I thought that Indiana game was a bit closer than it seemed; the Pacers hit every single crucial shot they had, and still only won by 5. You have to figure if Amir caught one of the two passes in the key that he missed (either would have finished in a dunk), the Raptors made a stop down the stretch, or the Pacers missed on of the many shots they shouldn’t have hit, the Raps could be 2-0 right now. That’s my glass is half-full moment, down to business.

The defending champs host the Raptors for what will be their 4th game in 6 nights; on the second night of a back-to-back having played the Thunder in Oklahoma. That’s a lot of wear and tear for an aging team who is 0-3 to start the season. That said, these are the defending champs with a war-tested lineup; can’t take them lightly.

I had a chance to talk with Ian Levy and Rob Mahoney of The Two Man Game about the Mavs:

True or False: Cuban and Nelson don’t get enough credit for the teams they’ve been fielding for the last decade.

Ian I think they get the right amount of credit. Cuban is known for be willing to spend and for letting the basketball people make the decisions. Nelson has shown a great understanding of timing, not just buying low and selling high, but knowing when the structure of the team needs to go in a different direction.

Rob True. I don’t want to instill the Mavericks with more of a victim complex than they already have (sorry, Shawn Marion — I meant to say “World Champion Mavericks,”), but building and maintaining a contender for more than a decade is no small feat. Dallas may only have one title to show for all of Cuban and Nelson’s hard work, but they played some incredible basketball for 11 straight seasons. That’s damn impressive.

The Mavs retooled in the off-season, replacing Chandler w/ Odom, signing VC and Delonte; without jeopardizing their 2012 cap situation I must add. I look up and down this roster and feel this team is better than the one that won the championship last year; thoughts?

Ian The team that won the championship last season was not the same team they had on paper, it was a beautiful origami construction, using that paper as a raw material. These first two losses for the Mavericks are a reminder that they need to take what they have and make it into something much greater.

Rob I’d give Lamar Odom a slight edge over Tyson Chandler in whatever universal comparison of basketball players I can muster, Vince Carter is fairly comparable to Caron Butler (if you count him in your estimations of the championship team), and Delonte West is better than J.J. Barea. But as a team? I’d say this roster is a bit inferior; Chandler, Barea, and even DeShawn Stevenson were perfect fits for this particular team, while the new pieces contribute to a less complete overall product.

This season could finally be the one that Jason Kidd’s body says “enough’s enough”? With Dirk potentially having a couple more elite seasons in him in the front court, wouldn’t the priority heading into the summer be signing Deron Williams as a free agent target?

Ian Absolutely, but it sounds a lot like one of those “hometown loyalty” pipe-dreams. The Mavericks need to be proactive in building a roster for the future. Adding a player of Williams’ caliber would be tremendous, but the possibility seems too tenuous to be the centerpiece of a plan.

Rob Both are possibilities; Kidd’s drop-off could come without warning, and Dallas has very real interest in acquiring Williams. But it’s one strategy, not the strategy. The Mavs aren’t banking on age-old ties to a high school to bring in Williams, just as they won’t be banking on an age-old point guard to guide them into the next era. Nelson and Cuban are staying flexible, being mindful of their spending, and playing it by ear. They obviously have some tentative plans in place, but overall their outlook is more of a flow chart than an agenda.

Call the game

Ian My apologies to the Raptors fans but I think the Mavericks get on track with a win tonight.

Rob I’ll say Dallas wins a tight one. The Mavs looked much improved against the Thunder on Thursday night, and while they’re sure to be weary after their down-to-the-wire loss, I see them building on their performance in Friday’s game. They’ll have their hands full with a more active Raptors team, but I think the Mavs get it done for their first win of the season.

Match-Ups

Point Guard
I know we’re just two games into the season, but the Raptors are 8th in defense. Don’t rip me a new one, I realize it’s ony two games, but when the hell have we ever been top 10 in defense? Some of that starts with Calderon on the perimeter not doing his clapping hands routine. The one thing that has me concerned about Kidd after watching Paul George have all the time in the world the other night from beyond the arc, is Kidd being put in the same spot; otherwise, keeping him under control shouldn’t be  a mission for Calderon (and Bayless who is my 2nd least favourite Raptor after Magloire).
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
DeRozan played ball all summer, is young, in great shape, a gym rat…yet still has been having a tough time with catching a rhythm early in games. Had it not been for an epic 2nd half against the Pacers, everyone would be pretty ‘meh’ on the kid right now. That said, his shot has looked really good this year. Barbosa has given us exactly what we’ve expected from the get-go (stayed fresh in Brazil while the rest of the league played XBOX and such). The Mavs have two guys over 34 (Terry/Carter) and a head case (West). So while Carter’s best days are behind him, Terry still has some gas in the tank, and has been playing well so far. West is the only one of the lot who plays any defense, but I have a suspicion the Mavs will give the Raptors just enough wiggle room that they will find their offensive stride.
Edge: Mavericks

