Certain events make you perk up and take notice at the goings-on of a winning team. New York, a team flush with talent, who found a gem keeping the pine warm, with quality talent from 1 through 10, who only needed to change the voice on the bench to get back to playing basketball worthy of a playoff team are relevant for the second time in the same season.

After running D’Antoni out of town, Carmelo has decided (or rather was forced) to play with pride and conviction; not taking any possessions off. Not a great deal has changed with Woodson taking the helm, except the prima-donna winning the power struggle and realizing there are no more excuses; ladies and gentlemen, I present you the Knicks.

After getting their assess handed to them on Wednesday, the Raptors have a chance at restitution on their home-court to bring the season series even at two a piece.

Areas of focus:

• Need to be aggressive defending that high pick-and-roll against Lin and Stoudemire. Calderon, who played a staggering 40 minutes on his first game back from injury, is going to have a hell of a time keeping Lin under wraps. With Bayless potentially out (or playing injured), he’s going to be called on for heavy minutes again, and needs to really make Lin work for everything. He’s going to need to fight through screens aggressively, and hope he gets some help on the hedge from Bargnani or Gray (or Amir or Davis). He can get some back on offense, by forcing boy wonder to contend and play on his heals.
• Defensive rotations need to be tight, and smooth. Far too often, when Stoudemire went at Bargnani, the other big would rotate, and no one would pick up Chandler who licked his lips at being open under the rim.
• The Knicks are 10 deep, meaning they have 5-guys who can come in, and change the complexion of the game; especially on the wing where the Raptors haven’t been so weak in recent memory. Again, if Bayless is playing, it changes things for the Raptors, but a bench rotation of Forbes, Kleiza and Butler makes me hate basketball something fierce.
• Q: You know what I loved about DeRozan on Wednesday against the Bulls? A: He curled off that high screen, caught the pass, and kept going to the rack; on multiple plays. This is the kind of Rip Hamilton basketball I love seeing from shooting guards. His 17 against the Knicks was so utterly ineffectual, it has Arse dropping giving his life-sized DeRozan blowup doll the camel clutch in rage. Lets see him attack the Knick defense in the paint more than five-times tonight.
• Protect the glass; I mean seriously. We have four forwards, who are tall, mobile and athletic (Gray not so much), and the Knicks dominated the offensive glass 16-4. For those who were counting, that translated in exactly 12 more possession…Raptors lost by 19, you do the math.
• Where the hell is Bargnani? I realize he missed a ton of games via injury, but in the eight games since his return, he’s averaging 12.5pts 4.8rebs 2.1ast on 33.7% from the field and 14.3% from beyond the arc. This is unacceptable, and leads me to believe that he’s either not fully recovered from his injury, or has reverted to his limp noodle ways.

The Knicks are 5.5 point favourites tonight, and if Bayless isn’t ready to go, it’s going to take a full-team, full-48 effort to defend home court. Since those types of efforts have been few and far between, my monies on New York to put this away by the 4th; Knicks by 13.

Photo Credit: Chris Chambers/Getty Images

Dwayne Casey:

We’re trying to hold on to him and keep him, but he has played his way into a very high status as a point guard. A lot of teams have been calling and wanting him.

Call me crazy, but the non-committal tone is something I don’t want to hear as a player, and Jose deserves more from this franchise. In fact, it has the stink of Danny Ainge all over it. It’s no secret that Jose needs to go if we really want to blow this mother up and rebuild, but the way he’s been playing…makes you second guess your armchair quarterbacking. He also deserves to be handled with the utmost respect, because that’s all he’s done for this city…

Trade speculation and free agency are my two favourite parts of the year by far. Rumours and plugging retarded scenarios into trade machine have been the only thing that has kept me going between mediocre season after season.

Before I get my head ripped off, let me go on the record as saying that I only support trading Jose IF it brings back young players who can be core pieces to build around, OR, brings back a youngish, serviceable replacement plus draft picks. I’m all for loyalty, but I’d rather have a winning team to cheer on.

The reality is that we could hold on to him, be happy with his stellar improvement, have his contract expire in 2013 then either resign him for half of what he’s getting now, or let him walk. Both scenarios hurt this team’s long term outlook because you aren’t getting max value for the guy by dealing with him at the right time.

Dumping Jose for cap relief makes no sense given how he’s playing and leading this team, so here are a few scenarios I’ve come up with that work and make some level of sense for the teams involved (in no particular order):

Raptors/Rockets/Lakers
To Rockets – Gasol
To Lakers – Calderon, Scola
To Raptors – Lowry
Trade Machine
Raptors do this because…they get a younger point guard who’s having a hell of a season, and save some money
Rockets do this because…they finally get Gasol, whom they covet for some reason
Lakers do this because…they upgrade at the point while getting a solid replacement for Gasol

Raptors/Lakers/Celtics
To Lakers – Calderon, Bass
To Boston – Bayless, Gasol
To Toronto – Rondo, Jermaine O’Neal
Trade Machine
Raptors do this because…it’s a no brainer
Celtics do this because…they can field a starting five of Bayless/Allen/Pierce/Garnett/Gasol; much better than what they have now
Lakers do this because…they upgrade at the point, clear $5mil from their cap and look to move Bynum for Howard to field a starting five of Calderon/Bryant/MWP/Bass/Howard

