The New York Knicks are the soap opera you didn’t know you were watching.
According to an ESPN report, the Knicks don’t like each other, don’t like defence and don’t like Derek Fisher (because he makes them play defence.) The going-ons outside of the court are far more intriguing than the Knicks play, and their play has been pure schadenfreude. Throw in a rumour about Carmelo Anthony willing to waive his no-trade clause only 25 games into his contract and you have the most fun team on the East Coast. Really, how many teams can sign a player to a $125 million dollar contract and have whispers about his frustration only a month-and-a-half into the season?
The Knicks are bad. On a per possession basis, New York ranks 21st in offence and 27th in defence. Their pace is 29th in the league. They do not get to the line. Yes, they have had injuries to Jose Calderon, Carmelo and J.R. Smith, but they have just looked dysfunctional. Iman Shumpert suffered a dislocated shoulder injury on Friday too, just to top off New York’s woes.
This game offers an opportunity for Toronto to balance out the odometer for guys like Kyle Lowry. In three of the last four games, Lowry has played 39 minutes or more. With the depth Toronto has, there are no other players really pushing into that dangerous territory, but you want to save your guys when you can. Thrashing the Pacers allowed Lowry to log only 26 minutes — you would hope the Raptors can get him into a similar spot.
Still, the Knicks offer a threat. Any team featuring a top-ten player is capable of keeping pace with even the best teams in the league. Melo is limited because of the talent around him, but if he just plays hero ball for an entire night, there’s the possibility of him getting hot and rallying the Garden crowd.
Even if the Raptors get the Carmelo-goes-crazy game, there’s little chance the Knicks can get enough contributions from the rest of the roster to hang around. With that said, let’s look at the position match-ups.
Point Guard:
Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez — Jose Calderon, Pablo Prigioni
Lowry could get a good shot on every possession, given these match-ups. We know Calderon isn’t capable of defending a pick and roll and Prigioni isn’t much better. This is another opportunity for Lowry to rack up the assists because the Knicks defence is in a transition phase. Those issues are only accelerated by the young players being asked to play more minutes.
Advantage: Raptors
Shooting Guard:
Terrence Ross, Lou Williams — Tim Hardaway Jr., Shane Larkin
Ross has had good showings over the past three games, but the frustration with him is understandable. If Good Ross shows up, Toronto blows out the Knicks pretty quickly. If the lukewarm Ross shows up, it’ll be a slog in the first half. An aside: Ross is 23. DeRozan had similar consistency issues when he was 23 and the sentiments towards her were similar, but he had an increased usage rate. T-Ross has his issues (poor decision-making, does not drive enough) but patience is key.
The real boost is Lou Williams. The Knicks will not have an answer for the depth, partially because their team is poorly constructed and partially because they have been ravaged by injuries. Williams should come off the bench with an intent to score as he usually does, but he’ll find very little resistance on his way to the rim.
Hardaway is capable, but young. He either catches and shoots the ball (55% of his shots come without a dribble), or he dribbles for a while and stops the offence (16.6% of his shots happen after 3-6 dribbles). With Shumpert out, Hardaway will need to find his role in the starting line-up and reign in his shooting a bit.
Advantage: Raptors
Small Forward:
Landry Fields, James Johnson — Carmelo Anthony, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Fields hasn’t been terrible lately. James Johnson beat up on the Pacers’s soft wing rotation. Things are looking okay at the 3 spot for now.
We’re a couple games removed from LeBron’s dominating performance, and that’s my concern. Carmelo Anthony is obviously a talented scorer and a capable defender when he wants to be. Fields and Johnson are okay, but I don’t love the idea of Carmelo going after this pair for 40 minutes — and given their injuries, it’s probably going to be 40 minutes.
Maybe Johnson starts this game, but I doubt it. No real reason to change what is currently working. My reason for starting Fields over Johnson is that Landry is a great cutter and Melo’s attentiveness wavers throughout the game. A dream scenario: Fields cuts, Melo, not wholly engaged, is a step late, commits a foul. Force Derek Fisher to either bench Anthony and watch his offence stagger around, or keep Melo on the floor and punt any chance of him playing help defence.
Advantage: Knicks, but depth narrows the gap
Power Forward:
Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson — Quincy Acy, Jason Smith
Not much to say here. If healthy Amir shows up, he can rack up points through rolling to the basket of screens for Lowry and Vasquez. Toronto will only need an average performance against the Knicks, as their semi-competent triangle offence tries to figure out what to do without any wing players. I expect some wing isolation sets for Carmelo, even if they’ve gotten away from those this year.
Acy isn’t much to worry about. I think some Raptors fans will see him as “one that got away” but he’s just a replacement-level four man this year. Jason Smith is a decent fit offensively, but he’s a liability on the boards and Amir should exploit that.
Patterson could maintain his great play as I don’t have much faith in the Knicks ability to recover in pick-and-pop plays. Depending on Amir’s health, this may be Toronto’s biggest advantage.
Advantage: Raptors
Center:
Jonas Valanciunas, Chuck Hayes — Amar’e Stoudemire, Samuel Dalembert
JV has three consecutive double-doubles and should absolutely get his fourth in this game. The Knicks are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league and Val averages three o-boards a game. He had six against Indiana and five against Cleveland. No reason he shouldn’t be able to do something similar tonight.
Stoudemire is just a stopgap guy right now. He isn’t close to what he was and without the athleticism, his feel for the game has evaporated. At least he knows his limits and understands his role. Dalembert … not so much. I’ve tried to avoid Knicks games when I can, but in the games I have watched, Dalembert has done at least one thing on offence that I’d describe as “incredibly irresponsible.” His defence is mediocre; he gets a block a game but is a mess in help situations.
The Raptors strategy of going into the post early will be effective. It isn’t pretty, but it works. Feed the Lithuanian beast.
Advantage: Raptors
Keys to victory:
- Push the ball: The Knicks do not like to run — as I’ve said above, they are near the bottom of the league in pace — and with limited reserves, it makes sense to try and gas them.
- Crash the glass: New York’s defence is bad and there may not be many missed shots, but the Raptors should make a concerted effort to clean up any misses.
- Contain the three: While I’ve bagged on the Knicks quite a bit, they deserve credit for their three-point shooting. Ninth in the league is a good mark and with the quick triggers of guys like Calderon, Hardaway and Anthony, Toronto can’t sleep on kickouts.
Bruno & Bebe watch: red alert
Give New York what they want: BRUNO!
Prediction: Raptors by 23.
