I’m sick as a dog, so this will be a short one…

Tonights game will mark the second time this season the Raptors and Rockets throw down. The first time around, Bargnani came up huge, and the bench had his back as the team played as close to a perfect game as the Raptors possibly could against a Rockets team that has been playing rather well considering they were missing Yao and Aaron Brooks.

I spoke with Jacob from Red94 about the Rockets:

So the Yao Ming era is over for the Rockets huh? Given his history of injuries (and the potential of never playing again), and all the expiring contracts out there, what is a realistic trade scenario you see happening?
While it warms my heart to know the Rockets’ marriage to Yao has been one of basketball-related devotion (and not commercial), the opportunities out there for Yao’s contract to be dealt sit somewhere between slim and none. The most attractive part of his deal will be the $8 million of the $17 million he’s owed that will be covered by insurance (though the entire contract will still count against the salary cap any team in possession of it) thanks to his most recent season-ending injury, an almost-panacea for this league’s poorer millionaire owners. The problem with dealing such relief remains that it’s hard to find a team so broke that it will simply give up $17 million worth of assets, expiring contracts or not, for some money and a broken icon who will likely never play a game for said team. Rockets fans will bring up Andre Iguodala (because doesn’t everybody at this point?), but unless Morey suddenly takes an interest in Rashard Lewis or Brandon Roy or Elton Brand, that large man and his large expiring deal will likely run out in Houston.

Kyle Lowry has been pretty solid this season (I own him in my fantasy league); with Aaron Brooks coming back from injury, can the two of them play together in the back-court, or will we see Kyle’s minutes slashed?
There had been a pretty healthy debate over who would be the ideal starter among the two before the season began, so after Lowry’s success as the primary point man, the discussion has only gotten more heated. Brooks seems so perfectly suited to the role of the 6th man, an offensive sparkplug who could ideally share the court with Lowry to close out games (although that would likely invite a three-guard-lineup featuring Martin that would mirror Dallas’, except for the whole not-having-Tyson-Chandler thing), but Aaron Brooks has earned his role as the starter. He’s the team’s best offensive option in crunch time and bid his time while watching Rafer Alston fling up errant threes his first couple of years, making any transition back to the bench after the work he’s put in seem like punishment for success. I expect the two point men who have shared the backcourt quite ably over the last two years to do quite well together given the added confidence on Lowry’s part from his successful run starting, but if you’re a fantasy owner of Lowry, I hope your league is Sarlaac-Pit-deep because Brooks will likely be starting by the end of January, especially if the Rockets hit any kind of rough patch.

So how’s that Ariza/Lee trade working out for you?
Well… the moves for both prove Daryl Morey may not be infallible, but the deal sure seems quite prescient on a financial level at least. Lee’s shown promise as a defensive stopper/energy player (and his three-point shot off of the catch is gravy, a lot more than I can say for Ariza), but that deal looks more and more like the salary dump every pundit claimed it was when the deal was made as the days go by.

Scola is having a career year, after signing a massive contract, at 30 no less. He has been improving year over year, but this is a dramatic jump; what’s changed? Will he still be contributing at a high level?
My opinion diverges from the majority of the Rockets fanbase here, but I think Luis Scola has always been this good (his numbers after Carl Landry was dealt last year are equally impressive). And by this good, I mean perfectly fine and the exact kind of player that a team like the Rockets cannot afford to have on contract for three years after this (the last year of his deal is partially guaranteed, ensuring his trade bait status in 2014-15). His production comes from abusing mismatches and finding his spots on the court, excellent skills to have if the player in question is one of a team’s lesser options; unfortunately, he has been the Rockets’ second-best player in 2010, a big reason for the team’s mediocrity. Scola himself has done nothing but produce at full-tilt all year, but his age already raises concerns (and his defense can only get more excruciating) while four years remain on his chunky contract. He exemplifies the all-world role player, and the Rockets should be glad if they find the all-world team that needs to add one of those and seems willing to send back some youth, draft picks and/or cap flexibility in return.

