Things are going according to my plan. We’re only one game into the season, but the Raptors are gunning. I must admit, I was skeptical about the team during training camp since folks were injured and the game-play was lethargic, but the Raps found their on-switch, and took it right at LeBron et al. The Raptors beat the Cavs for the first time in two years in convincing fashion. Sure the Cavs don’t match up well against us with all them slow 7 footers and the rest of the lot (tell me you didn’t crack a smile or laugh maniacally when Moon took those jumpers, lol).

The difference between the elite teams and the rest is that they have the tools/desire to make a run to draw things even. With the Raptors up 18 heading into half-time, Mike Brown must have delivered a Braveheart level speech that inspired LeBron & Co. to go on a run to start the 3rd, and bring the game within 7. They even tied the game at 69 when it happened, the Raptors regrouped and went on a run to finish the game. That’s what good teams do, they don’t fold. It isn’t something we are used to seeing, but BC, for one game at least, looks like he has built us a team to be proud of.

The Grizzlies on the other hand had a pretty rough start to the season at the hands of the Pistons. What did our TrueHoop brothers at 3 Shades of Blue (a great blog btw) have to say:

Wow. That was just horrible. HORRIBLE … Laziness, lack of polish, lack of coaching preparation? … A rough start. VERY rough. Couldn’t have been any rougher, really.

Losing to the Pistons was once something that didn’t upset folks, but not so much anymore. Dumars has done an equally good job of blowing up this team as he did building a championship one. Whatever, I’m just happy that the Raptors have the ability to solidify a great opening season win, with a follow-up one to a lesser team. For all the quality young talent this Memphis team has, they aren’t very good, Iverson seems incognito too for some reason.

Match-ups

Calderon vs Conley
I don’t like Jose running the off-guard with Jack at the point, he is almost invisible, but he had a decent game overall. His shot wasn’t falling, and he missed one less free throw then all of last season, but he got the rest of the Raps involved and dropped 11 dimes. He needs to attack Conley, who is coming off one of his worst games as a Grizzly, and not let up. Fortunately, Conley wont provide much in terms of defense, so Jose should be able to take advantage of the sophomore.
The Edge: Calderon

DeRozan vs Mayo
Easily the most exciting match-up of the game. It will be fun to watch these two chasing each other around. Both are athletic and can get up and down the court quickly. DeRozan, by my count, had a great debut. He hit key shots, slashed to the rim, grabbed a couple boards, and made things tough for Parker. Mayo is a machine that didn’t have a good shooting night. You can bet he will come out gunning, and take it right at at our rook.
The Edge: Mayo

Turkoglu vs Gay
Our big FA acquisition did well in the opener considering he missed most of the pre-season. He wasn’t shooting great (3-7), but dropped 12pts 7rebs 3ast 3blks…I’ll take it. Gay was one of those guys that pained me to see: what could have been right (not so much anymore though if Bargs keeps this up)? He is the long, athletic, durable and can score, but I have a hankering that Hedo will take a big step forward tonight playing that high pick-n-roll with Bosh/Bargnani.
The Edge: Even

Bosh vs Randolph
Bosh looks to have found his niche in the Cavs win. He’s an elite player, but not one who carries the team offensively. He is a complimentary offensive player, but his defense and rebounding was off the charts as far as I’m concerned. Against Z-Bo, I don’t expect much otherwise. Zach will get his 20-10, but he’s a black hole. His impact on the game is strictly statistical, and I don’t expect it to be much different tonight.
The Edge: Bosh

Bargnani vs Gasol
How YOU doin? Shaq, tell me how VL’s ass tastes! Bargs was a one man wrecking crew. He owned Shaq/Varejao/Ilgauskas all night (when he wasn’t sitting on the bench due to foul trouble). He took his man off the bounce, hit 3s in transition, created his own shot, and grabbed a couple boards. Efficient and deadly, Gasol is a stud, but a slow one. 21pts 15rebs in 30min against the Pistons. Those are scary numbers, but he will have his hands full trying to play Bargs from the 3pt line in. Expect a lot of what we saw with the Cavs: Bargnani having his way. It will take getting used to, but Bargs will own a lot of centers this year, makes me giddy.
The Edge: Bargnani

The Bench
Memphis has Thabeet on their, by default their bench sucks. I still laugh when I think about them taking Thabeet with dudes like Harden, Rubio and everyone else not named Blake was available, lol. The Raptors bench on the other hand was solid. Belinelli scored at will, Wright had swagger and Jack made Calderon a bit nervous. How bad was the Memphis bench against the Pistons: they contributed 11pts 14rebs…8 guys contributed less then what Gasol did as an individual.
The Edge: Raptors

Injury Report

Raptors
Reggie Evans
Sonny Weems

Grizzlies
Allen Iverson**

The Line

The line is set at Raps -4 (-105) with an over/under of 195.

