If you’re of the mind that DeMar DeRozan’s game is limited to the extent that he can’t be built around, Kyle Lowry’s about to get over-the-hill, Jonas Valanciunas won’t turn into the All-Star we were promised, and Terrence Ross is Chris Jefferies in disguise, then you’re probably not very happy and might want to hit the reset button. Except, what is the next reset button, and is there a need to hit one?
A year ago Masai Ujiri tried to hit that switch by trading away Rudy Gay, only for the team to defy all odds and, in a stroke of sheer luck, come out looking better than ever. Plans changed and a team that had admitted it was tanking was now taking a ‘wait and see’ approach. Now, after a year and a half of “seeing what he’s got”, Ujiri is at a crossroads of whether to hit that button again, or go with the flow and tinker the roster with James Johnsensque signings as he did last year. Or does he double-down and go after a big name free-agent (e.g., DeAndre Jordan) and see if that’s what’s missing from his current core.
In a summer where the Celtics, Lakers and Knicks have cap-room, competition for top-tier free-agents will be fierce, and coming off a whimpering first-round exit, the pitch can’t possibly be strong no matter how many #WeTheNorth tags you slap on the PowerPoint deck, and it doesn’t even matter if you have Drake narrate it. So, let’s leave the option of strengthening significantly via free-agency aside for a bit, and talk about that reset button and what it might look like.
Is it trading DeMar DeRozan? Off-loading Kyle Lowry for youth? Or, is it cleaning under the covers by upgrading the likes of Amir Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Greivis Vasquez. Upgrading the bench would certainly improve the team, for example if the Raptors are able to add those elusive veterans that could help build a team spine that doesn’t break at the first sign of pressure. Adding a Paul Pierce-type (not many around), or even a Boris Diawesque player could add some steel to the personality of this team, though I’m yet to be convinced whether that’s the margin between a first-round humiliation and progression in the playoffs (especially in a conference where the Celtics, Pacers, Bucks, and Nets aren’t going away).
You can forget the draft route, the 20th pick isn’t anything to write home about, and is best viewed as trade-filler in a package. Given that they already have Bruno Caboclo and Lucas Nogueira taking up two roster spots and firmly glued to the bench in the name of a half-hearted youth movement, it doesn’t add up that the Raptors would draft a player adding to the backlog of players who don’t get playing time. There’s always a chance where you get a rookie later in the round (e.g., Clint Capela at 25th) who comes in to produce, but the chances are low. Don’t forget, there’s also DeAndre Daniels stashed somewhere in Australia to consider. All in all, you could improve a tad bit via the draft, though it’s unlikely to be the margin between getting whooped in the first round, and charging into the second.
There’s also the development and progression of young talent that seems to elevate teams – Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, these are all examples of teams reaching a higher plateau through organic development rather than frenzied free-agency signings or major trade. The Raptors, no disrespect to their youth (well, some disrespect), don’t appear to have the base talent that time can cultivate into stars. Jonas Valanciunas is in line to be a decent NBA center, DeMar DeRozan will always be considered a good player in the league, and Terrence Ross is in line to be taking a bus from Idaho to Iowa in a couple years. The chances of these guys alone taking the team to the next level, especially under a rigid coach like Dwane Casey, is minimal.
This leaves the trade route the most likely avenue if Masai Ujiri decides to either, blow it all up, or add to what’s here – and what’s here did give result in some memorable moments. I don’t buy the “GMs fear to answer Masai Ujiri’s call in fear of getting fleeced” BS and if you recall, that’s the same type of nonsense that was spewed about Bryan Colangelo way back when. GMs will gladly answer Ujiri’s phone call, except that what he has to say might not interest them.
Let’s get one thing straight – there is nothing Ujiri can do to add a tier 1 player to the team, because to get a tier 1 player, you either have to 1) have your own tier 1 player to deal, or 2) find an unhappy superstar you can acquire for a boatload of assets who is somehow enamoured by your situation (think Dwight Howard to Lakers). Ujiri doesn’t have the former, and there are no latter situations in the league, and even if there were, Toronto would be nowhere at the top of their list because of the state the team is in. It needs to be said that DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, combined with the Raptors state, don’t have the gravitational pull to attract a top tier player.
The likely option here is to do a near-term lateral move to pacify the fans and season seat holders, hoping that it projects to an upward move in a year or two. Examining the roster and seeing what’s missing, you’ll find too many areas that need to be addressed:
Backup center: There’s zero rim-protection or interior defense, even if you move Amir Johnson to the bench and then over to center for a few minutes a game, it’s not enough. Maybe Lucas Noguiera amounts to something next year, though evidence points to the contrary unless his D-League stint is supposed to mean something.
Defense at point guard: Kyle Lowry has regressed into an irresponsible defender whose gambling appears to be endorsed by his coach, and his backup is a guy who takes an hour and a half to shuffle his feet.
Small forward: It says a lot about the state of this position when James Johnson is being hailed as the saviour. Terrence Ross has been a huge disappointment, and can’t be counted on to provide even marginal scoring or defense.
Power forward: Amir Johnson laboured the entire year, and Patrick Patterson, who concedes rebounding, most likely starts next season. This leaves Tyler Hansbrough as the backup PF which is a scary thought.
Backup shooting guard: Lou Williams should be off and if he isn’t, it means our offense will be just as flagrant in the regular season, and choke just as hard in the playoffs, especially under Dwane Casey. Williams’ departure will mean a void in scoring off the bench, and with no offensive system to generate efficient points from arbitrary pieces, Ujiri has to look to fill this void.
Coaching: Dwane Casey was exposed as being inflexible and stubborn during the regular season, and the playoffs only confirmed that view as the “defensive-minded” coach produced the worst defense in the post-season. Him and his staff should be seen as a major obstacle to overcome if this team wants to reach the next level. Either he has to dramatically improve, or he needs to be replaced with someone who can adapt to the changing game, or at least has some idea of how best to implement a system that suits his players, while improving them as individuals.
It’s very unrealistic to think that all these issues can be addressed in one summer, and maybe this is exactly where Ujiri planned to be at this point in his reign. He’s taken good stock of this roster and has a very good understanding of what he has and doesn’t have in his hands, and it’s now time to actually get on that Blackberry Passport and do some real work.
Maybe a shrewder GM wouldn’t have needed a year and a half to come to the conclusions he has now, but let’s afford him the benefit of the doubt, and I for one certainly can’t blame him for halting his tank job once the team starting winning after the Gay trade – it was just too curious of a situation to halt. So far it’s all about riding the wave of one lucky trade, his next moves are what will define him as a GM.
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy, USA TODAY Sports
