I caught my first Wolves game of the Rubio era yesterday; liked what I saw. They are a nice team, with some real solid pieces to build around: young point guard with all-star potential; elite power forward who does everything; and a young talented supporting cast. Even without their 2012 1st round pick, you could argue they are better positioned than the Raptors going forward; especially considering no one on the roster makes more than $6.5m (no bad contract imho).

I spoke with Benjamin Polk of A Wolf Among Wolves:

The Wolves seem like a nice, young, deep team in-spite of Khan’s best efforts; am I wrong?

You are not wrong. A few qualifiers on that though. First, although Kahn certainly has his fair share of bewildering moves (drafting Jonny Flynn chief among them), I don’t think he’s quite as terrible as he’s made out to be. When he replaced Kevin McHale, the team’s roster was a hot mess. Untangling it all would have driven the best of us to drink. Second, while people are feeling pretty good about them right now, they are still a wing scorer/defender and an actual (not Darko-holographic) big man away from being for real. If can can make that happen (without a ’12 first-round pick and without giving up anything serious) then you can color me impressed.

True or False: Rubio is the real deal.

That is true. Nobody passes like that by accident; the kid is seriously gifted. But: I’m still not convinced that his solid shooting isn’t an anomaly. If he regresses back down into the sub-40% range (where he was projected), he’ll be a lot easier to defend. Also, right now he has the second-worst turnover rate of any point guard in the top 30 (Mario Chalmers is worst). That’ll take some fixing.

Call the game.

Well, since both the Raptors and the Wolves are working on new identities under new coaches it’s still really hard for me to know who they are. Statistically, they’re pretty even so far–the Wolves have been a bit better defensively, while the Raps have been a bit better on O. But because I’m a blatant homer I’m gonna go with the Wolves, let’s say by five.

Match-ups

Point Guard
Both Ridnour and Rubio have been doing their damage from the perimeter this season. Yesterday against the Wizards, they took three shots inside of 9 feet between the two of them.  Now that we know how these guys score/operate, Calderon and Carter should be prepared, right? We may see some remnants of fatigue tonight with Calderon, and if the Raptors get into an early hole, don’t expect to see heavy minutes from him. Barbosa may even see some time at the point since Carter really can’t put in much more than 10 minutes himself. I’m just hoping Ridnour doesn’t have another career night against the Raptors; he always gets up to play us. Barea might see action tonight, but the guys been injured to start the season, so he wont be a huge factor given he wont be logging heavy minutes.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
DeMar hasn’t been helping himself at all the last couple games. I still stand by my assessment of him needing to get to the line more; three trips in the last two games is unacceptable. Both Ellington and Johnson are perimeter players who will make DeRozan pay if he gives them too much room to shoot. He needs to set the tone early, test the Wolves defense early, and be engaged from the onset, otherwise another 8pt 2reb performance is all we can hope for.
Edge: Even

Small Forward
By all rights, Beasley should be playing for the Raptors; why we passed on taking him back from Miami is beyond me. I’m asking because I’m interested to know what people think: would you rather have Beasley and Norris Cole or James Johnson and a trade exception that wont get used? Fortunately, Michael is injured and wont be dropping 31 on us tonight. Leaves a combination of Derrick Williams and Wesley Johnson for JJ, Butler and Forbes to deal with. Wont be quite as bad as it could have been, but with three games in three nights, we’re going to bear witness a lot of ugly.
Edge: Wolves

Power Forward
You’d be hard-pressed to name a better power forward than Kevin Love right now. Bargnani could actually do worse than look to him for some pointers on rebounding and putting himself in the right spots at the right time. Otherwise, I am really looking forward to this match-up. Love will have a hard time defending Bargnani off the bounce, but will give him more than a handful on the glass. Love should win the match-up and post somin’ nasty on the box score, but Bargnani will take back his. Whatever happens, I have a feeling that this game will be won on the wing.
Edge: Wolves

Center
Darko doesn’t play heavy minutes, and when he does, he doesnt leave much of a mark on the game. The guy will block a couple shots, grab a couple rebounds and score a couple from 3 feet; that’s it. The Wolves will go small ball whenever they can, making Magloire less useful than he already is. Amir should benefit against a smaller front court, but he still needs to show up and make things happen. This will be the least interesting match-up tonight.
Edge: Even

