I’ve always hated winning and losing in bunches; change needs to be balanced with consistency. Just like that, the team is 4-9 with 8 of the next 10 coming on the road. This team needs Bargnani and Bayless back at full capacity as soon as possible before it gets offensively ugly.

Bret Lagree from Hoopinion gave me his thoughts on a couple questions I had:

After that solid playoff run, and the hot start to the year, does losing Horford write-off the rest of the year; even if he gets back for the playoffs? Also, what’s the plan now, Zaza/trade?
Even without Horford, the Hawks should make the playoffs. His absence definitely diminishes the team’s chances of advancing in the post-season, but the team’s upside with Horford was the probably the second-round, yet again, anyway. His injury would have a had greater impact for a more ambitious, less risk-averse team.

I expect Zaza Pachulia will start (except when the Hawks play the Magic) and primarily split time at center with the undersized Ivan Johnson. Josh Smith might get some time as a nominal five in small lineups. It might work since Marvin Williams and Tracy McGrady (when healthy) are good rebounders for small forwards. If there’s a trade to be made, say Kirk Hinrich for a big man, the Hawks will surely consider it, but they might just as well off keeping Hinrich and doubling-down on perimeter defense.

McGrady’s renaissance has been a pleasant surprise after being brought in to replace some of the lost production from Crawford’s departure. He’s injured now, but can you see him being an important contributor to a team that can make deep playoff appearances?
McGrady was great for most of the first seven games but he’s already missed or been unable to contribute in six straight games since then. The Hawks can’t count on him every night, but he’s a difference-maker when healthy. They should do everything possible to have him available for the playoffs, regular season results be damned.

Are you guys regretting giving Joe Johnson that contract? Seems to me $20m should be able to buy you more than 18pts 4reb 4ast 16PER; is he an amnesty candidate if the Hawks aren’t contenders by next season?
Unfortunately, the only people who didn’t feel anticipatory regret for the Joe Johnson contract were those with the power to hand it to him. The organization has always overrated him on both ends of the floor and compounded that by assuming he’s not going to age. On the other hand, the amount the team has invested in Johnson ($75 million contract, $124 million contract, two first-round picks, Boris Diaw) has, at times, obscured that he’s been a pretty good player with the Hawks, even if he’ll do well to be an above-average player over the length of his current contract.

Injuries

Toronto
Aaron Gray
Jerryd Bayless
James Johnson
Andrea Bargnani

Atlanta
Al Horford
Tracy McGrady
Marvin Williams

Match-ups

Point Guard
You might be able to excuse Calderon’s performance against Rose all things considered. At least he somehow managed 8 assists. The Hawks don’t have the firepower at the point the Bulls do, but they are fairly deep; Kirk Hinrich is their 4th string quarterback. There is nothing about Jeff Teague, Jannero Pargo, some guy named Donald Sloan and Hinrich can do to scare me, but the Raptors are thin at the one. That said, the Hawks are great at sharing the ball, even with Josh Smith in the lineup, and that starts with the point.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Joe Johnson is one of my man-crushes in the league, and even though he’s not producing anywhere close to what a $20m/year guy should be producing, he’s heads and shoulders better than DeRozan. He’s one of those guys who’s good at everything really. He defends, scores from all over the floor, rebounds, shares the ball and plays heavy minutes. To make matters worse for DeMar, who didn’t get to the foul line against the Bulls on Saturday, is that JJ wont be bailing him out with cheap fouls, since he has a low foul rate.
Edge: Atl

Small Forward
With Kleiza in the lineup, and if guys play within themselves, there’s no reason why the Raptors can’t be ok-to-good at the small forward. It all comes down to Butler and Johnson listening to me and not shooting the ball just because they have the room to let loose. The Hawks are great at the 3 either, but they are fairly deep with veteran savvy. Stackhouse is still alive and reasonably useful, while Radmanovic has found a home…doesn’t matter really…
Edge: Even

Power Forward
Looks like Bargnani is still out, which basically writes the game off. I find myself hoping the Raptors go small ball, and give Kleiza and Johnson (can’t believe I’m saying this) the bulk of the minutes at the four if Andrea can’t go. Davis needs Anthony Robbins or something…not sure, but what I do know is that Josh Smith will make him humble if he doesn’t come correct.
Edge: Atl

