Terrence Ross: Disappointing or Emerging?

The Toronto Raptors’ Terrence Ross is an incredibly maddening player.

His athletic gifts coupled with his development in his third year make it nearly impossible not to project what he could be as opposed to what Ross is. To be clear, Ross isn’t a bad player, rather his talent makes you salivate and hope that he’s on the cusp of stardom—yesterday.

The 6’7’’ forward will only turn 24 by this season’s All-Star break, which should make one pause when considering his evolution. Ross is still a young player and he’s developed quite nicely as he plays out his third pro season. He’s increased his scoring and proficiency from the field in every season, and even turned himself into a deadeye long-range shooter.

Have a look at his career per-36 minute numbers:

Save for the three-point shooting, the production bears a striking resemblance to another highflyer that plays for the Raptors. Take a quick look at DeMar DeRozan’s numbers during his first three seasons in the league:

Thus, one simply can’t help but daydream about Ross as a finished product. The player that fans have become accustomed to now is likely an inferior version of the one Ross will become over the next few years. He’s a spectacularly athletic player that also masquerades as a marksman from deep, and that should trigger alarms for Raptors fans.

Ross’ attributes actually mirror those of former Raptors player Vince Carter more than they do DeRozan.

Scary right?

However, Ross still has a lot to work on before getting there. Carter was a better scorer, ball-handler and passer at the same age. Granted, players with the skills of Carter ultimately end up in the Hall of Fame, which means that perhaps I’m setting the bar a little high for Ross. In the same breath, it’s worth mentioning that the things Ross needs to work on could one day place him in the same stratosphere.

For instance, anyone who has watched Ross warm up before games has probably noticed what appear to be exquisite ball-handling skills, but those disappear during games. His growth will largely be affected by his ability to improve on this going forward.

Ross can bring the ball up against token pressure and even get out in transition, but head coach Dwane Casey cannot trust his handle quite yet in the half court. Ross has trouble changing directions against defenders and doesn’t yet have a good feel for where defenders are stationed. As a result, his pick-and-rolls are almost always doomed.

That inability to handle the ball is partly one of the reasons Ross attempts so many contested shots. He comes off screens hoping that the pick and his leaping ability will give him the clean look he wants.

In contrast, when he dribbles the ball, he gets himself into trouble against multiple defenders and usually fires a tough shot.

Surprisingly, this is even an issue when Ross gets all the way to the basket. He tries to score around the defender – usually a shot blocker – instead of taking him head on. The end result is an attempt where he’s fading away from the basket without initiating much contact. Watch here how he avoids the Los Angeles Clippers’ DeAndre Jordan on a drive to the rim:

Details such as these are the reason that many feel that Ross may have plateaued. “I think he’s what he’s going to be: threes and dunks,” Raptors Republic’s own Sam Holako shared. “Problem is he’s being passed as a starting three which is where my frustration is with him.”

It’s hard to disagree with Holako’s take considering some of Ross’ warts.

Can you guess how many times Ross has taken the ball all the way from the three-point line and scored directly at the basket off the dribble this year?

Four times.

Not too coincidentally, Ross is attempting 1.2 free throws per 36 minutes. His career 1.4 free throws per 36 minutes proves this season isn’t a fluke. How bad are those freebie numbers? Celebrated Atlanta Hawks shooter Kyle Korver is attempting 1.9 per 36 minutes for his career. I think we can all agree that Korver is slow and ground bound when compared to Ross, and yet, Korver gets to the line more often than his counterpart.

Korver, who weighs 212 pounds, is excellent at reading screens to get open and does a good job of occasionally cutting to the basket for quick catches and scores. That’s enough to get him a trip or two to the line. Also, it’s worth noting that his 88.3 percent career mark from the charity stripe makes him an automatic selection for technical foul shots. Still, he shouldn’t be attempting more than Ross, who is still learning how to manufacture these types of trips.

Until the 195-pound Ross bulks up to better cope with the rigors of the paint, one thing he could do to improve in terms of getting more free throws is learning to read the floor better. He tends to float around the perimeter and space the court for teammates, which is likely a design of the coaching staff.

However, defenses know they don’t need to worry about him cutting to the basket and simply focus on rotating back to him when the ball comes his way. These are perfect opportunities for Ross to dive into the paint for catches and scores.

The majority of Ross’ 42 attempted shots in the restricted area have come via transition or simple catch and scores (alley-oops included). It stands to reason the Raptors could use more timely cuts from Ross to help balance out the three-point attempts (172) versus the restricted area shots (42). It would help with his confidence, something that often dictates his level of production.

“He’s a rhythm player,” Casey said after an early road December win against the Utah Jazz, per the Toronto Sun’s Mike Ganter. “With that rhythm, it can go out too so his key is being consistent and letting the game come to him for four quarters and not just go in streaks. He has to have that confidence but he’s getting that now with DeMar [DeRozan] being out [torn left adductor longus tendon] he’s become a wing focal point.”

Ross isn’t yet destined for an All-Star appearance, but his talent certainly suggests he could one day get there. Provided he improves his ball-handling and tacks on some weight, Ross should elevate his game to a point where the Raptors are forced to play him more than the 28.4 minutes per game he is being fed so far this season.

Until he can make these changes, Ross should sleep in the film room and take notice at all the cutting opportunities that are available to him. In the meantime, I think that Ross is slowly but surely following in the footsteps of the #WeTheNorth movement and emerging.

It’s only a matter of time.