The Raptors have it tough for the next 10 days; four of the next six games are against playoff teams, and three of those teams are elite. It kicks off tonight in Orlando and it’s not going to be a pretty one. We’ve talked ad nauseam about what this team is (isn’t) capable of, how good (or bad) certain players are, and the job security of one coach. What we need to consider is that this season is a wash. The Raptors aren’t good enough to do anything, and the lineup shouldn’t be tinkered with to fight for a playoff spot because it will jeopardize the teams future in doing so.

Khandor hit the nail on the head with his piece after the Bobcats game:

COMPONENTS OF A GOOD LOSS FOR THE RAPTORS THIS SEASON

1. Their opponent is a team with more NBA level talent on their roster than Toronto.
2. The game’s final outcome is only decided in the last 30 seconds of play.
3. At no point during the game does Toronto fall behind by more than 10 points.
4. At no point during the game does Toronto go ahead by more than 15 points.
5. DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis – only once he is 100% healthy, again – receive at least 20+ minutes of PT, including at the start of quarters #1 and #3, plus during the last 6 minutes of quarter #4 [and, in any overtime session which might be played].

The long term objective for the Toronto Raptors this season should be focused, exclusively, on obtaining the future rights to a Top 3 Pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Anything which, in fact, moves the team closer to achieving THIS specific goal next summer is a good thing for this franchise heading towards the future.

Something to think about.

Life got in the way, and I got stood up by the Orlando blogger, but here are the questions I asked (I’ll update this with his answers if he gets them to me today):

1. What’s going on with Rashard Lewis? Vince Carter got a lot of flack for his poorish performance in the playoffs, but Lewis was just as bad, averaging 12.9pts 5.6rebs 2.3ast. His play has seemed to seep into this season. I’m clearly missing something.
2. Jameer Nelson has been a big part of this team’s recent success, but his injuries make it difficult for the team to be consistent (shuffling guys here and there). Williams and Duhon are capable backups, but seriously. At what point does Otis Smith say “enough’s enough” and go out and make a splash to upgrade the point?
3. A lot has been said about Gortat and Bass not being happy with their playing time. Gortat especially didn’t seem happy the Magic matched the contract Dallas extended him. I’m not sure where I’m going with this, but they could be valuable pieces to upgrade this roster; please comment.
4. Even though they lost the first meeting with Miami, I like how this teams matches up against them. The Celtics on the other hand could pose some big problems. What are Orlando’s prospects of getting back into the finals this year?
5. Almost a joke to ask, but what is the strategy coming in against the Raptors?

Injury Report

Toronto
Jarrett Jack – Sore Knee, Will Play
Reggie Evans – Bruised Left Hip, Gametime Decision
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Doubtful
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Out
Ed Davis – Out

Orlando
Jameer Nelson – Hurting, Will Play
Vince Carter – LOL, Will Play

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Nelson
The guys been killing our PG’s for years: he’s quick enough to beat them off the dribble, strong enough to knock them off tilt and hits every single bloody shot he takes against us. It’s very frustrating. He is coming back from an injury, but it didn’t stop him from playing well against the Jazz (even though the team lost) chipping in 19pts 7ast. Based on everything we’ve seen so far this season, I don’t see how Jack/Calderon have any chance tonight. Might be nice to see Banks get some run and step up defensively, but we know that’s not going to happen; why would it?
Edge: Nelson

SG – DeRozan vs Carter
After starting the season strong, he has utterly fallen apart the last three games, averaging 4.3pts 2.7rebs while shooting 33% from the field. Yes, the match-ups weren’t in his favour, but since when is that an excuse to put up Marcus Banks numbers? Carter owns us. Period. He might be in the twilight of his career, but he still can light it up, and is actually playing efficiently all things considered (52%FG 44%3FG 20.68PER). Only Amir Johnson is as productive as Carter with a PER of 21.39. It’s a nice game for DeMar to come out of his funk from, since VC wont be able to keep up with him if he gets going. Like most nights, he has the tools to make life difficult for folks, it’s just a matter of being focused and having your head in the game.
Edge: Carter

