Things wont be getting any easier; Magic today, Knicks tomorrow, tough match-ups all around. The Raptors are maintaining a consistent level of effort defensively, but their offense is killing them. I’m sure Casey’s on the job…

Unlike the Nuggets, who had the hooplah of the Carmelo Anthony fiasco bleed onto their play on-court, the Magic have started the season 3-1, with their only loss coming against the Thunder; no shame there.

I had a chance to speak to Eddy Rivera from Magic Basketball about the Magic:

True or False: the Magic, as currently constructed, are championship contenders.

False. The Orlando Magic desperately need a dynamic shot creator on the perimeter and the bench is rather thin. Likewise, the Magic just don’t have the star power that teams like the Miami Heat have. That being said, with Ryan Anderson emerging at power forward, Hedo Turkoglu looking like his 2009 self, Orlando may have new life but it’s still early.

I’m wondering what the strategy is for Dwight Howard. Surely, if Smith wants to keep him, resigning Jason Richardson and trading for his BFF Glen Davis wont cut it, right? Also, was the Glen Davis move as stupid as I think it was?

The strategy behind re-signing Richardson and trading for Davis is to allow the Magic to compete in the event Howard leaves. It’s not smart but with an 85-year old owner that’s gunning for a championship one more time, it’s understandable. And yes, the Bass-for-Davis swap was a bad one. Each player has their flaws but Bass is better.

Will Dwight Howard be a Magic come the end of the season?

Maybe. I still think Howard will ultimately be traded to the Lakers because they offer the best “win now” assets. However, I don’t think it’s set in stone that Howard is gone. Deep down inside, Howard genuinely would like to stay with Orlando but the franchise needs to give him a reason to do so.

Match-ups

Point Guard
With Bayless a game-time decision, Calderon will have to pick it up a notch. It will be tough to play him larger minutes than normal, what with the Knicks tomorrow, but Anthony Carter isn’t much of an insurance policy. The Magic are deep at the PG, not great, but deep. Jameer Nelson is also listed as day-to-day with a neck injury. Unfortunately, even if the Raptors utterly exploit this position, it still will be an uphill battle.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
If Barbosa has to play some backup PG to Calderon, there will be a lot of pressure on DeMar to hold it down against a very deep SG lineup for the Magic. An area where the Raptors still need some work is perimeter defensive rotations (closing out on open shooters behind the arc). Between Jason Richardson and JJ Redick, any extra open space they have will result in a trey.
Edge: Magic

Small Forward
It’s depressing how weak we are at the 3-spot; lets just say Turkoglu is producing more than all our 3s combined, yea.
Edge: Magic

Power Forward
That Vince Carter trade they made a couple seasons ago was a phenomenal haul for the Magic. Ryan Anderson, seemingly, was thrown in as a salary matching after-thought (I’m sure Otis Smith knew what he was doing ). Historically, the Raptors had success against the Magic because Bargnani’s production would counter Howards. Now with Ryan Anderson putting up 19.5pts 6.5rebs 43%3P in addition to whatever Howard puts up in the middle.
Edge: Even

Center
Howard > Johnson + Magloire + Alabi. A success today, in my books, will be if Magloire comes down with a rebound, elbows up, and catches Glen Davis in the mouth.
Edge: Magic

The Line

The gamblers have the Magic as 11.5 points favourites with an over/under of 190. I’m not hopeful for today; actually, I’m never hopeful against the Magic yet the Raptors always find a way to surprise. The Magic have always had trouble defending Bargnani in the past. It’s not going to be a pretty one, I’d bet the line.

Alabi:

Barbosa:

Bargnani:

Bayless:

Calderon:

Davis:

DeRozan:

Dorsey:

Evans:

Gaines:  

Johnson:

Kleiza:

Weems:

Wright:

Driving The Bus: DeMar DeRozan

Under The Bus: Jose Calderon

Game Theme:

The team that beat the Magic in Orlando earlier in the season is a far better one than the one rolling into town now; never mind that the Magic are also a much better team now. Don’t expect the same result, I can’t stress this enough.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Out
Sonny Weems  - Out
Linas Kleiza – Day to day

Orlando
Malik Allen – Day to day
Jameer Nelson – Day tod ay

Match-ups

Point Guard
For anyone who didn’t get concerned about the Magic after the two big trades: you haven’t been paying attention. While the Arenas trade may have been unnecessary, and potentially has hurt the front court depth, you can’t deny that having multiple playmakers come playoff time is crucial. It frees up Nelson from the burden of playmaking, to scoring and swinging the ball. After a few games to adjust, Jameer is shooting 48% from behind the arc in January while averaging 6.4ast. 60% of his shots come outside of 18feet. What’s interesting is how he’s getting those assists; on average, 2.5 ofthem result in a three, and 2.2 of them at the rim. So two-thirds of his passes result in some sort of open-look off that high screen.

The lame use of stats is meant to illustrate what kind of battle Jose should expect tonight: Jameer likes the perimeter. Leaving him to double will result in an open look that he’s all too happy to take, or even worse, when Jose runs to close him out, he blows by him and puts pressure on our defense in the paint where the options of what to do are limitless since everyone is worried about Howard.

