I’ve always hated winning and losing in bunches; change needs to be balanced with consistency. Just like that, the team is 4-9 with 8 of the next 10 coming on the road. This team needs Bargnani and Bayless back at full capacity as soon as possible before it gets offensively ugly.

Bret Lagree from Hoopinion gave me his thoughts on a couple questions I had:

After that solid playoff run, and the hot start to the year, does losing Horford write-off the rest of the year; even if he gets back for the playoffs? Also, what’s the plan now, Zaza/trade?
Even without Horford, the Hawks should make the playoffs. His absence definitely diminishes the team’s chances of advancing in the post-season, but the team’s upside with Horford was the probably the second-round, yet again, anyway. His injury would have a had greater impact for a more ambitious, less risk-averse team.

I expect Zaza Pachulia will start (except when the Hawks play the Magic) and primarily split time at center with the undersized Ivan Johnson. Josh Smith might get some time as a nominal five in small lineups. It might work since Marvin Williams and Tracy McGrady (when healthy) are good rebounders for small forwards. If there’s a trade to be made, say Kirk Hinrich for a big man, the Hawks will surely consider it, but they might just as well off keeping Hinrich and doubling-down on perimeter defense.

McGrady’s renaissance has been a pleasant surprise after being brought in to replace some of the lost production from Crawford’s departure. He’s injured now, but can you see him being an important contributor to a team that can make deep playoff appearances?
McGrady was great for most of the first seven games but he’s already missed or been unable to contribute in six straight games since then. The Hawks can’t count on him every night, but he’s a difference-maker when healthy. They should do everything possible to have him available for the playoffs, regular season results be damned.

Are you guys regretting giving Joe Johnson that contract? Seems to me $20m should be able to buy you more than 18pts 4reb 4ast 16PER; is he an amnesty candidate if the Hawks aren’t contenders by next season?
Unfortunately, the only people who didn’t feel anticipatory regret for the Joe Johnson contract were those with the power to hand it to him. The organization has always overrated him on both ends of the floor and compounded that by assuming he’s not going to age. On the other hand, the amount the team has invested in Johnson ($75 million contract, $124 million contract, two first-round picks, Boris Diaw) has, at times, obscured that he’s been a pretty good player with the Hawks, even if he’ll do well to be an above-average player over the length of his current contract.

Injuries

Toronto
Aaron Gray
Jerryd Bayless
James Johnson
Andrea Bargnani

Atlanta
Al Horford
Tracy McGrady
Marvin Williams

Match-ups

Point Guard
You might be able to excuse Calderon’s performance against Rose all things considered. At least he somehow managed 8 assists. The Hawks don’t have the firepower at the point the Bulls do, but they are fairly deep; Kirk Hinrich is their 4th string quarterback. There is nothing about Jeff Teague, Jannero Pargo, some guy named Donald Sloan and Hinrich can do to scare me, but the Raptors are thin at the one. That said, the Hawks are great at sharing the ball, even with Josh Smith in the lineup, and that starts with the point.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Joe Johnson is one of my man-crushes in the league, and even though he’s not producing anywhere close to what a $20m/year guy should be producing, he’s heads and shoulders better than DeRozan. He’s one of those guys who’s good at everything really. He defends, scores from all over the floor, rebounds, shares the ball and plays heavy minutes. To make matters worse for DeMar, who didn’t get to the foul line against the Bulls on Saturday, is that JJ wont be bailing him out with cheap fouls, since he has a low foul rate.
Edge: Atl

Small Forward
With Kleiza in the lineup, and if guys play within themselves, there’s no reason why the Raptors can’t be ok-to-good at the small forward. It all comes down to Butler and Johnson listening to me and not shooting the ball just because they have the room to let loose. The Hawks are great at the 3 either, but they are fairly deep with veteran savvy. Stackhouse is still alive and reasonably useful, while Radmanovic has found a home…doesn’t matter really…
Edge: Even

Power Forward
Looks like Bargnani is still out, which basically writes the game off. I find myself hoping the Raptors go small ball, and give Kleiza and Johnson (can’t believe I’m saying this) the bulk of the minutes at the four if Andrea can’t go. Davis needs Anthony Robbins or something…not sure, but what I do know is that Josh Smith will make him humble if he doesn’t come correct.
Edge: Atl

Center
The only exciting aspect of this match-up is being able to say Zaza with some flare. Amir/Magloire can probably keep their heads up in this one, but it doesn’t matter. The Raptors caught a break with Horford going down for 3-4 months with an injury, otherwise this would have gotten ugly, fast.
Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

• Get to the foul line; as a team on Saturday against the Bulls, the Raptors went to the foul line seven times (made 1 of them); no wonder they were only able to muster 64 points. The Hawks have a few good defenders, so you have to get as many easy/cheap points as possible
• Perimeter defense; the Hawks like to throw the ball around and stick jumpers. It kills them in the playoffs, but wins them games in the regular season. The Raptors have done a great job of giving teams nice looks from the perimeter; seems like a match made in heaven. need to tighten things up
• Let Josh Smith shoot as much as he wants

The Line

The Hawks are at home and haven’t lost to the Raptors in over two years; there’s a reason they are 11 point favourites.

The Raptors are looking to extend their home winning streak to 2 tonight against the Hawks. Just looking ahead, after tonight’s game, the Raptors have the Pistons at home before heading out on the road for a 5 game skid that will see them play Washington, New Orleans, San Antonio, Orland and the Heat. Based on past performances, this could be the start of a 7 game skid, but 2-5 seems more reasonable.

Add in the potential Melo trade involving the Nets and Pistons, and the stage is set for the Raptors descent into the bottom five of the league, which Franchise from Raptors HQ claims wouldn’t be a bad thing. I’m not one for tanking, but they might not need too if this trade goes through (the Nets/Pistons will win more games with upgraded rosters, and clarity of roles in the Pistons case).

The last time these guys played, the Hawks rather easily handed the Raptors a loss by moving the ball around masterfully and attacking in the paint with their bigs. With the Hawks playing much better since and having refined their offensive sets, which rely much less on iso-plays, things could be much worse for the short-handed-injury-plagued Raptors. Hopefully memories of an embarrassing 11-point 3rd quarter will fuel the fire for retribution.

I briefly spoke to Bret Lagree from Hoopinion about the Hawks and tonights game:

From what I’ve seen/heard, seems like this team likes to play together and are very supportive of one-another. What’s been the driving force of the camaraderie, and who’s the glue guy?
Al Horford is an extremely efficient offensive player and essential to the team defensive concept. The Hawks are at their best when Joe Johnson and/or Jamal Crawford are making jump shots but Horford is the constant, two-way presence.

How do you feel about the trade rumour of Jose Calderon + a big to the Hawks + a big? Who would be included from Atlanta’s side, and who would you want in return?
I can’t see the Hawks exacerbating their cap hell, burying Jeff Teague deeper, and failing to improve their perimeter defense in one fell swoop by acquiring Calderon. That might just be wishful thinking on my part.

Josh Smith seems fully capable of putting up 20/10 consistently, what’s been keeping him from doing that?
A desire to shoot jump shots, the team’s willingness to indulge that, and a constant need for Smith to challenge opponents’ field goal attempts as a help defender.

19pts 4rebs 5ast wasn’t exactly what the powers that be had in mind when they handed Joe Johnson that massive contract. It makes it hard to offer Crawford a reasonable contract to keep him as the spark-plug off the bench. What’s going to happen to him?
Given that Johnson missed two weeks, played hurt (and had it affect his production) much of the season, and the Hawks are just one game off last season’s pace, its hard to say that not signing him would have hurt the Hawks seriously in the short term and it obviously would have increased their cap flexibility in the future.

With Jamal Crawford (younger, can score, but doesn’t have the all around game) available, how badly would it have hurt the Hawks if they didn’t resign him, or pulled off a trade (possibly to the Knicks) with him as a principle?
I think there’s a decent chance he comes back to the Hawks on a multi-year deal for much less money per season. There isn’t a huge market for him and the Hawks love to re-sign their free agents. I think it’s better than 50-50 that they bring back Damien Wilkins and Jason Collins next season, too.

The Hawks have done very well against the Raptors, handing them some of the toughest losses they’ve endured over the last couple of season. What will be strategy heading into the game tonight?
If the Hawks simply run their offense, they can outscore the Raptors at least 9 times out of 10. I expect the Hawks to attack whatever match-up advantage they have on a given possession, either scoring quickly or swinging the ball around the perimeter for an open jump shot. It’ll be the good kind of isolation basketball.

