Let’s relive some magic together…
Then this happened.
Sure it wasn’t the last time the Toronto Raptors and Detroit Pistons squared off this season, having played twice since the now infamous James Johnson dunk, but who really remembers the last two games between the two clubs.
December 19 marked a time in the season where Toronto and Detroit could hardly have been further from one another in terms of success. Toronto was flying high and leading the conference with a record of 21-6, while the Pistons were struggling to a disastrous record of 5-22.
Everything seemed to change for the Pistons just a few days later when they waived Josh Smith, choosing to pay him at least $26 million to not play for them again.
The Pistons went on to win their first seven games after waiving Smith, and then stretched this success to win 11 of 13 games. Detroit went from being one of the worst teams in the league to suddenly being in playoff contention (your regular reminder that the bottom of the Eastern Conference generally sucks).
Since this stretch the Pistons have been a team defined by inconsistency, much like Toronto. Detroit seemed to go out of their way to alternate wins and losses before losing 10 in a row, with their last four games looking like this:
March 17, win over the Memphis Grizzlies.
March 18, double digit loss to the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.
March 21, 107-91 blow-out of Chicago.
March 22, overtime victory against Boston.
What the hell can be expected from Detroit these days? They feel like a lesson in randomness.
And that’s good news. As inconsistent as Toronto has been over the past few months, Detroit has been so all the more. Little structure, significant changes from day-to-day, and a roster filled with pieces that don’t fit in obvious ways.
Trading for restricted free agent Reggie Jackson, despite already having money tied up moving forward in the currently injured Brandon Jennings. Relying on the aged and inconsequential Tayshaun Prince despite the youth throughout the rest of the roster. The questionable fit between Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, and the many questions surrounding the impending unrestricted free agency of Monroe after he chose to sign a one year contract last summer.
Key Stats:
- Andre Drummond has been even more dominant on the glass as of late, hauling in 15.5 rebounds per game in the month of March (8.5 defensive, 7 offensive). This is up from his season average of 13.
- Where his rebounding has jumped recently, his already atrocious free throw shooting has somehow been even worse. The month of March has seen Drummond shoot just 32.4 percent from the charity stripe, compared to 38.5 percent on the season. How could he possibly be getting worse??? To put that in perspective, 118 players in the league are shooting a higher percentage from three point range (minimum 2 attempts per game) this month. Despite it making the game uglier to watch, Drummond fully deserves any hack-a-Shaq treatment he receives.
- Reggie Jackson has not been an efficient scorer (41.2 percent from the field, 29.4 percent from three, and just 1.9 free throw attempts per game this month), but he has produced a fairly well rounded game by adding 9 assists (hampered by his 3.4 turnovers) and 4.6 rebounds per game.
- Tayshaun Prince is seeing 24.9 minutes per game this month…24.9!! This makes me sad.
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been showing his potential over the last few games, scoring 15 or more points in his four straight. This includes games in which he scored 20, 24, and 27 respectively.
Keys to Victory:
- Protect the glass. Detroit is the fourth best rebounding team on the season, collecting 45.4 rebounds a game. With the Raptors devoid of any elite individual rebounders like Drummond, this will need to be a complete team effort. Amir and Jonas need to focus on boxing out Monroe and Drummond in particular, while the guards come in for support.
- Get to the line. Toronto averages the fourth highest number of trips to the free throw line, while also being tied for the second best team free throw percentage. In contrast, Detroit commits just 19 fouls per game, the seventh lowest number in the league. Something’s got to give in this respect.
- Don’t underestimate the opponent. The Raptors have a bad habit of too often playing to the level of their opposition. This allows them to match up with teams that are more talented than they are (not so much recently), but also means that inferior teams can get the jump on them. Detroit is a lottery team (putting it kindly), but still need to be respected.
Prediction:
Pistons keep it close early, but Raptors pull away in the second half and walk away with a 9 point victory.
