I checked in with Surya Fernandez from Hot Hot Hoops to talk about the Heat and the newly formed commission (Bosh, Wade, LeBron and Joe Johnson). We’re still getting weak trade offers for Bosh; I guess a 24pt 11reb a night kind of guy has no value around the league. It’s actually making me question what I think I know about basketball (which granted isn’t very much since I thought the Suns were going to be thumped buy the Spurs in the 2nd round).

Without even making a reach, Riley has a lot of options to pair Wade with an elite level forward this summer (Bosh, Boozer and Stoudemire), so you can expect him to jump at the first option regardless of who he really covets. I’m going out on a limb and predicting Bosh doesn’t end up in Miami this summer, but that the Heat will be a 50 win team next season with the additions Riley makes.

Sam Holako: What do you make of this free agent commission Wade, LeBron, Bosh and Johnson have put together to discuss their fates? Seems sinister, and frankly, I’m a little disappointed about it – whatever happened to being a man?

Surya Fernandez: It’s all a matter of perception. Toronto needs to find another willing team to do a sign and trade should Bosh want to go elsewhere to get something decent in return and start a new era. The Heat have been treading water for the last couple of years and are finally free of that huge chunk of salary cap that dated back from Shaq’s last contract extension. Wade doesn’t sound like he’s leaving so there’s little doubt that he’ll try to do some recruiting at this summit. There’s nothing else for him to talk about. I don’t mind players that are friends getting together and talking about something this important in their lives and careers. Maybe they all go their separate ways and nothing much comes of it. Just imagine what owners and GMs talk about when they all get together. It must be worse than a sewing circle.

SH: With Wade staying, I look at the team, and don’t see much of anything there: Chalmers is a nice player, Beasley has talent, I’m a fan of Joel Anthony, but outside of that, what does Miami do to round out the roster? What does Miami do to become relevant again?

SF: o question it’s a huge question mark with that many contracts clearing the books. But there is a lot of flexibility that comes with that. Udonis Haslem and Dorell Wright are solid players that can be retained or used for sign and trades to secure a point guard, the Heat’s biggest need. Chalmers and Beasley can be traded but if they stay will provide depth.

I’m not a fan of simply giving out max contracts to just anybody and I would pass on Amar’e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer and Joe Johnson because other teams that may miss out on the bigger names will be offered a max contract by a team like the Knicks, Clippers or Nets. If you can sign James or Bosh then that’s great but the Heat could also use the rest of the $10-12 million to round out a roster with some quality big men and long range shooters. I just wrote (Affordable free agents that the Miami Heat should pursue) about nine free agents that the Heat should go after if they went this path.

Another method that isn’t discussed much is to hold on to some of the cap space to facilitate trades with other teams after the season starts leading up to the trading deadline. Riley said last month that the makeover process could take up to 18 months. Teams will want to shed contracts (like the Marcus Camby or Eric Maynor trades) and the Heat could absorb them easily (and perhaps acquire a few draft picks in the process) to get some more depth leading up to a playoff run.

SH: That’s quite the list, what stands out for me is Oberto and Foye. With the Wizard probably shopping Arenas; what would you think about engineering a trade to land Arenas and Oberto for cap space and Haslem, still having enough cap space to sign a Bosh? That would be a lethal backcourt.

SF: On paper it would be a lethal backcourt. The problem is that the Wizards on paper before the start of this season were thought of as a playoff team. First you have that huge contract that in and of itself would be drawback even if it was the Arenas of a few years ago. Then you have the health issues that he never seemed to have recovered from then the gun incident that derailed the entire franchise. I’d stay away from him.

If Miami wants to try it out with an oft-injured player past his prime I’d rather take on Elton Brand and net the second overall pick too from the Sixers. His contract is just as bad as Arenas but at least then you could rationalize it by having two players who combined make “X” amount of money because of this trade. Both could be useful immediately for the Heat if Brand is at least healthy enough to contribute like Jermaine O’Neal did this past season (putting aside the Celtics playoffs). And the Heat will have an awesome rookie talent at that pick.

SH: Philly was my next option; I really think Brand will surprise folks once he gets out of Philly. Make me an offer for Bosh in a S+T.

SF: You can have your first round pick back from the Marion-O’Neal trade plus another first rounder, Cook and Chalmers (who both need a change of scenery as well). It’s better than losing him for nothing. Offering Beasley as well would be the last resort since Bosh might be persuaded to just simply sign in Miami, not have to pay income tax and the Heat could keep those players and picks I just offered to your Raptors and send them to another team for a solid player who makes less like Rudy Gay. I like Bosh but if the Raptors want to trade him to the Lakers for oft-injured Andrew Bynum then be my guest. The Heat would then go after Stoudemire and maybe Boozer.