Center
The only exciting aspect of this match-up is being able to say Zaza with some flare. Amir/Magloire can probably keep their heads up in this one, but it doesn’t matter. The Raptors caught a break with Horford going down for 3-4 months with an injury, otherwise this would have gotten ugly, fast.
Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

• Get to the foul line; as a team on Saturday against the Bulls, the Raptors went to the foul line seven times (made 1 of them); no wonder they were only able to muster 64 points. The Hawks have a few good defenders, so you have to get as many easy/cheap points as possible
• Perimeter defense; the Hawks like to throw the ball around and stick jumpers. It kills them in the playoffs, but wins them games in the regular season. The Raptors have done a great job of giving teams nice looks from the perimeter; seems like a match made in heaven. need to tighten things up
• Let Josh Smith shoot as much as he wants

The Line

The Hawks are at home and haven’t lost to the Raptors in over two years; there’s a reason they are 11 point favourites.

The Raptors are looking to extend their home winning streak to 2 tonight against the Hawks. Just looking ahead, after tonight’s game, the Raptors have the Pistons at home before heading out on the road for a 5 game skid that will see them play Washington, New Orleans, San Antonio, Orland and the Heat. Based on past performances, this could be the start of a 7 game skid, but 2-5 seems more reasonable.

Add in the potential Melo trade involving the Nets and Pistons, and the stage is set for the Raptors descent into the bottom five of the league, which Franchise from Raptors HQ claims wouldn’t be a bad thing. I’m not one for tanking, but they might not need too if this trade goes through (the Nets/Pistons will win more games with upgraded rosters, and clarity of roles in the Pistons case).

The last time these guys played, the Hawks rather easily handed the Raptors a loss by moving the ball around masterfully and attacking in the paint with their bigs. With the Hawks playing much better since and having refined their offensive sets, which rely much less on iso-plays, things could be much worse for the short-handed-injury-plagued Raptors. Hopefully memories of an embarrassing 11-point 3rd quarter will fuel the fire for retribution.

I briefly spoke to Bret Lagree from Hoopinion about the Hawks and tonights game:

From what I’ve seen/heard, seems like this team likes to play together and are very supportive of one-another. What’s been the driving force of the camaraderie, and who’s the glue guy?
Al Horford is an extremely efficient offensive player and essential to the team defensive concept. The Hawks are at their best when Joe Johnson and/or Jamal Crawford are making jump shots but Horford is the constant, two-way presence.

How do you feel about the trade rumour of Jose Calderon + a big to the Hawks + a big? Who would be included from Atlanta’s side, and who would you want in return?
I can’t see the Hawks exacerbating their cap hell, burying Jeff Teague deeper, and failing to improve their perimeter defense in one fell swoop by acquiring Calderon. That might just be wishful thinking on my part.

Josh Smith seems fully capable of putting up 20/10 consistently, what’s been keeping him from doing that?
A desire to shoot jump shots, the team’s willingness to indulge that, and a constant need for Smith to challenge opponents’ field goal attempts as a help defender.

19pts 4rebs 5ast wasn’t exactly what the powers that be had in mind when they handed Joe Johnson that massive contract. It makes it hard to offer Crawford a reasonable contract to keep him as the spark-plug off the bench. What’s going to happen to him?
Given that Johnson missed two weeks, played hurt (and had it affect his production) much of the season, and the Hawks are just one game off last season’s pace, its hard to say that not signing him would have hurt the Hawks seriously in the short term and it obviously would have increased their cap flexibility in the future.

With Jamal Crawford (younger, can score, but doesn’t have the all around game) available, how badly would it have hurt the Hawks if they didn’t resign him, or pulled off a trade (possibly to the Knicks) with him as a principle?
I think there’s a decent chance he comes back to the Hawks on a multi-year deal for much less money per season. There isn’t a huge market for him and the Hawks love to re-sign their free agents. I think it’s better than 50-50 that they bring back Damien Wilkins and Jason Collins next season, too.