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out
Sonny Weems – Day to day
Jose Calderon – Day to day
Jerry Bayless – Day to day

Atlanta
The whole team is healthy

Match-ups

Point Guard
Not sure that Bibby is an upgrade over Jose on perimeter defense, but I’ll digress. What we can agree is that Bibby has always seemed to get up to play against the Raptors; he hasn’t been lighting it up like he used too, but he did go 3-4 from beyond the arc the last time these cats played against each other. On the season, he’s shooting 49.1% from behind the arc, that’s good for second in the league and a career high. Bibby is still moving the ball around rather well, leading the Hawks to 5th in the league in assists. Their ball movement scares me, as the Raptors haven’t been the best at defensive rotations and closing out on shooters.

With the Raptors giving up so many good looks from the perimeter lately, Bibby can follow up his solid play against the Pacers (4-6 from beyond the arc) after 3 fairly brutal games in a row. Defending Bibby shouldn’t be so difficult: don’t leave him to help, and force him to put it on the floor. He’s basically there to shoot the ball and swing it to the open man; take that away and he’s got nothing. Calderon on the other hand…what more can we expect from him? He doesn’t practice between games because his feet are mangled, but has been able to increase his points and assists every month since the start of the season. You have to figure the foot injury is going to get worse, so the Raptors might be better served to sit him against teams like the Hawks where a win is a far-far-gone conclusion.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Call it what you want, but you can’t deny that DeRozan’s improvement couldn’t have come at a better time. Not sure what the turning point was, but we know that since putting up a lame 10pt performance in a loss to the Pistons on December 22nd, DeRozan has averaged 22.1pts since. We’re going to need every single one of those points tonight against the 8th ranked defense in the league.

A testament to this Hawks team is how quietly they were able to weather the storm of Joe Johnson’s injury, going 5-4 through the stretch while not conceding much ground against the Magic for 4th in the East (and actually beating the Magic 80-74 during his absence). Makes it much easier when you have a motivated Jamal Crawford, the owner of something in the vicinity of 31 4-point plays, who can carry the scoring load quite nicely and is in a contract year.

While Johnson has played well, but never really abused the Raptors over the years, Crawford has drank our milkshake every time he’s played us dating back to the Chicago years. Tempting Crawford to drive, and forcing him into a help defender, is the only chance of slowing him down. Much like DeRozan, the guy is a one-trick pony who’s major contribution is scoring. Unlike DeRozan (up until recently at least), his contribution is much more devastating. Johnson on the other hand contributes across the board and poses a much bigger problem if allowed to operate freely.

Like Bret said, the Hawks will be able to run their offense and sofa on the Raptors 9 times out of 10, and unless either/both these guys has an off game, i got nothing to offer in terms of a ours of action; hopefully DeRozan drops 31 and gets the line in 8-10 attempt range if he has any designs on countering these two.
Edge: Atlanta

Small Forward
Josh Smith’s scoring and rebounding has been impacted by his need to play help defense and block shots; if only we were so lucky as Raptor fans. Sure he shoots too much for a man of his ability, but he does so much else, you can almost forgive him.

This is where things get quite interesting in terms of match-ups and such. The Hawks have Josh Smith at the 3, and can quite easily shift him over to the 4 at will. He’s bigger, stronger, faster, taller than Kleiza, and with Amir among the walking wounded, can really affect both match-ups in Atlanta’s favour.

The size advantage Kleiza’s been enjoying on the offensive glass won’t be there tonight with the Hawks front court, who rebound very well on the defensive glass. Best bet will be to get hot from the perimeter and keep Josh out of the paint/lane to hopefully free up space for DeRozan and Bargnani to operate. I can live with Josh scoring on jumpers rather than getting into the lane and off the glass; this screams for someone of Julian Wright’s ability and mind-set…
Edge: Atlanta

Power Forward
The toll that Amir Johnson’s body has been put through since Reggie’s gone down has been staggering. He’s basically battling in the paint, on both ends of the floor, alone. Better yet, he’s been doing it recently with noticeable pain. Ed Davis, while improving, isn’t ready for major minutes yet, but is doing what he can. Frankly, he’s been doing a good job considering. I imagine we can expect more of the same tonight against Horford; a guy I would trade Bargnani for in a second. Not hating, just that I prefer well rounded players.

If Jason Collins (yes, he’s still in the league) can’t cover Bargnani, expect a switch with Horford and Collins. Actually, the best hope the Raptors have match-up wise is shifting Horford to 5, Smith to 4 and playing Maurice Evans or Marvin Williams at the 3 where Kleiza can flex his stuff a bit more.
Edge: Atlanta

Center
For some reason, Collins has seen a resurgence of sorts with the  Hawks and is getting some play. Can’t imagine why considering he’s mostly 6 fouls to throw at somebody. Regardless, I think we can all agree that Bargnani will abuse him if he’s covering the Italian. If Horford shifts over, we can also agree that Bargnani has the size/strength/speed to battle Al, but the match-up will ultimately be decided by Bargnani’s ability to battle on the boards and do the dirty work. Horford will be out of his comfort zone on defense coming out so far to defend Andrea, that I kind of like both match-ups considering how sweet he’s shooting the ball lately. It’s going to take a big night by Andrea if the Raptors hope to stay competitive and be in a position to steal one at home.
Edge: Toronto

The Line

The gamblers have the Hawks as 4.5 point favourites with an over/under of 205.5. This game has all the makings of a game that can get out of hand quickly, especially with the Raptors so banged up. My concerns are really on the Raptors ability to create quality scoring opportunities for themselves. While the Hawks are an athletic bunch, I like the Raptors chances in a faster tempo game. Since the Hawks are 26th in the league in pace, going all helter-skelter could keep the Hawks from getting into sets and sharing the ball more efficiently.

Today’s game has the potential to be a rough one for the Raptors. You remember them right? They’ve hurt us like that a couple times, wasn’t just a one-time thing.

I checked in with Bret LaGree from Hoopinion about the Hawks and today’s matchup:

It seems as though all the Hawks wins have come against teams that are not in playoff contention, and all their losses against teams who are playoff calibre; how good is this team really?
I think they’re the mid- to high-40s win team everybody expected. They didn’t do anything to address their weaknesses in the off-season so the degree of improvement or regression from last season to this would be down to who improved and who got worse. Quite predictably, Jamal Crawford got worse and Al Horford got better. The organization clearly hoped that Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson wouldn’t get any worse and that hasn’t been the case so far. Of those they hoped would improve, Marvin Williams has been hurt, Jeff Teague has either not received or not earned a lot of minutes (and it’s a fair question as to which is the case), and Josh Smith’s been allowed to shoot a lot of jump shots, which has hurt the team even though he’s possibly improved in that respect.

Joe Johnson signed the biggest contract of the summer, and his production has dropped. His usage rates seems about the same, but his percentages are down. How much of this is an injury issue, and how much is this a matter of Joe getting older?
Some of it’s the injury to his left hand, some of it’s him getting older, and some of it’s a cold streak. I’m as big a critic of his contract as anybody (In fact, I argued for trading Johnson and building around Smith and Horford as early as the Summer of 2008) but he didn’t just become a 28% three-point shooter overnight.

It was a bad deal because he was never a player to build around and even the most rational, yet optimistic, Hawks fans could only seriously argue he’d remain as good as he’s been for two of the six years of the contract. For or against the deal, we knew it would a millstone around the franchise’s neck at some point but even I didn’t suspect it would be apparent so soon.

I heard some rumblings that Josh Smith would need to be moved because of salary cap issues. In my opinion, you can’t come close to replacing what he does on the court at the salary he’s being pad, can you shed some light on this?
The Josh Smith trade rumors are completely made up by NBA generalists though, to be fair, they are the product of rational, deductive thought:

1. The Hawks are in an untenable salary cap situation through 2013-14 if they want to improve the team.
2. Al Horford is the team’s best player.
3. If they build around Horford, Josh Smith is the only other player on the roster with any trade value.

Ergo, the Hawks will have to trade Josh Smith.