SH: I think it’s safe to say he wont leave $30mil guaranteed on the table, so thanks for giving us back our 1st rounder, lol. Can you talk about Riley a bit. Heard he may want to take over as coach again, dropping Erik Spoelstra like he did SVG, if the Heat land another elite player to pair with Wade. Is this just all chatter, or are there some legs to these rumours?

SF: Riley threw that out there as bait for free agents to consider should they want to directly play for him. But even though he only would consider it if he was asked to now it’s hard to not to see Spoelstra as a lame duck after saying that. Quite frankly, I think the Heat has done enough for Erik since hiring him to cut video back in 1995 so I really wouldn’t mind it if the Heat had a veteran seasoned coach going forward. If it has to be Riley so be it. People complain enough that the Heat are somewhat wasting the last couple of years of Wade’s prime and I don’t see Spoelstra as a coach to take your team deep in the playoffs. He might be good at analyzing videos and preparing his players but his in-game decisions, robotic substitution patterns and poor play-calling in late game situations have been the subject of tough criticism from diehard Heat fans.

Van Gundy was squeezed out because Shaq did not want to be coached by him anymore after the Pistons series in ’05. That’s what can happen when teams employ superstars and GMs and owners have to choose whether to listen to them or not. I’m not defending Riley (and I’m positive he smelled a golden opportunity to collect another coaching ring) but sometimes it’s not as simple an issue as it may seem from outsiders looking in. The end result back then was a ring, let’s see what happens this time around.

SH: From the outside looking in, it seemed as though Riley created the atmosphere for SVG to ultimately get canned. Regardless, he was the right man for the job. Could we interest you in Turkoglu?

SF: Agreed but SVG really did muck things up a bit at the end of the Pistons series though. It sure looked like a slimy move on Riley’s part but it sure worked out. Not surprising Riley might consider jumping back in if the roster starts looking like championship material this year.

The Heat only should take Hedo if they can get Marcus Banks back!

SH: So the Heat tried to trade Beasley for Dooling, and were denied (they say he plays a very similar game to Yi); why is Beasley’s value so low?

SF: There is no accuracy to that report. It came out of a podcast with nobody to corroborate it. Ira Winderman of the Sun-Sentinel has already confirmed that the Heat never made such an offer.

There’s no comparison between Beasley and Yi. It’s almost laughable. If you’re referring to Sebastian Pruiti’s comparison to them on Nets Are Scorching all I can tell you is that stats don’t tell the whole story. Stats don’t speak about how his unexperienced coach has never put Beasley in a situation to succeed on the court, how Beasley has never had a consistent role in this team or how he’s never had a chance to play with a decent playmaking point guard since he arrived in the NBA only two years ago.

Quite frankly I’m glad his value is perceived to be low so maybe he’ll stick around. Maybe it’s his personality or maybe it’s the off-court issues. I don’t know how many players in the 4-5 million dollar range could put up 15 points and 6 and a half rebounds in less than 30 minutes while playing in an offense that is solely geared towards Dwyane Wade. Power forward should not be a position of concern for the Heat with so many holes to plug so I can’t really justify carving out such a huge slice of the cap space for Bosh or Boozer.

Yes, of course he needs to work on his game and his defense (as should all young NBA players strive to do this summer). But give him a better coach, more minutes without fear of immediately being pulled off the court because of an error, and a true point guard who can run plays for him that can give him some easier looks closer to the basket. Then we can talk about whether he’s a bust or not. I don’t know how much more value the Heat could get out of that position.

The Raptors are in a the middle of a dire 5 game losing streak and things are approaching crisis level. Effort on the defensive end has been garbage (any defense that has been played is incidental/accidental). They aren’t doing anything that speaks of any desire to win. Sure, we can score, but when most of your guys need the ball to be effective, and the coach can’t find the right recipe, things go from bad to worse. Welcome to the 2nd team in a row that Colangelo has sold to this city, yay for us.

So that Hawks game was killer. I regret not being able to muster anything after that one, but I had nothing. Literally sat in front of my computer and stared at my screen saver then gave up. What could I say? That effort shouldn’t have to be asked for? That being a professional athlete means you are being payed to compete at a high level every single time you step on the floor? That you can’t make excuses when you have actually gone through a training camp? That when you look at yourself in the mirror, you need to be proud of the guy staring back at you? That when you get backed into a corner, you should scratch/kick/claw your way out and not crouch into the fetal position and hope it stops burning?