Other than Yao potentially getting traded, what else is in the cards for the Rockets?
Aaron Brooks looks to be the most likely Rocket to be traded, well before Yao or Scola. His contract expires after this year as he thinks extension, meaning Houston will be looking to get some kind of value for his contract before the deadline. There has also been a lot of talk including Anthony Randolph as the Knicks vehemently try and stock up draft picks (even their old ones that Morey took from them as recently as last year) in order to bring Carmelo to the Mecca; let’s just say that I would be more than enthused to try and let Randolph develop his superhuman skillset in the H. Otherwise, um, we’re getting Chris Paul and Melo, and watch out in 2012, suckas (I figure Bill Simmons and Peter Vescey try to will such trades via nonsensical rumors; I am no better).

Injury Report

Toronto
Andrea Bargnani – Out
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out
Jose Calderon – Day-to-day
Sonny Weems – Day-to-day

Houston
Yao Ming – Done
Chuck Hayes – Out
Kevin Martin – Day-to-day

Match-ups

Point Guard
The Rockets are currently 2nd in the league in assists per game, this starts with the PG’s and Kyle Lowry has been solid in Aaron Brooks’ absence. Between the two of them, they average about 12 dimes a match, with the everyone else on the team chipping a couple a game. Brooks will be coming off the bench for a few more games, so his energy and scoring from a 6th man role. With Calderon potentially out for tonight, Bayless needs to do better than the 2-10 performance he turned in against the Mavs. I’d feel a lot better if Jose was around to bring some stability to the point, but Barbosa’s speed and aggressiveness will go a long way in countering Brooks off the bench.
Edge: Rockets

Shooting Guard
DeMar’s been playing really well over the last 5 games, averaging 16.2pts a match; but he needs to get to the line much more than 5 a game he’s averaging. He can take some notes from Kevin Martin tonight (if he plays, he should), who gets to the line almost 9 times a game – easy/cheap points. So since both these guys don’t play much defense, it’s going to come down to who scores more, and my money is on Martin. Although his shot is ugly, it’s deadly, and he does a great job of getting to the line and getting folks into foul trouble.
Edge: Rockets

Small Forward
I’m not sure which has been my saving grace: Weems being injured or Kleiza playing up to potential? Regardless, the venom I’ve been spewing at the both of them has dropped considerably. With Weems out of the picture, I’m liking Kleiza’s Yin to Wrights Yang; lame I know, but it’s a nice 1-2 combo that covers a lot of angles. Battier and Budinger are basically the same player, but one is younger. They can knock down open threes, play solid defense and smart basketball. Gotta go with Kleiza/Wright on this one, since neither have the size/strength to defend Linas in the paint.
Edge: Toronto

Power Forward
Ed Davis is coming off a ridiculous career game that has let him crack the Top 10 rookie ladder for the first time. While he wont be averaging 17pts 12rebs 3stl 3blks for the rest of the season, we can expect a significant contribution from out boy; at least while he gets increased minutes while Bargnani’s out. As for Amir, AltRaps said it best:

Playing hurt, he turned in 42 minutes of simply inspired play. Hard nosed off the ball, attacking on both ends of the floor, playing with smarts. You simply couldn’t have asked for a better game from a wounded soldier.

We will need both these guys playing a high level against Scola, who’s playing huge. The last time around, the Raptors had the luxury of great performances from Bargnani, Evans, Johnson and Andersen (the latter two off the bench). Even with wave-after-wave of Raptor big man coming at him, Scola still put up a solid 19pts 6rebs 3ast. Tonight, the depth isn’t there, so Amir/Davis will have to dig in tight.
Edge: Even

Center
Neither Dorsey or Hayes are real centers in the league, but they’ve been thrust into this position. Both these guys are brutes in the paint. Expect one of them to die by halftime.
Edge: Even

The Line

Houston is 8.5 point favourites with an over/under of 212.5. Expect a fast paced, up and down match.

