The Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back, and rolling into Indiana (9-9) who are two games ahead of the Raptors for 7th in the East. Yes, the Raptors currently hold the 8th playoff seed; half a game ahead of Milwaukee. Could be a nice win for the Raptors who play the Knicks again on Wednesday and will be looking to exact some revenge after yesterdays loss.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Peja Stojakovic – Out

Indiana
Niente

Match-ups

Point Guard
I guess that settled that: Jose Calderon is the better PG. Since Jack got moved, Calderon has been averaging 10pts 8.6ast; numbers approaching the levels that had us all saying he was a top flight point guard when he got that big contract. The good news is that Jose is playing like the Jose we all know he can play like, the bad news is that he has another speedy point guard to deal with tonight in Darren Collison, who the Pacers landed in a damn good deal for themselves in the summer (only cost them Troy Murphy).

Collison was one of the prizes of the summer, and Bird somehow managed to engineer a trade that opened up playing time for Hibbert to shine, and land the point guard he desired, all in one-swoop; not to bad! Darren sees the court very welle, and is able to create off the dribble. He wont kill us from the perimeter, but his jumper is pretty good, have to get a hand up on him and things should work out. I like the energy Jose’s been-bringing on defense; hasn’t been stellar, but he’s not making it easy for the other point guard either. I’d like to see him continue that and make Collison beat the Raptors with his jumper and not his play-making when he gets going.

Should be noted that Collison is a pretty good defender, so Jose can expect to be tested on both ends of the floor.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
It’s going to be a long night for DeRozan/Barbosa, I just have a feeling. Dunleavy seems to be one of those guys that always gets up to play against the Raptors. Fortunately for us he comes off the bench, and DeMar will have to deal with Rush for longer stretches. Rush was one of the guys we wanted to draft when we drafted Hibbert (talk about this later on) and traded to Indiana for Jermaine O’Neal *shudder*. The kid is very athletic, blocks shots, and a solid defender on the perimeter. DeMar will be wise to attack him as he has some intensity issues that render him useless at points; something DeMar knows all too well.

There are massive match-up issues for Barbosa when he’s in with Dunleavy, this is where Triano/Carlessimo have to get creative with their line-juggling, but Barbosa can’t defend Dunleavy; and neither can Dunleavy guard Barbosa. Depending on who’s playing, the Raptors can have the advantage in this match-up. The Pacers are a big team overall, so unless the Raptors small-ball unit is playing off the chain, it will tough to get Barbosa playing time at the shooting guard. Bayless could see reduced minutes tonight as Barbosa would most likely get some of his minutes at the back-up PG.
Edge: Indiana

Small Forward
The wing situation is going to be a rough one for the Raptors tonight, where the Pacers are deeper than the Raptors, and able to throw different looks at us all night. Fortunately Weems (and DeRozan) have both started to play a little better the last couple games. Weems especially is finishing aggressively around the rim, when he’s actually engaged in the game. Granger is approaching elite-level scorer status the last couple seasons, and could easily go off for 35 (although we’ve been able to manage him rather nicely the last couple years).

I’m sure Posey’s good for a 3 pointer, if that…maybe he’s not, but the guy is a serviceable back-up off the bench in limited playing time; he’s a two-time world champion, that counts for something at the end of the day. The key will be to play Granger hard on both ends, and getting him into foul trouble. Since Weems is one of the two best finishers on team with a head of steam, running it at Danny can prove effective since he’s a tweener on defense who likes to swat balls (he’s not a bad shot blocker either, but you can’t block them all). Weems needs to rebound from a gawdawful game against the Knicks yesterday, and wont have an easy time of it. Still, he’s shown some resilience so far.

As an aside, I’ve lost confidence in Kleiza. It’s not that he can’t be a good player for the Raptors, as a spot up shooter off the bench he could still be a solid contributor, but he’s taking on too much and can’t deliver. Maybe Karl had it right with his usage in Denver…
Edge: Indiana

Power Forward
Amir has really stepped up in Reggies absence, with a couple monster games. He’s been able to play under control and not get foul happy which leads me to believe that the coaching is getting through to him. The Pacers front court isn’t very strong after the starters, McRoberts is a good shooter from the perimeter, but can’t handle Johnson in the block on either end of the floor. I expect to see situational match-ups with Josh covering Bargnani, which will only lead to more trouble for the Pacers.

On Amir, McRoberts can’t defend and is a poor rebounder for his size; all the makings for a 20/10 night for our Young One. Ed Davis is making some significant contributions given that he’s coming off a pretty brutal injury. I’m really liking this kid a lot, and he too will have an advantage against Josh on the glass and in the quickness department.
Edge: Toronto

Center
Like I said earlier, the Raptors front court is better than the Pacers. Hibbert, much like McRoberts, is a big lumbering player who can’t keep up with either Bargnani or Johnson (or Davis or Dorsey). He does, however, pose some problems since he’s a traditional center who can score from 15ft-in. Bargnani didn’t play heavy minutes yesterday (33), so he should have the legs to get after Hibbert and/or McRoberts, doesn’t really matter who’s covering him tonight, he will own.