RaptorsSixers/Lakers
To Sixers – Gasol, Walton’s contract
To Lakers – Calderon, Brand
To Raptors – Evan Turner
Trade Machine
Raptors do this because…they save cap space and bring in a young swing guard who has lots of upside
Sixers do this because…they add an elite low-post scorer who can actually run the break with the other wings
Lakers do this because…upgrade at the point, and replace Gasol with a capable veteran

There was one more deal I came up with, that could happen if the pot was sweetened with picks and cash: Raptors send Calderon to Dallas for Odom and Beaubois (trade machine). Odom is useless, and I don’t want the shit-show that comes with Kardashian infection, but he will soon become ‘Odom’s expiring contract’ which will have some value. For Dallas, Jose could be a solid Plan B if they can’t land Deron Williams this summer; a core of Calderon/Nowitzki/Howard could compete for a championship for a few seasons.

I’m leaning towards the 1st scenario; it makes sense for all the teams involved, and the Raptors replace Calderon with Lowry, whose younger and makes half the money. Getting Rondo would be the best move to make here, but any deal that helps the C**tics drops to the bottom of my list. I concede each scenario has the Raptors getting back max value for Calderon, which doesn’t happen in real life, but desperate teams (Lakers, Celtics, Rockets, Knicks, Magic and the Nets ) in extraneous circumstances (lockout shortened season) will be working overtime to make something happen. BryCo needs to be ready.

Ryan Degama, from Celtics Hub, James Herbert and AltRaps answered three of my burning questions:

Read an interesting trade scenario on ESPN (Insider required) with Garnett going to Denver for Afflalo, Miller and Mozgov; good trade personally. Why hasn’t Ainge began breaking up the big three, and getting picks/prospects for them while he can?

Ryan: There are a few reasons nothing has happened yet. Part of it is that teams are still evaluating what they need and part of it is that you nail the expected return: picks and prospects. That’s a serious bounty and Boston’s early performance has done little to strengthen Ainge’s negotiating position. Now that Paul Pierce has returned to all-star form, Ainge has more to work with, but there’s no guarantee he’ll get an offer he considers palatable. It’s possible Boston will ride out the season as is.

Alt: I’ve hated Ainge my whole life. Hated him as a Blue Jay and as soon as he became a Celtic, well, it was all over. So, in short, he hasn’t moved on anything because he can’t cross a street without calling someone for help. Much like when we traded Carter, Danny knows that what he gets in return for any of these guys will show what kind of a gunslinger he is. The fact he was willing to part with Rondo before any of these guys tells you something. He will make a move closer to the deadline, especially as the Sixers get further and further ahead of them. You’ll see a desperate perennial playoff team give up some good picks and current talent for one of the two. Pierce is untouchable.

James: Ainge has directly said that he would break this team up if he received a good enough offer. Who’s going after these guys, though? You’re only taking one of them if you’re a contender, and what contender has spare young players that would actually help the Celtics? Maybe some team would like to shed salary for Garnett’s $21 million expiring contract, but would Boston want a bunch of overpaid guys? Would Ainge want Joe Johnson? I doubt it.

Can the Celtics, as presently constructed, still win a championship?

Ryan: Their offense is on the wrong side of mediocre and their rebounding is bottom third in the league. Those two factors guarantee an early round exit come playoff time. Add the team’s collective age and inclination to injury and it’s all over unless you really want to delve deep into “everything goes right” scenarios. Those haven’t been hallmarks of the last few years in Boston.

Alt: If they were able to pull out series wins in 4-5 games, yes. They would get a breather between sets (presumably) and it gives their coaching staff time to get them working on the possible next opponent. Give that time to an Allen, a Garnett, a Rondo, then you have a shot. The real hitch is beating the West in the final. Good luck with that.

James: Can they? Yeah. In the same way that Portland or Denver can if a lot of things go their way. The Celtics are not contenders, barring a major injury elsewhere. They’ll be better come playoff time and we shouldn’t forget how bad they looked during some parts of 2009-2010 before making it to the Finals, but as constructed they are not in the same class as Miami, Chicago, and Oklahoma City.

Will it be a bar fight tonight?

Ryan: Feels like it could be a rough one after Kleiza smacked down Rondo last time. But I don’t think it will be a close one if the Celtics are interested in playing defense (sometimes they’re not) and moving the ball on offense, like they did against the Cavs last night.

Alt: Casey has these guys playing scrappy. You throw Scarborough out there to lay some shoulders and I envision some chippiness. If it’s a close game you know they will zero in on Jose’s touchiness and, especially without Andrea playing cold hand Luke, he could fall for it. That’s okay, though…we have Kleiza who has taken the role of the NBA’s version of a viper.

James: I just watched the Raptors get blown out by the Hawks at home and it wasn’t for a lack of effort. They’ll fight, but without Bargnani they’re going to struggle to put points up against this Boston defense. It all depends on if Toronto can contain Pierce, the Celtics’ primary creator in the absence of Rajon Rondo — if it’s a blowout, it’s not a bar fight.