The Hawks have done very well against the Raptors, handing them some of the toughest losses they’ve endured over the last couple of season. What will be strategy heading into the game tonight?
If the Hawks simply run their offense, they can outscore the Raptors at least 9 times out of 10. I expect the Hawks to attack whatever match-up advantage they have on a given possession, either scoring quickly or swinging the ball around the perimeter for an open jump shot. It’ll be the good kind of isolation basketball.

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out
Sonny Weems – Day to day
Jose Calderon – Day to day
Jerry Bayless – Day to day

Atlanta
The whole team is healthy

Match-ups

Point Guard
Not sure that Bibby is an upgrade over Jose on perimeter defense, but I’ll digress. What we can agree is that Bibby has always seemed to get up to play against the Raptors; he hasn’t been lighting it up like he used too, but he did go 3-4 from beyond the arc the last time these cats played against each other. On the season, he’s shooting 49.1% from behind the arc, that’s good for second in the league and a career high. Bibby is still moving the ball around rather well, leading the Hawks to 5th in the league in assists. Their ball movement scares me, as the Raptors haven’t been the best at defensive rotations and closing out on shooters.

With the Raptors giving up so many good looks from the perimeter lately, Bibby can follow up his solid play against the Pacers (4-6 from beyond the arc) after 3 fairly brutal games in a row. Defending Bibby shouldn’t be so difficult: don’t leave him to help, and force him to put it on the floor. He’s basically there to shoot the ball and swing it to the open man; take that away and he’s got nothing. Calderon on the other hand…what more can we expect from him? He doesn’t practice between games because his feet are mangled, but has been able to increase his points and assists every month since the start of the season. You have to figure the foot injury is going to get worse, so the Raptors might be better served to sit him against teams like the Hawks where a win is a far-far-gone conclusion.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
Call it what you want, but you can’t deny that DeRozan’s improvement couldn’t have come at a better time. Not sure what the turning point was, but we know that since putting up a lame 10pt performance in a loss to the Pistons on December 22nd, DeRozan has averaged 22.1pts since. We’re going to need every single one of those points tonight against the 8th ranked defense in the league.

A testament to this Hawks team is how quietly they were able to weather the storm of Joe Johnson’s injury, going 5-4 through the stretch while not conceding much ground against the Magic for 4th in the East (and actually beating the Magic 80-74 during his absence). Makes it much easier when you have a motivated Jamal Crawford, the owner of something in the vicinity of 31 4-point plays, who can carry the scoring load quite nicely and is in a contract year.

While Johnson has played well, but never really abused the Raptors over the years, Crawford has drank our milkshake every time he’s played us dating back to the Chicago years. Tempting Crawford to drive, and forcing him into a help defender, is the only chance of slowing him down. Much like DeRozan, the guy is a one-trick pony who’s major contribution is scoring. Unlike DeRozan (up until recently at least), his contribution is much more devastating. Johnson on the other hand contributes across the board and poses a much bigger problem if allowed to operate freely.

Like Bret said, the Hawks will be able to run their offense and sofa on the Raptors 9 times out of 10, and unless either/both these guys has an off game, i got nothing to offer in terms of a ours of action; hopefully DeRozan drops 31 and gets the line in 8-10 attempt range if he has any designs on countering these two.
Edge: Atlanta

Small Forward
Josh Smith’s scoring and rebounding has been impacted by his need to play help defense and block shots; if only we were so lucky as Raptor fans. Sure he shoots too much for a man of his ability, but he does so much else, you can almost forgive him.

This is where things get quite interesting in terms of match-ups and such. The Hawks have Josh Smith at the 3, and can quite easily shift him over to the 4 at will. He’s bigger, stronger, faster, taller than Kleiza, and with Amir among the walking wounded, can really affect both match-ups in Atlanta’s favour.

