The Raptors have been able to right themselves after their two game skid, losing against Dallas and the Lakers, and are still in sole possession of the Eastern Conference lead, but there is still work to be done. And this is especially true with DeMar DeRozan out for an indefinite amount of time due to injury. The margin for error is now smaller.
Kyle Lowry has averaged 30 ppg since DeRozan went down, and it’s doubtful he will be able to sustain that for the entire time DeRozan is out. And it’s probably better for the team if he doesn’t have to.
While the Raptors are playing some of the best basketball in franchise history, there are a few areas they need to work on if they really want to be a contender come spring.
PASSING
The Raptors are currently tied for 23rd in the league in assists. And considering they have an above average pace, some good spot up shooters and big men who move well without the ball, that’s simply unacceptable.
Now, there are some explanations for the lack of assists. The Raptors, as a team, attempt the second most free throws in the league (largely thanks to DeRozan and Lowry, who average 14 FTA between them). You don’t tend to get assists off of free throws (except for and-ones). But that’s not the whole reason.
One culprit is Jonas Valanciunas, who is averaging just 0.5 assists per game and recently went 7 games in a row without notching an assist. That’s simply not good. Especially for a player whose burgeoning post game is becoming an important part of the Raptors’ offense. And to make it worse, opponents are going to realize that Valanciunas is a black hole and start double and triple teaming him immediately.
Part of Valanciunas’ problem is youth and inexperience. As the game slows down for him, he’ll be able to see the floor better and make quicker decisions. It happens to all players. But he also needs to make a concerted effort to look for his teammates instead of getting tunnel vision when he gets the ball.
But Valanciunas isn’t the only problem. The offense, while it still ranks among the best in the league, it still relies far too much on isolation plays. Of the top nine Raptor scorers, only three player’s, Valanciunas, Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson, got 50% or more of their points off assists. Compare that to the Bulls, who have six of the top nine scorers getting more than 50% of their points off assists. The Wizards, currently the East’s second best team, has seven.
While an isolation offense can work during the regular season, those teams too often underperform in the playoffs. With more time to prepare, it’s much easier for defenses to stop teams that don’t move the ball and rely on one-on-one play. One of the reasons the Spurs won the title last year was because of their superb passing.
When you’ve got such good pick and roll big men, in Amir and Valanciunas, Casey should be utilizing the pick and roll more than they do. Casey needs to vary the offense a bit more, create more player movement, which should allow for more and better passes.
DEFENSE
Keep in mind that the Raptors currently have a top ten defense, so it’s not as if they’re in need of major changes, but there are a couple of issues they need to work on. The first is the fact that they give up the ninth highest shooting percentage in the league, which is a big change over last season, when they were one of the best in that department. And they’re in the bottom third in the league in three point percentage allowed.
What’s more troubling about their poor three point defense is the fact that they also give up a lot more drives to the hoop than a good defensive team should. Some of this is gambling, but it’s also is due to players overhelping when the ball gets in the paint. Of course, this could be due to a lack of any real defensive force in the middle. Amir is a good defender, but he’s not going to intimidate many opponents inside, and Valanciunas is still learning. Sometimes he’s a good defender and intimidator, other times he is out of position too much to make a positive impact.
It’s not as if the Raptors don’t have some very good defensive players, in Amir, James Johnson, Terrence Ross and Kyle Lowry. But they lack that consistent intimidator inside that will make players think twice about driving. Again, Valanciunas MAY grow into this role, but until then, the Raptors could use some help in this department. Maybe if Bebe Nogueira could get some playing time…
REBOUNDING
Their rebounding is probably the least worrisome of their problems. They’re just a middle of the pack rebounding team and in the bottom third for defensive rebounding, but a lot of that can be explained by the fact that they allow the eighth least field goal attempts in the league. But they also only have one player in the top 75 for rebounds per game (Valanciunas, who is tied for 20th).
Amir is having the worst rebounding season since his rookie season, and, while his rebounding has consistently improved each season, DeRozan is still not grabbing enough rebounds for a player of his size and athletic ability.
The Raptors have had trouble keeping the better rebounding opponents off the boards, partly because the Raptor’s best rebounders are better offensive rebounders than defensive ones. They lack that solid defensive rebounder who will grab the ball to end the defensive possession. Especially when Valanciunas isn’t on the floor.
SUMMARY
While enjoying their success is important, they still need to continue to improve and become a better team if they want to continue their success into the playoffs. It’s doubtful any trades will be made, so the improvement needs to come from within.