You can officially put me in the “don’t trade Jose unless you get something really valuable back” camp. One of the best parts of this season has been-being able to sit through a game and not be upset about the effort; Jose is a big reason for that. In January, the kid is averaging 12pts 11ast; coming 1 rebound shy of a triple-double against the Wizards. With so much history since the last year we were in the playoffs, there’s going to be some nice back-and-forth with these two. I haven’t even mentioned Arenas, who frankly, I’ve expected a bit more from since the trade. The good news for the Raptors is that he pretty much spends all his time on the arc hoping to jack it up. Not sure if he’s fully recovered from that injury a few years ago, but he doesn’t seem to like to put the ball on the floor and take his man off the dribble. I’ve got my eye on this Gaines kid, who’s quickly playing Bayless out of some minutes.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
This is where things start to go really wrong for the Raptors.  It took a few weeks to get used to a totally different system than what he enjoyed in Phoenix, but Jason Richardson hasn’t lost a step. He must be relishing playing for a contender after getting to the conference finals last year. Half his shots (in a Magic uniform) come from behind the arc, and 94% of those are assisted. The guy is a catch and shoot player, and hits them rather efficiently, 44% since being traded from the Suns. Where DeMar can hurt him is off the dribble and in transition where Richardson lateral movements limit his defensive effectiveness.

I like the Raptors offense much better with DeMar as the focal point. He’s attacking the basket off the dribble, and picking his spots to take an 18 foot jumper. The shot still doesn’t inspire 100% confidence in me, but all that work in the gym seems to be paying off. If I’m DeMar, I’d be on the phone with Dave Hopla for some private shooting instruction, doesn’t even matter what it costs; he’ll more than make up for it on his next contract if he develops a consistent mid-range game.

As much as I appreciate DeRozan’s recent emergence, he needs to work harder at other aspects the game. He has the physical/athletic prowess to be a tremendous defensive player for the Raptors on the wing. One area of immediate improvement could be his ball distribution when he drives through the paint and gets doubled; passing to an open shooter could rack up easy assists for him.
Edge: Magic

Small Forward
The Turkoglu we played in the win against the Suns won’t be the same one we play tonight in Orlando. This one thrives in half-court offenses that afford him room and space to create for others off that high pick-n-roll. He’s not the same Hedo that went to the NBA finals either, but a triple-double and a 17 assist game since coming back can’t be overlooked.

I worry about the pick-n-roll defense, since Bargnani will struggle to both hedge on Hedo, as well as defend a rolling Howard. There will be lots of defensive slack for Julian Wright to pick up, and he needs to be up for the task. I like that Wright is long and can fight through screens a bit more aggressively then we’ve become accustomed too.

Wright (and Kleiza if he’s healthy) will also have to battle Hedo on the boards where he does a great job of complimenting Howard. Full Disclosure: even though I felt like a dirty traitor, I picked up Hedo on waivers, and he’s done very well for me. The guy contributes all over the map, with the only knock being he doesn’t play defense at a high-level.

Oh yea, watch the three; he’s been shooting it at over 44% since getting traded.
Edge: Magic

Power Forward
I really thought Johnson and Davis would bring the goods against the Spurs, and to a degree they did, but they clearly got their butts handed to them on a platter by Dajuan Blair, who’s an absolute beast. Notwithstanding Blair, the Raps front court did a pretty good job (minus Bargnani’s contribution).

Tell me you don’t like the pairing of Amir and Ed Up front. Defense and rebounding aren’t an issue, with the offense looking a bit more fluid with DeRozan taking the lions share of the responsibility. I appreciate them putting it all on the floor, and growing into their roles as guys who contribute across the board as important role players (Davis might prove to be more given the chance, Amir is what he is).

I’m willing to bet that Amir/Ed will be checking Howard during key stretches of the game, and probably doing a better job of it than Bargs. I also like Howard checking either of them on defense, since they live in the paint, and can substitute in and out quickly to give Dwight fresh legs to constantly deal with. Not saying they will score on him at will, but they are active and could force Dwight into some early foul trouble.
Edge: Toronto

Center
It gave me the warm-fuzzies when Triano decided to flex some coaching muscle, and benching Bargnani when it was clear he was hurting the team. Lets hope Bargnani got the message loud and clear. That said, Bargnani isn’t the kind of the player who can fall back on other aspects of his game when the shots aren’t falling. 90% of his effectiveness comes from his scoring, and if he’s not shooting well, then he’s as useless as Arsenalist cruising at Hemingways on a Friday night.

The shot needs to be there tonight from the tip, since Bass/Anderson have no chance checking him on the perimeter. He can shoot over both, and back both down into the paint for short turn-around-half-hooks. Even off the dribble, no one on the Magic can check the guy. He’s got so much offensive ability, it’s really comical he doesn’t average 25 a game consistently. A lot of that comes from his sick tendencies of stepping inside the arc and launching low percentage jumpers; his efficiency crashes when this happens.
Edge: Magic

Keys to the Game

Defend the Pick-n-Roll Aggressively
It’s going to come hard, and with a lot of furry.  The guy being screened will have to fight through them, and the guy defending the picker will have to hedge and buy some time for the defense to recover and set itself.

Perimeter Defense
Dwight Howard commands so much attention, that Magic shooters get a lot of looks, good ones, from the perimeter. Pick-n-roll defense is one aspect of this, another is how many doubles we through at Howard in the paint. The Magic are surprisingly 25th in the league in assists, so their offense is a lot of catch-and-shoots, which doesn’t give a lot of time for defensive rotations to play catch-up.

Don’t Give Hedo any Satisfaction
Easier said than done with the team he’s playing on, but I don’t want to see him smiling and laughing it up because of he’s on route to a triple-double.