Keys to Winning

• Attack Gasol from the opening tip, need to make Thabeet and Haddadi play big minutes tonight
• Box out Randolph and Gasol – have to limit those boards
• Let Randolph score as many as he wants, he does a good job of disrupting the offensive flow of his own team

Prediction

The Grizz have nice-young talent up and down this roster, but they don’t have much of a team. You have to figure when they took Thabeet at #2 that they aren’t really serious about winning to begin with. The Raptors will get off to an 2-0 start, this should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Some of the comments your readers had after our first set of questions were great and I feel they deserve a proper response. I wish I could respond to everyone but you have such a great following on Raptors Republic that I think I’d be writing until well after the draft

Keep in mind I was trying to issue a relatively short answer to a specific question regarding the Raptors drafting a SG or SF at the #9 spot in the draft. Perhaps I should have started the conversation by saying the first thing that needs to be done is a compilation of the pre-draft assets the Raps have to work with this year. For example, the Portland Trail Blazers have these tools to work with: 5 draft picks (24, 32, 38, 55, and 56), approximately $6.5 Million under the salary cap (which is a number that won’t be exact until the NBA calculates the exact cap figure based on this year’s revenue), a $3 Million Trade Exception (from a trade at the deadline), plus they own the rights to a couple young guys playing in Europe right now.

Secondly, the Raptors need to decide what they’ll do in Free-Agency, how much money they have to work with and who they’ll try to resign off their current roster. Finally, a decision should be made (and probably has been) as to the direction of the team. One of your readers commented that he wanted to take DeMar DeRozan because in the long run he’d be the best player and one argument I had made was to trade down and take a more mature player who could contribute now (Sam Young, Terrance Williams, Gerald Henderson). There are a few things to consider here, first, rookie contracts usually only last 3-4 years so to wait for a guy to come along means the direction you are taking is ‘player development and cost saving’ in that you most likely won’t spend a lot in free agency trying to make a run for the playoffs. If you are like the Blazers coming off 50 plus wins, you are seeing your window of opportunity now and thus feel spending money gives you a chance to win. Aiming for the achievement of your goals now rather than player development for future success. Veteran FA’s worth any considerable value are not going to sign with a club that is developing a young roster. Look at Memphis and Oklahoma City, young talent that is not winning regularly versus the Boston Celtics who went out and got veteran FA’s by working the cap and draft picks to come up with assets to win now.

Finally, another reader mentioned the idea of trading up. I also mentioned this with respect to James Harden if he is your guy. I don’t have any problems with this either IF you feel strongly that Harden is your guy and you have the ability (assets) to make it happen such as multiple 2nd Rd. picks to unload. There have been considerable rumors that 2, 3, 4 could move because after Blake Griffin it is somewhat wide open. Perhaps the Raps see that window and make a move. However, until we know what assets the Raptors have to work with and the direction they want to take the franchise then it’s going to be difficult to get a good gauge on what they will do.

A few random notes from the combine and recent team workouts:

• One Raptor fan liked Tyreke Evans for his length and thus his ‘potential defensive ability’, which is outstanding. But potential is a scary word sometimes and it should be noted that he had the slowest feet in the agility test which is a good measurable for defensive potential as well. Can you see now why I’m not a huge fan of these ‘combine stats’?
• A lot has been made of DeRozan’s superior athleticism but if you look at those infamous ‘combine stats’ you’ll see that he has one great mark when compared to the Small Forwards, his max vertical leap (with steps = 38.5″ the same as Chase Budinger). However, because he has short arms he falls to 9th of 11 SF’s in jump reach nearly 5 inches below James Johnson or Damion James. Worse yet, the only player he beat in the footwork and speed tests was 6’11 Austin Daye. And if he had been compared to the SG group, DeRozan would have been dead last in both categories out of 16 guys. His 11.88 agility score would have been .3 tenths of a second slower than 15 other SG’s and 1.4 seconds slower than the fastest SG. Short arms and slow feet, who will he be guarding? Just some food for thought.
• Sam Young participated in a recent NBA group workout and dominated according to sources.
• Another guy I mentioned in the last post was Ohio State big man BJ Mullens. Apparently both he and Austin Daye (Gonzaga) looked great in ‘camp drills’ in Chicago because they didn’t have to play 5-on-5, but both have struggled in workouts against physical defense. Mullens just played in Minnesota and was abused by Luke Neville (an Aussie from the University of Utah) who many say won’t be drafted. And yet Mullens is coming out of school early and a projected lottery pick? On a positive note, the 7’1 260 big man did post a ‘quicker’ time than DeRozan in the agility drill.

Q. Are there any differences from scouting via Video/TV as opposed to live?
A. Pro’s and con’s to both I’m sure. In live situations you definitely get a good feel for the guy physically, what his body is like, his true height and so forth. You can also see his attitude and leadership abilities up close. How he reacts to calls, opposing fans, his coaches, and his teammates. On film, such as Synergy Video, you can see so much footage that you can really get a feel for what the guy does best, what his favorite moves are, and also what some of his weaknesses are because you could potentially watch every shot he took this season. One thing you always have to be careful of, especially in a combine style workout or a closed workout session is falling in love with a prospect based on that one day. See him live as much as possible and then study as much video as you can.

Q. Who will be available at 9? Who will be the best available player at 9?
A. It’s still too early to tell at this point but I think there will be some good players available at this spot. Keep in mind, last year some guys made very late surges into the lottery such as Russell Westbrook climbing to the 4th spot (OKC), Joe Alexander went 8th (Bucks), and Jason Thompson from Rider 12th (Kings). Anthony Randolph went 14th to the Warriors after being rumored in the top 5 then slipping on some boards to late-first. The point being, decisions are still being made and there are a lot of young guys on the draft board as well as the possibility of guys returning to school. We’ll also learn more about the international guys after the upcoming Euro Camp in Treviso, Italy. Remember that Danilo Gallinari shot up to 6th last year to the NY Knicks. This is something we’ll cover more in the coming weeks.

Q. Is Blake Griffin more a Beasley or Duncan?
A. I don’t think he’s like either one to be honest. He’s 2 inches and 12 pounds bigger than Beasley but not as long or skilled (at least now) as Tim Duncan. He is a true Power Forward in the ‘power’ sense. He is strong, explosive, aggressive, and very quick for his size. He is much more athletic than Duncan but will he develop the head for the game that Duncan has? Beasley is more of a face-up guy and I think Griffin will be a solid post-up option as well as a good pick & roll guy and he can run the floor well also. I’m not putting him in the Hall of Fame just yet but he does have some Karl Malone like features.

Hijo de puta!

Q. Who is the next best player in the Draft?
A. The million dollar question, literally. Again, based on results or potential? I like Ricky Rubio and James Harden a lot. I get why people like Hasheem Thabeet with his obvious size and length, but I’m not a huge fan. So if you are the Memphis Grizzlies and you have Mike Conley and OJ Mayo, do you pick Rubio or Harden or trade down? Perhaps they like Thabeet and go that route. I’m a proponent of picking a guy if you feel strongly about him at that spot, if not, trade down and stockpile players and picks. This may the year to do just that.

Q. Who’s your favorite (sentimental) player in the Draft?
A. As you know, I like international players and REALLY like what the Colangelo’s did in Phoenix bringing in Mike D’Antoni, Steve Nash, and that style of play. So needless to say I’m a Rubio fan and look forward to seeing how that situation plays out. You’ve probably read some of the latest rumblings that he’s willing to stay another year in Spain if he’s not a top 3 pick and I think a lot of that is the negotiations taking place with his Agent and Club (Joventut).

From a basketball standpoint I like his leadership skills for such a young guy, he’s very competitive, has good hand skills and vision and is better athletically than he gets credit for. He is a very good defender and has long arms. He does need to work on his shooting and range, but that should develop with time. A lot of guys from that Spanish team have come to the NBA and done well so I see no reason why he wouldn’t do the same.

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