We are in the midst of a much more active trading season than the one that lead into the 2014 trade deadline last February. From Rajon Rondo to J.R. Smith to Corey Brewer to Timofey Mozgov to whatever we’re calling the Josh Smith saga, this has been a feverishly active lead-up to mid-February, with no real signs of slowdown on the horizon.
Despite the flurry of activity, though (14 teams have participated in at least one trade since October), don’t expect the Toronto Raptors to jump into the fray between now and Feb. 19. Despite a couple of obvious needs, the timing and the personnel don’t scream ‘time for change’, and the timetable that the organization appears to be working from clocks the Raptors in at ‘ahead of schedule’ given their early success this season.
It’s useful to remember that the Raptors aren’t in any hurry to be tremendously better than they are right now. Despite their recent four-game losing skid, and despite their pitiful defence of late, they are still sitting near the top of the east, within spitting distance of the shockingly effective Atlanta Hawks, and look to be in a good place to make it past the first round for only the second time ever. DeMar DeRozan’s return is imminent, which should help stabilize the team’s attack, and the organization has to learn how well this group stands up to adversity before they start making moves because a good lot of them are still pigeonholed as core pieces for the future.
Plus, as a team gets better, finding an ideal trade becomes harder and harder. For most of the Raptors’ existence, just going out and completing a trade for a competent basketball player was enough to move needle in a positive direction for the club. Nowadays, however, there are legitimate fit issues that have to be contended with, as well as cap ramifications and questions about chemistry.
For instance, let’s say you want to find a replacement for Terrence Ross in the starting five (a move that could almost be called an inevitability if it weren’t so hard to find a logical replacement). First you’d look up and down the existing roster and work out that the only possible replacement is James Johnson, because at least he gives you some size and defensive acumen on the wing, both areas that Ross struggles in. The problem with that arrangement, as has been discussed ad nauseam, is that Johnson can’t shoot a lick from distance (he’s shooting a career-low 19.4% from three this season). If DeRozan could hit threes that wouldn’t be an issue, but DeRozan is that rare star shooting guard that can’t hit from behind the arc, so accommodations must be made elsewhere in the starting five to make up for that deficiency. So, while Johnson ticks a couple of boxes that puts him ahead of Ross, he would not be a longterm solution, either.
That means that the club would have to look elsewhere for a replacement for Ross. Well, it’s exceedingly hard to find a player that is a) big enough to be legitimately called a small forward, b) cover the wing defensively in Dwane Casey’s schemes and c) shoot a respectable clip from beyond the arc.
There are twenty-one small forwards in the NBA that are shooting above 35% from three this season, so lets use that as our list of possible replacements (actually, there are twenty, because Ross is on that list, so we’ve already removed one).
Let’s first remove the players that are simply not going to be traded by their current clubs: LeBron James, Rudy Gay, Gordon Hayward, Chandler Parsons and Paul Pierce. Okay, so now we’re down to fifteen options. We may as well knock Joe Johnson off of the list, as well, since Toronto is not absorbing that contract. So, now we have fourteen options.
Next to go are players aren’t going to live up to the defensive needs of the Raptors at that position: Luke Babbitt, Rasual Butler, Nick Young, Wesley Johnson, Shawne Williams, Robert Covington and Kyle Singler. That brings us down to seven options. Let’s break down each one, in the order of three-point shooting percentage.
Harrison Barnes — This would be an amazing fit for Toronto, but given how well Golden State is going he really should be on the ‘not going to be traded by their current clubs’ list. After all, this is the guy that Steve Kerr likes so much in his starting five he pushed Andre Iguodala to the bench. It would take a knockout offer to pry him from the Warriors and it doesn’t appear the Raptors have one that makes sense.
Mike Dunleavy — He’s been a tremendous asset to Chicago at a rock-bottom salary, but bringing him in would be a band-aid solution for Toronto given his age and injury history. The Raptors need someone who has a few more years left in the tank. They aren’t yet at the title window where they’re just looking for one-year pieces to help put them over the top.
Tobias Harris — Harris looks to have finally found a place in Orlando’s rotation and it remains unclear how interested the Magic would be in moving him without getting something pretty meaningful in return. He’ll be in line for a rich extension this summer, but the Magic bottommed-out so that they could collect young assets like this. There isn’t much of a reason for them to move him along.
Matt Barnes — The guy the Raptors almost once illegally signed falls into the same category as Dunleavy: too old to act as more than a one-year fill-in. The Clippers would probably move him, though, if the Raptors were more eager to make a move than they outwardly appear to be.
P.J. Tucker — A bit undersized for the small forward spot and just signed a three-year extension in Phoenix. The Suns probably aren’t looking to push him out of town so quickly, and his $5.3-million annual salary should give teams pause.
DeMarre Carroll — There is little-to-no reason for Atlanta to mess with what they’ve got going on for anything less than a star coming back their way. Trading an effective role player for another role player at the risk of upsetting their chemistry would fly totally in the face of what put them at the top of the east.
Wilson Chandler — He’s the worst three-point shooter on this list (35.4%) and he’s not the greatest defender at his position but he’s got good size and offensive skill. He’s also probably pretty available, but there is a reason that’s the case. Chandler has never managed to capitalize on his ascension with the Knicks and his injury history would give any GM anxiety about acquiring him.
So, to replace Ross you’re left with is maybe being able to extract Tobias Harris from Orlando, but probably not, maybe making do with an imperfect solution in Wilson Chandler or chasing a one-year fill-in. At that point you may as well just let Ross and Johnson split the duties because the it’s not like the wheels have come off the wagon yet.
If they were desperate to make a move the Raptors could go chasing a new starting power forward, also, but a whole new set of issues present themselves. Because Valanciunas is such a horrid defender you’d need an elite defensive option beside him, someone who excels at setting screens and finishing on the pick-and-roll and, since you’d want improvement, someone who consistently boxes out and keeps his man off of the offensive glass. Again, these are not common assets, and teams that have them aren’t exactly desperate to trade them away.
This Raptors team is sort of a weird assemblage that, for the most part, allows the whole to function because the various parts fill in a lot of random holes that their teammates create for them. That’s how team building works, and after the Rudy Gay trade the Raptors would up with a pretty effective, complimentary grouping. However, that makes pulling pieces out to replace them with superior options difficult, because it would be upsetting a balance that is deceptively shaky in terms of roster makeup. At some point Ujiri will have to pull on a thread because the team isn’t good enough yet to consider themselves elite, but the moves that he does make must be carefully thought out. Just look at what happened last year when the Pacers jettisoned bench wing Danny Granger for bench with Evan Turner. When you get to a certain level of success you don’t make moves just to make them because each piece means something in a successful whole. It is very difficult to successfully replace one. That’s why you shouldn’t put any money on the Raptors making a move this winter. They’ve got more to find out about themselves before they start making trades, and with a design that sees them targeting 2016 as the year to make moves, 2015 may have to stay quiet to make that work.