Injuries

Toronto
Bargnani – Calf, out indefinitely

Boston
Rondo – Wrist, day-to-day
Dooling – Hip, day-to-day
O’Neal – Knee, day-to-day

Match-ups

Point Guard
I’m really liking the effort Bayless has been putting up since his return from injury; what helps most is he’s protecting the ball much better. Calderon’s been consistent. I realize he’s been starting at the 2 the last two games, but I just don’t see DeRozan covering Paul Pierce and James Johnson taking on Kevin Garnett. So with Rondo out (probably out), Bayless will be backing up Calderon and playing some shooting guard in relief of DeRozan while Colangelo sorts out a trade for Barbosa.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
I took a lot of heat when I said DeRozan’s game against the Nets wasn’t that great (especially getting to the foul line 16 times against a D-league level team). When you such dramatic swings from game-to-game, you don’t get love from this corner of the interwebs when you make a pretty against a weak-ass team. Head-to-head against Ray Allen, DeRozan’s been mediocre for a few seasons, I’m not saying Ray-Ray is going to drop 30, but he will do 15-20; mix that with DeRozan’s love affair with the jumper and Boston’s defensive resurgence (4th in defensive efficiency)…it’s going to be a long night for the prodigal son.
Edge: Celtics

Small Forward
Paul Pierce may be old, but his game was never dependant on his athleticism; it’s that slow-motion first step that’s killer. JJ and Kleiza have been playing nice, but if their combined production matches Pierce’s, I’ll be surprised.
Edge: Celtics

Power Forward
I’d like to see Amir or Magloire nail Garnett in the face with an elbow tonight, then have Calderon bark in his ear about it. This would be a win for me.
Edge: Celtics

Center
All my match-up assumptions were based on the Raptors not going small ball because of the bad mis-matches at the 2 and 3 if they do. Maybe they go that route, in which case half of what I’ll be watching the Chicago/Philly game (I’ll be watching that game anyways, Love D-Rose), but maybe they try and match-up a bit smarter, and not let Allen and Pierce take it easy on the bench in the 2nd half because they built up a 20 point 1st half lead.
Edge: Even, but who really cares

Keys to the Game

• Ball movement: the Celtics are a damn good defensive team, but they are old. The Raptors need to make them work on the defensive end of the court and really attack the paint; Garnett and O’Neal aren’t what they used to be. Don’t settle for jumpers!
• Tight defensive rotations: with Rondo out, the Celtics don’t have a guy who can consistently break down the defense and create for the rest of the team. Can’t give Allen and Pierce open looks from the perimeter (the Raptors have done a great job of allowing this this season) or they will kill us; I can’t stress this enough.
• Get into Garnett’s head: this wont win us the game, but I want to see someone mess the SOB a bit…hate him…

The Line

There’s no line at time of publishing, but I’ll go ahead and put a line in the sand: Celtics  by 13.

The Raptors finally broke out of their 0-for-showing with Bargnani injured this season, and got a win with the franchise on the sidelines. Individual plays and levels of effort aside, you have to appreciate this one; the Raptors never lost a quarter, and dictated the flow and tempo throughout. In fact, had it not been for early solid free-throw shooting in the first half, and some above average offensive rebounding by the Nets, this would have been one of those games where a Nets blogger’s post-game would have been a picture of tightly curled turd on the Nets logo.

An aside to the win, the Raptors managed 94 points without Bargnani and Barbosa. Granted some of that has to do with Jersey’s lack of…everything, but the Raptors did as good a good as job as possible with defensive rotations and assignments that you could expect. I mean, Deron Williams dropped 24 points, but it took him 20 shots (3-10 3FG), and some heroic off the ball movement to get good looks at the rim.

Case in point, in the 2nd quarter, Williams started at the top of the arc, ran around the low block, brushed past two low screens, came around to the top of the arc, caught and shot the ball with Bayless on his ass. He hit the three (without as much space as you’d think), but the point is he wasn’t blowing by pylons to get his baskets. He’s the type of player that can make those kind of plays happen, the rest of the team couldn’t and caved to the Raptor defense.

I like Calderon and Bayless starting in the back-court together. As much as Bayless offends me with his decision making, when he doesn’t have to be the floor general, he makes things happen. He also takes pressure off Jose to cover the likes of Deron Williams. I’d like to explore a lineup of Calderon, Bayless, JJ, Bargnani and Amir with DeRozan, Kleiza and Davis as the first three off the bench for a few games. Bayless attacks the paint off the bounce as much as possible, something DeRozan and his new-found love for the jumper should be doing. It gives a bit more balance, which takes me to DeMar…

…I wasn’t that impressed with DeRozan’s game last night. Sure, 27pts on 8-12FG 11-16FT looks great on the boxscore, but it didn’t sit right with me. Three times in the first half, DeRozan pulled up on the break and popped (missed) a jumper when he could have made a move to the basket and either converted or drew a foul. His 27 should have been at least 30. The second problem I had was 17 of 27 came in the second half with the Nets thinking about dinner and watching Californication.

The saving grace of his second half “dominance” was that he got to the line 12 times and hit 9 of them. Had they all been jumpers, I guarantee we would have been watching him shoot jumpers at an even more alarming rate for the rest of the season. Not sure if it’s just me or is his development looking a bit like VC’s? He doesn’t have the same finish Carter had at this stage of his career, but we watched VC go from a guy who wanted to break the backboard, to the POS jump shooter he became. I’m way to lazy to pull stats on this (maybe Liston can put something for statophile), but I’ve noticed myself sighing with more regularity that he’s shooting instead of driving. I can live with the shooting if it continues to improve, but only if he gets to the line more; 4 times a game is half of what of what he should be doing.