SF – Kleiza vs Lewis
It’s lose-lose at the 3. If Kleiza’s achilles is still bothering him, there’s no way he can hang with Lewis. If he can’t even play, the Raptors have no one who can begin to match-up here. Weems, while athletic, doesn’t have the size to bother Lewis (6″10). While Kleiza isn’t 6″10 either, he does have some strength which can compensate. At the end of the day, Lewis is only averaging 11pts 6rebs (all for the low-low price of $20mil), but if folks start doubling Howard (like I wish they wouldn’t but know they will), there’s going to be a lot of open shots for the guys on the perimeter.
Edge: Lewis

PF – Evans vs Anderson / C – Bargnani vs Howard
I have a feeling the front court is going to get messy, and will see the following match-ups (humour me here):

Raptors Playing Defense
Bargnani/Howard & Evans/Anderson
We all know Bargnani wont stop Howard, but the killer part here is that since Anderson likes to live on the perimeter, Evans will be out of position to rebound on the defensive glass. Bargnani has no chance on Howard, and this could get messy fast. I expect Amir to get some heavy minutes if he can play with his head and stay out of foul trouble; even Dorsey should see some time. This situation neutralizes the only reason to start Evans alongside Bargnani, and exposes how bad this front court really is.

Raptors Playing Offense
Bargnani/Anderson & Evans/Howard
I don’t see Howard playing out on the perimeter with Bargnani. The Magic are the 2nd best defensive team, and 4th best rebounding team for a reason: Dwight Howard is a beast in the paint. Evans is a bad enough offensive player that Howard can essentially roam free and help everywhere, and recover fast enough to challenge Reggie in the paint. Anderson moves well enough that he can keep up with Bargnani, but probably wont prevent him from dropping 17+. I don’t think the Magic will care since they will basically be dictating the flow of the game, and Howard will be there to clean up anyone attacking the rim.
Edge: Anderson & Howard

Keys to the Game

Play with Heart
The expectation tonight is not to win, but rather to play with some pride. There is a moral victory to be had here if at the end of the game the Raptors can say they did their best, but still lost. The gain here is continuing the aggressive play they’ve shown us, not getting down big early, fighting for every possession, and making smart plays.

Pray to Jah
Seriously. It will take every Raptor, hitting on all cylinders, not making mistakes and sticking a lot of shots for this to be a contest. The Magics bench is pretty scary too, which compounds the problem: Mickael Pietrus, Brandon Bass, Martin Gortat, JJ Reddick…they are better at every possible match-up and combination of lineups.

The Line

The Magic are 14 point favourites, at home with a full days rest.

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So much for unfounded optimism in calling games (my pre-game call), I will be sticking to my gut feeling from now on (my podcast call). Pitiful display by the Raptors last night. We’ve owned the Heat over the last few seasons, so you knew they were due for a win, but not like that. After what we did to the Rockets? After that team meeting that was supposed to be the key to the season? Looks like what ails the Raptors requires a shuffling of players/coach, and not Alvin Williams facilitating communication workshops while Gherardini translates.

I’m still pretty embarrassed from that loss to the Magic a month ago. The one where our genius marketing/PR team thought it a great idea to pay tribute to Vince Carter, while he was playing against us that same day. The one where he declined the offer, then proceeded to pace the Magic to the win, with a perma-grin plastered on his face the whole time. I ask one thing of the Raptors marketing team: please don’t spawn any new gimmicks for games where we play Vince Carter. We are 0-2 in these situations, and I fear the worst for all of our sanity if you fail miserably one more time.

I don’t like playing Orlando this year because I’m constantly reminded of what the Raptors SHOULD have done the last two off-seasons, namely go after Pietrus and Barnes since they represented exactly what this team was missing and continues to need at a reasonable price tag.