The size advantage Kleiza’s been enjoying on the offensive glass won’t be there tonight with the Hawks front court, who rebound very well on the defensive glass. Best bet will be to get hot from the perimeter and keep Josh out of the paint/lane to hopefully free up space for DeRozan and Bargnani to operate. I can live with Josh scoring on jumpers rather than getting into the lane and off the glass; this screams for someone of Julian Wright’s ability and mind-set…
Edge: Atlanta

Power Forward
The toll that Amir Johnson’s body has been put through since Reggie’s gone down has been staggering. He’s basically battling in the paint, on both ends of the floor, alone. Better yet, he’s been doing it recently with noticeable pain. Ed Davis, while improving, isn’t ready for major minutes yet, but is doing what he can. Frankly, he’s been doing a good job considering. I imagine we can expect more of the same tonight against Horford; a guy I would trade Bargnani for in a second. Not hating, just that I prefer well rounded players.

If Jason Collins (yes, he’s still in the league) can’t cover Bargnani, expect a switch with Horford and Collins. Actually, the best hope the Raptors have match-up wise is shifting Horford to 5, Smith to 4 and playing Maurice Evans or Marvin Williams at the 3 where Kleiza can flex his stuff a bit more.
Edge: Atlanta

Center
For some reason, Collins has seen a resurgence of sorts with the  Hawks and is getting some play. Can’t imagine why considering he’s mostly 6 fouls to throw at somebody. Regardless, I think we can all agree that Bargnani will abuse him if he’s covering the Italian. If Horford shifts over, we can also agree that Bargnani has the size/strength/speed to battle Al, but the match-up will ultimately be decided by Bargnani’s ability to battle on the boards and do the dirty work. Horford will be out of his comfort zone on defense coming out so far to defend Andrea, that I kind of like both match-ups considering how sweet he’s shooting the ball lately. It’s going to take a big night by Andrea if the Raptors hope to stay competitive and be in a position to steal one at home.
Edge: Toronto

The Line

The gamblers have the Hawks as 4.5 point favourites with an over/under of 205.5. This game has all the makings of a game that can get out of hand quickly, especially with the Raptors so banged up. My concerns are really on the Raptors ability to create quality scoring opportunities for themselves. While the Hawks are an athletic bunch, I like the Raptors chances in a faster tempo game. Since the Hawks are 26th in the league in pace, going all helter-skelter could keep the Hawks from getting into sets and sharing the ball more efficiently.

Today’s game has the potential to be a rough one for the Raptors. You remember them right? They’ve hurt us like that a couple times, wasn’t just a one-time thing.

I checked in with Bret LaGree from Hoopinion about the Hawks and today’s matchup:

It seems as though all the Hawks wins have come against teams that are not in playoff contention, and all their losses against teams who are playoff calibre; how good is this team really?
I think they’re the mid- to high-40s win team everybody expected. They didn’t do anything to address their weaknesses in the off-season so the degree of improvement or regression from last season to this would be down to who improved and who got worse. Quite predictably, Jamal Crawford got worse and Al Horford got better. The organization clearly hoped that Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson wouldn’t get any worse and that hasn’t been the case so far. Of those they hoped would improve, Marvin Williams has been hurt, Jeff Teague has either not received or not earned a lot of minutes (and it’s a fair question as to which is the case), and Josh Smith’s been allowed to shoot a lot of jump shots, which has hurt the team even though he’s possibly improved in that respect.

Joe Johnson signed the biggest contract of the summer, and his production has dropped. His usage rates seems about the same, but his percentages are down. How much of this is an injury issue, and how much is this a matter of Joe getting older?
Some of it’s the injury to his left hand, some of it’s him getting older, and some of it’s a cold streak. I’m as big a critic of his contract as anybody (In fact, I argued for trading Johnson and building around Smith and Horford as early as the Summer of 2008) but he didn’t just become a 28% three-point shooter overnight.

It was a bad deal because he was never a player to build around and even the most rational, yet optimistic, Hawks fans could only seriously argue he’d remain as good as he’s been for two of the six years of the contract. For or against the deal, we knew it would a millstone around the franchise’s neck at some point but even I didn’t suspect it would be apparent so soon.

I heard some rumblings that Josh Smith would need to be moved because of salary cap issues. In my opinion, you can’t come close to replacing what he does on the court at the salary he’s being pad, can you shed some light on this?
The Josh Smith trade rumors are completely made up by NBA generalists though, to be fair, they are the product of rational, deductive thought:

1. The Hawks are in an untenable salary cap situation through 2013-14 if they want to improve the team.
2. Al Horford is the team’s best player.
3. If they build around Horford, Josh Smith is the only other player on the roster with any trade value.

