Welcome to Raptors basketball, where the plays are made up and the practices are like the plot line in a porno film. They just don’t matter.
What else is one to conclude after having watched the Raptors repeat the same mistakes over and over again, to the point where the post-game press conferences are hard to differentiate from each other, not least of it because they decided to use the same damn #WeTheNorth background for home and road games. Whether it be the lack of inside-out play, the poor shot selection, the mysterious rotations, or the head-scratching offense, everything’s sort of blended into one giant cauldron of monkey excrement that people are starting to care less and less about.
The losses can now be easily anticipated and even the stretches within a game have a sense of predictability to them. Come to think of it, the Raptors over the last three weeks have looked what the Raptors usually have looked like. The narrative at the deadline was that Masai Ujiri lack of action was due to, 1) him seeing how far this unit can go thus providing him with more information prior to the summer, 2) not disrupting the chemistry the team had, and 3) not making short-sighted moves at the expense of long-term stability.
I think we all know what the ceiling for this team is even in a weak East – it’s a second-round playoff berth. No more, and especially so under a rigid coach like Dwane Casey who specializes is motivation rather than tactics. The chemistry angle I just don’t get because that “chemistry” the team displayed last season is nowhere to be found so there’s nothing to disrupt. The only stat you need to look at is assists. The Raptors are an iso-heavy team that has few team concepts embedded in its offense, and none in its defense. Lou Williams may have rap songs written about him and may have provided some highlights this season, but he emits a very predatorial and self-absorbed attitude coming off the bench and it seems to have permeated into the starting lineup as well. Far be it for the team’s ills to be blamed on Lou Williams, it’s more that the coach hasn’t been able to integrate a very good offensive player into a what-used-to-be a good offensive system from a year ago.
Finally, the short-sighted moves angles is another one that people tend to blow out of proportion. The team has been struggling tremendously on defense for the better part of three months now, and nothing Casey has done is able to move the needle on that end. They needed to acquire another big man at the deadline, or at the very least another guard who has some idea of how to defend. Even if the price was a first-round pick, I don’t think it would’ve been too high because as it stands, the Raptors are an absolute joke on defense, and worst of all, nobody seems to mind. I concede that bringing in one player isn’t going to change all that, but a jolt of some sort might have been needed. Just look at Cleveland’s moves as an example of a positive effect it can have.
As the Raptors face Miami at home tonight, this marks the only realistically winnable game they have this week. After getting thumped in San Antonio and facing Portland on Sunday, the 29-35 Heat who have Chris Bosh out for the rest of the season give the Raptors their best chance of the week. After the Heat it’s the surging Pacers, Wiggins and the Timberwolves, and the Bulls. What I’m getting is that we’re not facing Philly anymore so there’s no respite. The 50-win mark which looked like an inevitability when the team stood at 24-7 is now a huge doubt. The record since that Denver win is 14-19. During these 33 games, the Raptors have the league’s 25th ranked defense, and are also 25th in assists. This is a team that’s not playing any defense and does not share the ball – it’s actually alarming that they’ve won 14 games playing this sort of basketball.
This idea that there’s “nothing left to play for” since we’ve secured home-court by way of winning the division is unfounded. This roster’s stature isn’t big enough to warrant that kind of an approach to the remainder of the season. We’re not the 2008 Celtics or the 2004 Pistons where we have the veteran leadership or the intelligence to hit an on/off switch. There is no on/off switch, and if this team thinks it has one, it’s a grave problem that the coach should be held accountable for.
The play of Jonas Valanciunas is a topic that seems to come up after every game because fans appear to believe that his misuse is hurting the team. I agree, it is, but it’s not like he’s the answer to our woes. Even if Casey leaves Valanciunas in there for the full fourth quarter, the chances of Valanciunas actually having a sustained impact are low. His offensive and defensive development has slowed down this year, and he’s behind where he should be at this point in his career. He does some impressive things, plays hard, but much like Terrence Ross, hasn’t really blossomed into his potential under Dwane Casey’s dubious and unproven player development system.