They won’t and they shouldn’t. That doesn’t mean they’ll do what they should (focus on the draft especially buying second-round picks, scour the D-League for cheap bench players with upside, bring in NBA-ready players from Europe) any more than they did what the should have done with Joe Johnson this Summer. They’ll probably muddle along as a slightly above .500 team on the strength of Smith of Horford and the motley (and expensive) crew surrounding them.

Whats the ceiling for this team as currently constructed; they are basically the same team that fell apart in the playoffs? Do we see Jamal Crawford and/or Marvin Williams get traded to upgrade the point?
Last Summer, Jamal Crawford’s trade value was Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton’s expiring contract. With the uncertainty of the CBA plausibly diminishing the value of expiring deals and Atlanta’s lack of depth (and their draft history should they only be able to get a pick for him), the Hawks are probably better off keeping Crawford all season. Still, if a team gets desperate around the trade deadline, they’ll certainly remain open to offers.

Marvin Williams remains an enigma. He’s the only true small forward on the roster (seriously, I have envious thoughts of Julian Wright. Speaking of which, why can’t someone get at least Lou Amundson’s career out of him?) and thus has outsized defensive value for the team yet he’s horribly overpaid for what the team asks of him offensively and there’s no real reason to believe he’s capable of taking on a larger offensive role. He’s clearly not capable of demanding a larger offensive role but that’s largely due to him being a ridiculously and famously nice guy which itself probably tempers the criticism he might receive. Whatever the truth might be, I doubt there’s much of a market for his services.

How do the Hawks match-up with the Raptors? What will be the strategy coming into this game?
The Hawks have long benefited from playing teams that push the tempo because, though the Hawks are at their best in transition, neither of their starting guards look to push the ball up the floor consistently. And they’re better against bad defensive teams. That’s true for everyone but a jump shooting team (which they remain despite Larry Drew’s installation of a motion/flex offense) tends to be both more volatile in their results and more dependent on the opposing defense for the quality of those results.

That the Raptors are the league’s best offensive rebounding team could really trouble the Hawks. Most of the time, they leave defensive rebounding to Smith and Horford (if the second unit’s on the floor, they leave it to Zaza Pachulia), a tendency that’s been aggravated by Marvin Williams playing through a knee injury. The rest of the Hawks gave a concerted and effective effort to rebound Washington’s missed shots on Thanksgiving night but I’ll be more convinced that’s a permanent change when the Hawks aren’t playing a team on the road, on a holiday, and reduced to playing three guards all night.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Ed Davis – Out

Atlanta
NA

Match-ups

Point Guards
Is it me, or does it seem Bibby’s been in the league much younger than he has? I also seem to think he’s lik 36…regardless, he’s still here, and not playing so bad. He can still shoot 50%FG 51%3FG, but that’s about it. Teague on the other hand can’t shoot the 3 as well, but is much better off the dribble. He likes to get to the rack, so will be attacking every chance he gets. Neither of them can defend worth a lick, so obviously…

Calderon’s been playing solid since Jack got the boot traded, averaging 14pts 12ast over the last two games. He seems to be hustling a bit more on defense, but that doesn’t mean he’s improve his defense. I fear Bibby getting open look-after-look all night, especially with the attention Smith and Horford will be getting around the basket.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
I don’t have a good feeling about this positional match-up tonight. The Hawks come with a one-two of Johnson and Crawford, both of whom have beat on us over the years (Crawford especially). DeRozan has been playing terribly crappy awful over the last 5 games, averaging up a meager 7.6pts 2.4rebs 2.4ast. Barbosa’s been doing a great job of scoring and leading the second unit off the bench, but he’s still needs DeRozan to carry his load, or it’s really all-for-naught. Meh…
Edge: Hawks

Small Forward
What a bust Marvin Williams has been since he got drafted, and going ahead of Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Raymond Felton; all point guards who the Hawks have been desperate for-forever. The kid is long, athletic and only 24 so there is some hope he can improve (maybe a change of scenery will do him well). What he does a good job of is defending the wing, so Weems and Kleiza will have to work a bit harder than they normally do to get their shot off. Williams has a tendency to disappear during games, which Weems and Kleiza can exploit if he hit the ground running. I gotta work Peja into this somehow, but he doesn’t give us anything but scoring, but at least I worked him into this
Edge: Toronto

Power Forward
The season seriously flashed before my eyes when Reggie went down. The combination of Reggie and Amir were able to compensate for Bargnani’s lack of rebounding. Now with Dorsey (I guess it will be Dorsey) coming in as the second PF off the bench…I don’t see good things, especially if Amir regresses to his fouling ways forcing Dorsey to play a bigger role than he should. Smith likes to shoot, but he’s not very good at it, so giving him the space to launch a couple jumpers would be a good strategy here. In transition, Smith has the ability to get back on defense and swat shot attempts into the 5th row, but challenging him in the paint is important.
Edge: Hawks

Center
Bargnani needs to rebound tonight; there’s no two ways about it; the 5.6 boards he’s been averaging over the last 5 games wont cut it, not with Reggie out. Al Horford is a champ. The guy plays a great all around game, and can be dangerous if left un-checked when he’s on offense. The Hawks wont need to switch up defensively to cover Bargnani on the perimeter since both Horford and Smith have the ability to get out on Bargnani. This match-up basically comes down to rebounding. With Reggie out, BARGNANI HAS TO TAKE REBOUNDING VERY SERIOUSLY FROM NOW ON. That’s all there is to it.
Edge: Even

Gotta cut this short, but the Raptors need to do a few things tonight:

• Communicate on defense; the Hawks are 3rd in assists and move the ball around like angels. The Raptors need to be vocal on defense, and play aggressively on the perimeter. Can’t let them throw passes around easily.
• Full team effort on rebounding; with Reggie out, there’s going to be a lot of rebounds up for grabs. I have zero faith in Bargnani’s ability to rebound, so it will be up to everyone else to make up for his transgressions.
• Bounce back from Friday; the Celtics didn’t pound the Raptors like I thought they would which spoke to the Raptors resiliency. Need some more of that against a Hawks team that isn’t as good as they might appear to be.

The gamblers have the Raptors as 1.5 point favourites, at home, meaning this game is pretty much anyones match. It’s going to take a full 48, but I think the Raptors can pull this off.

1. Rid us of Turkoglu
2. Bring in a complimentary piece to Bosh

The fact of the matter is that Bosh wont be making a decision until he is allowed to talk to some teams, and see what they have to offer; at which point he will either sign on the dotted line, or give Colangelo his short list of teams he wants to play for.

Either way, unless we trade yet another lottery pick (and throw DeRozan in), I expect this trade to make the Raptors better in both the short/long run. Take that however you want, but we all have another week to go nuts on the ESPN trade machine.

I had a chance to talk to Rob Mahoney from The Two Man Game about the Mavericks, and what the f*ck happened.

Sam Holako: WTF happened???

Rob Mahoney: Well, that depends on who you ask. Talk to the Maverick faithful, and the team peaked too early; after riding a big winning streak following the Mavs’ acquisitions at the deadline, the team had faded going into the playoffs. Talk to the realists, and they’ll tell you of a Dallas team that never could quite get it together defensively, and lacked the offensive versatility to protect Dirk from aggressive coverage. Ask an extremist, and you’ll likely hear stories of how centuries-old prophecies as told by soothsayers around the globe foretold of Rodrigue Beaubois’ ascension, and Rick Carlisle’s stubborn denial of the rookie’s destiny led to an extended fourth quarter benching in the decisive Game 6 and a destruction of the natural order of the universe.

Needless to say, it’s all a bit complicated. Still, the easy part is that the team just wasn’t ready. They weren’t good enough on either side of the ball to get past San Antonio in the first round — much less a potential match-up with Phoenix or L.A. later in the playoffs — even if they fell just short in almost every loss.

SH: One thing I have admired about the Mavs/Cuban is that they have continually retooled via big moves in an effort to win a championship (Butler, Haywood, and Marion). However, I’m not so sure Carlisle was/is the right guy for the job (although I’m a big fan of his). You touched on his benching of Beausboise a little; while I’m not convinced he would have saved the season if played, I can’t help but think that specific event was symptomatic of a larger issue. Is it time to reduce Kids role on the Mavs and increase Patrices? Does Carlisle have what it takes to make this happen without things detiorating?