Happy New Years Eve.

Not sure if you realized, but 8 of the last 10 games the Raptors played were on the road. They only won 2 of them, but if you’re an optimist, they’re 2-2 in their last four; that’s something right? It’s definitely been a trial by fire to start the year, and from some of the rumours I’ve been hearing, Triano is a dead man walking. I personally don’t think it’s the right move to fire him, not that I think he’s a good coach, but it really wasn’t fair to hand him this team and expect much out of the situation. We’re good at the mob mentality in Toronto, so if people scream bloody murder loud enough, it might force BryCo’s hand in the matter.

Had a really good discussion with Jacob Mustafa from Red94, about the rough start to the year the Rockets are having, as well as a bold claim:

I’m actually stunned how poorly the Rockets have started the season; yes they played 7 of their first 10 on the road, but this was supposed to be a team that went into the playoffs and could have made some noise. Defense, which used to be a staple, has fallen off the map. What happened?
If you’re stunned by this year’s start, you can’t imagine the jaws agape among Rockets fans. I know the notion might seem crazy, but plenty of Rockets followers had gotten attached to the idea that this team might be the only answer to the Lakers in this conference thanks to years of tough matchups with them (that almost always ended in defeat except for one glorious seven game series… in which four of them ended in defeat). To see the team flailing along and struggling to get its head above water just feels incongruous, and I think most Rockets fans are still dealing with the shock of cheering for a below-average team. As for defense, the answer is simple; this team built its defensive mindset with a certain roster and with a certain coach, and now only three of those players remain on the roster, while the coach bickers with Mark Jackson to make ends meet. The defensive powerhouse that was the Houston Rockets simply dissipated, too far removed from its source to be its own entity.

You essentially traded Ariza for Lee, and he’s been a huge disappointment. This is a two part questions: 1) why did you make that trade 2) why isn’t Lee performing?
Money was saved, and an asset was gained. Observers have flippantly written that move off as a straight salary dump, and while I do think the Rockets were prudent to cut their losses (Ariza fit on the Rockets like the glove fit OJ), Lee simply fit in better with what Rockets management thought its team would be. As for Lee’s performance, he’s simply seemed out of it, though he is being saddled with the responsibility of a ballhandler at times, a role for which he’s almost cartoonishly ill-suited.

I heard some grumblings that the Rockets are still in the market to land Chris Bosh after an unsuccessful summer courtship. Can you shed any light on this subject?
After Wednesday’s rise from the grave, I doubt Bosh will be mentioned in trade talks for a while (like 4 years), but I’m pretty sure that was all based on a Jason Whitlock article where he got his Peter Vescey on and just started spouting ridiculous trade scenarios for Bosh. The Rockets’ chances at Bosh range somewhere between snowball in hell and long-term viability of Disney pop stars.

Yao Ming…I feel bad for the guy. At what point do you say “enoughs-enough” and try to salvage something for him?
Through consistent under-performance, the Houston Rockets have been one of the NBA’s more profitable franchises; that is mostly thanks to the giant one, Yao Ming. This team obviously needs a new building block, but the Rockets’ attachment to Yao runs much deeper than who the offense should be run through. This will likely be the major conflict of the Rockets’ season if playoffs keep looking less and less possible.

How do the Rockets match-up against the Raptors?
The Rockets have been decimated by super-athletic perimeter players in recent weeks, especially stud point guards; though Jarrett Jack and Jose Calderon are fine game managers, they don’t exactly strike the same fear in me as names like Paul, Rose and Westbrook. If Demar Derozan can be contained and Reggie Evans doesn’t decide to eat our faces and collect 752 rebounds, I think the Rockets’ “depth” will be a little too much for the Raptors. I also think Houston’s big man who plays no defense but can pour in buckets, Luis Scola, is better at this point in his career than the Raps’, Andrea Bargnani.

