With Mark Jackson at the helm of the Golden State Warriors, he guided them to back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in more than 20 years, and even coached them to the second round in 2013. He helped turn them into one of the best defensive teams in the league. And then he was suddenly fired.
Enter Steve Kerr, who had to choose between the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors. Amazingly, he chose the franchise that hadn’t given away all it’s first round picks for the next 50 years, won just 37 games and traded for Andrea Bargnani the season before.
Kerr brought with him five championship rings from two different teams and a Spurs-like offensive strategy. And with “the best shooting backcourt in NBA history”, the Warriors now sit with the best record in the league and are the odds on favourite to make it to the Finals in the league’s toughest conference.
While the Warriors still have one of the best defenses in the league, they now also have one of the top rated offenses. Steph Curry has put his ankle problems that plagued him early in his career far behind him and is neck and neck with James Harden in the race for MVP. Curry is one of the best ball handlers, shooters and passers in the league, and is also arguably one of the most entertaining players, as well.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH
Is There Something Wrong With The Raptors?
After starting the season 22-6, the Raptors have gone 15-14 in the last 29 games. In those first 28 games, the Raptors scored 100 points or more 23 times. In the last 29, they’ve scored 100 points or more just 15 times. Notice a pattern?
The Raptors are still one of the top rated teams offensively, but they are showing some cracks. In wins, the team is scoring 108.6 points compared to just 97.5 points in losses, so obviously the Raptors need to score to win, especially since their defense is still below average.
Those scoring struggles can be directly tied to Lowry’s decline in productivity in the last two months. Since December, when Lowry was not just playing at All Star level but was in discussions as a fringe MVP candidate, there’s been a sharp decline in production from Lowry across the board. In December, Lowry peaked at 22.3 ppg, 8.9 apg and 4.2 rpg. In February, Lowry saw his averages dip to 12.8 ppg, 5.9 apg and 3.2 rpg and his offensive rating bottom out at 90 (after being weel over 100 for most of the rest for the season). He’s also shooting 36% from the field and less than 30% from three in January and February.
Without Lowry playing like he did at the beginning of the season, the Raptors are a mediocre team.
Is The Warriors Backcourt Really The Best Shooters Ever?
When Mark Jackson made the claim that Curry and Thompson were the best shooting backcourt ever, many fans and experts alike scoffed. It sounded a like a coach trying to hype his own players, but he may have been right. Right now, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are scoring a combined 46.1 ppg with a gaudy true shooting percentage of .624 and .598, respectively and could both end up shooting more than 40% from three for the season.
Since the advent of the three point line, the only backcourt to come close to that, shooting-wise, were John Stockton and Jeff Hornacek, of the Utah Jazz. But they weren’t even close in scoring.
At this point, I’d say backcourts like Jerry West and Gail Goodrich, Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars, and Walt Frazier and Earl Munroe have to be considered better overall. None of them have Curry and Thompson beat shooting-wise.
Will Home Cooking Help The Raptors?
After losing three in a row on their recent Western Conference road trip, the Raptors return to the Air Canada Centre. They’ve only lost more than two in a row one other time this season, back in at the beginning of January with their last Western Conference road trip. They lost three in a row on the road and then lost their return game at home against the Charlotte Hornets.
The Raptors have been unpredictable lately, both at home and on the road. They recently lost against Milwaukee and Brooklyn at home, but beat both the Spurs and Hawks, in Atlanta. The only thing predictable is that if the Raptors are able to score, they tend to win. But they are going against a better scoring team AND one of the best defensive teams in the league.
BREAKDOWN
Starters
The Raptors have one of the best backcourts in the league, but the Warriors backcourt is better. While Valanciunas is a better offensive player than Andrew Bogut, he’s not the defensive anchor or passer that Bogut is. Draymond Green may be undersized for the power forward position, but he’s an excellent role player who can step out and hit the jumper, and is also a triple double threat.
Edge: Warriors
Bench
The Raptors bench may not be scoring like they did in the first half of the season, they are still up there. The Warriors aren’t much farther behind, with former All Stars Andre Iguodala and David Lee both coming of their bench. However, Iguodala is the only bench player to play more than 20 mpg, partly because the Warriors’ starters are so good, but also because the bench isn’t incredibly deep. They do have some talent, though, and it’s comparable to the Raptors.
Edge: Even
Coaching
At this point in the season, either Steve Kerr or Atlanta’s Mike Budenholzer are the favourites to win the Coach of the Year Award. While there were questions about Kerr at first because he’d never actually coached in any capacity before, his performance on the bench so far has erased any doubts.
Edge: Warriors
PREDICTION
The Raptors have lost three in a row compared to just one for the Warriors. One of them will win tonight and break their losing streak.
Interestingly, of the Warriors eleven losses, six of those came back-to-back. That could mean that they are vulnerable, but the Raptors have scored at least 100 points just twice in their last nine, and that’s not going to cut it against a team like the Warriors. Then again, while the Warriors are an excellent defensive team, they play an uptempo game and let their opponent score and average of exactly 100 points.
What does this all mean? Who knows. For those of you following, I’m 0-4 for predictions in my last four, despite going with the favourite every single time. So why change my strategy now…
Score: Warriors 118 – Raptors 102
