For every peak there’s a valley. November is tough but life will get easier, not by much, but thing will even out for the team and we’ll have a chance at netting a respectable record provided we beat the teams we’re supposed to beat. Yes, that’s a loaded sentence since what the definition of a team we’re “supposed to beat” is up in the air, here’s an attempt at classifying our competition.

Atlantic Division

Boston: As much as it pains me to say this, we’ll be lucky to eek out a single win against them. They’re too disciplined and play too hard for the Raptors. Unless a couple Raps have monster games and we have a strong defensive display, I don’t see us doing anything against them. Remember, one strong half doesn’t count for anything. 1-3.

Philadelphia: A team we dropped two to in pre-season but have historically done well (by our standards, 26-27 all-time). This year they have Brand healthy and have addressed the outside shooting with Kapono, who is a far better fit there than here. They’re also top three in the league in athleticism. 2-2.

New York: The Knicks are waiting for Lebron and didn’t make any big moves this summer. If last year’s Craptors team could go 2-2 against them, no reason to think we can’t do better this time around. David Lee, you’ve been served. 3-1.

New Jersey: We lost both our home games to them in close affairs and one won which came down to the wire at the swamp. You might remember Brook Lopez going to town on Jermaine O’Neal once or twice, it was quite amusing. And sad. If we can’t win three games against them this year we need to be relegated. 3-1.

Central Division

Cleveland: I’m going to go out on a limb and say we’re going to beat them twice this season. They got Shaq over the summer but that’s about it, I don’t consider Parker or Moon upgrades, not even over Wally. We’ll win on Wednesday, you heard it here first. Plus, we’re bound to win one at home, Bosh will make sure of that, if not him, his cousin will step up. Remember, we went 2-2 against an NBA finals team last year so beating a great team on occasion isn’t out of character. 2-2.

Chicago: Quick point guards scare me and Derrick Rose is quick. Although you can make a good case that they got weaker over the summer by letting Gordon go, they still have big men who can bang and two wing scorers who can score. I still expect the Raptors to get the two wins at home, no Chuck Swirskly close-up on the ACC scoreboard please. 2-1

Detroit: Much like the Raptors, the Pistons could be really good or really bad. They got more offensive minded by adding Ben Gordon and Charlie V but those two don’t play a lick of defense. The men to fear are Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton who make their living by playing the Raptors. Lose 1-3.

Indiana: Danny Granger’s talent, T.J. Ford lingering motivations for revenge and Troy Murphy having a 20-20 game will result in Indiana taking two games they have no business winning. 2-2.

Milwaukee: We haven’t ever swept the Bucks so no reason to think that’s going to happen, unless of course Roko Ukic starts playing 48 minutes for them. Bogut, Gadzuric and Elson add depth to the big man rotation but the guard play is weak with Redd the only one to worry about. Luc Mbah a Moute’s an up and comer but other than him, they’re relying on Charlie Bell and Carlos Delfino. Make-up costs more in Wisconsin, bet Delfino didn’t take that into account during contract negotiations. 2-1.

Southeast Division

Orlando: Usually we manage to play well against them with the whole Bosh/Howard thing, even last year we split our season series but now that they’ve got Vince, he’ll make sure that doesn’t happen. The Raptors win one game, that too in Orlando when Vince is taking a night off looking up pictures of old high school flames on his iPhone. 1-3.

Atlanta: We went 1-3 last year and no reason to think this year will be different. Historically, we’ve always played close games against them and there’s no doubt this series will present a few chances for our vaunted wing defender Antoine Wright to go up against Joe Johnson. The Hawks are in a better position to win a first round series than us. 1-3.

Miami: The Heat are the only team that takes their media day pics all pimped out. Another team that’s gearing up for Bosh, they tried to offload Beasley in the summer but want to hang on to Joel Anthony? Doesn’t make sense. It’ll be good fun to laugh at JO again. Raps win three laughers. 3-1.

Charlotte: Gerald Wallace morphed into Superman the last couple times we played them. Felton and Augustin will be a load to handle and so will Chandler and Diaw, the latter ate up Bosh last year. You can make a case that they’re more talented than the Raptors and I see the record reflecting that, mostly because of their two home games….everybaaaddyyy claap youuuur haands. 1-2.