Small Forward
James Johnson can play defense, rebound, and dunk in transition, and…that’s about it. He should never be allowed to shoot another jumper or put the ball on the floor, again. That said, he’s loads better than Weems. Marion on the other hand hasn’t been to the free throw line yet this season. This troubles me, especially considering he still insists on shooting 3s. Regardless, he’s still got enough to completely nullify anything (Rasual Butler, seriously?) the Raptors can throw at him at the 3, and give Bargnani some fits if Dallas ever goes small ball. The 3-spot quickly falls off after Marion, but they are deep enough to trot out some interesting lineup combinations.
Edge: Mavericks

Power Forward
Nowitzki > Bargnani. Bargs is making strides, nice ones, but there’s nothing else to talk about here.
Edge: Mavericks

Center
One day I’m actually going to put together my list of players I loathe; Brendan Haywood will be on that list, close to the top. I hate how the Raptors single handedly made him look like a star when he played for the Wizards. I did enjoy how after the Mavs handed him that retarded contract of his, they realized they wouldn’t be able to win anything with him as their starting center, then went and got themselves Chandler; that must have been fairly emasculating. So he will have a couple dunks, miss everything from the line and be pretty invisible for the night. Odom may or may not finally wake up and actually choose to contribute, and knowing the Raptors luck it could be tonight, but I like the center-by-committee the Raptors can field against this lot.
Edge: Raptors

The Line

The gamblers have the Mavs as 9.5 point favourites with an over/under of 196. I’m really torn on this one, on the one-hand it’s hard to imagine the Mavs losing their 4th game in a row to start the season at home to the Raptors, but on the other hand they are giving up 110 points a game.  Mavs by 3, bet against the line.

Arsenalist has a Breaking It Down post dropping after lunch; check it out.

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Linas Kleiza – Out

Dallas
Caron Butler – Out

Player Report

Jose Calderon
Friday was a low point for Jose since taking full control of the starting unit. 0pts 7ast in 24mins; much like the rest of the team (Bargnani/Barbosa/Davis excluded) he was pretty flat. 0-3 from the field, no trips to the line. Are you serious? This only serves to strengthen our draft position, but it’s out of his character to dog it on the court. Either he’s hurt, or he’s tired. Regardless, he wont need to worry about a fast point guard who can beat him off the dribble tonight. Jason Kidd turns 38 in a month, but he’s no Steve Nash, and is more reputation than production at this point.

The Mavs are 8th in the league in defense, and while they have guys like Chandler patrolling the key, you have to give Kidd some credit for being part of a team committed to D. The guy still rebounds the ball very well, is an exceptional passer and can hit open threes. Jose needs to attack the old man, make him work in transition and not leave him open at the top of arc for the long ball. I’m smelling a comeback game, even though I’ve been calling for it all it.
Box: 10pts 11ast 5rebs

DeMar DeRozan
I liked that technical he got on Friday, love seeing my guys fired up and pissed off. It was disappointing that he only got to the line twice against a weak (I’m be generous here) Suns defense. There were all kinds of lanes that he could have taken to the rim, but the offense was disjointed, and everything seemed like it was one-and-done. Hard to get going in those circumstances, but he still managed a pretty decent showing. Still, two trips to the line, that’s pretty brutal. Looking back on his year, when he shoots at least 6 free throws, he’s scored at least 20 points (note: there were three cases where he took a great deal of shots to get past 20 though). Getting to the line = being aggressive with the ball = attacking the defense = jumpers not the main course for the evening.