Ergo, the Hawks will have to trade Josh Smith.

They won’t and they shouldn’t. That doesn’t mean they’ll do what they should (focus on the draft especially buying second-round picks, scour the D-League for cheap bench players with upside, bring in NBA-ready players from Europe) any more than they did what the should have done with Joe Johnson this Summer. They’ll probably muddle along as a slightly above .500 team on the strength of Smith of Horford and the motley (and expensive) crew surrounding them.

Whats the ceiling for this team as currently constructed; they are basically the same team that fell apart in the playoffs? Do we see Jamal Crawford and/or Marvin Williams get traded to upgrade the point?
Last Summer, Jamal Crawford’s trade value was Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton’s expiring contract. With the uncertainty of the CBA plausibly diminishing the value of expiring deals and Atlanta’s lack of depth (and their draft history should they only be able to get a pick for him), the Hawks are probably better off keeping Crawford all season. Still, if a team gets desperate around the trade deadline, they’ll certainly remain open to offers.

Marvin Williams remains an enigma. He’s the only true small forward on the roster (seriously, I have envious thoughts of Julian Wright. Speaking of which, why can’t someone get at least Lou Amundson’s career out of him?) and thus has outsized defensive value for the team yet he’s horribly overpaid for what the team asks of him offensively and there’s no real reason to believe he’s capable of taking on a larger offensive role. He’s clearly not capable of demanding a larger offensive role but that’s largely due to him being a ridiculously and famously nice guy which itself probably tempers the criticism he might receive. Whatever the truth might be, I doubt there’s much of a market for his services.

How do the Hawks match-up with the Raptors? What will be the strategy coming into this game?
The Hawks have long benefited from playing teams that push the tempo because, though the Hawks are at their best in transition, neither of their starting guards look to push the ball up the floor consistently. And they’re better against bad defensive teams. That’s true for everyone but a jump shooting team (which they remain despite Larry Drew’s installation of a motion/flex offense) tends to be both more volatile in their results and more dependent on the opposing defense for the quality of those results.

That the Raptors are the league’s best offensive rebounding team could really trouble the Hawks. Most of the time, they leave defensive rebounding to Smith and Horford (if the second unit’s on the floor, they leave it to Zaza Pachulia), a tendency that’s been aggravated by Marvin Williams playing through a knee injury. The rest of the Hawks gave a concerted and effective effort to rebound Washington’s missed shots on Thanksgiving night but I’ll be more convinced that’s a permanent change when the Hawks aren’t playing a team on the road, on a holiday, and reduced to playing three guards all night.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Ed Davis – Out

Atlanta
NA

Match-ups

Point Guards
Is it me, or does it seem Bibby’s been in the league much younger than he has? I also seem to think he’s lik 36…regardless, he’s still here, and not playing so bad. He can still shoot 50%FG 51%3FG, but that’s about it. Teague on the other hand can’t shoot the 3 as well, but is much better off the dribble. He likes to get to the rack, so will be attacking every chance he gets. Neither of them can defend worth a lick, so obviously…

Calderon’s been playing solid since Jack got the boot traded, averaging 14pts 12ast over the last two games. He seems to be hustling a bit more on defense, but that doesn’t mean he’s improve his defense. I fear Bibby getting open look-after-look all night, especially with the attention Smith and Horford will be getting around the basket.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
I don’t have a good feeling about this positional match-up tonight. The Hawks come with a one-two of Johnson and Crawford, both of whom have beat on us over the years (Crawford especially). DeRozan has been playing terribly crappy awful over the last 5 games, averaging up a meager 7.6pts 2.4rebs 2.4ast. Barbosa’s been doing a great job of scoring and leading the second unit off the bench, but he’s still needs DeRozan to carry his load, or it’s really all-for-naught. Meh…
Edge: Hawks