Photo Credit: James Herbert via Twitter

I’ve always hated winning and losing in bunches; change needs to be balanced with consistency. Just like that, the team is 4-9 with 8 of the next 10 coming on the road. This team needs Bargnani and Bayless back at full capacity as soon as possible before it gets offensively ugly.

Bret Lagree from Hoopinion gave me his thoughts on a couple questions I had:

After that solid playoff run, and the hot start to the year, does losing Horford write-off the rest of the year; even if he gets back for the playoffs? Also, what’s the plan now, Zaza/trade?
Even without Horford, the Hawks should make the playoffs. His absence definitely diminishes the team’s chances of advancing in the post-season, but the team’s upside with Horford was the probably the second-round, yet again, anyway. His injury would have a had greater impact for a more ambitious, less risk-averse team.

I expect Zaza Pachulia will start (except when the Hawks play the Magic) and primarily split time at center with the undersized Ivan Johnson. Josh Smith might get some time as a nominal five in small lineups. It might work since Marvin Williams and Tracy McGrady (when healthy) are good rebounders for small forwards. If there’s a trade to be made, say Kirk Hinrich for a big man, the Hawks will surely consider it, but they might just as well off keeping Hinrich and doubling-down on perimeter defense.

McGrady’s renaissance has been a pleasant surprise after being brought in to replace some of the lost production from Crawford’s departure. He’s injured now, but can you see him being an important contributor to a team that can make deep playoff appearances?
McGrady was great for most of the first seven games but he’s already missed or been unable to contribute in six straight games since then. The Hawks can’t count on him every night, but he’s a difference-maker when healthy. They should do everything possible to have him available for the playoffs, regular season results be damned.

Are you guys regretting giving Joe Johnson that contract? Seems to me $20m should be able to buy you more than 18pts 4reb 4ast 16PER; is he an amnesty candidate if the Hawks aren’t contenders by next season?
Unfortunately, the only people who didn’t feel anticipatory regret for the Joe Johnson contract were those with the power to hand it to him. The organization has always overrated him on both ends of the floor and compounded that by assuming he’s not going to age. On the other hand, the amount the team has invested in Johnson ($75 million contract, $124 million contract, two first-round picks, Boris Diaw) has, at times, obscured that he’s been a pretty good player with the Hawks, even if he’ll do well to be an above-average player over the length of his current contract.

Injuries

Toronto
Aaron Gray
Jerryd Bayless
James Johnson
Andrea Bargnani

Atlanta
Al Horford
Tracy McGrady
Marvin Williams

Match-ups

Point Guard
You might be able to excuse Calderon’s performance against Rose all things considered. At least he somehow managed 8 assists. The Hawks don’t have the firepower at the point the Bulls do, but they are fairly deep; Kirk Hinrich is their 4th string quarterback. There is nothing about Jeff Teague, Jannero Pargo, some guy named Donald Sloan and Hinrich can do to scare me, but the Raptors are thin at the one. That said, the Hawks are great at sharing the ball, even with Josh Smith in the lineup, and that starts with the point.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Joe Johnson is one of my man-crushes in the league, and even though he’s not producing anywhere close to what a $20m/year guy should be producing, he’s heads and shoulders better than DeRozan. He’s one of those guys who’s good at everything really. He defends, scores from all over the floor, rebounds, shares the ball and plays heavy minutes. To make matters worse for DeMar, who didn’t get to the foul line against the Bulls on Saturday, is that JJ wont be bailing him out with cheap fouls, since he has a low foul rate.
Edge: Atl

Small Forward
With Kleiza in the lineup, and if guys play within themselves, there’s no reason why the Raptors can’t be ok-to-good at the small forward. It all comes down to Butler and Johnson listening to me and not shooting the ball just because they have the room to let loose. The Hawks are great at the 3 either, but they are fairly deep with veteran savvy. Stackhouse is still alive and reasonably useful, while Radmanovic has found a home…doesn’t matter really…
Edge: Even

Power Forward
Looks like Bargnani is still out, which basically writes the game off. I find myself hoping the Raptors go small ball, and give Kleiza and Johnson (can’t believe I’m saying this) the bulk of the minutes at the four if Andrea can’t go. Davis needs Anthony Robbins or something…not sure, but what I do know is that Josh Smith will make him humble if he doesn’t come correct.
Edge: Atl

Center
The only exciting aspect of this match-up is being able to say Zaza with some flare. Amir/Magloire can probably keep their heads up in this one, but it doesn’t matter. The Raptors caught a break with Horford going down for 3-4 months with an injury, otherwise this would have gotten ugly, fast.
Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

• Get to the foul line; as a team on Saturday against the Bulls, the Raptors went to the foul line seven times (made 1 of them); no wonder they were only able to muster 64 points. The Hawks have a few good defenders, so you have to get as many easy/cheap points as possible
• Perimeter defense; the Hawks like to throw the ball around and stick jumpers. It kills them in the playoffs, but wins them games in the regular season. The Raptors have done a great job of giving teams nice looks from the perimeter; seems like a match made in heaven. need to tighten things up
• Let Josh Smith shoot as much as he wants

The Line

The Hawks are at home and haven’t lost to the Raptors in over two years; there’s a reason they are 11 point favourites.