Injuries

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Should Play
Linas Kleiza – Achillies, Should Play

Houston
Aaron Brooks – Ankle, Out
Yao Ming – Leg, Out
Chase Budinger – Ankle, Day-to-day

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Lowry
One of my favourite parts the season so far has been how we’ve flip-flopped between Jack and Calderon depending on who had the better. Overall, we each have a favourite, but going between them is funny; even if you’re doing it in your head. That said, we can all agree when one (or both) of them is playing like doodoo, and Jack has been playing like doodoo of late: 7pts 3reb 3reb over the last 3 games. The good news tonight is that Brooks is out, and his lightning quick speed and scoring ability will not have us face-palming for large stretches of the game. Lowry is an energetic player, who runs the break well, but doesn’t make the best decisions. His jumper is poor, so there is no reason we should see Jack play him tight right? Let the guy shoot, and keep him away from the glass since he rebounds so well for a 6″ guard. The kids got a knack for getting to the line, so like I said again…let him shoot all he wants.
Edge: Jack

SG – DeRozan vs Martin
So we can all agree that DeMar isn’t a 26pt/game scorer, but he’s also not a 6pt/game guy either. He needs to consistently be dropping 14-17 points every single night if this team wants to be in games for the rest of the year. Martin is an excellent scorer who can get his from anywhere, and most alarmingly, from the line. The kid is great at getting to the line, and great at hitting his free throws. His shot is ugly, but it’s deadly. He gets to the rim, has nice head fakes, and will score an obscene amount of points tonight. The only chance DeRozan has is to go back at him, since he’s such a terrible defender and either get him into foul trouble, or go tit-for-tat on offense. I’m feeling positive on this one for DeMar after a brutal performance against the Sixers, he should be back, but beating Martin in this match-up will be challenging, especially if the pace of the game picks up.
Edge: Martin

SF – Weems vs Battier
Shane Battier is like Anthony Parker to me: a classy, hard working guy who makes good decisions, plays defense and makes their shots; all with a good attitude. He’s a solid cat, and would play for my team anytime. Weems is going to have to play a smart game tonight, since that’s how Shane rolls. He isn’t very athletic, but his length and high basketball IQ make him a solid defender. Weems wont have to worry about him attacking off the dribble, but if he floats a little too much on help, Battier will stick shots from the corner. Weems can use his athleticism to attack Battier off the dribble, but he should avoid over dribble and make his move quick; which he’s been doing a good job of recently. Sonny can get out on the break, and has the advantage if this gets into an up-and-down/running game. I’m looking forward to seeing this match-up play out.
Edge: Even

PF – Evans vs Scola
You have to give Evans his due: he’s playing within himself during games, and being a vocal leader of this team in the locker room. Before the Sixers game, he got the guys together to get everyone on the same page, and they won. I hope he did the same thing tonight, since this Rockets team isn’t as bad as their record says they are. He absolutely will have his hands full with Scola, as the Argentine is having a ridiculous start to the season. Luis is a crafty scorer in the post who can hit the mid-range jumper; he’s deadly from 15ft in where he’s shooting 54% this season. The one knock is that he isn’t the best defender, which wont hurt him much tonight against Evans who isn’t looking to score when he touches the ball as a first option. Scola’s rebounding has come down some since the first four games, but he is more than capable of battling on the glass if the Raptors front court lets up. This is going to be a 1-2 attack with Reggie and Amir giving Scola different looks at different points of the game. Given Johnson’s propensity to foul, Scola might get the nod in that match-up too unless Amir uses his head before trying to out muscle Luis.
Edge: Scola

C – Bargnani vs Miller
It’s amazing Miller is able to move. At this point in his career, he’s really just filler until Yao can play major minutes. Bargnani has an advantage in every facet of the game tonight, and needs to establish himself from the tip (hopefully winning it tonight). I know I’m glossing over this rather quickly, but if Andrea doesn’t dominate this match-up, there is really something wrong with him.
Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Rebounding
The Rockets are the 4th best rebounding team in The Association. Everyone crashes the boards, and makes an effort on the glass. The Raptors aren’t slouches either, even though they are 16th in the league, they only grab 2.5 less rebounds a game than the Rockets. Controlling the glass will be critical since Houston is also 4th in the league in offense (next point), and if you control the glass, you control the tempo of the game, and force them to play a different style; all on the road.