The Line

The gamblers have the Magic as 11.5 point favourites, with an over/under of 207. The Magic play a slow pace, but are deliberate and damn efficient at it. The Raptors can’t spot them 10 points to start the game, since they will grind the game to slower pace, and pick us apart. Not much hope here tonight; just need to play our game and keep developing good habits. Since we got the Heat tomorrow night, you might see Triano shut things down if the Magic run away with this early to keep guys as fresh as possible for Bosh & co.

Alabi: if you are a travel agent, please click here if you are hoping to land Alabi’s business for the next, oh, 2 months or so.

Andersen: bad sushi or he just read a few articles over on Bleacher Report, either way he didn’t make it to the arena.

Banks: last seen at the Magic Kingdom hanging with Mickey, checking out the sweet new Snow Princess.

Barbosa: still not able to perform. Kind of like Colangelo by himself on a draft night.

Bargnani: I have come to realize that Andrea is like me at Muzik. I walk in, looking sharp, working the ladies in the room into a lather by my skills, then as the night wears on, I start to tire and when the moment of truth comes, I couldn’t get a shot off to save my life, instead I just roll over. After the catastrophe the other night, he started tonight el fuego and had 21 points in the first half, missing only one FGA in the 2nd quarter. Then the fourth quarter happened. Nothing fell and his combination of porous defence and poorest offence allowed the Magic back in.

Calderon: the man down the stretch, in tandem with Jack. His steal on the in-bounds saved the game for us, the elbow he took from Dwight was worthy of a purple heart, and the fact that Nelson didn’t make him turn into a pile of ash for once is nothing short of miraculous.

Davis: must have felt strange wearing the warm-ups. Unfortunately the first time he wears them for real will feature a hawk on them, not the red and white.

DeRozan: a career night in points that was brought on by being aggressive yet patient. He picked his spots, got to the line, and clinched the deal in the end. Great stuff.

Dorsey: Lil’ Dwight played with lil’ effort and lil’ production. Bringing him aboard was a lil’ mistake.

Evans: when I saw what seemed to be him ripping into his own teammates from the other end of the floor, from the BENCH, in the early stages of this game, I knew he’d be a monster. He may not have had the huge numbers he’s had in a few games, but this is probably in his top 2 performances as a Raptor. He was like the stungun needle in Dwight’s neck most of the night. He played Evans possibly the best I’ve ever seen a Raptor play him and, dare I say, he outworked the potential MVP. Stunning.

Jack: efficient and smart. What else do you need from your starting PG? Old record, but head in the game = something positive. The play to get Weems the ball in the fourth was a stroke of genius and he ran it like he should: like a pro.

Johnson: another guy that was hitting everything in the middle stretch of his game. May just be me, but he seemed to tire a little bit, or check out. He reverted back to easy fouls, but they were good fouls as long as they were on Howard. One of his better games this season, but that’s like saying a strawberry without mould is a better strawberry.

Kleiza: where do I get me a pair of ‘dem red-horseshoes-on-the-back-pockets jeans he’s wearing?  Snazzy.

Weems: Chiclets Jr. was money indeed. Huge shot for his NBA resume on a night he got the starting nod. Loved how he was shown intently listening to the defensive play call immediately afterward, not partyplanning with the rest of his cowboys. Solid night that featured a few quick bursts from him, something he needs to bring to the table more.

Wright: the guy is like Demi Moore. Just looking at him, you want to like the guy. Then you go see most of his movies/plays and your face looks like you just downed a pint of Buckley’s. Then comes the topless scene in amongst 120 other horrible minutes and you fall in love. Julian showed a little nip tonight. He was a less cocky and better skilled Jamario Moon and he stepped up in a game where every little bit contributed to a big win.

Driving The Bus: DeMar DeRozan

Under The Bus: Joey Dorsey

Game Theme :

The Raptors have it tough for the next 10 days; four of the next six games are against playoff teams, and three of those teams are elite. It kicks off tonight in Orlando and it’s not going to be a pretty one. We’ve talked ad nauseam about what this team is (isn’t) capable of, how good (or bad) certain players are, and the job security of one coach. What we need to consider is that this season is a wash. The Raptors aren’t good enough to do anything, and the lineup shouldn’t be tinkered with to fight for a playoff spot because it will jeopardize the teams future in doing so.

Khandor hit the nail on the head with his piece after the Bobcats game:

COMPONENTS OF A GOOD LOSS FOR THE RAPTORS THIS SEASON

1. Their opponent is a team with more NBA level talent on their roster than Toronto.
2. The game’s final outcome is only decided in the last 30 seconds of play.
3. At no point during the game does Toronto fall behind by more than 10 points.
4. At no point during the game does Toronto go ahead by more than 15 points.
5. DeMar DeRozan and Ed Davis – only once he is 100% healthy, again – receive at least 20+ minutes of PT, including at the start of quarters #1 and #3, plus during the last 6 minutes of quarter #4 [and, in any overtime session which might be played].

The long term objective for the Toronto Raptors this season should be focused, exclusively, on obtaining the future rights to a Top 3 Pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Anything which, in fact, moves the team closer to achieving THIS specific goal next summer is a good thing for this franchise heading towards the future.

Something to think about.

