Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Linas Kleiza – Out
Andrea Bargnani – Should play

New Orleans
David West – Should play
Emeka Okafor – Should play

Match-ups

Jose Calderon
Loved his performance against the Mavs: 15pts 8rebs 8ast; great balance. If he plays off Paul a bit, and forces him to shoot more than he drives and passes, the Raptors can surprise tonight. The Hornets have a nice point guard situation; you have a top-2 point guard in the league with Jarrett Jack, who could potentially be a top-5 back-up point guard. The only thing Paul doesn’t do is block shots. For those of you who don’t have ESPN Insider access, this is what Hollinger has to say about Paul:

• Devastating pick-and-roll operator with superb quickness and impeccable handle.
• Not a great shooter, but a fantastic passer and outstanding rebounder for size.
• Disrupter with league’s fastest hands, but size limits ability to challenge shots.

Paul’s not been playing like himself the last few games, averaging 12pts 9ast 4rebs over his last five. Not surprisingly, the Hornets are 2-3 over that span, and have failed to score 100 points in a winning affair since January 26th.
Box: 8pts 14ast 4rebs

DeMar DeRozan
I have one knock on DeMar since his resurgence as a legit scoring threat: he doesn’t do much of anything else. And it’s not like he plays a very high-level of defense either. Now that the jumper is primo, how about working on the drive-and-kick. He does such a good job of getting into the paint, might as well find the open guy on the perimeter looking to shoot the ball. Willie Green is going to be a tough cover tonight and has been doing a great job in the starting unit. Over the last 5 games, the kid is averaging 15pts a game while shooting over 50% from the field. Time to focus.
Box: 19pts 3reb 1ast

James Johnson
This is exactly the kind of game where he will be useful; against a tall-athletic wing (Ariza) who can go inside-and-out. I like his defense and shot blocking ability a lot, but he has shown little else. Still don’t know what to expect form him, but if his offense doesn’t start to pick up, it’s going to be a drag on the starting unit to compensate. Not saying it’s not possible, but when your effectively playing 4 on 5, makes things hard
Box: 6pts 7rebs 1stl 2blk

Amir Johnson
You have to like the dudes who quietly go about their business and earn their pay in full. David West qualifies as one of these cats. He’s not flashy, and just makes things happen. Offensively, he’s a poor mans Karl Malone who comes off the roll like a pit bull. Im putting the over/under on pick-n-roll dunks at 3; its going to be nasty. The good news for the Raptors is that between Johnson, Davis, and Bargnani (on certain match-ups) they have quite a few different looks to throw at West. Again, the front court is where the Raptors can make their stand, but the depth they have may not make up for the quality of the players and system around them. I’m convinced Amir is straight-up injured, and while I totally love and respect him playing through pain like he has been, I don’t want things getting worse for the kid. If it’s getting bad, shut it down and heal a bit.
Box: 16pts 9rebs 3ast

Andrea Bargnani
A healthy Chandler is probably better suited as a pick-n-roll partner for Paul, but Okafor has done a pretty good job in his place. While he doesn’t possess Tyson’s raw athleticism, the guy is fundamental, and can be counted on for a double-double, as well as elite level defense in the low-block. The Raptors missed Bargnani against the Mavs. I’m not convinced the defense woud have been worse off with Bargnani in the middle, but the Raptors would have had the chance to stick a few key shots at key times and maybe (I’m happy this morning, leave me alone) could have held on. The match-up with Okafor is rife with mis-match opportunities, with rebounding being the lone challenge. While the Hornets are a good rebounding team, both West and Okafor do it rather well. Bargnani can impact the game much more with his rebounding than scoring since I suspect this will be a slower paced, more deliberate type of game.
Box: 22pts 6rebs 1blk

Keys to the Game

Aggressive Pick-n-Roll Defense
I’m anticipating another Triano f-bomb sound byte today, but there is a glimmer of hope: the weakest part of Paul’s offensive game is his jumper. If the defender of the guy setting the pick jumps out and takes away the lane, the guy getting picked sticks to the roller, and the rest of the team stays home on defense, then Chris’ options on he roll will be limited. I can live with CP3 scoring 30 If it means he isn’t getting folks involved. However, loots of ‘ifs’ and perfect defensive execution is required for this to work out.

Zone
The zone will also help battle the pick-n-roll, as well as disrupt scoring lanes. David West does like to play in the high-post, so he can bust it with some dead-eye shooting from the elbow. That being said, no matter the defensive set/strategy, the Raptors will need to play it very aggressively because of Paul’s ability to get to the ball to the right guy at the right time.

Bench Production
With Jack, Landry and Belinelli coming of the bench, the Hornets bench is quite formidable. Landry gives the a very good low-post presence off the bench that they haven’t had

The Line

The gamblers have the Hornets as 5.5 point favourite with an over/under of 192. It’s not that the Raptors can’t play a slower paced game, they dropped the last meeting 85-81, but this one has the makings of a defensive battle which doesn’t play to the Raptors strengths. Tip-off at 7pm.

The Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back, and rolling into Indiana (9-9) who are two games ahead of the Raptors for 7th in the East. Yes, the Raptors currently hold the 8th playoff seed; half a game ahead of Milwaukee. Could be a nice win for the Raptors who play the Knicks again on Wednesday and will be looking to exact some revenge after yesterdays loss.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out

Indiana
Niente

Match-ups

Point Guard
I guess that settled that: Jose Calderon is the better PG. Since Jack got moved, Calderon has been averaging 10pts 8.6ast; numbers approaching the levels that had us all saying he was a top flight point guard when he got that big contract. The good news is that Jose is playing like the Jose we all know he can play like, the bad news is that he has another speedy point guard to deal with tonight in Darren Collison, who the Pacers landed in a damn good deal for themselves in the summer (only cost them Troy Murphy).

Collison was one of the prizes of the summer, and Bird somehow managed to engineer a trade that opened up playing time for Hibbert to shine, and land the point guard he desired, all in one-swoop; not to bad! Darren sees the court very welle, and is able to create off the dribble. He wont kill us from the perimeter, but his jumper is pretty good, have to get a hand up on him and things should work out. I like the energy Jose’s been-bringing on defense; hasn’t been stellar, but he’s not making it easy for the other point guard either. I’d like to see him continue that and make Collison beat the Raptors with his jumper and not his play-making when he gets going.

Should be noted that Collison is a pretty good defender, so Jose can expect to be tested on both ends of the floor.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
It’s going to be a long night for DeRozan/Barbosa, I just have a feeling. Dunleavy seems to be one of those guys that always gets up to play against the Raptors. Fortunately for us he comes off the bench, and DeMar will have to deal with Rush for longer stretches. Rush was one of the guys we wanted to draft when we drafted Hibbert (talk about this later on) and traded to Indiana for Jermaine O’Neal *shudder*. The kid is very athletic, blocks shots, and a solid defender on the perimeter. DeMar will be wise to attack him as he has some intensity issues that render him useless at points; something DeMar knows all too well.

There are massive match-up issues for Barbosa when he’s in with Dunleavy, this is where Triano/Carlessimo have to get creative with their line-juggling, but Barbosa can’t defend Dunleavy; and neither can Dunleavy guard Barbosa. Depending on who’s playing, the Raptors can have the advantage in this match-up. The Pacers are a big team overall, so unless the Raptors small-ball unit is playing off the chain, it will tough to get Barbosa playing time at the shooting guard. Bayless could see reduced minutes tonight as Barbosa would most likely get some of his minutes at the back-up PG.
Edge: Indiana

Small Forward
The wing situation is going to be a rough one for the Raptors tonight, where the Pacers are deeper than the Raptors, and able to throw different looks at us all night. Fortunately Weems (and DeRozan) have both started to play a little better the last couple games. Weems especially is finishing aggressively around the rim, when he’s actually engaged in the game. Granger is approaching elite-level scorer status the last couple seasons, and could easily go off for 35 (although we’ve been able to manage him rather nicely the last couple years).

I’m sure Posey’s good for a 3 pointer, if that…maybe he’s not, but the guy is a serviceable back-up off the bench in limited playing time; he’s a two-time world champion, that counts for something at the end of the day. The key will be to play Granger hard on both ends, and getting him into foul trouble. Since Weems is one of the two best finishers on team with a head of steam, running it at Danny can prove effective since he’s a tweener on defense who likes to swat balls (he’s not a bad shot blocker either, but you can’t block them all). Weems needs to rebound from a gawdawful game against the Knicks yesterday, and wont have an easy time of it. Still, he’s shown some resilience so far.

