The team that beat the Magic in Orlando earlier in the season is a far better one than the one rolling into town now; never mind that the Magic are also a much better team now. Don’t expect the same result, I can’t stress this enough.

Injuries

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Leandro Barbosa – Out
Sonny Weems  - Out
Linas Kleiza – Day to day

Orlando
Malik Allen – Day to day
Jameer Nelson – Day tod ay

Match-ups

Point Guard
For anyone who didn’t get concerned about the Magic after the two big trades: you haven’t been paying attention. While the Arenas trade may have been unnecessary, and potentially has hurt the front court depth, you can’t deny that having multiple playmakers come playoff time is crucial. It frees up Nelson from the burden of playmaking, to scoring and swinging the ball. After a few games to adjust, Jameer is shooting 48% from behind the arc in January while averaging 6.4ast. 60% of his shots come outside of 18feet. What’s interesting is how he’s getting those assists; on average, 2.5 ofthem result in a three, and 2.2 of them at the rim. So two-thirds of his passes result in some sort of open-look off that high screen.

The lame use of stats is meant to illustrate what kind of battle Jose should expect tonight: Jameer likes the perimeter. Leaving him to double will result in an open look that he’s all too happy to take, or even worse, when Jose runs to close him out, he blows by him and puts pressure on our defense in the paint where the options of what to do are limitless since everyone is worried about Howard.

You can officially put me in the “don’t trade Jose unless you get something really valuable back” camp. One of the best parts of this season has been-being able to sit through a game and not be upset about the effort; Jose is a big reason for that. In January, the kid is averaging 12pts 11ast; coming 1 rebound shy of a triple-double against the Wizards. With so much history since the last year we were in the playoffs, there’s going to be some nice back-and-forth with these two. I haven’t even mentioned Arenas, who frankly, I’ve expected a bit more from since the trade. The good news for the Raptors is that he pretty much spends all his time on the arc hoping to jack it up. Not sure if he’s fully recovered from that injury a few years ago, but he doesn’t seem to like to put the ball on the floor and take his man off the dribble. I’ve got my eye on this Gaines kid, who’s quickly playing Bayless out of some minutes.
Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
This is where things start to go really wrong for the Raptors.  It took a few weeks to get used to a totally different system than what he enjoyed in Phoenix, but Jason Richardson hasn’t lost a step. He must be relishing playing for a contender after getting to the conference finals last year. Half his shots (in a Magic uniform) come from behind the arc, and 94% of those are assisted. The guy is a catch and shoot player, and hits them rather efficiently, 44% since being traded from the Suns. Where DeMar can hurt him is off the dribble and in transition where Richardson lateral movements limit his defensive effectiveness.

I like the Raptors offense much better with DeMar as the focal point. He’s attacking the basket off the dribble, and picking his spots to take an 18 foot jumper. The shot still doesn’t inspire 100% confidence in me, but all that work in the gym seems to be paying off. If I’m DeMar, I’d be on the phone with Dave Hopla for some private shooting instruction, doesn’t even matter what it costs; he’ll more than make up for it on his next contract if he develops a consistent mid-range game.

As much as I appreciate DeRozan’s recent emergence, he needs to work harder at other aspects the game. He has the physical/athletic prowess to be a tremendous defensive player for the Raptors on the wing. One area of immediate improvement could be his ball distribution when he drives through the paint and gets doubled; passing to an open shooter could rack up easy assists for him.
Edge: Magic

Small Forward
The Turkoglu we played in the win against the Suns won’t be the same one we play tonight in Orlando. This one thrives in half-court offenses that afford him room and space to create for others off that high pick-n-roll. He’s not the same Hedo that went to the NBA finals either, but a triple-double and a 17 assist game since coming back can’t be overlooked.

I worry about the pick-n-roll defense, since Bargnani will struggle to both hedge on Hedo, as well as defend a rolling Howard. There will be lots of defensive slack for Julian Wright to pick up, and he needs to be up for the task. I like that Wright is long and can fight through screens a bit more aggressively then we’ve become accustomed too.

Wright (and Kleiza if he’s healthy) will also have to battle Hedo on the boards where he does a great job of complimenting Howard. Full Disclosure: even though I felt like a dirty traitor, I picked up Hedo on waivers, and he’s done very well for me. The guy contributes all over the map, with the only knock being he doesn’t play defense at a high-level.

Oh yea, watch the three; he’s been shooting it at over 44% since getting traded.
Edge: Magic

Power Forward
I really thought Johnson and Davis would bring the goods against the Spurs, and to a degree they did, but they clearly got their butts handed to them on a platter by Dajuan Blair, who’s an absolute beast. Notwithstanding Blair, the Raps front court did a pretty good job (minus Bargnani’s contribution).

Tell me you don’t like the pairing of Amir and Ed Up front. Defense and rebounding aren’t an issue, with the offense looking a bit more fluid with DeRozan taking the lions share of the responsibility. I appreciate them putting it all on the floor, and growing into their roles as guys who contribute across the board as important role players (Davis might prove to be more given the chance, Amir is what he is).

I’m willing to bet that Amir/Ed will be checking Howard during key stretches of the game, and probably doing a better job of it than Bargs. I also like Howard checking either of them on defense, since they live in the paint, and can substitute in and out quickly to give Dwight fresh legs to constantly deal with. Not saying they will score on him at will, but they are active and could force Dwight into some early foul trouble.
Edge: Toronto

Center
It gave me the warm-fuzzies when Triano decided to flex some coaching muscle, and benching Bargnani when it was clear he was hurting the team. Lets hope Bargnani got the message loud and clear. That said, Bargnani isn’t the kind of the player who can fall back on other aspects of his game when the shots aren’t falling. 90% of his effectiveness comes from his scoring, and if he’s not shooting well, then he’s as useless as Arsenalist cruising at Hemingways on a Friday night.