Small Forward
What a bust Marvin Williams has been since he got drafted, and going ahead of Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Raymond Felton; all point guards who the Hawks have been desperate for-forever. The kid is long, athletic and only 24 so there is some hope he can improve (maybe a change of scenery will do him well). What he does a good job of is defending the wing, so Weems and Kleiza will have to work a bit harder than they normally do to get their shot off. Williams has a tendency to disappear during games, which Weems and Kleiza can exploit if he hit the ground running. I gotta work Peja into this somehow, but he doesn’t give us anything but scoring, but at least I worked him into this
Edge: Toronto

Power Forward
The season seriously flashed before my eyes when Reggie went down. The combination of Reggie and Amir were able to compensate for Bargnani’s lack of rebounding. Now with Dorsey (I guess it will be Dorsey) coming in as the second PF off the bench…I don’t see good things, especially if Amir regresses to his fouling ways forcing Dorsey to play a bigger role than he should. Smith likes to shoot, but he’s not very good at it, so giving him the space to launch a couple jumpers would be a good strategy here. In transition, Smith has the ability to get back on defense and swat shot attempts into the 5th row, but challenging him in the paint is important.
Edge: Hawks

Center
Bargnani needs to rebound tonight; there’s no two ways about it; the 5.6 boards he’s been averaging over the last 5 games wont cut it, not with Reggie out. Al Horford is a champ. The guy plays a great all around game, and can be dangerous if left un-checked when he’s on offense. The Hawks wont need to switch up defensively to cover Bargnani on the perimeter since both Horford and Smith have the ability to get out on Bargnani. This match-up basically comes down to rebounding. With Reggie out, BARGNANI HAS TO TAKE REBOUNDING VERY SERIOUSLY FROM NOW ON. That’s all there is to it.
Edge: Even

Gotta cut this short, but the Raptors need to do a few things tonight:

• Communicate on defense; the Hawks are 3rd in assists and move the ball around like angels. The Raptors need to be vocal on defense, and play aggressively on the perimeter. Can’t let them throw passes around easily.
• Full team effort on rebounding; with Reggie out, there’s going to be a lot of rebounds up for grabs. I have zero faith in Bargnani’s ability to rebound, so it will be up to everyone else to make up for his transgressions.
• Bounce back from Friday; the Celtics didn’t pound the Raptors like I thought they would which spoke to the Raptors resiliency. Need some more of that against a Hawks team that isn’t as good as they might appear to be.

The gamblers have the Raptors as 1.5 point favourites, at home, meaning this game is pretty much anyones match. It’s going to take a full 48, but I think the Raptors can pull this off.

So with a 1:21 left in the Bulls/Cavs game, Noah hits the go ahead basket, and neither side is able to score for the rest of the game; Bulls win and draw even (in win/loss) to the Raptors. They’re still 9th in the east, but when if the Raptors lose to the Hawks tonight, they will be in 8th place by half a game. So it goes in Raptorland…

The Raptors are the walking wounded, what terrible luck that Bosh and possibly Turkoglu are out when things are coming down to the wire. From the beginning of the season, even though a few of us talked about the Raptors being a .500 team, and the 5th to 8th spots in the East not being decided until the last couple games of the season, it doesn’t mean we’re not nervous about the last week of the season.

Including tonight, both the Raptors and Bulls have four games to go, and their schedules look like:

Toronto
@ Atlanta
vs Chicago
@ Detroit
vs New York

Chicago
@ New Jersey
@ Toronto
vs Boston
vs Charlotte

The Chicago game is a must win, there is no question, but the Raptors have owned Detroit and New York all year, if they can win 2 of those three games, I think the Raptors sneak into the playoffs. You have to remember that Boston can’t rest their guys much coming down the stretch since they are dead-locked with Atlanta for the 3rd seed (no one wants Cleveland in the 2nd round). I don’t know, I think the playoffs are on the horizon, and with Bosh rumoured to possibly return for the playoffs….could be a boon.