Life got in the way, and I got stood up by the Orlando blogger, but here are the questions I asked (I’ll update this with his answers if he gets them to me today):

1. What’s going on with Rashard Lewis? Vince Carter got a lot of flack for his poorish performance in the playoffs, but Lewis was just as bad, averaging 12.9pts 5.6rebs 2.3ast. His play has seemed to seep into this season. I’m clearly missing something.
2. Jameer Nelson has been a big part of this team’s recent success, but his injuries make it difficult for the team to be consistent (shuffling guys here and there). Williams and Duhon are capable backups, but seriously. At what point does Otis Smith say “enough’s enough” and go out and make a splash to upgrade the point?
3. A lot has been said about Gortat and Bass not being happy with their playing time. Gortat especially didn’t seem happy the Magic matched the contract Dallas extended him. I’m not sure where I’m going with this, but they could be valuable pieces to upgrade this roster; please comment.
4. Even though they lost the first meeting with Miami, I like how this teams matches up against them. The Celtics on the other hand could pose some big problems. What are Orlando’s prospects of getting back into the finals this year?
5. Almost a joke to ask, but what is the strategy coming in against the Raptors?

Injury Report

Toronto
Jarrett Jack – Sore Knee, Will Play
Reggie Evans – Bruised Left Hip, Gametime Decision
Linas Kleiza – Achilles, Doubtful
Leandro Barbosa – Shoulder, Out
Ed Davis – Out

Orlando
Jameer Nelson – Hurting, Will Play
Vince Carter – LOL, Will Play

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Nelson
The guys been killing our PG’s for years: he’s quick enough to beat them off the dribble, strong enough to knock them off tilt and hits every single bloody shot he takes against us. It’s very frustrating. He is coming back from an injury, but it didn’t stop him from playing well against the Jazz (even though the team lost) chipping in 19pts 7ast. Based on everything we’ve seen so far this season, I don’t see how Jack/Calderon have any chance tonight. Might be nice to see Banks get some run and step up defensively, but we know that’s not going to happen; why would it?
Edge: Nelson

SG – DeRozan vs Carter
After starting the season strong, he has utterly fallen apart the last three games, averaging 4.3pts 2.7rebs while shooting 33% from the field. Yes, the match-ups weren’t in his favour, but since when is that an excuse to put up Marcus Banks numbers? Carter owns us. Period. He might be in the twilight of his career, but he still can light it up, and is actually playing efficiently all things considered (52%FG 44%3FG 20.68PER). Only Amir Johnson is as productive as Carter with a PER of 21.39. It’s a nice game for DeMar to come out of his funk from, since VC wont be able to keep up with him if he gets going. Like most nights, he has the tools to make life difficult for folks, it’s just a matter of being focused and having your head in the game.
Edge: Carter

SF – Kleiza vs Lewis
It’s lose-lose at the 3. If Kleiza’s achilles is still bothering him, there’s no way he can hang with Lewis. If he can’t even play, the Raptors have no one who can begin to match-up here. Weems, while athletic, doesn’t have the size to bother Lewis (6″10). While Kleiza isn’t 6″10 either, he does have some strength which can compensate. At the end of the day, Lewis is only averaging 11pts 6rebs (all for the low-low price of $20mil), but if folks start doubling Howard (like I wish they wouldn’t but know they will), there’s going to be a lot of open shots for the guys on the perimeter.
Edge: Lewis

PF – Evans vs Anderson / C – Bargnani vs Howard
I have a feeling the front court is going to get messy, and will see the following match-ups (humour me here):

Raptors Playing Defense
Bargnani/Howard & Evans/Anderson
We all know Bargnani wont stop Howard, but the killer part here is that since Anderson likes to live on the perimeter, Evans will be out of position to rebound on the defensive glass. Bargnani has no chance on Howard, and this could get messy fast. I expect Amir to get some heavy minutes if he can play with his head and stay out of foul trouble; even Dorsey should see some time. This situation neutralizes the only reason to start Evans alongside Bargnani, and exposes how bad this front court really is.

Raptors Playing Offense
Bargnani/Anderson & Evans/Howard
I don’t see Howard playing out on the perimeter with Bargnani. The Magic are the 2nd best defensive team, and 4th best rebounding team for a reason: Dwight Howard is a beast in the paint. Evans is a bad enough offensive player that Howard can essentially roam free and help everywhere, and recover fast enough to challenge Reggie in the paint. Anderson moves well enough that he can keep up with Bargnani, but probably wont prevent him from dropping 17+. I don’t think the Magic will care since they will basically be dictating the flow of the game, and Howard will be there to clean up anyone attacking the rim.
Edge: Anderson & Howard

Keys to the Game

Play with Heart
The expectation tonight is not to win, but rather to play with some pride. There is a moral victory to be had here if at the end of the game the Raptors can say they did their best, but still lost. The gain here is continuing the aggressive play they’ve shown us, not getting down big early, fighting for every possession, and making smart plays.

Pray to Jah
Seriously. It will take every Raptor, hitting on all cylinders, not making mistakes and sticking a lot of shots for this to be a contest. The Magics bench is pretty scary too, which compounds the problem: Mickael Pietrus, Brandon Bass, Martin Gortat, JJ Reddick…they are better at every possible match-up and combination of lineups.

The Line

The Magic are 14 point favourites, at home with a full days rest.

Looking to have some food, drinks and good times with other Raptor fans? Come check out Raptor Fan Fridays at The Sports Center Cafe.

As always, we got Twitter, Facebook and Live Chat; pick your poison.

Q. How did the Knicks do this off-season? Talk about drafts, trades and free agent signings as well as ownership/management changes.