Tonight against the Magic is going to be bad.  The Magic by the numbers:

• 7-3 in their last ten
• 8-2 at home
• 14-3 against the East
• +5.8 scoring differential (5th best in the league)
• 43.1 rebounds a game (7th in the league)
• 21pts 23rebs by Howard Monday against the Pacers
• 28pts 7rebs 3ast by VC Monday against the Pacers

You see where I’m going with this right? The Raptors need to do exactly the opposite of what they did against the Heat last night.

Bosh/Bargnani need to attack Howard early and get him into foul trouble. They need to hit him and get between him and the glass. You aren’t going to out jump the guy, so get in there and fight. Rashard Lewis will stretch the defense, so one of Bosh or Bargnani will be out of position to rebound, means the rest of the girls need to pull up their knickers and compensate. Bosh needs to grab more then 2 rebounds, regardless of who he’s covering. We had mixed results against Houston/Miami, but with Orlando grabbing so many rebounds, the Raptors have to do better then the last time around when the Magic’s offensive rebounding was brutalizing our girls.

Turkoglu needs to be kept under control. I know this is going to be an emotional night for him returning to Orlando after playing there for 5 years, but he isn’t the kind of guy who can just damage a team on his own. I do like giving him the ball and letting him create for Bosh/Bargnani though, but that’s it. His one-on-one moves need to be minimized, and his shots should only come in the natural flow of the offense…whatever that means for the Raptors.

Vince had a monster night Monday against the Pacers that helped pace Howard to a monster night of his own. We know VC can score, we know he can create, but lets hit him a few times. I bet if DeRozan/Weems elbow him a couple times in the kidneys, he stays away. Let him shoot the lights out, I just don’t want him getting to the rack and laying it up gracefully as he does. While we’re at it, how about not letting JJ Reddick have another career night. The guy can shoot, so lets not double Howard down low, letting him kick out to one of his open shooters (in this case Reddick) who will knock it down. If you didn’t know, that is what Orlando wants everyone to do. The team is built on this one thing.

Jimmy‘s sim says Orlando will win 101-88. The gamblers have the Magic as -11 and the money at -750. I had the Raptors losing this one in the podcast, it’s the second night of a back-to-back, so I’ll be damned if I change my mind; Magic win 114-89.

In what amounted to another middle-finger being pointed at the Raptors by our ex-franchise player, Vince Carter had the last laugh again. How ridiculously ill conceived is this plan to honour Raptors greats of the past? I mean, Oakley was cool because he is years removed from playing, and he’s interesting. But making a fuss about players like MoPete, Bonner and VC while they are still playing and trying to get wins for their teams (against the Raptors) is stupid. At least we didn’t have a “Sea of Blue” cross-promotion with the Leafs as the Magic rolled into town.

I enjoy playing in that atmosphere and I enjoy coming back here and playing, just being a part of this.” Carter said. “This is where it all started.

At the end of the day, this Magic team is on a different level than the Raptors. They were missing an injured Jameer Nelson, and Brandon Bass didn’t get off the bench, and still had more than enough to take this one to the bank.

I’m really only concerned with the 4th quarter, as the first three were evenly played. The same issues are starting to surface, and we are seeing some developments in the fourth quarter that are very,very concerning in my humble opinion.

Like the last few games, the Raptors had a stretch of 4 minutes where they didn’t score. Not only did they not score, they didn’t try to get a good shot:

• Turkoglu stumbles into the lane and misses an off-balance layup (should have went straight up)
• Bargnani clanks a three off the front of the rim from 25ft
• Jack forces a jumper and misses
• Calderon misses a three that should have fell from the foul line extended

See any trends? I’ll give you a hint: Bosh didn’t touch the ball. To be fair, he didn’t check into the game until the 8:25 mark. However, he didn’t actually take a shot until the 4:28 mark when Reddick nicked his elbow on a jump shot attempt (another bad shot). The Magic were on a 15-2 run before Bosh hit his free throws.

The last time we played them, we gave him free rein to the rim,” Howard said of Bosh. “He got a lot of easy rebounds. Tonight, we kept a body on him, forced him to stay out of the lane and not be able to get those easy rebounds.