Washington: X-Factors R Us. Jamison injured, Arenas mentally injured and Caron Butler off and on injured. Will Andray Blatche amount to something? Will Nick Young continue his progress? Will anybody in DC care if they move to Helsinki, Finland? The Raps have two home games and I think what you saw in the pre-season game of the Wizards looked about right. 3-0.

Northwest Division

Denver: You know how they say you should always focus on the next game and never look ahead to your next opponent. Yeah, Denver does that the night before they’re playing us. 0-2.

Portland: Home team wins both games, last season we lost 98-97 at the ACC after screwing up the last minute or so. This year we don’t screw up, we make amends. This will be the year Bargnani proves hs #1 pick worth. Not. 1-1.

Utah: The Jazz have swept us the last four years and the games haven’t exactly been close. At best we can go 1-1 but let’s be conservative and realistic. 0-2.

Minnesota: No, we will not lose to them again. If we do, I’ll quit RR. 2-0.

OKC: Nick Collison got the better of Bosh on a crucial rebound last year. I don’t think Bosh has forgotten. The game in OKC should be a dandy, I heard that home crowd is louder than the ACC after Marcus Banks knocks a FT down to make it 122-100 Lakers. 2-0.

Pacific Division

LA Lakers: Come for Kobe, stay for the blowout, maybe we’ll touch a 100. 0-2.

Phoenix: We’ve been getting swept here for five years now. The home game is somewhat close but Nash usually comes through. This year we break the streak. 1-1.

Golden State: I was going to go 2-0 here this year if it weren’t for the home date being our fourth game in six nights. Stephen Jackson will be guarding Chris Bosh in this game. Book it. 1-1.

LA Clippers: It doesn’t matter if Blake Griffin is injured or not, we have no business losing to the Clippers. 2-0.

Sacramento: See Clippers. 2-0.

Southwest Division

San Antonio: Surprisingly, we’ve gone .500 against them the last two seasons. On paper, they win both games but let the tribal honker in me pick the Raptors for a W. The home games’ a Matt Bonner night which should tell you how low our standards are when giving people their own nights. Word through the grapevine is that Dion Glover will be getting his own night too. 1-1.

Houston: As we saw, Houston is a solid team, but they’re not as good as we made them out to look. We’re a not-so-terrible 11-16 against them all-time and I’ll play the percentages. 10 bucks Yao stays on the Houston bench all season long. 1-1.

Dallas: We have one win in the last five years. Wishful thinking says the Raptors pull one out at home after last year’s embarrassment. Reality says Dirk is still much better than Bargnani and if Marion is good for one thing, it’s neutralizing a wing. 0-2.

New Orleans: So they switched Chandler for Okafor. Is that going to put them over the top? No, but that’s still going to be good enough for West and Paul to dominate their way to a couple wins. Apparently, atmosphere-wise, New Orleans is one of the best places to see a NBA game. 0-2.

Memphis: See Clippers and Kings, Bosh stares down camera after winning at home. 2-0.

Final Record: 42-40

Boston: The Celtics trinity are a year older but they’re still only 31, 32 and 33, one could even argue that they’re in their prime. They lost James Posey who was instrumental in their title run but as we’ll see this season that when you have three Hall of Famers on the roster, you tend to make up for things like that. The Big 3 might be a year slower but Rajan Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe and Baby Davis all gained experience last year that should help the Celtics in the regular season. Short of the Celtics putting it in cruise control and waiting for the playoffs, the Atlantic division is theirs. I highly doubt Boston will “take it easy” during the season because they realized last post-season how important home-court advantage in the playoffs can be. They’re not going to challenge for 70 wins but they’ll win the Atlantic.

Philadelphia: The second spot in the division has to go to either the Raptors or Sixers and I’m leaning towards Philly for two reasons: 1) They play better defense and 2) They play harder. They also happen to have more talent and athleticism across the board with Dalembert, Iggy, Brand and Miller headlining the roster and the team has their coach’s attention, something that can’t be said for the Raptors. Philly has a tight unit that can run, slash, block shots, rebound and starting this year, play in the post. There’s also something to be said for having a PG who can penetrate at will and pass it off to two double-team threats in Iggy and Brand, it’s combination like these that make for fourth quarter scores. Philly edges the Raptors to take second place.