RM: I really do think he can make it happen. Carlisle has shown a lot of flexibility during his time in Dallas (his reluctance to play Beaubois was the exception, not the rule), and that’s crucial. I mean, he benched Caron Butler in a playoff game. It was the right move, but the real question is how many coaches would even be willing to do that? That was a lot of salary left sitting on the bench and a former All-Star, but Caron was hurting the offense and Carlisle knew it.

Coaches need to be willing to play whichever players give the team the best chance to win, regardless of standing or reputation. Carlisle has shown that he’s willing to do that (except with Beaubois, apparently, but again that’s more a fluke), and he’ll continue to alter the rotation until he’s satisfied.

For what it’s worth, the Mavs — from Rick Carlisle to Mark Cuban to Donnie Nelson — have made it clear that Beaubois will have a bigger role next season, both playing off the ball as he did this past season and with more time as the back-up point. That probably won’t indicate much of a drop-off for Kidd, but the team may be more conservative with Jason’s minutes in the regular season.

SH: What’s this kids upside? Not very often you hear people scream about benching a late first round pick in favour of Jason Kidd.

RM: It’s incredibly high. The physical tools are all there — the speed, the length, the athleticism, the body control — and once he finds ways to properly utilize all of his gifts, he’s going to be a force. In the meantime, he was only second on the team in points per minute, led all rookies in PER and true shooting percentage, and shot 50-40-80 from the field. He doesn’t have a ton of experience, but at the same time I wouldn’t call him “raw”; his instincts serve him well. He’s coming along at the defensive end as well, but he played defense like a rookie. I expect a little more nuance in his defensive performances in year two, with a better understanding of opposing players’ tendencies, how he fits into a team defensive concept, etc.

I see no reason why Beaubois can’t be a star in this league for a long time. All of the components are there, it just takes time and a little opportunity.

SH: An issue that has split Raptor fans into two groups is the notion of Chris Bosh as a max player. Some of us, myself included, feel that he is an elite level player in the league who is worthy of a max contract (in terms of his worth on a championship team, I feel he’s more a Pippen than a Jordan), while others violently disagree. I want to ask that question of you, can a championship team be built around Nowitzki at this stage of his career? Is he a max player? Would the Mavs be better off dealing him and rebuilding around Beaubois?

RM: For the record, I think Bosh is a max player and I’ll defend that notion to the grave. Similarly, Nowitzki is still a max player, even if he may take a lower-than-max deal to help out the team.

You can still build an offense around Dirk Nowitzki, it’s just not the easiest thing in the world. There is no template to follow, because Dirk isn’t a traditional low-post player or a super-quick point guard or an athletic swingman. The league has never seen anything quite like Dirk; there have been players with similar skills, but no one that combines Nowitzki’s unique versatility, talent, and efficiency. He just needs the right components around him on both ends of the court to secure a title, and he’s never really had that.

Even in 2006 when the Mavs went to the Finals, the thing that really put Dallas over the top was Devin Harris’ ability to penetrate. Harris is the only post-Nash point guard the Mavs have had that could really attract defensive attention. Jason Kidd, for all of his talents, doesn’t command coverage. He doesn’t penetrate particularly well, and he’s not forcing defenses to adapt to his movements. Similarly, Erick Dampier has been the most successful center of the Nowitzki era. I appreciate Damp more than anyone, but if the Mavs had a superior center in the last few seasons, Dirk could have a title to his name.

He still could, but it’s going to take some kind of adjustment. The guys currently on the roster — Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, et al — are talented, but probably not talented enough nor do they possess ideal skill sets. It doesn’t take a monumental change, but Dallas needs a few upgrades, and given that, Nowitzki could still be competitive for a title. There may be a day when the Mavs would be wise to build around Beaubois, but it’s not today. Or tomorrow. And probably not the day after that, either.

SH: Nowitzki isn’t getting any younger, but he still has a few years at an elite level in him. Cuban has shown the chops to make things happen, and has continually loaded up year after year with players that have put together great regular season teams, but failed in the playoffs. What players should he be targeting this offseason to compliment Dirk; or is trading Dirk the only answer?

RM: If I had my pick of any potential acquisition, I’d shoot for Dwyane Wade. Not exactly a great center that can anchor a defense, but he’s an elite scorer, a terrific playmaker, and an excellent defender that fills a positional need. That said, Wade won’t be giving the Mavs the time of day, which makes some of the other players that could be on the market this summer — guys like Joe Johnson and Andre Iguodala — far more reasonable targets.

Bosh is a bit of an odd fit in Dallas. Offensively, he’d be a dream, but I’m skeptical of Bosh and Dirk’s ability to coexist on defense. That said, he’s a hell of a player, and if the Mavs had a shot of nabbing him, they’d do their best to take that shot.

That shot would be something like Erick Dampier (or really, his instantly expiring contract that wouldn’t cost Toronto a penny), Rodrigue Beaubois, and DeShawn Stevenson’s expiring contract. If the Mavs were particularly desperate, they could agree to take on Hedo Turkoglu in exchange for Caron Butler, but that would sour the deal rather substantially in my opinion. It’s not a knockout for the Raps, but I honestly don’t see Toronto getting any return value better than Beaubois; he’s young, talented, and inexpensive, and would really only come with the additional cost of Stevenson’s one-year $4.15 million deal. Beaubois may not be Chris Bosh, but he’d be an excellent young piece that when paired with DeMar DeRozan, could give Toronto the most athletic (and one of the most exciting) backcourts in the league.

–

Damn interesting proposal if you ask me. Have to say, if Bosh said he didn’t want to play for the Raptors anymore, and the Mavs agreed to take Turkoglu in a S&T, gotta say this deal gives us lots of options in the short and long term.

I’m on Twitter.

I checked in with Surya Fernandez from Hot Hot Hoops to talk about the Heat and the newly formed commission (Bosh, Wade, LeBron and Joe Johnson). We’re still getting weak trade offers for Bosh; I guess a 24pt 11reb a night kind of guy has no value around the league. It’s actually making me question what I think I know about basketball (which granted isn’t very much since I thought the Suns were going to be thumped buy the Spurs in the 2nd round).

Without even making a reach, Riley has a lot of options to pair Wade with an elite level forward this summer (Bosh, Boozer and Stoudemire), so you can expect him to jump at the first option regardless of who he really covets. I’m going out on a limb and predicting Bosh doesn’t end up in Miami this summer, but that the Heat will be a 50 win team next season with the additions Riley makes.

Sam Holako: What do you make of this free agent commission Wade, LeBron, Bosh and Johnson have put together to discuss their fates? Seems sinister, and frankly, I’m a little disappointed about it – whatever happened to being a man?

Surya Fernandez: It’s all a matter of perception. Toronto needs to find another willing team to do a sign and trade should Bosh want to go elsewhere to get something decent in return and start a new era. The Heat have been treading water for the last couple of years and are finally free of that huge chunk of salary cap that dated back from Shaq’s last contract extension. Wade doesn’t sound like he’s leaving so there’s little doubt that he’ll try to do some recruiting at this summit. There’s nothing else for him to talk about. I don’t mind players that are friends getting together and talking about something this important in their lives and careers. Maybe they all go their separate ways and nothing much comes of it. Just imagine what owners and GMs talk about when they all get together. It must be worse than a sewing circle.

SH: With Wade staying, I look at the team, and don’t see much of anything there: Chalmers is a nice player, Beasley has talent, I’m a fan of Joel Anthony, but outside of that, what does Miami do to round out the roster? What does Miami do to become relevant again?

SF: o question it’s a huge question mark with that many contracts clearing the books. But there is a lot of flexibility that comes with that. Udonis Haslem and Dorell Wright are solid players that can be retained or used for sign and trades to secure a point guard, the Heat’s biggest need. Chalmers and Beasley can be traded but if they stay will provide depth.

I’m not a fan of simply giving out max contracts to just anybody and I would pass on Amar’e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer and Joe Johnson because other teams that may miss out on the bigger names will be offered a max contract by a team like the Knicks, Clippers or Nets. If you can sign James or Bosh then that’s great but the Heat could also use the rest of the $10-12 million to round out a roster with some quality big men and long range shooters. I just wrote (Affordable free agents that the Miami Heat should pursue) about nine free agents that the Heat should go after if they went this path.

Another method that isn’t discussed much is to hold on to some of the cap space to facilitate trades with other teams after the season starts leading up to the trading deadline. Riley said last month that the makeover process could take up to 18 months. Teams will want to shed contracts (like the Marcus Camby or Eric Maynor trades) and the Heat could absorb them easily (and perhaps acquire a few draft picks in the process) to get some more depth leading up to a playoff run.

