With the return of their All-Star looming, the Raptors (25-11) match up tonight against Stan Van Gundy, the Drummond-Monroe rebounding monster, DJ “hey, remember when Casey bolted me to the bench?” Augustin and rest of the white-hot Detroit Pistons (13-24), who’ve won 8 of their last 9 with a tight loss to the unstoppable Atlanta Hawks their only blemish. Tip time is at 7:30 EST on TSN2.
(Before we go any further, read that graf back. The NBA in 2015: weird, but awesome.)
Of course, Detroit’s reversal-of-fortune began after the decision was made to release Josh Smith, eating over $26 million in the process. It’s a narrative that the Raptors are, of course, intimately familiar with after the addition-by-subtraction Rudy Gay saga last year, but you could at least point to the depth of talent on that reformed Raptors squad as a reason the team may improve (indeed, many pundits, including a few RR writers, guessed the Raptors would improve after the trade, though not to the extent we saw). Smith was a different reaction altogether, an inefficient player, yes, but a white-flag thrown up on the then 5-win Pistons’ season, nonetheless.
Obviously, the opposite has happened, and the Pistons are surging up the Eastern Conference standings en route to a playoff spot. But how? Some have cited the subtraction of Smith as removing a square peg from a round hole – the Pistons have plugged Kyle Singler into Smith’s spot in the starting lineup, a more traditional 3 as opposed to the lane-clogging Smith/Monroe/Drummond trio Detroit seemed determined to make work. The removal of Smith opens up more shots for other, more efficient scorers, as well, players like Monroe, who have seen their usage rates and averages jump considerably since his departure.
Obviously, though it’s more than just Monroe and Drummond finding room in the lane that’s spurred the resurgence. The Pistons are more of a Stan Van Gundy team now when one of Monroe or Drummond is off the floor, using stretch big men to great effect and playing a free-wheeling style that’s become increasingly 3-point reliant (43 attempts against Atlanta, including 16 from Anthony Tolliver). Jonas Jerebko, in particular, has benefited from the Ryan Anderson-style stretch four role, having his best year since his rookie season, and with Drummond on the inside, the Pistons can afford to play smaller players at the wings knowing the rim will be protected.
With that all being said, it’s tough to look too deeply into these teams’ previous meeting, a 110-100 win by the Raptors on December 19th that was characterized by a lack of urgency for 3 quarters and a devastating fourth that included this monster jam by James Johnson. Those Pistons were a sad mass of basketball talent, a directionless group just playing out the string; these Pistons are one of the hottest teams in the league and likely coming for revenge after being embarrassed on their home floor (“home” floor – man, Raps fans travel well).
The biggest Raptor-related storyline comes in the possible return of DeMar DeRozan from a torn tendon that’s seen him out for 20 games thus far. As of writing this Sunday evening, no announcement has been made, but DeRozan would obviously be a huge boost for a Raptor team that has floundered somewhat as opposing teams have figured out their iso-heavy offence. DeMar doesn’t necessarily change that all that much, but he is a solid crunch time option, a decent wing defender, and you can count on him to get his points and get to the line, which isn’t necessarily always the case with his various replacements. It’ll also give the ACC crowd a huge motivational boost, something you can’t remove from a one-game analysis.
The key for the Raptors will be similar to when they played the Warriors last month: wing players will have to work their asses off rotating off screens to keep Pistons shooters from getting open looks. I’d prefer to force the Pistons to force things through their bigs, who are both solid players but struggle at the line and can be stymied with solid one-on-one defence. Offensively, the Raps would be smart to run a steady string of pick and rolls with the intention of getting Drummond (first) and Monroe (second) in foul trouble – without them, it’s a lot harder for Detroit to spread the floor with wing-heavy rotations. I’d love to see Jonas get a ton of touches in this game, though it’s hard to hold my breath for that (except in the first few minutes, for some odd reason).
Rebounding will also be key, as always. The Raptors have struggled at times in that department this year, but for my money it’s been a lack of consistent effort that’s led to their woes. Pick a body and box out, and your team will rebound more often than not. Forget (Patrick Patterson comes to mind as doing this a lot, but he’s not the only culprit), and you run the risk of being blown by by Pistons wings on the 3-point line and having Monroe and Drummond do their thing down low. The Raptors should have a size advantage on the wings even if DeRozan doesn’t suit up, and it would behoove them to make the most of it – I’d love to see Lowry bully Augustin, for example, or James Johnson bully whichever poor sap draws that assignment.
The Pick
Yes, Detroit is on a major hot streak, but this game is extremely winnable – with a bit of discipline and some smart coaching, the more talented Raptors can easily come away with a win, DeMar or no DeMar. Vegas has the Raptors favoured by 6, which sounds about right, but for a mutual observer, I have a hard time picking against a streak. Pistons by 3, and I hope I’m wrong.
