Budding big man Jonas Valanciunas, as was to be expected from Raptor fans and NBA insiders in general, posted a landmark 2013/2014 campaign. The kinks in the armour weren’t completely ironed out – it was, after all, his second season in the league – but a number of important boxes were checked that demonstrated it wasn’t just blind faith leading the fanbase’s belief that he could, indeed, become the cornerstone of a frontline not seen in these parts since Chris Bosh (and defensively, maybe ever).
That being said, like fellow soph Terrence Ross, it’s the steps that he will (hopefully) take this season that will help push this Raptor squad to the next level. I’d argue that Jonas’ internal development will likely be the storyline of the Raptors’ season, personnel-wise – with the franchise relying on continuity to pay big dividends this year, nobody has a chance to step up quite like Jonas. Unlike Ross, Jonas’ ceiling seems to be the third star that the Raps desperately need to contend with the conference’s big boys, and if his offseason is any indication: working with Hakeem Olajuwon, a few trips down to the Drew League, and an impressive performance in the FIBA World Cup; there’s plenty of reason to be excited.
Before we move on to this year, though, let’s take a quick look at the season that was for Mr. Valanciunas:
2013-14 Stats Recap:
Regular Season:
- PPG: Increased to 11.3 points (from 8.9)
- Field Goal Percentage: Decreased to .537 (from .557)
- Attempts per game: Increased to 8.3 (from 5.9)
- Rebounds Per Game: Increased to 8.8 (from 6.0)
- Minutes: Increased to 28.2 (from 23.9)
Post Season:
- Averaged 10.9/9.7/0.3 in 28.6 minutes per game, on .633 shooting. Dominated the Nets’ bigs at times and was a major reason why they chose to go small for much of the series.
Highlights:
Only one real option here:
Strengths:
Jonas isn’t a particularly elite player in any aspect of the game (yet), but is solid in all aspects. His rebound positioning was something that really stuck out to me last year – his numbers aren’t elite quite yet in that department, but he would gobble down boards in bunches while he was out there, giving a perimeter-oriented Raptors squad a license to bomb away. His offensive game wasn’t quite what you’d call refined, but was certainly effective. Let’s be honest: if you can tell me how this pump fake works so often, you’re either lying or a basketball savant. For the most part, his points came off put-backs and drives to the hoop, which is certainly a positive in that a) it’s quite consistent from night to night and b) indicates that his game on that end of the floor will continue to improve as more tools are added.
Growing into a bigger role on the defensive end, Jonas showed some positive signs on that end, as well, particularly in man coverage. He’s still prone to getting blown by by wing players and biting on the fakes of some of the league’s most skilled big men – it’s part of the reason why the defensive-minded Amir Johnson is still likely a better frontcourt partner for him than Patrick Patterson – but there are certainly indicators that he could one day become the anchor the Raptors need (his quick feet, for one – the guy moves so well, for a big man).
At the FIBA World Championships, Jonas showed off what he can do as the focal point of the offence (albeit against lesser competition), averaging 14.4 points and over 8 boards a contest. He also showed off some versatility in the post that we didn’t see often last year, and got into a hilarious shoving match with DeMarcus Cousins.
Areas to improve:
As stated earlier, the Raptors’ development this season relies largely on Jonas’ ability to internally improve. Working with Hakeem Olajuwon on his post game is a great first step – an added versatility on the offensive end will force him into more of a focal role on offence, which is imperative in providing balance to the team’s wing-dominant scoring. Defensively, Jonas will need to be far better in help situations without increasing his foul rate. It’s hovered at about 3 per game over his first two season in the league, which is fine, but with his minutes almost surely increasing (we’ll get to that in a minute), it’s imperative that it stays there while he takes on a bigger role defensively. The best version of this Raptors showcases Jonas as a real two-way threat, and while he’s close, a little bit of polish is likely all it will take for him to hit the marks needed.
2014-15 Outlook:
As Jonas goes, the Raptors go. It’s that simple, really. The team’s lack of depth at centre has been well documented in this space and others, and barring a massive surprise from Lucas Nogueira, Jonas will need to take the lion’s share of the minutes in order to keep the Raptors without a below-average player on the floor for stretches (and to limit Amir’s minutes).
To do that, he’ll have to do a few things, namely improving his defensive presence under the rim in more perimeter-heavy lineups featuring Patrick Patterson at the 4 – he averaged less than a block a game last year, which just won’t cut it. His effectiveness at sliding over to help opposing cutters will also help keep offensively effective, yet defensively deficient players like DeMar DeRozan and (kind of) Terrence Ross from being exposed. Keep the scorers on the floor, and you score points, which means you win games.
It would be fantastic to see offensive improvement, as well, as that’s likely going to be what establishes Jonas as a pillar of the franchise. I’d love to see the team feature him more often in post-up situations, but that’s a two way street – you have to earn your touches. I’d argue that he’s earned more than he’s gotten in year one and two (and Casey’s sometimes head-scratching rotations don’t help), but showcasing an ability to do more than pump fake (maybe even hit a few mid-rangers?) and crash the rim hard is a simple and expected, yet essential, step forward in his development.
Expect big things from Jonas next year. Season 3 is typically when everything starts coming together for NBA bigs, and Jonas’ shortcomings can be easily filled with a focus on development, which has never been a red flag in his case. The floor here is a solid starting centre, so work upward from that: can he be Roy Hibbert? Andre Drummond? Better?
Be excited, Raptors fans. You should be excited. The hype train was cranked up to max last season for Jonas’ development, but this is the year he really starts to take it home. Barring injury, it’ll be great fun to continue to watch one of the game’s budding stars figure out how to go from “solid with great potential” to simply great.
