There’s losing a tough, competitive game that came down to the wire; there’s losing a nasty one to a better team where you weren’t really expected to make any noise; then there’s that once a year performance that would cost a coach his job. Clearly Casey is in no danger of losing his job, and shouldn’t be, but if Triano was still around, this would have been the nail in his coffin.

Last night was the result of a perfect storm that was bound to happen. Not only to the Raptors, but we will see a lot of fugly results like this across the league:

Injuries It says a lot about the state of your team when missing Jerryd Bayless in the lineup is cause for concern. Look, he’s not the worse thing that has ever happened to the Raptors, but at least he gives Calderon some rest (70 minutes in two nights, and he didn’t play the entire 4th quarter), and is aggressive off the bounce when he has the ball in his hands. It would also be nice to have Kleiza (again, I only weep for myself that I’m hoping Bayless AND Kleiza get back in action asap) force both Butler and Johnson into playing a combined 15-18 minutes a night.

Scheduling & Player Management The Raptors have played five games in the last seven nights, with little time for rest, and more importantly, practice. It’s tough to really work on things when you’re either on a plane, at the airport or sleeping. Top that off with heading into the 2nd night of a back-to-back, and things don’t look good considering the Raptors aren’t the most fit bunch. What made things even worse was Bargnani and Calderon played 45 and 41 (DeRozan played 38, but that shouldn’t be as big an issue) minutes respectively the night before against the  Wolves. I questioned Casey for riding those two for so long, but at least they got the win out of it.

Scoring The Raptors couldn’t put the ball through the hoop; it was tough to watch.

Now to the game…

The game started ugly for both teams; it took two and a half minutes and a combined five shots before Bargnani put the ball on the floor and got things rolling. The key during that two-minute stretch of ass was that the Wizards were missing off the bounce and in the paint, and the Raptors were clanking jumpers. This set the tone for the entire night where the Wizards were just monsters in the paint, scoring 38 of 46 points in the paint in the 1st half. That’s a big deal since it isn’t like the Wizards have a dominant front court that had it’s way with our boys. They attacked off the dribble with Wall, Young and Crawford taking their man, and making some difficult shots.

Aside from Calderon getting his second wind a minute into the game (it was downhill after the first quarter for the guy), three things stood out for me in the quarter: offensive rebounding and defense kept the Raptors in the game early; the Wizards had a grand total of 2 assists in the quarter; and DeRozan wasn’t actually playing any basketball. Given that the Raptors had just played the Wolves the night before, I expected some tired-lazy shots, but it was nice to see the defense do its job. The Wizards scored because their guys took the game into their hands and instead of running plays, made super aggressive moves off the bounce to get a shot off. This made me me happy heading into the second because when you control the boards, and are forcing a team to score off of broken plays and zero ball-movement, good things will happen.

I was wrong, the 2nd quarter was a warm, tightly curled pile of doo-doo (I actually used the word doo-doo six times in my game notes). If I could take back 40 minutes of my life, it was witnessing the 2nd and 3rd quarters of this game. Yes the Raptors were tired, but the worst team in the NBA managed to set the pace of the game, and capitalize. Eighteen of the Wizards first 20 points were transition buckets in the paint.

There was also a two-fold problem of turning the ball over (9 turnovers in the quarter), and when they managed to protect it, scoring the bloody thing.  DeRozan, Butler and Johnson were a combined 1-15 from the floor in the 1st half. To compound things, each and every shot they took, and missed, was early in the clock and obviously forced. In all fairness, DeRozan isn’t getting the ball in his sweet spot: catching the ball after curling off the high screen. He’s getting the ball on the wing, with no weak-side action. Unfortunately, his shot isn’t there quite yet. Butler and Johnson are just brutal; makes me miss watching Mike James go 1-on-4 for a bucket five-times a night.

The third was more of the same, and Casey threw in the towel in the 4th, trying to conserve some energy for tonight’s affair against the Kings.

