Bucks Down Tired Raptors, Just One More Game to Go

Watching last night's game, I found myself evaluating the Raptors strictly in terms of what they can do for us in the future.

Raptors 86, Bucks 93 – Box

It must be difficult to get yourself up for Game 81 of a 22-win season. Listening to the crowd for game 80, and assessing my own feelings while getting ready to cover game 81, I could definitely understand if the players for two non-playoff bound teams were performing at slightly below peak-levels tonight. The Bucks will finish ninth in the East, missing a golden opportunity to sneak into the playoffs with even just one hot streak, while the Raptors are down to roughly half a healthy roster and are in a battle for ping-pong balls.

As it is, the Raptors were also on the second night of a back-to-back, a day after their flight was delayed getting into Milwaukee. With only eight warm bodies ready to play, only one of whom played on opening night back on October 27, tonight’s version of the Raptors were far different from what we thought we’d see this year. Solomon Alabi, Joey Dorsey, and Julian Wright were forced into action; Ed Davis has since returned from injury; Jerryd Bayless, Alexis Ajinca, and James Johnson have since been acquired. Meanwhile, Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Jose Calderon, Reggie Evans, Sonny Weems, Linas Kleiza, and Leandro Barbosa have been bitten by injuries, while Jarrett Jack and David Andersen have moved on.

Add up that kind of in-season roster turmoil and that many inuries, as well as what is one of the league’s youngest and least experienced rostesr, and it’s no wonder that the Raptors will finish with the third worst record in franchise history (behind their first and third seasons). While I’ll save the post-season poetics for after game 82 on Wednesday, this will be my last post-game of the year. I finish with a record of 1-12 in games I cover, and after covering 12 all-too-similar losses it feels like we’ve all rehashed the same game-by-game topics, so forgive me if my analysis is a little forward-thinking. Watching last night’s game, I found myself evaluating the Raptors strictly in terms of what they can do for us in the future.

Speaking of the future, this loss coupled with a Wizards win (over the Celtics, who curiously rested their four best players even though they still had a chance to secure the number two seed in the East) should help the Raptors’ bid for the third best lottery odds this offseason. They are now one game ahead of the Wizards in the inverse standings. The Wizards close out against a Cavaliers team that will actually be looking to lose – they beat the Pistons tonight and lost their tie with Minnesota for the best lottery odds – while the Raptors host the Miami Heat, who will still need the win to guarantee themselves home court advantage in a potential Finals matchup with the Lakers and Mavericks. The importance of that can’t really be overstated, since Heat/Lakers is a popular Finals pick, and it seems completely reasonable that such a series would stretch to seven games. I’m not saying that’s my prediction, but it’s a reason for the Heat to beat the Raptors, securing us the third best lottery odds in the process.

Jerryd Bayless was my main focus when watching tonight. When he was first acquired, I jumped the gun in claiming he should take on the starting role to better acclimate himself with the young starting unit and begin to build chemistry for the future. I was under the impression the Raptors were still shopping Jose Calderon, and stupidly believed Jose’s early season struggles were legitimate. I admit, I spoke far too soon. Tonight he took over the scoring load in the second half, but it completely unravelled late in the fourth when Bayless committed three straight turnovers (two lost balls and an offensive foul), allowing Brandon Jennings to go on a personal 6-0 run. To that point Bayless had outplayed him, but in the end it was probably a wash, or an edge to Jennings on efficiency alone (7/16 for 21 points versus Jerryd’s 7/20 for 20).

Still, people have been impressed with Bayless’ play when forced into the starting role. Over 13 starts, he’s averaged roughly 18-4-7 with 2.5 turnovers, 47% shooting, and 5.5 free throw attempts per game. Jose, for comparison’s sake, averages 9.8-3-8.9 with 2.2 turnovers, 44% shooting, and just 1.5 free throw attempts per game. Jose shoots 37% from long range, an advantage over Bayless’ 34%. The numbers clearly illustrate two very different point guards; Jose is much more of a distributor and facilitator, while Bayless is a score-first creator. Both roles have their place, and Bayless is a marginally better defender, but despite the gaudy scoring numbers I don’t think I’ve seen enough from Bayless that I would skip a high-upside point guard in the draft. It will probably be a case where the Raptors take whoever they feel is the best player at their pick, regardless of position, and work out any roster imbalances afterward.

Ed Davis continued to show improvement and an ability to get over the rookie wall he hit a few weeks back. His 15-and-11 tonight pushes his April averages to roughly 14-and-9, and he has shot 60% for the month. Lately he seems less hesitant with his jumpshot, although that only holds true as far as the free throw line. It’s easy to forget that Davis missed a ton of key development time with his wrist injury in college, and then the injury that kept him out of training camp and the start of the season. With a full offseason of unrestricted work on his game, I’m excited about what tools Davis will be able to add offensively, and what size he might be able to add to help on the defensive end.

DeMar DeRozan had one of his worst games of late, shooting 4/14 but getting to the line 10 times to finish with 17 points. While I understand that most of his statistical improvement has been in the “points per game” column only, I couldn’t believe that he didn’t even get a mention in John Hollinger’s Most Improved article (he named 16 players). DeRozan’s PER has improved from 12.58 to 14.64, an appreciable jump considering his usage rate has ballooned from 16.2 to 21.1 (it is generally difficult to maintain efficiency as usage increases). His points-per-40 minutes has been the key driver, moving to 19.8, a near-elite level. If he can add any semblance of a three-point shot to his game, he’ll be considered an elite scorer at this time next season. Of course, contributions in other areas would also be appreciated.

Joey Dorsey was the only other player who differentiated himself tonight, grabbing a ridiculous 20 rebounds to go with 10 points. While that’s a phenomenal stat line, he had 10 offensive boards and shot just 3/12. He could have just as easily had a 16-16 game with a bit more touch around the rim. Dorsey should always have a place towards the end of an NBA bench as an extra big body, someone who can rebound and play tough, if not overly skilled, defense in the post. Whether that future is with the Raptors or not is yet to be seen, but it will likely depend on what direction the Raptors head in with the draft and with free agents Reggie Evans and Alexis Ajinca (and, I suppose, if they see anything at all in Solomon Alabi).

As for Ajinca and Alabi, I haven’t seen much from either that screams roster spot, but I guess both may have some upside. Ajinca has shown range but little willingness to play in the paint, while Alabi is obviously extremely raw and needs a good deal more seasoning.

I should be back sometime following the season with some more detailed long-term thoughts, but for now I’ll just say it’s been a pleasure covering 13 games for the site this year, 12 of them excruciating. This is one of the best communities of fans for any team on the internet, and one of the best writing teams to work with as well. Enjoy game 82 and what should be a phenomenal playoff season.