Casey’s “player development” approach seems to be to throw minutes at someone and let them figure the rest out under the vague advice of “play hard”. You could argue that Valanciunas has learned more in the month and a half he was with the Lithuanian team than he has with the Raptors this season, and that’s because we’ve seen very little evidence of actual one-on-one coaching making him a better player. How he hasn’t learned to read a double-team coming a mile away from shorter players, and make an outlet pass is puzzling. It’s almost like it’s never even been practiced, since I can assure you, that is not a very difficult skill to teach if you hone in on it for a couple weeks.
Offensively, I think we can all agree that the Raptors offense is guard-dominant, doesn’t appear to value ball-movement, and is very static. Part of it are the natures of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, who both feel the need to lead the team as they’ve been quoted many times. The problem is that they’re confusing “lead” with “carry”, and are trying to carry the team by taking shots that are very detrimental to the group, without reprimand from the coach. Casey, perhaps for fear of not angering his best players, has chosen to turn a blind eye to this play and instead focuses on low-hanging fruit like James Johnson’s occasional three and Jonas Valanciunas’ box-outs.
What worked for Kyle Lowry in November/December isn’t working now. His step-back jumper doesn’t have the legs in it. It’s not a great shot to begin with, and with teams now putting longer defenders on him, it makes it that much harder. The scouting report for that shot is out and teams have adjusted. The supporting cast isn’t doing much supporting, and with DeMar DeRozan obliging defenses by taking the first available bad shot, it means Lowry doesn’t quite have a chance to reinitiate his offense on the same possession again. With DeRozan out, he had ample chances to probe the defense twice, or even three times, but with the inefficient DeRozan out there, Lowry’s chances to score are diminished.
The Raptors problems are all solvable through organization and structure. Some measure of offensive balance which dedicates itself to not just giving Valanciunas the odd post-up, but persists with him by way of organizing a whole set for him (e.g., a baseline double-screen which frees him up for a catch-and-layup) would help diversify a very predictable offense. Having DeMar DeRozan be banned from taking baseline fadeaways would be a good start as well, especially because it sets such a bad example for the rest of the group.
Defensively, it is madness to stick with what we’re currently doing because it’s been proven to not work with a whole lot of lineup permutations. The Raptors can’t afford to be getting carved up within the first 10 seconds of the shot-clock, and have to limit the amount of weak-side wing help they provide. Even if it means Valanciunas picks up three fouls playing help defense, or if Bebe needs to be called in to man the paint, it’s still better than the strategy of having Patrick Patterson trying to close-out guards on opposite ends of the court on the same possession.
Dwane Casey spoke about experimenting with new techniques, such as giving Patrick Patterson a start, which is a good approach to tuning things ahead of the post-season. He even mentioned the creation of new plays, which is something that is long overdue. After all, posting up Amir Johnson on the lower left elbow and having DeRozan misdirect only to cut baseline is far too predictable. At least there’s some sparks going off in Dwane Casey’s mind and he’s doing something about the funk instead of repeating the “wanting 7 or 8 guys who want to play” line, because that was getting tedious.
It’s easy to fling mud at Casey right now, he’s pretty much bungled up pretty much every in-game situation in 2015, his “scramble group” approach to winning fourth quarters has bombed, his team is one of the worst defensive units in the league which also happens to go through crippling offensive droughts. At least there’s a glimmer of hope that he’s trying something different. I have no idea what it will yield, likely nothing, but as you watch the games from this point on, let’s see just exactly what Casey will tweak. For a team with six assistant coaches, you hope that something fresh can be produced relatively quickly. And if we see DeMar DeRozan take a 19-footer with 18 on the shot-clock, chances are Casey’s lost the plot.
Funnily enough, season-seat holders have been receiving calls from MLSE reps to renew their tickets for next season at an increased price, and the timing could not have been worse. The same rep that, in response for me asking for a purple jersey had said, “we don’t need to give free stuff anymore, we’re #1 in the league” is now making cold calls.
Right, the game. I’d like to see who defends Dwyane Wade, and I hope it’s DeMar DeRozan. For a guy in his sixth year working under a defensive coach, you’d think he’d have developed some sort of defensive capability by now. On the other end, he’ll probably be guarded by Luol Deng, who has bothered him to no end in the past (as have most lengthy threes), so I’m looking forward to seeing if DeRozan continues to surrender to defenses by taking cringeworthy shots, or recognizes that something different might be in order.
I’m picking the Raps by 7.