After turning in an ugly effort against a lesser squad, I’m still happy with how the season is going. The reality is that the Raptors should have won this game and lost to the Knicks – net change is zero. Regardless of the outcome, some really good things happened last night:

• The Raptors defense was pretty decent; a 93 point performance where the starters didn’t play the entire 4th quarter isn’t something to hang your head low on. The Raptors were rotating on defense fairly well, but you have to give the Wizards some credit for hitting shots with next to no ball movement until the second half of the second quarter
• Bargnani weathered through his fatigue and managed 22 points on 16 shots in 29 minutes
• The Raptors out-rebounded the Wizards 44-38, with their offensive rebounding keeping them in the game, 14
• The zone defense worked until it didn’t, and by didn’t, I mean they didn’t use it enough. Still, it’s nice that they can throw out different looks that are effective

I really hate to say it, but the Wizards were due for a win, and the gods conspired to set the stage for them to capitalize. It’s an easy one to put behind you and prepare for the Kings at home.

If you don’t know, watching the game while keeping track of things on Twitter makes things a bit more interesting. The highlight for me last night was this exchange with some random dude (start at the bottom and read up the thread):

Photo Credit: Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images

It’s weird but the loss in Miami had a satisfying flavor to it. It’s difficult for a team to go 2-0 on the Florida swing and on the rare occasion you actually pull it off, they’ll talk about you on NBA TV for days. The Jazz did it last week and it has supposedly turned their season around. The swing might have done the same for the Raptors, who represented themselves well on their travels. An impressive win in Orlando was followed by going toe-to-toe with the Heat who got enough star-calls to see them through. Not to say that the Heat weren’t deserving of the win, just stating that the refs don’t need to call ticky-tack fouls to make sure they do. And not sure where I heard this, but somebody referred to Miami’s “Big Three” as “One and a bit” which brought a smile to this blogger’s face.

The little roadtrip also confirmed things we suspected, Arse’s man Julian Wright made a case for more minutes and Joey Dorsey showed that he can pull the boards down with the best of them. Kleiza’s poor season has been magnified by Wright’s performances, and it’s easy to see the balance that Wright’s defense brings to the lineup. Wright’s defense was to be expected, his creativity on the drive wasn’t. Wright’s demonstrated some good basketball IQ with his decision-making, and even though he shot poorly against Miami, they were shots that were presented to him and if the Raptors had any chance at that game, somebody like him had to make them. When Kleiza does return, he should have to work for his minutes and nothing should be handed to him.

Tonight it’s the Wizards who fall into the category of teams we are “supposed to beat”. I’ll subscribe to that belief because John Wall is injured and he would have been the most talented player on the floor (again!), who also happens to be a point guard which happens to be the position we get torched at. Wall is averaging close to an impressive 19 points and 10 assists a game, but his shooting has been very mediocre at 43.9% (second on the team in attempts behind Blatche). His 2-6 Wizards haven’t taken advantage of playing the third easiest schedule in the league, and the problem has surprisingly been offense – they’re scoring a league-worst 99.1 points per 100 possessions. The shot distribution seems to be quite wonky as well with four guys (Blatche, Arenas, Wall and Thornton) dominating the ball. The Wizards look to be a classic case of four guys trying to get theirs.

The games in Washington have had a couple great finishes of late. There’s the Mo Pete shot with the guy yelling Canada Sucks in the background, and there’s also the Not Possible! call made possible by Anthony Parker. It’s hard to believe this, but Chris Bosh has actually delivered in the clutch on occasion, the last time it happened was in Washington.