As an aside, I’ve lost confidence in Kleiza. It’s not that he can’t be a good player for the Raptors, as a spot up shooter off the bench he could still be a solid contributor, but he’s taking on too much and can’t deliver. Maybe Karl had it right with his usage in Denver…
Edge: Indiana

Power Forward
Amir has really stepped up in Reggies absence, with a couple monster games. He’s been able to play under control and not get foul happy which leads me to believe that the coaching is getting through to him. The Pacers front court isn’t very strong after the starters, McRoberts is a good shooter from the perimeter, but can’t handle Johnson in the block on either end of the floor. I expect to see situational match-ups with Josh covering Bargnani, which will only lead to more trouble for the Pacers.

On Amir, McRoberts can’t defend and is a poor rebounder for his size; all the makings for a 20/10 night for our Young One. Ed Davis is making some significant contributions given that he’s coming off a pretty brutal injury. I’m really liking this kid a lot, and he too will have an advantage against Josh on the glass and in the quickness department.
Edge: Toronto

Center
Like I said earlier, the Raptors front court is better than the Pacers. Hibbert, much like McRoberts, is a big lumbering player who can’t keep up with either Bargnani or Johnson (or Davis or Dorsey). He does, however, pose some problems since he’s a traditional center who can score from 15ft-in. Bargnani didn’t play heavy minutes yesterday (33), so he should have the legs to get after Hibbert and/or McRoberts, doesn’t really matter who’s covering him tonight, he will own.

His rebounding has improved, and should be able to contribute on that front. My only hope is that Jeff Foster doesn’t find the fountain of youth and make an impact off the bench; he’s really feasted on the Raptors front court over the years with his hustle and grit.

The Raptors front-court has the horses to really make a positive impact on this game; had this not been the second night of a back-to-back, it could have gotten messy for the Pacers.
Edge: Toronto

Side Note:
Does it upset no one else that the Pacers have two players, Granger and Hibbert, who by all rights should be a Raptor, that are thriving at positions that we currently need filled? Anyone?

Keys to the Game

Don’t get Down Early
The Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back, so they need to use their energy effectively, and not to play catch-up; the game could be put away early if they come out flat. To Triano’s credit, he managed minutes pretty well last night, so the Raps won’t be totally worn out to start the game. The easiest way to stay in the game will be to pound the ball into Amir and Bargnani (depending on match-up and court positioning) and let them molest the Pacers front court. Getting into an up-and-down match to start the game may prove difficult to sustain and put them into a hole.

As always, the 3rd quarter push will be crucial, so catching a collective second wind at the half will be important. Jose might want to go back to handing out Gatorade in the locker room; seemed to help.

Rebounding
This would have been a perfect game for Reggie’s hustle, he could have easily grabbed 17 rebounds against a slow footed Pacer front court.

The Pacers are 3rd in the league in rebounding, with the whole team chipping in on the glass. Boxing out and crashing the boards should be the minimum requirement to see the floor tonight. Anything Bargnani can give us above 6 rebounds will be massive.

Perimeter Defense
Two words: Julian Wright; the kid Is our best defender on the perimeter, and can help. He’s clearly not the answer, but he has the size, length and athleticism to both all three of Granger, Rush and Dunleavy. Won’t hurt, right?

Make Your Free Throws
The Raptors went 11-22 from the line yesterday against the Knicks. Not saying if they hit them they would have won (they wouldn’t have), but they could have changed the complexion of the game. 50% from the the charity stripe is unacceptable.

We got Twitter, Facebook and Live Chat.

This is the first game since opening night that I’ve legitimately been excited to watch. While I’m not sure what Colangelo’s plans for this team are over the next 9 months or so, but he pulled off the best trade of his Raptor tenure. While Jack may have been the best player in the deal, he turned Jack/Banks/Andersen into an asset (Peja’s expiring) that was greater than the parts it was traded for, and Bayless who should be giving us a couple years of frustration. If nothing else, we have a couple months of trade machine until the deadline.

Tonight, the Raptors host the Sixers at the ACC, and hope to extend the winning streak to 4-games for the first time since January of last season. Without even getting into it, I expect a win tonight for a couple reasons:

1. Sixers suck
2. Sixers suck on the road
3. Sixers sucked last night in Washington (back-to-back)
4. We’ve already beaten them

This the second time these teams have played in a week (it was the Sixers who got the Raptors started on this mini-winning streak), where the Raptors were able to keep the game close, then pull it out in the 4th. Bargnani came out the games gangbusters, but did a solid job of maintaining his effectiveness for the game. Arsenalist described the game the best:

“This game was a war of attrition between a poor Philly offense and a bad Raptors defense. Something had to give and it ended up being the Philly defense as a very motivated Andrea Bargnani kept demanding the ball right up until the end and delivered when he got it.”

Injury Report

Toronto
Ed Davis – On the mend

Philadelphia
Andre Iguodala – Achilles, Played last night
Elton Brand – May be suspended

Match-ups

PG – Calderon vs Holiday
Holiday is coming off a rough game against the Wizards last night where he went 4-12 from the field, but grabbed 6 rebounds and dished out 5 dimes. I like this kid, but he’s too up and down, and considering he threw in a bad performance last night, and the three days rest Jose got, this could be a long night for the kid. I ugh…don’t have a whole lot for this one, other than the bench could have a big impact on this one. Lou Williams stunk last week, but had a big night last night, and Bayless is coming in pretty wet behind the ears. I expect Calderon to play 32+ minutes tonight, and with his ability to manage the offense, he should have a strong game if he keeps active on offense, and doesn’t give Holiday anything easy.
Edge: Calderon

SG – DeRozan vs Turner
Triano will be experimenting with minutes to get the right mix, but if DeRozan is having another bad game, you can expect to see Barbosa (and Weems in certain match-ups) play some here. Turner hasn’t been shooting well, and his offense has suffered, but he was able to pull down 12 rebounds last week against the Raps. I don’t expect to see that again, but the Raptors will need to stay alert and not let the Philly backcourt catch their second wind tonight and lead their offense since their front line players struggle to create shots for themselves. If Lou Williams gets going like he did last night against the Bucks, it could open up some cracks in the paint for folks to go to work. After a few pretty games, and a couple days off, DeRozan looks good to come correct tonight. He needs to stay active and get to the line, otherwise I don’t see it working out well for him-again.
Edge: DeRozan

SF – Weems vs Igoudala
After being out a few games with an injured Achilles, Andre played 50 minutes last night and had a solid game (23pts 11rebs 8ast). He’s going to be tired and is still injured (achilles injuries take a bit more time to heal). Nocioni is playing hurt, and Weems is playing well. That’s all there is to this. Expect Thaddeus Young to get some burn after posting a couple solid performances against the Bucks and Wizards, but he’s logged quite a few minutes the last two games, so he wont be 100%. I’m liking Weems a lot lately, seems like he’s ‘gotten’ it, and is doing the right things on the court. Either way, he will be playing folks who aren’t at their best, and should have a a good go of it. I’m excited to see what Peja brings to the table tonight. I expect he should play 20+ minutes as Carlesimo Triano figures things out; this should be a nice game for him to showcase what he has left in the tank.
Edge: Weems

PF – Evans vs Brand
Brand might be suspended for this game, after being ejected last night for a flagarant. Evans will need to do a better job defending him as he had his way last week (27pts 9reb) and was really the only reason the Sixers were in the game for as long as they were. If he’s suspended, then the offense will sputter, since no one else commands enough attention in the paint to give the perimeter players room to operate; hopefully we get to see Songaila airball a couple more shots. Either way, the Raptors have the horses to win this battle.
Edge: Evans

C – Bargnani vs Hawes
Greatest. Raptor. Player. Ever.
Edge: Bargnani

**NOTE** I think this is the first time I have the Raptors winning at all five positions, without the bench needing to pick up the slack. Could be a nice game for Amir to get at it without the pressure of being a focal point with so much going on with the new players and the fact that Philly sucks.

Keys to the Game

Show up
Philly is going to be tired after going to the wire agains the Wizards, and we’re a better/deeper team than they are. Yea…

Protect the perimeter
The Sixers don’t have the horses to hurt us in the key, or the glass, so our wings will need to pay attention to their shooting. If they get going, get the adrenaline pumping early, and hit their shots, it could be a long-frustrating night. I can live with that if they protect the paint and contest shots. Communication will be huge.