His rebounding has improved, and should be able to contribute on that front. My only hope is that Jeff Foster doesn’t find the fountain of youth and make an impact off the bench; he’s really feasted on the Raptors front court over the years with his hustle and grit.

The Raptors front-court has the horses to really make a positive impact on this game; had this not been the second night of a back-to-back, it could have gotten messy for the Pacers.
Edge: Toronto

Side Note:
Does it upset no one else that the Pacers have two players, Granger and Hibbert, who by all rights should be a Raptor, that are thriving at positions that we currently need filled? Anyone?

Keys to the Game

Don’t get Down Early
The Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back, so they need to use their energy effectively, and not to play catch-up; the game could be put away early if they come out flat. To Triano’s credit, he managed minutes pretty well last night, so the Raps won’t be totally worn out to start the game. The easiest way to stay in the game will be to pound the ball into Amir and Bargnani (depending on match-up and court positioning) and let them molest the Pacers front court. Getting into an up-and-down match to start the game may prove difficult to sustain and put them into a hole.

As always, the 3rd quarter push will be crucial, so catching a collective second wind at the half will be important. Jose might want to go back to handing out Gatorade in the locker room; seemed to help.

Rebounding
This would have been a perfect game for Reggie’s hustle, he could have easily grabbed 17 rebounds against a slow footed Pacer front court.

The Pacers are 3rd in the league in rebounding, with the whole team chipping in on the glass. Boxing out and crashing the boards should be the minimum requirement to see the floor tonight. Anything Bargnani can give us above 6 rebounds will be massive.

Perimeter Defense
Two words: Julian Wright; the kid Is our best defender on the perimeter, and can help. He’s clearly not the answer, but he has the size, length and athleticism to both all three of Granger, Rush and Dunleavy. Won’t hurt, right?

Make Your Free Throws
The Raptors went 11-22 from the line yesterday against the Knicks. Not saying if they hit them they would have won (they wouldn’t have), but they could have changed the complexion of the game. 50% from the the charity stripe is unacceptable.

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Some games you just lose, I don’t know why, and you go on from there…We pretty much have to beat every team, that’s how I feel. I take a loss as a loss…You lose too many and you get tired of taking a positive out of a negative.

I like hearing that from Bosh, the man is all about business this year.

The Raptors host Indiana on the first night of a back-to-back, and it leaves a bad taste in my mouth to say so, but we have to take this one. Indiana is currently sitting a half game ahead of us, holding on to the 8th spot in the East. Since we sit a game and a half ahead of Charlotte, the next two games are crucial for the Raptors if they intend to make the playoffs. They have to beat these types of teams.

Match-ups

The Point: You all know I was (still am) in Ford’s corner when the Forderon controversy erupted two seasons ago, but you have to feel for the guy. He lost his starting role, on two different teams, to two different players he has to match-up with today. He’s having a decent season, but from what I’ve seen (through limited exposure), he hasn’t hit his groove in Indiana. Regardless, he will be a handful tonight. When he takes Calderon off the dribble, he will have lots of options to kick out to for a good shot. I actually like Calderon/Jack in this match-up, but TJ’s speed, and playmaking ability can’t be slept on.
The Edge: Toronto

The Skill: With Belinelli and Wright questionable, DeRozan will have little relief chasing Jones around the court. While some thought that DeRozan played passable defense on both Wade and Carter, I think we can all agree that it wont be getting any easier for our boy as the season continues. Jones is having a career year and is a nice defensive player. I thought he was a great pick-up by Indiana in the off-season, and he hasn’t disappointed with a career year so far. As long as DeRozan slashes to the rim, grabs some boards, and stays in front of Jones, he should be alright. He wont win this match-up, but he can play Jones tight.
The Edge: Indiana

The Wing: This will be an interesting match-up. Granger is a high-volume shooter, he is quick off the hop, and likes those threes. Hedo has done a great job of distributing the ball over the last few games, and can really put a hurt on the Pacers off of the pick-n-roll with Bosh.
The Edge: Even

The Power: Don’t like this match-up for one reason: Murphy will be pulling Bosh away from the basket on defense, leaving defensive rebounding in the incapable hands of Bargnani. Murphy is a poor man’s Chris Bosh, but he’s slow. Bosh can attack him on offense, and should. With our boy coming off a 5 rebound showing against Orlando, and what he’s been saying in practice the last two days, I expect him to come out like gangbusters.
The Edge: Toronto

The Big: Foster is being inserted in the starting lineup to counter Bargnani’s quickness. Hibbert wouldn’t have been able to keep up with our boy. Great call by O’Brien. For all the points Bargnani will score, I shudder to think of all the rebounds and cheap garbage points he will concede to Foster. I don’t like this match-up one bit.
The Edge: Indiana

Injury Report

Raptors
Reggie Evans
Marco Belinelli *
Antoine Wright *

Pacers
Mike Dunleavy
Travis Diener

The Line

The Raptors are -5 with an over/under of 213.

The Prediction

Visser‘s sims are 11-3 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 114-94 Raptor win.