SH: That’s quite the list, what stands out for me is Oberto and Foye. With the Wizard probably shopping Arenas; what would you think about engineering a trade to land Arenas and Oberto for cap space and Haslem, still having enough cap space to sign a Bosh? That would be a lethal backcourt.

SF: On paper it would be a lethal backcourt. The problem is that the Wizards on paper before the start of this season were thought of as a playoff team. First you have that huge contract that in and of itself would be drawback even if it was the Arenas of a few years ago. Then you have the health issues that he never seemed to have recovered from then the gun incident that derailed the entire franchise. I’d stay away from him.

If Miami wants to try it out with an oft-injured player past his prime I’d rather take on Elton Brand and net the second overall pick too from the Sixers. His contract is just as bad as Arenas but at least then you could rationalize it by having two players who combined make “X” amount of money because of this trade. Both could be useful immediately for the Heat if Brand is at least healthy enough to contribute like Jermaine O’Neal did this past season (putting aside the Celtics playoffs). And the Heat will have an awesome rookie talent at that pick.

SH: Philly was my next option; I really think Brand will surprise folks once he gets out of Philly. Make me an offer for Bosh in a S+T.

SF: You can have your first round pick back from the Marion-O’Neal trade plus another first rounder, Cook and Chalmers (who both need a change of scenery as well). It’s better than losing him for nothing. Offering Beasley as well would be the last resort since Bosh might be persuaded to just simply sign in Miami, not have to pay income tax and the Heat could keep those players and picks I just offered to your Raptors and send them to another team for a solid player who makes less like Rudy Gay. I like Bosh but if the Raptors want to trade him to the Lakers for oft-injured Andrew Bynum then be my guest. The Heat would then go after Stoudemire and maybe Boozer.

SH: I think it’s safe to say he wont leave $30mil guaranteed on the table, so thanks for giving us back our 1st rounder, lol. Can you talk about Riley a bit. Heard he may want to take over as coach again, dropping Erik Spoelstra like he did SVG, if the Heat land another elite player to pair with Wade. Is this just all chatter, or are there some legs to these rumours?

SF: Riley threw that out there as bait for free agents to consider should they want to directly play for him. But even though he only would consider it if he was asked to now it’s hard to not to see Spoelstra as a lame duck after saying that. Quite frankly, I think the Heat has done enough for Erik since hiring him to cut video back in 1995 so I really wouldn’t mind it if the Heat had a veteran seasoned coach going forward. If it has to be Riley so be it. People complain enough that the Heat are somewhat wasting the last couple of years of Wade’s prime and I don’t see Spoelstra as a coach to take your team deep in the playoffs. He might be good at analyzing videos and preparing his players but his in-game decisions, robotic substitution patterns and poor play-calling in late game situations have been the subject of tough criticism from diehard Heat fans.

Van Gundy was squeezed out because Shaq did not want to be coached by him anymore after the Pistons series in ’05. That’s what can happen when teams employ superstars and GMs and owners have to choose whether to listen to them or not. I’m not defending Riley (and I’m positive he smelled a golden opportunity to collect another coaching ring) but sometimes it’s not as simple an issue as it may seem from outsiders looking in. The end result back then was a ring, let’s see what happens this time around.

SH: From the outside looking in, it seemed as though Riley created the atmosphere for SVG to ultimately get canned. Regardless, he was the right man for the job. Could we interest you in Turkoglu?

SF: Agreed but SVG really did muck things up a bit at the end of the Pistons series though. It sure looked like a slimy move on Riley’s part but it sure worked out. Not surprising Riley might consider jumping back in if the roster starts looking like championship material this year.

The Heat only should take Hedo if they can get Marcus Banks back!

SH: So the Heat tried to trade Beasley for Dooling, and were denied (they say he plays a very similar game to Yi); why is Beasley’s value so low?

SF: There is no accuracy to that report. It came out of a podcast with nobody to corroborate it. Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel has already confirmed that the Heat never made such an offer.

There’s no comparison between Beasley and Yi. It’s almost laughable. If you’re referring to Sebastian Pruiti’s comparison to them on Nets Are Scorching all I can tell you is that stats don’t tell the whole story. Stats don’t speak about how his unexperienced coach has never put Beasley in a situation to succeed on the court, how Beasley has never had a consistent role in this team or how he’s never had a chance to play with a decent playmaking point guard since he arrived in the NBA only two years ago.

Quite frankly I’m glad his value is perceived to be low so maybe he’ll stick around. Maybe it’s his personality or maybe it’s the off-court issues. I don’t know how many players in the 4-5 million dollar range could put up 15 points and 6 and a half rebounds in less than 30 minutes while playing in an offense that is solely geared towards Dwyane Wade. Power forward should not be a position of concern for the Heat with so many holes to plug so I can’t really justify carving out such a huge slice of the cap space for Bosh or Boozer.

Yes, of course he needs to work on his game and his defense (as should all young NBA players strive to do this summer). But give him a better coach, more minutes without fear of immediately being pulled off the court because of an error, and a true point guard who can run plays for him that can give him some easier looks closer to the basket. Then we can talk about whether he’s a bust or not. I don’t know how much more value the Heat could get out of that position.

Through the 90s, the Knicks were my favourite team, and if you liked a tough, bruising team oozing with heart, then they were the team for you. When the Raptors and Knicks were battling in the playoffs, I was never more torn; ultimately I cheered the Raptors, but had the Knicks got through….

While they don’t have great talent to surround LeBron and Bosh (for sake of argument), the team does provide the lure of being a God in New York if someone can deliver a championship. For the record, regardless of what they offer, I’m against any deal with the Knicks since they are a division rival. The last time we did that, we got BURNED in the playoffs; not looking for a repeat.

I spoke to Dan L. from The Knicks Fan Blog about the state of the Knicks, and got some interesting tidbits from him:

Sam Holako: There isn’t much to talk about the Knicks during the regular season since the last couple years has all been about making a run at two max free-agents this summer. Where do you realistically put the Knicks chances of landing LeBron this summer? A sign and trade with the Cavs will prove difficult (what kind of deal do you put together for the MVP?). Also talk about the LeBrostimistic graph you have on your site, I love that thing.

Dan L.: I think it’s impossible to say what the Knicks’ chances are to get LeBron without being part of the “inner circle”. But I think the Knicks have a couple of things working in their favor. One is obviously that the Cavs got spanked so hard by the Celtics. They clearly aren’t a championship caliber team and they’re also ham-strung by salary commitments with the likes of Jamison, Gibson, Varejao, and Mo Williams. They won’t be signing any meaningful free agents.

It is hard to see the Knicks and Cavs pulling off a sign and trade, but it could happen if LeBron told them he’s going to the Knicks anyway and unless they deal they won’t get anything in return. For example the Knicks can offer the Cavs a massive salary cap exception and future picks for LeBron. With that exception the Cavs could hypothetically trade for Elton Brand and the second pick (Evan Turner). Maybe they could even convince the Knicks to part with Wilson Chandler. Mo Williams, Turner, Chandler, Jamison, Brand. I could think of worse teams.

Ha. The LeBroptimism meter right now is at 0 because honestly, I just don’t have any kind of bearing of what LeBron is going to do. He and his team have done a masterful job of keeping everyone in the dark, and there are a lot of teams that have positioned themselves to get LeBron. I think the only realistic options for LeBron if he leaves are the Knicks and Bulls because I’d be shocked if he went somewhere that didn’t have a major media presence. I’d add the Nets to the mix but I think their young talent is vastly overstated. The Knicks’ young talent was better than 12 wins. Also LeBron won’t want to play in Newark, I don’t think.

If I was being completely honest with my own gut, I’d put that LeBroptimism meter somewhat higher than 0.

SH: That would be Step 1; Step 2 would be find a running mate for him. Chris Bosh recently put the Knicks on his wishlist. Make me an offer for him.

DL: he only offer really is David Lee. Not sure what Raptors fans think about Lee but you could do much worse. He’s a terrific rebounder (though he doesn’t get the tough ones) and due to his terrific work ethic he transformed himself into one of the best shooting bigs in the league. He’s also an elite finisher. He can get his shot off in the paint and make it with such frequency that it never ceases to amaze me. You’ll be losing out by trading Bosh but maybe not by as much as you’d think.