Defense
The Rockets are 4th in scoring, with a Pace Factor of 100 (# of possessions used in a game). This also ties back to rebounding since the Raptors are the 4th best team in Offensive Rebounding Rate, if they can grab a few more rebounds, the Rockets will get a few less possessions. Regardless of that, with Aaron Brooks out, Kevin Martin and Scola are the focus on offense, and need to be respected as such. DeRozan can’t be taking tonight off, and playing passively. Scola gets the room to operate in the mid-range because K-Mart attracts so much attention on the perimeter. One of these two need to be shut down, and since Evans is a weaker defender than I’d like, it will be tasked to DeRozan (and Weems in certain match-ups) to play Martin tough. I’m not so confidant in this, so rebounding will be crucial to control the flow…ok I’m rambling, but you see where I’m going.

Pick-up where they left in Philly
It’s not like we haven’t played well before. The energy, assertiveness and will to win on our homecourt need to be there from the tip. Like I said earlier, the Rockets are a lot better than they have shown, and need to be respected as such. Can’t get down early, can’t take bad shots, the ball needs to be moved around, and every needs to be vocal on defense.

The Line

This game is even, and that’s exactly how I see it. The Raptors can win it, but they have to take it; the Rockets wont be laying down. This is an important game since we got the Celtics on Sunday.

In Toronto? Come on down to Sports Center Cafe for Raptor Fan Fridays.

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One love.

We have about a month until the NBA Draft and free agency kicks in, so I decided to talk to some of the teams around the NBA that have been linked to Chris Bosh and the Raptors in one way or another to get a feel for their franchise, and what we could expect back in a sign and trade.

While the early offers for CB4 have not been very exciting (you’ll see when we get to them), they do paint a picture of why trades are so difficult, especially when you have your back to the wall. While I don’t think the picture is so bleak in regards to Bosh (I still think he resigns; there is no sane reason why he would either), I concede that we wont even get 40 cents on the dollar for our franchise player.

First stop, I check in with Rahat Huq from The Houston Rockets TrueHoop blog Red94. Overall, he’s a good guy, a bit delusional, but he knows his stuff (I can’t wait till we resign Bosh so I get my face on his website banner for a week or so):

Sam Holako: Are you guys regretting replacing Artest with Ariza? Maybe I’m just being biased, but Artest took pretty much the same team to game 7 against the Lakers last year, and Ariza couldn’t even get them into the playoffs.

Rahat Huq: Not at all. I fully appreciate the contributions Ron made to this team last season, and it was definitely a surreal ride. But let’s be clear – he didn’t take this team anywhere against the Lakers and in fact, was a complete liability offensively.

For the series, Ron shot just 38% from the floor (28% from 3) in averaging his 15.6 points per game and was even more dreadful when we needed him most upon the injury to Yao, averaging just 9.5ppg in the last 4 games, on 28% shooting (and a terrifying 15% on his 26 3-point attempts.)

Ariza wasn’t brought here to get the team anywhere; Trevor was signed to be a complementary piece. He struggled early due to being forced into a high usage role out of necessity, but settled in very nicely after the arrival of Kevin Martin.

SH: Let’s not beat around the bush; make me an offer for Chris Bosh.

RH: These are my two offers:

1) Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Jared Jeffries, Dave Andersen, Jermaine Taylor, one Knick draft pick
2) Jordan Hill, Shane Battier, Dave Andersen, Jermaine Taylor, one Knick draft pick.

Andersen and Taylor included to make the numbers match – I could be slightly off on the figures.