Give Bargnani the ball
Il Mago is hot, lets keep feeding him and let him go to work. Philly’s got nothing to stop him, or counter him. With Jack carrying CP3′s bags now, there’s no one to look away from him when he’s got it going.

The Line

The gamblers have the Raptors as 6.5 point favourites with an over/under of 205.5 points. I’m thinking bigger things tonight; Raptors by 11.

Sorry this pre-game isn’t as good as it should be, I was super rushed this morning.

[Editor's note: defintions for these metrics can be found here. As well, some of the links need ESPN Insider access]

Scoring efficiency and offensive production

Sonny Weems continues to impress with his 57.6% TS%. He ranks 3rd in FG% for shooting guard (yes, he’s playing more and more at SF, but still is pegged as a SG by most sites). Linas Kleiza had a better week improving his PER to 9.2 from 7.9 (see definition here). This remains “too low” versus my expectations for him. His true shooting percentage remains near the bottom on this team. New edition Jerryd Bayless is worse, but not that much than Jarrett Jack (see further analysis below). However, for all the knocks on Bayless’ inability to pass, his assist percentage isn’t that far behind “pass first” PG Jose Calderon. Problem is his turnover percentage is quite high.

Rebounding, defense and “hands”

Our offensive rebounding prowess continues with Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson setting the pace on the offensive glass. They are ranked second and third respectively out of ALL players. Add Joey Dorsey’s (who doesn’t “qualify” due to limited minutes) and its no wonder why we’re top six team in Offensive Rebound Rate and top 8 in rebound differential. This has been key for the team to stay close in big games.

The addition of Peja Stojakovic allows us to relax on consistently beating up on Andrea Bargnani’s lack of rebounding (well, not entirely, but he had such a big week so we’ll give him a break). Peja hauls down an eye-popping 3.9% of all available rebounds. Heck, PJ Carlesimo catches more from the bench.

The Drew Gooden and Amir Johnson Contract vs Performance Debate

Yes, yes, I know your “per 36 minutes is useless because Amir fouls…” argument. It was just easier to compare apples to apples and per 36 was easier to pull. But I could have adjusted to a “per 24 min” as well – and the analysis would be the same. Both players are capable of averaging around 24 minutes a game. The percentages will remain the same however in either case. (You could argue against this analysis IF you felt Drew was capable of consistently putting up 30+ minutes and Amir could not due to his foul rate.).

Amir is ahead in almost every category. He has the same point production rate despite taking 4.5 less field goal attempts. He’s that much more efficient in the field and much better at the line as well. Oddly, Johnson retrieves more offensive rebounds than defensive, but overall they are on par. Johnson is a much better shot blocker. And, no surprise, fouls at a much higher rate.

What about advanced stats? This is another good way to measure “apples-to-apples”. It generally tells the same story, with Amir’s PER and Win Shares (WS/48) both well ahead of Gooden.

And the final metric that matters? Amir Johnson is 23 years old (players generally get better from here) while Drew Gooden is 29 (an age were their numbers start to regress).

Jarrett Jack versus Jerryd Bayless

Lineup of the Week

Miscellaneous Notes

• Amir Johnson’s 9 for 9 from the line against Boston put him over 90% for the year. He’s career numbers are around 68%. His previous best from the line was 4 for 4 in both April 12, 2006 and April 8, 2008.
• Andrea Bargnani’s posted a hot 61.8% effective FG% this week to lead the team to three wins. He averaged 28.3 PPG and 5 boards a game (want more, but I’ll take it).
• The Raptors are 5th worst for opponent’s field goal percentage at 47.6%. Rebounding is one thing, but we need to force more difficult shots in order to win more games.

Questions? Submissions for “confirmed or busted”? Email me: tomliston@gmail.com or find me on Twitter.

Sources: basketball-reference.com, espn.com

Arse has been up since 7am doing laps, push-ups and cursing at the mirror in preparation for the Celtics today. You hate, them, I hate them, everyone hates this team accept people who live in Massachusetts. I actually don’t hate them anymore, I just hate Garnett. Everyone else is a classy player who acts like a man; Garnett is a bully who’s drunk on his championship.

Lots of action the last couple days in Toronto huh? Unavailable for tonight’s game are Jack, Banks and Andersen; hopefully Stojakovic and Bayless available. 77% of you think this was a good trade for the Raptors, and I have to agree. In one swoop, the Raptors got younger, saved some money, and have a big asset that should come into play as the trade deadline gets closer. Gotta give Colangelo some credit, this could have been the best trade he’s made in a while since we will still have Reggies expiring in play as well.

Just a quick recap of some assets as the trade deadline approaches:

Peja Stojakovic – $14.75mil
Reggie Evans – $5mil
TPE – $14mil’ish

That’s a lot of toys to be playing with, and with a lot of broke teams, and teams looking to add a dead-eye(ish) shooters, it’s very possible something good/big can happen by February. The only thing not acceptable for me is buying out Peja’s contract right now. I guarantee you Riley is whispering sweet nothings in BryCo’s ear to try to make that happen.

We have a game to get too…Raptors host the Celtics today. I had a chance to speak with Brendan Jakcson from Celtics Hub, and he had some really good things to say about this team:

He’s the man on the one of the three best teams in the league; at what point does the list of best point guards begin with Rondo and not Paul, Williams, Westbrook or Rose?
Many people believe that Rajon Rondo will not fully ascend to the upper echelon of premir point guards until he develops a consistent jump shot. I disagree. Friday marked the first time this season Rondo failed to record double digit assists (finishing the game with 7) and he say out for much of the fourth quarter with a hamstring issue. Ranking the league’s best point guards is usually problematic on the outset because no one really agrees on the criteria. Should they be the best passer? Best basketball player? Best decision-maker? Should they be better offensively? Should they be better defensively? At this point, if Rondo is not ebing mentioned within that group of aforementioned points, than the person doing the talking has not been paying much attention.

Are the Celtics more worried about the Heat or the Magic?
First and foremost, the Celtics are most worried about themselves. If healthy and focused, the Celtics feel they can beat any team on any night. However, those are two huge “ifs”. So far this season, the Celtics have handily beaten the Heat twice. At this point the Celtics cannot really say they are worried about the Heat. As for the Magic, the Celtics have yet to play the new-look Magic (Quentin Richardson has replaced Matt Barnes and Stan Van Gundy is actually playing Brandon Bass) but even the Magic do not stroke fear in the hearts of the Celtics. Kendrick Perkins is probably the best at defending Dwight Howard one on one which gives the Cs so much more leeway on the defensive end. Less cheating/helping begets better close-outs on shooters. Despite handily beating the Magic in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics have yet to play them this year. The easy answer is the fear of the unknown.

The Celtics lost a couple key guys (Tony Allen for one), added another couple (West and Wafer) and added two O’Neal’s who might be limping into the playoffs. Were these moves enough to even get out of the East, much less beat the Lakers?
The Celtics came out of the East last year with a far less complete team. As for the Lakers, the Celtics lacked the necessary size and length in the middle to compete with Los Angeles on the glass. The additions of Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal will likely change that. The Celtics may still lose the battle of the boards but now they are more well-equipped to battle other players for rebounds.
Delonte West may end up being the most underrated move of any team this offseason. I do not blame teams for taking a pass on West but also totally understand why the Celtics did not. The Celtics’ bench lacked a necessary glue-guy last year as evident by how much burn Ray Allen got with the bench warmers. West changes that. He can play the one, two, or even the three if the Celtics go small.
Losing Tony Allen was a definite blow for the Celtics wing defense off the bench. Luckily for the Cs, Marquis Daniels appears to be hitting his stride (well, hitting it enough, anyway) to be a serviceable replacement for TA. Daniels is not a “lock-down” guy like Allen was for the Cs, but he’s still capable of spelling Pierce when necessary.

Speaking of Lakers, if the Celtics don’t win it all this season, how much sleep does Danny Ainge lose before breaking things up?
Danny Ainge actually did a brilliant thing last offseason by only singing players for two years. This way, whether or not the Celtics win this year they are poised to either go into battle with largely the same team intact or use the plethora of expiring contracts as trade bait. Win or lose, Ainge has options and with options a man can sleep easy.