Call me a fan of the Pacers; they are the type of team I try to build in fantasy basketball, but always end up with something closer to the Wizards (I suck at fantasy). The last game saw the Raptors put up a lot of really bad jumpers, while the Pacers annoyingly hit a lot of open ones. The Raptors offense has gotten better since that game, but the Raptors need to get some cheaper baskets to open things up some.

Tim Donahue and Jared Wade from Eight Points, Nine Seconds (a Reggie Miller reference) were gracious enough to answer a few of my questions:

True or False: David West was the best free agent signing of the summer.

Tim True – Granted, I haven’t done an exhaustive comparison, but I’m hard-pressed to imagine any other free agents bringing as much of what their new team needed – toughness, maturity, leadership – as David has brought the Pacers. Despite individual numbers that are low for him (18.3 PER, .430 eFG%), he has been a big part of Indy’s 7-3 start.

Jared True. Look at West’s individual numbers and he doesn’t jump out as someone who has been a major difference-maker so far, but just his presence has been huge. He has been a key cog in the spacing and ball movement that has helped Indy’s starting lineup be the second best 5-man unit in the league so far among those that have played at least 100 minutes. And this doesn’t capture his effect off the court. He is a no-nonsense, grown-up presence in the locker room who all the players have praised for being a team leader since day one.

There’s been some rumblings about Grangers role on the team moving forward with the emergence of Paul George; does he finally get traded, and what will the Pacers want in return? (who are you pining for?)

Tim I have never really put much stock into any Granger trade rumors. He’s what I call a “zero sum” trade asset – meaning it’s hard to do a trade where you significantly improve the team after taking Danny off of it. Paul George isn’t ready yet, and wing depth isn’t great for the Pacers. Indy can get more value out of Danny on the floor than they can in any trade – at least for now.

Jared I don’t see any way Larry Bird trades Granger this season. Perhaps if he can’t pull out of this shooting tailspin, but then you’re not going to get much back. In the summer, I could see it. But George would have to show more. Danny remains the most dynamic offensive player on the team and while West and Hibbert have shown something up front, the Pacers would need to get an equivalent perimeter threat back in return.

Is it time to start mentioning Larry Bird in the same breath with the other top executives in the league?

Tim I think it’s time to recognize that Bird is a good, solid head of the Pacer organization, but so many test remain before you can consider him a top exec. Keep in mind, the Pacers haven’t won more than 37 games since he took over from Donnie Walsh. I love his patience, and that alone may put him in the top half of the execs of the league – but it all has to translate to success on the floor and in the playoffs first.

Jared It’s too early for that, but he has done a much better job navigating the salary cap hell Indiana was in than most people were giving him credit for even six months ago. He just waited and waited and waited. His endgame was seizing an opportunity to trade for a guy every team would love on their bench in George Hill and signed West to a top-notch contract, all the while stacking up young, cheap, promising assets. The roster is probably still one big piece away from being any more than the Hawks have been the past few seasons, but even that is a big leap forward from the doldrums this franchise has muddling through the past four years.

Match-ups

Point Guard
It pains me to say this, but we’re missing Bayless; Jose needs some relief. Collison made a lot of things happen for his teammates last game, and has show range on his jumper. I’d rather Calderon keeps him on the perimeter and gets a hand up on him when he shoots then let him start attacking the defense off the bounce then kicking to an open wing for a three.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
DeMar can’t give Paul George 7 open looks from beyond the arc like he did last game; or the guy is going to hit 4 of him like he did. Not sure wtf is going on with DeRozan, but he’s had since Wednesday off, and needs to do better. An easy way is to get to the line, which requires him to attack paint, which requires him to get his head in the game. Put some pressure on George on defense, and hopefully his legs wont be in every shot he takes.
Edge: Indiana

Small Forward
It’s great to have Kleiza back; Wednesday against the Kings he took away 14 minutes from Butler/Johnson. It’s not like he’s going to play 30 minutes tonight, but a gradual increase in court time will only help things out. I can deal with 10 minutes each for Butler and Johnson a game; max. Good luck with Granger tonight.
Edge: Indiana

Power Forward
I like the different looks Indiana can throw at the 4. Between Hansbrough and West, they can trot out beast after beast. If Bargnani can’t go tonight (listed as questionable), Davis wont be cutting it. If he can, he’s going to be playing injured, which could make things worse.
Edge: Indiana

Center
Get used to seeing this tonight: Hibbert  backs Johnson/Magloire down from the elbow for a layup. The play from any forward other than Bargnani has been inconsistent at best. While Amir has had some big games recently, he’s had a tough time with large centers, only mustering 2 points the last time out (although he did grab 10 boards). I’m not high on this match-up at all.
Edge: Indiana

Injuries

Toronto
Jerryd Bayless – Ankle, day-to-day
Andrea Bargnani – Calf, questionable
Aaron Gray – Heart, out

Indiana
George Hill  - Back, should play
Tyler Hansbrough – Eye, should play
Danny Granger – Ankle/Food Poisoning, should play

Keys to the Game

• Rotate on the perimeter; the Pacers had 10 very clean looks from beyond the arc the last time out. Have to make them work for their baskets, and not give them 3 Mississippi’s to shoot
• Defend the paint; Magloire did a good job on Hansbrough, frustrating the kid. The front court needs to throw elbows, knock people down, and not concede an inch
• No second chances; I’d like to see the Raptors give up less than 10 offensive rebounds tonight. The Pacers will take plenty jumpers, with plenty rebounds
• Control the pace; can’t get into an up-and-down game with the Pacers. They have a lot of guys who can get out on transition and open things up. Need to slow it down and grind them into the ground

The Line

Nothing has been posted yet, but with Bargnani injured and possibly out, I don’t like the Raptors chances.

