It’s a battle of the East’s two remaining undefeated teams. The Raptors come off a win in Orlando and the Heat have just beaten Philly the night before. Both teams are on a back-to-back. Let’s quickly run down the lineups:
Bosh/Valanciunas: Bosh likes to operate from the elbow and Valanciunas will have some issues staying with his pump-fakes. If I’m Jonas, I try to test Bosh’s defense in the block. Jonas has the ability of isolating people near the rim and using a hook, and needs to do that. Of course, Dwane Casey has to agree with that approach and actually prescribe the touches. Make Bosh work, you know he doesn’t like to play man-defense, so make him do it. The ex-Raptor has been on fire in his two games this season, and this is where it ends.
Deng/Ross: Ross has had a slow start to the season, but has hit some key threes in the opening two games. I’m not liking Ross’s defense against bigger wings like Deng, to me he’s more suited to guard smaller guys. Deng is ruthless going to the rim, but has a tendency to fall away from the game if he’s frustrated early. I suspect some James Johnson action here.
Shawne Williams/Amir Johnson: Two lanky guys who don’t have plays called for them, this is a matchup of length and whoever wins the battle of the boards, plays some defense, and manages to stay out of foul trouble will have the greater impact.
Wade/Shawne Williams/DeRozan: I’m guessing DeRozan will be checked by Williams, but who knows. DeRozan will have trouble getting off his post-up game against a 6’10” guy, but at the same time this should be an opportunity for him to show off his improved handles against a guy who he should be quicker than. If he’s guarded by Wade, he needs to use his reach on defense and not bite on those head/shoulder/pump fakes that Wade is so good at. Make Wade shooter over you, not as you’re coming down after he’s pump-faked you. On the other end, Dwane Wade’s knees are in no position to stop DeRozan’s post-up game, so let’s see what he does with that.
Lowry/Cole: Lowry had a late push in Orlando to pull the Raptors through, and we might need him again. Cole is all about pressure defense and Lowry is great at reacting to pressure and bursting to the rim. This should be a great, energetic matchup which Lowry will be up for. It’s critical for Lowry to keep the turnovers to a minimum because the Heat are great at running it back.
It’s an early season test for the Raptors, and if we win this, we get some serious attention in the East. With the Bulls off to a slow start (lucky to win in Minnesota) and the Cavaliers dropping one at home, this would give the Raptors an early advantage in the East and send a strong statement.
The Raptors defense didn’t impress me against the Magic, and I’m hoping the bench gives the Raptors a push here. Patrick Patterson, who went 1-7 against the Magic is due for a big game, and going up against Josh McRoberts, Chris Anderson, and the like off the bench will give him more space to shoot from the perimeter, and hopefully he get his mojo going.
The advantage here for the Raptors has to be depth at the guards, though Mario Chalmers did play well off the bench against Philly. My key matchup here is Lou Williams vs Mario Chalmers, whoever ends up having a bigger impact, wins the bench and thus the game.
The line has Miami by 5.5, I say pick the Raptors.
That’s all the previewing I’m doing for this one. See you after the game.