As far as my prediction: It wont be a walk in the park, but the Raptors have this one, not in the bag, but they should pull it out: 106-98.

I didn’t see the game, but the loss to Chicago cheapened the effort the Raps gave against the Celtics. All-in-all, three losses in a row doesn’t sit nicely with me, regardless of who they come against. For all the progress Bargnani has made, his efforts seem to be wasted since the Raptors don’t go to him during crunch time. He has shown the ‘look’ and ability to take those tough clutch shots (dating back to his rookie season).

With the Raptors heading into Indiana, and the specter of O’Neal rejoining the team looming, the Raptors enter into a potentially dark stretch of unknowns where team chemistry could potentially be thrown under the wheel. With absolutely no news over the last couple weeks, O’Neal has been absent from the bench while he gets ‘treatment’. Apparently it was getting the right anti-inflammatory drugs, so the master plan has come full-circle. The severity of his injury has not been disclosed, but all of a sudden, with a road games against the Pacers, the chatter of him joining the team has begun. He is saying the right things about his role on the team, but saying and doing are two different things.

The Pacers are the owners of the toughest schedule of any team in the NBA thus far. They have gone through a changing of the guard with the dispatch of O’Neal, and the emergence of Granger as a solid NBA talent who can put up points from the wing. TJ Ford has even won them a few games on his back.

Fresh off a home win against the Pistons, Indiana must be feeling good. Although Jack has replaced Ford in the starting 5, it was TJ who sparked the win against the Pistons with a solid 23pt 6reb 4ast game. In his last game against the Raptors, he had a poor showing, but this can be attributed to the excitement of coming back to the ACC for the first time. I imagine tonight will be his redemption. He might even start, which would

The Raptors? They lost 3 in a row. They suck, and there is no reason to think otherwise, it’s not Alice Fine. It seems they are tanking their way to the lottery, and I’m good with that. Hopefully some rash moves aren’t made in the meantime that will set AltRaps on a murderous rampage. seriously, I’d be afraid of him if he gets mad, big dude.

“I made the mistake of picking my dribble up after he cut off the baseline,” Bosh said. “It’s not going to be the last time we’re in a situation like that, or I’m in a situation like that. You just learn from it and keep going.”

Learn? He does this all the time. He picks up his dribble all the time in favour of jacking a jumper. I’ve learned he hasn’t learned not to do this.

The Match-up

Solomon vs Jack
The Edge: Toronto – Solomon has been a pleasant surprise since JC went down. He has played under control, taken relatively good shots and has minimized his jump-passing. Maybe I’m just settling here because Roko can’t play a full game (30+ min) yet, but he hasn’t been frustrating me as much as he used too. Jack on the other hand has been a bit of a disappointment for me since leaving Georgia Tech. He’s not a bad player by any stretch, but he isn’t great, he’s just good. Solomon should be able to take him off the bounce, and Roko should have no problem dropping the tear drop over him in the paint.

Parker vs Dunleavy
The Edge: Indiana – Dunleavy is coming into his own. I’m a big fan of him, the kid has talent, makes good decisions and is a match-up nightmare at the 2, Parker will have his hands full, there is no doubt. I predict a huge game for Dunleavy (25+pts 8+rebs 5+ast). Sending a double will open up Granger for even better looks. Parker will have to stay at home on Dunleavy, and not allow him to open space for Granger. This is a key match-up for this game.

Moon vs Granger
The Edge: Indiana – Granger was G*d awful last game at the ACC. He missed a ton of shots and effectively took himself out of the game. This wont be the case again. As good as Moon has recently played, Granger has played loads better. The wing spot is going to kill the Raptors tonight, especially if Ford (or Jack if he doesn’t start) is on. Dribble penetration galore.

Bosh vs Murphy
The Edge: Toronto* – The asterik is because Murphy grabbed 87 rebounds the last time around, his offense was limited, but he hit the boards something fierce. This will be even more crucial at home since they are fresh off a win and are feeling good about themselves. Bosh needs to make a huge commitment to boxing out and crashing the boards tonight. 10 boards isn’t going to cut. He needs to grab 12+. A good way to take Murphy out of the game is for him not to shoot it, but drive to the rack, every single freaking time. Also, don’t forget NOT to pick up your dribble when a lane closes, you’re an Olympian, you can figure something.

Bargnani vs Foster
The Edge: Toronto* – Another asterisk, since Foster has been a Raptor killer as far back as I can remember. Active bigs who run around and crash the boards, with little regard to having plays called for them kil the Raps. I expect Voshkul and Hump to contribute in this department during relief time. The good news is that with VL on the perimeter, he will keep Foster away from the boards. Bargs has been doing a pretty decent job on the defensive boards as well, a real commitment needs to be made here.

The Line

VegasInsider.com has the spread at Indiana -4.0 with an o/u of 213.5. Safe bet here.

The Prediction

Pacers. Raptors probably should win given their advantage up front, but dribble penetration and the wings are going to kill us tonight.

Come join us at Philthy’s tonight for Raptor Fan Friday’s, and you might even catch Arse dancing on the table after he gets jacked up on jalepeno poppers.

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