After a rough stretch that saw the Raptors have their worst couple of weeks in over a calendar year, this team is looking and sounding like they’ve realized that they can’t play in a manner that underestimates any opponent. Coming dangerously close to dropping their Friday night matchup against the mostly professional basketball team from Philadelphia helped remind them of that. Detroit is far from a circled win on the calendar now. Stan Van Gundy is an elite coach, Andre Drummond is a freaking freight train, Greg Monroe is playing for a max(ish, very ish) contract and they’ve plugged functional shooting into the many holes on their roster.
Unfortunately, as the Lord giveth by taking away for the Pistons, he also taketh away by takething away. What was first reported as an ankle injury looks like an almost certainly torn or ruptured Achilles for Brandon Jennings. That’s devastating for Jennings, the Pistons and any fan of fun basketball things. Jennings has been BALLING for Detroit in the fifteen wonderful games since the Pistons got immeasurably better by paying Josh Smith to never play for them again. Immeasurable isn’t technically the best article of hyperbole to make my point, because their improvement is completely measurable. With Josh Smith the Pistons were 5-23, without him, and without adding any replacement short of his absence, they’re now 12-4. With Josh Smith off the court the Pistons have been 12.3 points per 100 possessions better on offense and have given up 5.1 less points per 100 possessions on defence. That’s a -17.4 rating, which given the Pistons average of pace of play, is good for about 16.5 points a game. Those are significant measurables. And so are Brandon Jennings 20 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 steals on 44-40-83 shooting splits. Those will be missed.
This is not the same Pistons team that the Raptors handled by double digits back in December. Having said that, this isn’t going to be the same Pistons team that has gone 12-4 either, as Brandon Jennings was leading the team in points, assists, steals and onions. DJ Augustin inspires about as much confidence as his replacement as a lead threat as Josh Smith did.
The bench unit was troublingly absent in the Raptors January 12th loss to Detroit, but a key part of Toronto’s success in the first matchup. They’ll play an important role again in this matchup. Stan Van Gundy has been plucky in spreading out his lineups as of late around either Monroe or Drummond and barraging shots from outside. Moving players around to pick up Jennings minutes will make that a little trickier for him, opening up the chance for the Raptors 2nd unit to take advantage of an opportunity to create separation on the scoreboard. Jodie Meeks and Kaldwell-Pope are not ideal full-time ball handlers, and DJ Augustin has been much less reliable from 3 than Jennings. Detroit is amongst the team’s most disciplined defensively in terms of giving up free throws, taking away a big weapon for DeMar and Lowry, and making the bench scoring all the more relevant.
Monroe is the kind of low post scorer that Amir Johnson has done well enough against, but against whom Patrick Patterson and Tyler Hansbrough have had trouble with. Monroe-lead bench units could result in some run for the Chuck-wagon, calling upon Hayes ever-reliable post defence. Drummond is an interesting matchup for Valanciunas. Big Val has played well over the last two weeks, and win or lose, matchups against big, aggressively rebounding centers always seems to bring out the emotionally engaged Valanciunas. I’m a big personal fan of the battling, angry and active Valanciunas who Tiger Woods fist-pumps whenever he gets foul calls instead of looking timidly over the bench for the hook after a mistake.
Some Key Matchups:
Kyle Lowry vs. DJ Augustin (yikes!)
Jonas Valanciunas vs. Andre Drummond (YES!)
Tyler Hansbrough Vs. Spencer Dinwiddie (kidding)
Terrence Ross vs. Jodie Meeks (not kidding)
DeMar DeRozan vs. 5.5 Free Throw Attempts (Need the over)
Line: Toronto -6.0 Total: 204.5
Prediction:
I like Toronto by 6, but not by much more. If they’re focused, which has become a stronger if lately, they should be able to separate from a Detroit team that’s reeling from the loss of Jennings on a back-to-back. I would take the under too. Toronto is focusing on defence, and they would be ill served to make this a high paced game against the offensive rebounding and three point shooting of Detroit. Detroit’s offence is going to be a work in progress, and their game against Milwaukee last night did little to inspire confidence.