The shot needs to be there tonight from the tip, since Bass/Anderson have no chance checking him on the perimeter. He can shoot over both, and back both down into the paint for short turn-around-half-hooks. Even off the dribble, no one on the Magic can check the guy. He’s got so much offensive ability, it’s really comical he doesn’t average 25 a game consistently. A lot of that comes from his sick tendencies of stepping inside the arc and launching low percentage jumpers; his efficiency crashes when this happens.
Edge: Magic

Keys to the Game

Defend the Pick-n-Roll Aggressively
It’s going to come hard, and with a lot of furry.  The guy being screened will have to fight through them, and the guy defending the picker will have to hedge and buy some time for the defense to recover and set itself.

Perimeter Defense
Dwight Howard commands so much attention, that Magic shooters get a lot of looks, good ones, from the perimeter. Pick-n-roll defense is one aspect of this, another is how many doubles we through at Howard in the paint. The Magic are surprisingly 25th in the league in assists, so their offense is a lot of catch-and-shoots, which doesn’t give a lot of time for defensive rotations to play catch-up.

Don’t Give Hedo any Satisfaction
Easier said than done with the team he’s playing on, but I don’t want to see him smiling and laughing it up because of he’s on route to a triple-double.

The Line

The gamblers have the Magic as 11.5 point favourites, with an over/under of 207. The Magic play a slow pace, but are deliberate and damn efficient at it. The Raptors can’t spot them 10 points to start the game, since they will grind the game to slower pace, and pick us apart. Not much hope here tonight; just need to play our game and keep developing good habits. Since we got the Heat tomorrow night, you might see Triano shut things down if the Magic run away with this early to keep guys as fresh as possible for Bosh & co.

The Raptors are back on a roll after beating both the Knicks and the Mavericks in convincing fashion on the weekend. Tonight they are in Cleveland on the first night of a back-to-back against the Mavs. I always thought that the win we had over the Cavs was a disservice to this team because it made a lot of people think the Raptors were better than they actually were. The fact of the matter is that Cleveland was playing the second game of a back-to-back, the first of which was an intense season opener to the Celtics.

While it was a quality win against an elite team, it by no means meant that the Raptors were destined for 50 wins and such. All it meant was that we were able to take advantage of a tired/oldish team who were playing their second game in two nights while trying to integrate a new piece (Shaq) into a team that didn’t know what to do with him. Since that game, the Cavs have gone 30-10, and are sitting pretty at the top of the East.

Don’t think they’ve forgotten about the beating we laid down on them earlier in the season. When asked about tonight’s game, Mo Williams said:

We’re playing at a different level. So are [the Raptors] — 10 of their last 13, they’ve won. They’re playing well. But, at the same time, we feel like we owe them. They handed us a loss, and you always want to use that as motivation. That’s what we’re doing.

A motivated Cavs team scares me, really. This will be a redemption game for the Cavs who are playing some great basketball, 7-3 over their last 10 and 31-11 on the year. Of their 11 losses, 5 of them are on the road to .500+ Western Conference teams; and 2 of them are against the Bobcats who seem to have their number for some reason.

You might remember the Saturday loss to Utah where some dude named Sundiata Gaines hit the games winning three with no time left on the clock.

Tonight, the Raptors need to bring a lot of what they had in the first game, namely an aggressive Bargnani. With Bargnani playing the way he has been, the Raptors front line has a big advantage in terms of speed, quickness and outside shooting. Shaq/Ilgauskas have no chance in hell of covering whoever Varajeo isn’t. If the Cavs send the double, the Raptors will kick it out and share the ball like they did against the Mavs.

The high pick-and-roll becomes even more important in this scenario since neither has a chance in hell of doing anything but getting called for a foul. Varajeo is the only person on that front line who makes me nervous, and he has been having a great stretch over the last 10 games, posting 9.7pts and 9.2rebs on 36-71 shooting, all those shots coming inside 8 feet.

When it comes to LeBron, you just hope you can keep him on the perimeter and let him shoot the Cavs out of the game. While he had a triple-double that last game against the Raptors, he was 7-19 from the field (1-5 3pt) and 8-14 from the line. Hardly the kind of the line that would force you to defend the shot. I say let him shoot all he wants, bait him to shoot but provide heavy coverage on drives, this way he wont be able to get into the lane then Hit Parker/Williams/West with a kick out for an open jumper. Easier said than done of course.

As far as Hedo goes, 8pts 4rebs 6ast on 2-9 shooting isn’t going to cut it. While those are decent numbers and got us a win over the Mavs, a guy making $10mil should be providing more, and with LeBron probably notching another triple-double, Turkoglu needs to really step up. We can only hope he doesn’t have pizza for lunch today.

I’m looking for DeRozan to continue his strong play from the Dallas outing where his shot was popping. I’d liked to see him take it to Parker and try get the old mans legs weary. Run through the lane and around some low pics for a catch-and-shoot around the elbow.

The Cavs are -9.5 favourites with an over/under of 203. This is another test for the Raptors, but not a must win. We can only hope that if the game is out of hand by the 2nd half, that Triano will rest the starters (and Jose) in hopes of being as fresh as possible tomorrow against Milwaukee.

Oh, I can’t wait to see Jamario Moon jack a couple bad jumpers when he should have swung the ball. That really makes me happy.