Triano needs to figure out a formula that works. If that means putting the ball in Hedo’s hands, so be it. If that means cursing out Bargnani till he cries, do it. If that means bringing Calderon off the bench, jam on. Maybe we sit DeRozan. Maybe we start Amir. At this point, everything is an option since the current plan doesn’t work.

Tonight the Raptors head into Washington to play the Wizards for the second time in three games. The last time these guys played, the Raptors suffered a 4th quarter collapse that ultimately was lost on three very bad decisions by Jack. Sure he had a great game, but he Ben Gordoned us (he shot the team into a hole, then tried to shoot us out).

The Match-up

The Point: Calderon/Jack need to attack Arenas constantly and aggressively. The guy is a poor defender who seemingly doesn’t have the foot speed he used to have.  Jose started the last game 5-6 from the field, but then the ball was taken out of his hands for most of the rest of the game – can’t have that again. If the guy is hot, keeping feeding him, makes sense, no? Jack needs to do more driving and less shooting. It’s not like he’s shooting that well, 42% from the field isn’t stellar. Last game, Arenas was able to work himself into the game, after a slow start. Can’t let that happen either. Intensity and focus on the guy. He was scoring 29 a game and calling 40 point outbursts just a couple seasons ago.

The Skill: DeRozan and Young were not a factor in the last game at all. In fact, none of the 2-guards on either side contributed much of anything, not that they needed too. It would be good to see DeRozan follow up a career game against Atlanta with a solid performance tonight, same with Belinelli who was playing terribly until dropping 19 on the Hawks. These guys should really have no problem taking it to Young/Foye.

The Wing: Had Turkoglu not shot so poorly the last game, things may have been different. He got good looks on Butler, just couldn’t knock them down. This was an even match-up for most of the game with neither player really going off. As long as Butler is under control (I considered 19pts 7rebs under control), then I’m happy. Just shoot better ok? Antoine Wright as we came to learn yesterday has the worst PER in the league (3.1). Morris Peterson is 2nd worse, but 60% better. This should tell us all something in regards to what kind of shots he should be taking – none.

The Big: Bosh showed up for the 2nd quarter, and took the rest of the game off against the Wizzers. Still, he had 22pts 14rebs, but when you go 7-22 from the field, you aren’t helping anyone. After scoring 2 on Wednesday against the Hawks (yes, I said 2), you know he will be fierce from the tip. That fire needs to be directed at Jamison who played like he always does against the Ratpors: really freaking good – 30pts 12rebs. Granted, some of that was against Bargnani, but the majority of it came against our franchise. Jamison needs to be kept under control, not sure how, but that’s not my job, it’s Triano’s…oh wait… Amir gets spot duty, and I really have nothing to say but that I hope he gets more minutes, and keeps doing what he has done so far this season.

The Strong: I really-really hate Brendan Haywood. The guy has owned us for years, and always puts up huge numbers: 15pts 9rebs 3blks last game. For a guy who has a limited offensive arsenal, I wonder why Bargnani doesn’t do a better job of staying between him and the rim? That’s all he needs to do. Seriously, if he can box out, and put his arms up when Haywood is going up strong, good things will happen since most of the damage Haywood inflicts was on the offensive boards (he had 7 offensive rebounds last game, and probably 7 dunks/layups right afterwards). I shudder to think what Haywood would have done had Bargs not grabbed 7 defensive boards of his own. All Bargnani should be doing is standing between Haywood with an elbow in his chest, at all times. Do it.

Injuries

Raptors
Reggie Evans

Wizards
Mike Miller
Javaris Crittenton

The Line

The Wizards are 4 point favourites with an over/under of 216.

Simulation

Visser’s sims are 14-6 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 105-102 Raptors loss.

Prediction

My goodness am I defeated. I’d like to say a Raptor win, but I can’t. I don’t see how one day, and some tape-watching is going to help anything. This team needs to be read the riot act. 103-94 Wizards.

Come swing by the RR Forums and check out our game thread. You want Twitter? Live Chat? ESPN Daily Dime (will post link as soon as it goes up)? We got you son!

Also, if you’re local a 416/905er, come hang in person with us tonight at the Sports Centre Cafe for Raptor Fans Friday.

