He’s only been a starter for a little over two weeks, but James Johnson has already had a significant impact on the Toronto Raptors. Johnson entered the starting lineup on February 8 in a win against the defending champion San Antonio Spurs. Since then, his play style of play has him entrenched as the team’s starting small forward.
The Raptors have a record of 3-3 with Johnson as a starter, with victories not only over the Spurs, but also the Washington Wizards and the Eastern Conference leading Atlanta Hawks. Couple this with a near no-show against the Houston Rockets, a stomach-punch loss to a New Orleans Pelicans team that was missing Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, and Jrue Holiday (let us never speak of that game again), and an inability to close against a tough Dallas Mavericks team during a fourth game in five nights.
A 3-3 record with Johnson as a starter indicates that the results of this current rendition of the Raptors are, at best, mixed. Toronto has beaten some of the league’s best teams over this six game stretch, while also losing to a Pelicans team that was a mere shadow of their true selves (crap…I mentioned it again).
But while the results ultimately are what matter, the intrigue lies in how the Raptors strengths and weaknesses have flipped over this short stretch of six games. Toronto has spent the majority of the season as a top five offense, as the Raptors currently have the fourth ranked offense at 108.1 points per 100 possessions.
Since February 8, when Johnson became a starter by default, the Raptors have the second worst offense in the NBA at just 95.1 points per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks, losers of their last seven games and owners of a previous 16 game losing streak, are the only team with below them.
Granted, the sample size couldn’t be much smaller. We are talking about a two week stretch which accounts for less than 7 percent of Toronto’s season. It’s not nearly enough to a draw any firm conclusions from, but it can give us concept of what the Raptors could look like with James Johnson as a starter.
Almost as significant as the team’s recent transformation on offense, has been the drastic change in terms of their defensive performance. Over the same stretch of time Toronto has the second best defense by allowing just 93.7 points per 100 possessions. For reference, the Raptors had previously given up 104.3 points per 100 possessions on the season, for an improvement of 10.6 points per 100 possessions.
Masai Ujiri went into last summer recognizing the Raptor need for a big wing who can defend the opposition’s best player. This need was highlighted all the more by Joe Johnson’s dismantling of the Raptors in the first round last year. Enter, James Johnson. Johnson has a rare mix of size and mobility that allows him to guard everyone from Chris Paul or Tony Parker, to Kawhi Leonard, Dirk Nowitzki, and Blake Griffin. Dwane Casey has entrusted Johnson with opportunities to guard almost everyone on the court. The versatility is a spectacle to behold.
Since entering the starting lineup, Johnson has averaged 15 points per game, has shot 70.5 percent from the field, has hit 60 percent of his shots from beyond the three point line (averaging one such attempt per game…this success is an aberration), has hauled in 4.2 rebounds per game, 1.2 steals, and has blocked 1.6 shots per game as well. The numbers jump off the page and show the type of overall impact he has had on the game.
It could easily be viewed as troubling that the Raptors typically dominant offense has struggled since the lineup change on February 8, but Toronto has consistently shown themselves to be one of the top scoring teams in the league. What they have failed to regularly do is show that they can stop their opponent when it’s needed the most. The offense is likely to rebound based on the team’s success to date, but as Casey has consistently preached the team focus must be on developing a defensive identity.
While Johnson was brought to Toronto for his defense, his offense has been remarkable. Although he is shooting just 25 percent from three on the season, he has still managed to help create good spacing for Toronto.
Traditionally we only think of floor spacing being based on three point shooting, but Johnson does it by other means. His ability to drive the lane forces opposing defenses to collapse, and James has shown to be particularly adept at either finishing at the rim (his Euro-step is a work of art) or finding the open shooter.
And although he will never be confused for a three point marksman, his shot chart indicates that it isn’t nearly as bad as his 25 percent success rate indicates. He shoots at a slightly better rate of 30 percent when only looking at his attempts from the corners. Take a look at his long range shooting chart for the season:
His shot isn’t broken. It’s a workable shot that just needs to be focused to target specific shooting zones. For example, Johnson has taken just one non-corner three since becoming a starter, which has been a big asset for Toronto. Johnson can help open things up even further if he can manage to raise his percentage from the corners to a near league-average level.
Toronto has the means to correct their recent offensive struggles, but few options outside of Johnson to maintain their current defensive successes. Johnson provides the Raptors with this added dimension and has earned the right to start moving forward.
All-in-all, Toronto has thrived this year when their top nine players have been available. The Raptors have a clearly defined top nine, and it’s this balance that has carried them to their current franchise-record pace.
Raptors record with everybody in 9-man rotation healthy this season (Lowry/DeRozan/JJ/Amir/JV/Vasquez/Lou/Pat/Ross): 21-5. Without: 16-14
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) February 24, 2015
(The above tweet was before last night’s loss, meaning the Raptors are now 21-6 with their full compliment of players available.)
Looking at that tweet, it might not even matter whether Johnson sticks as a starter or not. The Raptors don’t rely on a single player to carry them, but rather an entire team.
James Johnson is a big part of what’s happening in Toronto, and to make it even better he is doing is for just $2.5 million a year, while still being under contract at the same figure for next season. Great production from one of the cheapest players on the Raptors.
Besides, who else on the roster will cock that joint back and bang on ‘em?
*Stats do not include last night’s loss in Dallas, as stats were not yet available while writing.
