Statophile 38 | Snapshot – Keen on Kyle

2 mins read

How does Lowry rank with other free agent point guards?

So we pooched our Fields/Nash analysis. It did end up in a situation where New York could, in theory, still obtain Nash, but it required Phoenix to take on a lot of parts (and NY having to give up Shumpert). Almost media outlets (as well as myself), didn’t fully consider (although our team did) the Lakers TPE – largely as the Lakers would have already over $70 million in salaries committed for next year to five players, two being World Peace and Blake. It completely makes sense for Nash given his “criteria”, but the Lakers will have to be shrewd to round out their roster.

More importantly, it meant the Raptors rapidly moved towards “Plan B”. And, in some respects, its a much better one.

The following charts compare six key free agent point guards. The first section is based on “per 36 minutes” numbers while the second section is “advanced” metrics (click on image for full view).

Source: basketball-reference.com

My original post was going to be why I believe Lowry would be a *much* better addition then Dragic. Lowry matches Dragic in most metrics and is a much better rebounder and gets to the line much more. Lowry is a steal compared to Dragic’s $8.5 million average salary over 4 years. Houston was wise to pass on Dragic in favour of Lin’s $7.2 million average salary over 4 years.

In terms on adjusted +/-, Lowry also screens very well:

Source: basketballvalue.com

Goran Dragic’s adjusted +/- is more mixed and it appears he is as good of a defender.

And what about his numbers versus a 25 year old Nash?

Source: basketball-reference.com

Kyle Lowry may be the steal of the free agent class offseason.

Questions? There is a dedicated to “Statophile Q&A” forum thread here . If you prefer to send questions privately, you’re welcome to email me at tomliston [at] gmail [dot] com or find me on Twitter (@Liston).

Addendum (7/6/2012 8am): Here’s a link comparing Lowry and Jerryd Bayless. Many similar numbers.

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