Injuries

Raptors
Linas Kleiza – Knee, Game-Time Decision

Timberwolves
MIchael Beasely – Foot; Out
Jose Juan Barea – Hamstring, Out
Malcolm Lee – Knee, Out

Keys to the Game

1. Limit Kevin Love’s effectiveness on the boards: the Wolves are 2nd in the league in rebounds/game; have to box the guy out make him work for everything
2. Control the pace: Raptors do much well when they slow the pace, and walk the ball up on offense. Getting into an up-and-down will do nothing but create space on the perimeter for the Wolves to shoot uncontested jumpers which they are good at hitting.
3. Attack the paint: the Raptors went to the foul line 12 times against the Sixers; this is utterly unacceptable. You need to be able to get easy points on the board; have to take advantage of the athleticism our key-players have, and attack the defense off the bounce.
4. No open looks: I’m not sure how much more of this I can take, but the Raptors do a great job of giving opposing teams clean looks at the rim from the perimeter. How many open shots did the Nets hit on Friday? …makes me crazy…

The Line

The gamblers have the Raptors as 3.5 point favourites with an over/under of 188. If the Raptors are to win a game over the next three, it will be tonight (we’ve never seen the Raptors play three games back-to-back-to-back, but it’s going to get very ugly come Wednesday). I hate to say it, but I’d bet against the line right now, and take the Wolves by 4. This is a team that walked into the Wizards house shorthanded, and beat them like they stole something.

Hitting up another of our TrueHoop partners for a look at the upcoming season. This time we hit up a city that is on my short list of places to visit: Milwaukee. These guys have the best name for a fan site: Bucksketball and those of you with a Rudolph fetish might enjoy their banner.

Last season we beat them in their home gym to go 3-0 on the young season and everything was coming up roses. Then, early in the new year we sucked eggs during one game and Bosh thought the ball had the cooties the next time we faced them. Marion arrived and we kicked their asses in the second game of our glorious 6 game win streak. So, a split.

Predicted starting 5:

For the love of god I hope Brandon Jennings is the starting point guard and not Luke Ridnour.  But, I’m not optimistic.  Ridnour/Redd/Delfino/Warrick/Bogut (fingers crossed on Bogut, hoping he’s over the injury by opening night.

Best offensive player:

For all the problems people have with Redd, he’s still the Bucks most efficient scorer, and it’s not even close.  Offense, for the first time in about twenty years, will be the Bucks biggest problem.

Best defensive player:

Andrew Bogut is the team’s defensive heartbeat.  If he’s in, they can control the glass and hold their own against most big men.  If he’s not, then Dan Gadzuric and Francisco Elson are in charge.  If we could somehow combine them into one man they might have the girth to stand up to centers in the NBA, but alone they are too small to deal with the pounding for more than 15 minutes each.

Best new player:

Jennings is the man everyone wants to see.  He’s already close to Redd as the Bucks most recognizable player, and judging from his strong summer league performance, he’s closing in on being their most important player on the court too.

Player that will be missed:

Richard Jefferson wasn’t all that pretty on the court, but he delivered offense when Redd and Bogut were out.  He also at least was a body on defense, which is more than can be said about Charlie Villanueva.  As much as I liked Charlie V. from January on last year, Jefferson’s absence will be most notable.

Weakest link in your top 8 rotation players:

The small forward position provides virtually no offense.  Fans still don’t know what to make of Joe Alexander, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is a terrific defensive player that can fill in anywhere, but offers little in the form of offensive capabilities and Carlos Delfino has been underwhelming in his previous few years in the NBA. 

greatest weakness as a team:

Offense.  Where will it come from if Redd cannot round into form after ACL surgery last season?

Biggest question heading into the season:

Can Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd stay healthy and improve on last year’s record?

If I was GM for a day, I would…

Have kept Ramon Sessions.

Your opinion of the Raptors:

If the Raptors have finally shored up their swingman position they could make some playoff noise.  I’m just not sure that Hedo Turkoglu and Demar Derozan qualify as "shoring up" the position.

If you had to assign a "movie title" to your expectations of the season,
what would it be?:

Groundhog Day.  (The Bucks miss the playoffs again)

w/l prediction for your team:

37-45

Our thanks to the guys at Bucksketball. Grab a look at their Media Day recap, their glossary of terms (jacker!), and a great piece on something near and dear to Raptors fans hearts: theme music.

