I’m trying to recall a time when the Raptors were in a position where they needed to spend money or make a major move, didn’t, and paid for it. The only recent instance of this scenario might have been the 2007-08 trade deadline, when the lone move the club made was to trade Juan Dixon for Primoz Brezec. I recall fans at the time desperately wanting a legitimate big man, and/or a wing to gear us up for the playoffs after Garbajosa’s injury. Later in the year, for some reason, they signed Linton Johnson which was met with indifference of the highest order.
The truth is that there haven’t been many cases where the franchise has been in a position to spend money that’ll matter. The Raptors have been so bad for so long, that who they sign in free-agency will likely have little to no impact on the end-product of the campaign. And when they do throw money around, or make high profile trades, they tend to backfire. The examples are plentiful, Turkoglu and O’Neal are the big ones, Jack, Kapono are the less glamorous ones. As has been pointed out by everyone over the last few years, and is currently being realized by Colangelo, wheeling and dealing is not the answer.
You usually make big splashes in free-agency/trade for three main reasons: 1) to try to get over the hump (Gasol for the Lakers, Marion for Dallas), 2) to put yourself on the map (Carmelo to New York, LeBron joining Wade in Miami), or 3) find that missing piece that takes you from pseudo-contender to contender. Unfortunately, the Raptors have been trying to nail trade type #3 and have failed time and time again. In fairness, this is probably the hardest type of acquisition to make, because you’re trying to import an established player who you need to mesh with your existing established player. Tough task because it usually requires personal sacrifice, a tremendous amount of planning and research, and hoping that the incalculable intangible known as chemistry smiles on you.
The safer bet, of course, is to start from scratch and build your way up through the draft. Jonas Valanciunas, Ed Davis, and DeMar DeRozan symbolize this shift in the Raptors’ strategy, especially when compared to the trio of Jermaine O’Neal, Hedo Turkoglu, and Shawn Marion. The last three were asked to fit into what was already happening with the club (Chris Bosh), and instead of a melting pot of synergy, we got served a mixed salad of shit. Will Valanciunas, Davis and DeRozan come through better than their predecessors? Nobody quite knows, but what we can all agree on is that talent is a prerequisite to being part of something special, so for the sake of argument let’s pose the question of whether the aggregate talent of those three will ever equal that of Turkoglu, O’Neal and Marion.
Gut-feeling is no. Ed Davis’s best-case scenario is projected to be someone like Al Horford, or Jermaine O’Neal, realistically though, it’s someone like Udonis Haslem. DeMar DeRozan could become a good scorer in the league, however nobody will ever suggest he’ll be half the defender Marion is at the ripe old age of 33. Fingers crossed he’s a Joe Johnson, but even then, it’s a little underwhelming. Hedo Turkoglu has talent, he just happens to be lazy. The only X-Factor in all of this is Jonas Valanciunas, who comes hype intact. He’s quickly become the wildcard in the Raptors rebuild, because everyone else on the team is coming into sharper focus and revealing themselves to be mediocre to slightly above-average NBA players.
I don’t want to discount Bargnani in all of this, and will for his benefit view his career through a historical perspective. You could easily argue that it was unfair of the club to make him the #2 heading into the 2007-08 season. The only meaningful acquisition the Raptors made that summer was Jason Kapono (Jamario Moon was the other), the rest was just hoping the team would take a step forward based on experience. That was probably the summer where the Raptors had a chance to add that “second star” for Bosh, and let Bargnani develop slowly instead of burdening him with responsibility. After all, it was his second season in the NBA and he was a fresh foreign product. Five years later, and he’s one of the guys that has pretty much revealed himself to be what he’s always going to be.
So yeah, Jonas. As young, unproven, and raw as he is, he could right now be considered to have the highest “ceiling” of anyone on the roster.