Photo Credit: Ron Turenne/NBAE via Getty Images

There’s losing a tough, competitive game that came down to the wire; there’s losing a nasty one to a better team where you weren’t really expected to make any noise; then there’s that once a year performance that would cost a coach his job. Clearly Casey is in no danger of losing his job, and shouldn’t be, but if Triano was still around, this would have been the nail in his coffin.

Last night was the result of a perfect storm that was bound to happen. Not only to the Raptors, but we will see a lot of fugly results like this across the league:

Injuries It says a lot about the state of your team when missing Jerryd Bayless in the lineup is cause for concern. Look, he’s not the worse thing that has ever happened to the Raptors, but at least he gives Calderon some rest (70 minutes in two nights, and he didn’t play the entire 4th quarter), and is aggressive off the bounce when he has the ball in his hands. It would also be nice to have Kleiza (again, I only weep for myself that I’m hoping Bayless AND Kleiza get back in action asap) force both Butler and Johnson into playing a combined 15-18 minutes a night.

Scheduling & Player Management The Raptors have played five games in the last seven nights, with little time for rest, and more importantly, practice. It’s tough to really work on things when you’re either on a plane, at the airport or sleeping. Top that off with heading into the 2nd night of a back-to-back, and things don’t look good considering the Raptors aren’t the most fit bunch. What made things even worse was Bargnani and Calderon played 45 and 41 (DeRozan played 38, but that shouldn’t be as big an issue) minutes respectively the night before against the  Wolves. I questioned Casey for riding those two for so long, but at least they got the win out of it.

Scoring The Raptors couldn’t put the ball through the hoop; it was tough to watch.

Now to the game…

The game started ugly for both teams; it took two and a half minutes and a combined five shots before Bargnani put the ball on the floor and got things rolling. The key during that two-minute stretch of ass was that the Wizards were missing off the bounce and in the paint, and the Raptors were clanking jumpers. This set the tone for the entire night where the Wizards were just monsters in the paint, scoring 38 of 46 points in the paint in the 1st half. That’s a big deal since it isn’t like the Wizards have a dominant front court that had it’s way with our boys. They attacked off the dribble with Wall, Young and Crawford taking their man, and making some difficult shots.

Aside from Calderon getting his second wind a minute into the game (it was downhill after the first quarter for the guy), three things stood out for me in the quarter: offensive rebounding and defense kept the Raptors in the game early; the Wizards had a grand total of 2 assists in the quarter; and DeRozan wasn’t actually playing any basketball. Given that the Raptors had just played the Wolves the night before, I expected some tired-lazy shots, but it was nice to see the defense do its job. The Wizards scored because their guys took the game into their hands and instead of running plays, made super aggressive moves off the bounce to get a shot off. This made me me happy heading into the second because when you control the boards, and are forcing a team to score off of broken plays and zero ball-movement, good things will happen.

I was wrong, the 2nd quarter was a warm, tightly curled pile of doo-doo (I actually used the word doo-doo six times in my game notes). If I could take back 40 minutes of my life, it was witnessing the 2nd and 3rd quarters of this game. Yes the Raptors were tired, but the worst team in the NBA managed to set the pace of the game, and capitalize. Eighteen of the Wizards first 20 points were transition buckets in the paint.

There was also a two-fold problem of turning the ball over (9 turnovers in the quarter), and when they managed to protect it, scoring the bloody thing.  DeRozan, Butler and Johnson were a combined 1-15 from the floor in the 1st half. To compound things, each and every shot they took, and missed, was early in the clock and obviously forced. In all fairness, DeRozan isn’t getting the ball in his sweet spot: catching the ball after curling off the high screen. He’s getting the ball on the wing, with no weak-side action. Unfortunately, his shot isn’t there quite yet. Butler and Johnson are just brutal; makes me miss watching Mike James go 1-on-4 for a bucket five-times a night.

The third was more of the same, and Casey threw in the towel in the 4th, trying to conserve some energy for tonight’s affair against the Kings.

After turning in an ugly effort against a lesser squad, I’m still happy with how the season is going. The reality is that the Raptors should have won this game and lost to the Knicks – net change is zero. Regardless of the outcome, some really good things happened last night:

• The Raptors defense was pretty decent; a 93 point performance where the starters didn’t play the entire 4th quarter isn’t something to hang your head low on. The Raptors were rotating on defense fairly well, but you have to give the Wizards some credit for hitting shots with next to no ball movement until the second half of the second quarter
• Bargnani weathered through his fatigue and managed 22 points on 16 shots in 29 minutes
• The Raptors out-rebounded the Wizards 44-38, with their offensive rebounding keeping them in the game, 14
• The zone defense worked until it didn’t, and by didn’t, I mean they didn’t use it enough. Still, it’s nice that they can throw out different looks that are effective

I really hate to say it, but the Wizards were due for a win, and the gods conspired to set the stage for them to capitalize. It’s an easy one to put behind you and prepare for the Kings at home.