First things first though, the Hawks. I checked in with Bret LaGree of Hoopinion about the Hawks:

Q. With Boston holding the tie breaker, I took a look at both your schedules, and it looks like both you guys could go 3-1 over the next four games. Milwaukee might be a better first round match-up given they lost Bogut with the broken finger, but do you really want Cleveland in the 2nd round?
A. The Hawks are going to be a decent-sized favorite in the first-round and a big underdog in the second-round regardless of the particular match-ups. I do think Milwaukee (without Bogut) is a slightly better match-up for the Hawks than Miami. For selfish reasons, I’d like to avoid another first-round series with the Heat. I’m not sure I have anything interesting left to say about those two teams playing each other. Even though the Hawks finally beat Orlando, they still match-up terribly against the Magic. The Hawks are probably no more likely to trouble Cleveland but all their games tend to be competitive until the Hawks stop scoring in the fourth quarter.

Q. Can you rate the Hawks this season? From an outsider looking in, I would say they are having a great season, comments?
A. It’s a been good season. They’ve taken another small step forward. It’s hard to see how they get from 50 wins to contending for a championship (I suspect it involves putting good defensive guards in front of Smith and Horford but I don’t have a practical and plausible scenario for making that happen.) but the Hawks were so bad (and boring-bad) for so long that competence hasn’t grown stale.

Q. I know people are talking about Jamal Crawford as a replacement for Joe Johnson, but give me a break! Shouldn’t the Hawks be doing everything possible to keep Johnson in a Hawks uniform going forward? (I have a man crush on Joe Johnson btw)
A. I was open to the idea of trading Joe Johnson and building around Smith and Horford (and Josh Childress but that ship has sort of sailed) two summers ago. Johnson’s the team’s best player but not good enough to take up such a large share of the cap on a team whose owner’s aren’t going to pay the luxury tax. Plus, they gave up too much (Diaw and 2 first-round picks) to acquire him and wasted so many resources (several draft picks, the rights to Childress) that they’ve never been in a position to acquire a true franchise player to play alongside Johnson via trade. The best they can do with their disposable assets is acquire an over-paid Bibby or Crawford. Then they keep those shot-happy defensive liabilities and further limit their options with regard to the cap. I’m not sure Johnson will re-sign but I suspect the Hawks will aggressively try and keep him. They’ll have to make more than one major trade to replace Johnson if he leaves and the organization is terribly resistant to change.

Q. Josh Smith; gush about him a bit.
A. It’s nice to have him healthy again. He really struggled to move last season after he sprained his ankle against the Raptors in the fourth game of the season. He’s back to his normal rates on the offensive glass, blocking shots, and getting steals and now that he’s (mostly but not enough) playing inside of 15-feet where defenses have to pay attention to him the passing lanes have opened up and he can take advantage of that skill, too. If he ever stops taking jump shots (three a game this year, and he makes the long twos no more frequently than he made the three-pointers he’s abstained from this season) and gets back to being a 70% free throw shooter, he’ll be a legit All-NBA candidate.

Q. I’ve hated Al Horford since he raped TJ Ford a couple years ago, but the guy has been huge for me in my fantasy league, would you consider trading him for Andrea Bargnani, straight up?
A. If there’s a precise amount of alcohol I could consume that would significantly impair my judgment but not kill me, I might consider Bargnani for Horford. Marvin Williams for Bargnani better represents my interest in Andrea in a non-altered state.

There are only a few games left this season, I had to throw a jab at Bargnani…

The last time these guys played was that epic Bosh game winner with 2 seconds left in the game. The Raptors played hard and gave themselves a chance to win the game at the end (which is all we want from this team). The Hawks are in a bit of funk heading into the playoffs; they have dropped 3 of their last 4, including their most recent loss to the Pistons. In their defense, they were missing Joe Johnson, who is expected to return tonight (great!).

Regardless of Johnson’s status tonight, the Hawks have enough weapons to really give the Raptors problems. Starting Reggie Evans may not be the way to go tonight. Josh Smith is just too athletic for Evans, who wont be giving him much trouble on either end of the floor. If the Raptors want any shot at winning, Amir Johnson needs to start, and play heavy minutes alongside Bargnani against the Smith/Horford front line. I can’t see it any other way, just saying.

Bargnani bounced-back in the game against the Celtics with 17pts 5rebs after playing TERRIBLY against the Cavs (horrible). Although he hasn’t been shooting very well from the field lately, he has to figure out a way to get some shots when that double comes. With Bosh out, room to operate is sparse. His play will be crucial tonight. If all he does tonight is elbow Horford in the face, that would make me really happy.