He’s got Beaubois tonight in a match-up he should own. The Mavs are very reluctant to trade the kid, and while he’s nice, I don’t know that he’s good enough to justify not making moves to bring in savior  vets who make better decisions with the ball. Much like the Cavs not wanting to part with JJ Hickson when Amar’e was on the table. Rodrigue will be a pest with his speed and quick hands, but he doesn’t have the size to really bother our boy. Heres to hoping for 8 trips to the line.
Box: 20pts 4rebs

James Johnson
I’m starting to like him a lot, more than Wright. I do have one question though: how did he jump the line so quickly when Wright is as good defensively, but better on the offensive end? Also, if his starting gig holds, how much do you think it will cost Weems as a free agent this summer? Personally, I don’t care if he scores if he keeps giving us that defense on the wing; it was how I felt with Wright, but I like this kid more, must be the Iverson arm sleeve he wears.

I love Peja, wish we held on to him if for no other reason than have him sit on the bench with the pimp suit and nicely combed part in his hair. Since being traded, he’s averaging 11pts 3rebs 1ast 1stl while sticking two treys a game. Granted he gives very little on defense, so there will be plenty of opportunities for JJ to get to the rim.
Box: 7pts 7rebs 1stl 2blk

Amir Johnson
Not sure what Friday was, but I expected much more from Amir against the Suns. He’s averaging 8.6pts 5.4rebs 1ast 1.4blk, nothing to write home about especially since we were getting used to him approaching double-double’s on a regular basis. Could be time to start thinking about using his energy off the bench and giving Davis some burn as a starter, I see no downside. He’s going to need all the energy he can muster against Chandler, who’s playing for another $10mil/year contract in the summer. I’m still pretty pissed we lost out on him in the summer, and have been meaning to write a post all year on what this team would look like had that Bobcats trade gone through (Jack/Bayless, DeRozan, Diaw, Bargnani, Chandler w/ Davis, Johnson, Barbosa, Kleiza off the bench – that’s good for 45 wins with a very manageable cap situation and young player development; sigh). You know he’s going to want to avenge that pathetic 3pt 6reb performance in the loss earlier in the season.
8pts 14rebs 2blk

Andrea Bargnani
Friday against the Suns was a bizzarro night where I tweeted this. Loved Andrea’s performance, even though he only grabbed 4 boards (the team as a whole was doing a sub-par rebounding job). Nowitzki is going to be a tough check for Bargnani, since he’s a better rebounding version of himself. Still, I’m looking forward to watching this match-up since both were absent during the Raptor win earlier this season.
23pts 6rebs 1blk

The Line

The gamblers have the Mavs as 5.5 point favourites with an over/under of 207.5. I just don’t see the Raptors getting that close. If you think we will see the same thing as the win earlier in the season, you have to realize a few things:

1. The Mavs without Nowitzki are a bunch of old guys who can’t score in the paint
2. Ed Davis put up the best game of his rookie season with 17pts 12rebs (made up for the lost Bargnani production)
3. The Mavs are currently on a streak of 15 wins in the their last 16 games as they gear up for the playoffs

This is going to be a totally different kind of game, and if the Raptors come out with the same energy as Friday, this game will be lost in the 2nd quarter.

1. Rid us of Turkoglu
2. Bring in a complimentary piece to Bosh

The fact of the matter is that Bosh wont be making a decision until he is allowed to talk to some teams, and see what they have to offer; at which point he will either sign on the dotted line, or give Colangelo his short list of teams he wants to play for.

Either way, unless we trade yet another lottery pick (and throw DeRozan in), I expect this trade to make the Raptors better in both the short/long run. Take that however you want, but we all have another week to go nuts on the ESPN trade machine.

I had a chance to talk to Rob Mahoney from The Two Man Game about the Mavericks, and what the f*ck happened.

Sam Holako: WTF happened???

Rob Mahoney: Well, that depends on who you ask. Talk to the Maverick faithful, and the team peaked too early; after riding a big winning streak following the Mavs’ acquisitions at the deadline, the team had faded going into the playoffs. Talk to the realists, and they’ll tell you of a Dallas team that never could quite get it together defensively, and lacked the offensive versatility to protect Dirk from aggressive coverage. Ask an extremist, and you’ll likely hear stories of how centuries-old prophecies as told by soothsayers around the globe foretold of Rodrigue Beaubois’ ascension, and Rick Carlisle’s stubborn denial of the rookie’s destiny led to an extended fourth quarter benching in the decisive Game 6 and a destruction of the natural order of the universe.

Needless to say, it’s all a bit complicated. Still, the easy part is that the team just wasn’t ready. They weren’t good enough on either side of the ball to get past San Antonio in the first round — much less a potential match-up with Phoenix or L.A. later in the playoffs — even if they fell just short in almost every loss.