Grab the Opening Tip.

Sorry Dinosty, don’t mean to bastardize your family tradition here, but duty calls. I sat down to write the Pre-Game for Orlando, when I realized it was a waste of time (I’m still gonna do it, don’t worry). If the Raptors got Bucked by a Milwaukee team that just lost Redd for the season, on the heals of a 3 game winning streak, what hope is there against the third best team in the league that is sporting thee All-Stars? The answer is none.

Don’t fret, this game should be entertaining. Bosh always gets up to play his BFF. There will even be points in the game where we will all think that the Raptors can pull it out, but they wont. I probably lost all credibility calling a win against the Bucks, but it was an educated guess, humour me…

• I was assuming the Raptors were feeling good about themselves, as three wins in a row (the first since the first three games of the season) in such a solid fashion should have spilt over on Friday;
• Redd was out (he dropped 35 the last time they played);
• Bogut was inured and questionable;
• Ridnour was injured and questionable;
• Home game;
• All that big talk about making the playoffs bla bla bla

Hola mamacita

Still drunk on the Kool-Aid? Ok…

The Magic are 35-10 on the season, 17-6 on the road, 17-6 against the East (1 of those losses were to the Raptors), 8-2 in their last 10, +8.2 scoring differential, 3 All-Stars…good coach……management team committed to winning………better weather…………they just beat the Cavs, so the taste of blood is fresh in their mouths……………the clincher: they wont lose 2 in a row to the Raps.

The worst part about this game is that it isn’t in Orlando, and we wont be able to see their dancers, which are phenomenal compared to the Bucks’. It was actually a tough choice for me, but I have to go with Danielle, dark haired girls (I’m not really into blonds-maybe the bias comes from the fact that they think I look like a terrorist) with a tight body…is-a-good!

Injury Report

Toronto Raptors
Kris Humphries

Orlando Magic
Some guy named Mike Wilks

The Match-ups

Calderon vs Nelson
The Edge: Nelson - The kid is legitimate. I was afraid of him last year in the playoffs when everyone said Forderon would destroy him…how wrong they were. Fresh off his All-Star nomination, he will have something to prove, and JC/AP/Rokoman will be the victims.

Parker vs Lee
The Edge: Lee - For no other reason then Parker will be doubling down on Howard, and Lee will have the pick of the litter on how to hurt the Raptors the most.

Moon vs Turkoglu
The Edge: Turkoglu - There is a case to be made for Hedu to be an All-Star too. He has been a thorn in our side, and will continue to be. Welcome to Pump Fake City, population: Moon.

Bosh vs Lewis
The Edge: Bosh - Lewis had 20pts 9asts 6rebs last time out, so it wont be easy, but Bosh will be motivated to show his BFF that he has game. Lewis will be tough on the defensive end though.

Bargnani vs Howard
The Edge: Howard - VL should have a good game. He would have had a great game the Bucks, but Triano had a brain-fart and didn’t play in the 2nd quarter whe he was hot (where the Raptors also lost the game). Howard had 39pts last time, I expect about the same this time around.

The Line

VegasInsider.com has it Orlando -6.5, I think that is generous.

The Prediction

lol…2 losses in a row for the Raptors.

With the next four games (after tonight’s) against the elite of the league, the time is now for the Raptors to win their 4th game in a row for the first time this season. The Bucks are clinging onto the 8th spot for dear life now that Redd is lost for the season with a torn ACL. A big game with playoff implications as the Raptors can come with a game of the 8th spot with a win tonight.

The Bucks are 4-6 in their last 10, and currently on a two game losing streak dropping Wednesdays game against the pacers 107-99 off the heels of a monstrous game by TJ Ford (34 points). Unfortunately for the Bucks, again, both Luke Ridnour and Andrew Bogut are expected to miss tonight’s game with injuries. Tough to lose three starters, be on the road and facing a team that is starting to feel good about themselves after stringing together three wins in a row.

