The Cavs are 3-2, and the Raptors should be 3-2; this is going to be an interesting season to say the least. The other night I had a thought that really made me uncomfortable; what if the Raptors win more games than they should? There are already lots of interesting themes developing (insider required). Couple that with the number of absolutely brutal teams there are in the east, and the solid effort being turned in so far game after game, and you could make the case that the Raptors could surprise and over achieve this season; jeopardizing their lottery status in the summer.

I know there are positives to both sides of this coin, but I’d rather grab at least one more solid draft pick, then try to make a run at things; need as many horses as you can get.

The Cavs frontcourt kept them in the game against the Raptors on opening night, grabbing 15 offensive rebounds, but an even attack from the Raptors spurred by ball movement (35 assists) and solid defensive rotations were more than they could handle.

Match-ups

Point Guard
Irving showed signs of promise, but he’s just not ready to be handed the reigns just yet. Sessions hurt the Raptors with his dribble penetration and three point shooting; nothing from mid-range. Calderon needs to close-out on him faster, and force him into a waiting defender. Same thing with Gibson, except I’d he’s less of a threat to get to the rack. Bayless will be a game-time decision, but the Raptors could use some of his off the bounce attack to mix things up and keep the Cavs defense guessing. Anthony Carter will be counted on to provide spurts of solid relief. I’m the first to admit I was wrong about his effectiveness; a couple minutes here and there is doable for the guy.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
Every Time DeRozan took the ball to the rim, he either scored or got put on the line. The Cavs don’t have the shot blocking ability to challenge DeMar when he gets to the rim. He has to keep on attacking Anthony Parker, who just doesn’t have  the foot speed to keep up. Barbosa will do the same to Gibson, who I can’t recall doing anything of value in the first game.
Edge: Raptors

Small Forward
Butler and Johnson did a good job of keeping Casspi off the board, and he hasn’t done much this season since, but  some guy named Alonzo Gee stepped up for the Cavs. With the performances that Butler has turned in the last games, the small forward spot is stabilizing some. As long as whoever is manning the 3-spot puts defense first, and tries to avoid taking retarded shots, the Raptors should do well.
Edge: Even

Power Forward
A repeat performance from Jamison would go a long way tonight; Bargnani and Davis kept Antawn to 6-20 shooting from the field. Bargnani couldn’t find his shot last week against the Cavs, but has since remedied that. With him going to the rack as often as he’s popping jumpers, he will be putting a lot of pressure on the Cavs frontcourt to step-up. The Raptors would have the frontcourt locked if Ed Davis would just come back. Since his solid performance against the Cavs last week, the sophomore has all but vanished. He could find his game tonight against the only team he’s played well against this season; I hope anyways. It was great to see Tristan Thompson play well, and he’s done a pretty good job so far considering, but the Cavs overstepped in taking him 4th with Valanciunas and Vesely on the board.
Edge: Raptors

Center
I foolishly didn’t give the Cavs the edge at center last game, and was proved wrong. Varejao still has a great deal to offer, putting up 14pts 10rebs (7 offensive) almost single handedly keeping the Cavs hanging around and in the game. Things have looked downhill for Amir since the first two games of the season, and there wasn’t much there for Magloire to begin with. Varejao will do his best to keep them in the game, but the Cavs have less talent than the Raptors.
Edge: Cavaliers

The Line

The gamblers have the Raptors as 4 point favourites, with an over/under of 190. The Cavs and Raptors have found themselves to be in an interesting situation so far this season. Both are doing better than expected, and playing hard. The Cavs took advantage of an easier schedule, beating the Pistons, Nets and Bobcats. The Raptors on the other hand should be 3-2 heading into tonight’s game. Bet the line; Raptors win 92-86.

Can’t knock the hustle, as long as they keep playing hard that is. This is the 1st game in a season of opportunities at changing this teams culture, perception and attitude. From the rise of Bargnani, to tight(ish) defensive rotations, to Calderon giving a rest to the clapping hands-defense, things are on the up-and-up. This season wont be defined by wins or losses; it’s all about step one, and that tone will need to be set against the Cavs tonight.

(I’m still stunned that two pre-season games and a handful of interviews with Casey have changed my view of this team for the better)

Match-ups

Point Guard
As bad as Calderon was defensively, there were always guys who made him look like Gary Payton; Ramon Sessions is one of those guys. The guy can’t move laterally (zero pick-and-roll defense), is not much of an athlete, but manages to do most of his offensive damage in the paint. His jumper isn’t great, so Calderon can afford to play off of him a bit, and force him to beat the Raps with a jumper; I can live with that strategy even if he drops 20 in the process. Keeping him off the pick-n-roll, where he can do more damage, is paramount.
Edge: Raptors

Shooting Guard
Anthony Parker is still the starter for the Cavs, but they are pretty deep at the 2 (Boobie off the bench). DeMar should have no problem’s whatsoever with anyone the Cavs throw at him. I’m cutting this short, between DeRozan, Barbosa and Butler, the Raptors have the depth and the ability to throw enough different looks at the Cavs to keep them off balance the whole night.
Edge: Raptors

Small Forward
Omri Casspi is someone I would have loved the Raptors to pick up in the off-season, and it didn’t cost the Cavs much; JJ Hickson. We could have easily have made a similar offer of Amir Johnson had we known Aaron Gray was in the play fo us. Regardless, he will give James Johnson a hell of a time on the floor. He is a solid rebounder, and makes his jumpers; keeping Johnson out on the perimeter and a step further from swatting his weak-side blocked shots.
Edge: Cavs

Power Forward
Don’t know enough about Thompson and Harangody to really give my two cents here, but Jamison will drop his 18pts/7reb tonight, I have no doubt. That said, he will surrender 24pts/8rebs on the other end, take that how you will. The 36 year old will hit a couple annoying off-balance floaters that somehow hit the bottom of the mesh, but will provide little value other than being a mentor for Tristan. I like Bargnani and Davis in the match-up as they both will give a little flavour on the perimeter and in the paint.
Edge: Raptors

Center
Varejao has the ability to do nothing the entire game, then grab an offensive rebound and put it back for the win with less than a second left on the clock. I would love to have him play for the Raptors. I think he would be fantastic to lineup with Bargnani in the front court as he can make a lot of hustle plays and win small battles all over the floor. I don’t see this game being won by Cavs at the 5, at best, they draw even with the Raptors centers…that’s just me (Varejao missed most of last season with an injury)
Edge: Raptors

The Line

I was stunned to see it, but Vegas has the Cavs as 3.5 point favourites with an over/under of 197. It’s super unlikely that this game will be in the mid-to high 90s, so go with the under. I personally think the Raptors take this by 5 in an ugly win. Of the first 10 games we play this year, 3 of them are winnable (two against the Cavs), while this team probably wont win 30% of their games this year, 3-7 in the early going is doable.

Hopefully league pass broadband works tonight, Arse has the post-game.

Photo Credit: Associated Press