SH: That offer makes me sad…very very sad. While Hill and the Knicks pick could have big value, I think I can speak for the rest of The Republic when I say that we expected more of an offer. I honestly haven’t even heard of Dave Andersen and Jermaine Taylor. The problem with your offer is that you think the Raptors have no leverage in this, but they do. Everyone knows that Chris Bosh wont leave the franchise high-and-dry for no other reason than if he does, he’s out 1 year and $30mill. Just for being insolent, Colangelo can use this S&T as a means to get rid of some dead weight in the form of either Calderon or Turkoglu. Let’s figure Jose since Brooks isn’t really a point guard, and you guys will need someone who knows how a pick-n-roll works.

RH: The inclusion of Andersen and Taylor would simply be for salary matching purposes. As far as our offer, I think you are coming in with unrealistic expectations. Look at the history of sign&trades for max players. From Chucky Atkins and Ben Wallace (when he was a nobody), to draft picks for Rashard Lewis and Kenyon Martin, you won’t find a package even approaching the attractiveness of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and a lightly protected probable lottery pick.

SH: I have a feeling we might get into a fist-fight…so lets talk about Yao. The guy misses a whole season, is largely forgotten around the league, but should make a full recovery and be Über effective next season. The prospect of playing against a Bosh/Yao front court is scary; what are the plans for him going forward?

RH: He’s resumed workouts and is on schedule with his recovery.

I think the organization plans to limit his minutes and usage next season, and that shouldn’t be too great a concern considering some of the other parts that are in place. Still, Yao’s greatest value to the team is on the defensive end where, while he is not the best of shotblockers, he is as good as just about anyone at protecting the paint.

Yao/Bosh would indeed be scary simply because their skillsets mesh so perfectly. I’ve long felt that Yao was a finisher rather than an initiator. With Bosh’s high post abilities, he would provide the team a focal point from which to start its offense.

SH: Suppose in a bizzarro NBA world the Raptors sign-and-trade Bosh for Jordan Hill and spare parts, how do the Rockets matchup against the rest of the Western Conference? What can we expect from them?

RH: They won 42 games without Yao and Bosh and with a major personnel change midway through the season. If they can add what would have to be the best power forward – center duo in basketball in Yao – Bosh to the quintet of Scola-Lowry-Brooks-Martin-Ariza, along with a lottery pick, you would have to expect a significant increase in wins. Will they contend immediately? The talent is certainly there, but I think it could take a while and at least some growing pains to reach that level.

Based on your indignation over my proposal, I think you’re really suffering from delusions of grandeur. If a package of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and a future lottery pick would not suffice, in light of what has been bartered in past sign & trades of this type (Atkins/Wallace, only picks), I must ask, what exactly are you hoping for? It’s true that the Raptors hold leverage, but to a certain degree. They’ll pick the destination, but they won’t exactly be able to extract a king’s ransom, nor will they be able to offload their garbage (Calderon, Turkoglu.)

On the second night of a back-to-back, the Raptors head to Houston to play a retooled Rockets team; without Bosh for the 5th game in a row.

I checked in with Rahat Huq of Red94 (you can catch him on Twitter) to get a sense of where the Rockets were after the McGrady trade:

Q: Darryl Morey: best GM in the league?
A: Obviously I’m biased, so my opinion there doesn’t hold much weight, but I think most people around the league have certainly taken notice. What Morey needs now in his resume is real success. The team obviously exceeded expectations last season and prior to the trade, this year, but for him to really cement his standing, he needs a real title run to show that his approach isn’t just conducive to overachievement – it can bring championships.

Q: How do you see Martin and Jeffries fitting into this team?
A: Jeffries just looks like a Houston Rocket – the activity and energy on the defensive end, always rotating, making deflections, drawing charges. Unfortunately, he also fits the bill for Rockets teams of past years on the offensive side in that he has no abilities. Martin is one of the most efficient scorers in our league and he kind of symbolizes the first major step towards what perhaps might be a vision to build an “offensive machine” – a drastic shift away from the defensive philosophy of years past. But he attacks the basket and draws fouls and it looks like, with the Lowry trade last year, that might be one of the main skills that the Rockets are building upon.