Kevin McElroy: The answer to this question is necessarily relative to expectations. By any normal measure, this was the Knicks best summer since the mid-90’s. Their failed pursuit for LeWyane Bosh aside, the Knicks brought in Amare Stoudemire, a five-time all-star with three top-ten scoring seasons who also happens to be the active career leader in true shooting percentage. While concerns about the riskiness of the acquisition (especially those relating to Stoudemire’s injury history) are understandable, the rarity with which players of Stoudemire’s caliber can be had without forfeiting any tradeable assets makes the signing a worthwhile gamble. The David Lee trade — in which the Knicks gave up a player that they had already made redundant and received two valuable role players and a freakish athlete with world-class upside in return — was the best player for player(s) swap the Knicks have made since they brought in Latrell Sprewell and Marcus Camby; if Anthony Randolph develops, it will go down as even better than those trades.

I worry about Raymond Felton eating up valuable cap space, but I get the feeling that his signing was about keeping Amare happy enough to keep telling his buddies how great things were in New York — Felton’s contract should be moveable if he becomes the final obstacle to bringing in another star. I hated the Knicks’ play-it-safe strategy on draft night, but based upon the summers that Landry Fields and Lance Stephenson have had, my opinion on the matter has softened. Fields will hang around for 10 years and be a useful role player for the Knicks in the near term.

Q. Who came out the bigger winner AND loser in the Atlantic Division?

KM: I’ll exclude the Knicks from the conversation here since I’ve already discussed their offseason. I think the Celtics are the winners by default, mostly because they were the only Atlantic Division team good enough to focus their off-season on filling their remaining needs rather than blindly overhauling the team and hoping it would work out. I’m not crazy about their Shaquisition for the same reason I wasn’t crazy about it when he was Shaquired by Phoenix or Cleveland, but at the veteran minimum it’s a low risk move and they can always tell him to go away if he becomes a problem.

As for the biggest losers, the Nets’ mind-bendingly bizarre assortment of free agent signings gets the nod even in a division where Toronto lost their franchise leader in scoring and rebounding just as he was entering his prime. Better build that arena, Brooklyn, or Johan Petro will be plying his trade elsewhere!

Q. Last season we saw a dog fight from 5-9 in the East for a playoff appearance (the Raptors dropped from 5th to 9th rapidly at the tail-end of the season). What are your predictions for this upcoming season? Who are your dark horses to watch out for?

KM: Obviously the Heat jump out of that dog fight and into the top 3, arguably the top 1. I think this will be another season in which the Eastern Conference can be separated into pretty well-defined tiers. The Tier 1 teams — Miami, Orlando, Boston — seem fairly insurmountable at the top of the pyramid, although if the Celtics all get old at the same time, they could feasibly drop into Tier 2. For now, Tier 2 is Atlanta, Chicago, and probably Milwaukee, all of whom should qualify for the postseason comfortably and will be primarily concerned with finishing 5th or better and thus avoiding the Tier 1 teams in the first round. Tier 3 is where it gets a bit hairy: Charlotte has to be viewed as the 7th best team going into the year, but New York has much greater upside and is the only team outside of Tiers 1 and 2 with a chance to vault into the top 6 if everything goes right.

If things implode for the Knicks — and, let’s face it, why shouldn’t they — The Pacers, Sixers, and Cavs are all in the picture for one of the last two playoff spots. One more quick point that nobody is talking about: I will not be surprised if strength of schedule becomes a decisive factor in the Eastern Conference this year. The Bobcats have to play a whopping 15 games against the Heat, Magic, and Hawks, while the Knicks and Sixers will play each other five times and have 10 games each against the Nets and Raps. Could be enough to bump the Bobcats down to ninth in a tight East.

Q. Is what happened in Miami bad for the league? On the one hand, players are taking control of their own futures (as best as possible); but on the other, the rich just seem to get richer.

KM: I swore a lifelong oath of hatred against the Miami Heat the day that Pat Riley hopped the fence back in 1995, but the answer to this question is still “no.” In the long-term, this has to be viewed as good for the league, and not just because it will allow us to see something we’ve never seen before (which it will) and give other fan bases a unifying enemy (which it also will). The reason I’m glad it happened, and happened when it did, is that it has placed everything from cap rules to player tampering to the merits of “Superteams” at the forefront of the conversation, just before a watershed CBA renegotiation. This is the best way for basketball fans and writers to have any kind of a voice about the future of the league. Maybe I’m dreaming on that but, at a time when the NBA seems desperate to drum up demand for its product, it will have an unprecedented opportunity to gauge public opinion on nearly every issue that is likely to come up this summer. We may all be thanking LeWyane Bosh before this is over.

(Was that convincing? No? Darn it. I really hate the Heat.)

Q. Do you share the view that playing in Toronto is similar to playing in Europe, and not very appealing to American born players? What’s your take on the Raptors and Toronto as a destination for the NBA elite?

KM: I think there are five or six “destination cities” in the League right now — LA, Miami, New York, Chicago, maybe one or two of the Texas cities — and I don’t think Toronto is one of them. But I think it’s still a long way up from playing in Europe and doubt the Canadian border has much of a practical effect on players’ decisions. Most NBA cities become appealing destinations if and only if their resident teams employ players and executives that are appealing to NBA free agents, which the post-Bosh Raptors probably don’t. The problem is that Toronto’s previous attempts at building around a franchise player were based upon guys whose personalities were not conducive to being the first major building block on a team in a non-destination city. It only takes one super-talented, super-loyal star — think Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard — to attract top players to a place that once seemed to be on the NBA periphery. The problem, of course, is finding that guy. Clearly, Vince Carter and Chris Bosh didn’t fit the description.

