Toronto and Washington meet in a battle for No. 2 in the Eastern Conference.
- Record: 33-20 (4-6)
- Eastern (4)
- Southeast (2)
Ranks
- 105.5 ORTG (16)
- 102.9 DRTG (6)
- 93.5 Pace (17)
- 77.9 DRB% (3)
- 0.544 TS% (10)
Latest Results
Leaders
- John Wall 17.3 ppg
- Marcin Gortat 8.1 rpg
- John Wall 10.2 apg
- Marcin Gortat 1.3 bpg
- John Wall 1.9 spg
- Record: 35-17 (8-2)
- Eastern (2)
- Atlantic (1)
Ranks
- 112.3 ORTG (2)
- 107.1 DRTG (20)
- 93.1 Pace (20)
- 73.3 DRB% (24)
- 0.555 TS% (5)
Latest Results
Leaders
- Kyle Lowry 18.8 ppg
- Jonas Valanciunas 8.6 rpg
- Kyle Lowry 7.2 apg
- Jonas Valanciunas 1.2 bpg
- Kyle Lowry 1.6 spg
Randy Wittman is holding them back. By them, I mean “the Wizards,” because Wittman is not a guy who holds his gas back — just ask his college teammates.
A look at the Eastern conference standings would lead you to believe that Washington is fine. They are 3rd in the conference, just behind Toronto, but they have gone 4-6 in the last 10. Granted, some of those losses came against good teams like the Hawks, Blazers and the Raptors.
In the Wizards, the Raptors face a team that is exactly what Toronto fears: a bad coach coasting with a talented roster. I’m not saying Dwane Casey is or isn’t holding Toronto back,
Washington’s metrics do not inspire confidence, considering their position in the standings. It’s even worse when you factor in that the Wiz have played the easiest schedule in the league, per Basketball-Reference. They are in the top-ten for DRtg, but the ‘Zards have not figured out how to contain the Raptors. Toronto dropped 120 in the latest game and finishing with an ORtg of 115. That number was slightly worse in the November tilt, but still above Washington’s season average. Scoring should not be a problem for Toronto. But as we know, defence is what ails the Raptors. In playing the Wizards, Toronto doesn’t really pay a price for their failings though.
The Wizards sit 16th in ORtg. By definition, that is an average figure. But they don’t have average offensive players, which makes Washington a difficult puzzle to figure out.
The problems start with Wittman, the man who replaced Dwane Casey at Minnesota. Wittman has described himself as an old-school basketball lifer and that mentality is represented in the team’s offence.
I’ll let Wittman explain the offensive philosophy.
““We’re going to take open shots. If a team wants to give us mid-range open shots, we’re going to take them. I’m going to tell a guy that has a wide-open 15-foot jumper to take three steps back and shoot a three? I’m not going to do that,” Wittman said in an October Washington Post interview.
But it’s spiralled into more than just taking open shots. In 2013-14, Washington shot the most mid-range shots in the NBA. This year, they are second in that category, behind the Charlotte Hornets (a team with the second worst ORtg in the league.) And that’s had a negative impact on the team’s best player, John Wall. The Kentucky product shot a ton of mid-range jumpers, some (myself included) would argue too many given his 36% shooting percentage from that area.
Wall has since improved his jumper but still wants to take the open mid-range shots given to him. I understand that sometimes, a point guard has to take a shot that the defence gives him. But you wonder if there’s room for a change.
More importantly, the team loses when Wall can’t connect on jumpshots. In losses, Wall shoots about 37% from 10-20 feet.
If this feels like a takedown of Wall, it isn’t. It’s a criticism of Wittman, who encourages mid-range jumpshots and limits what players like J-Wall are best at. A coach shouldn’t limit their athletes, he should tailor his schemes to fit the abilities (and in Wall’s case, elite abilities) to maximize talent.
That’s what to watch for, outside of your regular Raptors things. Wall is really damn good, and this Wizards team is winning games. But their offence is middling and keeping the roster from reaching their potential. @wzzntzz deserves better.
For an introspective look at the opponent, here’s Conor Dirks from ESPN Truehoop’s Truth About It.