Q: Do you seirously think you guys have any chance of landing Bosh? What’s Plan B when you don’t land him?
A: I think there could be a chance given his ties to the state of Texas and the solid lineup we have built to (theoretically) fit around him. He fits this offense perfectly with his ability to operate from the high post. I think there might be some appeal to a guy like Bosh to coming to a situation where he would not only be the undisputed first option, but also have sufficient help around him. That’s pretty unique and I’m not sure many other teams can offer that appeal. Plan B would likely be Stoudemire or simply holding on until the deadline to see who might become available via trade. But I do think they will be very aggressive in free agency in gathering from what Daryl Morey has said.

Q: I’m sure you guys must be a stinging from getting thumped by the Raptors the last time out; what do you have to do to win this game?
A: I would really be shocked if we won this game. Not enough emphasis has been placed on the loss of Kyle Lowry, a guy who statistically speaking has been the team’s most impactful player this season.

The last time we played Houston, the Raptors played as good a game as they ever have, taking it to the Rockets for a full 48. With no real threat on the perimeter, and no double-team worthy player in the post, the Raptors perimeter defense was able to keep Battier and Ariza in check (and Brooks who went 6-20 but put up 20pts).

Scola and Landry were just monsters in the post, and absolutely owned Bosh and Bargnani combining for 46pts 22rebs, but Bosh and Bargnani countered with 41pts and 13rebs, and Turkoglu came up big from the wing with 23pts 6rebs 5ast. Replacing Landry off the bench with Jeffries is a step back, but the Rockets improved with the moves overall both strategically and tactically.

While the addition of Kevin Martin gives the Rockets someone who can create from the wing and score in bunches, he gives it back on defense. It will be up to DeRozan (but mostly Weems and Belinelli) to attack the hell out of him on offense, and keep Martin on his toes.

If Bosh were playing, I’d be all-in for a Raptor win, but in his absence, we don’t have a clear edge in the paint. Bargnani hasn’t really been utilized effectively, and Evans/Johnson/Rasho haven’t been able to fill in by committee. At the minimum, the pick-and-roll with Evans should just be put aside and never used again under any circumstances. While he does get the ball in motion, he is unable to do anything with it.

BARGNANI. BALL. PLEASE!!

I mean seriously, last night Bargs went 6-9 from the field; with Bosh out, why isn’t he getting more shots? I realize some of it has to do with Bargnani making himself available and aggressive; but no plays are being called for him. Nothing. Just to recap shot distribution last night:

Rasho Nesterovic – 4-10
Hedo Turkoglu – 3-8
Andrea Bargnani – 6-9
Jarrett Jack – 4-8
DeMar DeRozan – 4-10
Reggie Evans – 2-4
Antoine Wright – 2-8
Jose Calderon – 2-5
Amir Johnson – 3-7
Patrick O’Bryant – 1-3
Marco Belinelli – 2-4
Sonny Weems – 5-11

That’s a lot of bad shots that could have been given to bargnani. Even if a quarter of those missed shots (those 5 combined for 18-46 = 28 missed shots) were called for Bargnani, that’s 9 more attempts by somebody who was shooting the ball well. When you figure the Raptors lost by 20, that gap starts to close rapidly, even with the sloppy play. Think about it Jay, it could help tonight.

First up we have the Kings. I’ll be honest, apart from their Über rookie Tyerke Evans, Kevin Martin and Jason Thompson, I know nothing about this team. So I decided to check in with one of the best NBA bloggers out there, Zach Harper from Talk Hoops, Cowbell Kingdom and Hardwood Paroxysm, if you haven’t been following him, now is time…do it:

The Kings started the season on a tear of sorts, what slowed them down?
Reality didn’t help them keep their early season pace, that’s for sure. With the Kings, everything was so new and Jason Thompson was playing extremely well to begin the year. In fact, you could have even made the case for JT to challenge for the All-Star game after the first month in just his second year. But ever since they choked away back to back games against the Cavs and Lakers in late December, the team has been on a free fall. The defense has been nonexistent (just four opponents held under 100 in the last 22 games) and they’re getting nothing inside in terms of consistent offensive production. Their best post defender the past month has been Jon Brockman, who is 6’7″ with lifts in his shoes. Combine all of that with the fact that they can’t win on the road and their inability to close out games and it’s amazing they’ve held up this well as of late.

