In the NBA, as in most professional sports, there are cycles, especially among the Championship teams. The best teams tend to have five to ten year windows where they are able to contend, and that usually coincides with the lifecycle of their best player. And speaking of which, in the last 55 years, only five Championship teams did NOT feature a former, current or future MVP on the roster who was still playing at a high level. And there were five teams that featured more than one.
There’s a reason there and it’s a belief that you need a franchise player to truly contend for a Championship, which is generally true.
Except once in a while when it’s not. Let me explain. As I said, in the last 55 years, a former, current or future MVP have been featured on the Championship team 49 times. It’s those six other times that we’re going to look at.
From 1957 to 1969 (that’s 13 years), the Boston Celtics won 11 titles. Their decline coincided with the rise of the Knicks, the peak of Wilt Chamberlain’s 76ers and when the Bucks had Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Oscar Robertson. But after those great teams declined, it was several years before Magic Johnson and Larry Bird helped the Lakers and Celtics dominate the 80s.
The decline and retirement of players like Oscar Robertson, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Willis Reed, Bob Cousy, Jerry West and John Havlicek was magnified by the chaos the ABA and its eventual merger with the NBA during the late 70s caused. It was during this time when the Seattle Supersonics won their only title, despite no MVP caliber player on the roster and Golden State won with Rick Barry (who did make 5 All-NBA First Teams).
Magic’s Lakers, Bird’s Celtics and Dr J’s Sixers won 9 titles during the 80s, but while Michael Jordan was still learning how to win with the Bulls, the Detroit Pistons won a couple of titles, without an MVP on the roster. Yes, Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars and Dennis Rodman were great players, but none were in the same league as Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan or Hakeem Olajuwon.
Over the next 13 years, the NBA saw Jordan and the Bulls, Hakeem and the Rockets, Tim Duncan and the Spurs, and Shaq and Kobe’s Lakers all win multiple titles each. But in 2004, the NBA had another “gap year”. While the Spurs and Lakers were still winning, injuries derailed the Spurs’ chances in the playoffs, and infighting killed any chemistry the Lakers might have had, which then lead to Shaq being traded to the Miami Heat.
Even the standings looked off that year, with Minnesota, Indiana and Sacramento taking advantage of a league in flux and setting franchise records for wins. Jordan, Hakeem, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, John Stockton, David Robinson, Gary Payton and even Shaquille O’Neal were either retired or well into their twilight years (Shaq was still an All-Star, but not the dominant player he had been).
It was this year that the Detroit Pistons, this time lead by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace, both great players but neither MVP quality, won their Championship.
Fast forward ten more years, during which former or current MVPs led their teams to the next ten titles, and we come to another season in flux.
This season.
One look at the standings will tell you there’s something odd about this season. Of the teams with the four best records in the league, not one finished in the top seven last season or made it past the first round of the playoffs (Atlanta didn’t even make the playoffs) and only Golden State won at least 50 games.
Last year’s Champion, the Spurs, have struggled with injuries, and their opponent in the Finals disbanded, with LeBron heading to Cleveland to try and build something there. The second best player in the league, Kevin Durant, has missed more than half his games due to injury and his team is still on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.
Not one player on Golden State, Atlanta, Memphis or Toronto (currently the top four teams) have a player on the roster that has ever made an All-NBA First team, let alone been in the running for the MVP Award.
I think it’s safe to say we’re looking at another “gap year”, where a dark horse team could end up hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
So with the Raptors sitting with the fourth best record, could this be their year?
First, let’s look at the previous “gap year” teams that have won titles.
Let’s take 1975’s Golden State team out because they they won it when the ABA was at its peak and the NBA was seriously depleted of talent, and they only won 48 games.
1979’s Supersonics won just 52 games, but it was in one of the most balanced seasons in league history, with no team winning more than 54 games and only two teams winning fewer than 30 games (29 and 26). The Sonics had the league’s second-best record and won with the league’s best defense, anchored by perennial All-Defense team member, Dennis Johnson.
Fast forward to Isiah Thomas’ Pistons, and they had the league’s third and second best ranked defense when they won their titles (in fact, their defense was so dominant that it ended up changing the way the NBA played defense since). The 2004 version of the Pistons had the second ranked defense, as well, anchored by four-time Defensive Player of the Year award-winner, Ben Wallace.
Of the top four teams currently, only the Raptors do not have a top ten ranked defense, and their defense is barely ranked in the top 20.
Seattle and the two Detroit teams not only were ranked in the top 5, defensively, they also featured some of the best defense players the league has ever seen in Dennis Johnson, Joe Dumars, Dennis Rodman and Ben Wallace, players that wreaked havoc on the defensive end.
Amir Johnson and Kyle Lowry are two of the Raptors’ best defensive players, but neither are game-changers, defensively.
And lastly, the ’79 Supersonics, the ’89 and ’90 Pistons and the ’04 Pistons also had another thing in common: A Hall of Fame coach. Lenny Wilkens (when he still cared – NOT when he coached the Raptors), Chuck Daly and Larry Brown were all near or at the top of their profession. While Dwane Casey is certainly a respectable coach, it’s hard to foresee him ever becoming one of the best in the league.
So while it’s nice to enjoy the Raptors’ current success, one must keep things in perspective and not expect too much come the playoffs. While the Raptors do have the fourth best record, it’s still hard to imagine them beating a healthy Atlanta, Cleveland, or even Chicago team in a seven game series to get to the Finals. And if they do make it to the Finals, they simply aren’t on the same level as Golden State, Memphis or a healthy San Antonio.