I’m mostly just afraid of Jamal Crawford; the guy has been killing us for years, and is averaging 21pts a game against us this season – there are really no words…hate maybe…

If Turkoglu is out tonight, this game could be over as quickly as it starts. Move the ball around, rebound and tempt Josh Smith to shoot three’s, that’s the only way I see this ending well for the Raptors.

It’s the last Raptor Fan Friday tonight at the SCC, and we’ve had a great year with your support, and really appreciate y’all showing up in the snow/cold when the team wasn’t doing very well. So come on down and join us tonight. One love baby.

Unlike the Raptors, we continue to work hard at RR and bring the goods. The good news is that AltRaps’ and Arsenalists prediction for a 3-1 week is still alive. The bad news is that all three have to come on the road starting tonight in Atlanta. After losing Sunday to a Pistons team without Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, we can expect this team to want to rebound. You will all be in my thoughts tonight as this one is going to get messy, I can guarantee you that.

The last time these guys played, it didn’t go so well, with the Hawks taking down a 118-110 decision. There was some playoff seeding on the line in that game, as the Hawks had a couple game lead over the Bulls for the 4th seed, but the Raptors had already thrown in the towel, even if Marion hadn’t.

The Match-ups

The Point: Calderon and Jack are both coming off of good games last night, Calderon more so than Jack. Triano needs to manage these two better today…if Calderon is hot, ride the wave man, don’t be afraid. What happened last night was terrible. We have to make sure that if Calderon is hot, that we use that, and not take the ball out of his hand. On the flip side, Jack needs to know his role, and not try to take the game over. He hit some big shots last night, but we have a lot of guys who are better scorers (better shooters) than he is, and they need to be utilized for these types of roles. Bibby has always hurt the Raptors, and I don’t see that changing much. If Calderon/Jack leave him open, he will take and hit that three. Triano needs to NOT play them together as the thought of these two playing defense on a combination of Bibby/Crawford/Johnson makes the Pad Thai I had for lunch make some noise in my stomach.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Talent: Johnson is going to murder DeRozan/Belinelli/Wright/Jack/whoever covers him. I don’t see any ways around this one. Hopefully Jack will not be assigned even a minute of duty covering this guy. Crawford is the other Raptor killer on this team. How many times have we seen him drop 50 on us? Again, he wont have much trouble slicing and dicing.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Wing: Turkoglu is continually being under/incorrectly utilized. His usage rate is at 18.9%; to put it in perspective, he was at 23% and 24.8% the last two seasons in Orlando. Figure he is getting between 4-6 less touches a game, as well he is being used to do the wrong types of things (should be a playmaker for others, not told to get his own shot off), and we have ourselves a problem. To put this in perspective, Jack is being utilized at 17.3%….yeah. I like this match-up with Marvin Williams for Turk, he wont get abused on defense, and should be able to do what he wants on offense.

The Edge: Raptors

The Big: Bosh vs Smith, I love this match-up. The PF battle will be crucial off the bench with Amir “put me in coach” Johnson battling Joe “I’m still kickin around” Smith on both ends. It’s amazing Joe Smith is playing, and at such a high level. A true pro, and a great pick up for the Hawks IMHO.
The Edge: Even

The Strong: I don’t have any problems with Bargnani right now. He’s doing about what I expected. Sure, I could use some more rebounding and better rotational defense, but f*ck it, the system sucks. Horford does represent some big problems for Bargs though. This guy is relentless on the boards, and lives in the paint. Leave him alone 15ft out, and he can knock those down. Bargs needs to box this guy out, job # 1. I don’t even care if he doesn’t score a lick, keep this guy off the board and in foul trouble, and this game is ours, simple.
The Edge: Atlanta

The Line

The Hawks are a 9 point favourite with an over/under of 211.5

Simulation

Visser’s sims are 13-6 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 107-95 Raptors loss.

Prediction

AltRaps predicts a win. Arsenalist predicts a win. Who am I to disagree? I’m a realist, that’s who I am. Raptors lose, sorry guys.

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