Q. What’s your take on Bryan Colangelo and the job he’s done for the Raptors? Could he have held on to Bosh had he made other choices? Did he make a huge mistake by not trading him earlier? What about the type of team he is trying to build in Toronto?

KM: I think Bosh was always leaving — he’s a very good second option alongside an elite scoring wing with good court vision; now he gets to play with two of them. It’s interesting to think about how things would have played out for Toronto if Bosh and T-Mac had come along at about the same time — they would have complemented each other brilliantly, maybe well enough that they both would have wanted to stay. As for Colangelo, I think he was probably doomed from the start. His mandate was to focus singularly on the retention of a player who was 1) probably always going to leave and 2) probably not good enough to be the best player on a great team anyway. To the extent that this strategy has failed (in the departure of Bosh) or set the franchise back (due to the shortsightedness of some of Toronto’s acquisitions), that failure is more associated with the flaws of the mandate (which fall at the feet of ownership) than with any flaws in execution (which would fall at the feet of Colangelo). That said, Toronto clearly needs to dive head-first into overhaul mode and that necessarily involves a conversation regarding whether Colangelo remains the right man for what is now a very different job.

It took 28 games, and an injury that sidelined Calderon for a couple weeks, but the Raptors have finally come together. 7-1 in their last 8 games and we have ourselves a team that has a chance to climb above .500 for the first time since Nov. 13, a span of 27 games that took years off of all our lives.

2010 has us 2-1 against teams, who if the playoffs started today, would have home-court advantage. If that doesn’t lend credibility to the 5 game winning streak they went on in December against weaker opponents, then I don’t know what does. Even the most cynical and pessimistic of us all (I’m mostly talking about myself here) have our chins up off the ground with pride.

This recent 7-1 stretch has been an about face for this organization defensively. After surrendering 108.6 points a game (a  defense which was referred to as the worst in NBA history), our boys have tightened their laces and dug deep, to only give up a stingy 92.6 points. That sort of defense takes the pressure off your offense and allows you to let the game to come to you. This is exactly what we have been seeing from this lot.

Against Orlando, we saw crisp rotations and excellent man defense in the paint, especially by Bargnani on Howard. You wouldn’t know it by looking at the box score, but Howard was kept in check – the guy only had 10 shot attempts from the floor. Had it not been for that 4th quarter collapse of sorts (35 points surrendered), the Raptors would have kept the Magic around 95 points for the game.

Against Philly, we will need more of the same, especially from Bargnani. Dalembert is coming off a ridiculous 20/20 game against the Wizards. He’s always given us big problems under the rim with his size and rebounding. In fact, Philly’s entire front line consists of young, athletic bigs who keep coming in waves. Bosh/Bargnani/Johnson will need to make a concerted effort on the boards. I know I keep saying this, but if we take away their second chance attempts, it will make it that much harder for them to score.

What will be crucial for the Raptors will be the play of Calderon off the bench. He had a phenomenal game against the Magic, penetrating and kicking out to open shooters on the perimeter, circa 2007 where he was at his most effective. I actually haven’t seen that from him all season, as he looked a bit off/timid before he was out for a couple weeks. Whatever was going on with him, I don’t care, our boy is back – hopefully.

This will be our first look at Iverson in two years, and I must say, I’m pretty excited. His play of late has been pretty solid. Interestingly enough, over the last 5 games, the Sixers have lost when Iverson hasn’t reached double digits in points. The guy has clearly lost a step, but he’s crafty, so DeRozan/Weems/Belinelli will have to keep him on him off screens and through traffic. This should actually be a matchup where our SG by committee should win. Athletically, we should give Philly SG’s fits all night.

The line has Philly at -1.5, with the over/under at 196, but after that collapse to the Wizards, I can’t see the Sixers having a whole lot in them, even at home. Raptors take this bad boy 98-92, and climb 1 game over .500 for the first time in two months.

Joint us tonight at the Sports Center Cafe for Raptor Fan Fridays. Some good times, good food, good beverages and hopefully a good win. TGIF.

If you’re going to blow 18 point fourth quarter leads, the least you could do is win the game and save yourself the blushes. As the Magic were making that furious fourth quarter run, all you could think of was what a shame it would be if the Raptors lost this after the phenomenal effort and dedication they had showed for 3 1/2 quarters. The team had never looked crisper and more sure of themselves as they did last night as they played both ends of the floor and frustrated the Magic into submission in front of a home crowd that grew impatient by the minute. The Magic made their run but in the end justice was served as the Raptors earned themselves a great road win and avoided the season sweep. Yes, the Magic were on a back-to-back and playing their 4th game in 6 nights, but the Raptors know all too well what that’s like.

The game plan for the struggling Magic was simple – go down to what’s tried, tested and true. They went to Howard on literally every possession in the first and he gave them 9 of their first 12 points. Bargnani did as well a job as you can on him in single-coverage and came up on the short end of the stick on the fouls yet again. Three of his six fouls was rubbish calls made only because defenders usually foul Howard in those situations, the officials need to actually see the play and not make judgments based on how things “usually” go. Other than Howard, the Magic movement was good with quick cuts being made every time Nelson or Lewis held the ball at the wing. The Raptors defense wasn’t shabby either, in fact, we were highly active as evidenced by the sheer number of deflections we had in the game. The Magic scored 27 in the first quarter but they didn’t come easy, the Raptors played sound energetic defense and forced the Magic into shots the Raptors wanted them to take. They just made them.