The downside for the Raptors is that their biggest weakness is also Lee’s, in that he couldn’t guard a lamp post. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he’s a PF and the Knicks had him at center all year. Still, I’d think that the Raptors want to address their D this summer, and Lee isn’t going to do that.

Financially, Lee is going to make less than Bosh because under the collective bargaining agreement, his max is about $13.5 million. The Raptors would therefore get a trade exception in the deal of about $4 million.

Another option the Raptors could consider is adding Calderon or Turk to the mix and taking back Eddy Curry. This would get the Raptors out from under the cap predicament they put themselves in by next year.

It’s all dependent on what Lee wants though. If he just wants money and the Raptors offer him his max I think he would agree to go to Toronto because he would get bigger raises in a sign and trade. If other factors are more important to him, like staying in the New York area, and the money is similar, I could see him signing with the Nets.

SH: Not sure how Raptor fans would feel about paying Lee $13.5; even though double-double machines are hard to come by, I was thinking a 5yr/$50mill deal. A front court of Bargnani and Lee would be the worse defensive unit in the league, potentially, but Lee is one of the better players we could hope for in a sign-and-trade.

Interesting you bring up a Calderon/Turkoglu swap for Curry. What is Curry’s status? Can he be looked too to play 20minutes a night? He’s still pretty young, and has great size/athleticism (well he did). I’m assuming with the financial problems he’s said to be having, that he will at least be motivated to play harder for the next contract.

DL: I’d think that Lee is going to get more than $10 million on the market this summer. But I guess that remains to be seen.

You’re right about the raptors defense. They’d have to slide Bargs over to the 3 and find a way to get a defensive 5.

That’s not Eddy Curry, even if healthy. The potential Curry deal would be solely a salary dump for the Raptors. Knicks fans have been waiting for the old Curry to come back for over 2 years. The fact is that he’s played only a handful of games in each of the last two seasons and just doesn’t seem interested in playing basketball.

You’re right that Curry SHOULD be motivated in a contract year. But I’d be shocked if he had the desire to. And even if he did, I’d be doubly shocked if he stayed healthy.

SH: I want to examine something you said about Calderon or Turkoglu for Curry. Even if the Knicks somehow manage to get LeBron and Bosh, they would still need to have people around them to you know, play basketball at an NBA level. In the worse case scenario that they don’t land anyone in the summer to line up beside those two, what will this team look like?

DL: Honestly I think that’s an issue that the national media has drummed up in their echo chamber because they are biased against New York (true New York perspective here, huh?).

The team WILL have players on it. Obviously Turkoglu or Calderon could be one of those other players. If not, the Knicks should try to move Curry for another team’s expensive mistake, like Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton or Corey Maggette.

But let’s look at who is on the team right now. Danilo Gallinari played essentially his rookie year last year since he missed most of his first season with a back injury. He only finished second in the NBA in three pointers made. Folks in the national media have called him a “one-trick pony” but those of us who watch the Knicks every game know that he’s much more than that. Even the most negative tabloid beat writers like the New York Post’s Marc Berman jumped on the Gallinari bandwagon by the end of the year. He’s a terrific passer, and has a great basketball IQ, and most surprisingly, was probably the Knicks best defender last year other than Jarred Jeffries, both on the ball and in help.

Wilson Chandler is another player that most people who don’t follow the Knicks tend to ignore. It’s because he’s very quiet and unassuming. My opinion is that he doesn’t have star potential like Gallinari does, but there are observers who disagree. At the very least though he plays D, has a great mid-range game, and is a superb finisher.

Toney Douglas inexplicably failed to get off of Mike D’Antoni’s bench for most of the year but when D’Antoni finally let him play the Knicks what I like to say resembled a young Gary Payton. Douglas is very disruptive on the defensive end, is a very good shooter from distance, and LOVES the ball at the end of games. He’s very clutch.

These were 3 very young and/or inexperienced players but all of them have a world of potential. Importantly, they’re all very good fits with LeBron. Gallinari will can countless open jumpers off LeBron drives, and Wilson will get plenty of open looks slashing off of those same drives. Douglas will also knock down open shots and defend the perimeter, but more importantly, both he and Gallinari will take the pressure off LeBron at the end of games, which seems to be an issue for the King. It’s a good starting 5.

Aside from those 3 the Knicks have Bill Walker, who, after the trade deadline really came into his own for the Knicks. He has great range and shoots a high percentage. He’s also extremely athletic and can jump out of the gym. Finally, where Chandler doesn’t really read the defense, instead focusing on just making one on one moves to get open, Walker knows where to be on the court to space the floor and get open looks for himself both inside and out.

The Knicks also have 2 second round draft picks.

Finally, if the Knicks are able to land the big stars, look for some veteran players to sign on for cheap for a chance at the title. For example, PJ Brown signed with Boston for the minimum to win a ring. Same with Michael Finley.

I expect the Knicks to be able to round out their roster in a similar way.

SH: I’m actually pretty high on Chandler. I’ve seen quite a few Knicks games, and the kid is nice (Gallinari too). If LeBosh doesn’t pan out for the Knicks, would a Joe Johnson/Boozer/Stoudemire combination satisfy Knicks fans? The team obviously wouldn’t be a championship contender (the best they could hope for is the Hawks), but they would be in the high 40s in terms of wins and MAYBE a second round appearance.

DL: hose guys obviously represent the second tier of free agents. They’d improve the Knicks vastly but I wouldn’t be too thrilled about it. That’s particularly true because I assume those guys would be getting the max (or something close) and I don’t think they’re worth it.

It’s not the first choice and there are some fans who go by the mantra “LeBron or bust”. Not me though. I think Donnie Walsh had to take his best shot at building a dynasty. It might not work out that way but the idea was the right idea. Either way the Knicks will be much improved, even if they don’t get LeBron.

Since I have nothing better to do than think up scenarios, I’ve previously written that there are other options available besides just free agents. The Knicks could look at Tony Parker, for example. A trade of Chandler, Curry and Douglas for Parker, RJ and McDyess would make some sense if the Knicks also landed Amare. Parker, RJ (who plays better in an open system), Gallinari, McDyess, Amare, with enough flexibility to sign Melo in ’11.

Another example is a trade of Curry for Biedrins or Maggette and Anthony Randolph, while re-signing Lee and signing Joe Johnson. You’d have Tony Douglas, Johnson, Gallinari, Lee and Randolph/Biedrins. Not too shabby in my opinion, and a team that can grow better over the next few years. Not a title contender though, and you’d lose your ’11 flexibility, which I’d like to see the Knicks keep if they lose out on the big names.

So with a 1:21 left in the Bulls/Cavs game, Noah hits the go ahead basket, and neither side is able to score for the rest of the game; Bulls win and draw even (in win/loss) to the Raptors. They’re still 9th in the east, but when if the Raptors lose to the Hawks tonight, they will be in 8th place by half a game. So it goes in Raptorland…

The Raptors are the walking wounded, what terrible luck that Bosh and possibly Turkoglu are out when things are coming down to the wire. From the beginning of the season, even though a few of us talked about the Raptors being a .500 team, and the 5th to 8th spots in the East not being decided until the last couple games of the season, it doesn’t mean we’re not nervous about the last week of the season.

Including tonight, both the Raptors and Bulls have four games to go, and their schedules look like:

Toronto
@ Atlanta
vs Chicago
@ Detroit
vs New York

Chicago
@ New Jersey
@ Toronto
vs Boston
vs Charlotte

The Chicago game is a must win, there is no question, but the Raptors have owned Detroit and New York all year, if they can win 2 of those three games, I think the Raptors sneak into the playoffs. You have to remember that Boston can’t rest their guys much coming down the stretch since they are dead-locked with Atlanta for the 3rd seed (no one wants Cleveland in the 2nd round). I don’t know, I think the playoffs are on the horizon, and with Bosh rumoured to possibly return for the playoffs….could be a boon.