If you don’t know, watching the game while keeping track of things on Twitter makes things a bit more interesting. The highlight for me last night was this exchange with some random dude (start at the bottom and read up the thread):

Photo Credit: Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images

The Cavs are 3-2, and the Raptors should be 3-2; this is going to be an interesting season to say the least. The other night I had a thought that really made me uncomfortable; what if the Raptors win more games than they should? There are already lots of interesting themes developing (insider required). Couple that with the number of absolutely brutal teams there are in the east, and the solid effort being turned in so far game after game, and you could make the case that the Raptors could surprise and over achieve this season; jeopardizing their lottery status in the summer.

I know there are positives to both sides of this coin, but I’d rather grab at least one more solid draft pick, then try to make a run at things; need as many horses as you can get.

The Cavs frontcourt kept them in the game against the Raptors on opening night, grabbing 15 offensive rebounds, but an even attack from the Raptors spurred by ball movement (35 assists) and solid defensive rotations were more than they could handle.

Match-ups

Point Guard
Irving showed signs of promise, but he’s just not ready to be handed the reigns just yet. Sessions hurt the Raptors with his dribble penetration and three point shooting; nothing from mid-range. Calderon needs to close-out on him faster, and force him into a waiting defender. Same thing with Gibson, except I’d he’s less of a threat to get to the rack. Bayless will be a game-time decision, but the Raptors could use some of his off the bounce attack to mix things up and keep the Cavs defense guessing. Anthony Carter will be counted on to provide spurts of solid relief. I’m the first to admit I was wrong about his effectiveness; a couple minutes here and there is doable for the guy.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
Every Time DeRozan took the ball to the rim, he either scored or got put on the line. The Cavs don’t have the shot blocking ability to challenge DeMar when he gets to the rim. He has to keep on attacking Anthony Parker, who just doesn’t have  the foot speed to keep up. Barbosa will do the same to Gibson, who I can’t recall doing anything of value in the first game.
Edge: Raptors

Small Forward
Butler and Johnson did a good job of keeping Casspi off the board, and he hasn’t done much this season since, but  some guy named Alonzo Gee stepped up for the Cavs. With the performances that Butler has turned in the last games, the small forward spot is stabilizing some. As long as whoever is manning the 3-spot puts defense first, and tries to avoid taking retarded shots, the Raptors should do well.
Edge: Even

Power Forward
A repeat performance from Jamison would go a long way tonight; Bargnani and Davis kept Antawn to 6-20 shooting from the field. Bargnani couldn’t find his shot last week against the Cavs, but has since remedied that. With him going to the rack as often as he’s popping jumpers, he will be putting a lot of pressure on the Cavs frontcourt to step-up. The Raptors would have the frontcourt locked if Ed Davis would just come back. Since his solid performance against the Cavs last week, the sophomore has all but vanished. He could find his game tonight against the only team he’s played well against this season; I hope anyways. It was great to see Tristan Thompson play well, and he’s done a pretty good job so far considering, but the Cavs overstepped in taking him 4th with Valanciunas and Vesely on the board.
Edge: Raptors

Center
I foolishly didn’t give the Cavs the edge at center last game, and was proved wrong. Varejao still has a great deal to offer, putting up 14pts 10rebs (7 offensive) almost single handedly keeping the Cavs hanging around and in the game. Things have looked downhill for Amir since the first two games of the season, and there wasn’t much there for Magloire to begin with. Varejao will do his best to keep them in the game, but the Cavs have less talent than the Raptors.
Edge: Cavaliers

The Line

The gamblers have the Raptors as 4 point favourites, with an over/under of 190. The Cavs and Raptors have found themselves to be in an interesting situation so far this season. Both are doing better than expected, and playing hard. The Cavs took advantage of an easier schedule, beating the Pistons, Nets and Bobcats. The Raptors on the other hand should be 3-2 heading into tonight’s game. Bet the line; Raptors win 92-86.

Point Guard
The offense actually isn’t as bad as you might think; the Raptors are first in the league in Assist Ratio 18%, 5th in true shooting 55.9% and 11th in offensive efficiency 103. This all starts with Calderon at the point, who is orchestrating like a maestro (lame I know, sorry).  He’s keeping the pace down, but that looks to be the only way this team can compete on a game-to-game basis. Toney Douglas will check Jose tight on defense, not giving him much room to operate; he will have to play a tight 1-2 with Bargnani in the high post to manufacture scoring opportunities for the rest of the team. Douglas is less of a threat off the bounce, but can hit those open jumpers that opposing teams seem to be getting from the Raptors so far this season. Jose looked gassed yesterday against the Magic, and with that game that coming aggressively coming down to the wire, and Bayless not in the lineup tonight, he’s gonna be ridden like Joey (great movie btw) which never bodes well for him.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
I like DeMar, I want him to succeed, but he really needs to step up his offensive efficiency: 8-24 from the field over the last two games; unacceptable. He’s had his hands full with quality shooting guards, but that’s really no excuse; hand down man down, right? A lot of his problem comes from not taking the ball to the rack. He’s been to the line 6 times in four games, a super low number for a guy with his ball handling and athletic ability. Landry Fields is a perimeter wing, but has a nice touch from outside (he was a solid pick up for me last year in fantasy). Without Stoudemire in the lineup, DeMar wont have to collapse defensively as much, and can stay at home on Landry. Don’t give up open shots, and battle on the boards like he did against the Magic, and he’ll be fine.
Edge: Even