On offense, the sets were crisp, purposeful and enthusiastically executed. There was an effort being made to get Bargnani involved and hopefully get him to pick up some fouls against Howard, it didn’t happen but a good try by Triano. Bargnani was missing everything early but they were, what we consider for him, good shots. He had a couple flashes into the lane followed by short jumpers, a trailing three, a spot-up jumper but couldn’t convert. The ball movement was absolutely rock solid and led to Antoine Wright nailing a couple jumpers off the bench and DeMar DeRozan moving well to find the open spot on the floor to unleash dead-eye jumpers. On all his jumpers tonight (6-7 FG, the lone miss was in and out) he had his feet set, was squared up, had a high release, eyes-locked, and followed through properly even in the face of pressure. They were all mid-range jumpers created because of good floor spacing and his willingness to step in from the three-point line and make himself available to his PG. 5 of his 6 jumpers were assisted which was the theme of the night as the Raptors collected 31 dimes on the night. Triano spoke of the strategy to get DeRozan open:

We showed some things on video tape where he might be open. They were going to double Chris Bosh in the low block and they were doubling off DeMar last time. We thought they might do that again and they did; we showed him on video tape where he might be able to go get open looks.

The Magic’s four point first quarter lead was short-lived as Jose Calderon came off the bench as Jack gave way. Jose’s obviously picked up a few things by watching Jack as he maintained the frenetic pace set by his predecessor. Quick-thinking aggressive offense encourages player movement and he had Turkoglu, Bargnani, Johnson and Bosh all on their toes early with his quick-hitting passes off the high-screens. He had 8 assists on the night and 6 of them were to Bosh and Bargnani off the high screen; he had a very good command of the two-man game and his play leading up the pass was very deliberate and measured. The Raptors went on a great early second quarter run where it seemed they scored within the first 14 seconds of the shot-clock every time. Turkoglu’s long-distance shot was on (3-4 3FG) and Jose himself nailed a three and a spot-up jumper to keep Nelson close, and the pressure on the Magic. The defense lapsed a little but the Magic were unable to make us pay by missing what they consider clean looks from three (they were 9-31, we were 9-20).

Belinelli came off the bench to knock down a jumper off a curl as part of that exquisitely executed second quarter and when Brandon Bass tried to D him up, he took him off the dead-dribble to the rim for two. However, the second belonged to Bargnani who had 10 points and was giving Gortat and Howard something to think about by playing on diverse spots on the floor. All this while holding his own on the glass against Howard, the 8 rebounds are nice but I wish the boxscore reflect the way he boxed out tonight. Suffice to say that 35-35 rebounding number is as much Bargnani’s doing as any other Raptors. The latter parts of the second quarter saw the Raptors fatigue a little and the offense become stagnant, but when the jumper is working those ills have quick remedies. Jack and Turkoglu hit big bailout shots which had the Magic looking towards the skies for answers. The Magic were held to one field goal in the final 4:43 of the quarter as the Raptors defense collapsed on Howard, played very tight on the perimeter and did a superb job of negotiating Orlando screens. Other than Redick hitting a couple jumpers off Howard screens, the Raptors came off unscathed. Triano on Bargnani’s play:

Andrea did an outstanding job on Dwight. He made him work all game. We tried not to double at any point, we wanted to make him score, make him work to score. I thought Andrea did a real good job of playing him by himself and forcing him to take tough shots and keep him off the glass.

62% shooting at the half gets you a 9 point halftime lead on the road even though your All-Star is struggling, and Bosh did struggle. In fact, other than his rebounding he did everything in his power to help us lose the game. Six turnovers, countless strips, terrible shooting decisions and a failure to exploit Howard using his quickness. Triano on Bosh:

Chris has to be better. He didn’t have one of his better games and we survived that. Is said that to him inside, there’s a lot of times you carry this team, this time the team carried you.

We were fortunate that every other starter was in double-digits, otherwise there would’ve been some serious questions asked of Bosh. There’s nothing more painful to watch in the Raptors offense than when Bosh is given the ball at the high-post and every other Raptor stands still, as was the case in the fourth quarter. When the Raptors offense is functioning properly there is a two-man game going between a PG and a big, the SG or SF is trying to get open as the other big gets into rebounding position and sets screens on the weak side. For most of the game we were in that mode and only when the fourth quarter came and DeRozan and Belinelli were sent to the bench in order for the Jack/Calderon/Turkoglu trio to be given another shot, did we struggle.

In fairness to Bosh, the Magic did send a second guy to either double or show every time, it’s just that when he did get the ball in those situations he took too long to read what was going on. It must be said that it’s easy criticizing a player’s court-awareness when watching on TV with a panoramic view of the action, reading defenses and recognizing opportunities under pressure is difficult. This is a part of Bosh’s game that has always been a weak point and one of the major criticisms of making him a centerpiece. Nice no-look to Turkoglu for the jam, though.

The third was more of the same, DeRozan knocked down three jumpers here and once again, the ball movement was flawless. There were possessions here and there where the rock got stuck, but as I said, we were hitting our bailout shots so it didn’t seem too bad. The story to me was the Magic shot-selection – very poor. Vince took some brutal shots and got sent to the bench, Redick launched a few contested shots against Belinelli and DeRozan, and the Magic tried to desperately shoot themselves back in the game from long-range. Howard only attempted three shots in the quarter, give credit to Bargnani for denying him ideal position and the Raptors team-defense to sending timely help. Early in the first they had had great success with Howard, not so after that, it also felt like he let his team’s poor play get to him and took his foot off the pedal. Maybe it’s a back-to-back thing?