First things first though, the Hawks. I checked in with Bret LaGree of Hoopinion about the Hawks:

Q. With Boston holding the tie breaker, I took a look at both your schedules, and it looks like both you guys could go 3-1 over the next four games. Milwaukee might be a better first round match-up given they lost Bogut with the broken finger, but do you really want Cleveland in the 2nd round?
A. The Hawks are going to be a decent-sized favorite in the first-round and a big underdog in the second-round regardless of the particular match-ups. I do think Milwaukee (without Bogut) is a slightly better match-up for the Hawks than Miami. For selfish reasons, I’d like to avoid another first-round series with the Heat. I’m not sure I have anything interesting left to say about those two teams playing each other. Even though the Hawks finally beat Orlando, they still match-up terribly against the Magic. The Hawks are probably no more likely to trouble Cleveland but all their games tend to be competitive until the Hawks stop scoring in the fourth quarter.

Q. Can you rate the Hawks this season? From an outsider looking in, I would say they are having a great season, comments?
A. It’s a been good season. They’ve taken another small step forward. It’s hard to see how they get from 50 wins to contending for a championship (I suspect it involves putting good defensive guards in front of Smith and Horford but I don’t have a practical and plausible scenario for making that happen.) but the Hawks were so bad (and boring-bad) for so long that competence hasn’t grown stale.

Q. I know people are talking about Jamal Crawford as a replacement for Joe Johnson, but give me a break! Shouldn’t the Hawks be doing everything possible to keep Johnson in a Hawks uniform going forward? (I have a man crush on Joe Johnson btw)
A. I was open to the idea of trading Joe Johnson and building around Smith and Horford (and Josh Childress but that ship has sort of sailed) two summers ago. Johnson’s the team’s best player but not good enough to take up such a large share of the cap on a team whose owner’s aren’t going to pay the luxury tax. Plus, they gave up too much (Diaw and 2 first-round picks) to acquire him and wasted so many resources (several draft picks, the rights to Childress) that they’ve never been in a position to acquire a true franchise player to play alongside Johnson via trade. The best they can do with their disposable assets is acquire an over-paid Bibby or Crawford. Then they keep those shot-happy defensive liabilities and further limit their options with regard to the cap. I’m not sure Johnson will re-sign but I suspect the Hawks will aggressively try and keep him. They’ll have to make more than one major trade to replace Johnson if he leaves and the organization is terribly resistant to change.

Q. Josh Smith; gush about him a bit.
A. It’s nice to have him healthy again. He really struggled to move last season after he sprained his ankle against the Raptors in the fourth game of the season. He’s back to his normal rates on the offensive glass, blocking shots, and getting steals and now that he’s (mostly but not enough) playing inside of 15-feet where defenses have to pay attention to him the passing lanes have opened up and he can take advantage of that skill, too. If he ever stops taking jump shots (three a game this year, and he makes the long twos no more frequently than he made the three-pointers he’s abstained from this season) and gets back to being a 70% free throw shooter, he’ll be a legit All-NBA candidate.

Q. I’ve hated Al Horford since he raped TJ Ford a couple years ago, but the guy has been huge for me in my fantasy league, would you consider trading him for Andrea Bargnani, straight up?
A. If there’s a precise amount of alcohol I could consume that would significantly impair my judgment but not kill me, I might consider Bargnani for Horford. Marvin Williams for Bargnani better represents my interest in Andrea in a non-altered state.

There are only a few games left this season, I had to throw a jab at Bargnani…

The last time these guys played was that epic Bosh game winner with 2 seconds left in the game. The Raptors played hard and gave themselves a chance to win the game at the end (which is all we want from this team). The Hawks are in a bit of funk heading into the playoffs; they have dropped 3 of their last 4, including their most recent loss to the Pistons. In their defense, they were missing Joe Johnson, who is expected to return tonight (great!).

Regardless of Johnson’s status tonight, the Hawks have enough weapons to really give the Raptors problems. Starting Reggie Evans may not be the way to go tonight. Josh Smith is just too athletic for Evans, who wont be giving him much trouble on either end of the floor. If the Raptors want any shot at winning, Amir Johnson needs to start, and play heavy minutes alongside Bargnani against the Smith/Horford front line. I can’t see it any other way, just saying.

Bargnani bounced-back in the game against the Celtics with 17pts 5rebs after playing TERRIBLY against the Cavs (horrible). Although he hasn’t been shooting very well from the field lately, he has to figure out a way to get some shots when that double comes. With Bosh out, room to operate is sparse. His play will be crucial tonight. If all he does tonight is elbow Horford in the face, that would make me really happy.

I’m mostly just afraid of Jamal Crawford; the guy has been killing us for years, and is averaging 21pts a game against us this season – there are really no words…hate maybe…

If Turkoglu is out tonight, this game could be over as quickly as it starts. Move the ball around, rebound and tempt Josh Smith to shoot three’s, that’s the only way I see this ending well for the Raptors.

It’s the last Raptor Fan Friday tonight at the SCC, and we’ve had a great year with your support, and really appreciate y’all showing up in the snow/cold when the team wasn’t doing very well. So come on down and join us tonight. One love baby.

Unlike the Raptors, we continue to work hard at RR and bring the goods. The good news is that AltRaps’ and Arsenalists prediction for a 3-1 week is still alive. The bad news is that all three have to come on the road starting tonight in Atlanta. After losing Sunday to a Pistons team without Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, we can expect this team to want to rebound. You will all be in my thoughts tonight as this one is going to get messy, I can guarantee you that.

The last time these guys played, it didn’t go so well, with the Hawks taking down a 118-110 decision. There was some playoff seeding on the line in that game, as the Hawks had a couple game lead over the Bulls for the 4th seed, but the Raptors had already thrown in the towel, even if Marion hadn’t.

The Match-ups

The Point: Calderon and Jack are both coming off of good games last night, Calderon more so than Jack. Triano needs to manage these two better today…if Calderon is hot, ride the wave man, don’t be afraid. What happened last night was terrible. We have to make sure that if Calderon is hot, that we use that, and not take the ball out of his hand. On the flip side, Jack needs to know his role, and not try to take the game over. He hit some big shots last night, but we have a lot of guys who are better scorers (better shooters) than he is, and they need to be utilized for these types of roles. Bibby has always hurt the Raptors, and I don’t see that changing much. If Calderon/Jack leave him open, he will take and hit that three. Triano needs to NOT play them together as the thought of these two playing defense on a combination of Bibby/Crawford/Johnson makes the Pad Thai I had for lunch make some noise in my stomach.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Talent: Johnson is going to murder DeRozan/Belinelli/Wright/Jack/whoever covers him. I don’t see any ways around this one. Hopefully Jack will not be assigned even a minute of duty covering this guy. Crawford is the other Raptor killer on this team. How many times have we seen him drop 50 on us? Again, he wont have much trouble slicing and dicing.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Wing: Turkoglu is continually being under/incorrectly utilized. His usage rate is at 18.9%; to put it in perspective, he was at 23% and 24.8% the last two seasons in Orlando. Figure he is getting between 4-6 less touches a game, as well he is being used to do the wrong types of things (should be a playmaker for others, not told to get his own shot off), and we have ourselves a problem. To put this in perspective, Jack is being utilized at 17.3%….yeah. I like this match-up with Marvin Williams for Turk, he wont get abused on defense, and should be able to do what he wants on offense.

The Edge: Raptors

The Big: Bosh vs Smith, I love this match-up. The PF battle will be crucial off the bench with Amir “put me in coach” Johnson battling Joe “I’m still kickin around” Smith on both ends. It’s amazing Joe Smith is playing, and at such a high level. A true pro, and a great pick up for the Hawks IMHO.
The Edge: Even

The Strong: I don’t have any problems with Bargnani right now. He’s doing about what I expected. Sure, I could use some more rebounding and better rotational defense, but f*ck it, the system sucks. Horford does represent some big problems for Bargs though. This guy is relentless on the boards, and lives in the paint. Leave him alone 15ft out, and he can knock those down. Bargs needs to box this guy out, job # 1. I don’t even care if he doesn’t score a lick, keep this guy off the board and in foul trouble, and this game is ours, simple.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Line

The Hawks are a 9 point favourite with an over/under of 211.5

Simulation

Visser’s sims are 13-6 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 107-95 Raptors loss.

Prediction

AltRaps predicts a win. Arsenalist predicts a win. Who am I to disagree? I’m a realist, that’s who I am. Raptors lose, sorry guys.

Come swing by the RR Forums and check out our game thread. You want Twitter? Live Chat? ESPN Daily Dime? We got you son!

