The DeMar DeRozan of a year ago is missing in action.
Long a skeptic of his game, DeMar won me over last year with his ability to get to the line, find a couple mid-range sweet spots, start to work the ball around a little bit more and improve little parts of his game. His role in the team’s offence didn’t seem warranted 3 years ago given his skill set, if the team was ever going to be a playoff threat. But DeMar has clearly proven that he has the most important skill a professional athlete can have: drive.
DeMar’s all around game has visibly improved each and every year of his career. His defense, ball handling, shooting, strength to finish at the rim, patience and vision are all light years ahead of where they were, evidence of the countless hours of work he’s put in. More often than not, that’s what makes the difference between a starter and a bench guy. Talent and ability can only get you so far. Last year DeMar’s years of hard work started to pay off with a word I never thought I’d associate him with: efficiency. Athletic and determined, sure. But adding efficiency to his game got him to the all-star game. If he could improve his handles, allowing him to see more opportunities for teammates, and continue to bring up his 3point percentage, then he was on the path to becoming a truly elite player and bringing the Raptors towards contention.
That DeMar DeRozan has not been seen now for months. Here is what we’ve seen on offense this season instead.
After a summer spent focusing on his 3-point shot a year and a half ago, DeMar’s shooting percentage rose to a career high of 30%. That number is still well below average, especially for his position, but it was a notable improvement on his career numbers on by far the most attempts of his career. The numbers from deep have fallen far back into the abyss though, and at 21% DeMar is having the second worst 3-point shooting season of his career (he shot 9% in his sophomore season, it’s tough to top that one.).
DeMar is getting to the line 6.9 times a game, still a very good number. But last season he was scoring 6.6 free throws a game on 8.0 attempts. It’s only one point a game and one more foul on an opponent per game, but it shows how his style of play has stepped back a little bit from where it was and the direction it was trending.
That’s wherein the problem really lies. DeMar has gone the complete opposite direction from the improvements in style of play that saw him make the all-star team a year ago. 21% is atrocious from 3, and his newfound unwillingness to even attempt from deep has allowed teams to sink right off of him and cheat onto the next pass when the Raptors are swinging the ball around. But DeMar didn’t need a 3point threat to be good and oddly efficient last season. He’s averaging career lows in dunks, something you could attribute to his hip injury and make sense of. There has also been a lack of aggression and willingness to settle for mid range jump shots since the injury that is tougher to make sense of. If he can’t get to the rim, I get it, but that doesn’t mean you’re obligated to take bad shots.
The first two weeks that DeMar came back he compensated for a lack of explosion by being a facilitator. That made him a valuable contributor, winning him valid praise. But that trend has disappeared, replaced by isolation heavy mid-range chucking. This doesn’t make the numbers happy. DeMar is shooting the worst true shooting % of his entire career. He’s attempting a far higher percentage of his shots from 10-16 feet than at any point during his career. Nearly a full quarter (23%) of his attempts come from 10-16 feet, which is bad on principle alone, but even worse when you realize that he’s shooting hands down the worst percentage from 10-16 of his career at 37%. If it seems like DeMar is taking a lot of those bad mid-rangers a game, it’s because he is: about 4 attempts per game. If it seems like he barely scores on them, it’s because he doesn’t: barely more than 1 point per game. DeMar’s shooting percentages have dropped similarly from 16-23 feet (33%). He’s still getting fouled often enough when he does get to the rim, and making his shots (down from 71% a year ago to 64% now) to make that a worthwhile effort, but there hasn’t been anywhere on the floor this season where DeMar taking a jumpshot has been a mathematically sound course of action. He’s averaging a career low in 2pt fg% by a wide margin. He’s taking the largest number of mid-range jumpers in his career, while shooting the worst percentage he’s ever put up on those shots, while consuming the highest usage percentage (28.2%) of his career. All while his assists are down, his free throws are down, his 3-point shot has disappeared and he’s turning the ball over slightly more than he has in past years.
DeMar is hurting the team offensively, to the point where the team is 3.7 points a game better when he’s on the bench. That is not a small problem for a player who is second in minutes per game and first in usage percentage. As long as those two things are true, as goes DeMar, so go the Raptors. His numbers have dropped well below the Rudy Gay iso/efficiency line. It needs to change, because DeMar is capable of being a far more (as in actually) valuable offensive player, and is one of the only players on the team to look good defensively in Coach Casey’s system, where he’s a 3 point net positive on the floor. DeMar’s regression is due in part to shooting percentages and injury, but it has much, much more to do with decision making and shot selection. Shooting your way out of the slump is hurting the team and not working. If your game is limited and you feel like you have to do something to help the team, your 15 foot jump shot is NOT the answer.