Looks like you have a player in Tyreke Evans; how good is he? What’s his ceiling? ROY?
The Kings franchise hasn’t had a young player this good with this high of a ceiling since Oscar Robertson and that’s not an exaggeration. Tyreke Evans is going to be a star in this league. He can dominate the game by driving to the basket and playing defense. And oh boy, his defense. He’s a really good defender and not just for a rookie. He can defend three positions. Now, if he learns how to knock down the three then we’re approaching dangerous territory. Rookie of the Year has all but been wrapped up for him for about a month now. He’s the only one putting together a full season so far. Jennings faded and Curry took too long to come on strong. Assuming he stays healthy, he should be unanimous for the ROY awartd.

Kevin Martin looks to be on the outs with Sac, and also a rumoured target of the Raptors, what happens to him in the next two weeks?
I doubt he’s going anywhere in the next two weeks. Kings want to see what they have with him and Tyreke in the backcourt. I think they can work perfectly together but they can’t freeze out the rest of the team while playing together (which has unfortunately happened since his return). They’ll give Martin at least the end of the season to see what they have with him and Evans. And if they can prove to be a 50-point backcourt that helps bring wins then there’s no way he goes anywhere.

Will Kenny Thomas finally prove to be useful for the Kings and bring someone back, or does he walk at the end of the year?
K9 had a couple of productive games sometime in late November or early December. And since then he’s disappeared. That might be because he sits behind Sean May and we can’t see him now because of it. I’m not sure. I don’t think the Kings will make any moves at the trade deadline. Martin would be traded for someone like Al Jefferson but that’s not going to happen. The Kings are better off doing a trade around the draft than this trade deadline. They’ll let K9 expire and unless a contender wants to take Nocioni, Garcia or Beno for cap relief, I doubt Sacramento does anything this season.

Anything you want to add?
I’m not sure what Chris Bosh’s career high is but against this Kings interior defense, I can almost guarantee he’ll break it. From what I’ve heard, Omri Casspi should have a big fan base at the arena on Sunday. I recommend watching him play. He’s very competitive, fiery and finds a way to contribute without ever getting a play called for him. He’s very fun to watch and easy to root for.

A lot of nice pieces on this Sacramento team. Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes have been heaven-sent for me in two of my leagues, Tyreke Evans is the reason I’m in second in one of my drafts, and I picked up Martin a week before he returned from injury, and am starting to reap the rewards (those 30 point games really help me keep distance with the folks behind me). Now all that needs to happen for me is for these guys to perform well, give me my points, but for the Raptors to win.

Jack and DeRozan will have their hands full with Evans and Martin, although they will be able to return the favour on defense. Udrih is their version of Banks, and as the first point guard of the bench…well, I laugh at that – HAH! I always liked Francisco Garcia, but he will be facing the three headed 2-by-committee who have been playing pretty good over the last few games.

What has me excited is that if the Kings have no one to cover Bosh, that also means they have no one to cover Bargnani; it will be up to them to take advantage and capitalize. I’m guessing in the vicinity of 50pts and 23reb between the two…that seems reasonable.

What worries me is that the Raptors haven’t played since Wednesday, and they usually come lethargic and sloppy in these situations. A young, athletic team like the Kings can get up and down if you sleep on them, and with the Raptors history of playing down…I just don’t want to go through one of those games where the Raptors spot a 10 point lead, and claw their way back to eventually win by 7 or 8.

Turkoglu may or may not go, and either way, I think we can expect the same production form him – just saying…

The gamblers have the Raptors as 8.5 point favourites with an over/under of 215.5.