Closing out the game with a 18 point lead against a fatigued team shouldn’t be too hard but Triano sure made it. As well as Jack (15/3/7) and Calderon (8 assists) had played apart, he put them in together along with Turkoglu for the fourth and the results were as expected – not good. The redundancy of having Calderon and Turkoglu on the floor is getting to be very apparent, even though it worked to a measure in the second quarter. Having all three in there with Jack at the point moves Calderon to the off and there goes the slashing aspect of our offense out the window. Whereas DeRozan, Weems and even Wright provide the east-west slashing that leads to easy points, Calderon parks himself on the corner and becomes very easy to guard. It also hurts our rebounding as we lose height at the SG position, even more so because Calderon (unlike Wright or DeRozan) is never in offensive or defensive rebounding position. Needless to say the offense suffered as we went to our last resort on the night (Bosh at the elbow with no movement) and he didn’t deliver.

On the other end, Nelson must have had a flashback to the playoff series and started to take Calderon off the dribble, getting fouled a couple times and causing enough penetration to create shots for others. The Magic made a couple deep bombs but Turkoglu and Bargnani responded in kind. It was an 11-0 Magic run which consisted entirely of Nelson and Redick scoring which cut the Raptors lead to 101-99. Jack had the chance to reign in the game with some long jumpers but missed badly and the Magic had two chances to cut the lead to one but Redick and Lewis missed good looks.

The first pressure possession came with a 1:16 left with the Raptors hanging on to a 2 point lead with offensive confidence at a game-low. Turkoglu used a high screen and drove against Lewis to get the foul and two FTs. After Vince scored on a poorly defended play, we went back to Turkoglu with 0:35 left and he missed a jumper but Belinelli had good position on the ball as it was trickling the other way and Vince hit it out of bounds, giving us possession and the win with 0:21 left. Clutch FTs by Bosh and Belinelli sealed the deal. Back at .500.

There’s no flipbook for this game since I was vegged out on the couch, but I couldn’t resist taking this one.

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So much for unfounded optimism in calling games (my pre-game call), I will be sticking to my gut feeling from now on (my podcast call). Pitiful display by the Raptors last night. We’ve owned the Heat over the last few seasons, so you knew they were due for a win, but not like that. After what we did to the Rockets? After that team meeting that was supposed to be the key to the season? Looks like what ails the Raptors requires a shuffling of players/coach, and not Alvin Williams facilitating communication workshops while Gherardini translates.

I’m still pretty embarrassed from that loss to the Magic a month ago. The one where our genius marketing/PR team thought it a great idea to pay tribute to Vince Carter, while he was playing against us that same day. The one where he declined the offer, then proceeded to pace the Magic to the win, with a perma-grin plastered on his face the whole time. I ask one thing of the Raptors marketing team: please don’t spawn any new gimmicks for games where we play Vince Carter. We are 0-2 in these situations, and I fear the worst for all of our sanity if you fail miserably one more time.

I don’t like playing Orlando this year because I’m constantly reminded of what the Raptors SHOULD have done the last two off-seasons, namely go after Pietrus and Barnes since they represented exactly what this team was missing and continues to need at a reasonable price tag.

Tonight against the Magic is going to be bad.  The Magic by the numbers:

• 7-3 in their last ten
• 8-2 at home
• 14-3 against the East
• +5.8 scoring differential (5th best in the league)
• 43.1 rebounds a game (7th in the league)
• 21pts 23rebs by Howard Monday against the Pacers
• 28pts 7rebs 3ast by VC Monday against the Pacers

You see where I’m going with this right? The Raptors need to do exactly the opposite of what they did against the Heat last night.

Bosh/Bargnani need to attack Howard early and get him into foul trouble. They need to hit him and get between him and the glass. You aren’t going to out jump the guy, so get in there and fight. Rashard Lewis will stretch the defense, so one of Bosh or Bargnani will be out of position to rebound, means the rest of the girls need to pull up their knickers and compensate. Bosh needs to grab more then 2 rebounds, regardless of who he’s covering. We had mixed results against Houston/Miami, but with Orlando grabbing so many rebounds, the Raptors have to do better then the last time around when the Magic’s offensive rebounding was brutalizing our girls.

Turkoglu needs to be kept under control. I know this is going to be an emotional night for him returning to Orlando after playing there for 5 years, but he isn’t the kind of guy who can just damage a team on his own. I do like giving him the ball and letting him create for Bosh/Bargnani though, but that’s it. His one-on-one moves need to be minimized, and his shots should only come in the natural flow of the offense…whatever that means for the Raptors.

Vince had a monster night Monday against the Pacers that helped pace Howard to a monster night of his own. We know VC can score, we know he can create, but lets hit him a few times. I bet if DeRozan/Weems elbow him a couple times in the kidneys, he stays away. Let him shoot the lights out, I just don’t want him getting to the rack and laying it up gracefully as he does. While we’re at it, how about not letting JJ Reddick have another career night. The guy can shoot, so lets not double Howard down low, letting him kick out to one of his open shooters (in this case Reddick) who will knock it down. If you didn’t know, that is what Orlando wants everyone to do. The team is built on this one thing.

Jimmy‘s sim says Orlando will win 101-88. The gamblers have the Magic as -11 and the money at -750. I had the Raptors losing this one in the podcast, it’s the second night of a back-to-back, so I’ll be damned if I change my mind; Magic win 114-89.