It’s interesting; this team is interesting. We have gone through a few pre-season games, 1 of which was an 8-point loss to a Timberwolves team sans Jefferson and Love; and this team doesn’t look like the finished product that would win 50 games and a make it to the second round of the playoffs. The Raptors are reasonably deep, but nothing of real note after the starters (lots of interchangeable pieces where one doesn’t shine brighter then the other). The 2 spot was always the question mark in the starting lineup, but you know what? Frank Zicarelli got it wrong, again – DeRozan’s role on the Raptors, is to start at the 2.

The roster has been set for the opener, with no surprises. There was no one fighting for a roster spot at training camp. Only those fighting for minutes. There is a a distinction. For what it’s worth, the starting lineup is not bad. Calderon is a solid point guard. He conducts the offense; hits jumpers; makes the safe right plays; protects the ball; and he’s butter from the charity stripe. Hedo is a match-up nightmare at the 3. Dude is tall, creative off the hop, gets to the rack, isn’t afraid to take clutch shots; and hits them once in a while. Bosh is elite. Bargnani spreads the floor. has a solid jumper; gets a couple blocks a game; and can take his man off the dribble.

The starters have scoring down. Between the four, you can expect about 65pts a night from them (based on what they did last season). You figure the bench will chip in 20-25 a night, which leaves the starting SG only really needing to come up with about 10pts a night to get us to free pizza.

Defensively, shooting guard is a tough position. You have chase the likes of Ray Allen, Joe Johnson, Monta Ellis, Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, etc, around the court on offense – and make them work defensively. No one has really stepped up to earn that spot: DeRozan has been raw; Wright has been hurt; Weems was playing great but he’s not really a starter; Belinelli is way to inconsistent. So the question then becomes, what is the starting lineup missing?

Defense

It is safe to say that Wright is the best defender of this lot. He came with that pedigree, and he struts around with some attitude (I like the trash talking), but he is not much of a threat to light it up on offense. We saw DeRozan chase folks around screens, block the lane and crash the boards. He may not be as good as Wright, but he has shown a willingness to get dirty in this department, which suits me just fine for a rook.

Slashing

DeRozan, Weems and Belinelli are pretty good at getting to the rim. All three have shown that they are fearless in this department. Weems has been a pleasant surprise this summer, but his contribution is marginally better (if at all) then DeRozan’s. Both DeRozan and Weems got to the rim, been knocked down numerous times, and keep at it. I’d say it is a toss up here.

Athleticism

This is the two man race between DeRozan and Weems. They are both are freakish in this regard: jump the hell out of the gym and are quick up-n-down the court. DeRozan is taller younger, bigger and taller then Weems, with a longer wing span.

I gotta like DeRozan here. He takes it to the rim, he has been working hard, wants to play defense, and Hopla will improve his shot over the course of the season. So what’s the problem? Ahh, you want to ‘hide rookies’. I see. Bury them on the bench and let them shine in due time. I hate this strategy. When you have promise in a young gun, you need to nurture it. I’m not suggestion you play him 30+ minutes a night, but he does a lot of good things to be an after thought on this team.

Sure, starting Wright here is the safe way to go. He doesn’t need the ball on offense, and plays good D (gave Carmelo hell in the playoffs last year). But as much as the Raptors need that sort of production, they need athleticism more. Getting out on the break, filling those lanes, attacking off the bounce, alley-oops…all these things, I haven’t seen Wright do. DeRozan fits this bill.

“What about scoring? Wont DeRozan feel pressure to score as a starter?” Ye he will, but what you aren’t considering is that the offensive load for the SG is MUCH less as a starter then a reserve, on this particular team. As part of the the starting unit, DeRozan’s only needs to give Jose/Hedo another passing option. He just needs to catch the ball on the go and put it down. He doesn’t have to worry about creating his own shot, because the defense will be far too tuned in on the rest of the lot, and take advantage of the holes left by Bargnani and Bosh pulling the bigs further away from the basket as they should be.

As a reserve, DeRozan will not be surrounded with as gifted offensive players as the starters, increasing his burden to do more. He now has to create his own scoring opportunities on top of doing everything else. To me, that isn’t hiding the kid. He now has to worry about carrying the 2nd unit. Talk about throwing him to the wolves.

So let him start. Wright can come off the bench IF Kid Dynamite can’t hold his own offensively. Weems can come in when the Raptors need a spark, and Belinelli can come in when all else fails. It might just take the whole year or more for DeRozan to get it right, but hiding him on the bench and sparing him the trial by fire at the hands of Wade and Kobe only keeps that pacifier in his mouth longer. To me, it’s a disservice. The kid can play, let him at it.

One more day!!!

It’s been a minute, but I’m back. Sadly, not a whole lot changed while I was gone.. The fortunes of this team have remained the same. Regardless of how we got here, the fact of the matter is that this team is worse off right now then when BryCo took over. That’s all I’m going to say (you forgot how I ramble didn’t you?). Whatever, it’s done. Team sucks, we understand, moving on…

To call this season a disappointment would be an understatement of epic proportions. Not because BC claimed it was the most talented team he has assembled in Toronto, but because of the inroads we were making over the last few years:

2005-2006 – The BryCo saga begins – 27-55
2006-2007 – First year of an era – 47-35
2007-2008 – The Horford raped us year – 41-41
2008-2009 – The most talented team on paper year – 32-50 or 33-49

THE SPECTER OF A 50 LOSS SEASON  IS STILL AT HAND

You bet your azz. Is this team better or worse off then when BryCo took over the reigns? I’m just putting it out there, but I have to ask.

It looks like the Bulls have something to be playing for tonight. They are a game out of 5th and if they can win, and Miami loses to Detroit, they can sneak into 5th and face the Hawks in the 1st round, which is the best 1st round match-up for them, IMHO. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Hawks are a better team, but they are missing Childress and Marvin Williams is injured…could be a sleeper situation for Da Bulls.

Also, the Bulls have the added motivation of avenging that thrilling loss back in April in OT. You remember that one, Parker splits a pair of free throws that could clinch the game, Ben Gordon comes back down and pops a jumper in Bosh’s eye to tie it up at the buzzer? Fortunately, Bosh/Bargnani/Marion stepped up to steal back a game after a furious comeback by the Bulls. Twas an exciting game, Arsenalist even put aside his Twit-stalking of @taylorswift13 to curse out Parker then anoint Bargnani as the future.

Your milkshake would bring me to the yard.

The Raptors on the other hand have nothing to play for, but they have a knack of winning when the games don’t mean anything and has actually cost them draft position. Was I the only one who thought it super classy of Bosh to come out and do Colangelo’s job for him on Sunday? Taking it on the chin for the team? This is the guy you don’t want to resign to a max contract? This isn’t a leader? Sure he isn’t an offensive first choice, but the guy is elite. Short of trading him for Roy, Paul, Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Carmelo, Dwight, or Joe Johnson, they wont even come close to good value and the Raptors become the laughing stock of the league and never ever get out of the first round for the foreseeable future. Don’t worry Chris, I still love ya. You piss me off from time-to-time, but you’re the man.

Why am I making such a big deal of this now, with a game to go before the playoffs? It is easy: the Raptors are a game away from 50 losses, and Bosh is the only player on this team who can make sure that doesn’t happen. Simple. We need Bosh to avoid 50 losses as much as we need him to retire a Raptor.

Our cheerleader of the day is Shannon, currently Miss. Illinois. I actually don’t have anything witty to say about her because not only is she beautiful, she is educated (Masters from Depaul), ambitious (ideal job is as an educational advocate traveling the world speaking on the improvement of education) AND seems like that kind of girl that all your buddies secretly pine for, and get all ‘school-girly & giggly” when she’s around. Still, the dirty things I would do to you. If you are reading this, hit me on twitter, @rapsfan, and we can make some arrangements to hook up, I’ll be in Chicago early May, could be magical…

Injuries

Raptors – who cares
Bulls – who cares

What the Raptors Will Have to do to Avoid 50 Losses

Bargnani – Keep Noah away from the rim, if nothing else.

Bosh – Keep doing what you do.

Calderon – Push the ball and look for Marion on the break.

Marion – 20/15.

Parker – Hit your flippin free throws.

Prediction

It was a truly disappointing season, but Bosh will send us into the summer with less of a sour taste in our mouths (until the shiznak hits the fan as soon as the playoffs are over and LeBron is holding that trophy). Raptors by 6.

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It was my pleasure talking with y’all this season.