Redd dropped 34 on the Raptors last time out, and those shots/points need to go somewhere. Look for Jefferson, Villanueva and Sessions/Bell to be leading the charge. Frankly, Jefferson scares me. The guy has been a Raptor killer for years now, and will be  looking for redemption from the last time they played the Raptors. Even though the Bucks took the game, RJ contributed 6 points; we can expect Raptor killa RJ tonight, the one who dropped 19 on Indiana, so Moon beware, no falling asleep or going for the pump fakes, otherwise you will be sharing vegemite/grits recipes with Jawai while Graham takes your place.

It just dawned on me, we essentially traded Villanueva for O’Neal (no need to get too technical, they were the principals of all the deals). It hurt me then, and it hurts me now. Although Villanueva plays defense like the girls at rail when AltRaps walks in (when they find out he has no money in his pocket), the kid can score and he hits the glass. He is a career 15pt 7reb player against the Raptors, so I know I’m not alone sighing when he nails a three, or glides through the paint with relative ease.

Hola!

An important game for Barney, as we get to see what VL is made off coming off that abysmal game against the Nets; 8pts 1reb 1ast. I normally would be very skeptical, but I truly believe he has turned the corner and will respond in kind. That, and the Bucks really have no nobody that can pose VL any sort of problem. With Bogut expected to miss tonight’s game, VL wont be matched up with anyone who can hurt him on the defensive end. Sure Gadzuric, Allen and Elson are big dudes, but come on, even by committee they don’t add up to a single serving of VL.

Unsurprisingly, Bosh was named to the All-Star game as a reserve. Toss up on whether he should be a starter with how well KG and the Celtics are doing, but will have his time shortly. This will mark the fourth time he will be representing the Raps at the mid-season yawn-athon. Not to be a buzz kill, being an All-Star in this league is tainted when you put the decision of who should be starting in the fans hands. Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather see Iverson playing then say…Jameer Nelson, but is Iverson still an All-Star?

Something that has been concerning me of late is his rebounding. In the last three games, he has grabbed only 19 boards for a 6.3 clip per game. That’s about 3.4 less then his season average (almost a third). He really needs to make a commitment to rebounding tonight, the points will come, but rebounding has to improve.

Err, to the right is Kayla. You don’t know how hard it was to the pic the Bucks best cheerleader (they are known as the Energee dance pak), bunch of butter-faces (everything but her face). What do you expect from a team that is owned by a US Senator, and is in the mid-west? Kayla is the best of the lot.

The Injury Report

Toronto
Kris Humphries

Milwaukee
Michael Redd
Andrew Bogut – questionable
Luke Ridnour – questionable

The Match-Ups

Calderon vs Sessions
The Edge: Calderon - This is contingent on whether Ridnour plays, but even then, JC gets the nod. Sessions is a pretty good defender, so JC wont be getting many cheap baskets. Look for the high pick n roll, if you don’t know what that is, just watch, every time the Raptors will be offense, they will go to the pick n roll tonight…

Parker vs Bell
The Edge: Parker – Bell was a thorn in our side the last two times out, but he is far more effective coming off the bench as a spark then as a starter, IMHO. He can hit open jumpers, unfortunately for him, there isn’t anyone Parker needs to double, so he will be all up in Bell’s grill. I think this will be a match-up to keep your eye on.

Moon vs Jefferson (Updated, thanks yertu)
The Edge: Jefferson - Pump fake city! If Moon can minimize his going after a pump-fake to about once a quarter, and keep RJ out of the paint, and stay at home regardless of what happens (no need to double anyone since Redd, Ridnour and Bogut are out), then RJ will have to fight for every point he scores. On the offensive end, Moon needs to make RJ work by cutting through the paint and running around the perimeter, no plays off.

Bosh vs Villanueva
The Edge: Bosh - CV is gonna have a huge game, I can feel it, but Bosh will prevail. He just got the All-Star nod, so adrenaline is pumping, andwill pace Charlie’s offense, and out-pace his rebounding and defense.

Bargnani vs Gadzuric
The Edge: VL - Statement game for VL. I get the sense that this will be a committee job for the Bucks defending VL. Fortunately, they don’t have anyone to throw at Barney that will bother him too much. 21/8 tonight, book it.

The Line

No line was posted at the time of publishing, but I’ll give a spread of -5.5, Raptors

The Prediction

Raptors by 5, could get ugly for the Bucks if Bargnani gets off early.

We have Raptor Fan Friday’s tonight at Philthy’s, free beer to the first 10 people courtesy of Arsenalist.

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