SH: One thing I have admired about the Mavs/Cuban is that they have continually retooled via big moves in an effort to win a championship (Butler, Haywood, and Marion). However, I’m not so sure Carlisle was/is the right guy for the job (although I’m a big fan of his). You touched on his benching of Beausboise a little; while I’m not convinced he would have saved the season if played, I can’t help but think that specific event was symptomatic of a larger issue. Is it time to reduce Kids role on the Mavs and increase Patrices? Does Carlisle have what it takes to make this happen without things detiorating?

RM: I really do think he can make it happen. Carlisle has shown a lot of flexibility during his time in Dallas (his reluctance to play Beaubois was the exception, not the rule), and that’s crucial. I mean, he benched Caron Butler in a playoff game. It was the right move, but the real question is how many coaches would even be willing to do that? That was a lot of salary left sitting on the bench and a former All-Star, but Caron was hurting the offense and Carlisle knew it.

Coaches need to be willing to play whichever players give the team the best chance to win, regardless of standing or reputation. Carlisle has shown that he’s willing to do that (except with Beaubois, apparently, but again that’s more a fluke), and he’ll continue to alter the rotation until he’s satisfied.

For what it’s worth, the Mavs — from Rick Carlisle to Mark Cuban to Donnie Nelson — have made it clear that Beaubois will have a bigger role next season, both playing off the ball as he did this past season and with more time as the back-up point. That probably won’t indicate much of a drop-off for Kidd, but the team may be more conservative with Jason’s minutes in the regular season.

SH: What’s this kids upside? Not very often you hear people scream about benching a late first round pick in favour of Jason Kidd.

RM: It’s incredibly high. The physical tools are all there — the speed, the length, the athleticism, the body control — and once he finds ways to properly utilize all of his gifts, he’s going to be a force. In the meantime, he was only second on the team in points per minute, led all rookies in PER and true shooting percentage, and shot 50-40-80 from the field. He doesn’t have a ton of experience, but at the same time I wouldn’t call him “raw”; his instincts serve him well. He’s coming along at the defensive end as well, but he played defense like a rookie. I expect a little more nuance in his defensive performances in year two, with a better understanding of opposing players’ tendencies, how he fits into a team defensive concept, etc.

I see no reason why Beaubois can’t be a star in this league for a long time. All of the components are there, it just takes time and a little opportunity.

SH: An issue that has split Raptor fans into two groups is the notion of Chris Bosh as a max player. Some of us, myself included, feel that he is an elite level player in the league who is worthy of a max contract (in terms of his worth on a championship team, I feel he’s more a Pippen than a Jordan), while others violently disagree. I want to ask that question of you, can a championship team be built around Nowitzki at this stage of his career? Is he a max player? Would the Mavs be better off dealing him and rebuilding around Beaubois?

RM: For the record, I think Bosh is a max player and I’ll defend that notion to the grave. Similarly, Nowitzki is still a max player, even if he may take a lower-than-max deal to help out the team.

You can still build an offense around Dirk Nowitzki, it’s just not the easiest thing in the world. There is no template to follow, because Dirk isn’t a traditional low-post player or a super-quick point guard or an athletic swingman. The league has never seen anything quite like Dirk; there have been players with similar skills, but no one that combines Nowitzki’s unique versatility, talent, and efficiency. He just needs the right components around him on both ends of the court to secure a title, and he’s never really had that.

Even in 2006 when the Mavs went to the Finals, the thing that really put Dallas over the top was Devin Harris’ ability to penetrate. Harris is the only post-Nash point guard the Mavs have had that could really attract defensive attention. Jason Kidd, for all of his talents, doesn’t command coverage. He doesn’t penetrate particularly well, and he’s not forcing defenses to adapt to his movements. Similarly, Erick Dampier has been the most successful center of the Nowitzki era. I appreciate Damp more than anyone, but if the Mavs had a superior center in the last few seasons, Dirk could have a title to his name.

He still could, but it’s going to take some kind of adjustment. The guys currently on the roster — Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, et al — are talented, but probably not talented enough nor do they possess ideal skill sets. It doesn’t take a monumental change, but Dallas needs a few upgrades, and given that, Nowitzki could still be competitive for a title. There may be a day when the Mavs would be wise to build around Beaubois, but it’s not today. Or tomorrow. And probably not the day after that, either.