We talked about Triano’s system in Monday’s podcast, and how it wasn’t really working, and what he is going to do about it. Well we got our answer yesterday during practice when he was asked about it:

The stuff that we’re doing is basic. Do we think about tweaking things a little bit? Yes, but at the same time we were committed to this at training camp and want to give it a chance. If we need to tweak it at some point that’s what we’ll do.

I worry that we wont make any changes until it is too late for the Raptors this season. Triano doesn’t seem to be a change-on-the-fly kind of guy, which is ok because not many coaches are fluid in what they do. The good ones are on the good teams already I suppose. Bosh doesn’t seem to be worried, which is great, and he echoed what AltRaps said in our podcast yesterday that it is about that few minutes of horrible play in the 3rd that needs to be fixed:

Those five or six minutes, that is kind of what dictates the game. Even if we lose a game by 20 points, the five points the other team might go on a 10-run and not look back, and next thing you know they have confidence and they’re hitting everything. I think we just have to pay attention to detail the whole, entire game.

This is the first of two games against Washington this week, with the Raptors hosting them tonight at the ACC. The Wizards got pounded by Charlotte on Saturday and are having the same sorts of woes the Raptors do, namely energy and flatness in stretches.

The Match-up

The Point: Arenas is finally back after missing two seasons, and he is looking good early. He seems a step slow from the two games I’ve caught so far, but he seems to be playing a more mature game (in control). I, ughh, don’t know what to say about Calderon. 2pts 7ast against Nash on Sunday in some of the most uninspired ball I have seen – but in his defense, he had to switch onto Stoudemire off of every single screen which couldn’t have helped. Jack has been a little better, but only because he attacks the rim more. Otherwise his jumper sucks and he isn’t doing much to win the starting role. Even though I expect both of these guys to turn it around tonight, the Wizards back-court has quick reserves in Boykins and Foye who will be a handful when Arenas is resting during posting season highs in everything.
The Edge: Washington

The Talent: I would like to see plays run for DeRozan. Triano needs to utilize his athleticism (Jose has been tossing him perfect oops lately) more. I actually look forward to watching DeRozan and Young chase each other around the court tonight. Not expecting big things from either, but young athletic kids kids are always fun to watch. Belinelli is due a break-out game after three horrible ones in a row, and should be getting some good looks against the Wizards bench who are the type of folk that haven’t been doing much lately, but have the ability to light up the Raptors. I can see Foye going off today, he has done well against us in the past (who hasn’t though right?).
The Edge: Toronto

The  Wing: Turk, we hardly know you, but we want to see more. Tonight though, you have your hands full with Butler. Less shooting and more driving/dishing off the pick-n-roll, I think that’s your style for the rest of your time in Toronto. The jumper; take it when you’re open, but don’t look for it unless you’re inside 15ft. Just remember, Butler is good, really good, and you can’t be floating off him, or he will make you pay. Wright should never shoot the ball, ever. I hate him shooting more then I hate Jack shooting.
The Edge: Washington

The Big: Bosh’s match-up with Jamison is going to dictate who wins this game. I hate to say it, but Bosh needs to pay careful attention to this ‘old’ man, he still has lots of life in his legs. After missing the first few weeks of the season, Jamison is putting up all-star numbers again (21pts 9rebs), and will be looking to atone for his wretched game against the Bobcats on Saturday. Bad news for us, but the good news is that he has to deal with Bosh on the defensive end of the court. Jamison has made a living of rebounding the hell out of the ball against the Raptors, but I like Bosh to keep him under control off the glass. Our boy has been great at boxing out and rising above everyone to rip those bad boys down. Johnson will need to keep doing what he’s been doing so far this season. He holds it down, and will have his hands full with Blatche off the bench. Blatche will probably get Johnson into foul trouble, which will give Triano a tougher time managing minutes for his forwards.
The Edge: Toronto

The Strong: I hate Brendan Haywood…the guy is the poster child for Raptor killer. He has probably had his best games of his career against us. Unfortunately, he is also rebounding the hell out of the ball, which Bargnani will need to deal with. This needs to be a big area of concentration for Bargnani tonight since Haywood is a league leader in boards, and McGee is a long-athletic freak who also has a nose for the ball. Pops will probably see some minutes because of his athleticism, but who knows, and frankly who cares if Bargnani doesn’t make a commitment to rebound tonight. Yes yes, he will get his on offense, but if we don’t limit Washington’s offensive rebounding, we can kiss this one goodbye.
The Edge: Toronto

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans

Washington
Nobody

The Line

The Raptors are a 7 point favourite with an over/under of 212

Simulation

Visser’s sims are 13-5 this year and this time the crystal ball is predicting a 114-92 Raptor win:

Andrea Bargnani had the best game of his NBA career, scoring 36 points (12-of-17 from the field, 5-of-5 from deep) and adding 11 rebounds to lead Toronto to a 114-92 win over the Wizards.

