Unrelated to this post, check out this article by RealGM regarding James Johnson’s road back into the NBA – it’s fantastic with lots of quotes.
Given it’s Christmas and everyone’s off, the site was scheduled to be empty today and I figured I’d change that. I decided on checking up on two popular narratives that are in play this season, and see if they in fact hold any water.
Narrative: Vasquez and Williams Don’t Play D
Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, and Tyler Hansbrough. This is the second-most used five-man unit the Raptors have used this season, only behind the regular starters. It’s made up entirely of bench players and happens to outscore its opponents a whopping 71.4% of times, which is the highest percentage for any lineup on the team including the starters. This Raptors second unit has consistently beaten its opponents, and is now Dwane Casey’s favorite combination of players to start the fourth quarter.
[Breaking: Raptors assign Bruno Caboclo to D-League]
The narrative that you might be sold on is that this is an offense-heavy lineup with Williams and Vasquez, who play little defense and rely on out-gunning their opponents. A closer look will reveal that of the top 10 lineups used by the Raptors, this one concedes the second-lowest points per possession at 0.92, and is the 8th most efficient offensively at scoring 1.11 points per possession. These two little tidbits fly against the narrative that this group is a guard-dominant offensive juggernaut (i.e., when it comes to bench units), and supports the seldom heard argument that they are actually a strong defensive unit.
The case that Johnson’s defense and Hansbrough’s rebounding “make up” for Vasquez and Williams is too much of a stretch, and it’s very difficult to tease that out of any statistics. A more plausible explanation based on empirical evidence is that Dwane Casey has played these guys together so often, that they out-chemistry the mashup of starters and bench players they usually go up against. This might be a perfect example of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts, and another pro in the hockey lineups debate.
Narrative: The Power Forward and Small Forward are the two weakest spots
Amir Johnson’s fragile ankles and Patrick Patterson’s early run of poor form (since changed) were two of the reasons many felt that this was a position that needed an upgrade. Some are even clamouring for Josh Smith. If not the four, then the three with the aggravating, if not inconsistent, Terrence Ross comes into discussion.
When you look at production by position, this narrative doesn’t exactly hold water. The worst point production the Raptors get from a position is 16.5, and that’s at center. That’s also the position with the worst net-PER on the team. You can pick and choose your stats any which way, and no matter how you slice it, you’re going to be hard-pressed to say that those two are our weak points. After the brilliant Kyle Lowry owning the PG spot, the small forward happens to be the best position in terms of net-PER, and that’s likely due to the defense supplied by James Johnson against opposing threes, and Terrence Ross’s blistering 40% shooting from three.
The relatively poor production from center needs to be qualified by the Raptors simply not using the position enough. Jonas Valanciunas has a usage rate of 18.9%, which is significantly behind DeMar DeRozan’s 28.8%, and Kyle Lowry’s 26.3%. He’s behind Ross’s 19.2% as well, and is ahead of Amir Johnson. Given that backup centers like Chuck Hayes and Lucas Nogueira get very limited run, it stands to reason that this lower production is more due to usage than quality.
The eye test also casts a guilty eye towards the Lithuanian’s defense, the most visible of which is him being unable to corral rebounds that he should be getting. It also doesn’t help his case that the worst opponents PER of 17.6 is also conceded at center.
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So, at this point we have one and only one option: Release Valanciunas and sign Josh Smith.