What will the Raptors have to do to beat the Celtics tonight?
Catch them on an off night? No, but in all seriousness, the Celtics biggest weakness is athleticism. If Toronto can use their athletics wings (Sonny Weems, DeMarr DeRozan) to out run and jump the Cs, than it could be a long night for the men in green. Andrea Bargnani should also try to draw Kevin Garnett out of the paint for as long as possible to clear driving lanes for the Raptor’s more athletics players. If Garnett sags down to help, Bargnani can make him pay by hitting open jumper after open jumper.

Injuries

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Should Play
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Should Play

Boston
Rajon Rondo – Hamstring, Game time decision
Kevin Garnett – Elbow to the head (LOL), Game time decision
Jermaine O’Neal – Knee, Out
Kendrick Perkins – Out

Match-ups

PG – Calderon vs Rondo
His first case as the undisputed leader of this team, and he gets Rondo; it’s almost funny actually. If you haven’t been paying attenion, Rondo is the best point guard in the league right now, averaging 11.2pts 14.3ast 4.8reb 2.5blk in about 40min. Jose isn’t. To make matters worse for Calderon, Rondo’s defense is probably better than his offense. On offense, Rondo likes the paint/elbows. Jose can expect to be attacked a lot off the dribble.

Rondo also gets a chance to welcome Jerryd to the Raptors, should be fun.
Edge: Rondo

SG – DeRozan vs Allen
DeMar has played very well the last week or so, and seems to have taken things up a notch in his game. This afternoon against Allen, he will have to leverage more than his athleticism to be effective. He’s going to have to take notes and do what Allen does. It will be fun to watch him chase Ray-Ray around, but he needs to return that favour in kind on offense.

Repeat after me: Don’t. Leave. Allen. On. The. Perimeter. For. Any. Reason. He will stick ‘em from the perimeter, and can finish at the rim. Good luck.
Edge: Allen

SF – Weems vs Pierce
I get that feeling that Weems athleticism wont be helping him as much as usual. Unlike Ray Allen who is able to run around, Pierce doesn’t, and for some reason, he seemingly doesn’t need too. To have any success, Weems will need to get out and make him run in transition. Run up the court, run around screens, run into the corner, fake rolling and pop out…just keep running. If Pierce is tired enough, he wont punish you on offense with that slow first step that has raped and pillaged defenses across the league.

Pierce likes to play in the paint, but his perimeter game needs to be respected. I feel like I should be putting more here, but I’m super tired.
Edge: Pierce

PF – Evans vs Garnett
I suspect there will be a switcharoo on defense were Shaq covers Evans and Garnett jumps out on Bargnani, but whatever. The only thing I’m hoping for today is when KG starts jawing at Calderon, Evans grabs him by the nuts and head butts him. That would make me very happy.

Edge: Garnett

C – Bargnani vs Shaq
The only match-up where the Raptors have an advantage, and I suspect that it will be mitigated with Doc switching Garnett to Bargnani for defensive purposes. Shaq has zero chance of keeping up with Andrea on the perimeter, we all know that. It’s not a secret weapon or anything. Garnett though…he can do it. Bargnani should be able to hang with Shaq defensively, but there will be moments where Shaq gets good position and puts it down. The one area where the Raptors have an advantage, and it’s an easy fix to get around it. Sucks is all…

Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Rebounding
The Celtics are the 2nd worse rebounding team in the league. Even though they a size advantage against almost every team, they can’t grab a rebound; which really baffles me. Regardless, the Raps need to get out in transition and get the Celtics running back on their heels, as well as keeping possessions going with an offensive rebound. The only way to do that is to have the ball, which means grabbing rebounds. Make sense?

Be Athletic?
I guess you are either or you aren’t. The Raptors are, the Celtics aren’t. The Raptors need to get the geriatrics running up and down the court pleading for the Bengay. The Raptors have to get them tripping over their knee braces and such to have a chance.

Hit your shots
This is more a plea than a strategy, but the Raptors have an advantage in this area, and they need to use it to enhance the other aspects of their game. If this boils down to a slow-paced halfcourt game, it’s over. But if speeds up and gets into an up-and-down match, the Raptors will give themselves a chance. That’s all we’re asking for, a chance.

The Line

The gamblers have the Celtics as 5.5 point favourites, which isn’t as bad as I thought it would be. The Raptors just lost one of their most important players in a trade, and with the roster shaken up a bit, it could provide the fire to get after it a bit more than they have been to start the season.

Fortunately for my sanity, I missed the game. However, there was a point last night where I glanced up at the TV, saw the Wizards up 79-59, did a double take, then proceeded to drink myself blind while some suit at the bar was shouting the most obscene things at the TV I’ve ever heard; turns out he was watching the Leafs, but whatever. How the f&@% do you lose to a Wizards team missing their best player? How the f&@% do you get out-rebounded by the worst rebounding team in the league?

I don’t have any answers to questions about the Raptors, seriously. This team beats Orlando on Friday, competes hard against Miami on Saturday, then they get thumped by Washington on Tuesday. Indulge me for a second: so I design software at work for a living. After interviewing clients to get what their pain points are, one of the reoccurring themes was predictability of cost. They want to know what they will be paying, for a certain amount of product over the course of the year.

I want the exact same thing from the Raptors, I want to know what I’m getting out of them every night; right now I don’t. We don’t know which incarnation of this team will show up from night to night. Really makes it hard to put other aspects of my life on hold to watch games where we lose to bad teams because of questionable things. On the flip-side, it does us a huge disservice when they beat a team like the Magic on the road, since achieving that usually means that everyone is carrying their own weight, and making the right decisions on every play. This team obviously isn’t in that vicinity, so it gets our hopes up.

One positive from last night is that, and I’m just putting this out there, but I think Weems has moved into the starting role. Kleiza did well off the bench, and I think his offense is better suited coming off the bench, and frankly, with Barbosa out, it is needed there more. A wing Jack/DeRozan/Weems makes me much more excited.

Sigh…

I had a chance to speak with Carey Smith, of Philadunkia.com about the Sixers and the matchup tonight:

Andre Iguadala hasn’t started the season as expected, with his numbers pretty much down across the board. This hasn’t stopped teams from expressing interest in him. If he gets moved, what will the Sixers look for him in return?
Thorn and Stefanski are going to ask for the world in return for AI9, because in my opinion they highly over rate his potential. Iguodala is a very athletic, very well rounded and overall very good player, but he’s a second or some believe a third banana on a title contending team. He is not, nor will he ever be a star as the Sixers front office believed he could become. If they deal him (which I don’t want the Sixers to do), I hope they go after cap space and a young big who can grab some boards.

It took a couple seasons, but Elton Brand seems to be getting back on track. He was having trouble meshing with the athletic wings on the team, what has changed?
What has changed about Brand is that he lighter, moving better and is in much better shape. This past summer was the first time since Brand has been in a Sixers uniform that he didn’t spend the off season rehabbing from a serious injury. He was able to concentrate on getting ready for the season from a conditioning stand point and work on his actual basketball skills. All that work seems to be paying off.

I was super high on Jrue Holliday coming into the season, and it seems as though he worked on his game quite a bit this summer. What is the kid doing right?
To be honest, Jrue is having a wildly inconsistent year so far in 2010-11. There have been some All-Star caliber games from him and some flat out bombs like the one against SAS the other night. You can read more about in a post by Tom Sunnegren.

How do you match-up with the Raptors? What will be the strategy for dealing with Bargnani and DeRozan?
Outside of our usual interior weaknesses, I believe the Sixers matchup well against the Raptors. I don’t see DeRozan, Kleiza or the Jack/Calderon PG combo as much of an issue for the Sixers to handle. As is typical of the Sixers this season, they’re going to get killed in the paint vs. the Raptors. Former Sixers Reggie Evans may have a career night vs. our weak frontline and Andrea Bargnani will do whatever he wants against the Sixers bigs. If we can slow Bargnani down, even just a little (he averaged 18 ppg. & 5.8 rpg vs. PHl last season) we should win this game.