Injuries

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Day-to-day
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Day-to-day

Washington
Andray Blatche – Knee, Will play
Yi Jianlin – Bruised Knee, Will Play
Update: John Wall – walking around on crutches, doubtful

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Wall
This is one of the games I had circled on my calendar; John Wall’s in town. You get a certain amount of hype with every new rookie coming into the league, but this one hit the ground running. I know I had my doubts; first of all he did play in Kentucky right? Wall hit the ground running, and probably the best young point guard to come out of college in a very hard time based on his early performance. He does everything: scores, passes (5th in the NBA), rebounds, plays defense (1st in steals in the NBA). Yea, it’s going to be one of those games tonight. Notice anything about his shot chart?

The kid is either scoring from the paint, or from the perimeter; no mid-range game. If I’m picking my poison tonight, it’s going to give him every shot he wants, and protect the paint. He is quick enough, and sees the floor well enough that he can be devastating off the bounce. Not sure how to keep him out of the paint thought, that’s for Triano & Co to figure out. I wont even mention Arenas comes off the bench at the point, the guy had 30pts against the Bulls on the weekend with 7 treys. There’s really no situation where the Raptors have an advantage at the point tonight, we gotta take our lumps here, keep the damage to a minimum and win match-ups at the other positions.
Edge: Wall

SG – DeRozan vs Hinrich
The good news is that DeRozan will be able to flex his athleticism tonight; the bad news, Hinrich plays fundamental. DeRozan is coming off a ridiculous weekend where he averaged 23.5pts 6.5rebs 2.5ast against some pretty solid competition. Hinrich is playing out of position in Washington (Wall had the keys to kingdom handed to him), but is still contributing at a pretty solid clip. He’s knocking down shots, moving the ball around, and playing some disruptive defense alongside Wall with those long-monkey arms of his. There’s no reason DeRozan shouldn’t attack off the dribble like he has been of late. Hinrich is a solid shooter, and if DeRozan runs over to double, he will stick jumper after jumper; he’s done it to the Raptors for years now. Hopefully the defense rotates properly, and no one gets hit with a perfect John Wall pass for an open J tonight.

Edge: DeRozan

SF – Weems vs Thornton
Raise your hand if you think Weems has earned the starting gig at small forward? The guy has really grown on me the last couple weeks, mostly because he is playing a different kind of game, by not forcing shots when he gets the ball and letting the game come to him. Thornton is a a solid scorer who has a pretty good jumper, and finishes nicely at the rim.

He doesn’t move the ball around well and makes pretty rough decisions with the ball. Sonny can have a solid night if he takes it to him off, since Al plays pretty rough defense. This is a pretty good match-up for Sonny since he’s always in attack mode, and there’s nothing Thornton can do about it. Something to note, Thornton missed the last game with a stomach ailment, and may not play tonight, if this is the case, the Wizards could start a 3-guard combo of Wall, Arenas and Hinrich, which I don’t really want to see. There’s a great deal of play making and shooting in that lot.
Edge: Weems

PF – Evans vs Blatche
Evans missed the last game against the Heat with the flu, and needs to be fully back to contend with Blatche (and McGee when Bargnani loses focus). If Evans isn’t 100%, I actually like Amir a lot better for this match-up since he can match Blatche pound-for-pound in length and athleticism, and make Andray play on both ends of the floor. Regardless, Blatch needs to be taken seriously since he’s in the early goings of a career year. The guy has improved every year since he got into the league, and is a real force right now. The Raptors are much deeper at forward than Washington, and after their starters, they can only trot out Yi Jianlin, and a couple other no-names that I’m sure we can handle. The key will be to take it to Blatche early, and force him to swing his arms around some and pick up some fouls.