Toronto: The team with the most “ifs” in the division. The hope is to finish with home-court in the conference but that would likely mean finishing above Philadelphia which is hard to see happening unless many things go right. Not saying it can’t happen, just that the odds are against us. Areas of concern last year were: perimeter defense, rebounding, fourth quarter scoring/lack of SF production. Of those three major needs we seem to have addressed one – i.e: rebounding. The Raptors are hoping that the players who played mediocre or bad last year simply play better and produce more. They’re hoping that Bargnani’s miserable season (BTW, great piece on Andrea Bargnani at Hoops Addict) was an anomaly and he can get back to terrorizing centers by taking them off the dribble. They’re hoping that the “addition by subtraction” at the PG spot works out in their favor and that Jermaine O’Neal returns to All-Star form and out-play the Dalembert-Brand combo in Philadelphia. Sam Mitchell needs to gel the team like Mo Cheeks did last year and I simply don’t have the confidence in him. I’d like to think we could beat Philly by a game or two but the reality here is too much to ignore.

New Jersey: Vince Carter, Bobby Simmons, Yi, Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and CDR sound like a good young exciting team but there’s very little of substance here. The lazy Carter’s 15 million dollar contract sticks out like a sore thumb on a team that’s trying to rebuild from the ground up and get some momentum for their eventual move to Brooklyn. The priority here isn’t winning, its developing some young talent and hoping somebody takes Carter off their hands. At least they know exactly the direction they’re going in. The Nets will be fun to watch and might even surprise some people but at the end of the they’re a couple notches below the Raptors, Sixers and the Celtics.

New York: If the Knicks go with the lineup of Gallinari, Crawford, Jeffries, Duhon and Malik Rose they’ll manage to win a few games. This team plays hard as often as AC Green gets laid so its always going to be an uphill battle for them. Mike D’Antoni’s a run ‘n gun coach without a run ‘n gun team. It’s not going to surprise me if the Knicks falter and fail but if all things go right and Marbury returns to mediocrity along with Eddy Curry showing a glimpse of his Bulls days, they might challenge the Nets for the 4th spot.

That’s it for today. Grab the feed for Arsy Raptors stuff delivered to your RSS reader.

Chris will be in his best shape ever, and I know he wants to keep the momentum going. By the time we start camp, he will have had a full five- or six-week break, so everyone will be ready to go.

Best shape sounds nice but Chris will have to be his “best ever” in a lot of different categories if we hope to taste some post-season success.

Tim Chisholm – who I always find extremely hard to disagree with – has a piece on TSN.ca where he’s giving some realistic facts about the team and highlighting the importance of the Bargnani factor along with the big fat question marks at the wing position. It’s basically what we’ve talked about all summer long, the media’s finally getting around to it. I think the final paragraph sums it up:

The point is that the Raptors have more questions than answers right now all about its roster. The hope is that at least a couple of the uncertainties work out in their favor as they try to keep the team competitive while they wait for free agent money to come available this summer or next (depending on whether O’Neal opts out in 2009 or lets his deal expire in 2010). By no stretch is this team in danger of losing ground to last year’s disappointing 41-41 record, as just the quality in the top-five should keep them above .500, but whether or not Colangelo’s risks have improved the team enough to become truly relevant yet remains to be seen.

On to Hoops World writing off our chances as Atlantic Division winners. So who do you think they picked? The Celtics? Wrong, its the Philadelphia 76ers who they think will win usurp Boston as champs. The Celtics might go into cruise control for the better part of the year but I doubt it, they realize how important home-court advantage is to them and will play hard from day one despite the veterans. The Raptors’ chances are written off as “As for the Toronto Raptors – they’ll need time to adjust with both JO and Chris Bosh”. I hate these realistic twats.

Fan Boy who has been a great supporter of the blog from early days is having a 50% sale with some good things up for grabs. Check out the site and see if you like anything. In October I hope to give both the readers of this blog a coupon which will give them free shipping on Fan Boy gear. That’s your incentive for coming back again and again.

That’s all there is to it really.