Injuries

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Out
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Should Play

Philadelphia
Andre Iguodala – Achilles, Should Play

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Holiday
Jrue just turned 20 this summer, so he obviously has the experience to take it to Jack/Calderon all night. He’s also a mediocre shooter, who’s quick enough to get into the paint; so expect him to go 8-13 from the perimeter tonight, and 6-9 at the rim. He’s bigger, stronger, and faster then Jack and plays better defense. The Sixers are 11th in the league in assists, meaning they do a great job of moving the ball around; doesn’t bode well for a Raptor defense that doesn’t rotate or play good defense. At the head of the beast is Holiday who may not have great court vision, but does a good job of finding the right guy for the shot (if that made any sense at all). Call me out on this, but on the second night of a back-to-back, I have zero expectations tonight…zero. Jrue has a career game…fml
Edge: Holiday

SG – DeRozan vs Turner
It wasn’t that he had a bad night per say, but he took 9 shots. To put that in perspective, Jack took 14 and Kleiza took 11 off the bench. The kids doing a great job the last couple games, and you can’t get him the ball? Seriously? DeMar needs to keep Turner on the perimeter and tempt him with open-ish shots. Turner doesn’t have the athleticism to beat DeRozan off the dribble, or through the air, so he will pick his spots since he sees the floor so well. Honestly, DeRozan should win this match-up, the kid is still finding his way, and is in the zonew. I wont accept any other result.
Edge: DeRozan

SF – Weems vs Iguodala
AI is injured, and was only able to muster 19 minutes against the Spurs on the weekend (he still managed to put up 10pts 8rebs though). Achilles injuries affect movement, movement affects ability to do stuff, and if you can’t do stuff, the guy on the other side of the court should win the match-up. If Andre can’t go, expect to see more of Young and Nocioni. If Andre does go, and is injured, Money better drop 20pts, that’s all I got.
Edge: Weems

PF – Evans vs Brand
I’m totally biased towards Brand, he’s been one of my favourites since Duke (actually, I think he’s the only Duke player I’ve ever really liked). He’s made some nice progress since that ridiculous injury he suffered when he signed with Philly, but hasn’t regained his explosiveness that he lost as a result. Evans isn’t an explosive guy either, but has been playing smart, and controlling the boards the best he can without much support. One thing to note is that Brand doesn’t play big in the paint anymore, he’s a mid-ranger who doesn’t shoot a very high percentage. Evans can get at him and make him work hard on the glass, and for his points. Wont be an exciting match-up.
Edge: Even

C – Bargnani vs Hawes
Last night in Washington was Bargnani’s worse game of the season, which happens. I seriously don’t think I need to say too much about this match-up. Hawes doesn’t like to initiate contact in the paint, has some nice post moves but prefers to jack shots from the perimeter. After an embarassing performance against McGee and Blatche, Il Mago needs to throw down tonight.
Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

How about some defense?
109, 109, 110, 101, 109, 97, 108, 125, 111, 81, 98
The Raptors have kept an appointment to under 100 points three times this season, it’s a bloody shame. Hustle and defense are distinctly different things; actually, that describes Calderon to a T. The Sixers aren’t a high scoring team, so hopefully we don’t make them look like stars.

Bench Performance
The Sixers have a nice mix of crafty players and athletes on their bench, that could really be a thorn in the Raptors side. Thaddeus Young seems to always come out to play against us, and always makes me nervous he’s going to have a big night. I’d like to see Calderon regain some composure after last night’s shit show, and lead this squad. I also look forward to Kleiza’s scoring from the bench, which is a perfect spot for the guy.

Show some pride
You lost a rough one last night, and have a chance to split this four-game road swing 2-2 with a win tonight against an equally brutal Sixers team. What’s at stake tonight is being the worst team in the East; but who knows, maybe having the most ping-pong balls is a good thing.

The Line

The gamblers have the Sixers as 4 point favourites with an over/under of 207.5.

It’s weird but the loss in Miami had a satisfying flavor to it. It’s difficult for a team to go 2-0 on the Florida swing and on the rare occasion you actually pull it off, they’ll talk about you on NBA TV for days. The Jazz did it last week and it has supposedly turned their season around. The swing might have done the same for the Raptors, who represented themselves well on their travels. An impressive win in Orlando was followed by going toe-to-toe with the Heat who got enough star-calls to see them through. Not to say that the Heat weren’t deserving of the win, just stating that the refs don’t need to call ticky-tack fouls to make sure they do. And not sure where I heard this, but somebody referred to Miami’s “Big Three” as “One and a bit” which brought a smile to this blogger’s face.

The little roadtrip also confirmed things we suspected, Arse’s man Julian Wright made a case for more minutes and Joey Dorsey showed that he can pull the boards down with the best of them. Kleiza’s poor season has been magnified by Wright’s performances, and it’s easy to see the balance that Wright’s defense brings to the lineup. Wright’s defense was to be expected, his creativity on the drive wasn’t. Wright’s demonstrated some good basketball IQ with his decision-making, and even though he shot poorly against Miami, they were shots that were presented to him and if the Raptors had any chance at that game, somebody like him had to make them. When Kleiza does return, he should have to work for his minutes and nothing should be handed to him.

Tonight it’s the Wizards who fall into the category of teams we are “supposed to beat”. I’ll subscribe to that belief because John Wall is injured and he would have been the most talented player on the floor (again!), who also happens to be a point guard which happens to be the position we get torched at. Wall is averaging close to an impressive 19 points and 10 assists a game, but his shooting has been very mediocre at 43.9% (second on the team in attempts behind Blatche). His 2-6 Wizards haven’t taken advantage of playing the third easiest schedule in the league, and the problem has surprisingly been offense – they’re scoring a league-worst 99.1 points per 100 possessions. The shot distribution seems to be quite wonky as well with four guys (Blatche, Arenas, Wall and Thornton) dominating the ball. The Wizards look to be a classic case of four guys trying to get theirs.

The games in Washington have had a couple great finishes of late. There’s the Mo Pete shot with the guy yelling Canada Sucks in the background, and there’s also the Not Possible! call made possible by Anthony Parker. It’s hard to believe this, but Chris Bosh has actually delivered in the clutch on occasion, the last time it happened was in Washington.

Injuries

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Day-to-day
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Day-to-day

Washington
Andray Blatche – Knee, Will play
Yi Jianlin – Bruised Knee, Will Play
Update: John Wall – walking around on crutches, doubtful

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Wall
This is one of the games I had circled on my calendar; John Wall’s in town. You get a certain amount of hype with every new rookie coming into the league, but this one hit the ground running. I know I had my doubts; first of all he did play in Kentucky right? Wall hit the ground running, and probably the best young point guard to come out of college in a very hard time based on his early performance. He does everything: scores, passes (5th in the NBA), rebounds, plays defense (1st in steals in the NBA). Yea, it’s going to be one of those games tonight. Notice anything about his shot chart?

The kid is either scoring from the paint, or from the perimeter; no mid-range game. If I’m picking my poison tonight, it’s going to give him every shot he wants, and protect the paint. He is quick enough, and sees the floor well enough that he can be devastating off the bounce. Not sure how to keep him out of the paint thought, that’s for Triano & Co to figure out. I wont even mention Arenas comes off the bench at the point, the guy had 30pts against the Bulls on the weekend with 7 treys. There’s really no situation where the Raptors have an advantage at the point tonight, we gotta take our lumps here, keep the damage to a minimum and win match-ups at the other positions.
Edge: Wall

SG – DeRozan vs Hinrich
The good news is that DeRozan will be able to flex his athleticism tonight; the bad news, Hinrich plays fundamental. DeRozan is coming off a ridiculous weekend where he averaged 23.5pts 6.5rebs 2.5ast against some pretty solid competition. Hinrich is playing out of position in Washington (Wall had the keys to kingdom handed to him), but is still contributing at a pretty solid clip. He’s knocking down shots, moving the ball around, and playing some disruptive defense alongside Wall with those long-monkey arms of his. There’s no reason DeRozan shouldn’t attack off the dribble like he has been of late. Hinrich is a solid shooter, and if DeRozan runs over to double, he will stick jumper after jumper; he’s done it to the Raptors for years now. Hopefully the defense rotates properly, and no one gets hit with a perfect John Wall pass for an open J tonight.

Edge: DeRozan

SF – Weems vs Thornton
Raise your hand if you think Weems has earned the starting gig at small forward? The guy has really grown on me the last couple weeks, mostly because he is playing a different kind of game, by not forcing shots when he gets the ball and letting the game come to him. Thornton is a a solid scorer who has a pretty good jumper, and finishes nicely at the rim.