He’s a pretty sweet shooting big man, who can step outside and pull Evans with him, taking him off the defensive glass. This is a big area of concern for me, since Evans (and Amir) protect take protecting our own glass very seriously. I like Evans to bang around with him, I like Amir to keep the intensity going. I like this match-up a lot for sheer entertainment, and the different looks we can throw opposing power forwards through the game.
Edge: Even

C – Bargnani vs McGee
The Wizards starting court is a big heap of long athletic dudes. Blatche lives in the paint, which is where is where Bargnani is most effective in defending. I worry that Wall rip by the defenders and force Bargnani to half-commit on rotating over, and allow some easy scores, but I digress…

Offensively, Bargnani should get lots of open looks since Blatche will have trouble keeping up with him on the perimeter, however, playing in the post may not be the best strategy since Blatche is so long and challenges so many shots in the blocks.
Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Play Big
The Raptors have a deeper front court, and can get the Wizard in trouble if Blatche and McGee get into some foul trouble. Triano can throw wave-after-wave of big man combinations until he finds a combination that keeps this lot locked down. The Wizards are the worst rebounding team in the league, do I have to spell this out? Attack the paint, crash the boards, and we should win this aspect of the game handedly.

Keep Wall Out of The Bloody Paint
Give the guy room and force him to put the team on his back and shoot his way to a win. Once he gets going off the dribble, he has the ability to hit the open guy in the right spots. Wall is prone to turnovers, so forcing him into a double on the wings (keep him out of the paint) could force him to make some bad decisions.

Don’t Give Arenas a Reason to Smile
The guy isn’t a happy camper. Sure he’s playing well since coming back from his suspension, but he’s not smiling. If the game isn’t fun for him, his motivations might not be there. I know this sounds stupid, but folks play better when they are having a good time.

No Need to Double Anyone
Force Wall into a double, but don’t send someone running at him. Let Evans/Johnson play Blatche straight up, force him to turn into a double team, but don’t send anyone running at him. I don’t want to see the Wizards rotate the ball until one of them is in a good spot to take a shot; they share the ball well (15th in the league), but the damage can be minimized if they get into a pass-and-pop situation.

The Line

No odds have been registered for this game, so it’s a toss up at this point if you’re a betting person. Considering the Raptors are on the road, this looks favourably on them to eke out a win tonight. I’m feeling pretty good about this considering how we’ve been playing of late. I do have a feeling that Wall will wreak havoc tonight though, as long as he’s not make others better around him, we should be fine.

Crawl. Walk. Run. Stumble. Fall. Get up….?

This is where we are with this squad right now. Every single playoff team is running into the post-season except the Raptors, who have the luxury of stumbling in because the Bulls are absolutely brutalized by injury. 14 games left in the season, and there is major talk about shaking up the lineup in an attempt to salvage what is left of this season. So much for putting in a solid system during training camp.

I do have to give Triano some credit since he is still working hard at making things right. Unfortunately for the rest of us, he’s learning on the job and doesn’t have the juice to command respect/obedience from the players; otherwise Bargnani and Turkoglu would probably be coming off the bench, or playing you know: good; and we would hve something resembling perimeter defense.

The Raptors are the only playoff team to be playing under .700 over the last 10 games. In fact, thanks to a grind-em-out win against the Nets, the Raptors are .300. Speaking of that game, it was seriously the most frustrating one I’ve seen all season. By this point of the year, the Raptors should have a set 8-9 man rotation, and rolling along; especially against a team that is challenging to be the worst one in NBA history.

The Timberwolves are just going through the motions at this point, hoping to win the draft lottery and steal Wall from between Jerseys fingers. No one expected much from them, and they didn’t disappoint, but they have a great young core that will only improve when they trade Rubio for some talent that wants to play there.

The last time these two teams played, Toronto was at the beginning of their resurgence, and ground out a win at home that saw them unveil their Huskies jerseys that many of us prefer.

Jefferson was kept in check by Bargnani and Bosh offensively, but he still managed 12 rebounds. Love was a beast though, with 18pts 7rebs coming off the bench while working himself back into the rotation after being injured for the early part of the season.

The Wolves are a great rebounding team; 43.5/game which is good for 4th in the league. That is really my only concern for tonight since they don’t score very well and are a worse defensive team than the Raps. Limit their rebounds, don’t switch on the pick-n-roll, and this game will be over in th third. That’s all I really have to say.