SH: Nowitzki isn’t getting any younger, but he still has a few years at an elite level in him. Cuban has shown the chops to make things happen, and has continually loaded up year after year with players that have put together great regular season teams, but failed in the playoffs. What players should he be targeting this offseason to compliment Dirk; or is trading Dirk the only answer?

RM: If I had my pick of any potential acquisition, I’d shoot for Dwyane Wade. Not exactly a great center that can anchor a defense, but he’s an elite scorer, a terrific playmaker, and an excellent defender that fills a positional need. That said, Wade won’t be giving the Mavs the time of day, which makes some of the other players that could be on the market this summer — guys like Joe Johnson and Andre Iguodala — far more reasonable targets.

Bosh is a bit of an odd fit in Dallas. Offensively, he’d be a dream, but I’m skeptical of Bosh and Dirk’s ability to coexist on defense. That said, he’s a hell of a player, and if the Mavs had a shot of nabbing him, they’d do their best to take that shot.

That shot would be something like Erick Dampier (or really, his instantly expiring contract that wouldn’t cost Toronto a penny), Rodrigue Beaubois, and DeShawn Stevenson’s expiring contract. If the Mavs were particularly desperate, they could agree to take on Hedo Turkoglu in exchange for Caron Butler, but that would sour the deal rather substantially in my opinion. It’s not a knockout for the Raps, but I honestly don’t see Toronto getting any return value better than Beaubois; he’s young, talented, and inexpensive, and would really only come with the additional cost of Stevenson’s one-year $4.15 million deal. Beaubois may not be Chris Bosh, but he’d be an excellent young piece that when paired with DeMar DeRozan, could give Toronto the most athletic (and one of the most exciting) backcourts in the league.

–

Damn interesting proposal if you ask me. Have to say, if Bosh said he didn’t want to play for the Raptors anymore, and the Mavs agreed to take Turkoglu in a S&T, gotta say this deal gives us lots of options in the short and long term.

I’m on Twitter.

The one thing I was thinking about while watching the Knicks game was that the Raptors need to focus and execute for a full 48 minutes against the Mavs to have a chance at taking the game. While the Knicks were mounting their comeback, thoughts of Nowitzki nailing shot after shot were dancing through my head. Unlike the Knicks, the Mavs are a great team. From what I have seen/read, they are next in line in the West in terms of championship potential in the West.

The Raptors have building a 20 point lead down to a science. They are great at it. Winning by 20 is another story. The Mavs are great at spotting the Raptors a 20 point, then slowly taking it away. What hurts the most is that you know there is nothing that can be done to stop it. The Mavs are perfectly constructed to beat the Raptors on any given night .The script almost writes itself:

Passing the Torch
Since Bargnani got to the league, he’s been the next coming of Dirk. To his credit, he has shown, in stretches, that he is capable of  having the same impact on the game. A crucial match-up. Nowitzki is going to get his points, so will Bargnani, but the one who also does the intangibles (rebounding, weak side blocks, clutch play) will have the most impact for their team.

The Sales Pitch
Bosh is a free agent. Bosh is from Dallas. Dallas likes Bosh (the city). Dallas wants Bosh. Dallas can show Bosh that his addition to the team could push them over the top. Bosh has a lot to think about. Just watch Cuban, every time Bosh looks in his direction, he will smile, wink and nod his head approvingly.

The Guy We Should Have Kept vs The Guy We Ended Up Getting
The title pretty much says it all. Marion represents a perfect compliment to Bosh and Bargnani. The guy rebounds the hell out of the ball and would be that second rebounder on the offensive glass when Bargs is on the perimeter. On the defensive end, he is that lock-down guy who would limit dribble-penetration much more than what is going on now. Oh, Marion doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective on either end of the floor.

Supporting Actors
While Calderon has always excelled at coming off the bench, Jason Terry is the best in the game. He gets on the court, and is istant offense. Makes you pay for giving him space, and makes teams jealous that a starter level player has no problems coming off the bench – we could all be so lucky. After Terry, the Dallas bench gets pretty rough. The Raptors are deeper and more versatile, and need to take advantage. Amir will get burn, and actually need to do something with it. Belinelli/Weems/Wright will all get a shot at covering Howard/Marion, and should actually get good results on Howard who has been playing through an injury all year and not at the All-Star level he once was.