He doesn’t move the ball around well and makes pretty rough decisions with the ball. Sonny can have a solid night if he takes it to him off, since Al plays pretty rough defense. This is a pretty good match-up for Sonny since he’s always in attack mode, and there’s nothing Thornton can do about it. Something to note, Thornton missed the last game with a stomach ailment, and may not play tonight, if this is the case, the Wizards could start a 3-guard combo of Wall, Arenas and Hinrich, which I don’t really want to see. There’s a great deal of play making and shooting in that lot.
Edge: Weems

PF – Evans vs Blatche
Evans missed the last game against the Heat with the flu, and needs to be fully back to contend with Blatche (and McGee when Bargnani loses focus). If Evans isn’t 100%, I actually like Amir a lot better for this match-up since he can match Blatche pound-for-pound in length and athleticism, and make Andray play on both ends of the floor. Regardless, Blatch needs to be taken seriously since he’s in the early goings of a career year. The guy has improved every year since he got into the league, and is a real force right now. The Raptors are much deeper at forward than Washington, and after their starters, they can only trot out Yi Jianlin, and a couple other no-names that I’m sure we can handle. The key will be to take it to Blatche early, and force him to swing his arms around some and pick up some fouls.

He’s a pretty sweet shooting big man, who can step outside and pull Evans with him, taking him off the defensive glass. This is a big area of concern for me, since Evans (and Amir) protect take protecting our own glass very seriously. I like Evans to bang around with him, I like Amir to keep the intensity going. I like this match-up a lot for sheer entertainment, and the different looks we can throw opposing power forwards through the game.
Edge: Even

C – Bargnani vs McGee
The Wizards starting court is a big heap of long athletic dudes. Blatche lives in the paint, which is where is where Bargnani is most effective in defending. I worry that Wall rip by the defenders and force Bargnani to half-commit on rotating over, and allow some easy scores, but I digress…

Offensively, Bargnani should get lots of open looks since Blatche will have trouble keeping up with him on the perimeter, however, playing in the post may not be the best strategy since Blatche is so long and challenges so many shots in the blocks.
Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Play Big
The Raptors have a deeper front court, and can get the Wizard in trouble if Blatche and McGee get into some foul trouble. Triano can throw wave-after-wave of big man combinations until he finds a combination that keeps this lot locked down. The Wizards are the worst rebounding team in the league, do I have to spell this out? Attack the paint, crash the boards, and we should win this aspect of the game handedly.

Keep Wall Out of The Bloody Paint
Give the guy room and force him to put the team on his back and shoot his way to a win. Once he gets going off the dribble, he has the ability to hit the open guy in the right spots. Wall is prone to turnovers, so forcing him into a double on the wings (keep him out of the paint) could force him to make some bad decisions.

Don’t Give Arenas a Reason to Smile
The guy isn’t a happy camper. Sure he’s playing well since coming back from his suspension, but he’s not smiling. If the game isn’t fun for him, his motivations might not be there. I know this sounds stupid, but folks play better when they are having a good time.

No Need to Double Anyone
Force Wall into a double, but don’t send someone running at him. Let Evans/Johnson play Blatche straight up, force him to turn into a double team, but don’t send anyone running at him. I don’t want to see the Wizards rotate the ball until one of them is in a good spot to take a shot; they share the ball well (15th in the league), but the damage can be minimized if they get into a pass-and-pop situation.

The Line

No odds have been registered for this game, so it’s a toss up at this point if you’re a betting person. Considering the Raptors are on the road, this looks favourably on them to eke out a win tonight. I’m feeling pretty good about this considering how we’ve been playing of late. I do have a feeling that Wall will wreak havoc tonight though, as long as he’s not make others better around him, we should be fine.

[Editor's note: we are developing our own user-friendly guide to these metrics, but in the meantime Basketball-reference.com's glossary will come in handy. As well, some of the links need ESPN Insider access]

This article: “Keeping Score: Viewing the N.B.A. Through a Statistical Lens” couldn’t be more timely. It’s worth a read in order to see why we use these metrics.

Scoring efficiency and offensive production

Most impressive? Sonny Weems and his 60% true shooting percentage. Linas Kleiza, while only playing two games this week, still has a dismal 7.9 PER (see definition here). Yes, Jamario Moon ranks higher. His true shooting percentage is near the bottom on this team and his assist percentage (especially given high usage %) continues to tell us he’s not moving the ball enough. It’s early in the season, but has anyone else noticed we play much stronger as a TEAM with Kleiza out of the lineup? I have no backup for this comment, but I propose a team without an all-star needs rebounding, hustle plays and ball movement in order to be competitive.

Last week, we highlighted our concerns with DeMar DeRozan’s shot selection – largely surrounding taking too many long twos. His true shooting percentage is jumped up to rank 33th out of 69 players at the shooting guard position. Nice progress given a slow start to the season. Much of this is due to the last two games – you cannot ask for better performance (and shot selection) than he had versus two tough teams – Orlando and Miami:

Rebounding, defense and “hands”

Our power forwards are doing an exceptional job on the boards. On the offensive end, Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans rank second and third respectively out of ALL players. These second chance opportunities are one of the key reasons we’re able to hang around at all in recent games.

Amir’s very high turnover rate as of last week and declined dramatically. Jarrett Jack remains the worst out of our active players and has also improved from last week. His TOV% is the 11th worst among guards, but better than Rajon Rondo or Jason Kidd and similar to some guy named Steve Nash.

Lineup of the Week

Confirmed or busted?

Comment: Amir Johnson is much improved after game four and should start over Reggie Evans
Analysis: It’s pretty clear simply by watching the games, but the data is that much more insightful.

It’s certainly a huge change. Also, if we run fouls per 36 minutes for both he recorded 8.9 for the fist four and 6.7 for the last six (still too high, of course). Besides getting to the line 4 times a game (versus zero the first four), he’s shooting an impressive 91.3% from the line versus 63.8% last year. Amir is rebounding at a solid clip (although not as good as Reggie), but adds significantly more than Reggie at the offensive end.
Verdict? Confirmed.

Miscellaneous Notes

• Wonder why I became an early fan of Julian Wright? His hustle? Of course. His unselfessness? Absolutely. But more importantly, all of these intangibles and commitment to D results in being the highest ranked Raptors for two year adjusted +/-. Wonder some of us are looking for more from Bargnani? Look at who is last.
• Reggie Evans still leads the entire league in total rebound percentage. Bargnani sadly ranks 144th (with 6’3″ Jarrett Jack barely behind him
• Kevin Love is now neck and neck with Reggie Evans and an incredible 31 and 31 night
• The Raptors are 24th in points differential. We are 28th in opponent’s FG percentage. Thankfully, we are #1 in offensive rebounds – it’s the only reason we are staying in some of the games this year.
• Darko Milicic is the second worst shooting C in the league at 33.1% TS% (players with >10 MPG) and adds 2 turnovers per. Free Darko indeed.

Questions? Submissions for “confirmed or busted”? Email me: tomliston@gmail.com or find me on Twitter.

Sources: basketball-reference.com, hoopdata.com, espn.com

I’m still stunned; the best performance by a Raptor team I’ve seen in three/four years. If you didn’t know the standings, and that was the first Raptor game you saw this season, you would have thought that this is a top team in the association; that’s the kind of game that was played last night.

It’s harder to duplicate that effort on back-to-back teams, but there is an added element of playing Chris Bosh tonight, which can’t be overlooked. The Raptors have a bit of history with the Magic, and were able to flip the on switch last night. The hustle and tenacity they have showed so far, was there for the whole game. Makes you wonder if this has two speeds: play hard/aggressive for some of the game, play hard/aggressive for all of the game. That switch needs to be on tonight for the whole game; even though the Heat are 5-4, they are mighty dangerous.

I had a chance to speak with Kevin Arnovitz, super writer/blogger for ESPN TrueHoop and the Miami Heat Index about Bosh and the Heat:

What a mess this has become; the basketball is almost taking a back seat to the dog and pony show.
From the vantage point in Miami, it’s actually settling down if you can believe it. Because this team has absolutely no track record even though it’s stacked like a contender, we can expect every single big matchup to be treated like a playoff game. It’s the only measuring stick we have. And outcomes generally stoke the extremes. If they win (Orlando a couple weeks back), supporters will crown them champs. If they lose (Boston on Thursday), skeptics willl revel in schadenfreude and pronounce the Heat paper tigers. It’ll be that way most of the season.

