the game.

The Four Factors to Winning

Shooting the Ball Well
Did I say ‘well’? I meant to say ‘great’. the Raptors shot the hell out of the ball last night. 58% from the field (60% from behind the arc) and 81% from the line. The great shooting was a result of the great playmaking. You pass the rock around until someone frees up and you’ll get great looks, it’s simple. Note that the Heat had 18 more field goal attempts but had 2 less field goals made.
Raptors – 64%
Heat - 47.7%

Taking Care of the Ball
Horrible, just horrible. The Raptors did not take care of the ball at all, which is something we take for granted around these parts. How bad was it? Calderon had 10ast and 4tos, Hedo had 8ast 4tos (Jack had none).
Raptors – 20.2%
Heat – 9%

Offensive Rebounding
For all the great work our bigs did rebounding the ball (Bargnani had 10 rebounds for crying out loud), we did a terrible job of rebounding on our own end. Beasley and HO were more then a handful (grabbing 6 and 3 respectively) which allowed the Heat wings to slip in and grab a few offensive boards that almost broke our back.
Raptors – 26.4%
Heat – 30.6%

Getting to the Free Throw Line
Both teams were about the same from the line but the Raptors had a higher free throw rate (Free Throw Rate = Free Throw Attempts / Field Goal Attempts) because they got to the free throw line more frequently.
Raptors – 50.7%
Heat - 38.2%

It’s safe to say that the Raptors won this game with phenomenal shooting, both from the field and the line, as they were out rebounded and didn’t protect the ball nearly as well as the Heat did. After that road swing this win was very necessary.

Player Impact

Bosh, again…you surprised? Our boy had another monster night, with 29pts 10rebs 4blks. He was a monster all over the court. Bargnani was right there though with a monster of his own: 24pts 10rebs 2blks. The difference tonight was the play of Hedo and Jack, who both had their best games as Raptors.