This game is a crucial one, aside from the fact that we dropped one against Indiana, we have a back-to-back against Cleveland and Milwaukee (sadly Milwaukee is the second night). It’s another statement game that they can build off the Friday win in New York, and take it to the Mavs who aren’t used to the cold and early game times.

I can only see this game going into one of two directions: 1) The Mavs just get out to a big lead and coast; 2) The Raptors get out to a lead, the Mavs chip away at it, take control in the 3rd, then coast to a win. What I am more concerned with is the manner in which the Raptors play. No easy buckets, no cheap ones, play through screens (there will be a lot coming), run Kidd into a seizure, and do it for a full 48.

The Point: Calderon had his second solid game in a row, but needs to get the guys more involved. He did a great job of pushing the ball, then pulling back at the last moment until everyone else caught up. Jack needs to not shoot the ball as much, and just attack the rim. I didn’t even realize Kidd was playing,
Matchup: Raptors

The Skill: DeRozan had his worst game of the year. Belinelli did even less. Howard in his first game of the season looked like he didn’t skip a beat. Terry picked up where Josh left off, taking it up three notches, and scored every-time he wanted too.
Matchup: Mavericks

The Swingman: Turkoglu’s worst game as a Raptor. Hit an acrobatic shot to start the 1st, but nothing else for the rest of the game. Wright did a decent job of attacking the paint, but once he got there, he kept losing his dribble. Was much worse from the perimeter, needs to stop shooting threes. Marion ran the break, crashed the boards, gave Hedo fits on defense, and proved why the Raptors made the wrong choice during the summer.
Matchup: Mavericks

The Big: Bosh continued his new-found swagger. The key = his home, but there is only so much one man can do. Johnson held his own when he saw the floor, but the night belonged to Dirk. Zeh Jerman hit dagger after dagger pacing the Mavs early, and pulling away in the 3rd quarter.
Matchup: Mavericks

The Strong: Bargnani didn’t get enough looks in the 4th when he was feeling it, but didn’t really matter as it would have been padding during a loss. Still, our boy looks comfortable out there, and owned Dampier.
Matchup: Raptors

Player of the Game: Dirk Nowitzki – 29pts grebes 4ast 2stl +16

The Mavs are an interesting team. I wonder how Cuban wakes up every morning after pulling that trade last season for Kidd. He got a lifeline the first time around when Stackhouse opened his big stupid mouth, but he failed to see it as a sign, and mortgaged the future for no real good reason (it’s not like they are a contender anymore).

Dallas is coming off a pretty solid win over the Thunder, where Nowitzki dropped 41. They hold a 2 game lead for the 8th spot in the West (ahead of the Suns no less). Seems like they win the privilege of meeting the Lakers in the 1st round as Stoudemire has been lost for the season with a detached retina. They are 6-4 in their last 10, but sport a 21-8 home record.

I couldn’t decide between the 4 of them.

The Raptors just ended a two game winning streak with a drubbing at the hands of Shaq and Amundson. Uhm, this is the 2nd game of a possible 6-8 game losing streak for the Raptors which will all but drop their 2% chance of making the playoffs to 0% and we can look ahead to next year for yet another season of resentment, second guessing and wasted time.

On the bright side, the Mavericks cheerleaders are damn hot. The first thing we all notice is that they are all well endowed, I assume we probably have Cuban to thank for that. Thanks man. It was a hard choice, and I couldn’t commit to only one girl here, they are both high quality babies. May I introduce to you Jody and Jessica. Jody (the one on the left) is a rookie dancer who wants to one day own her own cajun restaurant and boasts Jason Terry as her favourite Mav. Jessica on the other hand is an Oasis fan, and loves her some Manicotti, interesting Stackhouse is her favourite Mav.

Injury Report

Raptors
Kris Humphries
Joey Graham – questionable

Mavericks
Jerry Stackhouse
Jason Terry
Shawne Williams

Match-ups

Calderon vs Kidd
The Edge: Kidd - Calderon sucks. Kidd is old and slow, but he is a warrior. I have been taking this match-up for a couple years now.

Parker vs Wright
The Edge: Parker - Parker was luke-warm last night, so it can swing either way, but Wright sucks and is only getting burn because Terry and Stackhouse are out of commission.

Marion vs Howard
The Edge: Marion - This is going to be a nice match-up. Both are premiere 3′s in the league, and will be trying to bring it. Marion has been a beast for us on the boards and in the paint. His perimeter defense has been solid as well, which will come in handy as Howard likes to pop J’s from 15ft out.