5-4 to start the year wasn’t the result many were predicting, but the fact of the matter is that the big three in Miami was a far different animal than the big three in Boston. What will this team have to do to get back on track?
The adjustments aren’t huge. Right now, they’re 25th in the league in total rebounding differential. LeBron James and Chris Bosh are well below their usual numbers. So that’s number one. Second, they need to buy into a defensive strategy and stick to it. Erik Spoelstra generally subscribes to a Popovichian approach, but over the past week, there’s very little evidence of that on the floor. The Jazz and Hornets shredded the Heat on rotations, and Boston lured them into silly gambles and exploited them on pushed balls. Take care of those two things and the Heat will stat winning 75 percent of their games.

It was generally assumed that Bosh’s production would drop offensively, but his whole game has seemingly gone south fuelling a lot of folks up here to argue that he was just a selfish stat stuffer during his time in Toronto. What are your impressions about Bosh as a person and player after watching him closely for the last couple months? How does he get back on track?
I’m not sure that Bosh put up gaudy numbers in Toronto because he was selfish so much as he was the single best matchup on the floor on every possession, and the Raptors fashioned their entire offense around that principle. That’s simply not the case in Miami. With the Raptors, he had a 5-man who lured the other big away from the block, whereas he’s getting no help in that capacity except when Ilgauskas is on the court. He needs to put the ball on the floor more and stop ball-watching when shots go up. Personally, he’s been very, very confessional about his struggles. He’s admitted the speed of James and Dwyane Wade have made him skittish and that he’s been more deferential than he probably should be. Ironically, the best prescription for Bosh might be to a more selfish stat-stuffer when he’s got a favorable matchup and the ball comes to him at the weak side elbow. Those are *his* possessions and he should own them.

Does Wade have what it will take to let LeBron become the alpha dog on his team?
It’s tricky because, on balance, this team is putting up the offensive numbers it needs to. They’re putting up 108.5 points per 100 possessions, which tells us that except for a few stretches when the ball stops, they’re doing fine. Both guys need to get more comfortable working off the ball. LeBron did this in Cleveland, but it was with the understanding that nobody was going to supplant him as the focal point in the offense. Wade has less practice with it, but Spoelstra is running some nice sets where Wade darts up from the weak side corner past a couple of stagger screens or gets a handoff from Bosh at the pinch post. To me, it’s no so much a need for a defined Alpha and Beta as it is James and Wade coming to a mutual understanding that the team can kill it if each of them starts doing more productive work off the ball to scramble the defense.

If you could add somebody to this team in the offseason, who would it be?
What they need is a Marcus Camby (who is unavailable) — rebounder/shot blocker who doesn’t need the ball, but can keep it moving and make plays.There aren’t a lot of players like that available. But a healthy Joel Przybilla could help. Tyson Chandler will be a free agent, but he might be out of their price range and is also susceptible to injuries.

Injury Report

Toronto
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Day-to-day
Ed Davis – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Out
David Andersen – Pretty sure he’s out again

Miami
Mike Miller – Thumb, Out

Match-ups

PG – Jack/Calderon vs Arroyo/Chalmers
Since the Heat have both Wade and LeBron who handle the ball so much, the point guard situation for them is interesting. Neither Arroyo or Chalmers are big components of this team, with the bulk of their contributions coming on the defensive end, checking the opponents point guards. Offensively, they are reduced to hitting open jumpers/threes when they get them, and generally not screwing up. This should be an area of focus for the Raptors tonight, since the Heat struggle when they play teams with solid point guard play. Both Jack and Calderon are settling into a rotation that saw both struggle to start the season. Jack will need to continue attacking off the dribble, while Calderon has to maintain his control over the flow of the game offensively, feeding off the pick-n-roll with Johnson and hitting the shots that come to him. After fighting Jameer Nelson hard last night, there might not be much in the tank tonight, but they are off till Tuesday, so finding the second wind tonight will be crucial.
Edge: Jack/Calderon

SG – DeRozan vs Wade
DeRozan was absolutely brilliant last night, taking it to Vince Carter every single minute of the game, running around, crashing the boards…basically contributing at a very high level. Wade is a much better defender than Carter, and he’s coming off a God awful performance against the Celtics, so we can expect a nasty chip on his shoulder. DeRozan owned the paint/elbow/top of the key last night, and attacking from there opens up the court for the rest of the team when the Miami defense collapses on him, much like what happened last night.

One of the best ways to play Wade is to make him play on both ends of the floor, forcing him to play tough and try to get him into foul trouble. Should be noted that DeRozan did play 40 minutes last night in a very hard fought/emotional game, so getting him off early to get the adrenaline pumping will be key. Asking him to win this match-up is not fair, but we can ask him to play as hard as possible and put Wade under pressure from the tip.
Edge: Wade

SF – Weems vs LeBron
After starting the season forcing the action, Weems has really fallen into his niche of letting the game come to him, attacking off the dribble and hitting his shots. I don’t like saying this, but the injury to Kleiza was a bit of a blessing in disguise in that Weems adds a level of athleticism that Linas just doesn’t have. It was a big cog in the Raptor run-and-gun machine last night, and will be a very important piece tonight against LeBron. That being said, there is nothing anything in the world can do to shut down LeBron since he contributes in every facet of the game. Much like the DeRozan/Wade match-up, Weems needs to make James play defense, and run him around. On offense, his jump shooting will keep LeBron far enough from the rim that his spectacular rebounding wont be as big a factor; he will still grab plenty boards, but it should give Reggie one less person to worry about on every board. I was never a fan of calling Weems ‘Money’, but after last night, the nickname sticks for me. Hitting a game winning shot from behind the arc finally earns him such a big nickname.

Should be mentioned that Julian Wright has played damn good at the small forward spot the last few games. I like his length and agility on LeBron (not that he will stop him, but he could slow the guy down). His contribution on defense will be paramount.
Edge: James

PF – Evans vs Bosh
Haters unite, tonights your chance to rip Bosh up in the comments, chat and twitter. The hate being spewed at Chris has been epic, and more so than what Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady ever got from us. It only goes to show how important, and how tied woven into the teams identity Bosh has become over the years. Evans played Howard perfectly last night. While Howard still had a monsterish night (25pts 8reb 5blk), most of his points came as the garbage variety where the Raptors had a hard time matching his sheer physical prowess. Bosh doesn’t have those gifts, and will be working outside-in as he does. I like Evans in that role since he can put pressure on Bosh outside the paint, then keep him on his back when the shot goes up (limiting his rebounding effectiveness). Unlike Howard though, Bosh wont be missing 10 free throws in a game, so putting him on the line, and tempting him to beat us from there will be a terrible strategy. Bosh is right around 15pts 6rebs a night, which was expected to a degree, except for the rebounding. He has trouble playing at the speed Wade and James operate, so if this becomes a run and gun game, his contribution will be minimized.

I do expect to see Bosh play Bargnani on defense quite a bit this game, with Joel Anthony checking Evans in the paint, and am really looking forward to see how this plays out. Bosh has the quickness to stay with Bargnani off the dribble, and should know enough not to go for his pump fakes at the arc.

Wifee is pissed at me since I broke plans to watch this game, this is how important playing Bosh is for me this season. Beating him to a pulp would be sweet for me, and if Evans plays him the way I think he will, the Republic will treat him to a steak at Jacob & Co.

Haslem will have a big say tonight, and can’t be overlooked because he does everything right on the floor, and can pull Evans out of paint with his mid-range and away from the glass.
Edge: Evans (yea, I said it)

C – Bargnani vs Anthony
A mistake the Raptors did last night was not forcing the ball to Bargnani a bit more in the 3rd quarter, to maintain that ridiculous zone he was in, in the first half (9-12 from the field for 21pts). A lot of that had to do with Orlando sending a double at Bargnani, but a lot had to do with the game-plan coming out of the half. Compared to the last week or so, Bargnani should own Anthony tonight. How he handles Bosh when they match-up will be the key tonight. I’m basically looking for a repeat from last night, anything less, and this bad boy can get ugly fast.
Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Play Big
The Heat don’t have the same athletic front court the Raptors do. Between Evans, Johnson, Bargnani and Dorsey (to a smaller degree), the Raptors have the horses to really take it to a weakish front line that’s full of old men (Ilgauskas and Magloire). Haslem wont be breaking the game wide open, Anthony is only here because the Heat had no other choice which really leaves Bosh, who isn’t a big fan of the physical play, although he’s great at drawing contact and getting to the ine.