1. What changes would you like to see to the offence?
Any discussion of Washington’s offense starts with the midrange jump shot. Hopefully, one day, it will end with the 3-pointer. Currently, the Wizards are the third-best 3-point shooting team, but only take 16.1 attempts per game, good for fourth-fewest in the NBA. They also happen to be the only team in the league that gets less than half of its offense from the most efficient looks a team can get: shots at the rim and 3-pointers.The offense is built around creating open spaces on the floor, pockets where Wizards shooters can take uncontested jump shots. The Wizards move the ball a lot, but they don’t necessarily move it with the right kind of purpose. Comparing the Wizards to the Hawks, who also move the ball a lot, you see that the Hawks take it a step farther than the Wizards are willing to do. When Washington finally beats the defense and get an open shot, they take it. When the Hawks get an open shot, they force the defense into compounding their mistake by over-committing and the Hawks player will often either drive to the basket, find a 3-point shooter who is now even more open, or draw a foul.
2. Are you satisfied with John Wall’s shot selection?
Satisfied? One of the great luxuries of life is language, and one of language’s great benefits is the ability to complain. In fandom, complaining is like failed triage on the whole of the sport. We come away from a game or a season covered in blood, having tried our best but with no meaningful chance at saving even a single patient, and through the power of the complaint we are washed clean, suddenly unencumbered by the tacit complicity of our patronage.
So, no, I’m not satisfied. Wall has improved his midrange shooting accuracy, but he still takes far too many of those shots. Unless it’s from the right elbow, his sweet spot, he should be extending the possession and either collapsing the defense for an eventual kick-out or getting to the rack himself. Neither he nor Beal have been particularly successful drawing fouls, and a large part of that is that shooters aren’t often fouled on jump shots.
3. Who is the biggest threat off the bench?
Washington’s biggest threat off the bench, when fully healthy, is probably Kris Humphries. Terrifying, I know. Although Humphries may miss this game, he’s been fantastic all season. If he’s out, better call Rasual. Butler has woken back up after a month-long nap, and is firing again, even if he’s not hitting at his former pace yet. Which makes him a threat…to be a threat…to either Toronto or Washington, depending.
BREAKDOWN
Starters:
The typical starting lineup for the Wizards has a net rating of 10.4, a healthy mark. Bradley Beal has missed the past two games with a sore toe and Garrett Temple will step in. Them ‘Zards have actually played better defensively when Temple is in, but given the Raptors scoring success in the previous two games, it’s hard to see anything changing.
Meanwhile, the Raptors should be rested, having a couple days in between this Wizards match-up and the win over the Spurs. Toronto has the advantage in starting line-ups, but the margin is even bigger if Casey starts James Johnson again. His size could wreak havoc against the 6-6 Temple (or, if he plays, the 6-5 Beal.) (also, screw Paul Pierce)
Advantage: Raptors
Bench:
Randy Wittman will probably use a short bench, if recent games are any indication. He’s consistently used nine players against the stronger competition in their past ten games, but the personnel he’s deploying will not make any Raptors fan worry. Otto Porter, Rasual Butler and Kevin Seraphin should get a lot of court time, but it’s hard to tell as the playing time drastically fluctuates game-to-game.
That Porter-Butler pairing does not show up in really any strong defensive line-ups. Their individual defensive ratings are both poor, but Seraphin is a net-negative.
By now, you know the Raptors have a good bench. Patterson could have a big game as he did against them earlier this month. His pick and roll can be difficult for the slow-footed Nene or Marcin Gortat. Maybe Terrence Ross shows up for this game too and provides a spark.
The key weakness is back-up point guard. Washington employs Andre Miller but use him lightly when the team is healthy. Defensively, Miller has been brutal, and whoever holds down the point guard spot should attack him relentlessly.
Advantage: Raptors
Coaching:
There is merit to all of the Dwane Casey discussion but for this game, he is clearly the better coach. Randy Wittman ignores new methods of analysis (which aren’t even that new, Dean Smith was using them for years) and loves mid-range shots.
Curiously, Wittman changes his lineups a ton. Injuries impact this, but when I was trying to get a grasp for their most effective 5-man group, it was clear that Wittman tinkers quite a lot.
Hey, the advantage can be eliminated with a few poor rotation decisions. For now, Raptors own this category.
Advantage: Raptors
Prediction: Those Beal and Humphries injuries drain an already-thin roster, and the Raptors defence is trending upwards lately. We know Toronto can score on the Wizards, Toronto just has to take care of business around the rim. Raptors win 106-99.