Bosh vs Nowitzki
The Edge: Nowitzki - The guy is a Raptor killer he put up 27pts and 10rebs the last time around, and I don’t see it going down much differently, especially with most of the offensive load being on his capable shoulders with Terry out. Bosh will have a big game, 23pts 9rebs, but Nowitzki gets the nod here.

Bargnani vs Dampier
The Edge: VL - VL had a pretty solid showing against Shaq last night, and Dampier is a super watered down version.

The Line

VegasInsider.com has the Mavs at -6.5.

Prediction

The Mavs don’t need Terry and Stackhouse to beat the Raptors, they will protect home court and win by 9.

Grab the Feed.

Follow us on Twitter.

For starters, I’d like to revisit a couple of ideas that I have been writing about for the last month and change over at raptorstalk.com In particular, I’d like to share with you my thoughts on the firing of Sam Mitchell, which seem even more true today than they did on December 4th when I first wrote this piece.

…is Colangelo the right guy to right this ship.

http://www.raptorstalk.com/2008/12/04/you-are-running-out-of-chips-mr-colangelo/

You are running out of chips Mr. Colangelo OR Why Firing Sam Mitchell only buys the Raptors more time to make less moves.

I give Rob Babcock credit, he may have been a horrible GM, but at least he had the “cahones” to admit he made a mistake AND then set about fixing the problem immediately. One disaster ridden season after hiring Kevin O’Neil as the Raps head coach, Babcock fired him and admitted he hired the wrong guy. Less than 6 months later after he was proven wrong again in hiring Sam Mitchell (whom he hired to be “tough on Carter” and was rumored to have fought Carter in the dressing room). He sent Vince Carter to New Jersey in a trade that still makes Raptors fans cringe. The trade may not have been great, but at least Babcock was trying to fix his mistakes. He traded Rafer Alston to Houston for Mike James only 1 year into a 5 year contract, and even apologized publicly for drafting Rafael Araujo. Mr. Colangelo its time for you to own up. Ya, that’s right, I said it.

You see, the real reason the Raps have their hands tied at the moment is because Colangelo is having trouble admitting that everything he touches isn’t gold. Yes, in part, his trading away of TJ last spring was an admission that he made a mistake in acquiring him in a swap with the Bucks two years back for Charlie Villanueva – but not really. Actually, Colangelo’s hand was forced and his response came much too late. Had Colangelo been more active and humble, he would have dealt TJ as soon as it was apparent that Calderon could play at an all star level OR dealt Calderon as soon as TJ returned. After all, look what NJ got for J-Kidd last year at the trade deadline – yup, that’s right, Devin Harris + picks! Instead, Colangelo was continually cocky in addressing the media about the issue by insisting that their “2 guard rotation” was the envy of the league.

He allowed the controversy to not only emerge, but grow, and fester, until it ultimately divided and destroyed this team’s chance of making any type of run in the playoffs. And then, come the summertime, teams knew that Colangelo had to move one of the PGs and the only choices on the market for fair value included players like JO and Gerard Wallace. Now don’t get me wrong, I like the JO deal and I have endorsed it from day one, but in tying up 21 million this year and 23 million next year in JO, Colangelo has tied his hands to making other moves, especially because he felt compelled to include a #1 pick in the deal when there were at least 5 potential swingmen on the board at #17 who may have been able to help the Raps this season.

Colangelo’s second biggest mistake (and another one that up until today he was unwilling to move on) was the 4 year extension he gave Sam Mitchell. Yes, it was not Colangelo who brought Mitchell to Toronto BUT it was Colangelo who gave him a contract extension. He didn’t need to re-sign Mitchell. Remember, when Colangelo took over in January if 2006, Mitchell was coaching a team that ended the 05-06 season 27 and 55 that’s almost 30 games under .500. But at the time it appeared that he held onto Sam Mitchell to hold as a scapegoat so that if the roster did not look stronger in his first year of GM he could simply fire Mitchell and move on. And boy did that plan backfire. Instead, Mitchell led the Raptors in 2006-2007 to a 47 win season and even won Coach of the Year BUT and here’s the BUT – his contract had expired and even though Sam was the reigning COY, no one would have balked if Colangelo had come forward and said that he wanted his “own guy” in there.