Substitutions
The injury situation has forced Triano’s hand into playing a tight rotation without the hockey substitutions, which we all know is how this game should be played. Making 4-5 guy chances disrupts the flow of the game for the Raptors, and has been a big piece of why they haven’t played well. The Heat have the luxury of fielding a team, where the best player in the world can play 5 positions. Triano (I’m just putting this out there) and Carlesimo’s ability to put out the best lineup will be crucial, especially considering that the Raptor starters played heavy minutes last night.

Sticking it to Bosh
This game needs to be more than just winning another game. Last night, the Raptors went into Orlando on a 6 game losing streak, and needing to stop the bleeding. They were able to dig deep and get a result that helped heal the team. Tonight, we play the guy who left us for greener pastures. I for one hold Bosh’s tenure in Toronto in high regard, and have nothing bad to say about him; but if we use his departure as motivation, it could serve as an ex-factor to fueling a win. Think about it, how sweet would it be to leave Florida beating 2 of the 3 elite teams in the East, where you’re ex-franchise player calls home?

The Line

The Heat are 15 point favourites with an over/under of 200.5.

How much the Raptors have left in the tank after an emotional game, and their ability to dig deep and summon the will to beat another elite team will determine this game. I will say this though, we will know very quickly how this game turns out. The 1st quarter will be telling.

We had a pretty good turn out for live chat, considering expectations were low for the game. I expect tonight to be super bumping on Twitter, Facebook and Live Chat; support the habbit.

The Raptors have it tough for the next 10 days; four of the next six games are against playoff teams, and three of those teams are elite. It kicks off tonight in Orlando and it’s not going to be a pretty one. We’ve talked ad nauseam about what this team is (isn’t) capable of, how good (or bad) certain players are, and the job security of one coach. What we need to consider is that this season is a wash. The Raptors aren’t good enough to do anything, and the lineup shouldn’t be tinkered with to fight for a playoff spot because it will jeopardize the teams future in doing so.

Khandor hit the nail on the head with his piece after the Bobcats game:

COMPONENTS OF A GOOD LOSS FOR THE RAPTORS THIS SEASON

1. Their opponent is a team with more NBA level talent on their roster than Toronto.
2. The game’s final outcome is only decided in the last 30 seconds of play.
3. At no point during the game does Toronto fall behind by more than 10 points.
4. At no point during the game does Toronto go ahead by more than 15 points.
5. DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis – only once he is 100% healthy, again – receive at least 20+ minutes of PT, including at the start of quarters #1 and #3, plus during the last 6 minutes of quarter #4 [and, in any overtime session which might be played].

The long term objective for the Toronto Raptors this season should be focused, exclusively, on obtaining the future rights to a Top 3 Pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Anything which, in fact, moves the team closer to achieving THIS specific goal next summer is a good thing for this franchise heading towards the future.

Something to think about.

Life got in the way, and I got stood up by the Orlando blogger, but here are the questions I asked (I’ll update this with his answers if he gets them to me today):

1. What’s going on with Rashard Lewis? Vince Carter got a lot of flack for his poorish performance in the playoffs, but Lewis was just as bad, averaging 12.9pts 5.6rebs 2.3ast. His play has seemed to seep into this season. I’m clearly missing something.
2. Jameer Nelson has been a big part of this team’s recent success, but his injuries make it difficult for the team to be consistent (shuffling guys here and there). Williams and Duhon are capable backups, but seriously. At what point does Otis Smith say “enough’s enough” and go out and make a splash to upgrade the point?
3. A lot has been said about Gortat and Bass not being happy with their playing time. Gortat especially didn’t seem happy the Magic matched the contract Dallas extended him. I’m not sure where I’m going with this, but they could be valuable pieces to upgrade this roster; please comment.
4. Even though they lost the first meeting with Miami, I like how this teams matches up against them. The Celtics on the other hand could pose some big problems. What are Orlando’s prospects of getting back into the finals this year?
5. Almost a joke to ask, but what is the strategy coming in against the Raptors?

Injury Report

Toronto
Jarrett Jack – Sore Knee, Will Play
Reggie Evans – Bruised Left Hip, Gametime Decision
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Doubtful
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Out
Ed Davis – Out

Orlando
Jameer Nelson – Hurting, Will Play
Vince Carter – LOL, Will Play

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Nelson
The guys been killing our PG’s for years: he’s quick enough to beat them off the dribble, strong enough to knock them off tilt and hits every single bloody shot he takes against us. It’s very frustrating. He is coming back from an injury, but it didn’t stop him from playing well against the Jazz (even though the team lost) chipping in 19pts 7ast. Based on everything we’ve seen so far this season, I don’t see how Jack/Calderon have any chance tonight. Might be nice to see Banks get some run and step up defensively, but we know that’s not going to happen; why would it?
Edge: Nelson

SG – DeRozan vs Carter
After starting the season strong, he has utterly fallen apart the last three games, averaging 4.3pts 2.7rebs while shooting 33% from the field. Yes, the match-ups weren’t in his favour, but since when is that an excuse to put up Marcus Banks numbers? Carter owns us. Period. He might be in the twilight of his career, but he still can light it up, and is actually playing efficiently all things considered (52%FG 44%3FG 20.68PER). Only Amir Johnson is as productive as Carter with a PER of 21.39. It’s a nice game for DeMar to come out of his funk from, since VC wont be able to keep up with him if he gets going. Like most nights, he has the tools to make life difficult for folks, it’s just a matter of being focused and having your head in the game.
Edge: Carter

SF – Kleiza vs Lewis
It’s lose-lose at the 3. If Kleiza’s achilles is still bothering him, there’s no way he can hang with Lewis. If he can’t even play, the Raptors have no one who can begin to match-up here. Weems, while athletic, doesn’t have the size to bother Lewis (6″10). While Kleiza isn’t 6″10 either, he does have some strength which can compensate. At the end of the day, Lewis is only averaging 11pts 6rebs (all for the low-low price of $20mil), but if folks start doubling Howard (like I wish they wouldn’t but know they will), there’s going to be a lot of open shots for the guys on the perimeter.
Edge: Lewis

PF – Evans vs Anderson / C – Bargnani vs Howard
I have a feeling the front court is going to get messy, and will see the following match-ups (humour me here):

Raptors Playing Defense
Bargnani/Howard & Evans/Anderson
We all know Bargnani wont stop Howard, but the killer part here is that since Anderson likes to live on the perimeter, Evans will be out of position to rebound on the defensive glass. Bargnani has no chance on Howard, and this could get messy fast. I expect Amir to get some heavy minutes if he can play with his head and stay out of foul trouble; even Dorsey should see some time. This situation neutralizes the only reason to start Evans alongside Bargnani, and exposes how bad this front court really is.

Raptors Playing Offense
Bargnani/Anderson & Evans/Howard
I don’t see Howard playing out on the perimeter with Bargnani. The Magic are the 2nd best defensive team, and 4th best rebounding team for a reason: Dwight Howard is a beast in the paint. Evans is a bad enough offensive player that Howard can essentially roam free and help everywhere, and recover fast enough to challenge Reggie in the paint. Anderson moves well enough that he can keep up with Bargnani, but probably wont prevent him from dropping 17+. I don’t think the Magic will care since they will basically be dictating the flow of the game, and Howard will be there to clean up anyone attacking the rim.
Edge: Anderson & Howard

Keys to the Game

Play with Heart
The expectation tonight is not to win, but rather to play with some pride. There is a moral victory to be had here if at the end of the game the Raptors can say they did their best, but still lost. The gain here is continuing the aggressive play they’ve shown us, not getting down big early, fighting for every possession, and making smart plays.

Pray to Jah
Seriously. It will take every Raptor, hitting on all cylinders, not making mistakes and sticking a lot of shots for this to be a contest. The Magics bench is pretty scary too, which compounds the problem: Mickael Pietrus, Brandon Bass, Martin Gortat, JJ Reddick…they are better at every possible match-up and combination of lineups.

The Line

The Magic are 14 point favourites, at home with a full days rest.

Looking to have some food, drinks and good times with other Raptor fans? Come check out Raptor Fan Fridays at The Sports Center Cafe.

As always, we got Twitter, Facebook and Live Chat; pick your poison.