Small Forward
Butler/Johnson have been having problems with the likes of Turkoglu and Marion, Melo is going to drop 30 tonight. Transition defense is going to kill the Raptors tonight if they don’t pick up guys early and stick with him. Anthony is one of the most lethal scorers in the league in the first 7 seconds of the shot clock. With Amare out, there’s going to be much more offensive burden put on his shoulders, which he’s more than happy to take on. Restricting ball movement, and forcing Melo into tough shots he’ll probably still hit is the best strategy here.
Edge: Knicks

Power Forward
Amare is out for tonight which is a godsend for Bargnani defensively.  Don’t know anything about his rookie replacement Josh Harrellson other than he was able to drop 14pts 12rebs on an equally talent thin Kings squad. Can’t read that much into that performance since Cousins had demanded a trade and JJ Hickson has been an absolute flop (killed me for a couple days in fantasy this year) so far. Andrea puts up 32pts/10rebs/2blk, book it. As far as Ed Davis goes, I have no idea where the guy went. It’s like he’s hit the wall, but it’s only been 4 games; don’t’ get it. This game will give Ed opportunities to bang on the boards, and make things happen; he just needs to want to do it.
Edge: Raptors

Center
I still feel jipped by Jordan’s take-back on that trade, especially after he turned around and sent him to Dallas for crap….bah, whatever. He’s come as advertised for the Knicks, shoring up the front court with some sorely needed defense and the occasional alley-oop. This should be an easier match-up for Amir since Tyson isn’t as physical as Howard, but his agility will hurt definitely bother our boy.
Edge: Knicks

The Line

The Knicks are 8 point favourites with an over/under of 200; sounds about right. The Magic loss was not only a tough one to swallow, but the Raptors had to play Bargnani and Calderon more than they should have, taking away some juice from their tank for tonight. This one really has the chance to get ugly if Melo is feeling it.

Things wont be getting any easier; Magic today, Knicks tomorrow, tough match-ups all around. The Raptors are maintaining a consistent level of effort defensively, but their offense is killing them. I’m sure Casey’s on the job…

Unlike the Nuggets, who had the hooplah of the Carmelo Anthony fiasco bleed onto their play on-court, the Magic have started the season 3-1, with their only loss coming against the Thunder; no shame there.

I had a chance to speak to Eddy Rivera from Magic Basketball about the Magic:

True or False: the Magic, as currently constructed, are championship contenders.

False. The Orlando Magic desperately need a dynamic shot creator on the perimeter and the bench is rather thin. Likewise, the Magic just don’t have the star power that teams like the Miami Heat have. That being said, with Ryan Anderson emerging at power forward, Hedo Turkoglu looking like his 2009 self, Orlando may have new life but it’s still early.

I’m wondering what the strategy is for Dwight Howard. Surely, if Smith wants to keep him, resigning Jason Richardson and trading for his BFF Glen Davis wont cut it, right? Also, was the Glen Davis move as stupid as I think it was?

The strategy behind re-signing Richardson and trading for Davis is to allow the Magic to compete in the event Howard leaves. It’s not smart but with an 85-year old owner that’s gunning for a championship one more time, it’s understandable. And yes, the Bass-for-Davis swap was a bad one. Each player has their flaws but Bass is better.

Will Dwight Howard be a Magic come the end of the season?

Maybe. I still think Howard will ultimately be traded to the Lakers because they offer the best “win now” assets. However, I don’t think it’s set in stone that Howard is gone. Deep down inside, Howard genuinely would like to stay with Orlando but the franchise needs to give him a reason to do so.

Match-ups

Point Guard
With Bayless a game-time decision, Calderon will have to pick it up a notch. It will be tough to play him larger minutes than normal, what with the Knicks tomorrow, but Anthony Carter isn’t much of an insurance policy. The Magic are deep at the PG, not great, but deep. Jameer Nelson is also listed as day-to-day with a neck injury. Unfortunately, even if the Raptors utterly exploit this position, it still will be an uphill battle.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
If Barbosa has to play some backup PG to Calderon, there will be a lot of pressure on DeMar to hold it down against a very deep SG lineup for the Magic. An area where the Raptors still need some work is perimeter defensive rotations (closing out on open shooters behind the arc). Between Jason Richardson and JJ Redick, any extra open space they have will result in a trey.
Edge: Magic

Small Forward
It’s depressing how weak we are at the 3-spot; lets just say Turkoglu is producing more than all our 3s combined, yea.
Edge: Magic

Power Forward
That Vince Carter trade they made a couple seasons ago was a phenomenal haul for the Magic. Ryan Anderson, seemingly, was thrown in as a salary matching after-thought (I’m sure Otis Smith knew what he was doing ). Historically, the Raptors had success against the Magic because Bargnani’s production would counter Howards. Now with Ryan Anderson putting up 19.5pts 6.5rebs 43%3P in addition to whatever Howard puts up in the middle.
Edge: Even

Center
Howard > Johnson + Magloire + Alabi. A success today, in my books, will be if Magloire comes down with a rebound, elbows up, and catches Glen Davis in the mouth.
Edge: Magic

The Line

The gamblers have the Magic as 11.5 points favourites with an over/under of 190. I’m not hopeful for today; actually, I’m never hopeful against the Magic yet the Raptors always find a way to surprise. The Magic have always had trouble defending Bargnani in the past. It’s not going to be a pretty one, I’d bet the line.