Four losses in a row does not a happy fan make. You accept the three losses on the roadtrip, though the manner of them is concerning – no defense, YOLO offense. Then there’s the Charlotte game which you can choose to chalk it off to the “first game back from a long roadtrip” trap, except that the team had three days off before it, and were facing an undermanned Charlotte side.
Understandably, the porous defense which is conceding 114 points per game over this losing streak will come into question, even more so when the Raptors boast a defense-first coach in Dwane Casey. Whenever a team is playing defense this poorly, or more correctly, not playing defense at all, you might question the players’ execution of the schemes set up by the coach. That they’re abandoning instruction for baser tastes.
Unfortunately for Casey, that line of reasoning goes out the window when we see lineups featuring Lou Williams, Greivis Vasquez, and Kyle Lowry for extended periods of time while the team is getting crushed on the boards. That, to me, doesn’t look like a coach relying on his defense, but hoping to gun his way back in a game that’s separated by only four possessions.
There’s something to be said about going with what’s worked – i.e., Williams, Vasquez, and Lowry being allowed to play one-on-one, in the hopes of either scoring or getting fouled, both of which they’ve been efficient at. Now that that well seems to have runs out, and it was bound to run out because teams adjust, what’s next for the Raptors? That’s where Casey is right now, at a crossroads of figuring out whether the presently #1 ranked offense is sustainable the way it is, or whether tweaks are needed that bring it in line with last year’s post-trade offense which was much more team-oriented and less guard-dominant. It’s no surprise that the Raptors are presently 29th in terms of assisted FGs (53%) since they’re offense is so individualistic. Last year 58% of their FGs were assisted, and that number is skewed because it includes the pre-trade games.
DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Lou Williams (contract year, don’t forget) are all in the top 15 in the league in pull-up shots attempted. The Raptors are also 27th in the league in front-court touches, which basically means that once the ball crosses the half-court line, the Raptors don’t like to pass it around much. Complaining about offense seems silly because we are the top-ranked offense in the league, it’s just that the cracks are beginning to show and there aren’t any easy baskets to be had. Even worse, it’s influencing our defense.
In the hopes of chasing offensive nirvana, the Raptors are paying the price on defense. On a team with poor individual defenders such as Terrence Ross, Lou Williams, DeMar DeRozan, Greivis Vasquez, it makes it even more important to have some sort of defensive structure in place, especially given the sheer amount of minutes they play. You can also add Kyle Lowry to that list as well, who despite having a great offensive season has been very shaky on defense, which is not surprising given how much the team is relying on him – the man leads the team in minutes played by a huge stretch.
In the absence of that defensive structure, the players are left to their own devices which, in the simplest of terms, is to chase the ball, i.e., rely on making multiple rotations and put even more pressure on their already banged up Amir Johnson, and the inexperienced Jonas Valanciunas to protect the rim, neither of which is working out.
In an NBA defense, you always have to concede something because the offenses are that good. The problem is that the Raptors are conceding everything. They can’t stop drives, they can’t block shots (23rd in NBA) , they can’t stop the three, and they can’t control the pace of the game. They’re scrambling and presently have no defensive identity, so when Casey makes a comment such as “we’ve got to find seven or eight guys who are interested in competing at a high level”, I find it odd because effort isn’t a problem with the Raptors, and Casey has done a remarkable job of getting consistent effort out of the team, save for a couple games (ahem, Phoenix). His profanity-laced encouragement doesn’t necessarily get you to play smart, but it does get you playing harder.
I don’t see DeMar DeRozan’s absence serving as a huge asterisk to any analysis because we’re talking about the idea and structure of the offense, not necessarily poor production from any one individual that can be countered by DeRozan’s return. Defensively, DeRozan won’t make you better or worse.
One of the problems is that players like Jonas Valanciunas and Patrick Patterson aren’t being utilized enough of offense, creating a guard-heavy imbalance on the court, and are being put into defensive situations that they’re not suited for. It’s now obvious that there’s very little interest in the Raptors running pick ‘n rolls, either through Johnson or Valanciunas, which is bewildering given Vasquez’s size and passing ability. Patterson, who was brilliant in getting open in mid-range situations last season when he cut below the three-point line for open jumpers after the interior defense had gone up to trap the guard on a pick ‘n roll, has been reduced to a three-point shooter. To me, having Terrence Ross or Patrick Patterson on the court is the exact same thing on offense, because all they provide is mild court spacing.
Defensively, Patterson has been found out as a rebounder in small ball lineups, and it’s clear that unless the offense is operating at a phenomenal clip, lineups that feature Vasquez, Williams, and no Jonas Valanciunas, will concede everything on the boards. And that’s the pinch: the trade-off which conceded defense for offense in the second unit isn’t paying back.
The Raptors need to dial back Williams and Vasquez and reduce the amount of one-on-one offense those two play, and utilize Vasquez’s strength as a pick ‘n roll ball-handler, which would also bring bigs into the offensive fold. Instead of Valanciunas being offered two possessions in the block to start the game and then reduced to a screen-setter for the rest of the game, make him a consistent thread in the offense regardless of how he’s doing. If Casey can give Lou Williams cart blanche on any type of shot, surely he can afford Valanciunas even half that freedom, even if it’s in the name of development.
As the second half of the season gets underway, the question now shifts from whether the Raptors are any good, to whether their ways are sustainable. The East and the league remains wide open, and the losing streak isn’t a sign that the record is hollow, it’s that teams are adjusting. Casey has never been in this situation before, one where he’s in charge of a team that other teams are gunning for. Prior to this, the Raptors were just another dot on the long NBA schedule, where if you showed up and played a half-decent game, you would likely get the win. Teams are zoning in on individuals, looking at the ample game tape available and discovering that the Raptors are a one-trick pony on offense, and that once you reduce their efficiency to even league average levels, the defense is so bad that they become beatable, rather easily.
It’s Dwane Casey’s move, the worst he can do is do nothing.
Stats are courtesty of Team Rankings, Basketball Reference, NBA.com, and ESPN. Photo via Getty Images.