They did a great job of keeping Bosh out of the game. He did score 22, but only had 5 rebounds on the night. He literally had two shot attempts in the 4th (one of them he drew a foul so it didn’t count). Let me repeat that: CHRIS BOSH HAD ONE SHOT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. One…We let a big opportunity pass through our fingers considering we had Howard on the ropes early in the first quarter with two fouls.

I have to say it, but we really missed Belinelli coming off the bench today. Amir picked up some slack, and Weems chipped in some, but Belinelli has been huge for us down the stretch of games hitting some big/clutch shots.

Uhm…what else was there…yes..the pick and roll defense was terrible. Arse broke it down with some guerilla videography, I have nothing to add except +1.

Four Factors to Losing

Shooting the Ball Well
Neither team shot the ball particularly well, but the Raptors were marginally more efficient from the field.
Raptors – 48%
Magic – 46.3%

Taking Care of the Ball
Both teams did a great job of limiting turnovers.
Raptors – 9.8%
Magic – 7.6%

Offensive Rebounding
When you go 9-32 from behind the arc, there will be plenty of long-juicy rebounds to grab. Howard led the way with 5 offensive boards, that translated into 5 points scored by the Magic.
Raptors – 20%
Magic – 28.5%

Getting to the Free Throw Line
The Magic got to the line at a higher rate, and hit more from when they got there. When you are hitting from the field, this is what good teams do, pound it inside and draw fouls.
Raptors – 36.3%
Magic – 42.1%

Safe to say that the Magic won this game by solid offensive rebounding and getting to the line.

Player Impact

Bosh marginally led the way, but Johnson was HUGE. Amir had his best game as a Raptor without Belinelli dropping ridiculous passes to him.

The advantage the Raptors had on opening night, quickness and conditioning, was a non-factor against the Grizzlies who have a young, athletic team. Bargnani was able to take Shaq/Big Z off the hop, but Gasol and Z-Bo were able to counter, and in some instances, nullify the Raptors front court. As big a night as Bosh had (37pts 12rebs), Randolph countered with a 30pt 7reb monster of his own.

I think they just had a little bit better conditioning than the Cavaliers.They were coming up a lot harder, their fast-break. I don’t think Cleveland did a very good job at fastbreaking against us and that put a lot of pressure on us.

That doesn’t sit right with me. We beat an Eastern Elite, and fell asleep behind the wheel playing a young – up ‘n coming one? One that draftee Thabeet 2nd overall? We didn’t know that a young team with some of the best young wings (Gay, Mayo, Carroll) wasn’t going to push and attack?

Orlando has come out the gates like a team that belonged in the Finals; sans Rashard Lewis. They have convincingly won their first two against Philly and Jersey by an average of 12pts. Howard has been a monster, averaging 20.5pts 18.5rebs. Yea, he has grabbed 37 rebounds in the first two games of the year. That’s ridiculous.

I wandered over to Orlando Magic Daily to see what our TrueHoop brethren had to say about their recent game against the Nets:

It’s not a win the Magic will look back on — surely, it’s one of those wins where you forget about it on the plane ride home — but it’s the type of win an elite team is supposed to win. It was ugly, but it gives you confidence knowing the Magic can take care of a team when they didn’t shoot well and were missing two key starters.

The tone in the things being said is jarring for me. Against the Cavs, the Raptors were able to withstand a run by an elite team while they wore down. Against the Grizz, they couldn’t. Athleticism and conditioning seem to be an issue for our guys. The Magic on the other hand were able to win ugly while missing two starters. The Magic are an athletic team. With Carter expected to come off the bench, the starting 5 will be tough to deal with.