Instead he re-signed Sam to a 4 year contract and at that point Mitchell became Colangelo’s guy and he was committed to him – even when the team started off 2007-08 poorly (1-4), or when Bargnani appeared to take a step back in his second year, or when they got embarrassed at the hands of Orlando in a first round match-up they should have won a year after being exploited by NJ. Time and time again, Colangelo stood back and let “the process” play out as he backed his guy and as top notch coaches like Stan Van Gundy, Larry Brown, Jim O’Brien, Scott Skiles, and even Mike Dantoni took their services elsewhere.

And this is why the timing of the firing seems strange. After all, if he didn’t fire Mitchell after the embarrassing loss to Boston on home court that saw the team fall one game under .500 and to 12th in the East only days after Carter humiliated this team in overtime against NJ, then why would you fire him in the middle of a west coast road trip less than ¼ of the way into this season? With an almost certain loss coming Friday night in Utah and the potential of up to 8 more losses before a truly winnable game on Dec 19th against Oklahoma., why wouldn’t you wait until after December when the schedule gets lighter and you could use the coach as a scapegoat for the teams play in December?

The potential reasoning for the firing may be that the 40 point loss in Denver was more than any respectable fan could take, especially when the coach’s response to it on the FAN 590 radio station this morning was very nonchalant when talking about the disgusting effort his team put up in allowing the Nuggets to shoot 60% – a feat that has been accomplished more than once this season against the Raps. Maybe bloggers on this site were right when they mentioned how Mitchell had lost the confidence of Bosh and the dressing room or perhaps the chance to get his hands on Eddie Jordan or PJ Carlesimo who were both recently fired appeared too lucrative to pass up?

But more likely than not, it appears that once again Colangelo’s hand was forced and against his own better judgment he had to publicly come forward and again admit that he was wrong. Lets face it, if he didn’t have to, Colangelo would not have fired Sam Mitchell. How else do you explain how Mitchell has lasted this long?

You see Colangelo had to fire Mitchell because he needed to make some changes here and everyone knows that, but unfortunately there is no real wiggle room for him to make any player movement. This is a roster that has some serious holes in it due to Colangelo mistakes. He miscalculated the importance of guys like Garbajosa and Delfino by letting them both walk and then not replacing either players’ grit, basketball IQ, defensive toughness, and versatility to play more than one position. And with no real trading partners out there and with the team too close to the cap to even pick up a player at the veterans minimum, the coach became the only viable choice for change.

When I started thinking about who this team could trade to get better, the list is very short, in fact its really only two names: Bosh and Bargnani. You see, AP and Joey Graham may be expiring contracts but they only total close to 7.5 million dollars, which isn’t enough to bring back a player of any significance (that is of course assuming that you could get an NBA GM drunk one night at a league party and then get him to play a game of Kevin McHale and trade you valuable players for garbage). While Kapono would be liked by many teams, he has 3 more years after this season at 6 million a year at a time when most teams are very hesitant to take on any contracts past 2010 unless they are players of real substance (and Kapono is a good 6th man but not a real power player).

Calderon could be a valuable trading chip but there are 2 problems here: first, is that it would require Colangelo admitting that he was wrong, which we know he is loathe to do..BUT the bigger problem is that he has a BYC contract, which means that if they were to trade him in the first year of his new contract they could only take back half of what he makes in contracts from another team – and that means he only has a trading value of 3.5 million and that just wont get it done. And since, Colangelo may get shot if he trades Bosh the only chip that remains is trading Bargnani…ouch! Think about how tough that would that be – to admit that taking Bargnani was the wrong choice with the #1 overall pick.

You see that’s what firing Mitchell was really all about. The team needed change and Bryan Colangelo only had two choices: fire Mitchell or deal Bargnani. And while firing Mitchell doesn’t solve any of the roster issues or make the players here any better, it does buy BC time, time to sit back and hope that “the really big 3” can get it going every night. Time to hope that JO can stay healthy. Time to hope that Joey Graham’s secret twin brother decides to show up every night (that is the third twin who no one knows about who has all the talent but suffers from an anxiety disorder so he only shows up for 1-2 games at a time whenever Joey or Stephen are in jeopardy of losing their jobs). But most importantly, time to hope that there is another answer to admitting that he was wrong because apparently BC doesn’t like to do that, even when it costs his team wins and chances to win a NBA title. Just ask Joe Johnson.

As always, standing in the key, I’m the Dr. I’ve got my feet planted and I’m planning on taking a charge!

phdsteve