Bargnani picked up the slack for Chris Bosh, who struggled from the field but still managed 14 points and 15 boards in the win. Hedo Turkoglu had 19 points, six rebounds and four assists and Jose Calderon had 10 points and seven assists. Jarrett Jack added 15 off the bench for the Raptors.

Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler carried the scoring load for Washington, scoring 24 and 20, respectively. Gilbert Arenas struggled from the field, finishing with 11 on 5-of-17.

Prediction

Who am I to dispute a career night by Bargs? Raptors take it 108-89.

The Raptors need to take this one as they head into a tough stretch of games where they play 7 teams who are .500 or better. Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, there is a game against the Wolves. Don’t get too excited, but it could mean two wins in a row for the Raps. It should mean two wins in a row. Actually, if they don’t win against the Wolves, Bosh might start Twittering haiku’s to the masses.

A sexy G*d fearing dame.

After going 10-4 in January, and leading the league in wins, the Wolves have gone 2-8 so far in February with one of those losses coming against the Raptors. In fact, the Raptors haven’t lost to the Wolves in 5 years, a span of 9 games. I don’t think any other team in the league has that distinction. They played the Lakers on Sunday and took a 5 point lead into the 4th, ultimately losing 111-108. Say what you will about them, but they have a few nice young players who play some exciting basketball, too bad Jefferson is down for the count. I’ll take it.

The Raptors on the other hand aren’t much better, going 3-7 in their last win, and 1-2 since the Marion hit the scene. Over the weekend, they split a pair of games with the Knicks, getting blown out of the water on the first one in Mecca, then winning by (not blowing them out mind you) 11 two days later.

Chrissa checks in as my favourite Timberwolves cheerleader, which isn’t saying much. Gotta say, most of these girls are pretty lame, Church going folk. Not that there is anything wrong with Church, we here at RR support religion (well I do anyways), but when this Telemarketer Market Researcher’s goal is to live a Christian life in everything she does…kills the buzz a bit. I was gonna go with Ashley K, but I fell asleep reading her profile. You can Fan Chrissa on Facebook if you so choose.

Injury Report

Raptors
Kris Humphries

Timberwolves
Corey Brewer
Al Jefferson

Match-ups

Calderon vs Telfair
The Edge: Calderon - Calderon won the match-up last time around as Telfair didn’t bother to pass the ball to anyone. I don’t expect much more out of Marbury’s cousin, was never a big fan of him. Ultimately doesn’t matter, Jefferson is injured.

Parker vs Foye
The Edge: Foye - Randy “McHale traded Roy to get” Foye dropped 33pts 8rebs on us the last time around while Parker was nowhere to be found. Since Parker had the solid game against the Knicks on Sunday, I don’t expect him to make out to this one. Ultimately doesn’t matter, Jefferson is injured.

Marion vs Miller
The Edge: Marion - 16pts 15rebs 5st Sunday against the Knicks. If he can do that for a couple more years, I’d give him a 3/$24 in the summer. Joey Graham kept Miller in check last time around, Marion should do the same. Ultimately doesn’t matter, Jefferson is injured.

Bosh vs Gomes
The Edge: Bosh - CB4 anchored the defense since it is his new focus at the moment. I have to admit I don’t disagree with him going that route. He was a beast at the Olympics and frankly, whatever keeps the guy happy keeps me happy. Gomes dropped 17 last time around, but Bosh should keep him in check. Ultimately doesn’t matter, Jefferson is injured.

Bargnani vs Love
The Edge: Love - Love dropped 15pts 11rebs last time around, and has been having a pretty solid rookie season. I just have a feeling that Bargnani will have a pretty solid offensive game, but fail to keep Love off the boards or off the score sheet, which will ultimately swing this match-up in Kevin’s advantage. Ultimately doesn’t matter, Jefferson is injured.

The Line

VegasInsider.com has the Raptors at 6.5, and Basketball-Reference.com says the Raptors have a 64% chance of winning. Ultimately doesn’t matter, Jefferson is injured.

The Prediction

Jefferson is injured, Raptors win by 12

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