Match-ups

Calderon vs Nelson
All I can think about is Swirsky saying that Calderon will own Nelson in those playoffs, and that backfiring. Nelson straight up owns Calderon. He is a tough cover: strong, quick, a bulldog. He had an off-game against Harris, so I am sure he will rebound.
The Edge: Magic

DeRozan vs Reddick
With SVG saying he wont be surprised if JJ starts, chances are good VC is coming off the bench if at all. Reddick is Mr. Fundamental. Bit of a disappointment after a solid college career, but he is carving out a niche for himself. I can see it now: DeRozan will be sent to Howard in the low post; the ball gets kicked out to Reddick who nails an open trey or swing it around the perimeter for somebody to nail an open shot. Kid Dynamite has been playing great so far. He should give Reddick fits chasing him around the court, but I suspect being the one sent to double Howard wont bode well for the kid.
The Edge: Magic

Turkoglu vs Pietrus
It upsets me that the Magic got Pietrus so cheap (5yr/$25mill-ish). I was pleading for the Raptors to sign him, as he brought all the things we needed (at the time) need: defense, take his man off the bounce, slashes to the rim, rebounds and hit some shots, but alas, we got HO…Turkoglu has been playing pretty decently. Dropping 13 a game, grabbing 4.5, but not the playmaker we had hoped (2ast). I was ripped for saying his matchup with Gay would be even (a draw would be a generous assessment of what went down Friday), but I’m saying it will be a draw this time around. Pietrus will be the beneficiary of some open space created by Howard in the post, but will have a hard time covering Turk in the paint on offense. This will be an even match, book it.
The Edge: Even

Bosh vs Anderson
Bosh has been a beast the first couple games. You have to figure that having him score 37 is bad for the team. 20-25 is the perfect range, where he is producing, but not at the expense of a fluid offense. Anderson, whom our very own PHD Steve said was NOT to be slept on this season, has been proving just that. He was a throw in as part of the Carter trade, but the kid can play, and is starting ahead of Brandon Bass, who was looked at as the starting PF when they snatched him from the Mavs in the summer. Just don’t see Bosh slowing down against this team, not even after a night of partying with Jay-Z.
The Edge: Raptors

Bargnani vs Howard
LOL, doesn’t look good for Bargnani at all. Forget the playing defense on Howard, but keeping him off the boards. Howard should have zero problems cleaning up the boards given VL’s lack of rebounding/boxing out grit. Seeing the trouble Andrea had with Gasol, I cringe to think about the possible 40/20 Howard can drop on our boy.
The Edge: Magic

Injury Report

Raptors
Reggie Evans
Sonny Weems

Magic
Rashard Lewis
Vince Carter*
Adonal Foyle

Simulation

Our boy Jeremy Visser from That’s What I’m Saying, Guy… checked in with his simulation. You can hit him up on twitter @jeremy_visser. We’re keeping track of the simulations here.

The Raptors couldn’t handle an Orlando team that was missing Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis, falling 96-91 Sunday at the ACC. Chris Bosh had 29 points and a career-high 23 boards, but had trouble handling Dwight Howard, who had 28 and 13 of his own.

Aside from Bosh, the only Raptor in double digits was Hedo Turkoglu, who had 17 in his first game against his former team. Like Bosh, Andrea Bargnani had his hands full with Howard and was limited to just 17 minutes, picking up five fouls and scoring just five points in the process. Jose Calderon had eight points and six assists.

Howard was one of five Orlando players in double digits — Matt Barnes, starting in place of Carter, had 16, while Jameer Nelson had 15 and Michael Pietrus and Brandon Bass added 10 apiece.

Surprisingly, Toronto out-rebounded Orlando and had almost three times as many trips to the free throw line, but it wasn’t enough to come out with a win.

Keys to Winning

• Keep Howard off the boards, both of them
• Don’t double Howard in the low post, let him score 40, but keep everyone else in check
• Bargnani should never rotate on defense, stay with Howard at all times
• Let Jason Williams shoot as many transition-pull-up threes as he wants, seriously

Prediction

This has the makings of a solid game: The Raptors are reeling from a tough loss on the road to a team they shouldn’t have lost too; The Magic are 2-0 to start the season, and looking to secure home-court throughout the playoffs aka they will be coming hard and fast. As much as I would like to think that the Raptors will avenge their Friday loss, they wont (unless Bargnani duplicates his effort form the home opener, which you will excuse me if I don’t hold my breath for). Magic by 6.

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